I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
Well, well. Mr Johnson must be really worried about indyref2.
I would love to think that he was doing it because it was the right thing to do. But as soon a I have the thought I start scolding myself for being so naive.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
In non-Covid/Brexit "news". I am using Mrs RP doing other things for a pre-Christmas Bond film. A View to a Kill was the next one in line. I have a sad affection for the John Glen movies, absurd as an increasingly aged Bond looked as he battled baddies and arthritis to pull girls younger than his own daughter.
Glorious fun of the kind that the current franchise doesn't seem to understand.
It did have Christopher Walken playing a psychopath - that man could chew scenery with such gusto.
Part of the tension in the recent version of Man On Fire is that you have Walken playing an ex-black ops guy whose friend gets in to trouble. You spend most of the film waiting for Walken to fire up his inner Zorin and start slaughtering....
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
Didn't Ireland's GDP go up by something like 10% recently because of something to do with plane leasing?
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
Ireland is one of the best examples if you want to explain the difference between GDP and GNP.
Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses
Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.
It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
Do you think there's a chance of polarisation on constitutional lines happening? Abolish the parliament versus independence.
No. Because only a few fruitcakes on either side in Wales want either option. The question in constitutional terms is more powers first vs. competent governance first. But that frankly is a secondary issue to the problems in public services, rampant corruption and a fragile, unstable economy.
You have certainly given a very accurate diagnosis of endemic and intractable problems facing Wales in that last line.
The question is whether any of those problems are related to Wales' constitutional status.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
Why is that ? Why has an independent Ireland prospered mightily, whereas a Wales tied to Westminster become more and more impoverished ?
And is the pauperization of Wales related to the behaviour of the Westminster parties ?
No. And no. The problem in Wales is simple. It relied for its brief burst of prosperity on extraction of natural resources and heavy industry from that. The former became impracticable and the latter then became uneconomic (although Wales still does of course have a large steel industry).
When these went, its location and geographic limitations (being bloody hilly makes transport hard) made it unattractive to investment. That is despite the fact that a very great deal of hard work was put in by the then Tory government (working, uncharacteristically, with the unions) to try and persuade major firms to set up shop there.
That would (and did) happen regardless of who was in charge. Ireland, meanwhile, on the main route between Europe and America with strong links to both was able to prosper.
Does that mean it will always be this way? No. In an age when renewable energy is king, Wales, as one vast potential power station, could easily come into its own again.
But that DOES - to contradict myself - depend on half decent public services and a stable political and governmental system, which right now it hasn’t got.
There is a reason why there are so very few Welsh Americans, but there are many more Scottish Americans and many, many more Irish Americans.
Immigration is a sign that a country is poor, that the indigenous population cannot survive in its native land, that people see better economic prospects and greater prosperity elsewhere.
For much of recent history -- not just "a brief burst" -- Wales was MORE prosperous than Scotland and Ireland.
There was a time when Glamorgan was the richest county in England & Wales & Scotland. It was richer than Surrey and richer than Hampshire.
Wales has been made poor by the Westminster governments -- and the endless draining of resources from these islands to the great, selfish, wheedling, caterwauling, monster that is London & the South East of England.
Wales is a colony. Colonial economies are not run to make the indigenous population wealthy. The economy is run to make outsiders rich. That is e.g., why the Welsh economy has seen little benefit from the numerous wind-farms or renewables. There will be no great renaissance from greening the Welsh economy as long as the current regime persists.
The Republic of Ireland is becoming wealthier because it -- admittedly -- is a corporate tax haven.
The RoI has the freedom to undercut the corporation tax of neighbouring countries because it is independent. As long as the money from the US corporations is invested to reduce such dependence long term, as long as it is invested in the education of the population and in its public service infrastructure, I have no great problem with what the RoI is doing.
In fact, I'd be far, far happier with Wales following the path of the RoI than being a crying, cringing, abominable hyena, whining at the ashcans for another titbit from London.
You make a convincing argument.
I'm a firm believer in self determination. I don't see much evidence the Welsh want to take responsibility for themselves so I can imagine us in the future if the Scots and NI go having a country like the Cricket 🏏 team - officially England and Wales but people just say England most of the time.
If the Welsh did decide to move on from England I'd be surprised but have no sadness.
Much as I oppose Scottish independence and Irish unity, Scotland an Northern Ireland at least have the argument they voted Remain while England voted Leave, Wales voted Leave just like England so has no complaints as far as Brexit is concerned.
Wales also could not survive as a prosperous economy outside both the UK and the EU, it has no major financial services industry or oil industry for starters
"**** business", your Prime Minister famosly said. It would do better independent from control by such a mentality.
No evidence it did and still he is far better for business than the over regulating, over taxing Sturgeon
The UK position doesn't look as unusual anymore. Perhaps other countries have been revising up their tallies recently.
