I can't believe Manchester United sacked José Mourinho for the donkey that is Ole Gunnar Solskjær.
Jose always does well when he goes to a club but his desire to fight with everyone and blame everyone else for any set back inevitably becomes counterproductive after a couple of years.
Spurs do not deserve to be winning 2-0. They are playing well but City have dominated.
As for OGS, I don't think he has the sophistication to make the best use of what he has got.
I'm snowed under with work so didn't pay complete attention to the game, but Spurs seemed very comfortable in that match. It was entirely predictable that Man City would have all of the ball but Spurs would win.
As an Arsenal fan I thought we'd dodged the bullet of Spurs winning the league any time soon. I think we have to consider them very much in the race; certainly more so than Man City.
Has a side ever won the PL whilst starting the season in the Europa League?
Including UEFA Cup? Yes, Arsenal in 1997-98 and I guess Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95.
I'm not counting the UEFA cup as IIRC you could only play two games and get knocked out. Those matches also used to take place on Tuesdays and Wednesday, so not the Thursday-Sunday routine you get with the Europa League.
Strange that isn't it? Two clubs that weren't in the CL have won it recently but none that were in the purgatory of the EL - maybe not that strange as you say, because of the fixture pile up, but most team play reserves until it gets near the end
Very strange, because in my eyes, playing Thursday-Sunday is no different to playing Wednesday-Saturday like the CL teams do.
Sunday matches don't get the same atmosphere as Saturday home crowds. That is much less of an issue this season.
I'm not so sure, I prefer a Sunday 1.30pm to 4.30pm kick off time over a 12.30pm Saturday kick off.
I'm so old I remember when Sky and the PL regularly scheduled Liverpool v Manchester United at 11.15am on Saturday mornings.
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Has anyone ever said to you that the constantly sarcastic way you dismiss anyone who doesn't sing your tune makes them less likely to listen to what you have to say?
No offence intended, but personally, despite thinking you probably know your stuff, I switch off a bit
All that said, Sam, thank you for the “probably know your stuff” bit and I’ll try to take it in the mood intended. Deep breath, and back to the mode of March-September.
(I reserve the right to go sarcastic over false positive posts and Sweden! posts, though; there are always limits)
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
If the Labour Party in Scotland (or anywhere else for that matter) has a death wish, a pact with the Tories is a vehicle for that said ambition to succeed.
A big difference between the spring and autumn covid waves in the UK is that London has only been lightly affected in the second wave.
Any ideas as to why ?
Other places hit hard in the spring - Lombardy and Belgium for example - have been hit hard again in the autumn.
I don't think it's rocket science. As a stereotypical rule Londoner only socialise in pretty narrow social groups. Meanwhile all sources of superspreading outside of those social groups (nightclubs/packed pubs/London Underground) have been removed from the equation in any material way.
But those factors also apply in northern England and that's been hit pretty hard in the autumn.
Likewise Belgium, Italy etc will have similar factors applying.
It seems that London has pretty uniquely done very well for some reasons including possibly good luck.
The variability between spread events (superspreaders and minimal spreaders averaging out to the calculated R - if you happen to avoid a bunch of the superspreaders happening, you get a big benefit) is crucial, albeit when you get past a certain scale, statistics mean that it all spreads out, anyway.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
If the Labour Party in Scotland (or anywhere else for that matter) has a death wish, a pact with the Tories is a vehicle for that said ambition to succeed.
Far from it, Labour's only MP in Scotland, Ian Murray in Edinburgh South, was elected because of Tory tactical votes to beat the SNP. Labour also desperately needs Tory tactical votes in Glasgow and the central belt to have any chance of regaining seats from the SNP given it currently has fewer MSPs than both the SNP and the Tories.
It does not need to be a formal pact but Labour certainly needs to appeal to Scottish Tory voters in the central belt
I can't believe Manchester United sacked José Mourinho for the donkey that is Ole Gunnar Solskjær.
Jose always does well when he goes to a club but his desire to fight with everyone and blame everyone else for any set back inevitably becomes counterproductive after a couple of years.
Spurs do not deserve to be winning 2-0. They are playing well but City have dominated.
As for OGS, I don't think he has the sophistication to make the best use of what he has got.
I'm snowed under with work so didn't pay complete attention to the game, but Spurs seemed very comfortable in that match. It was entirely predictable that Man City would have all of the ball but Spurs would win.
