Just as any 2 year old can respond to any explanation by countering with 'Why', any constitutional arrangement and balance of power (Crown, parliament, judges etc) can be questioned by Juvenal's age old response: Who guards the guards? (Quis custodiet ipsos custodes).
There cannot be a final and satisfactory answer. Tinkering with constitutions certainly won't find one.
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
I suspect dealing with China is going to be a problem for Britain. This country has not, historically, had a good relationship with China, and indeed in the mid and late the 19thC threw it's weight about when dealing with what it apparently arrogantly perceived to be a failing and inferior state. Now that state, rejuvenated, is neither weak nor failing and I fear that the saying about revenge applies.
All nations deal or dealt arrogantly with nations less powerful than them. China certainly has in the past and does now, and nurses grievances from that time as a strategy, but do we think theyd be less inclined to throw their weight around if we'd been nicer back then? No, that just gives them flimsy pretext, but it's as much a joke as when we talk about the Treaty of Troyes as a reason to treat the French bad, only they pretend it's not a joke. China will do what it will do, but I highly doubt 19th C actions play any genuine part of their calculations.
So yes itll be a problem for us, but not really for that reason. Really we've had little historical relations with them at all compared to their neighbours.
Indeed, now Hong Kong is no longer a British Colony our relationships with China are not that important compared to those with the EU, it is over the other side of the world after all and only 3% of our exports go to China.
Even if we want to be global Britain we must remember France is our nearest continental neighbour just across the channel, a key NATO ally and a key member of the EU to whom we still sell 48% of our exports, this Macron spat over fishing needs to be resolved for both our sakes
We have a Prime Minister who very successfully writes letters to recipients who can help him kick cans down roads. I believe a letter to Covid-19 is in order!
I’m certain the COVID could be battered into submission through the medium of WWII metaphors..
We have a Prime Minister who very successfully writes letters to recipients who can help him kick cans down roads. I believe a letter to Covid-19 is in order!
Most of our periods of Govt between elections are 1 party dictatorships for a few years before that is renewed or another party takes over. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but in reality parliament, for the greater part, does not hold the executive to account. We actually had a period where that did happen. Admittedly it was a shambles, but that was primarily because it was all new. The added advantage was people were interested. The parliament channel was actually getting millions of viewers as people took an interest.
I appreciate that what I described was unusual because it was Brexit and for more day to day stuff we are not going to get the same level of interest by the public, but it might be better than what we have now.
Of course PR and coalition Govt also bring about that greater interest and debate in parliament rather than 1 party blasting through what it wants for the majority of the time, with a parliament pretending to hold it to account.
For most governments, the constraint is more that they want to win the next election, and it's assumed that this will encourage them to behave like decent chaps in the meantime.
That works as long as you have a government of decent chaps. When half the government believe that national salvation comes through chaos and destruction and the other half never think in advance at all, the constraints don't work.
I would have thought that just a clean repeal, without more, would put us back exactly where we were, with the prerogatives intact. Not saying that is politically possible, but it is surely what the legal position would be.
Yes, so the underlying assumption is that the Monarch has absolute power, except where constrained by Parliament, so if the constraint is removed the power is restored.
Make you vomit, the clowns think some doddery old German bird has absolute power and we are supposed to be in the 21st Century. Explains why the UK is down the toilet and has reached banana republic territory.
I think legal principles, even ones people dislike, are unlikely to be a reason people consider a nation that way. I doubt theres a person on this planet who genuinely thinks legal fictions around monarchical power make a county bananas. Suggesting people have alternative nationality or ethnicity to the reality doesn't help the case either.
Fair point, in the last few years the UK’s deranged attitude to its monarchy (which IMO includes legal fictions) has almost certainly gone down in the top 20 reasons to think it’s bananas. However on the dangerous assumption that some sort of normality will return, I’m sure it’ll be back stronger than ever.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
We have a Prime Minister who very successfully writes letters to recipients who can help him kick cans down roads. I believe a letter to Covid-19 is in order!
I’m certain the COVID could be battered into submission through the medium of WWII metaphors..
Boris Johnson stands confident and majestic at the crease like Garfield Sobers. All his opponents (the EU, Starmer, etc.) are Malcolm Nash!
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Why be so restrictive? The balloon in no.10 and the arse he’s making of Brexit are at least as important (& would be there COVID or not).
Picking up the FPT on vaccine deployment - it looks like there is a three-phase plan, with only the first having been worked up in detail currently:
- deployment from 50 'hospital hubs': the larger hospitals, where people will go to be vaccinated - more local 'vaccination centres' - community vaccination via (some) GP practices
To get the first batch deployed as quickly as possible, and to avoid the technical complications or potential wastage around breaking the 750-batches, the initial deployment is via the hospital hubs.
