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Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited November 2020 in General
Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings. – politicalbetting.com

Thank you to everyone playing their part in our national effort to defeat #coronavirusOur collective effort is suppressing the virus, but it's vital we continue to follow the rules to protect our NHS & save lives.?? ???? ??? ??????? ????, ????????. pic.twitter.com/QgSQ9ZuUKR

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    217th
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    I don't think you can count non-births as lost life years. It's like saying using contraception is the murder of a theoretically infinite number of people.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    1st like Donald
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited November 2020
    Very interesting, Foxy. Quite agree that my generation needs to stop being seen as cash piñata. Anecdotally, my wife and I have put off having kids until nex year when this is all over. On the other hand basically everyone else we know is pregnant, at last count within our social circle there are 6 pregnancies due from Feb to June. Could just be a coincidence though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    FPT
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    I love a good rhyme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

    Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.
    I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

  • We have three kids so doing our bit. My wife was getting a bit broody again recently but I had to knock that on the head. Three is enough work already.
    If our children and their friends are anything to go by I'd say that we are in good hands. Hardworking, responsible, open minded and kind. The kids are alright!
  • Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?
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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Interesting piece, thanks @Foxy.

    My anecdotal evidence also suggests pregnancies are up rather than down, as everyone got locked up for three months with not a lot else to do! Will be interesting to see stats for births next year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    IshmaelZ said:

    I don't think you can count non-births as lost life years. It's like saying using contraception is the murder of a theoretically infinite number of people.

    Yes, but the difference is that those births would have almost certainly happened if this was a normal year, and those 80 life years contributed 50 years of productive adult life. From a population planning perspective they have been lost.
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    I missed the word major sorry. So you've only got a microstate and tiny Scandinavian countries. No comparable major economies quite clearly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I don't think you can count non-births as lost life years. It's like saying using contraception is the murder of a theoretically infinite number of people.

    Yes, but the difference is that those births would have almost certainly happened if this was a normal year, and those 80 life years contributed 50 years of productive adult life. From a population planning perspective they have been lost.
    It will make a difference to the calculations for long term GDP growth, debt financing, etc.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?

    Because it's driving the country apart. We don't want what's happening in America to happen here.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    I don't think you can count non-births as lost life years. It's like saying using contraception is the murder of a theoretically infinite number of people.

    You can if they are births that would have happened otherwise. It will effect what we need for housing stock, infrastructure, our ability to pay for pensions etc - it is entirely relevant.
  • Mr. Gate, aye. The likes of BLM and their brand of divisive bullshit should absolutely be rejected.
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

    Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.
    I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

    I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
  • kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

    Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.
    I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

    I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.
    Do you agree that there is a major deficit currently? And forecast for years in the future?

    Do you think that is a problem?

    Do you agree that addressing the deficit in ways that minimise the impact on economic growth is the right thing to do?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    edited November 2020

    Mr. Gate, aye. The likes of BLM and their brand of divisive bullshit should absolutely be rejected.

    I also reject left-wing culture war-ism.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
  • Very interesting article, Foxy - thank you.

    It's one thing I think a Labour government would be able to do that a Conservative government cannot - its voting coalition is far too dependent on older voters to get away with it, as May found to her cost in 2017.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?

    Because it's driving the country apart. We don't want what's happening in America to happen here.
    Which is why I’m completely and utterly opposed to it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    Nothing wrong with pointing out how disconnected they are. I don't think he called them scum, but I may have missed an earlier comment.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    As we all should.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Mr. Gate, aye. The likes of BLM and their brand of divisive bullshit should absolutely be rejected.

    I also reject left-wing culture war-ism.
    Agreed. The culture warriors of both sides are two cheeks of the same arse. Tiresome and damaging.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited November 2020

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    That’s not what I said. I said that the talking heads in the media need to get their metropolitan liberal heads around the fact they they’re totally out of touch with the country on things like overseas aid. In polite language, unlike yours.
  • kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    The first point absolutely needs fixing, 100% definitely.