As an Arsenal fan I thought we'd dodged the bullet of Spurs winning the league any time soon. I think we have to consider them very much in the race; certainly more so than Man City.
Has a side ever won the PL whilst starting the season in the Europa League?
Including UEFA Cup? Yes, Arsenal in 1997-98 and I guess Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95.
I'm not counting the UEFA cup as IIRC you could only play two games and get knocked out. Those matches also used to take place on Tuesdays and Wednesday, so not the Thursday-Sunday routine you get with the Europa League.
Strange that isn't it? Two clubs that weren't in the CL have won it recently but none that were in the purgatory of the EL - maybe not that strange as you say, because of the fixture pile up, but most team play reserves until it gets near the end
Very strange, because in my eyes, playing Thursday-Sunday is no different to playing Wednesday-Saturday like the CL teams do.
Sunday matches don't get the same atmosphere as Saturday home crowds. That is much less of an issue this season.
I'm not so sure, I prefer a Sunday 1.30pm to 4.30pm kick off time over a 12.30pm Saturday kick off.
I'm so old I remember when Sky and the PL regularly scheduled Liverpool v Manchester United at 11.15am on Saturday mornings.
Utterly ghastly experiences.
Liverpool v Man Utd? I can but imagine the horror.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
If the Labour Party in Scotland (or anywhere else for that matter) has a death wish, a pact with the Tories is a vehicle for that said ambition to succeed.
They seem to be disappearing at a rate of knots anyway
Yes. The YouGov straight after on whether Labour supporters felt the party was split was 38/32 No I think, so pretty divided opinion. Always going to be a difficult coalition to keep happy. I think Sir Keir should have humoured Jezza by keeping him irrelevantly on the BBs like an old nutter; now he has made a martyr of him
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
The hospital my wife works in had a peak of 170 cases in april, and passed 330 last week the second wave is nearly double the first.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
If the Labour Party in Scotland (or anywhere else for that matter) has a death wish, a pact with the Tories is a vehicle for that said ambition to succeed.
They seem to be disappearing at a rate of knots anyway
Already disappeared in Scotland, and never to return.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
'the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2'
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
Yes. The YouGov straight after on whether Labour supporters felt the party was split was 38/32 No I think, so pretty divided opinion. Always going to be a difficult coalition to keep happy. I think Sir Keir should have humoured Jezza by keeping him irrelevantly on the BBs like an old nutter; now he has made a martyr of him
Starmer had a choice, Margaret Hodge or Corbyn. He sensibly chose Margaret Hodge.
Yes. The YouGov straight after on whether Labour supporters felt the party was split was 38/32 No I think, so pretty divided opinion. Always going to be a difficult coalition to keep happy. I think Sir Keir should have humoured Jezza by keeping him irrelevantly on the BBs like an old nutter; now he has made a martyr of him
Starmer had a choice, Margaret Hodge or Corbyn. He sensibly chose Margaret Hodge.
Truthfully, that sounds to me like a choice between being slow sliced or being burned alive.
I have to say that the T and 5 system has improved significantly.
Mrs Foxy notified by work of possible contact in staff break room Wed PM. Has symptoms of cold, so booked test same evening 2 miles away.
Friday 1030, notified of positive result. I have some symptoms, so get test at 1200 same day 2 miles away. Outnumbered 10/1 by testing staff despite Oadby being a hotspot.
Sat 1500, Mrs Foxy fills in T and T form online. I am phoned at 1700 to be told to self isolate (though was already).
A much better timecourse than a few months ago.
Sorry to hear that. Hope your wife is ok & your test is clear
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
'the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2'
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
When even HYUFD can't get his story straight.
My story is consistent actually, we Tories will ban indyref2 regardless but it would obviously be easier to do that with a Unionist majority next year that is all
Len will read that as a sign, he needs to offload Starmer for a solid gold winner like Laura Pidcock. Quick, find her a safe seat, oh wait... didn't she already have one?
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Without commenting on specific cases, I've experienced from both sides of the fence how some management attitudes from the private sector don't work well in the public sector.
It's not simple - the worst offenders aren't always those who have come from the private sector but those who have come from central Government or other parts of the public sector into local councils.
I suspect (though have no evidence) they are told in advance the current organisation isn't functioning and they have to "shake it up". This instruction can either come from the Council's Chief Executive or from the political leadership. There is an attitude among some senior councillors incoming senior management cannot afford to be "nice" otherwise they will "go native".
