The only way there won't be trade negotiations after 1/1/21 is if it's all concluded this week.
Negotiations and discussions with the EU will continue for years if we no deal maybe even to 2024 GE with Labour promising to join the single market and customs union
The person to blame is David Cameron, he called the referendum.
Brexiteers will blame someone else for their folly till the day they die...
I'm sure they'll be happy to take the credit in the unlikely event that Brexit is a success.
The responsibility for Brexit lies firmly in the hands of those who campaigned and voted for it. If it is a success, they can claim the credit; if it is a failure, well, they are to blame.
And maybe the remain campaign should have done a lot better
Well, yes, but that's irrelevant to the point I was making. We're doing what the Brexitters wanted to do, so the credit/blame for the outcome goes to them. Simple.
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am sure posters will remember my stark warnings that Drakeford's failure to continue restrictions post the fire break, in his determination that a single firebreak was all that was needed, would have consequences and it gives me no pleasure to have been proved correct as Wales heads into a Christmas crisis far worse than England, Scotland or NI
Opening up the Welsh high streets to a mass of Christmas shopping visitors from Bristol and the West Midlands (whose own non-essential shops were closed) will also, in the final assessment of Covid, have shown the stupidity of different national regimes within the UK.
The only way there won't be trade negotiations after 1/1/21 is if it's all concluded this week.
Negotiations and discussions with the EU will continue for years if we no deal maybe even to 2024 GE with Labour promising to join the single market and customs union
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am not quite sure how Drakeford screwed up so badly -- he is by nature a very, very cautious individual.
As N Wales is pretty low, then it follows that S Wales (Cardiff & the Valleys) are in some trouble.
Let us not forget, this Drakeford screw-up circuit breaker is the very same circuit-breaker that Starmer got so lippy with Boris for not introducing.
Well, Starmer was right to argue for stronger action earlier, and presumably he would have returned to tiered restrictions afterwards just like Johnson has and Drakeford hasn't.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am sure posters will remember my stark warnings that Drakeford's failure to continue restrictions post the fire break, in his determination that a single firebreak was all that was needed, would have consequences and it gives me no pleasure to have been proved correct as Wales heads into a Christmas crisis far worse than England, Scotland or NI
I vaguely recall you opposed the firebreak, period?
I support tiers not national lockdowns but Drakeford opened Wales up the day after the fire break ended and it was all so evident everyone went back to normal many thinking covid was over.
We see the results of that now
A huge fail by Drakeford which may result in a Christmas lockdown in Wales
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
Nothing but tinned snoek and pinhead oatmeal then?
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am not quite sure how Drakeford screwed up so badly -- he is by nature a very, very cautious individual.
As N Wales is pretty low, then it follows that S Wales (Cardiff & the Valleys) are in some trouble.
Let us not forget, this Drakeford screw-up circuit breaker is the very same circuit-breaker that Starmer got so lippy with Boris for not introducing.
Well, Starmer was right to argue for stronger action earlier, and presumably he would have returned to tiered restrictions afterwards just like Johnson has and Drakeford hasn't.
"presumably" doing a lot of heavy lifting there. What common sense might have led you to think was presumable and what politicians have actually done aren't on speaking terms....
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
Thatcher started to introduce the Poll Tax in 1989 and the Tories were 10 points + behind Kinnock's Labour in many polls by summer 1990 after trailing 11% behind Labour in the local elections that year and losing hundreds of Tory councillors, she was deposed and replaced by her Chancellor by Christmas that year.
If we do go to No Deal and Starmer Labour build a big poll lead and the Tories do terribly in the big round of county, district, London, Scottish and Welsh elections next year then Boris will find things start to get difficult, if not they won't
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am not quite sure how Drakeford screwed up so badly -- he is by nature a very, very cautious individual.
As N Wales is pretty low, then it follows that S Wales (Cardiff & the Valleys) are in some trouble.
Let us not forget, this Drakeford screw-up circuit breaker is the very same circuit-breaker that Starmer got so lippy with Boris for not introducing.
Well, Starmer was right to argue for stronger action earlier, and presumably he would have returned to tiered restrictions afterwards just like Johnson has and Drakeford hasn't.
No he wasn't. Boris was right to try the tiering first - Starmer wanted Drakeford's failed circuit break before tiers were even tried so they couldn't have been "returned to" since they would never have been tried in the first place.
Plus those weeks running tiering allowed us to find which tiering worked and which didn't, thus post-lockdown the tiering the country was put in was different to the tiering pre-lockdown.
Thatcher started to introduce the Poll Tax in 1989 and the Tories were 10 points + behind Kinnock's Labour in many polls by summer 1990 after trailing 11% behind Labour in the local elections that year and losing hundreds of Tory councillors, she was deposed and replaced by her Chancellor by Christmas that year.
If we do go to No Deal and Starmer Labour build a big poll lead and the Tories do terribly in the big round of county, district, London, Scottish and Welsh elections next year then Boris will find things start to get difficult, if not they won't
Good point. I was surprised the Councils weren't mentioned. IF we still have Covid and are experiencing negative Brexit effects (both likely) then Brand Boris the Winner won't trump his self-evident weaknesses any longer.
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am sure posters will remember my stark warnings that Drakeford's failure to continue restrictions post the fire break, in his determination that a single firebreak was all that was needed, would have consequences and it gives me no pleasure to have been proved correct as Wales heads into a Christmas crisis far worse than England, Scotland or NI
Opening up the Welsh high streets to a mass of Christmas shopping visitors from Bristol and the West Midlands (whose own non-essential shops were closed) will also, in the final assessment of Covid, have shown the stupidity of different national regimes within the UK.
Tiered restrictions have the same boundary problem, but it's either that or locking down everything according to the needs of the worst-affected areas. Travel restrictions help (even if they can realistically only be enforced symbolically).
