F1: with traffic likely a problem in qualifying I've decided to be a bit safety first and hedge Verstappen and Bottas a bit more for the race win. Essentially flat if anyone else wins, and positive if they do, or come second, or if the Racing Points/Albon are top 2.
If the F2 qualy session is anything to go by, they’ll all be tripping over each other and half the field will be out of position from where you’d expect them to be. It’s going to be a 53-second lap, which is going to be a complete mess with 20 cars. Staying away from Betfair personally, until tomorrow.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Anyone want any odds on the chances of Labour explicitly having 'we will reapply for membership of the EU' in their manifesto?
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Surely is it obvious that "circuit-breakers" do nothing to solve the problem? At the end of each circuit-break the virus is still there.
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
It’s not black and white though. Circuit breakers are not the answer, but neither do they do nothing. They do help though. The question is by how much?
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
There is a difference
Those industries were dying, the fishing industry is not and hence the battle for fish.
The Scots fishermen have a right to protect their industry
'We demand the inalienable right to sell large chunks of our quota to the foreigns!'
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
That will be the Tory East Coast Fishing Federation Millionaires then I presume.
In my Scottish Fishing Family the vast majority are just hard working honest fishermen involved in a perilous occupation
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
I suspect dealing with China is going to be a problem for Britain. This country has not, historically, had a good relationship with China, and indeed in the mid and late the 19thC threw it's weight about when dealing with what it apparently arrogantly perceived to be a failing and inferior state. Now that state, rejuvenated, is neither weak nor failing and I fear that the saying about revenge applies.
All nations deal or dealt arrogantly with nations less powerful than them. China certainly has in the past and does now, and nurses grievances from that time as a strategy, but do we think theyd be less inclined to throw their weight around if we'd been nicer back then? No, that just gives them flimsy pretext, but it's as much a joke as when we talk about the Treaty of Troyes as a reason to treat the French bad, only they pretend it's not a joke. China will do what it will do, but I highly doubt 19th C actions play any genuine part of their calculations.
So yes itll be a problem for us, but not really for that reason. Really we've had little historical relations with them at all compared to their neighbours.
Indeed, now Hong Kong is no longer a British Colony our relationships with China are not that important compared to those with the EU, it is over the other side of the world after all and only 3% of our exports go to China.
Even if we want to be global Britain we must remember France is our nearest continental neighbour just across the channel, a key NATO ally and a key member of the EU to whom we still sell 48% of our exports, this Macron spat over fishing needs to be resolved for both our sakes
The problem is that Redwood et al do not wish this fundamental reality to be true. They actively wish to redirect our trade away from the EU. which they consider to be a strategic competitor, not an ally. They are already discussing alliances with Russia, which they consider to be an historic partner, rather than a neo-fascist kleptostate. They are trapped in WWII thinking and despite the loss of Empire and all the rest of it (which, BTW they think CANZUK would partly restore) they believe that the British manifest destiny is to sit at the right hand of the US and decree the judgement of nations, despite having no means to enforce this. It is stupid. It is ignorant and arrogant. Most of all it is hubris.
Meanwhile the EU has plenty of means to disrupt the gadfly, up to and including supporting the break up of the UK. Canada, Australia and New Zealand now look to indigenous traditions at least as much to the tarnished Imperial past. So the fact is that although these people would actively prefer no deal, since any deal, by definition, would be a betrayal of our manifest global destiny, they are doomed to failure. The USA of course will continue the pressure that they have exerted over most of the past century: "we took their empire, they have yet to find a role".
It goes without saying that none of these deluded people are in business, and very few have studied economics or history. This circle of delusion will evaporate when the long predicted economic mess unfolds precisely as "project fear" foretold. Over the course of the next decade the current UK will revert to some kind of Europeanism, whether as one -humiliated- state or as several. Personally the judgement of history on these fools will be severe- and rightly so.
To be fair to Redwood he has a history phd and finance experience but yes as Blair correctly said last week we cannot ignore Europe even if we wanted too, in the 21st century there will be 3 superpowers, China, the US and maybe India who will largely look after their own interests, then there will be taller nations like Indonesia and Brazil and Russia and we will be another medium power on the next rung down. We will have to work with our European allies to make our collective voice heard on the world stage even outside the EU and it will remain our largest single export destination
Just shows having a degree does not make you intelligent. The man is a raving loony , albeit he can read books and pass exams. How these moronic pygmies get to where they are is amazing.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
The EU worries that the UK might somehow cheat; the UK fears the EU wants to tie it down and dictate its rules. It’s asking a lot of any deal to salve these kinds of concerns. But leaders on both sides of these negotiations need to take a hard-headed look at the underlying issues and their respective interests, and recognise that a deal would at least allow us to start to address differences, some of which have built up over a long time. We build, or rebuild, trust by finding ways of working together, not by turning our backs.