That of course cuts both ways - instilling "fear" among middle managers via threats of restructures may be seen as a way of encouraging obedience and improving productivity but in my experience it's generally counter-productive. Frightened people either spread the fear or become demotivated - you catch more flies with honey than with flypaper as a wise woman once told me.
The other side of this is when you get the senior person trying to impose what they did at their last organisation onto their current organisation. It doesn't much matter if that is a private or public sector organisation (and it's amazing how many come into the public sector thinking all councils are the same) - they soon learn whatever worked where they were doesn't work where they are.
The other dimension those from the private sector struggle with is the political leadership of councils. Any assertive senior manager is going to get nowhere slowly if they antagonise the councillors so developing the right relationship with the political leadership (if it's a "swing" council the opposition leadership as well) is vital but it's a nuanced relationship which doesn't come easily to some from the private sector.
It makes no difference - everyone has a right to work in an environment free of verbal, physical and sexual intimidation and harassment. Being shouted at isn't pleasant, nor is it motivating. I've been on the end of tirades and I've never found it helpful. There are ways and means to have those conversations and fortunately in the last few years I'd like to think it's better but it behoves those in public areas of leadership to set an example, to do things properly and to be exemplars of good practice.
This site collates the claims of electoral irregularity and worse in the USA - mainly Trumpsters but also a few from the left field https://hereistheevidence.com/
From a quick look it's got plenty of conspiracies and nutjob stories. However, there are also some quite worrying stories such as the employee of Dominion the IT company involved with the ballot counting machines who swears she saw bundles of 50 votes passed through the machines time after time. There are also a raft of others which would make any veteran of the well-run UK elections system despair.
Biden's lead over Trump has now exceeded 6 million - currently it's 79,784,165 to 73,763,979 so 6,020,000 or thereabouts.
The states which have counted fewer than 99% of the votes are:
DC Washington (95%) Illinois (98%) Iowa (98%) Maine (92%) Maryland (96%) Massachusetts (95%) New York (84%) Ohio (97%)
Iowa and Ohio went for Trump but all the others are for Biden so you'd think what remained (especially from NY as I mentioned yesterday evening) would be pro-Biden and on that basis the President-elect will top 80 million votes.
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
I drove through Southwark today. It was heaving. No distancing and probably 30% masks at most
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Isn't that a requirement?
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
Even if every conservative voter in Glasgow voted labour In next year’s Holyrood elections, the SNP would still win every seat unless there is a significant swing against them. They won over 50% of votes in every seat except Kelvin - where the SNP and the Greens won 62% of the votes between them.
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Yes, the deathrate is about half of the first wave (though creeping up*), but that is not the only measure of the size of a wave.
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
I thought you were talking about Charles of PB at first.
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Foxy is rightly worried by
Hopefully, we are seeing a plateau in admissions. Crosses fingers.
Tories now back ahead in the seats they gained at GE19 45% to 43% for Labour, Tories also lead 47% to 35% in seats they held in 2019, though Labour is tied with the Tories 42% to 42% in all seats they have lost since 2005 and 50% to 34% in seats they held last year.
Labour leads 43% to 35% for the Tories in cities, the Tories lead 41% to 40% for Labour in towns and the Tories lead 46% to 30% for Labour and 7% for the LDs in rural areas.
It is only a subsample but the poll also has the Tories up to 27% in Scotland, Labour on just 18% and the SNP on 47%
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Isn't that a requirement?
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
I thought you were talking about Charles of PB at first.
LOL
I find it hilarious, that with all the modernisation of the CoE, and trying to be DownWivDerKids etc that they really think that divorced people getting married is a hill to die on. Women priests seems a more radical revision of things than that. And that was how long ago?
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Isn't that a requirement?
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
Ummm...the idea of medieval axes was that they were blunt.
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
I thought you were talking about Charles of PB at first.
I believe the Prince of Wales is the more common of the 2
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
I drove through Southwark today. It was heaving. No distancing and probably 30% masks at most
I confess I've heard similar about south London but as it's "sarf of the river" I assume it's where the two-headed troll people reside.
Here in East Ham, I'd agree on mask wearing but East Ham High Street at midday was much quieter than usual. The queues were outside the banks (not all opening on Saturday mornings currently but those that do very busy) and the fish shops (as we know, fish is a big part of the southern Indian diet) but with no tubes running due to planned engineering works, the station was quiet as well.