Someone on here posted months ago that all major developed countries would likely end up in a smiliar space.
If so, Germany is about to have a very torrid time.
And things are due to get a bit better in Italy and Belgium? I will believe when I see it. Italy in particular is having a very difficult time.
I suspect that some of the "dry timber" that was lost in the UK and many other western countries in the spring but protected in the likes of Germany have been exposed this time around.
If you want a terrifying public information campaign check out Victoria's TAC anti drink driving campaign. I grew up watching these and they absolutely pull no punches. Ran heavily over Christmas period especially.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
Ireland is one of the best examples if you want to explain the difference between GDP and GNP.
Is GNP the same as GNI?
Ireland's GNI per capita is still 50% higher than the UK's
The UK position doesn't look as unusual anymore. Perhaps other countries have been revising up their tallies recently.
Someone on here posted months ago that all major developed countries would likely end up in a smiliar space.
If so, Germany is about to have a very torrid time.
And things are due to get a bit better in Italy and Belgium? I will believe when I see it. Italy in particular is having a very difficult time.
I suspect that some of the "dry timber" that was lost in the UK and many other western countries in the spring but protected in the likes of Germany have been exposed this time around.
Italy have announced 846 deaths today (528 last Tuesday). This is odd considering that cases have steadily declined over the last month. I guess there may be some extra deaths added into today's total.
I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
The prevention paradoxon in action. The less damage incurred during the first wave, the less vigilant you may become (relatively) in the second one. Our serious lockdown (tomorrow) is a couple of months late.
I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
The prevention paradoxon in action. The less damage incurred during the first wave, the less vigilant you may become (relatively) in the second one. Our serious lockdown (tomorrow) is a couple of months late.
Yes I think so, while the UK has suffered from idiots in charge who can't organise a piss up in a brewery. You should be thankful Germany has competent people at the top.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The UK position doesn't look as unusual anymore. Perhaps other countries have been revising up their tallies recently.
Someone on here posted months ago that all major developed countries would likely end up in a smiliar space.
If so, Germany is about to have a very torrid time.
And things are due to get a bit better in Italy and Belgium? I will believe when I see it. Italy in particular is having a very difficult time.
I suspect that some of the "dry timber" that was lost in the UK and many other western countries in the spring but protected in the likes of Germany have been exposed this time around.
Italy, Spain, the UK and France are all currently around the 1,000 deaths per million mark +-10%.
Belgium is definitely in a different space (1,555 death per million) currently, not sure why - was there something about the way deaths are recorded in Belgium being different?
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
One thing that has stayed constant throught this pandemic is the degree of chicken counting from every corner of the globe.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
Ireland is one of the best examples if you want to explain the difference between GDP and GNP.
2017 GDP per head (EU28=100)
Luxemburg 253 Ireland 181 Germany 124 UK 105 France 104 Italy 96 Spain 92 Poland 70
2017 Consumption per head (EU28=100)
Luxemburg 132 Germany 122 UK 114 France 108 Italy 98 Ireland 93 Spain 89 Poland 76
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
The prevention paradoxon in action. The less damage incurred during the first wave, the less vigilant you may become (relatively) in the second one. Our serious lockdown (tomorrow) is a couple of months late.
Yes I think so, while the UK has suffered from idiots in charge who can't organise a piss up in a brewery. You should be thankful Germany has competent people at the top.
I would agree that our leadership has proven a little bit more competent overall, but the delay of the real, serious lockdown shows that our federalist system can sometimes be a disadvantage. The prevarication we are currently suffering from, was a result of the powerplay between the minister presidents (and their governmnets) in the Bundesländer. Those of a more lockdown-sceptic inclination have slowed down the reaction of the whole system.
I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
Bosnia Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaris, Armenia, Croatia, Moldov, and Poland...
All have death rates in the range 600 to 1,100 per million, so I am not sure there is much of an Eastern European pattern tbh.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
In Leicester, our second wave* is worse than the first in terms of admissions.
Two observations: 1. Putin looks bored, tired and old. 2. His office is really crap.
It's been 20 years, he should just go full Tsar already, you know he wants to.
Are his children active in politics?
Wikipedia says one of his chidlren is a pediatric endochrinologist and 'is credited to be Putin's advisor in genetic engineering, especially in the usage of CRISPR to create genetically-engineered babies.' Yikes. The other is statedto be an acrobatic rock'n'roll dancer, and a billionaire. And apparently was 'appointed head of a new artificial intelligence institute at Moscow State University'.
Multi talented group. Never too late to introduce them into politics, and Bashar Al Assad had been an optometrist, so it's easy to make a switch.
But maybe he'll go more Roman Emperor - he can adopt Medvedev as his son.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I think it's a mixed picture. For some countries the second wave seems to be over, or at least approaching it. Those countries better prepare for the third one. I agree that it will take probably a year until the vaccination is making a substantial impact.
