Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Punters remain confident that there will be a deal – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited December 2020 in General
imagePunters remain confident that there will be a deal – politicalbetting.com

The trend on the Smarkets exchange is very clear – punters now rate it a 75% chance that there will be a deal by the end of the month and certainly the apparent concession by Boris appears to have gone down well in Brussels.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    edited December 2020
    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    I think there will be a deal that includes a short term rollover of existing transition period until it is ratified and it will go into provisional use on Jan 1st as some kind of technical approval.
  • I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian.
  • FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308

    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    The UK seems to have leaked news about a deal a few times to try to bounce the EU into it.
  • FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    Yippee-ki-yay, M*****-f*****!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Seventh like Trump
  • FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    Well if it had been in July then it would be a reference to Die Hard since Die Hard was released in July.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
  • MaxPB said:

    I think there will be a deal that includes a short term rollover of existing transition period until it is ratified and it will go into provisional use on Jan 1st as some kind of technical approval.

    Its entirely possible a deal will be reached that needs a few weeks extension to nail ratification.

    I would be wary of betting due to technicalities like that. Looks like an argument in the making.

    If there is a deal then no doubt the usual suspects will make silly noises. The only reasonable way I think to judge it is as follows: "If you had known this is the deal would you have voted to Leave on 23/6/16" - for May's deal my answer would have been no. I await seeing what Boris's deal will be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    CNN: Moments after he recognized Joe Biden as president-elect for the first time, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also congratulated Vice-President elect Kamala Harris for the first time.

    “I also want to congratulate the vice president-elect, our colleague from California, Sen. Harris. Beyond our differences all Americans can take pride that our nation has a female vice president-elect for the very first time”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    If HMRC invites you to go to their Nakatomi Plaza office - put it off until New Year.

    Or if you do go - at no point take your shoes off.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian.
    Lando Cairissian?
  • Back in September/October the government said their October deadline was there because it would take two months to ratify any deal.

    The government have also said there will be no extension.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.

    Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.

    That really is phenomenal work.

    I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?
    Tbh, we're going to get the "capitulation" narrative if there's a deal. Some people need something to cling to. From here it looks as though there's a pretty fair negotiation happening with both sides giving ground to get a satisfactory outcome. It's what we've all been waiting for since 2016, just disappointing it's taken until now for the EU to start that process and negotiate from the original mandate which was never going to be acceptable and lead to no deal.
    No Deal was never an option for the UK.
    I think it was when the EU proposal was full alignment forever or unilateral deal suspension. If they'd stuck to that position I have no doubt we'd be heading for no deal instead of getting this one over the line.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    There isn't now enough to form the basis of the EU obtaining a "bigger win" to justify the risk of going for broke to get it - and having a no deal "big loss".

    Having got as far as they have got, No Deal would represent a monumental fuck up, where the only winners would be Asia.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Back in September/October the government said their October deadline was there because it would take two months to ratify any deal.

    The government have also said there will be no extension.

    The deal itself will have the extension in it. It may be as along as 6 months while the government fixes the customs border.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Roger said:

    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian.
    Lando Cairissian?
    They had an issue with their printers. The caravans are still there though on the south coast. The Lando's and the Clubo's.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2020
    There has been a lot of well-informed discussion on Twitter* on the question of whether it is legally and politically possible to agree a deal at this ludicrously late stage and have it apply on Jan 1st.

    For example, see here and the various replies to this tweet and the quoted thread:

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1338890975889027075

    The truth seems to be that no-one really knows. It might be possible to fudge something, but it's far from certain. There might have to be some chaotic interlude where no-one quite knows what the rules are, and tariffs might have to be collected and possibly reimbursed later. Whatever happens, it's a God-awful mess.

    * I know, I know - but if you follow the right people, there's a a lot of good stuff there.
  • We're going to get days/weeks of this aren't we?

    "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    Yes, I`ve just had a small bet with Smarkets on no deal which is probably value at the current odds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    Foxy said:

    My folks in Hampshire have just been called for their covid shots for Saturday.

    That's the Christmas present that they wanted! 🎅

    So you're regifting their actual presents to yourself? Score!
  • FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
  • Made the mistake of going to the gym at tea time. Too many people. Waaaay too many.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830

    We're going to get days/weeks of this aren't we?

    "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
    I thought it was 'Nothing is true. Everything is permitted'.