    I wonder whether its possible to come up with a technical fix to change the uprating to be based on averages looking over a few years? It would still be 2.5% then but won't be insanely high.

    The government could reasonably say that the triple lock has survived but the "technical" correction would remove that anomaly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?

    Because it's driving the country apart. We don't want what's happening in America to happen here.
    Which is why I’m completely and utterly opposed to it.
    Then why must you bring "metropolitan liberals" into virtually everything?

    I am a metropolitan liberal. I live in a metropolitan city, albeit in the North East of England, and my politics are fairly liberal. Obviously I voted Remain and I am a currently a member of the Labour Party, although I wouldn't call myself a "Labour Supporter". I am not disconnected from the majority though. My girlfriend lives in Ashington in leave-voting Northumberland and I used to work in engineering in heavily leave-voting County Durham.

    If anything, I'm much more connected to "real England" than Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak are.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    Nothing wrong with pointing out how disconnected they are. I don't think he called them scum, but I may have missed an earlier comment.
    Of course I didn’t. Not my style to use language like that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    I expect a post vaccine baby boom
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited November 2020
    Yet another elected leader in US, saying one thing and doing another and getting caught...

    The Democratic mayor of the US city of Denver, Colorado, has apologised after breaking his own Thanksgiving advice to "avoid travel" by visiting family in Mississippi.

    https://twitter.com/MayorHancock/status/1331738311317094401?s=19
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    To step back from the culture war stuff....

    I find it interesting to consider that the approach being taken for the development fund in question - smaller projects with local backing and involvement - is the same as...

    The approach taken by forward thinking, modern development agencies for aid to developing countries. Not giant projects approved in the capital. Local projects for local people.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    That’s not what I said. I said that the talking heads in the media need to get their metropolitan liberal heads around the fact they they’re totally out of touch with the country on things like overseas aid. In polite language, unlike yours.
    It's not polite. Just because the media happens to be metropolitan liberals does not mean all metropolitan liberals are out of touch. You're doing the culture war thing of "us" vs "metropolitan liberals" - them.

    And of course in your head I'm sure all metropolitan liberals vote Remain and Labour and are thus the "enemy"?

    Pure culture war-ism and nothing else.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    Ignoring both the political and national financial reasons for the moment (I know, I've just thrown 99% of the reasons out of the window) surely the reason for the triple lock is to bring our state pension to a more acceptable level and to remove those without other means from poverty and relying on other benefits and doing it in a controlled gradual way. Until that is achieved it shouldn't be removed.

    Of course I have ignored a few minor points like a pandemic, Brexit and removing it might cost Boris a lot of votes. But other than that......
  • HYUFD said:
    Why the hell is Q2 data being used in November against total deaths past Q2?

    That is not comparing like-for-like at all.
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

    Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.
    I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

    I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.
    Do you agree that there is a major deficit currently? And forecast for years in the future?

    Do you think that is a problem?

    Do you agree that addressing the deficit in ways that minimise the impact on economic growth is the right thing to do?
    Er, this wasn't what I was referring to (look at the thread).
    On the fiscal front, I don't have any major objections to the government running a deficit of 19% of GDP this year, although I think that if they hadn't handled Covid so badly so that we have suffered the biggest fall in output of any major economy despite facing the exact same disease as everyone else (and then compounded it with a reckless hard Brexit) then we wouldn't be having to borrow so much.
    Going forward, as you know the government hasn't announced any significant measures to deal with the deficit yet, so we have no idea whether the government will do the right thing or not. What they have announced so far is a cut of around £10bn in spending on public services from 2021/22 onwards.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    That’s not what I said. I said that the talking heads in the media need to get their metropolitan liberal heads around the fact they they’re totally out of touch with the country on things like overseas aid. In polite language, unlike yours.
    It's not polite. Just because the media happens to be metropolitan liberals does not mean all metropolitan liberals are out of touch. You're doing the culture war thing of "us" vs "metropolitan liberals" - them.

