In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks – politicalbet

System

In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks – politicalbetting.com

While all eyes in the US are focused on the Electoral College vote count which is taking place today in Europe there’ve been positive indications from the talks in Brussels with the EU and UK agreeing to keep talks on a trade agreement going.

Read the full story here

londonpubman

Top tier...

williamglenn

This could be wrong but...

https://twitter.com/pastormarkburns/status/1338518866683686915

DavidL

But if the European Parliament refuses to ratify it can the agreement be signed?

Richard_Nabavi

DavidL said:

But if the European Parliament refuses to ratify it can the agreement be signed?

Probably, but it's not clear. In practice, the Commission and the Council of Ministers would probably try to find some fudge that purported to respect the European Parliament's veto.

IanB2

FPT

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

I asked earlier whether any other countries already had average daily virus death rates higher than during the spring first wave? Does anyone know without having to do lots of data crunching?

IanB2

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

WhisperingOracle

williamglenn said:

This could be wrong but...

https://twitter.com/pastormarkburns/status/1338518866683686915

Important for keeping up his outsider and anti-systemic credentials with parts of his base.

Anabobazina

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Anabobazina

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Point of order: Essex isn't much smaller than Kent.

rpjs

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Richard_Nabavi

IanB2 said:

FPT

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

I asked earlier whether any other countries already had average daily virus death rates higher than during the spring first wave? Does anyone know without having to do lots of data crunching?

I don't think any major Western countries have (although recent data may be missing) . There's a very good set of comparative graphs here:

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

(Excess death charts by country about a third of the way down the page).

Nigelb

(FPT)

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DougSeal said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ping said:

ping said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Uh Oh. New London Pox identified

Worrying.

Will the vaccines still be effective?

Hancock says “highly unlikely they won’t work” ... Geeks at Portondown on the case.

This is potentially disasterous....

Good news! We have a vaccine!

[TWO WEEKS LATER]

The vaccine doesn't work on this new London strain

I personally would really appreciate toning down this sort of doom mongering. If you're wrong, it's not helpful, if you're right, it's not helpful either.

Apologies. I was not making a serious prediction! When things are bad I make jokes. Laughing is funnier than crying after all.

The more serious prediction would be that, with each mutation tending towards more contagious but less deadly (as you would expect from an evolutionary perspective), COVID will eventually finish up being seen as just another type of flu, with its annual death toll (of the unvaccinated, if immunity proves lasting).

Why would you expect a virus with a mortality rate of somewhere around 1%, which doesn't kill those who die until weeks after they became infectious, to tend to become less deadly any time soon ?
Infectiousness is a different matter, though that's likely to be pretty complicated given you're starting with a pretty infectious virus in the first place.

Because death at the end correlates with more serious illness in the middle correlates with more significant symptoms at the beginning correlates with people who stay in bed rather than shrugging off being under the weather and hitting the party.

But as we know with this virus, those infected are at their most infectious well before they develop serious symptoms.

Anabobazina

rpjs said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Indeed, I just think the bar has been raised by Pfizer – the AZ one is great (in many ways better because it's so easy to distribute!)

kle4

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

Their covid deaths reduced for a time, but nowhere near the single and lower double figure results many places were getting between first and second waves. It seems like they never really left a first wave in some parts by the time a second wave hit in others.;

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1338522823401365504

Well whose fault is that? Only one side can choose to include them, and presume upon their playin nicely.

Nigelb

WhisperingOracle said:

williamglenn said:

This could be wrong but...

https://twitter.com/pastormarkburns/status/1338518866683686915

Important for keeping up his outsider and anti-systemic credentials with parts of his base.

Or keeping Assange from giving evidence in court.
Trump does little that is not transactional.

kle4

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

MaxPB

rpjs said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Yeah but why use a lesser vaccine for older people when it gives a 90% effect in younger when and there's supply of 90% vaccine for older people that is already approved. The optimum roll out strategy is for old people to get the most effective vaccine rather than one which is 60% effective.