It's been clear for some time that Ireland are very keen for practical to do a deal. Also clear that the French for other reasons entirely are much less keen.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Anyone want any odds on the chances of Labour explicitly having 'we will reapply for membership of the EU' in their manifesto?
If we go to No Deal in January and it proves a disaster with mass unemployment etc and tensions across the Union and as unpopular in the polls as the poll tax was then I think that is quite likely, however I think if that was the case Tory MPs would take fright and replace Boris with Sunak to get a deal as they did in 1990 when they replaced Thatcher with Major who then dumped the poll tax
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
I suspect dealing with China is going to be a problem for Britain. This country has not, historically, had a good relationship with China, and indeed in the mid and late the 19thC threw it's weight about when dealing with what it apparently arrogantly perceived to be a failing and inferior state. Now that state, rejuvenated, is neither weak nor failing and I fear that the saying about revenge applies.
All nations deal or dealt arrogantly with nations less powerful than them. China certainly has in the past and does now, and nurses grievances from that time as a strategy, but do we think theyd be less inclined to throw their weight around if we'd been nicer back then? No, that just gives them flimsy pretext, but it's as much a joke as when we talk about the Treaty of Troyes as a reason to treat the French bad, only they pretend it's not a joke. China will do what it will do, but I highly doubt 19th C actions play any genuine part of their calculations.
So yes itll be a problem for us, but not really for that reason. Really we've had little historical relations with them at all compared to their neighbours.
Indeed, now Hong Kong is no longer a British Colony our relationships with China are not that important compared to those with the EU, it is over the other side of the world after all and only 3% of our exports go to China.
Even if we want to be global Britain we must remember France is our nearest continental neighbour just across the channel, a key NATO ally and a key member of the EU to whom we still sell 48% of our exports, this Macron spat over fishing needs to be resolved for both our sakes
The problem is that Redwood et al do not wish this fundamental reality to be true. They actively wish to redirect our trade away from the EU. which they consider to be a strategic competitor, not an ally. They are already discussing alliances with Russia, which they consider to be an historic partner, rather than a neo-fascist kleptostate. They are trapped in WWII thinking and despite the loss of Empire and all the rest of it (which, BTW they think CANZUK would partly restore) they believe that the British manifest destiny is to sit at the right hand of the US and decree the judgement of nations, despite having no means to enforce this. It is stupid. It is ignorant and arrogant. Most of all it is hubris.
Meanwhile the EU has plenty of means to disrupt the gadfly, up to and including supporting the break up of the UK. Canada, Australia and New Zealand now look to indigenous traditions at least as much to the tarnished Imperial past. So the fact is that although these people would actively prefer no deal, since any deal, by definition, would be a betrayal of our manifest global destiny, they are doomed to failure. The USA of course will continue the pressure that they have exerted over most of the past century: "we took their empire, they have yet to find a role".
It goes without saying that none of these deluded people are in business, and very few have studied economics or history. This circle of delusion will evaporate when the long predicted economic mess unfolds precisely as "project fear" foretold. Over the course of the next decade the current UK will revert to some kind of Europeanism, whether as one -humiliated- state or as several. Personally the judgement of history on these fools will be severe- and rightly so.
To be fair to Redwood he has a history phd and finance experience but yes as Blair correctly said last week we cannot ignore Europe even if we wanted too, in the 21st century there will be 3 superpowers, China, the US and maybe India who will largely look after their own interests, then there will be taller nations like Indonesia and Brazil and Russia and we will be another medium power on the next rung down. We will have to work with our European allies to make our collective voice heard on the world stage even outside the EU and it will remain our largest single export destination
Just shows having a degree does not make you intelligent. The man is a raving loony , albeit he can read books and pass exams. How these moronic pygmies get to where they are is amazing.
Redwood was highly intelligent in his youth. But history is littered with such people who became mad, bad or staggeringly stupid in their old age.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
Disagree. Fishing is about the only win from Brexit. It makes sense (if you decide to Brexit anyway) to go all out on your positive.
