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Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings. – politicalbetting.com
Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings. – politicalbetting.com
Thank you to everyone playing their part in our national effort to defeat #coronavirusOur collective effort is suppressing the virus, but it's vital we continue to follow the rules to protect our NHS & save lives.?? ???? ??? ??????? ????, ????????. pic.twitter.com/QgSQ9ZuUKR
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You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.
If our children and their friends are anything to go by I'd say that we are in good hands. Hardworking, responsible, open minded and kind. The kids are alright!
Biden 1.07
Democrats 1.06
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.06
Trump ECV 210-239 1.09
Biden ECV 300-329 1.08
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.05
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.06
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01
AZ Dem 1.05
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.05
NV Dem 1.04
PA Dem 1.06
WI Dem 1.05
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.09
Trump exit date 2021 1.08
But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.
My anecdotal evidence also suggests pregnancies are up rather than down, as everyone got locked up for three months with not a lot else to do! Will be interesting to see stats for births next year.
I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.
But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.
Do you think that is a problem?
Do you agree that addressing the deficit in ways that minimise the impact on economic growth is the right thing to do?
https://twitter.com/PedrodelaRosa1/status/1330943683064180741
However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.
It's one thing I think a Labour government would be able to do that a Conservative government cannot - its voting coalition is far too dependent on older voters to get away with it, as May found to her cost in 2017.
Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.
I wonder whether its possible to come up with a technical fix to change the uprating to be based on averages looking over a few years? It would still be 2.5% then but won't be insanely high.
The government could reasonably say that the triple lock has survived but the "technical" correction would remove that anomaly.
I am a metropolitan liberal. I live in a metropolitan city, albeit in the North East of England, and my politics are fairly liberal. Obviously I voted Remain and I am a currently a member of the Labour Party, although I wouldn't call myself a "Labour Supporter". I am not disconnected from the majority though. My girlfriend lives in Ashington in leave-voting Northumberland and I used to work in engineering in heavily leave-voting County Durham.
If anything, I'm much more connected to "real England" than Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak are.
The Democratic mayor of the US city of Denver, Colorado, has apologised after breaking his own Thanksgiving advice to "avoid travel" by visiting family in Mississippi.
https://twitter.com/MayorHancock/status/1331738311317094401?s=19
I find it interesting to consider that the approach being taken for the development fund in question - smaller projects with local backing and involvement - is the same as...
The approach taken by forward thinking, modern development agencies for aid to developing countries. Not giant projects approved in the capital. Local projects for local people.
And of course in your head I'm sure all metropolitan liberals vote Remain and Labour and are thus the "enemy"?
Pure culture war-ism and nothing else.
Of course I have ignored a few minor points like a pandemic, Brexit and removing it might cost Boris a lot of votes. But other than that......
That is not comparing like-for-like at all.
On the fiscal front, I don't have any major objections to the government running a deficit of 19% of GDP this year, although I think that if they hadn't handled Covid so badly so that we have suffered the biggest fall in output of any major economy despite facing the exact same disease as everyone else (and then compounded it with a reckless hard Brexit) then we wouldn't be having to borrow so much.
Going forward, as you know the government hasn't announced any significant measures to deal with the deficit yet, so we have no idea whether the government will do the right thing or not. What they have announced so far is a cut of around £10bn in spending on public services from 2021/22 onwards.
We'll fall behind Germany & Netherlands if we drop to 0.5%.
Although I have my doubts about whether it will be politically possible to make such drastic cuts so quickly.
In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.
It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.
And that will only occur when housing is affordable.
If you are against the "culture war", then stop feeding it. Criticise where criticism is due but don't turn it into an "us" vs "them" otherwise you're doing the exact same thing as the people you love to criticise.
Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.
Giving an ever increasing share of a pie to one group is just crazy and by definition eventually results in the whole pie going to the one group.
UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?
Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.
Those viewing family planning as a economics based lifestyle choice will not partake in your baby boom.
That shows how much things have changed and how screwed things have become in the past 25 years.
Also by 40 you really should have had children otherwise you are creating a complete set of other issues.