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
Yes, the old 'plenty of jars of gherkins' approach of Eastern Europe supermarkets during the Cold War.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
Yes good point. No pasta, but plenty of WD40 and Brasso.
Thatcher started to introduce the Poll Tax in 1989 and the Tories were 10 points + behind Kinnock's Labour by summer 1990 and she was deposed and replaced by her Chancellor by Christmas that year.
If we do go to No Deal and Starmer Labour build a big poll lead and the Tories do terribly in the big round of county, district, London, Scottish and Welsh elections next year then Boris will find things start to get difficult, if not they won't
I think that's right. The nation has largely given the Boris the benefit of the doubt over Covid - black-swan event, no other countries have done much better etc. But if Boris gives us No Deal, after blithely stating that such an event was laughably improbably because he was so clever, then the impression of reckless incompetence will be cemented. People will start asking what the point of Boris is if he can't deliver sunshine. So far he's only given us hail, fog and thunder storms.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am sure posters will remember my stark warnings that Drakeford's failure to continue restrictions post the fire break, in his determination that a single firebreak was all that was needed, would have consequences and it gives me no pleasure to have been proved correct as Wales heads into a Christmas crisis far worse than England, Scotland or NI
I vaguely recall you opposed the firebreak, period?
I believe that is incorrect. Most Welsh posters said that the "short and sharp" firebreak would not be long enough (which I believe is a priori obvious on comparison with the timescales for quarantine).
Welsh posters were unhappy on supermarkets not being allowed to sell non-essential goods -- which Drakeford introduced on the grounds of "fairness".
Especially when Drakeford then recommended use online services like amazon.
The only way there won't be trade negotiations after 1/1/21 is if it's all concluded this week.
Negotiations and discussions with the EU will continue for years if we no deal maybe even to 2024 GE with Labour promising to join the single market and customs union
I doubt that. If the hard right, English nationalist, uber-sovereigntists lose power there will be a lot of very quick negotiating wins that will significantly improve things before any promises about the single market and a CU have to be made.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I would not take that as typical of recent months, if I were you.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I bet you didn't notice or even think how many items are currently being given double shelf space to hide gaps?
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I bet you didn't notice or even think how many items are currently being given double shelf space to hide gaps?
Of course I didn't, which was precisely the point I literally just made!
The only way there won't be trade negotiations after 1/1/21 is if it's all concluded this week.
Negotiations and discussions with the EU will continue for years if we no deal maybe even to 2024 GE with Labour promising to join the single market and customs union
I doubt that. If the hard right, English nationalist, uber-sovereigntists lose power there will be a lot of very quick negotiating wins that will significantly improve things before any promises about the single market and a CU have to be made.
I doubt that. If the hard right, English nationalist, uber-sovereigntists lose power there will be a lot of very quick negotiating wins that will significantly improve things before any promises about the single market and a CU have to be made.
Even today Liz Truss tweeted this
Trade = opportunity = economic growth
At some point, even the dimmest Tory will realise this applies to the EU
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I bet you didn't notice or even think how many items are currently being given double shelf space to hide gaps?
And isn't Aldi a supermarket which has all sorts of changes from week to week anyway? One won't notice gaps because they exist all the time. It's places like Tescos where the gaps will stick out, either visually or when one tries to find one's favourite tomato sauce or pineapple pizza.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I bet you didn't notice or even think how many items are currently being given double shelf space to hide gaps?
To be honest I have a weekly Asda delivery and go to the store on occasions and I have not experienced any shortages recently either on delivery or in store
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I bet you didn't notice or even think how many items are currently being given double shelf space to hide gaps?
And isn't Aldi a supermarket which has all sorts of changes from week to week anyway? One won't notice gaps because they exist all the time. It's places like Tescos where the gaps will stick out, either visually or when one tries to find one's favourite tomato sauce or pineapple pizza.
As long as Lidl doesn't run out of inflatable dinghies, power tools, step ladders, gazebos or ski wear I'll cope.
The only way there won't be trade negotiations after 1/1/21 is if it's all concluded this week.
Negotiations and discussions with the EU will continue for years if we no deal maybe even to 2024 GE with Labour promising to join the single market and customs union
I doubt that. If the hard right, English nationalist, uber-sovereigntists lose power there will be a lot of very quick negotiating wins that will significantly improve things before any promises about the single market and a CU have to be made.
How do they lose power before 2024 though
They won't. My point is that Labour will not need to promise rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union in order to significantly improve on either the no deal or threadbare deal we will have in 2024.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I would not take that as typical of recent months, if I were you.
I would for recent months. I've never seen bare shelves there in recent months, they always keep their shelves full. The only time I've seen empty shelves was back in March when people were panic buying and even then only for a fortnight or so. Within a month the supermarket shelves were full again, albeit not necessarily with the same products they had pre-panic buying.
You guys can't get your stories straight they are illogical. We are supposed to simultaneously believe.
Our farmers are going to struggle to export with the EU and fresh produce will be rotting.
Our supermarkets are going to have empty shelves.
If you can't see the logic fail there then you are beyond help. The 'invisible hand' will find a solution to (1) and (2) that makes (2) impossible to occur.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thatcher started to introduce the Poll Tax in 1989 and the Tories were 10 points + behind Kinnock's Labour in many polls by summer 1990 after trailing 11% behind Labour in the local elections that year and losing hundreds of Tory councillors, she was deposed and replaced by her Chancellor by Christmas that year.
If we do go to No Deal and Starmer Labour build a big poll lead and the Tories do terribly in the big round of county, district, London, Scottish and Welsh elections next year then Boris will find things start to get difficult, if not they won't
Good point. I was surprised the Councils weren't mentioned. IF we still have Covid and are experiencing negative Brexit effects (both likely) then Brand Boris the Winner won't trump his self-evident weaknesses any longer.