Aside from the island's particular issues, what isn't clear is how the phase one method of deployment is going to be reconciled with the priority order, which puts the eldest and most infirm people at the front of the queue; those who it will be most difficult to bring into the 50 hub hospitals (existing inpatients excepted).
Possibly the reason that existing inpatients have very recently been bumped up to the top of the list is because they don't have to be transported (at least for the first dose).
Also FPT, from this article it looks like vaccinations will be done in care homes.
It looks like overcoming the practical issues is why that aspect of the rollout is back to the 14th.
Is this the time to wonder what database they intend to use to try and make sure they reach everybody?
Two weeks in the grand scheme of things isn't that much. And as for database, the GP registry, surely?
I guess so. It contains more people than are believed to be resident in the UK, suggesting a degree of double registration and/or a dataset that isn't fully purged of those no longer with us. Yet on the other hand London A&E units get about 150,000 visits annually from people who aren't registered with a GP at all, suggesting a good measure of non-registration as well.
Good enough for a very sizeable chunk of the population, especially those more at risk who are much more likely to be signed up in the first place.
It doesn't contain more people than are resident though:
Edit, oops.. no, it does. I thought it was England & Wales.
The 2018 data release says "Between the ages of 5 and 80 there are more people registered at GP practices than are projected to be resident in England"
Yeah, I edited my post to reflect that. Still, even if only people on this register were contacted that would still be a huge portion of the population. That's not even considering a push to get people who don't have a GP to get vaccinated.
For sure. And, whichever list is used, the actual penetration achieved won't get to 100%.
The point nevertheless is that, if you're managing the exercise, the accuracy of the data - the number of duplicates, the number of omissions, and the number of errors - dead people, wrong details, people who have emigrated etc. - is reasonably significant in terms of how effective the whole exercise will prove to be.
You seem to be suggesting it's going to be a show-stopper? We were discussing this very same thing a week or so ago and @Foxy was suggesting that the database is ~ 90% accurate.
Not at all. Having worked in the logistics industry and been long involved in politics I am interested to start thinking through how they're going to manage and deliver a successful exercise, that's all.
Demand for the vaccine is likely to be such that achieving herd immunity by getting sufficient numbers of people coming forward will probably take care of itself, as others have said.
Nevertheless to get the fastest rollout they are going to have to ensure that vaccine isn't wasted, or the exercise slowed down, by inviting large numbers of people who don't show up, or don't exist.
Overall it'll be a rationing exercise, with people more eager to be done than they'll be able to cope with, at least straight away. They'll need a lot of comms to deal with all the people wanting to be done early for a whole variety of reasons.
On the island there's already a political issue over our being effectively excluded from phase one; if phase two begins as scheduled in ten days time, maybe not such an issue, but the MP has been under pressure having previously given the impression (after our having been the trial site for both Apps) that we'll be a priority area: this morning hehas come back and promised there'll be a phase two vaccination centre here.
Someone I know who is a recovering cancer patient has decided not to have the vaccine - she said I could have her earlier place in the queue, which obviously isn't going to be allowed. But the first lesson of logistics is that anything that involves lots of human decisions has a lot of ways in which difficulty can arise!
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese imports, Osborne meanwhile was sucking up to Beijing like nobody's business before Brexit, so that is of course rubbish.
In any case the biggest constraint to Chinese expansion is not the EU or even the US whether under Trump or now Biden but India, with whom China has recently been in a border dispute, Australia may well find India its closest ally in constraining China as geographically it is far closer to China than we are and therefore it is more pressing an issue for them and Morrison is close to Modi.
An Australian-Indian-Japanese alliance with US support is far more likely to constrain China than anything we can do from the other side of the world
We have a Prime Minister who very successfully writes letters to recipients who can help him kick cans down roads. I believe a letter to Covid-19 is in order!
I’m certain the COVID could be battered into submission through the medium of WWII metaphors..
Boris Johnson stands confident and majestic at the crease like Garfield Sobers. All his opponents (the EU, Starmer, etc.) are Malcolm Nash!
That is one high brow Header to which I can only add a couple of basic observations. The FTPA did not work to stop snap elections and so I'm happy enough to see it go. And Governments should definitely NOT be above or beyond the Law. There has to be certain things that even if they pass a law to do it, the Courts will say "no you can't". Conversely certain things that if governments refuse to do it, the Courts will say "but you must".
You say "if the prerogative was destroyed by the FTPA, it cannot be revived". But the FTPA, like any other Act, had royal assent. Might it not be thought that in giving such assent the monarch undertook not to exercise a certain power? If so the Monarch did not forever surrender the power. Repeal of the Act is then to be thought of as revival of the ability to exercise a power. Compare: You assent to being given heavy dose of a sleeping tablet, knowing that for some while you don't be able to do anything, but knowing also that you may be woken up, and when woken will be able to do whatever you were able to do before you were sent into sleep.