How is it a win? The fishermen may want to go back to the 60s and 70s were they cleaned the seas of fish and collapsed the fish stocks, but to whom will they sell this mountain? We are cutting off their single biggest market. Ditto for lamb...
The EU worries that the UK might somehow cheat; the UK fears the EU wants to tie it down and dictate its rules. It’s asking a lot of any deal to salve these kinds of concerns. But leaders on both sides of these negotiations need to take a hard-headed look at the underlying issues and their respective interests, and recognise that a deal would at least allow us to start to address differences, some of which have built up over a long time. We build, or rebuild, trust by finding ways of working together, not by turning our backs.
It's been clear for some time that Ireland are very keen for practical to do a deal. Also clear that the French for other reasons entirely are much less keen.
The irony is the Irish Fishermen have similar issues with the French
The EU worries that the UK might somehow cheat; the UK fears the EU wants to tie it down and dictate its rules. It’s asking a lot of any deal to salve these kinds of concerns. But leaders on both sides of these negotiations need to take a hard-headed look at the underlying issues and their respective interests, and recognise that a deal would at least allow us to start to address differences, some of which have built up over a long time. We build, or rebuild, trust by finding ways of working together, not by turning our backs.
This is where the EU does actually need to compromise. Not on specific measures, but to trust a partner that has shown itself to be untrustworthy, in a context where the EU is in protection mode and the easiest way to protect themselves is to shut the UK out. The reason for this trust is strategic because it provides a basis for a future relationship that will hopefully be improved.
Incidentally this doesn't apply in reverse. If the UK was worried about trust it would stay in the European Union. The EU is a formalisation of commitments.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
Prior to being a Brexit internet loudmouth, Adonis' biggest achievement was being a pointless answer on Pointless for "Members of Gordon Brown's cabinet", so he probably doesn't have much else to do.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Not just the PB experts but Whitty, Vallance and the other scientific 'experts' thought it a good idea as well.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Doubt it. If there is a serious mess there will be plenty of blame to spread around "Why are the French imposing checks when we're not, why are we queuing with "Others" when EU visitors use our e-gates at passport control (that won't last long) and so forth. If there's a mess it will be on both sides of the channel.
Over 60% of voters think a No Deal Brexit would be bad for Britain according to a poll last month, only 37% think it would be a good outcome. Even if every No Deal Brexit supporter voted Tory in 2024 then the Tory voteshare would still be 6% down on 2019 and the Tories would almost certainly lose power
483 deaths from Covid in Germany today - second highest the worst just a few days ago. Ominous signs in several Spanish Autonomous Communities of cases starting to tick upwards again even before the Xmas relaxation period starts - with no significant vaccination programme much before March.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
I've been gone a few days - what's going on with HYUFD branching out from just publishing polls and actually making some sensible posts that even seem to tentatively realise that the Government has got itself in a complete mess?
483 deaths from Covid in Germany today - second highest the worst just a few days ago. Ominous signs in several Spanish Autonomous Communities of cases starting to tick upwards again even before the Xmas relaxation period starts - with no significant vaccination programme much before March.
This is why I'm still anxious that it could all go wrong once again after Christmas due to the relaxation of restrictions. I just hope that we actually have a fair amount of the very top of the priority list vaccinated by the middle of January, because round about that point we'll probably see another spike.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Doubt it. If there is a serious mess there will be plenty of blame to spread around "Why are the French imposing checks when we're not, why are we queuing with "Others" when EU visitors use our e-gates at passport control (that won't last long) and so forth. If there's a mess it will be on both sides of the channel.
Over 60% of voters think a No Deal Brexit would be bad for Britain according to a poll last month, only 37% think it would be a good outcome. Even if every No Deal Brexit supporter voted Tory in 2024 then the Tory voteshare would still be 6% down on 2019 and the Tories would almost certainly lose power
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
That will be the Tory East Coast Fishing Federation Millionaires then I presume.
In my Scottish Fishing Family the vast majority are just hard working honest fishermen involved in a perilous occupation
G , I am pretty sure this is the mob where about 5 owners have all the boats and employ foreigners on low wages, all rich paid up Tories. I may be wrong as no expert but you see the same few Tory faces on whining about fishing up here, the west coast small boat boys never get a look in.
I was searching for something Jeremy Corbyn themed as an Xmas present for a Corbynite relative, and came across a life size cutout of the man for only £45. Bargin?