Indeed, the bumper round of elections in May will be the biggest outside a general election ever I think with every part of the UK going to the polls
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Thatcher started to introduce the Poll Tax in 1989 and the Tories were 10 points + behind Kinnock's Labour in many polls by summer 1990 after trailing 11% behind Labour in the local elections that year and losing hundreds of Tory councillors, she was deposed and replaced by her Chancellor by Christmas that year.
If we do go to No Deal and Starmer Labour build a big poll lead and the Tories do terribly in the big round of county, district, London, Scottish and Welsh elections next year then Boris will find things start to get difficult, if not they won't
Good point. I was surprised the Councils weren't mentioned. IF we still have Covid and are experiencing negative Brexit effects (both likely) then Brand Boris the Winner won't trump his self-evident weaknesses any longer.
Indeed, the bumper round of elections in May will be the biggest outside a general election ever I think with every part of the UK going to the polls
Yeah, I can’t wait to elect a new North of Tyne Mayor... Not.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
I would not take that as typical of recent months, if I were you.
I would for recent months. I've never seen bare shelves there in recent months, they always keep their shelves full. The only time I've seen empty shelves was back in March when people were panic buying and even then only for a fortnight or so. Within a month the supermarket shelves were full again, albeit not necessarily with the same products they had pre-panic buying.
You guys can't get your stories straight they are illogical. We are supposed to simultaneously believe.
Our farmers are going to struggle to export with the EU and fresh produce will be rotting.
Our supermarkets are going to have empty shelves.
If you can't see the logic fail there then you are beyond help. The 'invisible hand' will find a solution to (1) and (2) that makes (2) impossible to occur.
Farmers do not make everything that is sold in supermarkets, Phil. It will be interesting to see all the lamb in the fruit and veg section at Sainsbury's though.
I've tended to argue long on Boris's PM survival prospects, noting that his career and personal history involves much more 'hanging in there' than standard readings of his life generally acknowledge.
I don't sense he'll just quit, the other possibility here, alimony or no, but hang in to the bitter end.
The other element has been his preparedness to suspend the whip, to play the maths to shore up his position. He has missed opportunities recently, but I think that had been lack of need rather than lack of the will to do that. I think he would use his majority to suspend malcontents and letter writers, I think he would become more amenable to Sturgeon if the polls turned against him.
I think these are dig at the cliff base options though, and no deal Brexit is a wilful dynamite blast that will destabilise the edifice much further. I've switched position to thinking it is all too much, that Boris won't see out 2021 despite the efforts to cling.
I sense HYUFD is right here, that Tory members will cling on to Brexit, and will want someone who can articulate what Brexit is actually for, and (they hope) can administer their way through the wreckage. That's why I think Sunak will not pivot towards a soft EEA style Brexit.
The idea that Boris did even less than May to prepare for the reality of No Deal will be his damning political epitaph. He has double booked hubris and nemesis for interviews, and will be in for a shock when they are sitting chatting cordially when he goes to reception to pick them up.
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am sure posters will remember my stark warnings that Drakeford's failure to continue restrictions post the fire break, in his determination that a single firebreak was all that was needed, would have consequences and it gives me no pleasure to have been proved correct as Wales heads into a Christmas crisis far worse than England, Scotland or NI
I vaguely recall you opposed the firebreak, period?
I believe that is incorrect. Most Welsh posters said that the "short and sharp" firebreak would not be long enough (which I believe is a priori obvious on comparison with the timescales for quarantine).
Welsh posters were unhappy on supermarkets not being allowed to sell non-essential goods -- which Drakeford introduced on the grounds of "fairness".
Especially when Drakeford then recommended use online services like amazon.
I think the issue was the depth of lockdown, it would destroy businesses etc. Actually it is OK to change your mind, no-one has powers of absolute prediction. What we can say with [Captain] hindsight is thank goodness Drakeford did make the call to go hard, given the trend line below, despite a lack of support in some areas. The consequences of not having done so are too horrible to think about.
So good for Drakeford. Not so good he didn't follow up with stronger measures.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Yep - empty shelves and limits on the numbers of items you could buy were pretty common, except at Phil's Aldi it seems.
I literally said it was common during the panic buying period. The country can't, won't and didn't panic buy forever because if you keep panic buying you will end up throwing what you bought into the bin.
The only way there won't be trade negotiations after 1/1/21 is if it's all concluded this week.
Negotiations and discussions with the EU will continue for years if we no deal maybe even to 2024 GE with Labour promising to join the single market and customs union
I doubt that. If the hard right, English nationalist, uber-sovereigntists lose power there will be a lot of very quick negotiating wins that will significantly improve things before any promises about the single market and a CU have to be made.
How do they lose power before 2024 though
Failing to look after the UKs best interests in that they've failed to get a Brexit deal is a really huge chip in that game. However I think it's reasonably clear that the villains will in fact turn out to be the dastardly French.
I can't imagine for a moment though that Boris (or any successor) would be other than pragmatic about the whole EU crisis, and that view will easily carry the day.
Nearing 2024 there's some risk that if the economy hasn't gone so well then some MPs get itchy, but it's almost impossible to see them as turkeys voting for Xmas.
The person to blame is David Cameron, he called the referendum.
Brexiteers will blame someone else for their folly till the day they die...
I'm sure they'll be happy to take the credit in the unlikely event that Brexit is a success.
The responsibility for Brexit lies firmly in the hands of those who campaigned and voted for it. If it is a success, they can claim the credit; if it is a failure, well, they are to blame.