On the effect of lockdown measures, I do agree that compliance has declined. Which means you have to demand more than the last time to achieve the same result.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
Didn't Ireland's GDP go up by something like 10% recently because of something to do with plane leasing?
I can't remember if it was plane leasing, but it effectively added a chunk to the capital stock of Ireland PLC increasing GDP by some massive number.
As @DavidL points out, Ireland is a great example of the difference between GNP and GDP.
I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
Bosnia Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaris, Armenia, Croatia, Moldov, and Poland...
All have death rates in the range 600 to 1,100 per million, so I am not sure there is much of an Eastern European pattern tbh.
They're getting many more deaths now than they did in the spring:
Scotland nearly four times as bad as the UK as a whole, which actually means that about a third of the UK's deaths are Scottish, and that therefore Scotland is six times as bad as the rest of the UK. Utterly depressing indeed.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I don't think it's just that, it's also the fact that when CV19 wave one hit, spring was just beginning, and people were naturally spending more time outside. (It was the most fortuitous of all the times for an infectious disease to hit). This time, it's smacking us at a time when our amount of inside time is still increasing. Most countries have also - in the second wave - attempted to keep schools open. (Germany did not close theirs in the second wave, and that will have had a big impact.)
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
Also we have about 20% more inhabitants than the UK does.
Two observations: 1. Putin looks bored, tired and old. 2. His office is really crap.
It's been 20 years, he should just go full Tsar already, you know he wants to.
Are his children active in politics?
Wikipedia says one of his chidlren is a pediatric endochrinologist and 'is credited to be Putin's advisor in genetic engineering, especially in the usage of CRISPR to create genetically-engineered babies.' Yikes. The other is statedto be an acrobatic rock'n'roll dancer, and a billionaire. And apparently was 'appointed head of a new artificial intelligence institute at Moscow State University'.
Multi talented group. Never too late to introduce them into politics, and Bashar Al Assad had been an optometrist, so it's easy to make a switch.
But maybe he'll go more Roman Emperor - he can adopt Medvedev as his son.
Apparently he's also just had twin sons to his "secret" mistress
Does anyone know what the figures for England, Wales are NI are?
It says in that piece that the Scottish figure is more than 3.5x that of England and Wales. Which I must say I find bewildering.
Scotland does seem to be disasterously bad but plotting the numbers against each country's mean geographic latitude would produce a strong correlation interestingly.
Is there a (lack of) vitamin D contributor? Or is life just tough up north?
Scotland nearly four times as bad as the UK as a whole, which actually means that about a third of the UK's deaths are Scottish, and that therefore Scotland is six times as bad as the rest of the UK. Utterly depressing indeed.
In Scotland it is any death which might have drugs associated with it - and coroners or inquests are not involved (ie no opportunity for the family barrister or jury to pass a 'compassionate' verdict). So it tends to err on the inclusive side compared to some other countries. Still, I don't think that explains more than a fraction of the difference.
It doesn't seem to explain why Scotland is doing so much worse than anyone, even if other places are undercounting.
No. A lot of the deaths seem to go back to the trainspotting generation who first got addicted in the late 80's and 90's whose bodies are now giving out.
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I think it's a mixed picture. For some countries the second wave seems to be over, or at least approaching it. Those countries better prepare for the third one. I agree that it will take probably a year until the vaccination is making a substantial impact.
On the effect of lockdown measures, I do agree that compliance has declined. Which means you have to demand more than the last time to achieve the same result.
Its impossible to demand more as in the spring the schools were shut.
And now the young know they are at sod all risk as well.
So we are well into the law of diminishing marginal lockdown returns.
Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses
Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.
It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
Do you think there's a chance of polarisation on constitutional lines happening? Abolish the parliament versus independence.
No. Because only a few fruitcakes on either side in Wales want either option. The question in constitutional terms is more powers first vs. competent governance first. But that frankly is a secondary issue to the problems in public services, rampant corruption and a fragile, unstable economy.
You have certainly given a very accurate diagnosis of endemic and intractable problems facing Wales in that last line.
The question is whether any of those problems are related to Wales' constitutional status.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
Why is that ? Why has an independent Ireland prospered mightily, whereas a Wales tied to Westminster become more and more impoverished ?
And is the pauperization of Wales related to the behaviour of the Westminster parties ?
No. And no. The problem in Wales is simple. It relied for its brief burst of prosperity on extraction of natural resources and heavy industry from that. The former became impracticable and the latter then became uneconomic (although Wales still does of course have a large steel industry).
When these went, its location and geographic limitations (being bloody hilly makes transport hard) made it unattractive to investment. That is despite the fact that a very great deal of hard work was put in by the then Tory government (working, uncharacteristically, with the unions) to try and persuade major firms to set up shop there.