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Surely is it obvious that "circuit-breakers" do nothing to solve the problem? At the end of each circuit-break the virus is still there.
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
All "Circuit breaks" do is buy you some limited time to DO something, like, oh I dunno, fix track & trace, secure the border quarantine system......not much appears to have been done by any of the UK administrations (or European ones, for that matter).
Or, as it's turned out by more luck than judgement, stall for time for the vaccine.
Got away with it largely because of the speed of that, but couldn't have held out for another two or three years, say.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
Is making a phone call similar to testing your eyes
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for delaying lockdowns twice, and for not sacking Cummings and hence undermining the messaging. Not for the disease itself, obviously.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
I for one would prefer the opposite.
The number one win from Brexit is not fish it is controlling our own laws. Sacrificing that just to gain a few fish is pointless.
We should and will gain on fish, one way or another that is inevitable, but we should gain control of our laws and money too. That is the most important element of Brexit, the number one reason why people voted for Brexit and the number one priority in the last Tory manifesto for the negotiations.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look at if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'd say that the only achievements are:
1) Mass testing 2) Vaccine procurement 3) Furlough etc
all of which were achieved at UK level.
The fuckups on care homes, universities, foreign holidays were all failures at Westminster and devolved levels.
Neglecting to focus on obesity was also widespread.
Drakeford also added the fuckup of the 'fire breaker' rather than the partial success of the tier systems in England and Scotland.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for the response which has usually been late, confusing and discredited in the eyes of the public because he decided to die on a cross for Cummo.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Anyone want any odds on the chances of Labour explicitly having 'we will reapply for membership of the EU' in their manifesto?
Pretty much Zero, though pretty certain that they will have renegotiating better EU access in there. It won't be in the LD manifesto either.
No Deal is not a stable state, it is just a form of purgatory while awaiting a Deal.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
That will be the Tory East Coast Fishing Federation Millionaires then I presume.
In my Scottish Fishing Family the vast majority are just hard working honest fishermen involved in a perilous occupation
G , I am pretty sure this is the mob where about 5 owners have all the boats and employ foreigners on low wages, all rich paid up Tories. I may be wrong as no expert but you see the same few Tory faces on whining about fishing up here, the west coast small boat boys never get a look in.
You do not do your kinsman justice by that observation
Throughout my near 60 years association with my Scottish Fishing Family and community they have been against not only joining the EU but also great resentment over the way the CFP worked
60 years ago each and every one of them was an honest hard working person doing a dangerous job and providing for their families and community and of course voting Labour. Of those left at sea today the same applies but Labour is over and they vote SNP though many do not support independence
It is to be hoped sense prevails but I would expect the fishermen to support no deal if that is what it takes
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for the response which has usually been late, confusing and discredited in the eyes of the public because he decided to die on a cross for Cummo.
And yet by that picture you give the impression you are blaming him for Covid as a whole (since clearly when he sent it he could not foresee many bad things happening), not the response, so you're sending some pretty mixed signals here.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
Is making a phone call similar to testing your eyes
If it's work related the government don't decree which office you need to work in.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for the response which has usually been late, confusing and discredited in the eyes of the public because he decided to die on a cross for Cummo.
And yet by that picture you give the impression you are blaming him for Covid as a whole (since clearly when he sent it he could not foresee many bad things happening), not the response, so you're sending some pretty mixed signals here.
I seem to remember Dura regularly boasting about breaking lockdown guidelines in the spring.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for the response which has usually been late, confusing and discredited in the eyes of the public because he decided to die on a cross for Cummo.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
That will be the Tory East Coast Fishing Federation Millionaires then I presume.
In my Scottish Fishing Family the vast majority are just hard working honest fishermen involved in a perilous occupation
G , I am pretty sure this is the mob where about 5 owners have all the boats and employ foreigners on low wages, all rich paid up Tories. I may be wrong as no expert but you see the same few Tory faces on whining about fishing up here, the west coast small boat boys never get a look in.
You do not do your kinsman justice by that observation
Throughout my near 60 years association with my Scottish Fishing Family and community they have been against not only joining the EU but also great resentment over the way the CFP worked
60 years ago each and every one of them was an honest hard working person doing a dangerous job and providing for their families and community and of course voting Labour. Of those left at sea today the same applies but Labour is over and they vote SNP though many do not support independence
It is to be hoped sense prevails but I would expect the fishermen to support no deal if that is what it takes
Weren't most of the seats that are home to the Scottish fishing industry solidly Tory or Liberal 60 years ago?