And maybe the remain campaign should have done a lot better
Well, yes, but that's irrelevant to the point I was making. We're doing what the Brexitters wanted to do, so the credit/blame for the outcome goes to them. Simple.
Come now, blame should not be attached to the Leopards Eating Your Face party, particularly if the leopards start biting heads off. The true blame lies with the Leopards Shouldn't Eat Your Face parties for not going along with allowing leopards to chew your ears off.
The person to blame is David Cameron, he called the referendum.
Brexiteers will blame someone else for their folly till the day they die...
I'm sure they'll be happy to take the credit in the unlikely event that Brexit is a success.
The responsibility for Brexit lies firmly in the hands of those who campaigned and voted for it. If it is a success, they can claim the credit; if it is a failure, well, they are to blame.
And maybe the remain campaign should have done a lot better
The Remain campaign was run by the Tories, Mr Wales. It was a shambles. .
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Yep - empty shelves and limits on the numbers of items you could buy were pretty common, except at Phil's Aldi it seems.
I literally said it was common during the panic buying period. The country can't, won't and didn't panic buy forever because if you keep panic buying you will end up throwing what you bought into the bin.
Et voila! And then you will be short and need to buy stuff again.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Yep - empty shelves and limits on the numbers of items you could buy were pretty common, except at Phil's Aldi it seems.
I literally said it was common during the panic buying period. The country can't, won't and didn't panic buy forever because if you keep panic buying you will end up throwing what you bought into the bin.
That depends on what you panic buy. And it's not just panic buying, of course. Take a staple like tinned tomatoes - almost entirely picked, processed and packed in the EU. If supplies run low, there will be more demand than supply. Thus, stocks will diminish. Given we import so much of our food from the EU, we are likely to see that repeated across a number of very standard areas. Of course, we can replace the gaps with lamb, but that may not be particularly helpful.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Yes if people react to no deal with panic buying then there may be some empty shelves for a few days while people panic buy.
Then people's fridges and freezers will be full and they will stop panic buying and the supermarkets will have full shelves again. Just a few days later.
Exactly as happened earlier this year. We didn't go for months with empty shelves, nor will we for months or years to come post-Brexit.
If people start panic buying in the first week of January do you think come the May elections we will still have empty shelves and panic buying going on? Don't be ridiculous! 🤦🏻♂️
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
My local Lidl has not had parmesan for a couple of weeks now. It's Italian, of course...
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Yep - empty shelves and limits on the numbers of items you could buy were pretty common, except at Phil's Aldi it seems.
I literally said it was common during the panic buying period. The country can't, won't and didn't panic buy forever because if you keep panic buying you will end up throwing what you bought into the bin.
That depends on what you panic buy. And it's not just panic buying, of course. Take a staple like tinned tomatoes - almost entirely picked, processed and packed in the EU. If supplies run low, there will be more demand than supply. Thus, stocks will diminish. Given we import so much of our food from the EU, we are likely to see that repeated across a number of very standard areas. Of course, we can replace the gaps with lamb, but that may not be particularly helpful.
Or the shops can jack up the prices. Someone on PB was referring to Adam Smith's invisible hand.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
How many people did? Did 17.4 million people call 999 due to KFC?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
You haven't been to a supermarket recently, have you Phil?
I was in my local Aldi earlier today. Every single shelf was full. Union Flags galore.
Wales was the only part of the UK where Covid infection rates were not falling at the end of November, the health minister has said.
Vaughan Gething said it reflected tighter UK restrictions elsewhere. He confirmed ministers were considering whether any new restrictions would be needed after the Christmas relaxation of rules.
AFTER....be too bloody late by then. As for "our rates are going up", cos other places harsher restrictions is absolute nonsense.
What the chart in the articles shows is although Scotland haven't managed to totally squish it, they have been a quicker than England to impose things like ban on household mixing and kept at it longer than Wales, and thus managed to avoid the big uptick.
Scotland also shows, because it has been in a fairly consistent tier system for a while now, that you need to be in Tier 3 if you want to keep the infection rate steady. (Tier 4 / lockdown if you need to bring it down quickly). At current compliance rates. Hopefully the vaccine will take the edge off that, so we can move first to Tier 2 and then 1. But we have some way to go yet and it will be a tough three or four months, for several reasons.
Agreed. The restrictions Wales brought in on Friday are modelled on Scottish level 3, which is unlikely to be good enough when cases are already at 300/week/100,000 and still rising.
Speaking of which, 2,021 cases in Wales today, after only 802 last Monday, taking the 7-day average per 100,000 to 339. This is looking really bad.
(It's now also overtaken the pre-circuitbreak high of 302, which means the circuitbreak bought five weeks altogether.)
I am sure posters will remember my stark warnings that Drakeford's failure to continue restrictions post the fire break, in his determination that a single firebreak was all that was needed, would have consequences and it gives me no pleasure to have been proved correct as Wales heads into a Christmas crisis far worse than England, Scotland or NI
I vaguely recall you opposed the firebreak, period?
I believe that is incorrect. Most Welsh posters said that the "short and sharp" firebreak would not be long enough (which I believe is a priori obvious on comparison with the timescales for quarantine).
Welsh posters were unhappy on supermarkets not being allowed to sell non-essential goods -- which Drakeford introduced on the grounds of "fairness".
Especially when Drakeford then recommended use online services like amazon.
Actually it is OK to change your mind,
Absolutely. This is a completely new disease. It has existed for only a year. U-Turns are the most natural thing in the world.
So, how ridiculous of the Daily Mail or SKS to be always quibbling about U-turns.
With a completely new disease that noone has encountered before, then trial & error is the most natural thing in the world -- and hence U-turns when something does not work are also completely natural.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Also, that was a one-off demand spike; people bought loads because they didn't know how long they were stocking up for. And after that, demand went down. Partly because people had stuff at home, but also because people stayed home because they were afraid to go out. So after the wobble, most things settled down again very quickly.