That would (and did) happen regardless of who was in charge. Ireland, meanwhile, on the main route between Europe and America with strong links to both was able to prosper.
Does that mean it will always be this way? No. In an age when renewable energy is king, Wales, as one vast potential power station, could easily come into its own again.
But that DOES - to contradict myself - depend on half decent public services and a stable political and governmental system, which right now it hasn’t got.
There is a reason why there are so very few Welsh Americans, but there are many more Scottish Americans and many, many more Irish Americans.
Immigration is a sign that a country is poor, that the indigenous population cannot survive in its native land, that people see better economic prospects and greater prosperity elsewhere.
For much of recent history -- not just "a brief burst" -- Wales was MORE prosperous than Scotland and Ireland.
There was a time when Glamorgan was the richest county in England & Wales & Scotland. It was richer than Surrey and richer than Hampshire.
Wales has been made poor by the Westminster governments -- and the endless draining of resources from these islands to the great, selfish, wheedling, caterwauling, monster that is London & the South East of England.
Wales is a colony. Colonial economies are not run to make the indigenous population wealthy. The economy is run to make outsiders rich. That is e.g., why the Welsh economy has seen little benefit from the numerous wind-farms or renewables. There will be no great renaissance from greening the Welsh economy as long as the current regime persists.
The Republic of Ireland is becoming wealthier because it -- admittedly -- is a corporate tax haven.
The RoI has the freedom to undercut the corporation tax of neighbouring countries because it is independent. As long as the money from the US corporations is invested to reduce such dependence long term, as long as it is invested in the education of the population and in its public service infrastructure, I have no great problem with what the RoI is doing.
In fact, I'd be far, far happier with Wales following the path of the RoI than being a crying, cringing, abominable hyena, whining at the ashcans for another titbit from London.
I think the problems started for Wales when people were allowed to go on European ski holidays. With strong leadership (and the banning of ski holidays) prosperity will be restored to Wales.
The problems started for everyone when people were allowed to go on European ski holidays,
Everyone is so white, so rich, so upper middle-class ... so diverse.
And the bloody skiiers caused Patient Zero in a dozen European countries with their stupid, whiny holidays.
We should bill the cost of the pandemic to every last wanker who went skiing in the Winter & Spring last year.
Does anyone know what the figures for England, Wales are NI are?
It says in that piece that the Scottish figure is more than 3.5x that of England and Wales. Which I must say I find bewildering.
Scotland does seem to be disasterously bad but plotting the numbers against each country's mean geographic latitude would produce a strong correlation interestingly.
Is there a (lack of) vitamin D contributor? Or is life just tough up north?
Yep, all the Scandinavian countries near the top. But they're mostly north of Scotland ...
Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses
Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.
It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
Do you think there's a chance of polarisation on constitutional lines happening? Abolish the parliament versus independence.
No. Because only a few fruitcakes on either side in Wales want either option. The question in constitutional terms is more powers first vs. competent governance first. But that frankly is a secondary issue to the problems in public services, rampant corruption and a fragile, unstable economy.
You have certainly given a very accurate diagnosis of endemic and intractable problems facing Wales in that last line.
The question is whether any of those problems are related to Wales' constitutional status.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
Why is that ? Why has an independent Ireland prospered mightily, whereas a Wales tied to Westminster become more and more impoverished ?
And is the pauperization of Wales related to the behaviour of the Westminster parties ?
No. And no. The problem in Wales is simple. It relied for its brief burst of prosperity on extraction of natural resources and heavy industry from that. The former became impracticable and the latter then became uneconomic (although Wales still does of course have a large steel industry).
When these went, its location and geographic limitations (being bloody hilly makes transport hard) made it unattractive to investment. That is despite the fact that a very great deal of hard work was put in by the then Tory government (working, uncharacteristically, with the unions) to try and persuade major firms to set up shop there.
That would (and did) happen regardless of who was in charge. Ireland, meanwhile, on the main route between Europe and America with strong links to both was able to prosper.
Does that mean it will always be this way? No. In an age when renewable energy is king, Wales, as one vast potential power station, could easily come into its own again.
But that DOES - to contradict myself - depend on half decent public services and a stable political and governmental system, which right now it hasn’t got.
There is a reason why there are so very few Welsh Americans, but there are many more Scottish Americans and many, many more Irish Americans.
Immigration is a sign that a country is poor, that the indigenous population cannot survive in its native land, that people see better economic prospects and greater prosperity elsewhere.
For much of recent history -- not just "a brief burst" -- Wales was MORE prosperous than Scotland and Ireland.
There was a time when Glamorgan was the richest county in England & Wales & Scotland. It was richer than Surrey and richer than Hampshire.