There's a very long-running debate over when prerogative powers are abolished and when they are merely in abeyance. But the consensus is that where explicitly abolished, they can't be revived.
You can give the monarch a statutory power, but that isn't the same as a prerogative power, which is by definition a residual power in the absence of legislation.
OK. I was taking a side in the long-running debate. My suggestion was that legislation does not remove a so-called residual power, but can render it inoperative unless and until there is further legislation. Otherwise God could never act (through the monarch) to "amend the Constitution". [I'm an atheist and know we have no Constitution!]
We used the go patient register to QA the 2011 Census. If I remember correctly, the GP register is inflated for 20 somethings when they leave university. I couldn’t work out why it isn’t time limited for students, but it really shouldn’t be a problem.
Merkel it seems does, it is Macron who is the problem, so he is unfairly including Berlin
How well I remember those blithely innocent days when it was proposed that a divided EU would have individual members peeling off to support the UK’s case.
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese imports, Osborne meanwhile was sucking up to Beijing like nobody's business before Brexit, so that is of course rubbish.
In any case the biggest constraint to Chinese expansion is not the EU or even the US whether under Trump or now Biden but India, with whom China has recently been in a border dispute, Australia may well find India its closest ally in constraining China as geographically it is far closer to China than we are and therefore it is more pressing an issue for them and Morrison is close to Modi.
An Australian-Indian-Japanese alliance with US support is far more likely to constrain China than anything we can do from the other side of the world
Mr Putin's shiny new hypersonic missiles are probably intended to impress the Chinese rather than the Americans. Russia and China have had border disputes within the recent past.
You say "if the prerogative was destroyed by the FTPA, it cannot be revived". But the FTPA, like any other Act, had royal assent. Might it not be thought that in giving such assent the monarch undertook not to exercise a certain power? If so the Monarch did not forever surrender the power. Repeal of the Act is then to be thought of as revival of the ability to exercise a power. Compare: You assent to being given heavy dose of a sleeping tablet, knowing that for some while you don't be able to do anything, but knowing also that you may be woken up, and when woken will be able to do whatever you were able to do before you were sent into sleep.
There's a very long-running debate over when prerogative powers are abolished and when they are merely in abeyance. But the consensus is that where explicitly abolished, they can't be revived.
You can give the monarch a statutory power, but that isn't the same as a prerogative power, which is by definition a residual power in the absence of legislation.
OK. I was taking a side in the long-running debate. My suggestion was that legislation does not remove a so-called residual power, but can render it inoperative unless and until there is further legislation. Otherwise God could never act (through the monarch) to "amend the Constitution". [I'm an atheist and know we have no Constitution!]
We do have a constitution. It's just confusing and unclear what forms part of it sometimes.
Merkel it seems does, it is Macron who is the problem, so he is unfairly including Berlin
How well I remember those blithely innocent days when it was proposed that a divided EU would have individual members peeling off to support the UK’s case.
I think according to Daniel Hannan’s fantasy, by now we’d be leading a 19-strong bloc against Franco-German domination.
We have a Prime Minister who very successfully writes letters to recipients who can help him kick cans down roads. I believe a letter to Covid-19 is in order!
I’m certain the COVID could be battered into submission through the medium of WWII metaphors..
Boris Johnson stands confident and majestic at the crease like Garfield Sobers. All his opponents (the EU, Starmer, etc.) are Malcolm Nash!
First delivery - he takes one right on the box!
Boris has managed to thrive from or after events that make him look funny or ridiculous, so he may welcome that.
Most of our periods of Govt between elections are 1 party dictatorships for a few years before that is renewed or another party takes over. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but in reality parliament, for the greater part, does not hold the executive to account. We actually had a period where that did happen. Admittedly it was a shambles, but that was primarily because it was all new. The added advantage was people were interested. The parliament channel was actually getting millions of viewers as people took an interest.
I appreciate that what I described was unusual because it was Brexit and for more day to day stuff we are not going to get the same level of interest by the public, but it might be better than what we have now.
Of course PR and coalition Govt also bring about that greater interest and debate in parliament rather than 1 party blasting through what it wants for the majority of the time, with a parliament pretending to hold it to account.
Is it not the case that 1970 is the only post-war election that saw one party with a working majority be replaced by another with a working majority?
@ydoethur Roe v Wade - Out of interest where in the US constitution is abortion mentioned ?
This misunderstands the purpose of a constitution. It doesn't control what individuals can and cannot do. That is the function of the legislature. The constitution sets boundaries on what the State and its functionaries can do. It deals with principles, not specific laws.
The principle behind Roe v Wade is that individuals have the right to decide what happens with their own bodies. Now this right can be balanced against conflicting rights, eg the right of the unborn child to live. The state, in this case Texas, can use judgement in deciding where they draw the line. but they can't impose an arbitrary ban.