Here, the concern is about a permanent change to the equilibrium- what things are going to be more expensive to bring into the country, what things aren't going to be worth attempting because of delays or the tiny margins that supermarkets run on? That's going to take much longer to stabilise.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
How many people did? Did 17.4 million people call 999 due to KFC?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
I don't think you realise how hand to mouth - and how dependent on processed food - a lot of families are because of cash and time pressures. Not being able to get a pizza, for instance, can disrupt plans and routines. That is what is being ignored in the discussion, I think.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Yes if people react to no deal with panic buying then there may be some empty shelves for a few days while people panic buy.
Then people's fridges and freezers will be full and they will stop panic buying and the supermarkets will have full shelves again. Just a few days later.
Exactly as happened earlier this year. We didn't go for months with empty shelves, nor will we for months or years to come post-Brexit.
If people start panic buying in the first week of January do you think come the May elections we will still have empty shelves and panic buying going on? Don't be ridiculous! 🤦🏻♂️
It's a completely different situation, though. The empty shelves earlier this year were temporary because there wasn't actually any shortage of food. In January next year, though, it is quite possible that food imports won't be sufficient to keep up with demand, which would lead to real shortages and sky-rocketing prices. And then of course, you'll have panic buying on top of this as people realise that food actually is in short supply.
I'm hopeful that the shortages will be limited to fresh fruit and veg, but the potential is there for wider shortages.
The person to blame is David Cameron, he called the referendum.
Brexiteers will blame someone else for their folly till the day they die...
I'm sure they'll be happy to take the credit in the unlikely event that Brexit is a success.
The responsibility for Brexit lies firmly in the hands of those who campaigned and voted for it. If it is a success, they can claim the credit; if it is a failure, well, they are to blame.
And maybe the remain campaign should have done a lot better
The Remain campaign was run by the Tories, Mr Wales. It was a shambles. .
Panic-buying isn't the medium term issue for Brexit; it's shortages of some foodstuffs. There will be less choice and what there is becomes more expensive.
Brexit Britain is East Germany without the Stasi. Most East Germans got on with it.
Tory members will cling on to Brexit, and will want someone who can articulate what Brexit is actually for
BoZo was that guy
Brexit was for "getting done"
It's done.
And it's shit.
You think your former fellows aren't mad enough to cling on to the precious in the face of a much higher tsunami of reason? This is the Tory membership, not the general public. Never overestimate them on this subject.
Boris was never a true believer, it was just ambition, Sunak is the real deal etc. etc. Blame anything but Brexit
This is the ruthless election winning machine that once chose IDS after all.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
I am not sure what panic buying has to do with supplies being slowed down or shut off because of border hold-ups. If supplies reduce, people can carry on buying at their normal rate and there will still be shortages.
What Phil is telling us is that there is going to be less choice. We will have more lamb and mackerel to buy, but fewer of the staples that are currently largely supplied from the EU. Phil sees this as a good thing. Others may not.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Yes if people react to no deal with panic buying then there may be some empty shelves for a few days while people panic buy.
Then people's fridges and freezers will be full and they will stop panic buying and the supermarkets will have full shelves again. Just a few days later.
Exactly as happened earlier this year. We didn't go for months with empty shelves, nor will we for months or years to come post-Brexit.
If people start panic buying in the first week of January do you think come the May elections we will still have empty shelves and panic buying going on? Don't be ridiculous! 🤦🏻♂️
I have no idea what the actual supply situation was in March. According to the supermarkets, there might not have been an actual problem, but there were those empty shelves nevertheless. Now, it is likely, although I appreciate this is coming from experts so we're slightly in limbo here, that we will have actual supply chain disruption in January.
So previously we (might have) had no actual disruption to supply and panic buying resulted in empty shelves for a matter of weeks. In Jan we might have actual disruption to supply. What do you think might happen then?
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Also, that was a one-off demand spike; people bought loads because they didn't know how long they were stocking up for. And after that, demand went down. Partly because people had stuff at home, but also because people stayed home because they were afraid to go out. So after the wobble, most things settled down again very quickly.
Here, the concern is about a permanent change to the equilibrium- what things are going to be more expensive to bring into the country, what things aren't going to be worth attempting because of delays or the tiny margins that supermarkets run on? That's going to take much longer to stabilise.
The supermarkets will find a way to keep the shelves full, even if there's some substitution.
Supermarkets can't afford to keep shelves empty for long so they put something else in - and if the shelves are full people won't see it as being empty.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
How many people did? Did 17.4 million people call 999 due to KFC ?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
I don't think you realise how hand to mouth - and how dependent on processed food - a lot of families are because of cash and time pressures. Not being able to get a pizza, for instance, can disrupt plans and routines. That is what is being ignored in the discussion, I think.
given half the UK is being told to stay at home where are the time pressures ? You cant actually go anywhere much except the supermarket.
Panic-buying isn't the medium term issue for Brexit; it's shortages of some foodstuffs. There will be less choice and what there is becomes more expensive.
Brexit Britain is East Germany without the Stasi. Most East Germans got on with it.
It was better than what had come before - ie, extreme hunger during and after WW2. We will not be going through the same cycle.
Tory members will cling on to Brexit, and will want someone who can articulate what Brexit is actually for
BoZo was that guy
Brexit was for "getting done"
It's done.
And it's shit.
You think your former fellows aren't mad enough to cling on to the precious in the face of a much higher tsunami of reason? This is the Tory membership, not the general public. Never overestimate them on this subject.
Boris was never a true believer, it was just ambition, Sunak is the real deal etc. etc. Blame anything but Brexit
This is the ruthless election winning machine that once chose IDS after all.