    And of course in your head I'm sure all metropolitan liberals vote Remain and Labour and are thus the "enemy"?

    Pure culture war-ism and nothing else.
    Okay fine, I’ll let you continue to think that. I’m sure the rest of PB has little interest in our discussion.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    I missed the word major sorry. So you've only got a microstate and tiny Scandinavian countries. No comparable major economies quite clearly.
    For me, this was an area where the UK was actually world beating and could justifiably be proud.
    We'll fall behind Germany & Netherlands if we drop to 0.5%.

    Although I have my doubts about whether it will be politically possible to make such drastic cuts so quickly.

  • Yet another elected leader in US, saying one thing and doing another and getting caught...

    The Democratic mayor of the US city of Denver, Colorado, has apologised after breaking his own Thanksgiving advice to "avoid travel" by visiting family in Mississippi.

    https://twitter.com/MayorHancock/status/1331738311317094401?s=19

    True but a bit harsh to call rejoining your wife rather than being alone "visiting family".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
  • HYUFD said:
    Why the hell is Q2 data being used in November against total deaths past Q2?

    That is not comparing like-for-like at all.
    Because not all countries have published data for Q3 yet, duh. If you used the IMF's forecasts for 2020 as a whole the chart wouldn't look much different. In particular, the UK would still look shit. Because your boys have fucked this up big time.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

    And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
  • kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    Ignoring both the political and national financial reasons for the moment (I know, I've just thrown 99% of the reasons out of the window) surely the reason for the triple lock is to bring our state pension to a more acceptable level and to remove those without other means from poverty and relying on other benefits and doing it in a controlled gradual way. Until that is achieved it shouldn't be removed.

    Of course I have ignored a few minor points like a pandemic, Brexit and removing it might cost Boris a lot of votes. But other than that......
    But even that argument doesnt stand up to scrutiny. If it is about avoiding poverty, give the increases to the poorer groups in society regardless of age, pensioners are already (on average, of course not all of them) the richest age cohort.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

    I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
    Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

    However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
    That’s not what I said. I said that the talking heads in the media need to get their metropolitan liberal heads around the fact they they’re totally out of touch with the country on things like overseas aid. In polite language, unlike yours.
    It's not polite. Just because the media happens to be metropolitan liberals does not mean all metropolitan liberals are out of touch. You're doing the culture war thing of "us" vs "metropolitan liberals" - them.

    And of course in your head I'm sure all metropolitan liberals vote Remain and Labour and are thus the "enemy"?

    Pure culture war-ism and nothing else.
    Okay fine, I’ll let you continue to think that. I’m sure the rest of PB has little interest in our discussion.
    Just highlighting your hypocrisy, that's all.

    If you are against the "culture war", then stop feeding it. Criticise where criticism is due but don't turn it into an "us" vs "them" otherwise you're doing the exact same thing as the people you love to criticise.
  • Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Tax reciepts won't be down much yet. Company tax is due 8 months after the end of the companies financial year, and the income tax due in Jan 21 is for the year ending April 5 2020. The effect of lockdown hits next year, indeed that year it is likely that many companies will declare a tax loss.
  • kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    The first point absolutely needs fixing, 100% definitely.

    I wonder whether its possible to come up with a technical fix to change the uprating to be based on averages looking over a few years? It would still be 2.5% then but won't be insanely high.

    The government could reasonably say that the triple lock has survived but the "technical" correction would remove that anomaly.
    How long do supporters of the triple lock want to keep it going? Soon pension spending will overtake health, it only takes a few decades of the triple lock and the population changes Foxy has outline for it to become half of govt spending, then a few more before it consumes all government spending.

    Giving an ever increasing share of a pie to one group is just crazy and by definition eventually results in the whole pie going to the one group.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited November 2020
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

    And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
    It is affordable enough most people have still bought a property by 40 and Covid is already seeing house and flat prices fall in urban and suburban areas, only rising still in rural areas for detached houses but it is the former where most buy starter properties, the latter they only buy once their families are established
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
  • HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I concur, Boris will no longer have those pesky 2 week quarantines blocking his exploits.
  • Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    Presumably because many people of working age will unfortunately have rather a lot of time on their hands.