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for the response which has usually been late, confusing and discredited in the eyes of the public because he decided to die on a cross for Cummo.
1918, after the end of the Great War1 you could have reasonably said "1919 is going to be a great year for the UK."
1919, 228,000 dead from the Spanish flu.
Shit happens, despite the hopes of politicians.
You'd have been a bit dumb if you'd done that as the Flu ('also known as the 1918 flu pandemic') was well under way in 1918. I don't think the end of the Great War was noted for great displays of joyous optimism in any case, understandably.
Politically if the EU don't compromise because Macron is going too far then I think the ideal situation is that gets called out for what it is. Boris and von der Leyen agree a deal that is acceptable to them, Macron gets to dramatically flourish his veto Charles de Gaulle style, we exit without a deal.
Macron gets to claim the "credit" of his veto. Boris gets to pin the "blame" on Macron.
Only issue is I can't imagine von der Leyen wanting to play that game.
The sooner Boris Johnson is a mere footnote in the history books the better. Since he's been around there's been nothing but trouble.
He has many faults but he cannot be blamed for covid
He can be blamed for the response which has usually been late, confusing and discredited in the eyes of the public because he decided to die on a cross for Cummo.
1918, after the end of the Great War1 you could have reasonably said "1919 is going to be a great year for the UK."
1919, 228,000 dead from the Spanish flu.
Shit happens, despite the hopes of politicians.
It's very easy to find things in the response to events to criticise Boris and the government, there's no need to even appear to be blaming them for Covid itself (another example would be criticising a rise in unemployment as though that was entirely unavoidable, rather than perhaps criticising government policy making things worse or not helping enough).
But I'm glad to see my prediction that, like clockwork, that Boris tweet would start getting unthinkingly reposted this month, was correct.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
It will be interesting to see how the Biden Administration approaches the issue when it takes over at the end of January. Presumably, it will be keeping a very close eye on what happens on the Irish border.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
That will be the Tory East Coast Fishing Federation Millionaires then I presume.
In my Scottish Fishing Family the vast majority are just hard working honest fishermen involved in a perilous occupation
G , I am pretty sure this is the mob where about 5 owners have all the boats and employ foreigners on low wages, all rich paid up Tories. I may be wrong as no expert but you see the same few Tory faces on whining about fishing up here, the west coast small boat boys never get a look in.
You do not do your kinsman justice by that observation
Throughout my near 60 years association with my Scottish Fishing Family and community they have been against not only joining the EU but also great resentment over the way the CFP worked
60 years ago each and every one of them was an honest hard working person doing a dangerous job and providing for their families and community and of course voting Labour. Of those left at sea today the same applies but Labour is over and they vote SNP though many do not support independence
It is to be hoped sense prevails but I would expect the fishermen to support no deal if that is what it takes
Weren't most of the seats that are home to the Scottish fishing industry solidly Tory or Liberal 60 years ago?
My Father in Law was awarded the BEM for services to the fishing industry and said he would not accept it
Sir Bill Duthie, his conservative mp, contacted him and said you would not want to insult the King would you
And in a typical response he said he would not want to insult any man and did go to receive it from the King
He was one of the finest men I have ever had the privilege to be in the company off and an exceptional skipper
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
I suppose the question really is do we trust judges more than politicians?
Well, I despise politicians. Particularly this lot.
But I trust judges far less. One judge, making bizarre rulings on alleged blackmail, very nearly created a situation where a court had created a privacy law in defiance of parliament (and but for John Hemming, probably would have succeeded) merely because he had a personal horror of seeing salacious details of people’s private lives in the papers.
Similarly, the Supreme Court has made some very strange rulings in the last few years, notably on prorogation, and it’s difficult to escape the sense that they did so in order to feel important and to annoy a government they didn’t like.
If I don’t have the power to kick out dodgy judges, I don’t want them making laws on my behalf. At least with Parliament I can vote the bastards out if they annoy me.
(In the US it’s a little different, as the SOCTUS can strike down laws, rather than create them.)
Which is surely the point of separation of powers. I don’t really trust anyone who exercises large amounts of power. If on branch of government holds it all, then there are no checks - and we increasingly have governments impatient with any limits on what they might do.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I suspect that luck was the major factor in how countries performed in the spring.