DougSeal

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

There may have been an argument at the beginning of December for this but at the moment every single district in Kent has rising cases and only two are outside of the top 10 worst in England.

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

rpjs said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Yeah but why use a lesser vaccine for older people when it gives a 90% effect in younger when and there's supply of 90% vaccine for older people that is already approved. The optimum roll out strategy is for old people to get the most effective vaccine rather than one which is 60% effective.

Isn't there an issue with getting the super cold one into nursing homes?

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

Their covid deaths reduced for a time, but nowhere near the single and lower double figure results many places were getting between first and second waves. It seems like they never really left a first wave in some parts by the time a second wave hit in others.;

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1338522823401365504

Well whose fault is that? Only one side can choose to include them, and presume upon their playin nicely.

Perhaps THEY would take a call with Boris?

Richard_Nabavi

I think this was the last one that was still standing, wasn't it?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1338529253936263173

SandyRentool

London promoted to the Covid premier division, but will West Yorkshire be relegated later in the week?

If so, the razor wire on the roads to Skipton and Harrogate can come down and we'll be free to visit North Yorkshire again.

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

If that rebellion includes a turkey BBQ with 30 of your mates, maybe....

Sandpit

Come on Betfair, time to settle that $2bn market.

rpjs

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think this was the last one that was still standing, wasn't it?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1338529253936263173

"So farewell then, the Kraken. We hardly knew ye."

SandyRentool

WhisperingOracle said:

williamglenn said:

This could be wrong but...

https://twitter.com/pastormarkburns/status/1338518866683686915

Important for keeping up his outsider and anti-systemic credentials with parts of his base.

I read that as anti-semitic!

Sandpit

On topic. This is likely to wildly swing in the next couple of days. Lay the favourite.

Nigelb

A virologist confirms what I thought.

https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1338524160054595584

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

If that rebellion includes a turkey BBQ with 30 of your mates, maybe....

Old traditions get modernised for a new era. Our ancestors may have sought to march on London and stab some townie in the guts with an improvised halberd, and we'll do things our own way.

I assume, being in the West Country, that we had plenty of rebellions, but marching to London seems an awful long way to go. Kept it local I imagine.

MarqueeMark

Anabobazina said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Point of order: Essex isn't much smaller than Kent.

Almost identical populations: as per 2019

Kent 1.855m vs Essex 1.842m

Sandpit

williamglenn said:

This could be wrong but...

https://twitter.com/pastormarkburns/status/1338518866683686915

I wonder if he’ll also pardon Edward Snowden?

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

If that rebellion includes a turkey BBQ with 30 of your mates, maybe....

Old traditions get modernised for a new era. Our ancestors may have sought to march on London and stab some townie in the guts with an improvised halberd, and we'll do things our own way.

I assume, being in the West Country, that we had plenty of rebellions, but marching to London seems an awful long way to go. Kept it local I imagine.

Who from Devon is going to stab some Cockney townie in the guts with an improvised halberd when they can travel a fraction of the distance and do for a Somter townie instead?

kle4

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

This could be wrong but...

https://twitter.com/pastormarkburns/status/1338518866683686915

I wonder if he’ll also pardon Edward Snowden?

According to the Guardian he spoke in rather mealy mouthed fashion on that several months ago.

At a press conference on Saturday Trump said he did not know much about the case and heard powerful arguments for and against a pardon. He then added that he would look into the matter.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/15/edward-snowden-trump-pardon

He's an odd one though, as he usually claims to know everything, but then when he wants to equivocate he brings out the stock phrase of not knowing much about it with notable frequency. It's like he cannot half bluff and obfuscate, so must claim omnipotence or complete ignorance.

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

(FPT)

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DougSeal said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ping said:

ping said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Uh Oh. New London Pox identified

Worrying.

Will the vaccines still be effective?

Hancock says “highly unlikely they won’t work” ... Geeks at Portondown on the case.

This is potentially disasterous....

Good news! We have a vaccine!