    Those viewing family planning as a economics based lifestyle choice will not partake in your baby boom.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

    And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
    It is affordable enough most people have still bought a property by 40 and Covid is already seeing house and flat prices fall in urban and suburban areas, only rising still in rural areas for detached houses but it is the former where most buy starter properties, the latter they only buy once their families are established
    By 40 - I bought my first house aged 24.

    That shows how much things have changed and how screwed things have become in the past 25 years.

    Also by 40 you really should have had children otherwise you are creating a complete set of other issues.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited November 2020

    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    Presumably because many people of working age will unfortunately have rather a lot of time on their hands.

    Those viewing family planning as a economics based lifestyle choice will not partake in your baby boom.
    Once we have the vaccine rollout there will not be any further lockdowns and we will also move away from the tier system and life will largely return to normal, so that does not follow either, unless you have unfortunately already lost your job as a result of the lockdowns or being in Tier 3 eg as a hospitality worker by the time we do get vaccinated
  • Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Why shouldn't we have the same view on this?

    Incidentally I've been sharing my view here since before he did so I'm not parroting him, I'd already put my flag out there.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    Hopefully not as a result of vaccine side effects messing with contraceptives!
  • Turns out the BBC were right to report that the Oxford Vaccine was 70% effective.

    GDBO, they've misled the country and the world, shame on them for raising the hopes of a nation.

    Hah! You'll be a vaccine refusnik then next year when the Oxford vaccine is rolled out?
    I'm already looking at buying the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines.
    Is it excessively cynical for me to be wondering if that is the entire point of the article?
    Has anyone read Hilda Bastian's previous article on the Pfizer vaccine?

    https://www.wired.com/story/the-latest-covid-vaccine-results-deciphered/

    She seems rather more positive about it, opening with "AN EXPERIMENTAL COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and German drug developer BioNTech (BNT) seems to be working very well, according to early trial data"

    She mentions later "We need to know more about people who are at higher risk too, including older people and people of color. No word yet on that, either."

    Which got me wondering, do we get dramatic differences in efficacy of vaccines and other medicines between racial groups? And what would happen if, say the AZ vaccine for this had proved 99% effective for whites, but below 50% for other racial groups; would it be racist to spend billions on it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
  • kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    The first point absolutely needs fixing, 100% definitely.

    I wonder whether its possible to come up with a technical fix to change the uprating to be based on averages looking over a few years? It would still be 2.5% then but won't be insanely high.

    The government could reasonably say that the triple lock has survived but the "technical" correction would remove that anomaly.
    How long do supporters of the triple lock want to keep it going? Soon pension spending will overtake health, it only takes a few decades of the triple lock and the population changes Foxy has outline for it to become half of govt spending, then a few more before it consumes all government spending.

    Giving an ever increasing share of a pie to one group is just crazy and by definition eventually results in the whole pie going to the one group.
    I'm not a triple lock supporter, I want it abolished.

    If politically its deemed impossible to demolish then my suggestion of a technical fix is to try and get rid of some of the more egregious excesses.

    Ultimately we also need a return to moderate inflation and productivity and wage growth. It is the lack of moderate inflation that is causing the triple lock to be so damaging - if there was moderate inflation and wages were growing faster than inflation then the triple lock would be far less damaging or controversial.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    Ah, cool. The future looks bleak.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

    But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
    Ignoring both the political and national financial reasons for the moment (I know, I've just thrown 99% of the reasons out of the window) surely the reason for the triple lock is to bring our state pension to a more acceptable level and to remove those without other means from poverty and relying on other benefits and doing it in a controlled gradual way. Until that is achieved it shouldn't be removed.