I'm puzzled as to why the "second wave" hasn't really impacted in London so far. It may still and it's an obvious concern but the case numbers thoughtfully posted by @Malmesbury don't seem to suggest that so far.
I don't see it as significant. It seems more certain than ever that Johnson will self destruct before the next election. All Labour have to do is remain sane keep Starmer fit and let Corbyn disappear from voters memory. Oh and put a few people with personality like Jess Phillips into the Shadow Cabinet
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Yes, the deathrate is about half of the first wave (though creeping up*), but that is not the only measure of the size of a wave.
As to the size of the wave the zoe covid app had a maximum number infected at about 2.2m around 01/04/20 while in the autumn it peaked at just over 600k.
Hm, even I think those on $400,000 should pay a little bit more. They could get rid of the maximum on the social security tax for starters.
An approach we could copy to start tackling the Covid deficit - removal of the top limit for NI contributions. And while we're at it how about extending NI to unearned income, including pensions. (Both of these would adversely affect me btw.)
I don't see it as significant. It seems more certain than ever that Johnson will self destruct before the next election. All Labour have to do is remain sane keep Starmer fit and let Corbyn disappear from voters memory. Oh and put a few people with personality like Jess Phillips into the Shadow Cabinet
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Yes, the deathrate is about half of the first wave (though creeping up*), but that is not the only measure of the size of a wave.
As to the size of the wave the zoe covid app had a maximum number infected at about 2.2m around 01/04/20 while in the autumn it peaked at just over 600k.
I think that it is now recognised that the stay at home drinking hot broth policy was a mistake that led to unnecessary mortality.
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
I thought you were talking about Charles of PB at first.
I believe the Prince of Wales is the more common of the 2
Haha! Good to see you back @HYUFD. This place is not the same without you!
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
I drove through Southwark today. It was heaving. No distancing and probably 30% masks at most
I confess I've heard similar about south London but as it's "sarf of the river" I assume it's where the two-headed troll people reside.
Here in East Ham, I'd agree on mask wearing but East Ham High Street at midday was much quieter than usual. The queues were outside the banks (not all opening on Saturday mornings currently but those that do very busy) and the fish shops (as we know, fish is a big part of the southern Indian diet) but with no tubes running due to planned engineering works, the station was quiet as well.
I'm puzzled as to why the "second wave" hasn't really impacted in London so far. It may still and it's an obvious concern but the case numbers thoughtfully posted by @Malmesbury don't seem to suggest that so far.
Southwark (or atl least Southbank) is north of the river really, but just on the south side.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Foxy is rightly worried by
Hopefully, we are seeing a plateau in admissions. Crosses fingers.
Which is why I'm wondering if hospital admissions policy has changed.
Back in the spring there was certainly an air of 'stay ill at home until its too late to help'.
I don't see it as significant. It seems more certain than ever that Johnson will self destruct before the next election. All Labour have to do is remain sane keep Starmer fit and let Corbyn disappear from voters memory. Oh and put a few people with personality like Jess Phillips into the Shadow Cabinet
There is nothing certain in politics right now
Johnson has become so similar in his disregard for rules and norms to Trump that we can be almost certain that he will meet a similar fate. Voters will come out in unprecedented numbers to see him off. Starmer like Biden just has to look like a decent human being which I think he is
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
'the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2'
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
When even HYUFD can't get his story straight.
My story is consistent actually, we Tories will ban indyref2 regardless but it would obviously be easier to do that with a Unionist majority next year that is all
Why do you bother coming on PB if you don't believe in this democracy business? There's nothing to bet on if you just go all Henry VIII.
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
I drove through Southwark today. It was heaving. No distancing and probably 30% masks at most
I confess I've heard similar about south London but as it's "sarf of the river" I assume it's where the two-headed troll people reside.
Here in East Ham, I'd agree on mask wearing but East Ham High Street at midday was much quieter than usual. The queues were outside the banks (not all opening on Saturday mornings currently but those that do very busy) and the fish shops (as we know, fish is a big part of the southern Indian diet) but with no tubes running due to planned engineering works, the station was quiet as well.
I'm puzzled as to why the "second wave" hasn't really impacted in London so far. It may still and it's an obvious concern but the case numbers thoughtfully posted by @Malmesbury don't seem to suggest that so far.