Wales has been made poor by the Westminster governments -- and the endless draining of resources from these islands to the great, selfish, wheedling, caterwauling, monster that is London & the South East of England.
Wales is a colony. Colonial economies are not run to make the indigenous population wealthy. The economy is run to make outsiders rich. That is e.g., why the Welsh economy has seen little benefit from the numerous wind-farms or renewables. There will be no great renaissance from greening the Welsh economy as long as the current regime persists.
The Republic of Ireland is becoming wealthier because it -- admittedly -- is a corporate tax haven.
The RoI has the freedom to undercut the corporation tax of neighbouring countries because it is independent. As long as the money from the US corporations is invested to reduce such dependence long term, as long as it is invested in the education of the population and in its public service infrastructure, I have no great problem with what the RoI is doing.
In fact, I'd be far, far happier with Wales following the path of the RoI than being a crying, cringing, abominable hyena, whining at the ashcans for another titbit from London.
You make a convincing argument.
I'm a firm believer in self determination. I don't see much evidence the Welsh want to take responsibility for themselves so I can imagine us in the future if the Scots and NI go having a country like the Cricket 🏏 team - officially England and Wales but people just say England most of the time.
If the Welsh did decide to move on from England I'd be surprised but have no sadness.
Much as I oppose Scottish independence and Irish unity, Scotland an Northern Ireland at least have the argument they voted Remain while England voted Leave, Wales voted Leave just like England so has no complaints as far as Brexit is concerned.
Wales also could not survive as a prosperous economy outside both the UK and the EU, it has no major financial services industry or oil industry for starters
"**** business", your Prime Minister famosly said. It would do better independent from control by such a mentality.
No evidence it did and still he is far better for business than the over regulating, over taxing Sturgeon
Just look at what every single business organizatiuon has to say about Brexit and your incompetent party pretending to run the UK.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
Also we have about 20% more inhabitants than the UK does.
Yes, and when you use the ONS numbers you have to add another 20k to the UK's tally, of course.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I don't think it's just that, it's also the fact that when CV19 wave one hit, spring was just beginning, and people were naturally spending more time outside. (It was the most fortuitous of all the times for an infectious disease to hit). This time, it's smacking us at a time when our amount of inside time is still increasing. Most countries have also - in the second wave - attempted to keep schools open. (Germany did not close theirs in the second wave, and that will have had a big impact.)
"It was the most fortuitous of all the times for an infectious disease to hit" not really, it explains why it was high in March and April, and then was brought under control in May and June. The most fortuitous of times would have been it coming to Europe in April rather than February when it would wtill have spread, but at much lower levels.
It doesn't seem to explain why Scotland is doing so much worse than anyone, even if other places are undercounting.
No. A lot of the deaths seem to go back to the trainspotting generation who first got addicted in the late 80's and 90's whose bodies are now giving out.
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
There is some interesting work in Glasgow, but the UK government is being pretty reactionary and has got into a fight with the Scottish Gmt over what can and can't be permitted, which has rather distracted matters from what I can see.
If you want a terrifying public information campaign check out Victoria's TAC anti drink driving campaign. I grew up watching these and they absolutely pull no punches. Ran heavily over Christmas period especially.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I don't think it's just that, it's also the fact that when CV19 wave one hit, spring was just beginning, and people were naturally spending more time outside. (It was the most fortuitous of all the times for an infectious disease to hit). This time, it's smacking us at a time when our amount of inside time is still increasing. Most countries have also - in the second wave - attempted to keep schools open. (Germany did not close theirs in the second wave, and that will have had a big impact.)
I think that is exactly right and I also think that is why the Government's modelling presupposes that the worst will very much be over by the end of March. Not only should vaccines (hopefully) have started taking an effect by then but also the weather will be improving (but in this country who can say). Not only will vaccines bring matters under control but the ability to socialise outside will undoubtedly help too.
Not only do you have to model the virus but also human behaviour. It's all very well berating the populace as being idiots to a man (or woman) but it misses the point that, as a group, human behaviour can be modelled. There has been precious little of that so far as I can see. We put a lot of store by the social science that studies how people interact with value (economics) but regard the social sciences that model how we interact with one another, like anthropology, social phsychology and sociology (the latter discipline being best known as being the butt of a joke in the 80s Maureen Lipman BT advert) as being slightly suspect lefty crap. Which is baffling to me.
It doesn't seem to explain why Scotland is doing so much worse than anyone, even if other places are undercounting.
No. A lot of the deaths seem to go back to the trainspotting generation who first got addicted in the late 80's and 90's whose bodies are now giving out.
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
There is some interesting work in Glasgow, but the UK government is being pretty reactionary and has got into a fight with the Scottish Gmt over what can and can't be permitted, which has rather distracted matters from what I can see.
It's weird in that what the Scot Gov is proposing that is outside its powers I broadly agree with but what they are doing with the powers they have I broadly disagree with.