Judges are undoubtedly influenced by societal mores. Which is one reason why it matters that the Supreme Court is now so out of line with the mainstream of American society. Roe v Wade probably wouldn't have happened in 1953 rather than 1973.
AIUI Roe v Wade wasn't particularly controversial from a legal perspective. If you set out the issues as I have above that's the judgment you would come to. But it remains very controversial politically.
Excellent piece. So we're returning to the time when the likes of Gordon could play silly buggers and hint at calling a GE whilst the Tory conference was in progress, simply as a childish ruse to undermine the opposition. And they call this progress.
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
It shows how little we know about post vaccination evolution, which is not surprising. If I was in charge I’d be dampening down expectations till we know more!
Excellent piece. So we're returning to the time when the likes of Gordon could play silly buggers and hint at calling a GE whilst the Tory conference was in progress, simply as a childish ruse to undermine the opposition. And they call this progress.
It was inevitable. Labour also promised to repeal the Act as it 'stifled democracy and propped up weak governments'.
I think the FTPA helped Boris secure his big majority. Being denied an election by the opposition definitely got people's backs up and when the Lib Dems gave Boris his election people remembered that Labour were against having one.
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
It shows how little we know about post vaccination evolution, which is not surprising. If I was in charge I’d be dampening down expectations till we know more!
Seems to me extremely unlikely you would only get 90 days immunity. But I'm not a virologist.
3 Non-justiciability of revived prerogative powers A court of law may not question— (a) the exercise or purported exercise of the powers referred to in section 2, (b) any decision or purported decision relating to those powers, or (c) the limits or extent of those powers.
I think this section of the draft bill will receive attention and can't survive scrutiny.
This is part of the price we pay for Miller II. The courts stuck their noses in where they don’t belong for what seemed good reasons in the short term and we pay a long term price. It was ever thus and our courts used to have more self discipline.
If this goes through Miller II would be reversed and a future prorogation as disputed in Miller II would be lawful would it not?
Since it reads to me the Act applies to dissolutions with regards to a new session of Parliament and not just an election? Or have I misread it?
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
I suspect dealing with China is going to be a problem for Britain. This country has not, historically, had a good relationship with China, and indeed in the mid and late the 19thC threw it's weight about when dealing with what it apparently arrogantly perceived to be a failing and inferior state. Now that state, rejuvenated, is neither weak nor failing and I fear that the saying about revenge applies.
All nations deal or dealt arrogantly with nations less powerful than them. China certainly has in the past and does now, and nurses grievances from that time as a strategy, but do we think theyd be less inclined to throw their weight around if we'd been nicer back then? No, that just gives them flimsy pretext, but it's as much a joke as when we talk about the Treaty of Troyes as a reason to treat the French bad, only they pretend it's not a joke. China will do what it will do, but I highly doubt 19th C actions play any genuine part of their calculations.
So yes itll be a problem for us, but not really for that reason. Really we've had little historical relations with them at all compared to their neighbours.
Indeed, now Hong Kong is no longer a British Colony our relationships with China are not that important compared to those with the EU, it is over the other side of the world after all and only 3% of our exports go to China.
Even if we want to be global Britain we must remember France is our nearest continental neighbour just across the channel, a key NATO ally and a key member of the EU to whom we still sell 48% of our exports, this Macron spat over fishing needs to be resolved for both our sakes
The problem is that Redwood et al do not wish this fundamental reality to be true. They actively wish to redirect our trade away from the EU. which they consider to be a strategic competitor, not an ally. They are already discussing alliances with Russia, which they consider to be an historic partner, rather than a neo-fascist kleptostate. They are trapped in WWII thinking and despite the loss of Empire and all the rest of it (which, BTW they think CANZUK would partly restore) they believe that the British manifest destiny is to sit at the right hand of the US and decree the judgement of nations, despite having no means to enforce this. It is stupid. It is ignorant and arrogant. Most of all it is hubris.
Meanwhile the EU has plenty of means to disrupt the gadfly, up to and including supporting the break up of the UK. Canada, Australia and New Zealand now look to indigenous traditions at least as much to the tarnished Imperial past. So the fact is that although these people would actively prefer no deal, since any deal, by definition, would be a betrayal of our manifest global destiny, they are doomed to failure. The USA of course will continue the pressure that they have exerted over most of the past century: "we took their empire, they have yet to find a role".
It goes without saying that none of these deluded people are in business, and very few have studied economics or history. This circle of delusion will evaporate when the long predicted economic mess unfolds precisely as "project fear" foretold. Over the course of the next decade the current UK will revert to some kind of Europeanism, whether as one -humiliated- state or as several. Personally the judgement of history on these fools will be severe- and rightly so.