[TWO WEEKS LATER]

The vaccine doesn't work on this new London strain

I personally would really appreciate toning down this sort of doom mongering. If you're wrong, it's not helpful, if you're right, it's not helpful either.

Apologies. I was not making a serious prediction! When things are bad I make jokes. Laughing is funnier than crying after all.

The more serious prediction would be that, with each mutation tending towards more contagious but less deadly (as you would expect from an evolutionary perspective), COVID will eventually finish up being seen as just another type of flu, with its annual death toll (of the unvaccinated, if immunity proves lasting).

Why would you expect a virus with a mortality rate of somewhere around 1%, which doesn't kill those who die until weeks after they became infectious, to tend to become less deadly any time soon ?
Infectiousness is a different matter, though that's likely to be pretty complicated given you're starting with a pretty infectious virus in the first place.

Because death at the end correlates with more serious illness in the middle correlates with more significant symptoms at the beginning correlates with people who stay in bed rather than shrugging off being under the weather and hitting the party.

But as we know with this virus, those infected are at their most infectious well before they develop serious symptoms.

The only working assumpion with Covid is that if the guy in the queue next to you looks to be in fine fettle, then HE HAS INFECTIOUS ASSYMPTOMATIC COVID! Flee!

IshmaelZ

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

If that rebellion includes a turkey BBQ with 30 of your mates, maybe....

Old traditions get modernised for a new era. Our ancestors may have sought to march on London and stab some townie in the guts with an improvised halberd, and we'll do things our own way.

I assume, being in the West Country, that we had plenty of rebellions, but marching to London seems an awful long way to go. Kept it local I imagine.

Out spake their Captain brave and bold:
A merry wight was he:
Though London Tower were Michael's hold,
We'll set Trelawny free!
We'll cross the Tamar, land to land:
The Severn is no stay:
With "one and all," and hand in hand;
And who shall bid us nay?

And shall Trelawny live?
Or shall Trelawny die?
Here's twenty thousand Cornish men
Will know the reason why!

And when we come to London Wall,
A pleasant sight to view,
Come forth! come forth! ye cowards all:
Here's men as good as you.
Trelawny he's in keep and hold;
Trelawny he may die:
Here's twenty thousand Cornish bold
Will know the reason why

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/1338535213522096129

RobD

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/1338535213522096129

It should be, and they have the perfect excuse to do so.

DecrepiterJohnL

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1338536058452107268

NerysHughes

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

RobD

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

No doubt it will be very soon.

Stocky

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

rpjs said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Yeah but why use a lesser vaccine for older people when it gives a 90% effect in younger when and there's supply of 90% vaccine for older people that is already approved. The optimum roll out strategy is for old people to get the most effective vaccine rather than one which is 60% effective.

Isn't there an issue with getting the super cold one into nursing homes?

I think that's why they're organising transports to GP surgeries and hospitals for care home residents.

Richard_Nabavi

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

MaxPB

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

Lots of bureaucracy.

rottenborough

GA ECV voters now signing the paperwork.

It's live on PBS, Betfair, if you want to see the action before settling that market.

IanB2

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DougSeal said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ping said:

ping said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Uh Oh. New London Pox identified

Worrying.

Will the vaccines still be effective?

Hancock says “highly unlikely they won’t work” ... Geeks at Portondown on the case.

This is potentially disasterous....

Good news! We have a vaccine!

[TWO WEEKS LATER]

The vaccine doesn't work on this new London strain

I personally would really appreciate toning down this sort of doom mongering. If you're wrong, it's not helpful, if you're right, it's not helpful either.

Apologies. I was not making a serious prediction! When things are bad I make jokes. Laughing is funnier than crying after all.

The more serious prediction would be that, with each mutation tending towards more contagious but less deadly (as you would expect from an evolutionary perspective), COVID will eventually finish up being seen as just another type of flu, with its annual death toll (of the unvaccinated, if immunity proves lasting).