My uncle, 76 years old, cancer survivor.. slightly overweight... has got Covid. Had a positive test 12 days ago, and says he feels like he has a cold, but in any other year he would have gone to work no problem
The wide range of how this effects people is quite amazing.
Do we have a convincing explanation yet? Or any speculative ones?
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
Completely implausible. I mean, it fits all the data and the science of how the virus spreads, but surely some handwaving and talking about herd immunity which specially happens here but not in places which have had far more people infected than us would be better.
Mask wearing doesn't seem to be the miracle cure in other European countries.
Because it’s not a silver bullet. We still have hundreds dying per day, even with that, and social distancing, and taking care. None of them are silver bullets. They’re all incremental benefits that add up.
Yet the UK is suffering much less now than in the spring while other countries, Italy and Belgium for example, are doing as bad and others are doing much worse.
I am not sure that we are doing much better than first wave. In Leicester we have more admissions than April, and more baked in. That is not that unusual across the country.
Probably better than most of Europe, but we ain't done yet.
Looking at English hospital deaths the peak day per region was:
East 111 London 239 Midlands 186 NE & Yorks 117 North West 138 South East 104 South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26 London 27 Midlands 74 NE & Yorks 84 North West 82 South East 22 South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Yes, the deathrate is about half of the first wave (though creeping up*), but that is not the only measure of the size of a wave.
As to the size of the wave the zoe covid app had a maximum number infected at about 2.2m around 01/04/20 while in the autumn it peaked at just over 600k.
I think that it is now recognised that the stay at home drinking hot broth policy was a mistake that led to unnecessary mortality.
Forgetting to mix in a good stir of bleach is the mistake there, I think.
Even if every conservative voter in Glasgow voted labour In next year’s Holyrood elections, the SNP would still win every seat unless there is a significant swing against them. They won over 50% of votes in every seat except Kelvin - where the SNP and the Greens won 62% of the votes between them.
Rutherglen in the Glasgow area was 46% SNP with the Labour, Tory and LD vote more than the SNP vote.
However it is more the wider central belt where tactical voting is key for Unionists eg in Central Scotland in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse the SNP got 48% and Labour and Tory combined vote was 49%, Lothian the SNP got 47% in Edinburgh East and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 49%, in Edinburgh Pentlands the SNP got 39% and the Tory and Labour combined vote was 55%. In Mid Scotland and Fife the SNP got 47% in Clackmannanshire and Dunblane and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 48%, in Cowdenbeath the SNP vote was 46% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 50%, in Dunfermline the SNP vote was 43% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 47%. In South Scotland in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley the SNP vote was 46% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 51%.
In West Scotland in Renfrewshire South the SNP vote was 48% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 49%, in Strathkelvin and Bearsden the SNP vote was 43% and the Tory and Labour combined vote was 24%
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
And, as ALKWAYS HYUFD CONVENIENTLY FORGETS, and he is not so stupid as to do so involuntarily, REMEMBER THE SCOTTISH GREENS (I am sure you do, but others may not realise).
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
And, as ALKWAYS HYUFD CONVENIENTLY FORGETS, and he is not so stupid as to do so involuntarily, REMEMBER THE SCOTTISH GREENS (I am sure you do, but others may not realise).
A Unionist majority combines the Tories, Scottish Labour, the LDs and Galloway's Alliance for Unity, it excludes the Greens
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Isn't that a requirement?
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
Ummm...the idea of medieval axes was that they were blunt.
I think it depends on whether you are looking at a battle axe - and then which kind - vs the headsmans axe....
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Does anyone mind much about that stuff these days, other than the Justin bloke who likes calling children bastards?
He’s only exercised about Tories getting frisky. When I pointed out Johnson and Corbyn actually had pretty similar sexual histories he came out with a load of blether about how that didn’t matter.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
'the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2'
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
When even HYUFD can't get his story straight.
My story is consistent actually, we Tories will ban indyref2 regardless but it would obviously be easier to do that with a Unionist majority next year that is all
Why do you bother coming on PB if you don't believe in this democracy business? There's nothing to bet on if you just go all Henry VIII.
I do believe in democracy, unlike you I respect the once in a generation 2014 No vote
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
I drove through Southwark today. It was heaving. No distancing and probably 30% masks at most
I confess I've heard similar about south London but as it's "sarf of the river" I assume it's where the two-headed troll people reside.