I agree wit @DavidL though that the Portugal model is by far the most sensible of the options available.
Does anyone know what the figures for England, Wales are NI are?
It says in that piece that the Scottish figure is more than 3.5x that of England and Wales. Which I must say I find bewildering.
Scotland does seem to be disasterously bad but plotting the numbers against each country's mean geographic latitude would produce a strong correlation interestingly.
Is there a (lack of) vitamin D contributor? Or is life just tough up north?
Vitamin D deficiency is extremely common in Scotland and can cause a number of health issues including depression. I fear that a lot of drug use and overdoses are driven by the shockingly poor state of our mental health services which result in "self medication" for those who find life too hard to face.
An anecdotal example is a man who one of my daughters knew who left a locked ward in early February. In November, whilst still waiting for his follow up appointment, he threw himself off a building. He was using drugs and will no doubt be in this year's statistics.
Its a highly negative circle. There is a great reluctance in the NHS to treat "druggies" and yet the Venn diagram of those with mental health and drug problems is very close to total overlap.
Na, they did so well in the first wave that being slightly worse than that is still very good.
Still a shock to German self-confidence.
To a degree, but to keep things in perspective, our second wave (13k) has exceeded our first wave (9k), but is still less than your second wave (~25k) or your first one (~40k).
The European second wave is far from over. In terms of the death rate the vaccine roll out is going to be the biggest factor in getting it under control, it's clear that lockdowns are losing their effectiveness across all European countries, people have just had enough of living half lives, especially around this time of year when they are out with their friends and family.
I don't think it's just that, it's also the fact that when CV19 wave one hit, spring was just beginning, and people were naturally spending more time outside. (It was the most fortuitous of all the times for an infectious disease to hit). This time, it's smacking us at a time when our amount of inside time is still increasing. Most countries have also - in the second wave - attempted to keep schools open. (Germany did not close theirs in the second wave, and that will have had a big impact.)
"It was the most fortuitous of all the times for an infectious disease to hit" not really, it explains why it was high in March and April, and then was brought under control in May and June. The most fortuitous of times would have been it coming to Europe in April rather than February when it would wtill have spread, but at much lower levels.
Aren't the Italians now saying it came in November? Possibly the worst time and place. Into a skiing area in time for the season. Spread to the reasonably healthy and wealthy, who seeded it across Europe unnoticed during the darkest, coldest months when everyone was indoors and unaware.
It doesn't seem to explain why Scotland is doing so much worse than anyone, even if other places are undercounting.
No. A lot of the deaths seem to go back to the trainspotting generation who first got addicted in the late 80's and 90's whose bodies are now giving out.
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
I wonder how muich is complications of hepatitis, HIV etc. There was a shop in the Pubic Triangle area of Edinburgh which sold clean needles but a Chief Constable insisted that it be closed down about that sort of time, with predictable results.
I see Germany has passed 800 deaths announced today compared with 16,258 cases three weeks earlier. Last Tuesday they announced 622 deaths compared with 16,206 cases three weeks before. I wonder just how bad things are going to get there over the next few weeks.
Germany has more followed the Eastern European pattern rather than the Western European pattern for covid.
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
Kind of, but I think Germany is a bit different: it had early cases and outbreaks, but there was enough testing happening to keep it low until lockdown. Many Eastern European countries didn't get cases until weeks later when things were already being locked down. And then summer started coming.
I don't see a great display of competence by the German government, though some of the shambles seen sometimes in the UK was avoided. And at least people weren't forever claiming everything was "world-beating" even when it looked like Germany was doing a bit better than some its neighbours.
The big early testing capacity was a natural consequence of the very decentralised health system. I expect the more centralised NHS to do a better job of getting millions of people vaccinated, because it's something where a piecemeal approach isn't going to work so well. If so, people might start asking questions about aspects of how health is organised here.
It doesn't seem to explain why Scotland is doing so much worse than anyone, even if other places are undercounting.
No. A lot of the deaths seem to go back to the trainspotting generation who first got addicted in the late 80's and 90's whose bodies are now giving out.
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
There is some interesting work in Glasgow, but the UK government is being pretty reactionary and has got into a fight with the Scottish Gmt over what can and can't be permitted, which has rather distracted matters from what I can see.
I think the Scottish government/SNP have been pretty weedy on this. They should really be pushing the constitutional envelope and acting unilaterally when they think it necessary, telling HMG to foxtrot oscar when push comes to shove. As DavidL suggests, 2/3 of last year’s deaths were men aged 35-55; if nothing else it’s a big clue on who they should be targeting.
More convinced than ever tonight that a prolonged lockdown is coming shortly after Christmas. Seems virtually inevitable. I would expect something akin to April plus schools until at least mid-February, and it might drag on all the way to Easter.