Why would you expect a virus with a mortality rate of somewhere around 1%, which doesn't kill those who die until weeks after they became infectious, to tend to become less deadly any time soon ?
Infectiousness is a different matter, though that's likely to be pretty complicated given you're starting with a pretty infectious virus in the first place.

Because death at the end correlates with more serious illness in the middle correlates with more significant symptoms at the beginning correlates with people who stay in bed rather than shrugging off being under the weather and hitting the party.

But as we know with this virus, those infected are at their most infectious well before they develop serious symptoms.

Yes, but more serious infections tend to produce more serious symptoms, and milder infections milder ones. So a milder infection is also likely to have more people who are asymptomatic (or who don’t notice whatever mild symptoms they might have) and go about their life as normal. Such a virus would spread more quickly.

The only way your position (that there’s no difference) would work is if contagion disappeared altogether before any symptoms arise. I don’t believe that is the case?

ping

Come on betfair

ping

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

They’re taking the piss

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

I don't think it matters because they aren't due any deliveries in Europe until mid January and all of the first shipments are going to Germany.

IanB2

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Breaking - Kent unhappy that, government having insisted it was impracticable to split the county despite its large size and varying rates, much smaller Essex and Hertfordshire have now been split because of their varying local rates.

Perhaps they will get back to their roots and indulge in a good old fashioned Kentish rebellion?

What it tells us is that Wednesdays review will likely put some lines through the county

NerysHughes

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

ydoethur

ping said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

They’re taking the piss

If you'd bet using piss, you wouldn't be so annoyed at the failure to pay out.

It's the taking of the money that's the problem.

Omnium

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

MaxPB

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

eek

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

There is zero point rushing things if there are no vaccines available to be given.

And I suspect Pfizer are happy to direct the existing stock to the Uk and the USA while the EU gets organised.

NerysHughes

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

Nigelb

Thread on the new variant.
V. little evidence so far that it's of any more significance than the previous ones.

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1338533710178775047

RobD

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

Why wouldn't they. Unless you think the EU will seize vaccines rightfully belonging to the UK?

MaxPB

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

NerysHughes

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

Imagine if the UK did that

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

It is fair to say that however unbelievably shit our government has been, Belgium's has been worse.

Do they actual have one right now, or is it the interim government buggering it all up?

eristdoof

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

rpjs said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccinating the productive young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Yeah but why use a lesser vaccine for older people when it gives a 90% effect in younger when and there's supply of 90% vaccine for older people that is already approved. The optimum roll out strategy is for old people to get the most effective vaccine rather than one which is 60% effective.

Isn't there an issue with getting the super cold one into nursing homes?

You make it sound like Australian beer.

JonWC

A betting post! Does anyone understand why the Betfair handicap market has Biden -63.5 as an odds-on favourite over Trump plus 63.5?

dixiedean

Does anyone think anywhere will move down on Wednesday? If so who is favourite?

Richard_Nabavi

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

I don't think it matters because they aren't due any deliveries in Europe until mid January and all of the first shipments are going to Germany.

Yes, but maybe that's because they've missed the early allocations as a result of the delay in approval.

theoldpolitics

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

JonWC

Am I going mad is what I am asking I guess.

Mexicanpete

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

Send in the Royal Navy to sort them out! That seems to be the knee-jerk response from HMG to Johnny Foreigner misbehaving.

MaxPB

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

Imagine if the UK did that

Why do you think the UK has signed early delivery contracts? It's so that it won't happen that way. It's also why the government rejected the EU scheme as the terms at the time was to take over the existing deals that the UK already had.

MarqueeMark

dixiedean said:

Does anyone think anywhere will move down on Wednesday? If so who is favourite?

South Hams in Tier 2 is probably favourite, given it is no different to Cornwall that is in Tier 1. Bt I'm not expecting it.

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

Does anyone think anywhere will move down on Wednesday? If so who is favourite?

Numbers in Staffs are on the way down, although they're still absurdly high in schools.