    Shit, actually that's Assassin's Creed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited December 2020
    The $markets bet on Deal loses if it is not signed off by Year End. So caution there.

    But nothing has changed on the fundamentals. No Deal is not an option for us therefore a Deal is certain. The only suspense is the detail - and even there not much since we know the shape of it. Future divergence at the price of possible tariffs.

    Been banging on, I know, so will not make this point again that a Deal is certain until Thursday morning at the earliest.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    There has been a lot of well-informed discussion on Twitter* on the question of whether it is legally and politically possible to agree a deal at this ludicrously late stage and have it apply on Jan 1st.

    For example, see here and the various replies to this tweet and the quoted thread:

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1338890975889027075

    The truth seems to be that no-one really knows. It might be possible to fudge something, but it's far from certain. There might have to be some chaotic interlude where no-one quite knows what the rules are, and tariffs might have to be collected and possibly reimbursed later. Whatever happens, it's a God-awful mess.

    * I know, I know - but if you follow the right people, there's a a lot of good stuff there.

    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    kinabalu said:

    The $markets bet on Deal loses if it is not signed off by Year End. So caution there.

    But nothing has changed on the fundamentals. No Deal is not an option for us therefore a Deal is certain. The only suspense is the detail - and even there not much since we know the shape of it. Future divergence at the price of possible tariffs.

    Been banging on, I know, so will not make this point again that a Deal is certain until Thursday morning at the earliest.

    Open the Box
  • Headline on ITV Wales news

    Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses
  • Stocky said:

    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    Yes, I`ve just had a small bet with Smarkets on no deal which is probably value at the current odds.
    Good job you're not on Betfair, it might be 2022 before they decide if there has been a deal or not.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Back in September/October the government said their October deadline was there because it would take two months to ratify any deal.

    The government have also said there will be no extension.

    Both of those things cannot be true at once - unless negotiations since October are a bad faith front for wanting No Deal all along. Assuming they were not, then HMG must have some kind of a mechanism for ratification in mind. Given that there is definitely now no time for ratification before now and the end of the year (remember the parliament of Wallonia and CETP anyone?) a technical extension sold as some kind of an “implementation period” must logically be what they hope for. Whether they get one past the EU or the ERG remains to be seen.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055
    Foxy said:

    My folks in Hampshire have just been called for their covid shots for Saturday.

    That's the Christmas present that they wanted! 🎅

    A friend of mine had their appointment booked for this week at the local hospital. Had a phone call from surgery to say Cancelled, no further date/info.

    Problem with logistics, perhaps? Freezer broken down?

    Good evening, everyone.
  • MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
  • Foxy said:

    My folks in Hampshire have just been called for their covid shots for Saturday.

    That's the Christmas present that they wanted! 🎅

    Really pleased to hear that.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    I'm not.

    Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.

    The deal still needs to be ratified.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian.
    "This deal means we Take Back Control!" - Lando Hopenglory.

  • MaxPB said:

    Back in September/October the government said their October deadline was there because it would take two months to ratify any deal.

    The government have also said there will be no extension.

    The deal itself will have the extension in it. It may be as along as 6 months while the government fixes the customs border.
    Spot on. HMRC real deadline for full capability is 1st July.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    IanB2 said:

    CNN: Moments after he recognized Joe Biden as president-elect for the first time, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also congratulated Vice-President elect Kamala Harris for the first time.

    “I also want to congratulate the vice president-elect, our colleague from California, Sen. Harris. Beyond our differences all Americans can take pride that our nation has a female vice president-elect for the very first time”

    Can't wait for Trump to start tweeting on the 6th January when Pence reads him his last political rites.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    DougSeal said:

    Back in September/October the government said their October deadline was there because it would take two months to ratify any deal.

    The government have also said there will be no extension.

    Both of those things cannot be true at once - unless negotiations since October are a bad faith front for wanting No Deal all along. Assuming they were not, then HMG must have some kind of a mechanism for ratification in mind. Given that there is definitely now no time for ratification before now and the end of the year (remember the parliament of Wallonia and CETP anyone?) a technical extension sold as some kind of an “implementation period” must logically be what they hope for. Whether they get one past the EU or the ERG remains to be seen.
    As long as it isn't actually ratified, the "implementation period" might become a "renegotiation period". Hope everyone's too sick of it at that point.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
  • FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    Yippee-ki-yay, M*****-f*****!
    Yeah I didn't say that one to him as I suspect he gets that a lot - and I wanted him to actually fix my laptop, and not hang up on me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited December 2020
    IanB2 said:

    CNN: Moments after he recognized Joe Biden as president-elect for the first time, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also congratulated Vice-President elect Kamala Harris for the first time.