@ydoethur Roe v Wade - Out of interest where in the US constitution is abortion mentioned ?
Nowhere. Which is why the majority held that there was no power to ban it.
Precisely. This fact often gets overlooked.
In the UK the government can pass any bill it likes but in the US the Constitution defines what powers governments can wield - and invading somebody's body is not one of them.
Excellent piece. So we're returning to the time when the likes of Gordon could play silly buggers and hint at calling a GE whilst the Tory conference was in progress, simply as a childish ruse to undermine the opposition. And they call this progress.
It was inevitable. Labour also promised to repeal the Act as it 'stifled democracy and propped up weak governments'.
That's just nonsense. How can a 'weak government' possibly be 'propped up' by it?
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
Antibodies aren't the only way to get immunity. That NERVTAG paper didn't look into T and B cell immunity so it is completely flawed. The fact that in all of these infections there have only been a vanishingly small number of reinfections is a very positive sign that infections (and hopefully vaccines) give T and B cell immunity which can last for many years.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
It shows how little we know about post vaccination evolution, which is not surprising. If I was in charge I’d be dampening down expectations till we know more!
Seems to me extremely unlikely you would only get 90 days immunity. But I'm not a virologist.
They were saying that it could well be something akin to an annual thing, like flu in which strains come and go.
I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to be asking questions about the vaccine. Too many people seem to be thinking it's a magic bullet which will kill the pandemic stone dead by Easter. (which one lady was thinking in the office last week when I popped in).
It's very good news, but too much it seems like 'skeptic' is a dirty work, which it can be, but there should be sensible and professional skeptisism.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
Excellent piece. So we're returning to the time when the likes of Gordon could play silly buggers and hint at calling a GE whilst the Tory conference was in progress, simply as a childish ruse to undermine the opposition. And they call this progress.
It was inevitable. Labour also promised to repeal the Act as it 'stifled democracy and propped up weak governments'.
That's just nonsense. How can a 'weak government' possibly be 'propped up' by it?
Because the Opposition couldn’t force an election, on an unwilling government with no majority.
Excellent piece. So we're returning to the time when the likes of Gordon could play silly buggers and hint at calling a GE whilst the Tory conference was in progress, simply as a childish ruse to undermine the opposition. And they call this progress.
It was inevitable. Labour also promised to repeal the Act as it 'stifled democracy and propped up weak governments'.
That's just nonsense. How can a 'weak government' possibly be 'propped up' by it?
I don't know, but that's what the manifesto stated (p82). It didn't say what they'd do, other than repeal it. So while the details will be objected to, it doesn't look like many will object to the principle in Commons or Lords.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
It shows how little we know about post vaccination evolution, which is not surprising. If I was in charge I’d be dampening down expectations till we know more!
Vaccines/immunity does not last forever. It is why you are supposed to get regular booster shots. It is also why vaccine certificates for travel have expiry dates.
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
It shows how little we know about post vaccination evolution, which is not surprising. If I was in charge I’d be dampening down expectations till we know more!
Seems to me extremely unlikely you would only get 90 days immunity. But I'm not a virologist.
They were saying that it could well be something akin to an annual thing, like flu in which strains come and go.
I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to be asking questions about the vaccine. Too many people seem to be thinking it's a magic bullet which will kill the pandemic stone dead by Easter. (which one lady was thinking in the office last week when I popped in).
It's very good news, but too much it seems like 'skeptic' is a dirty work, which it can be, but there should be sensible and professional skeptisism.
If it is annual then some sense of proportion wrt risk will need to be brought back into the equation. We don't give seasonal flu jab to everyone - just the over 65s and some vulnerables.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
Absolutely. God knows how few will be left to reopen by Easter. Many in my neck of the woods were struggling before all this happened.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
China is an interesting diplomatic challenge for the UK. Brexit allows the UK to do something different with China from the EU. It's about the only area where a buccaneering Britain could get a significant advantage. So far the UK has become more, not less, hostile to China for some good reasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
China was previously constrained by a Western alliance across the US-EU, it might not have felt that way at the time, but they would have gone faster and further without said alliance. With Trumpism and Brexit weakening that alliance heavily China will be far more aggressive internationally and abide by its own values not Western norms. It may well be the biggest cost of Brexit.
I suspect dealing with China is going to be a problem for Britain. This country has not, historically, had a good relationship with China, and indeed in the mid and late the 19thC threw it's weight about when dealing with what it apparently arrogantly perceived to be a failing and inferior state. Now that state, rejuvenated, is neither weak nor failing and I fear that the saying about revenge applies.