Just locking down a week earlier would have halved the number of deaths. Italy locked down two weeks before the UK (and much of the rest Europe to be fair), and there was no good reason to wait until cases had reached similar levels here.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
COVID on the death certificate at the bottom of the page. The numbers are all basically the same for Wales, Scotland and England.
That's the most reliable measure because as the ONS notes on "deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test":
Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary.
Which throws up some interesting questions on the gaps between "COVID 28 day reported deaths" and "Death Certificate mentioning COVID deaths"
Per 100,000, 28 day / Death Certificate / Difference (%):
Wales: 84.7 / 109.5 / +24.8 (29%)
Scotland: 71.2 / 98.5 / +27.3 (38%)
N Ireland: 54.5 / 68.7 / +14.2 (26%)
England: 94.2 / 105.9 / +11.7 (12%)
Clearly death certificates are going to catch more COVID cases than COVID tests - but when the dust settles it will be interesting to find out why there is such a huge variation across the administrations.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
Of course. That is why you need to compare regions in E, W, S and I which are broadly similar in density & demographics.
I think I knew Scotland (other than the Central Belt) was really empty, but the map is a brilliant way to show it.
You will have to educate me on what we have learnt from the Channel Islands approach & outcomes.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Surely is it obvious that "circuit-breakers" do nothing to solve the problem? At the end of each circuit-break the virus is still there.
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
All "Circuit breaks" do is buy you some limited time to DO something, like, oh I dunno, fix track & trace, secure the border quarantine system......not much appears to have been done by any of the UK administrations (or European ones, for that matter).
Or, as it's turned out by more luck than judgement, stall for time for the vaccine.
Got away with it largely because of the speed of that, but couldn't have held out for another two or three years, say.
With this approach, we probably could, and for significantly less than we’ve already spent on test, track & trace. And without further lockdowns. Though fortunately we won’t have to find out whether out government is competent enough to administer such a thing nationwide. https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1334959208375136260
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I suspect that luck was the major factor in how countries performed in the spring.
Just locking down a week earlier would have halved the number of deaths. Italy locked down two weeks before the UK (and much of the rest Europe to be fair), and there was no good reason to wait until cases had reached similar levels here.
Activity had begun to reduce before the lockdown - people had been told to work form home, pubs had been shut, people had begun to shield by their own choice.
And there had been very few deaths anywhere before then.
I don't think a lockdown was possible before it had become generally accepted as necessary - remember, for example, the hordes of people driving to national parks in the weekend before lockdown.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
Is making a phone call similar to testing your eyes
If it's work related the government don't decree which office you need to work in.
Get a grip Philip, he has to go from Downing St, where he works to Chequers where he does not, to make a work phone call. Even you cannot try and spin that one.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Yes, I think the approach taken by European nations have all been pretty rubbish. Even Germany the poster child for sensible thinking on this has been struggling in the last few weeks. Our failure to properly isolate those who have tested positive and to rapidly test their contacts has been an across the board failure. Bureaucrats in all European countries seem to have let the idea of an 80-85% accurate antigen test not being good enough take hold and just dismissed their value in rapid isolation of the majority of contacts who catch it.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It should have been named the Internal Market Backstop Act.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
He’s not hosting her. It’s a telephone call which he can perfectly well do from No 10. There is no reason for him to travel to Chequers at all.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
The official NRS/ONS numbers put Scotland deaths at 98.5 per 100k, England at 105 per 100k and Wales at 109 per 100k. This is measuring the whole pandemic, whatever numbers you're looking at are wrong or outdated.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
He’s not hosting her. It’s a telephone call which he can perfectly well do from No 10. There is no reason for him to travel to Chequers at all.
exactly. one rule for them, another rule for rest of us. yet again.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I suspect that luck was the major factor in how countries performed in the spring.
Just locking down a week earlier would have halved the number of deaths. Italy locked down two weeks before the UK (and much of the rest Europe to be fair), and there was no good reason to wait until cases had reached similar levels here.
Activity had begun to reduce before the lockdown - people had been told to work form home, pubs had been shut, people had begun to shield by their own choice.
And there had been very few deaths anywhere before then.
I don't think a lockdown was possible before it had become generally accepted as necessary - remember, for example, the hordes of people driving to national parks in the weekend before lockdown.
It’s been a very interesting exercise this year, at observing different countries and the ways their people behave, either voluntarily or through regulation.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
I hope you're as right on this as you were on the US elections !