This is the ruthless election winning machine that never let IDS anywhere near leading them into an election....
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Yes if people react to no deal with panic buying then there may be some empty shelves for a few days while people panic buy.
Then people's fridges and freezers will be full and they will stop panic buying and the supermarkets will have full shelves again. Just a few days later.
Exactly as happened earlier this year. We didn't go for months with empty shelves, nor will we for months or years to come post-Brexit.
If people start panic buying in the first week of January do you think come the May elections we will still have empty shelves and panic buying going on? Don't be ridiculous! 🤦🏻♂️
I have no idea what the actual supply situation was in March. According to the supermarkets, there might not have been an actual problem, but there were those empty shelves nevertheless. Now, it is likely, although I appreciate this is coming from experts so we're slightly in limbo here, that we will have actual supply chain disruption in January.
So previously we (might have) had no actual disruption and panic buying resulted in empty shelves for a matter of weeks. In Jan we might have actual disruption. What do you think might happen then?
I'd like to see an actual supermarket expert say that there will be disruption or empty shelves.
Every time I've seen a supermarket boss interviewed they've said they will be able to cope, even if there might be temporary disruption to some product lines, which is exactly what I was saying. The "experts" agree with me.
Lol @ PT’s “people won’t notice gaps on supermarket shelves because they’ll be hidden with other stuff” argument.
Most people tend to go into supermarkets with shopping lists of things they want to buy. When they can’t buy half the things on the list they’re not going to just shrug and say “ah well, obviously there just wasn’t space for the supermarket to fit them in”!
And actually supermarkets won’t just cover all the gaps - because that will just make customers even more angry that they’re wasting time looking for stuff that isn’t there. At least an empty shelf, clearly labelled, saves them the bother of looking.
The person to blame is David Cameron, he called the referendum.
Brexiteers will blame someone else for their folly till the day they die...
I'm sure they'll be happy to take the credit in the unlikely event that Brexit is a success.
The responsibility for Brexit lies firmly in the hands of those who campaigned and voted for it. If it is a success, they can claim the credit; if it is a failure, well, they are to blame.
And maybe the remain campaign should have done a lot better
The Remain campaign was run by the Tories, Mr Wales. It was a shambles. .
So Labour stood on the sidelines again then
Actually, the best campaign of the lot was arguably led by Labour Leave....
The person to blame is David Cameron, he called the referendum.
Brexiteers will blame someone else for their folly till the day they die...
I'm sure they'll be happy to take the credit in the unlikely event that Brexit is a success.
The responsibility for Brexit lies firmly in the hands of those who campaigned and voted for it. If it is a success, they can claim the credit; if it is a failure, well, they are to blame.
And maybe the remain campaign should have done a lot better
The Remain campaign was run by the Tories, Mr Wales. It was a shambles. .
Happened to be discussing the apportionment of blame with a good friend this morning.
We agreed that you must start at the top with the most blame allocated to those with most power, so that would be the EU itself. At the bottom the voters, whilst not blameless shoulder the least responsibity. In between, Cameron, the ERG, both major Parties, Jeremy Corbyn, and the Press are all well-worthy of mention, but you can add your own favorites according to taste.
Corbyn and the Labour Party figure quite high for me because they are supposed to be representing and helping the very people most vulnerable to the consequences of Brexit.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
How many people did? Did 17.4 million people call 999 due to KFC ?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
I don't think you realise how hand to mouth - and how dependent on processed food - a lot of families are because of cash and time pressures. Not being able to get a pizza, for instance, can disrupt plans and routines. That is what is being ignored in the discussion, I think.
given half the UK is being told to stay at home where are the time pressures ? You cant actually go anywhere much except the supermarket.
People have to go to work and children to school. It's common to have a family with the children home and hungry at 5pm, and one adult not till 7, and so on ...
Meals such as pizzas and so on help a lot, but if they cannot be obtained reliably ... it will be interesting to see what happens.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Yep - empty shelves and limits on the numbers of items you could buy were pretty common, except at Phil's Aldi it seems.
I literally said it was common during the panic buying period. The country can't, won't and didn't panic buy forever because if you keep panic buying you will end up throwing what you bought into the bin.
That depends on what you panic buy. And it's not just panic buying, of course. Take a staple like tinned tomatoes - almost entirely picked, processed and packed in the EU. If supplies run low, there will be more demand than supply. Thus, stocks will diminish. Given we import so much of our food from the EU, we are likely to see that repeated across a number of very standard areas. Of course, we can replace the gaps with lamb, but that may not be particularly helpful.
Or the shops can jack up the prices. Someone on PB was referring to Adam Smith's invisible hand.
Of course - less supply will lead to higher prices.
If we get No Deal - which is starting to look horrifying possible - then the pressure for Boris to resign will be formidable. It will amount to the greatest political failure in modern British history, making Black Wednesday look like a pasty tax in comparison. There will be absolutely no reason, either for himself or anyone else, for Boris to hang around a moment longer.
Not sure. We have now normalised empty shelves via Covid. Plus no one* will notice the extra administrative burden, to whatever degree it manifests itself, save for a "weren't these Stroopwafels a bit cheaper last week" type of thing. So there is a lot of leeway for absolute total fuck up that Boris can paint as near-normal.
I have been prominent on here saying he will go (I have nine more months of my bet to run) on the basis of logic. It was obvious from the moment that TMay took office that she was manifestly unfit for it and hence was, to quote a noted newspaper editor, a "dead man walking".
Boris is equally unfit to be PM. And he will fall. Just not in 24-hr rolling news time. People who are manifestly unfit for high office generally don't stay as PM for that long. cf J Corbyn.
That said, he does look sticky because all his failings are often waved away as the behaviour of a lovable scallywag.