    Of course I have ignored a few minor points like a pandemic, Brexit and removing it might cost Boris a lot of votes. But other than that......
    But even that argument doesnt stand up to scrutiny. If it is about avoiding poverty, give the increases to the poorer groups in society regardless of age, pensioners are already (on average, of course not all of them) the richest age cohort.
    I agree completely with that, particularly as someone who has just qualified for his pension and doesn't need it.

    But that then brings you into the dilemma of universal benefits vs targeted benefits. Targeted benefits are not good because of all their flaws, but universal benefits although more efficient to administer and don't result on people missing out do result in wastage to those who don't need them.

    For this (and other reasons) I am in favour of a universal basic income with progressive income tax on earnings over that to make it fiscally neutral. Going into the details of that is huge and I don't plan to here but it gets rid of most benefits (including the basic state pension) and claws back in tax from those with extra income the extra they have got and don't need. Sorry that is very simplistic and the details are much more complicated.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    It's not exactly unknown in motorsport. I remember it happening to Peter Solberg while he was piloting a Sexy Wrexy through a Swedish forest.

    My first Mk.1 GTI (not the one I rolled on Anglesey) had, because of the impecuniosity imposed by life as a Midshipman, a set of mole grips for a steering wheel. They came off when I was doing over 100mph on the A1 near Dishforth. Fucking LOL.
  • MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

    Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

    I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

    And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
    It is affordable enough most people have still bought a property by 40 and Covid is already seeing house and flat prices fall in urban and suburban areas, only rising still in rural areas for detached houses but it is the former where most buy starter properties, the latter they only buy once their families are established
    40 is a bit late for starting a family, especially for women.

    In my header is a graph showing declining fertility from about 2012. Not unique to the UK, of course but rather a worldwide phenomenon.

    Housing costs have been part of the squeeze on the finances of the young, but other factors are in play too. Those are likely to be a factor in the years post Covid-19 too. Indeed the conclusion of my piece is that the need to address generational inequality has become more urgent.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

    Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.
    I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

    I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.
    The point was it's a bit of a stretch to interpret the comment as assuming everyone has giant homes when more likely its the result if a mishmash of advice and measures. You clearly do expect something from them as you invented a motive behind their comment when alternatives do exist.
  • MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    People won't like to hear it but with all the state support a lot of poorly run inefficient companies will have been protected this year, and been able to refinance with low interest govt backed loans. In normal times some of those would have gone bust or do so in the next couple of years and be replaced by more productive start ups. Instead they will hang on for longer and crowd out some of the newer more innovative companies who could drive productivity and growth.

    I am not complaining about that as I think it was necessary but it does make the optimistic forecasts less likely. Still there is loads of volatility so maybe the optimists will prevail, I hope so even if I don't particularly expect it.
  • MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    Agreed on the second point. The UK labour market does have a good track record of recovering quickly from shocks (probably by creating too many low paid jobs, but still) so they may be right on that. The worry I have is that the forecasts don't yet incorporate any serious austerity measures, because the government hasn't announced them yet. Once that happens I think the risk is repeated growth disappointment like in 2010-13.
    Having once discussed the growth outlook with Boris Johnson I can tell you that he really *believes* that it will be great, but that the economic knowledge or analysis underlying that view is precisely zero.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited November 2020

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory all the time. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

    And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
    It is affordable enough most people have still bought a property by 40 and Covid is already seeing house and flat prices fall in urban and suburban areas, only rising still in rural areas for detached houses but it is the former where most buy starter properties, the latter they only buy once their families are established
    By 40 - I bought my first house aged 24.

    That shows how much things have changed and how screwed things have become in the past 25 years.

    Also by 40 you really should have had children otherwise you are creating a complete set of other issues.
    The 1980s and early 1990s were an unusually high period for home ownership eg with council house sales and greater control of immigration leading to less demand.

    100 years ago of course most people rented, 60-70% of people are still home owners.