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
C'mon malc, folk moving from suggesting that Scotland's public services are not as 'resilient' as those of the rest of the UK to 'we're all as shit as each other' has got to be seen as a positive.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
I think Trump comes close to being indictable for mass murder.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
C'mon malc, folk moving from suggesting that Scotland's public services are not as 'resilient' as those of the rest of the UK to 'we're all as shit as each other' has got to be seen as a positive.
Ah the wee Scotland defence. It's tiresome. The data you quoted was out of date. It is what it is. If you want to split hairs between a rate of 98.5 and 105 then sure, go right ahead.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
The UK is actually doing a bit worse than the US.The west coast has had a goodish covid so far
The UK is at the lower end of the European response to covid. Thankfully, though, for all that it was a pretty mainstream European response, as opposed to the ones seen in countries like the US, Brazil and India. We could and should have done better than we have done - but, let's not forget, we would also have done a whole lot worse if we had followed the approach advocated in the Spectator and Telegraph.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
He’s not hosting her. It’s a telephone call which he can perfectly well do from No 10. There is no reason for him to travel to Chequers at all.
exactly. one rule for them, another rule for rest of us. yet again.
What rule is there against going to an office you work at?
Yes, I think the approach taken by European nations have all been pretty rubbish. Even Germany the poster child for sensible thinking on this has been struggling in the last few weeks. Our failure to properly isolate those who have tested positive and to rapidly test their contacts has been an across the board failure. Bureaucrats in all European countries seem to have let the idea of an 80-85% accurate antigen test not being good enough take hold and just dismissed their value in rapid isolation of the majority of contacts who catch it.
I would say the role of the UK Media in this pandemic has been particularly disgraceful, and contributed to the high death toll.
From "We Can Have our Summer Holidays" to "Boris Saves Christmas" to "At last, we Can Hug our GrandChildren", the media has grossly infantilised the pandemic. They have made it much, much more difficult for politicians to take the correct and difficult decisions.
The editors of the tabloids should be in prison.
The Daily Mail (I only look at it because the damn website is free) usually has multiple daily COVID articles using the words "Rage" or "Fury" in the headlines, usually arguing simultaneously for many inconsistent things.
Now I guess we have a lull before the tabloids get to work with vax-scare stories.
"Fury as Mum Dies after Vaccine", "Rage as Healthy Man Drops Dead in Vax Clinic". They articles write themselves.
Shitty & irresponsible journalism costs lives. The South Wales Evening Post led a campaign against MMR ... and the result was the 2013 Swansea measles epidemic.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
The UK is actually doing a bit worse than the US.The west coast has had a goodish covid so far
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Not just the PB experts but Whitty, Vallance and the other scientific 'experts' thought it a good idea as well.
AFAIK the scientific advice isn't to have fixed length circuit breaks, but to trigger and release such measures by looking at ICU admission rates. The aim is for the circuit break to halve the rate of admissions. So a cricuit break would be as long as needed, and would not follow a regular schedule. Wales did not follow that approach, and in fact no part of the UK has really followed the advice, as they want certainty about the dates and duration of the lockdowns.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Anyone want any odds on the chances of Labour explicitly having 'we will reapply for membership of the EU' in their manifesto?
If we go to No Deal in January and it proves a disaster with mass unemployment etc and tensions across the Union and as unpopular in the polls as the poll tax was then I think that is quite likely, however I think if that was the case Tory MPs would take fright and replace Boris with Sunak to get a deal as they did in 1990 when they replaced Thatcher with Major who then dumped the poll tax
I can see the logic of Rishi, and he has kept his head down on Brexit (clever Rishi, or smart Sunak) but can he avoid being covered by the splatters of poo from a Brexitshambles? Would ruin his lovely hoodie.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
I hope you're as right on this as you were on the US elections !
- Where of course I WAS right.
"Trump Toast. Not Close." - such was my long time mantra.
Comments
How these moronic pygmies get to where they are is amazing.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
Catching fish you can't sell is not a win
Incidentally this doesn't apply in reverse. If the UK was worried about trust it would stay in the European Union. The EU is a formalisation of commitments.
You regard polls conducted on behalf of The New European as accurate guides to public sentiment.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit
Even in summer 2016 only 36% saw No Deal as a good outcome compared to 50% who saw a Canada style outcome as good
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price
If we went to No Deal I would expect Labour to have a 5 to 10% poll lead by the Spring
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
Got away with it largely because of the speed of that, but couldn't have held out for another two or three years, say.