*no one apart those who are filling out the forms and adhering to the new system, obvs.
Ordinarily he and many of his cabinet colleagues would have been marched out of office by now. Lying and corruption aren't usually politically survivable, yet the bar to serve in a senior role appears to be having been sacked for one or the other previously.
People won't realise how bad this is until it slaps them in the face. Customs checks whether under a deal or WTO will bring the UK supply chain to a crashing halt. When it gets untangled we'll find that we're paying a lot more for less things and every retailer and manufacturer and supplier will be saying why, intercut with the reporters embedded with the 48 hour queues to cross the channel.
"This isn't the Brexit we voted for" - big price rises, mass shortages, mass unemployment. You can't hide the impacts of the end of the free market and free customs, or blame it on the other party, or positively spin it as better than what we had. As reality collapses in on people Johnson will be gone. At speed.
There usually needs to be a catalyst and your final paragraph paints a reasonably possible picture of that catalyst. But as I said we have had empty shelves in very recent memory so I'm not 100% sure he won't have a get out.
There is another factor that means we won't have empty shelves - supermarkets are quite deliberately dynamic. If a produce is unavailable and won't be available for a while they don't generally just put an "out of stock" label on its spot and leave that bit of their shelving empty - they fill the space with something else. They put a different product up instead, or they fill in with other products that would be next to it instead. So the shelves remain "full" (depending upon normal variance of how recently they were restocked) even if products are "unavailable".
If Rochdale wants to say I am wrong then let him say how I am wrong and why.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Phil this is what the real world looked like earlier this year.
Thanks to panic buying which stopped in a matter of days because then people had full fridges and freezers. Its a self-correcting problem that can't go on forever.
Exactly. I appreciate it when you agree with something rather than try to argue the opposite. Thanks.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Yes if people react to no deal with panic buying then there may be some empty shelves for a few days while people panic buy.
Then people's fridges and freezers will be full and they will stop panic buying and the supermarkets will have full shelves again. Just a few days later.
Exactly as happened earlier this year. We didn't go for months with empty shelves, nor will we for months or years to come post-Brexit.
If people start panic buying in the first week of January do you think come the May elections we will still have empty shelves and panic buying going on? Don't be ridiculous! 🤦🏻♂️
I have no idea what the actual supply situation was in March. According to the supermarkets, there might not have been an actual problem, but there were those empty shelves nevertheless. Now, it is likely, although I appreciate this is coming from experts so we're slightly in limbo here, that we will have actual supply chain disruption in January.
So previously we (might have) had no actual disruption to supply and panic buying resulted in empty shelves for a matter of weeks. In Jan we might have actual disruption to supply. What do you think might happen then?
Cummings is right about the superforecasters book, it is excellent.
But the funny bit is that Cummings seems to be the antithesis of what it recommends. Superforecasters recommends rapid evolution, frequently making small changes. It says iteration works and revolutions don't.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
How many people did? Did 17.4 million people call 999 due to KFC ?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
I don't think you realise how hand to mouth - and how dependent on processed food - a lot of families are because of cash and time pressures. Not being able to get a pizza, for instance, can disrupt plans and routines. That is what is being ignored in the discussion, I think.
given half the UK is being told to stay at home where are the time pressures ? You cant actually go anywhere much except the supermarket.
And the pox is supposed to be gone come spring. [So we are told.]
Interesting but a bit thin. Pro EU people had 40 years + to persuade the UK that a FTA/CU and FoM and 'ever closer union' politically + the Euro had to go together. Politicians of all parties constantly presented the EU as a regrettable necessity/accident and instead of shaping the EU in accord with majority UK conviction kept pretending it wasn't what it seemed.
The case for unfettered FoM is wafer thin once countries of radically differing economic background are members. The case that this isn't intended to be a political union disappears once the Euro gets going.
The pro EU case failed because too few people truly believed the whole message. probably Blair did - but even Brown didn't.
And it kept being obvious that the political class did not want to test public opinion because they knew we shared their doubts.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
People called 999 when KFC ran short
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
How many people did? Did 17.4 million people call 999 due to KFC ?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
I don't think you realise how hand to mouth - and how dependent on processed food - a lot of families are because of cash and time pressures. Not being able to get a pizza, for instance, can disrupt plans and routines. That is what is being ignored in the discussion, I think.
given half the UK is being told to stay at home where are the time pressures ? You cant actually go anywhere much except the supermarket.
People have to go to work and children to school. It's common to have a family with the children home and hungry at 5pm, and one adult not till 7, and so on ...
Meals such as pizzas and so on help a lot, but if they cannot be obtained reliably ... it will be interesting to see what happens.
I take it you cant cook.
Knocking up a hot meal is a doddle whatever your budget.
Comments
We see the results of that now
A huge fail by Drakeford which may result in a Christmas lockdown in Wales
But of course, you know best.
Plus those weeks running tiering allowed us to find which tiering worked and which didn't, thus post-lockdown the tiering the country was put in was different to the tiering pre-lockdown.
Welsh posters were unhappy on supermarkets not being allowed to sell non-essential goods -- which Drakeford introduced on the grounds of "fairness".
Especially when Drakeford then recommended use online services like amazon.
EG am I wrong and does his supermarket deliberately leave shelves empty when a stock is unavailable for a significant period of time or am I right and the supermarket will change the tickets and put different stock on the shelves instead?
Trade = opportunity = economic growth
At some point, even the dimmest Tory will realise this applies to the EU
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51883440
You guys can't get your stories straight they are illogical. We are supposed to simultaneously believe.
- Our farmers are going to struggle to export with the EU and fresh produce will be rotting.
- Our supermarkets are going to have empty shelves.