All nations deal or dealt arrogantly with nations less powerful than them. China certainly has in the past and does now, and nurses grievances from that time as a strategy, but do we think theyd be less inclined to throw their weight around if we'd been nicer back then? No, that just gives them flimsy pretext, but it's as much a joke as when we talk about the Treaty of Troyes as a reason to treat the French bad, only they pretend it's not a joke. China will do what it will do, but I highly doubt 19th C actions play any genuine part of their calculations.
So yes itll be a problem for us, but not really for that reason. Really we've had little historical relations with them at all compared to their neighbours.
Indeed, now Hong Kong is no longer a British Colony our relationships with China are not that important compared to those with the EU, it is over the other side of the world after all and only 3% of our exports go to China.
Even if we want to be global Britain we must remember France is our nearest continental neighbour just across the channel, a key NATO ally and a key member of the EU to whom we still sell 48% of our exports, this Macron spat over fishing needs to be resolved for both our sakes
The problem is that Redwood et al do not wish this fundamental reality to be true. They actively wish to redirect our trade away from the EU. which they consider to be a strategic competitor, not an ally. They are already discussing alliances with Russia, which they consider to be an historic partner, rather than a neo-fascist kleptostate. They are trapped in WWII thinking and despite the loss of Empire and all the rest of it (which, BTW they think CANZUK would partly restore) they believe that the British manifest destiny is to sit at the right hand of the US and decree the judgement of nations, despite having no means to enforce this. It is stupid. It is ignorant and arrogant. Most of all it is hubris.
Meanwhile the EU has plenty of means to disrupt the gadfly, up to and including supporting the break up of the UK. Canada, Australia and New Zealand now look to indigenous traditions at least as much to the tarnished Imperial past. So the fact is that although these people would actively prefer no deal, since any deal, by definition, would be a betrayal of our manifest global destiny, they are doomed to failure. The USA of course will continue the pressure that they have exerted over most of the past century: "we took their empire, they have yet to find a role".
It goes without saying that none of these deluded people are in business, and very few have studied economics or history. This circle of delusion will evaporate when the long predicted economic mess unfolds precisely as "project fear" foretold. Over the course of the next decade the current UK will revert to some kind of Europeanism, whether as one -humiliated- state or as several. Personally the judgement of history on these fools will be severe- and rightly so.
To be fair to Redwood he has a history phd and finance experience but yes as Blair correctly said last week we cannot ignore Europe even if we wanted too, in the 21st century there will be 3 superpowers, China, the US and maybe India who will largely look after their own interests, then there will be taller nations like Indonesia and Brazil and Russia and we will be another medium power on the next rung down. We will have to work with our European allies to make our collective voice heard on the world stage even outside the EU and it will remain our largest single export destination
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Of course its a lot easier to plan for a scheduled circuit break than it is to plan for not knowing what the rules are week to week and day to day.
Excellent piece. So we're returning to the time when the likes of Gordon could play silly buggers and hint at calling a GE whilst the Tory conference was in progress, simply as a childish ruse to undermine the opposition. And they call this progress.
It was inevitable. Labour also promised to repeal the Act as it 'stifled democracy and propped up weak governments'.
That's just nonsense. How can a 'weak government' possibly be 'propped up' by it?
I don't know, but that's what the manifesto stated (p82). It didn't say what they'd do, other than repeal it. So while the details will be objected to, it doesn't look like many will object to the principle in Commons or Lords.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Was it so much the "two weeks circuit break" that commended itself, or that it was "Labour Wales, not Tory England" that persuaded some of its virtue?
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Of course its a lot easier to plan for a scheduled circuit break than it is to plan for not knowing what the rules are week to week and day to day.
Not on the schedules being proposed by the scientists. They were a disaster for hospitality. Part of the reason some aren't opening is because there is an expectation that everywhere goes into tier 3 after Xmas so opening for these next 3 weeks might lose more money than staying closed.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Was it so much the "two weeks circuit break" that commended itself, or that it was "Labour Wales, not Tory England" that persuaded some of its virtue?
Well the drum for these regular circuit breakers started banging when Starmer/Labour supported it and coincidentally stopped after seeing what happened in Wales. I'll leave the reader to decide whether it was option a or b.
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Surely is it obvious that "circuit-breakers" do nothing to solve the problem? At the end of each circuit-break the virus is still there.
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
I suppose the question really is do we trust judges more than politicians?
Well, I despise politicians. Particularly this lot.
But I trust judges far less. One judge, making bizarre rulings on alleged blackmail, very nearly created a situation where a court had created a privacy law in defiance of parliament (and but for John Hemming, probably would have succeeded) merely because he had a personal horror of seeing salacious details of people’s private lives in the papers.
Similarly, the Supreme Court has made some very strange rulings in the last few years, notably on prorogation, and it’s difficult to escape the sense that they did so in order to feel important and to annoy a government they didn’t like.
If I don’t have the power to kick out dodgy judges, I don’t want them making laws on my behalf. At least with Parliament I can vote the bastards out if they annoy me.