    “I also want to congratulate the vice president-elect, our colleague from California, Sen. Harris. Beyond our differences all Americans can take pride that our nation has a female vice president-elect for the very first time”

    Tactical from McConnell.

    He waited until the EC met and voted for Biden before acknowledging Biden's victory so Trumpers could not accuse him of betraying the President.

    However he has now decided he has to throw Trump under a bus to ensure the Georgia Senate elections are seen as the only chance to stop the Democrats gaining control of all 3 branches of the Federal Government by Republican voters rather than allowing Trump to set the narrative than he can still win and be the main roadblock to Democratic power.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    What if the EU just says you can have an extension or no deal, but doesn't commit to a deal?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    I do hope so
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Back in September/October the government said their October deadline was there because it would take two months to ratify any deal.

    The government have also said there will be no extension.

    And you believe them?

    Honestly! There is no extension until there is an extension. The government will not extend for more negotiation but will for ratification. That’s a political choice not a moral imperative
  • MaxPB said:



    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.

    Yes, possibly. There's a suggestion that the Council of Ministers could agree something by written resolution, but it's not completely clear as far as I can see.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    We're going to get days/weeks of this aren't we?

    "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
    Imminent as in 'not tonight'. Did I imagine something earlier today about parliament sitting monday and tuesday (not the later stuff from Nick Watt, but this morning?)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited December 2020

    Headline on ITV Wales news

    Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses

    Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.

    It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Because the break through has already happened and do it is not imminent
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited December 2020
    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    The machine gun towers on the Kent border?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    CNN: Moments after he recognized Joe Biden as president-elect for the first time, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also congratulated Vice-President elect Kamala Harris for the first time.

    “I also want to congratulate the vice president-elect, our colleague from California, Sen. Harris. Beyond our differences all Americans can take pride that our nation has a female vice president-elect for the very first time”

    Tactical from McConnell.

    He waited until the EC met and voted for Biden before acknowledging Biden's victory so Trumpers could not accuse him of betraying the President.

    However he has now decided he has to throw Trump under a bus to ensure the Georgia Senate elections are seen as the only chance to stop the Democrats gaining control of all 3 branches of the Federal Government by Republican voters rather than allowing Trump to set the narrative than he can still win and be the main roadblock to Democratic power.
    The American people threw Trump under a bus, not McConnell. The rest of your post is sound though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    The machine gun towers on the Kent border?
    One wonders.

    I mean I'm sure it's not Brexit related.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited December 2020

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    What if the EU just says you can have an extension or no deal, but doesn't commit to a deal?
    Then we end up in accidental no deal. It would be seen as a sign of bad faith negotiation by the EU if they didn't commit to the already agreed deal and implied they would seek to reopen it after a transition extension was signed.

    It would also be completed stupid, it's something I could see Barnier pushing but Ursula seems to understand the importance of the situation and not unnecessarily pissing off the UK side.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    What if the EU just says you can have an extension or no deal, but doesn't commit to a deal?
    Then we end up in accidental no deal. It would be seen as a sign of bad faith negotiation by the EU if they didn't commit to the already agreed deal and implied they would seek to reopen it after a transition extension was signed.
    LOL

    I mean Max this govt was about to renege on the deal they signed moments ago.
  • MaxPB said:

    There has been a lot of well-informed discussion on Twitter* on the question of whether it is legally and politically possible to agree a deal at this ludicrously late stage and have it apply on Jan 1st.

    For example, see here and the various replies to this tweet and the quoted thread:

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1338890975889027075

    The truth seems to be that no-one really knows. It might be possible to fudge something, but it's far from certain. There might have to be some chaotic interlude where no-one quite knows what the rules are, and tariffs might have to be collected and possibly reimbursed later. Whatever happens, it's a God-awful mess.

    * I know, I know - but if you follow the right people, there's a a lot of good stuff there.