Here in East Ham, I'd agree on mask wearing but East Ham High Street at midday was much quieter than usual. The queues were outside the banks (not all opening on Saturday mornings currently but those that do very busy) and the fish shops (as we know, fish is a big part of the southern Indian diet) but with no tubes running due to planned engineering works, the station was quiet as well.
I'm puzzled as to why the "second wave" hasn't really impacted in London so far. It may still and it's an obvious concern but the case numbers thoughtfully posted by @Malmesbury don't seem to suggest that so far.
London doesn't look especially great to me....
London cases
London cases scaled to 100K popluation
London R
Could you do a cases wave 1 to cases wave 2 ratio for each area / region ?
Obviously that will be affected by the low levels of testing in the spring but it should allow comparison between different areas.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
And, as ALKWAYS HYUFD CONVENIENTLY FORGETS, and he is not so stupid as to do so involuntarily, REMEMBER THE SCOTTISH GREENS (I am sure you do, but others may not realise).
A Unionist majority combines the Tories, Scottish Labour, the LDs and Galloway's Alliance for Unity, it excludes the Greens
You do, I hope, understand that the Scottish Greens count oin the other side.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
'the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2'
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
When even HYUFD can't get his story straight.
My story is consistent actually, we Tories will ban indyref2 regardless but it would obviously be easier to do that with a Unionist majority next year that is all
Why do you bother coming on PB if you don't believe in this democracy business? There's nothing to bet on if you just go all Henry VIII.
I do believe in democracy, unlike you I respect the once in a generation 2014 No vote
Now that really is an outright lie, and I don't often say that on PB.
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Does anyone mind much about that stuff these days, other than the Justin bloke who likes calling children bastards?
I suspect there's a very small number in this country, let us call them social paleoconservatives, I think they are probably CoE attendees.
My expectation is that many more people, who aren't social paleoconservatives, are more bothered by the behaviour of Charles towards Princes Diana because they took her to their hearts.
The key is not Labour going into government with the Tories, the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2 and Labour will not be able to gain the seats to do that in Glasgow and the Central Belt without Tory tactical votes
Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?
Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster which was elected on a platform of respecting the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote, if Starmer became PM in 2024 maybe
'the key is getting a Unionist majority next year so even if Sturgeon stays First Minister she has no mandate for indyref2'
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
When even HYUFD can't get his story straight.
My story is consistent actually, we Tories will ban indyref2 regardless but it would obviously be easier to do that with a Unionist majority next year that is all
Why do you bother coming on PB if you don't believe in this democracy business? There's nothing to bet on if you just go all Henry VIII.
I do believe in democracy, unlike you I respect the once in a generation 2014 No vote
As the great Sir Boyle Roche said, ‘Mr Speaker, we must be prepared to give up, if necessary, not just a part but even the whole of our constitution, to preserve the remainder.’
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile. Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
I thought you were talking about Charles of PB at first.
I believe the Prince of Wales is the more common of the 2
Interesting article @Cyclefree - I guess what it shows is that "Take Back Control" really meant "No supervision of any kind so we can stuff our mates bank accounts".
The Brexiteer govt is corrupt to the core. All we can hope is that some later govt jails the b*******ds
OT the top story on the BBC's news website is the curfew in California. Another American domestic story of the sort which infests the BBC especially at weekends when, I imagine, the place is run by bored interns watching and taking their lead from the American news channels.
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Does anyone mind much about that stuff these days, other than the Justin bloke who likes calling children bastards?
He’s only exercised about Tories getting frisky. When I pointed out Johnson and Corbyn actually had pretty similar sexual histories he came out with a load of blether about how that didn’t matter.
And only some Tories, I suspect George gets a free pass on the whole Louise thing.
Incidentally is it inadmissible to speculate whether Boris and Priti, you know?
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Does anyone mind much about that stuff these days, other than the Justin bloke who likes calling children bastards?
He’s only exercised about Tories getting frisky. When I pointed out Johnson and Corbyn actually had pretty similar sexual histories he came out with a load of blether about how that didn’t matter.
And only some Tories, I suspect George gets a free pass on the whole Louise thing.
Incidentally is it inadmissible to speculate whether Boris and Priti, you know?
Yes.
Nothing to do with the politics, it’s the mental image...
The speculative theory that my father and his former colleagues say one of the reasons this wave doesn't seem as deadly/strong as the first one is down to people wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, washing their hands regularly, and people doing their best to avoid it.
That's made the transmission less strong.