Peter_the_Punter

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

There is no sign of the huge sums available at extreme odds being withdrawn. This isn't normal punter money, but rather money being laundered. Until it diminishes, there must be every chance Betfair keep the market(s) open.

Richard_Nabavi

JonWC said:

Am I going mad is what I am asking I guess.

You're not going mad, but you've misinterpreted. It's Biden - 63.5 vs Trump, or Trump + 63.5 vs Biden, not Biden -63.5 vs Trump + 63.5.

The actual result is 306 to 232, difference 74, so Biden wins by more than 63.5.

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

I don't think it matters because they aren't due any deliveries in Europe until mid January and all of the first shipments are going to Germany.

Yes, but maybe that's because they've missed the early allocations as a result of the delay in approval.

Yes, that's a possibility. I guess part of why the government pressed so hard for early delivery is because the approval timetable was set to be so early.

eristdoof

IanB2 said:

FPT

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

I asked earlier whether any other countries already had average daily virus death rates higher than during the spring first wave? Does anyone know without having to do lots of data crunching?

"Death rates" depend on what the denominator is. If it is positive cases, then almost all countries will have lower death rates because there is sooooo much more testing going on now, and the mjority of cases are being found.

If you mean number of deaths per week, then Germany is easily over their death rate in April and I think many countries are.

ping

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Wtf?

RobD

Mexicanpete said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

Send in the Royal Navy to sort them out! That seems to be the knee-jerk response from HMG to Johnny Foreigner misbehaving.

That didn't happen when France seized PPE destined for the UK, did it?

eristdoof

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

Is there anybody still claiming that Covid is not claiming more lives than would have died from other causes anyway?

NerysHughes

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

Imagine if the UK did that

Why do you think the UK has signed early delivery contracts? It's so that it won't happen that way. It's also why the government rejected the EU scheme as the terms at the time was to take over the existing deals that the UK already had.

Its brilliant that the UK Government have done this, Im surprised that Scott has not retweeted in favour of it, it just surprises me that the EU have allowed this to happen. Surely the role of any government is to protect its own citizens.

ydoethur

ping said:

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Wtf?

What is the electoral event? A new board for Betfair who aren't compromised by their predecessors' stupidity?

RobD

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

Imagine if the UK did that

Why do you think the UK has signed early delivery contracts? It's so that it won't happen that way. It's also why the government rejected the EU scheme as the terms at the time was to take over the existing deals that the UK already had.

Its brilliant that the UK Government have done this, Im surprised that Scott has not retweeted in favour of it, it just surprises me that the EU have allowed this to happen. Surely the role of any government is to protect its own citizens.

Perhaps the problem is the individual governments have limited say in the matter.

Gallowgate

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

Imagine if the UK did that

Why do you think the UK has signed early delivery contracts? It's so that it won't happen that way. It's also why the government rejected the EU scheme as the terms at the time was to take over the existing deals that the UK already had.

Its brilliant that the UK Government have done this, Im surprised that Scott has not retweeted in favour of it, it just surprises me that the EU have allowed this to happen. Surely the role of any government is to protect its own citizens.

The EU have bet big on other vaccines. Not everything has to be a EU vs UK fight.

We've done well to secure big early orders of Pfizer and AZ. Let's hope it all pays off otherwise 2021 is going to be pretty miserable.

RobD

ydoethur said:

ping said:

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Wtf?

What is the electoral event? A new board for Betfair who aren't compromised by their predecessors' stupidity?

Certification in Congress, where the VP reads out who got what votes.

IanB2

..

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

rpjs said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

Alistair said:

Literally the only thing not sending me into a total depressions at the moment is that at least Scotland admissions are still trending downwards but I don't know how much this is a reporting artefact.

Ultimately none of this really matters as long as we get the vaccine out quickly. Could do with an Oxon-AZ approval quick sharp – then use that to inject under 55s while Pfizer/Moderna goes to the elderly.

If we luck into that strategy because of the regulator it will be great because the government will be forced into vaccina young on a much earlier and more aggressive schedule than what is currently under consideration.