(In the US it’s a little different, as the SOCTUS can strike down laws, rather than create them.)
I think I disagree in principle. Most respectable democracies have constitutional law administered by constitutional courts that govern the legislature. That constitutional law can be perverted by despotic governments (eg Hungary, Poland) but overzealous judges aren't the big problem here.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes is an issue for any governance, but at least judges give us some custodes, which we are sorely lacking under the Johnson regime.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Surely is it obvious that "circuit-breakers" do nothing to solve the problem? At the end of each circuit-break the virus is still there.
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
Yes, it was obvious that the circuit breaker wouldn't work, it's sad that so many people who aren't idiots just parroted the Labour party line as soon as Starmer went on TV about it. Some enterprising journalist needs to pull him up on it and ask about it.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
It's not just us, if reports Macron is sabre rattling over fishing are accurate.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Doubt it. If there is a serious mess there will be plenty of blame to spread around "Why are the French imposing checks when we're not, why are we queuing with "Others" when EU visitors use our e-gates at passport control (that won't last long) and so forth. If there's a mess it will be on both sides of the channel.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
F1: with traffic likely a problem in qualifying I've decided to be a bit safety first and hedge Verstappen and Bottas a bit more for the race win. Essentially flat if anyone else wins, and positive if they do, or come second, or if the Racing Points/Albon are top 2.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
It's not just us, if reports Macron is sabre rattling over fishing are accurate.
Macron is afraid of Le Pen if he caves, Boris is afraid of Farage if he caves, that is the main reason but I am sure if there is a desire a compromise can be found between the two
From a business point of view, what else can they do? Keg beer only lasts six weeks. Why buy stock that costs a lot and you might not be able to sell? As for food stock...
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
But PB experts told me that it was and the strategy of two weeks of "circuit break" every four weeks was a great idea. Amazingly these PB experts have gone quiet after the fiasco that was the Wales circuit breaker.
Surely is it obvious that "circuit-breakers" do nothing to solve the problem? At the end of each circuit-break the virus is still there.
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
All "Circuit breaks" do is buy you some limited time to DO something, like, oh I dunno, fix track & trace, secure the border quarantine system......not much appears to have been done by any of the UK administrations (or European ones, for that matter).
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Doubt it. If there is a serious mess there will be plenty of blame to spread around "Why are the French imposing checks when we're not, why are we queuing with "Others" when EU visitors use our e-gates at passport control (that won't last long) and so forth. If there's a mess it will be on both sides of the channel.
Over 60% of voters think a No Deal Brexit would be bad for Britain according to a poll last month, only 37% think it would be a good outcome. Even if every No Deal Brexit supporter voted Tory in 2024 then the Tory voteshare would still be 6% down on 2019 and the Tories would almost certainly lose power
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
I was an ardent Remainer, but I'm not sure even I could stomach a grovelling move to re-join - with all the special benefits of membership that our great statesmen negotiated over the decades lost. What a fiasco.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
It's not just us, if reports Macron is sabre rattling over fishing are accurate.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
There is a difference
Those industries were dying, the fishing industry is not and hence the battle for fish.
The Scots fishermen have a right to protect their industry
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
It feeds the Island-Nation meme. Boris will no doubt be banging on about "This happy breed of men, this little world, This precious stone set in the silver sea" etc etc
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
I am reminded of the miners in the 80s striking and closing pits in order to keep coal production going. Or the car unions in the 70s striking and stopping car production in order to keep car plants going.
That will be the Tory East Coast Fishing Federation Millionaires then I presume.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
It's not just us, if reports Macron is sabre rattling over fishing are accurate.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
There speaks an empty vessel, a selfish "F you I am all right Jack" arse. How Tory.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Why the hell is this country so fixated on the ultra-niche practice of sea fishing (it doesn't even merit description of 'industry'). We've lost the plot.
Disagree. Fishing is about the only win from Brexit. It makes sense (if you decide to Brexit anyway) to go all out on your positive.
The EU worries that the UK might somehow cheat; the UK fears the EU wants to tie it down and dictate its rules. It’s asking a lot of any deal to salve these kinds of concerns. But leaders on both sides of these negotiations need to take a hard-headed look at the underlying issues and their respective interests, and recognise that a deal would at least allow us to start to address differences, some of which have built up over a long time. We build, or rebuild, trust by finding ways of working together, not by turning our backs.
Comments
There cannot be a final and satisfactory answer. Tinkering with constitutions certainly won't find one.
Even if we want to be global Britain we must remember France is our nearest continental neighbour just across the channel, a key NATO ally and a key member of the EU to whom we still sell 48% of our exports, this Macron spat over fishing needs to be resolved for both our sakes
That works as long as you have a government of decent chaps. When half the government believe that national salvation comes through chaos and destruction and the other half never think in advance at all, the constraints don't work.