I drove through Southwark today. It was heaving. No distancing and probably 30% masks at most
I confess I've heard similar about south London but as it's "sarf of the river" I assume it's where the two-headed troll people reside.
Here in East Ham, I'd agree on mask wearing but East Ham High Street at midday was much quieter than usual. The queues were outside the banks (not all opening on Saturday mornings currently but those that do very busy) and the fish shops (as we know, fish is a big part of the southern Indian diet) but with no tubes running due to planned engineering works, the station was quiet as well.
I'm puzzled as to why the "second wave" hasn't really impacted in London so far. It may still and it's an obvious concern but the case numbers thoughtfully posted by @Malmesbury don't seem to suggest that so far.
London doesn't look especially great to me....
London cases
London cases scaled to 100K popluation
London R
Could you do a cases wave 1 to cases wave 2 ratio for each area / region ?
Obviously that will be affected by the low levels of testing in the spring but it should allow comparison between different areas.
I think this illustrates the difference in first and second waves, at least so far:
Very entertaining piece of writing Cyclefree, thank you.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
Unlikely, our next monarch and supreme governor of the Church of England is a disgusting fornicator and adulterer.
Does anyone mind much about that stuff these days, other than the Justin bloke who likes calling children bastards?
He’s only exercised about Tories getting frisky. When I pointed out Johnson and Corbyn actually had pretty similar sexual histories he came out with a load of blether about how that didn’t matter.
That’s because he’s a Puritan and he has a nasty suspicion that the Tories might actually *enjoy* it
Comments
I'm so old I remember when Sky and the PL regularly scheduled Liverpool v Manchester United at 11.15am on Saturday mornings.
Utterly ghastly experiences.
(I reserve the right to go sarcastic over false positive posts and Sweden! posts, though; there are always limits)
I’d recommend this article in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
The variability between spread events (superspreaders and minimal spreaders averaging out to the calculated R - if you happen to avoid a bunch of the superspreaders happening, you get a big benefit) is crucial, albeit when you get past a certain scale, statistics mean that it all spreads out, anyway.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330240817777176576
It does not need to be a formal pact but Labour certainly needs to appeal to Scottish Tory voters in the central belt
I can but imagine the horror.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41&LAB=38&LIB=6&Brexit=4&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
So the Tories could stay in office with DUP support as per 2017
'Does that mean that if they do get a majority, they will have a mandate for indyref2?'
'Not while we have a Tory government at Westminster'
When even HYUFD can't get his story straight.
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1330238920773218306
But ... but ... what about Cummings? Priti? Sir Alex? The Ministerial Code?
It's almost as if the voters don't actually give a shit about any of that...
East 111
London 239
Midlands 186
NE & Yorks 117
North West 138
South East 104
South West 47
All between 080420 and 110420.
Now compare to the peak day of the autumn wave:
East 26
London 27
Midlands 74
NE & Yorks 84
North West 82
South East 22
South West 23
Now those numbers will increase as the data arrives but they're going to be lower than in April.
Without commenting on specific cases, I've experienced from both sides of the fence how some management attitudes from the private sector don't work well in the public sector.
It's not simple - the worst offenders aren't always those who have come from the private sector but those who have come from central Government or other parts of the public sector into local councils.
I suspect (though have no evidence) they are told in advance the current organisation isn't functioning and they have to "shake it up". This instruction can either come from the Council's Chief Executive or from the political leadership. There is an attitude among some senior councillors incoming senior management cannot afford to be "nice" otherwise they will "go native".
That of course cuts both ways - instilling "fear" among middle managers via threats of restructures may be seen as a way of encouraging obedience and improving productivity but in my experience it's generally counter-productive. Frightened people either spread the fear or become demotivated - you catch more flies with honey than with flypaper as a wise woman once told me.
The other side of this is when you get the senior person trying to impose what they did at their last organisation onto their current organisation. It doesn't much matter if that is a private or public sector organisation (and it's amazing how many come into the public sector thinking all councils are the same) - they soon learn whatever worked where they were doesn't work where they are.
The other dimension those from the private sector struggle with is the political leadership of councils. Any assertive senior manager is going to get nowhere slowly if they antagonise the councillors so developing the right relationship with the political leadership (if it's a "swing" council the opposition leadership as well) is vital but it's a nuanced relationship which doesn't come easily to some from the private sector.