I think that double-edge approach is most wise, simply because the Oxon jab is less effective but much easier to distribute. 70% is fine for the under-55s TBH (and it is 100% effective at stopping hospitalisations which is obviously fantastic).

So, let's bloody get on with it and have the young guns jabbed with the cheap and cheerful, quick Oxon juice and save the potent, trickier stuff for the oldies.

As you say, the govt might actually be bounced into that exact policy by the MHRA – I think @Charles was saying that they are likely to restrict it to under 55s.

Doesn't the WHO rate 50% effectiveness as sufficient for a vaccine so long as it can get out to a large enough population?

Yeah but why use a lesser vaccine for older people when it gives a 90% effect in younger when and there's supply of 90% vaccine for older people that is already approved. The optimum roll out strategy is for old people to get the most effective vaccine rather than one which is 60% effective.

Isn't there an issue with getting the super cold one into nursing homes?

The problem is the batch size (which I have seen variously as 750 or 950), which is way too large for even a few nearby care homes, yet has all to be used within three days.

The difficulty must be breaking the batch whilst it is still super frozen.....

DecrepiterJohnL

JonWC said:

A betting post! Does anyone understand why the Betfair handicap market has Biden -63.5 as an odds-on favourite over Trump plus 63.5?

Because it will end up Biden 306 to Trump 232 which is a difference of 74.

ydoethur

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

ping said:

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Wtf?

What is the electoral event? A new board for Betfair who aren't compromised by their predecessors' stupidity?

Certification in Congress, where the VP reads out who got what votes.

You don't certify the board in Congress, you get psychiatrists to do it.

Oh, sorry, is that not what you meant?

Richard_Nabavi

eristdoof said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/IronEconomist/status/1338171963232153600

And it's probably a lot worse in the recent weeks for which data is not yet available.

Is there anybody still claiming that Covid is not claiming more lives than would have died from other causes anyway?

Unfortunately, yes, this guy for example:

https://twitter.com/MillerStream/status/1338203809114296321

JonWC

Richard_Nabavi said:

JonWC said:

Am I going mad is what I am asking I guess.

You're not going mad, but you've misinterpreted. It's Biden - 63.5 vs Trump, or Trump + 63.5 vs Biden, not Biden -63.5 vs Trump + 63.5.

The actual result is 306 to 232, difference 74, so Biden wins by more than 63.5.

Thanks, though that makes absolutely no sense to me given the two options are Trump +63.5 and Biden - 63.5 - very misleading.

Stocky

Whenever I see Hancock I can`t help recalling Charlie Brooker`s description of him: "Your sister's first boyfriend with a car".

nichomar

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Starts roll out in Spain 4/5 January

kle4

rpjs said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I think this was the last one that was still standing, wasn't it?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1338529253936263173

"So farewell then, the Kraken. We hardly knew ye."

Damn, and I was planning on reading The Kraken Wakes tomorrow and all.

RobD

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

NerysHughes said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NerysHughes said:

Does anyone have any idea why the EU has not approved the Pfizer vaccine?

They are following the procedures for 'provisional' authorisation, which are more onerous and take longer than those required for the 'emergency' authorisation we used.

Seems pretty daft to me - if this isn't an emergency, what is? They'll have lost a month.

The delay will cost lives, clearly the vaccine is safe, Covid in old and ill people is deadly. Its complete madness.

Not really, all of the Pfizer deliveries in Europe are set for the UK until mid January anyway. If they don't approve it by then it would be a disaster as Germany would be be taking deliveries but be unable to start using it.

So if the EU approved the vaccine tomorrow, Belgium would continue sending the vaccine to the UK and not have any for its own citizens? I cant see that

They don't have a choice. Pfizer is contracted to supply the UK, Belgium doesn't come into the reckoning.

Imagine if the UK did that

Why do you think the UK has signed early delivery contracts? It's so that it won't happen that way. It's also why the government rejected the EU scheme as the terms at the time was to take over the existing deals that the UK already had.