Demand for the vaccine is likely to be such that achieving herd immunity by getting sufficient numbers of people coming forward will probably take care of itself, as others have said.
Nevertheless to get the fastest rollout they are going to have to ensure that vaccine isn't wasted, or the exercise slowed down, by inviting large numbers of people who don't show up, or don't exist.
Overall it'll be a rationing exercise, with people more eager to be done than they'll be able to cope with, at least straight away. They'll need a lot of comms to deal with all the people wanting to be done early for a whole variety of reasons.
On the island there's already a political issue over our being effectively excluded from phase one; if phase two begins as scheduled in ten days time, maybe not such an issue, but the MP has been under pressure having previously given the impression (after our having been the trial site for both Apps) that we'll be a priority area: this morning hehas come back and promised there'll be a phase two vaccination centre here.
Someone I know who is a recovering cancer patient has decided not to have the vaccine - she said I could have her earlier place in the queue, which obviously isn't going to be allowed. But the first lesson of logistics is that anything that involves lots of human decisions has a lot of ways in which difficulty can arise!
In any case the biggest constraint to Chinese expansion is not the EU or even the US whether under Trump or now Biden but India, with whom China has recently been in a border dispute, Australia may well find India its closest ally in constraining China as geographically it is far closer to China than we are and therefore it is more pressing an issue for them and Morrison is close to Modi.
An Australian-Indian-Japanese alliance with US support is far more likely to constrain China than anything we can do from the other side of the world
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1335122207832485895?s=21
Can this really be true? The scientist group referred to appears kosher.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1335169839544082432?s=20
The principle behind Roe v Wade is that individuals have the right to decide what happens with their own bodies. Now this right can be balanced against conflicting rights, eg the right of the unborn child to live. The state, in this case Texas, can use judgement in deciding where they draw the line. but they can't impose an arbitrary ban.
Judges are undoubtedly influenced by societal mores. Which is one reason why it matters that the Supreme Court is now so out of line with the mainstream of American society. Roe v Wade probably wouldn't have happened in 1953 rather than 1973.
AIUI Roe v Wade wasn't particularly controversial from a legal perspective. If you set out the issues as I have above that's the judgment you would come to. But it remains very controversial politically.
Since it reads to me the Act applies to dissolutions with regards to a new session of Parliament and not just an election? Or have I misread it?
Meanwhile the EU has plenty of means to disrupt the gadfly, up to and including supporting the break up of the UK. Canada, Australia and New Zealand now look to indigenous traditions at least as much to the tarnished Imperial past. So the fact is that although these people would actively prefer no deal, since any deal, by definition, would be a betrayal of our manifest global destiny, they are doomed to failure. The USA of course will continue the pressure that they have exerted over most of the past century: "we took their empire, they have yet to find a role".
It goes without saying that none of these deluded people are in business, and very few have studied economics or history. This circle of delusion will evaporate when the long predicted economic mess unfolds precisely as "project fear" foretold. Over the course of the next decade the current UK will revert to some kind of Europeanism, whether as one -humiliated- state or as several. Personally the judgement of history on these fools will be severe- and rightly so.
In the UK the government can pass any bill it likes but in the US the Constitution defines what powers governments can wield - and invading somebody's body is not one of them.
Hospitality is not really very switch-on-and-off-able...
I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to be asking questions about the vaccine. Too many people seem to be thinking it's a magic bullet which will kill the pandemic stone dead by Easter. (which one lady was thinking in the office last week when I popped in).
It's very good news, but too much it seems like 'skeptic' is a dirty work, which it can be, but there should be sensible and professional skeptisism.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1335145681351225344
It's over Andrew.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf
We do need effective mitigation strategies and I think that you and I had some discussion about that some time back, but circuit breakers are not the answer.
Scottish Fishing Federation urges PM to refuse bad deal for fishing industry
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes is an issue for any governance, but at least judges give us some custodes, which we are sorely lacking under the Johnson regime.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1335123172933431296?s=20
It doesn't matter because Johnson doesn't give a fuck. The rules aren't for him, they're for us.
The one that gives them all the fish they want to catch, but can't sell to their biggest market?
Or the one that lets them catch fewer fish, but still sell them to their biggest market?
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/brexit-backing-areas-oppose-no-deal-scenario-poll-finds-3269920
I was an ardent Remainer, but I'm not sure even I could stomach a grovelling move to re-join - with all the special benefits of membership that our great statesmen negotiated over the decades lost. What a fiasco.
Those industries were dying, the fishing industry is not and hence the battle for fish.
The Scots fishermen have a right to protect their industry
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-the-uk-and-eu-both-need-to-put-aside-emotion-and-cut-a-deal-1.4425580#.X8iZxDc3Wlg.twitter