    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.
    That's what I'd do.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    Sounds like the UK government have commissioned Casino to build a picket fence along the Irish border.
  • TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    Our new customs posts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    Our new customs posts.
    At the likes of Stranraer maybe? (Okay, it's not 'inland', but it's inland if you are pretending it's not a border at all anyway.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    Our new customs posts.
    Where?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    ydoethur said:

    Headline on ITV Wales news

    Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses

    Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.

    It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
    Do you think there's a chance of polarisation on constitutional lines happening? Abolish the parliament versus independence.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    stjohn said:

    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    Sounds like the UK government have commissioned Casino to build a picket fence along the Irish border.
    Yard by yard...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    I imagine we'll find out before the evening is out which areas are looking to change position, as they'll leak it in order to put pressure on the government (or the government leak to put pressure on the devolved administrations).
  • ydoethur said:

    Headline on ITV Wales news

    Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses

    Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.

    It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
    Do you think there's a chance of polarisation on constitutional lines happening? Abolish the parliament versus independence.
    No
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    Earlier it looked like the Welsh were.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Made the mistake of going to the gym at tea time. Too many people. Waaaay too many.

    To quote the late Kenneth Wolstenhome, "they think it's all over..."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    I imagine we'll find out before the evening is out which areas are looking to change position, as they'll leak it in order to put pressure on the government (or the government leak to put pressure on the devolved administrations).
    Very probably. The argument for relaxation is now pretty much unstateable. The current lockdowns are simply not going to reduce the rate of infections by anything like enough before the relaxations are due to occur. Indeed we seem to be going in the opposite direction.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308

    Made the mistake of going to the gym at tea time. Too many people. Waaaay too many.

    To quote the late Kenneth Wolstenhome, "they think it's all over..."
    "...it isn't now."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    What if the EU just says you can have an extension or no deal, but doesn't commit to a deal?
    Then we end up in accidental no deal. It would be seen as a sign of bad faith negotiation by the EU if they didn't commit to the already agreed deal and implied they would seek to reopen it after a transition extension was signed.
    LOL

    I mean Max this govt was about to renege on the deal they signed moments ago.
    Stupidly, but happily that's not on the table now. Either way it would be stupid of the EU to agree a deal but not commit to it for any extension.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Gov't should have kept the full lockdown till just before christmas. Watched the Joshua fight, having ~1000 fans indoors was absolute lunacy
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    She'll want to lockdown and be quite happy to go it alone if Boris demurs. Polling shows that most people don't think restrictions tight enough. Her (successful) political strategy has been to be stricter than W'minster since this started.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633
    edited December 2020
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    I imagine we'll find out before the evening is out which areas are looking to change position, as they'll leak it in order to put pressure on the government (or the government leak to put pressure on the devolved administrations).
    Very probably. The argument for relaxation is now pretty much unstateable. The current lockdowns are simply not going to reduce the rate of infections by anything like enough before the relaxations are due to occur. Indeed we seem to be going in the opposite direction.
    It is looking near enough nailed on that some form of national lockdown will start from 28 Dec and the government will have to announce it early next week given the numbers by the weekend will be much worse than today

    So for that reason don't expect any tier relaxations tomorrow (the first formal review date) as the government will be aware that this is coming

    Also makes it difficult re Christmas - if the Government scraps the relaxations then many will meet up anyway, but many others won't even if the relaxations remain.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    She'll want to lockdown and be quite happy to go it alone if Boris demurs. Polling shows that most people don't think restrictions tight enough. Her (successful) political strategy has been to be stricter than W'minster since this started.
    Politically it has been successful, economically completely disastrous. It is hard to see what is going to be left of our city centres by the time this is over.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    I imagine we'll find out before the evening is out which areas are looking to change position, as they'll leak it in order to put pressure on the government (or the government leak to put pressure on the devolved administrations).
    Very probably. The argument for relaxation is now pretty much unstateable. The current lockdowns are simply not going to reduce the rate of infections by anything like enough before the relaxations are due to occur. Indeed we seem to be going in the opposite direction.
    It is looking near enough nailed on that some form of national lockdown will start from 28 Dec and the government will have to announce it early next week given the numbers by the weekend will be much worse than today

    So for that reason don't expect any tier relaxations tomorrow (the first formal review date) as the government will be aware that this is coming

    Also makes it difficult re Christmas - if the Government scraps the relaxations then many will meet up anyway, but many others won't even if the relaxations remain.
    The only argument left for a Christmas relaxation is that too many are going to ignore the laws anyway and there is not much we can do about it. Which isn't a great argument, to be honest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    I still have mine to do , usually leave to last minute.
  • TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    What if the EU just says you can have an extension or no deal, but doesn't commit to a deal?
    Then we end up in accidental no deal. It would be seen as a sign of bad faith negotiation by the EU if they didn't commit to the already agreed deal and implied they would seek to reopen it after a transition extension was signed.
    LOL

    I mean Max this govt was about to renege on the deal they signed moments ago.
    When there was no deal agreed.