Most of the medical profession already appears to be in a state of complete panic over the Christmas break, and no wonder. Covid has been going on for nearly a year now and everybody has had more than enough of it. I've heard it suggested that the decline in cases started to level off halfway through the second lockdown as adherence waned; there will be more than enough people who will ignore the Government's rules altogether to guarantee a massive spike in transmission over Christmas and a deluge of new patients swamping the healthcare system early in the New Year.
The authorities face a complete no-win scenario here. If they stick with their Christmas plans then they'll be blamed for the consequences; however, if they attempt to cancel Christmas then it might help to reduce the height of the January tsunami wave a little, but it won't stop it because of a combination of lack of compliance and the extreme contagiousness of the virus. When Lockdown 3.0 inevitably commences, the people who didn't bother to follow the rules over Christmas will feel vindicated, those who did will feel like mugs, and an awful lot of people (perhaps a majority) will conclude that all these restrictions aren't worth the paper they're printed on, and come both to resent and to increasingly disregard them.
The most frightened and those with the means to do so will do their best to shield given their circumstances; it'll go like a dose of salts through the rest of the population.
The only thing, in the end, that will finally stop this disease in its tracks is widespread immunisation and warm weather, and neither of those is going to be forthcoming until April at the earliest. The first three months of 2021 are going to be worse than 2020, as the hospitals buckle under the strain and mass unemployment arrives with the final closure of thousands and thousands of forcibly shuttered businesses. It's going to be absolutely bloody terrible.
Still, silver linings: who gives a flying fuck about Brexit anymore? Certainly not me.
It doesn't seem to explain why Scotland is doing so much worse than anyone, even if other places are undercounting.
No. A lot of the deaths seem to go back to the trainspotting generation who first got addicted in the late 80's and 90's whose bodies are now giving out.
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
I wonder how muich is complications of hepatitis, HIV etc. There was a shop in the Pubic Triangle area of Edinburgh which sold clean needles but a Chief Constable insisted that it be closed down about that sort of time, with predictable results.
PS Memmory may be wrong, on checking - shop may have closed for other reasons, but the polis certainly were not happy about it.
Comments
So mildly hit in the spring but much harder, perhaps exacerbated by complacency, in the autumn.
In the 1960s, Welsh GDP was twice that of the Republic of Ireland. Now in the 2020s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland is four times that of Wales.
You know, that's true of practically everywhere. And it's also a bit misleading.
For a start, Irish GDP contains a lot of Euros/Pounds/Dollars that doesn't go anywhere near real people. Pharmaceutical companies routing pills through Ireland boosts GDP but does very little for the man on a bus in Kerry. (Irish GDP is now almost TWICE that of the UK on a per capita basis -$42k vs $78k.)
Part of the tension in the recent version of Man On Fire is that you have Walken playing an ex-black ops guy whose friend gets in to trouble. You spend most of the film waiting for Walken to fire up his inner Zorin and start slaughtering....
What's a 'bilateral visit' as opposed to a, er... visit?
Maybe he just a really boring bureaucrat at heart.
PS If anyone's asking, my real name is Annie Nonimous and I live in Borchester.
Someone on here posted months ago that all major developed countries would likely end up in a smiliar space.
If so, Germany is about to have a very torrid time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55273817
I suspect that some of the "dry timber" that was lost in the UK and many other western countries in the spring but protected in the likes of Germany have been exposed this time around.
If you want a terrifying public information campaign check out Victoria's TAC anti drink driving campaign. I grew up watching these and they absolutely pull no punches. Ran heavily over Christmas period especially.
https://youtu.be/Z2mf8DtWWd8
I still get chills from John Lennon's Happy Christmas (war is over) from this ad campaign when I was 15:
https://youtu.be/_cP5IMefEm8
Ireland's GNI per capita is still 50% higher than the UK's
Based on a sample size of two, being named Donald Trump is sufficient evidence for the machines to judge them untrustworthy.
Belgium is definitely in a different space (1,555 death per million) currently, not sure why - was there something about the way deaths are recorded in Belgium being different?
https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1338851758198677504
Luxemburg 253
Ireland 181
Germany 124
UK 105
France 104
Italy 96
Spain 92
Poland 70
2017 Consumption per head (EU28=100)
Luxemburg 132
Germany 122
UK 114
France 108
Italy 98
Ireland 93
Spain 89
Poland 76
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/2018#:~:text=1.,, Germany, Austria and Denmark.
The worst in Europe and getting worse still.
Bosnia Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaris, Armenia, Croatia, Moldov, and Poland...
All have death rates in the range 600 to 1,100 per million, so I am not sure there is much of an Eastern European pattern tbh.
*arguably we are on our third...
Multi talented group. Never too late to introduce them into politics, and Bashar Al Assad had been an optometrist, so it's easy to make a switch.