If you can't see the logic fail there then you are beyond help. The 'invisible hand' will find a solution to (1) and (2) that makes (2) impossible to occur.Apart from the shelves that were empty.
We have always been at war with eastasia...
I don't sense he'll just quit, the other possibility here, alimony or no, but hang in to the bitter end.
The other element has been his preparedness to suspend the whip, to play the maths to shore up his position. He has missed opportunities recently, but I think that had been lack of need rather than lack of the will to do that. I think he would use his majority to suspend malcontents and letter writers, I think he would become more amenable to Sturgeon if the polls turned against him.
I think these are dig at the cliff base options though, and no deal Brexit is a wilful dynamite blast that will destabilise the edifice much further. I've switched position to thinking it is all too much, that Boris won't see out 2021 despite the efforts to cling.
I sense HYUFD is right here, that Tory members will cling on to Brexit, and will want someone who can articulate what Brexit is actually for, and (they hope) can administer their way through the wreckage. That's why I think Sunak will not pivot towards a soft EEA style Brexit.
The idea that Boris did even less than May to prepare for the reality of No Deal will be his damning political epitaph. He has double booked hubris and nemesis for interviews, and will be in for a shock when they are sitting chatting cordially when he goes to reception to pick them up.
So good for Drakeford. Not so good he didn't follow up with stronger measures.
I can't imagine for a moment though that Boris (or any successor) would be other than pragmatic about the whole EU crisis, and that view will easily carry the day.
Nearing 2024 there's some risk that if the economy hasn't gone so well then some MPs get itchy, but it's almost impossible to see them as turkeys voting for Xmas.
2024 - nailed on
Brexit was for "getting done"
It's done.
And it's shit.
.
There were empty shelves because of panic buying. That's just the public for you I know what can you do but don't forget a lot of these people also voted for Brexit so we can't make any calls on their intelligence or common sense.
There were empty shelves then and there may very well be empty shelves again.
Nexty time it's going to be what.
Fresh mackerel and swedes won't do.
Food shortages due to Brexit will not be met with stoicism
Then people's fridges and freezers will be full and they will stop panic buying and the supermarkets will have full shelves again. Just a few days later.
Exactly as happened earlier this year. We didn't go for months with empty shelves, nor will we for months or years to come post-Brexit.
If people start panic buying in the first week of January do you think come the May elections we will still have empty shelves and panic buying going on? Don't be ridiculous! 🤦🏻♂️
How well will we fare when they are deliberately sabotaged by Brexit?
The UK did react to food shortages with stoicism as recently as March. We got through it and life went on.
So, how ridiculous of the Daily Mail or SKS to be always quibbling about U-turns.
https://tinyurl.com/y62k94vg
With a completely new disease that noone has encountered before, then trial & error is the most natural thing in the world -- and hence U-turns when something does not work are also completely natural.
Here, the concern is about a permanent change to the equilibrium- what things are going to be more expensive to bring into the country, what things aren't going to be worth attempting because of delays or the tiny margins that supermarkets run on? That's going to take much longer to stabilise.
I'm hopeful that the shortages will be limited to fresh fruit and veg, but the potential is there for wider shortages.
Brexit Britain is East Germany without the Stasi. Most East Germans got on with it.
Boris was never a true believer, it was just ambition, Sunak is the real deal etc. etc. Blame anything but Brexit
This is the ruthless election winning machine that once chose IDS after all.
What Phil is telling us is that there is going to be less choice. We will have more lamb and mackerel to buy, but fewer of the staples that are currently largely supplied from the EU. Phil sees this as a good thing. Others may not.
So previously we (might have) had no actual disruption to supply and panic buying resulted in empty shelves for a matter of weeks. In Jan we might have actual disruption to supply. What do you think might happen then?
Some spoke about a shortage of parmesan, if need be people might see supermarkets selling "Italian style hard cheese" instead. 🤷🏻♂️
https://groceries.morrisons.com/products/greenside-deli-italian-hard-cheese-525275011
Supermarkets can't afford to keep shelves empty for long so they put something else in - and if the shelves are full people won't see it as being empty.
Every time I've seen a supermarket boss interviewed they've said they will be able to cope, even if there might be temporary disruption to some product lines, which is exactly what I was saying. The "experts" agree with me.
Most people tend to go into supermarkets with shopping lists of things they want to buy. When they can’t buy half the things on the list they’re not going to just shrug and say “ah well, obviously there just wasn’t space for the supermarket to fit them in”!
And actually supermarkets won’t just cover all the gaps - because that will just make customers even more angry that they’re wasting time looking for stuff that isn’t there. At least an empty shelf, clearly labelled, saves them the bother of looking.
We agreed that you must start at the top with the most blame allocated to those with most power, so that would be the EU itself. At the bottom the voters, whilst not blameless shoulder the least responsibity. In between, Cameron, the ERG, both major Parties, Jeremy Corbyn, and the Press are all well-worthy of mention, but you can add your own favorites according to taste.
Corbyn and the Labour Party figure quite high for me because they are supposed to be representing and helping the very people most vulnerable to the consequences of Brexit.
Meals such as pizzas and so on help a lot, but if they cannot be obtained reliably ... it will be interesting to see what happens.
Oh the horror
But the funny bit is that Cummings seems to be the antithesis of what it recommends. Superforecasters recommends rapid evolution, frequently making small changes. It says iteration works and revolutions don't.
The case for unfettered FoM is wafer thin once countries of radically differing economic background are members. The case that this isn't intended to be a political union disappears once the Euro gets going.
The pro EU case failed because too few people truly believed the whole message. probably Blair did - but even Brown didn't.
And it kept being obvious that the political class did not want to test public opinion because they knew we shared their doubts.
Knocking up a hot meal is a doddle whatever your budget.