Its brilliant that the UK Government have done this, Im surprised that Scott has not retweeted in favour of it, it just surprises me that the EU have allowed this to happen. Surely the role of any government is to protect its own citizens.

The EU have bet big on other vaccines. Not everything has to be a EU vs UK fight.

We've done well to secure big early orders of Pfizer and AZ. Let's hope it all pays off otherwise 2021 is going to be pretty miserable.

They have quite a balanced vaccine portfolio, with the Pfizer vaccine taking up a similar portion to others. From the FT - https://i.imgur.com/f8cATzw.png

Peter_the_Punter

ping said:

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Wtf?

ping said:

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Wtf?

Well I did say there was only an 80% likelihood of Betfair settling once the Electoral College had voted. Looks like I overestimated.

ping

Peter_the_Punter said:

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

There is no sign of the huge sums available at extreme odds being withdrawn. This isn't normal punter money, but rather money being laundered. Until it diminishes, there must be every chance Betfair keep the market(s) open.

So now we’re waiting until the inauguration, basically.

Peter_the_Punter

ping said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

There is no sign of the huge sums available at extreme odds being withdrawn. This isn't normal punter money, but rather money being laundered. Until it diminishes, there must be every chance Betfair keep the market(s) open.

So we’re waiting until the inauguration, basically.

ping said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

Omnium said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Having totally messed settlement up their best hope is to settle of the ostensibly biggest thing. That's tomorrow.

They are so lucky that the settlement as per their rules and the settlement (as is almost certainly the case) tomorrow will be the same.

There is no sign of the huge sums available at extreme odds being withdrawn. This isn't normal punter money, but rather money being laundered. Until it diminishes, there must be every chance Betfair keep the market(s) open.

So we’re waiting until the inauguration, basically.

Or a Trump concession.

Stocky

Chatter on Betfair forum speculating that they won`t settle until 6 Jan.

A comment from one poster:

"I guess it's possible that someone high up has decided that:

a) they're still raking in the money (and commission) on this market

b) they're going to spend the next month+ dealing with angry people who feel cheated regardless of what they do

So they may as well double down and just wait for 6th / 20th Jan. However, whilst the Trump backers don't have an actual case, those with money tied up on Biden most certainly do, and you'd think the Gambling Commission might HAVE to do something if they continue to pretend that this outcome isn't already plenty decided (on the basis of their own market rules). But who knows!"

Sandpit

theoldpolitics said:

Stocky said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Remarkably you can still bet in states that have already cast their Electoral College votes.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/electoral-college-vote-2020-biden-trump/index.html

Current Betfair prices:-

Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.03
Biden ECV 300-329 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers

AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.03
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.02
PA Dem 1.02
WI Dem 1.04

Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
Trump exit date 2021 1.05

That doesn`t bode well for a settlement tomorrow.

Neither does Betfair's weaselling dissembling about the terms of the market.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1338537074035728387

Betfair aren’t having a good day today, they can’t even settle sports markets on time.
https://twitter.com/sashaslater77/status/1338422352313544704

Omnium

Stocky said:

Chatter on Betfair forum speculating that they won`t settle until 6 Jan.

A comment from one poster:

"I guess it's possible that someone high up has decided that:

a) they're still raking in the money (and commission) on this market

b) they're going to spend the next month+ dealing with angry people who feel cheated regardless of what they do

So they may as well double down and just wait for 6th / 20th Jan. However, whilst the Trump backers don't have an actual case, those with money tied up on Biden most certainly do, and you'd think the Gambling Commission might HAVE to do something if they continue to pretend that this outcome isn't already plenty decided (on the basis of their own market rules). But who knows!"

The risk of an asymmetry in the settlement should have had them settling as soon as they could.

Every day they're opening themselves up to risk. In that it's arguable that people are betting on a sure thing. Those laying the prices could argue that it wasn't clear because BF themselves had decided it wasn't clear.

Madness.

JACK_W

Biden up 135/97 in the EC. Sadly none for Robert Smithson ....