But maybe he'll go more Roman Emperor - he can adopt Medvedev as his son.
Does anyone know what the figures for England, Wales are NI are?
On the effect of lockdown measures, I do agree that compliance has declined. Which means you have to demand more than the last time to achieve the same result.
As @DavidL points out, Ireland is a great example of the difference between GNP and GDP.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/macedonia/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bosnia-and-herzegovina/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/slovenia/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/hungary/
Is there a (lack of) vitamin D contributor? Or is life just tough up north?
We really desperately need to try something else and the Portugal model looks the most promising.
And now the young know they are at sod all risk as well.
So we are well into the law of diminishing marginal lockdown returns.
Everyone is so white, so rich, so upper middle-class ... so diverse.
And the bloody skiiers caused Patient Zero in a dozen European countries with their stupid, whiny holidays.
We should bill the cost of the pandemic to every last wanker who went skiing in the Winter & Spring last year.
Personally I think he is looking really glum because his office is so crap. It looks like the inside of a Portakabin to me.
But watch out for lockdown 3.0 starting 28 Dec, will be announced 21 Dec. London rate will be up to 500/100,000 7 day rate by then
This one stuck in my mind for years;
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J5PuYLHFtWI
Here are the rules. Please ignore them and follow the advice.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1338871862315667456?s=20
Not only do you have to model the virus but also human behaviour. It's all very well berating the populace as being idiots to a man (or woman) but it misses the point that, as a group, human behaviour can be modelled. There has been precious little of that so far as I can see. We put a lot of store by the social science that studies how people interact with value (economics) but regard the social sciences that model how we interact with one another, like anthropology, social phsychology and sociology (the latter discipline being best known as being the butt of a joke in the 80s Maureen Lipman BT advert) as being slightly suspect lefty crap. Which is baffling to me.
I agree wit @DavidL though that the Portugal model is by far the most sensible of the options available.
An anecdotal example is a man who one of my daughters knew who left a locked ward in early February. In November, whilst still waiting for his follow up appointment, he threw himself off a building. He was using drugs and will no doubt be in this year's statistics.
Its a highly negative circle. There is a great reluctance in the NHS to treat "druggies" and yet the Venn diagram of those with mental health and drug problems is very close to total overlap.
Possibly the worst time and place.
Into a skiing area in time for the season. Spread to the reasonably healthy and wealthy, who seeded it across Europe unnoticed during the darkest, coldest months when everyone was indoors and unaware.
I don't see a great display of competence by the German government, though some of the shambles seen sometimes in the UK was avoided. And at least people weren't forever claiming everything was "world-beating" even when it looked like Germany was doing a bit better than some its neighbours.
The big early testing capacity was a natural consequence of the very decentralised health system.
I expect the more centralised NHS to do a better job of getting millions of people vaccinated, because it's something where a piecemeal approach isn't going to work so well. If so, people might start asking questions about aspects of how health is organised here.
Most of the medical profession already appears to be in a state of complete panic over the Christmas break, and no wonder. Covid has been going on for nearly a year now and everybody has had more than enough of it. I've heard it suggested that the decline in cases started to level off halfway through the second lockdown as adherence waned; there will be more than enough people who will ignore the Government's rules altogether to guarantee a massive spike in transmission over Christmas and a deluge of new patients swamping the healthcare system early in the New Year.
The authorities face a complete no-win scenario here. If they stick with their Christmas plans then they'll be blamed for the consequences; however, if they attempt to cancel Christmas then it might help to reduce the height of the January tsunami wave a little, but it won't stop it because of a combination of lack of compliance and the extreme contagiousness of the virus. When Lockdown 3.0 inevitably commences, the people who didn't bother to follow the rules over Christmas will feel vindicated, those who did will feel like mugs, and an awful lot of people (perhaps a majority) will conclude that all these restrictions aren't worth the paper they're printed on, and come both to resent and to increasingly disregard them.
The most frightened and those with the means to do so will do their best to shield given their circumstances; it'll go like a dose of salts through the rest of the population.
The only thing, in the end, that will finally stop this disease in its tracks is widespread immunisation and warm weather, and neither of those is going to be forthcoming until April at the earliest. The first three months of 2021 are going to be worse than 2020, as the hospitals buckle under the strain and mass unemployment arrives with the final closure of thousands and thousands of forcibly shuttered businesses. It's going to be absolutely bloody terrible.
Still, silver linings: who gives a flying fuck about Brexit anymore? Certainly not me.
Edit: Minutes after posting the Sun shows its front page and its all about Johnson saving xmas.
Unbe-bloody-believable.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1338970921202315266/photo/1
Does anyone? Hand on heart honestly give a shit what newspapers months ago said?
We have a vaccine now. Getting the virus now is like going over the top in autumn 1918.