    You don't mess around once a deal is agreed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    She'll want to lockdown and be quite happy to go it alone if Boris demurs. Polling shows that most people don't think restrictions tight enough. Her (successful) political strategy has been to be stricter than W'minster since this started.
    The people are not stupid , they agree with her.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    Earlier it looked like the Welsh were.
    looking at their increasing rates I would not be surprised
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    Earlier it looked like the Welsh were.
    looking at their increasing rates I would not be surprised
    Other way around Malc, looks like Nicola, Boris and Arlene are all looking to shorten the free pass length but the Welsh are resisting because of their idiotic circuit breaker policy completely unravelling if they do because they sold it on the false basis of it allowing a normalish Christmas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK cases by specimen data and scaled to 100k population

    image
  • I spoke to my grandparents earlier today. My granddad's GP is expecting to get their vaccinations this weekend. They're hoping to get their vaccination next week which would be fantastic on Christmas week if that happens. Really good to hear, hopefully it goes well.

    We are beginning to reach the end of this hopefully. Let's not get crazy now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK local R

    image
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    David, David, even you have joined the SNPBAD always club now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited December 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Headline on ITV Wales news

    Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses

    Will be interesting to see if that’s reflected in the next Welsh barometer poll.

    It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
    Do you think there's a chance of polarisation on constitutional lines happening? Abolish the parliament versus independence.
    No. Because only a few fruitcakes on either side in Wales want either option. The question in constitutional terms is more powers first vs. competent governance first. But that frankly is a secondary issue to the problems in public services, rampant corruption and a fragile, unstable economy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    FPT - I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.

    What does this mean??

    You're behind on your paperwork?
    No, I'm working for them on the inland border posts. As of last week.

    My laptop doesn't log on properly.
    What's an inland border post?
    Our new customs posts.
    Where?
    Warrington, Birmingham, Holyhead, North Weald, White Cliffs, Ebbsfleet etc. and a few others with contingency sites on top.

    We're a member of the common transit convention now in our own right so lorries will only have to make customs declarations and pay import duties when they arrive at their final destination - and you can file some in advance and just have spot checks on top - which will reduce loads at ports.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:
    Nicola wanting to break ranks I suspect.
    David, David, even you have joined the SNPBAD always club now.
    Not really Malcolm. If you look at my other posts on the matter you will see that I agree with her!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK R

    From case data

    image
    image
    image

    From hospitalisation data

    image
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    I think if there is a deal done then it will go into "provisional effect" or something and it will include a 6 month "deal implementation period" that essentially looks the same as the current transition period and comes with membership fees. That's the kind of fudge that would work becuase Boris gets his deal and 6 more months to figure out the customs border and supply chain changes, the EU gets 6 months to get it through 27 different parliaments and a €6bn bung.

    It's not quite as simple as that, for a number of reasons. One is that the Commission can't provisionally apply anything other than a pure trade deal, and any deal we do sign will probably be 'mixed'. Another is that they can only provisionally apply a text, and that text has to be the legally-scrubbed version. Doing that in the remaining week in the midst of Covid-19 is unrealistic.

    The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.

    There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.

    God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
    That's why I think a political solution to an extension will be found. They'll come up with some kind of wording but it means we stay in the transition period for another six months but a few days before the 31st of December we'll see Boris and Ursula in a room in London or Brussels signing this deal in front of the cameras.
    What if the EU just says you can have an extension or no deal, but doesn't commit to a deal?
    Then we end up in accidental no deal. It would be seen as a sign of bad faith negotiation by the EU if they didn't commit to the already agreed deal and implied they would seek to reopen it after a transition extension was signed.
    LOL

    I mean Max this govt was about to renege on the deal they signed moments ago.
    When there was no deal agreed.

    You don't mess around once a deal is agreed.
    The deal was agreed and signed.
This discussion has been closed.