It makes no difference - everyone has a right to work in an environment free of verbal, physical and sexual intimidation and harassment. Being shouted at isn't pleasant, nor is it motivating. I've been on the end of tirades and I've never found it helpful. There are ways and means to have those conversations and fortunately in the last few years I'd like to think it's better but it behoves those in public areas of leadership to set an example, to do things properly and to be exemplars of good practice.
There's a depressing lack of moral standards and decency all round these days. I hope we can claw it back.
From a quick look it's got plenty of conspiracies and nutjob stories. However, there are also some quite worrying stories such as the employee of Dominion the IT company involved with the ballot counting machines who swears she saw bundles of 50 votes passed through the machines time after time. There are also a raft of others which would make any veteran of the well-run UK elections system despair.
Biden's lead over Trump has now exceeded 6 million - currently it's 79,784,165 to 73,763,979 so 6,020,000 or thereabouts.
The states which have counted fewer than 99% of the votes are:
DC Washington (95%)
Illinois (98%)
Iowa (98%)
Maine (92%)
Maryland (96%)
Massachusetts (95%)
New York (84%)
Ohio (97%)
Iowa and Ohio went for Trump but all the others are for Biden so you'd think what remained (especially from NY as I mentioned yesterday evening) would be pro-Biden and on that basis the President-elect will top 80 million votes.
I would have had some respect for Charles, if he had called the Archbishop of Canterbury in and, while carefully sharpening a medieval axe, suggested that
Option a) He and Camilla get married in St Pauls with said god botherer presiding. With a smile.
Option b) A spot of Reformation of the Church of England, when he becomes King. So that the king can marry who he likes.
*see:
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1330096715102384128?s=19
Hopefully, we are seeing a plateau in admissions. Crosses fingers.
Labour leads 43% to 35% for the Tories in cities, the Tories lead 41% to 40% for Labour in towns and the Tories lead 46% to 30% for Labour and 7% for the LDs in rural areas.
It is only a subsample but the poll also has the Tories up to 27% in Scotland, Labour on just 18% and the SNP on 47%
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
I find it hilarious, that with all the modernisation of the CoE, and trying to be DownWivDerKids etc that they really think that divorced people getting married is a hill to die on. Women priests seems a more radical revision of things than that. And that was how long ago?
Here in East Ham, I'd agree on mask wearing but East Ham High Street at midday was much quieter than usual. The queues were outside the banks (not all opening on Saturday mornings currently but those that do very busy) and the fish shops (as we know, fish is a big part of the southern Indian diet) but with no tubes running due to planned engineering works, the station was quiet as well.
I'm puzzled as to why the "second wave" hasn't really impacted in London so far. It may still and it's an obvious concern but the case numbers thoughtfully posted by @Malmesbury don't seem to suggest that so far.
Because while there are less than half the number in intensive care there are nearly as many overall in hospital:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
As to the size of the wave the zoe covid app had a maximum number infected at about 2.2m around 01/04/20 while in the autumn it peaked at just over 600k.
I can hear the sqeals already.
Back in the spring there was certainly an air of 'stay ill at home until its too late to help'.
London cases
London cases scaled to 100K popluation
London R
However it is more the wider central belt where tactical voting is key for Unionists eg in Central Scotland in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse the SNP got 48% and Labour and Tory combined vote was 49%, Lothian the SNP got 47% in Edinburgh East and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 49%, in Edinburgh Pentlands the SNP got 39% and the Tory and Labour combined vote was 55%. In Mid Scotland and Fife the SNP got 47% in Clackmannanshire and Dunblane and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 48%, in Cowdenbeath the SNP vote was 46% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 50%, in Dunfermline the SNP vote was 43% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 47%. In South Scotland in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley the SNP vote was 46% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 51%.
In West Scotland in Renfrewshire South the SNP vote was 48% and the Labour and Tory combined vote was 49%, in Strathkelvin and Bearsden the SNP vote was 43% and the Tory and Labour combined vote was 24%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Scottish_Parliament_election
Obviously that will be affected by the low levels of testing in the spring but it should allow comparison between different areas.
My expectation is that many more people, who aren't social paleoconservatives, are more bothered by the behaviour of Charles towards Princes Diana because they took her to their hearts.
The Brexiteer govt is corrupt to the core. All we can hope is that some later govt jails the b*******ds
Incidentally is it inadmissible to speculate whether Boris and Priti, you know?
Nothing to do with the politics, it’s the mental image...
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1330094443962245120?s=19