Incidentally I've been sharing my view here since before he did so I'm not parroting him, I'd already put my flag out there.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-latest-covid-vaccine-results-deciphered/
She seems rather more positive about it, opening with "AN EXPERIMENTAL COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and German drug developer BioNTech (BNT) seems to be working very well, according to early trial data"
She mentions later "We need to know more about people who are at higher risk too, including older people and people of color. No word yet on that, either."
Which got me wondering, do we get dramatic differences in efficacy of vaccines and other medicines between racial groups? And what would happen if, say the AZ vaccine for this had proved 99% effective for whites, but below 50% for other racial groups; would it be racist to spend billions on it?
I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.
If politically its deemed impossible to demolish then my suggestion of a technical fix is to try and get rid of some of the more egregious excesses.
Ultimately we also need a return to moderate inflation and productivity and wage growth. It is the lack of moderate inflation that is causing the triple lock to be so damaging - if there was moderate inflation and wages were growing faster than inflation then the triple lock would be far less damaging or controversial.
But that then brings you into the dilemma of universal benefits vs targeted benefits. Targeted benefits are not good because of all their flaws, but universal benefits although more efficient to administer and don't result on people missing out do result in wastage to those who don't need them.
For this (and other reasons) I am in favour of a universal basic income with progressive income tax on earnings over that to make it fiscally neutral. Going into the details of that is huge and I don't plan to here but it gets rid of most benefits (including the basic state pension) and claws back in tax from those with extra income the extra they have got and don't need. Sorry that is very simplistic and the details are much more complicated.
My first Mk.1 GTI (not the one I rolled on Anglesey) had, because of the impecuniosity imposed by life as a Midshipman, a set of mole grips for a steering wheel. They came off when I was doing over 100mph on the A1 near Dishforth. Fucking LOL.
Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.
I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.
In my header is a graph showing declining fertility from about 2012. Not unique to the UK, of course but rather a worldwide phenomenon.
Housing costs have been part of the squeeze on the finances of the young, but other factors are in play too. Those are likely to be a factor in the years post Covid-19 too. Indeed the conclusion of my piece is that the need to address generational inequality has become more urgent.
I am not complaining about that as I think it was necessary but it does make the optimistic forecasts less likely. Still there is loads of volatility so maybe the optimists will prevail, I hope so even if I don't particularly expect it.
Having once discussed the growth outlook with Boris Johnson I can tell you that he really *believes* that it will be great, but that the economic knowledge or analysis underlying that view is precisely zero.
100 years ago of course most people rented, 60-70% of people are still home owners.
If you are a woman you can still have a child until 45, very occasionally even later, if you are a man of course there is no age limit as to when you can have a child, even if it is advisable to have one by 50 unless you are really rich and can afford nannies etc
There will be some sections of the economy that won’t recover to 2019 levels, High St retail, commuting and a fair amount of F&B to give some examples. As the article highlights, some of the costs of this to government will be offset by emigration, but there’s still likely to be a couple of million people out of work next year.
I’m not all pessimistic though, I think that here is a lot of pent-up demand out there, and the savings rate has been higher than usual this year among those earning as usual. Many of the structural changes of 2020 will be seen with hindsight as positive, such as more homeworking and less business travel, even if they have a negative effect on pure GDP numbers. Brexit will be a bump in the road next year, but unlike many others I think it will be fine once the initial port disruption happens. I agree with you that a dose of inflation might well be a good thing.
Have Betfair paid out on the result of that match yet?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate
I'd liek to the see the triple lock go, mind.
(Great headline, even if it's a little alarmist.)
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1331791310336847872
Adopting the new developments of this year to improve productivity to get an extra 0.5% should be possible.
As I said necessity is the mother of invention and many of the businesses that have made it through this year will have done so by being forced out of their comfort zone and forced to adapt to the times. That makes it easier to adapt next year too.
That was just a small sample of what they did in one year, but apparently even mentioning it is 'despicable' now ... apparently.
The most egregious example I've seen was a medium sized company selling high yield paper for "investment" and around 70% of the funds raised ended up going towards director remuneration and a few golden handshakes and parachutes. They mortgaged the future of the company to ensure that they could pay the bonuses, it's not the only example of it either.
Much easier to talk about building ad massssshhhovise bridge. And the pressure will be on to raise taxes, bash the rich, etc. Insert talks of raising CGT, which has the effect of disincentivizing people to take risks because the ultimate payoff will be heavily taxed.