    If you are a woman you can still have a child until 45, very occasionally even later, if you are a man of course there is no age limit as to when you can have a child, even if it is advisable to have one by 50 unless you are really rich and can afford nannies etc
  • For the pension issue gut feeling is that there would be no major electoral impact with addressing the bizarre ratchet effect that we are going to see when earnings rebound. For instance a one year suspension of the triple-lock giving an inflation only rise. Longer term it probably should be changed (weakened) as it is a hostage to fortune.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.
    That's quite the hysterical take.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    I expect the biggest income shock is still to come, as the self-employed income tax returns come in, and the end of the furlough scheme is going to result in a lot of redundancies.

    There will be some sections of the economy that won’t recover to 2019 levels, High St retail, commuting and a fair amount of F&B to give some examples. As the article highlights, some of the costs of this to government will be offset by emigration, but there’s still likely to be a couple of million people out of work next year.

    I’m not all pessimistic though, I think that here is a lot of pent-up demand out there, and the savings rate has been higher than usual this year among those earning as usual. Many of the structural changes of 2020 will be seen with hindsight as positive, such as more homeworking and less business travel, even if they have a negative effect on pure GDP numbers. Brexit will be a bump in the road next year, but unlike many others I think it will be fine once the initial port disruption happens. I agree with you that a dose of inflation might well be a good thing.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

    Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?
    Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
    Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

    The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.
    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298
    Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view
    In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

    A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.
    It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

    Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.
    I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

    I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.
    The point was it's a bit of a stretch to interpret the comment as assuming everyone has giant homes when more likely its the result if a mishmash of advice and measures. You clearly do expect something from them as you invented a motive behind their comment when alternatives do exist.
    Apologies, I am sure you are right that the stupidity of government ministers rather than their absurd over-privilege was the main reason. Although of course the two explanations may be linked.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory all the time. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.

    This is a Vernichtungskrieg and we're going to win.
  • Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Why shouldn't we have the same view on this?

    Incidentally I've been sharing my view here since before he did so I'm not parroting him, I'd already put my flag out there.
    Well I guess everyone is entitled to a view, even if they have absolutely no fucking clue what they are talking about. Most of us will put Boris Johnson's into that category and even more so yours. I am not sure whether some small credit must be given to those that like you have the brass neck to give opinion on complex matters that you are clearly just guessing on as though you are speaking from a position of knowledge. I suppose it is sort of entertaining.
  • https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1331909263728513024

    Have Betfair paid out on the result of that match yet?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

    Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

    I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.
    I just don't see how we get from here to there. Our industries have had decades of underinvestment by short termist management who only care about their annual bonus. The same managers who have sacrificed investment in favour of the bonus pool aren't suddenly going to change their ways.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect a post vaccine baby boom

    I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

    And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
    It is affordable enough most people have still bought a property by 40 and Covid is already seeing house and flat prices fall in urban and suburban areas, only rising still in rural areas for detached houses but it is the former where most buy starter properties, the latter they only buy once their families are established
    40 is a bit late for starting a family, especially for women.

    In my header is a graph showing declining fertility from about 2012. Not unique to the UK, of course but rather a worldwide phenomenon.

    Housing costs have been part of the squeeze on the finances of the young, but other factors are in play too. Those are likely to be a factor in the years post Covid-19 too. Indeed the conclusion of my piece is that the need to address generational inequality has become more urgent.

    Globally the birth rate is 2.4, still above the 2.1 replacement level, it is mainly a Western problem in terms of a below replacement level birth rate, though less so in a few nations like France

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    Um. The WASPI women went to court and the finding aiui was that they did not have a case.

    I'd liek to the see the triple lock go, mind.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:
    No error bars or attempts to quantify the large uncertainties --> plot can be binned.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited November 2020
    This is nice...
    (Great headline, even if it's a little alarmist.)
    https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1331791310336847872
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory all the time. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.
    In the words of the late Michael Winner, "calm down dear".
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

    Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

    I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.
    I just don't see how we get from here to there. Our industries have had decades of underinvestment by short termist management who only care about their annual bonus. The same managers who have sacrificed investment in favour of the bonus pool aren't suddenly going to change their ways.
    In the past 2% has typically been achievable following recessions even without new technologies or developments.