The number one win from Brexit is not fish it is controlling our own laws. Sacrificing that just to gain a few fish is pointless.
We should and will gain on fish, one way or another that is inevitable, but we should gain control of our laws and money too. That is the most important element of Brexit, the number one reason why people voted for Brexit and the number one priority in the last Tory manifesto for the negotiations.
1) Mass testing
2) Vaccine procurement
3) Furlough etc
all of which were achieved at UK level.
The fuckups on care homes, universities, foreign holidays were all failures at Westminster and devolved levels.
Neglecting to focus on obesity was also widespread.
Drakeford also added the fuckup of the 'fire breaker' rather than the partial success of the tier systems in England and Scotland.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840
60,000 dead.
No Deal is not a stable state, it is just a form of purgatory while awaiting a Deal.
Throughout my near 60 years association with my Scottish Fishing Family and community they have been against not only joining the EU but also great resentment over the way the CFP worked
60 years ago each and every one of them was an honest hard working person doing a dangerous job and providing for their families and community and of course voting Labour. Of those left at sea today the same applies but Labour is over and they vote SNP though many do not support independence
It is to be hoped sense prevails but I would expect the fishermen to support no deal if that is what it takes
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
ONS and NRS data tabulated by: https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/'
https://tinyurl.com/yxhhl3q4
1919, 228,000 dead from the Spanish flu.
Shit happens, despite the hopes of politicians.
COVID on the death certificate at the bottom of the page. The numbers are all basically the same for Wales, Scotland and England.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/Scotland_population_cartogram.svg
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
In the autumn it was a combination of luck, quality of governance and level of individual responsibility.
I don't think the end of the Great War was noted for great displays of joyous optimism in any case, understandably.
Macron gets to claim the "credit" of his veto.
Boris gets to pin the "blame" on Macron.
Only issue is I can't imagine von der Leyen wanting to play that game.
But I'm glad to see my prediction that, like clockwork, that Boris tweet would start getting unthinkingly reposted this month, was correct.
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
Sir Bill Duthie, his conservative mp, contacted him and said you would not want to insult the King would you
And in a typical response he said he would not want to insult any man and did go to receive it from the King
He was one of the finest men I have ever had the privilege to be in the company off and an exceptional skipper
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
I don’t really trust anyone who exercises large amounts of power. If on branch of government holds it all, then there are no checks - and we increasingly have governments impatient with any limits on what they might do.
Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary.
Which throws up some interesting questions on the gaps between "COVID 28 day reported deaths" and "Death Certificate mentioning COVID deaths"
Per 100,000, 28 day / Death Certificate / Difference (%):
Wales: 84.7 / 109.5 / +24.8 (29%)
Scotland: 71.2 / 98.5 / +27.3 (38%)
N Ireland: 54.5 / 68.7 / +14.2 (26%)
England: 94.2 / 105.9 / +11.7 (12%)
Clearly death certificates are going to catch more COVID cases than COVID tests - but when the dust settles it will be interesting to find out why there is such a huge variation across the administrations.
I think I knew Scotland (other than the Central Belt) was really empty, but the map is a brilliant way to show it.
You will have to educate me on what we have learnt from the Channel Islands approach & outcomes.
Though fortunately we won’t have to find out whether out government is competent enough to administer such a thing nationwide.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1334959208375136260
That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
And there had been very few deaths anywhere before then.
I don't think a lockdown was possible before it had become generally accepted as necessary - remember, for example, the hordes of people driving to national parks in the weekend before lockdown.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Please cite the rule broken here?
From "We Can Have our Summer Holidays" to "Boris Saves Christmas" to "At last, we Can Hug our GrandChildren", the media has grossly infantilised the pandemic. They have made it much, much more difficult for politicians to take the correct and difficult decisions.
The editors of the tabloids should be in prison.
The Daily Mail (I only look at it because the damn website is free) usually has multiple daily COVID articles using the words "Rage" or "Fury" in the headlines, usually arguing simultaneously for many inconsistent things.
Now I guess we have a lull before the tabloids get to work with vax-scare stories.
"Fury as Mum Dies after Vaccine", "Rage as Healthy Man Drops Dead in Vax Clinic". They articles write themselves.
Shitty & irresponsible journalism costs lives. The South Wales Evening Post led a campaign against MMR ... and the result was the 2013 Swansea measles epidemic.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
There's no guarantees of it though.
"Trump Toast. Not Close." - such was my long time mantra.
And he was, and it wasn't, not really.