    Adopting the new developments of this year to improve productivity to get an extra 0.5% should be possible.

    As I said necessity is the mother of invention and many of the businesses that have made it through this year will have done so by being forced out of their comfort zone and forced to adapt to the times. That makes it easier to adapt next year too.
  • FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory all the time. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.
    OK then. Put your Yalta hat on. To where would you like the tanks driven back?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.
    That's quite the hysterical take.
    What a surprise that you'd like to minimize the reality. 2020 was the year of a major left offensive in the culture war. BLM, 'Defund the Police', decapitating statues or throwing them in the river, taking cancel culture to ludicrous new heights - the British Library putting Ted Hughes on a list because his ancestors allegedly owned slaves in 1592 was a particularly brainless highlight - and now crying because the UK will still be borrowing £10 billion a year just to give it away.

    That was just a small sample of what they did in one year, but apparently even mentioning it is 'despicable' now ... apparently.
  • For the pension issue gut feeling is that there would be no major electoral impact with addressing the bizarre ratchet effect that we are going to see when earnings rebound. For instance a one year suspension of the triple-lock giving an inflation only rise. Longer term it probably should be changed (weakened) as it is a hostage to fortune.

    Fortune only determines how quickly pension spending gobbles up all of governmental spending under the triple lock. There is no fortune involved in it happening.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    Agreed on the second point. The UK labour market does have a good track record of recovering quickly from shocks (probably by creating too many low paid jobs, but still) so they may be right on that. The worry I have is that the forecasts don't yet incorporate any serious austerity measures, because the government hasn't announced them yet. Once that happens I think the risk is repeated growth disappointment like in 2010-13.
    Having once discussed the growth outlook with Boris Johnson I can tell you that he really *believes* that it will be great, but that the economic knowledge or analysis underlying that view is precisely zero.
    On the jobs part, take a look at the detail of the jobs that were created. They were mostly low paid jobs for EU migrant workers to cover productivity gaps because of underinvestment by management. That route isn't going to be available given new immigration rules for low wage jobs and we have a management class that just doesn't seem to understand how or why they should invest in the business, they just see it as money out of the bonus pot.

    The most egregious example I've seen was a medium sized company selling high yield paper for "investment" and around 70% of the funds raised ended up going towards director remuneration and a few golden handshakes and parachutes. They mortgaged the future of the company to ensure that they could pay the bonuses, it's not the only example of it either.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

    Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

    Stop ramping your stupid culture war.
    LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

    Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

    It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.
    Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

    No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

    Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.
    The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

    My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.
    You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.
    I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

    The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.
    I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

    You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
    Meanwhile, back in 1939....

    UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

    Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
    What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?
    I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory all the time. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.
    What do you want to push back? What do you want to replace it with, what have you lost in this so called war, how would things be different? I’m not sure I know what you and others want.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

    Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

    But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
    There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

    Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
    Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

    In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

    It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
    Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

    Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
    I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
    FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
    Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

    I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
    The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

    Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

    I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.
    I just don't see how we get from here to there. Our industries have had decades of underinvestment by short termist management who only care about their annual bonus. The same managers who have sacrificed investment in favour of the bonus pool aren't suddenly going to change their ways.
    Also, although I believe governments are best for setting the conditions for innovation, rather than trying to directly pick winners, i don't have a lot of faith that they will do either efficiency or successfully due to lack of attention to detail and knowledgeable and unwillingness to go out on a limb and do something that might be in short term unpopular.

    Much easier to talk about building ad massssshhhovise bridge. And the pressure will be on to raise taxes, bash the rich, etc. Insert talks of raising CGT, which has the effect of disincentivizing people to take risks because the ultimate payoff will be heavily taxed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Any chance of creating a homeland on Antartica for the culture warriors, where they can throw their childish insults at each other while the rest of us get on with our lives?
This discussion has been closed.