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If news of this vaccine had come a fortnight earlier Trump might just have held on – politicalbettin

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 16 in General
If news of this vaccine had come a fortnight earlier Trump might just have held on – politicalbetting.com

Breaking NewsModerna Covid19 Vaccine Candidate 94.5% EffectiveMore Efficacious Than Pfizer Vaccine CandidateOperation Warp Speed Another Major Success Market Indicating Huge Upside Move

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Comments

  • Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?
  • This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    I suspect for the next decade or so the governments will keep things like this active lest Covid-19 mutates.

    You can guarantee that the manifestos at the next general election will promise awesome pandemic preparedness.
    I think that is fair enough and especially if it improves the overall capabilities of the NHS wider system of testing. My fear is we are going to build a load of testing infrastructure dedicated to just COVID, rather than looking at how we can modernize and increase diagnostic capacity across all diseases.

    The reason Germany was able to get their testing up and running better than elsewhere in Europe was they already had a wide network of labs that ran all sorts of tests, which they then used to focus on COVID, not the other way around.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,365
    Fourth like Oxford...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,806
    I hope that adherents of the former leader will be able to accept SKS's decision.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,943

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Yes
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,785

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
  • tlg86 said:

    Fourth like Oxford...

    You are optimistic....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    However, the bulk of the UK's testing still uses the standard swab test that need to be analysed in a lab.

    Announcing the two new "mega labs", the government said they will use technology to speed up the process - for example through automation and robotics.

    "This means more tests will be processed more quickly and at a lower cost, and therefore faster turnaround times for test results," the Department of Health said.

    The sites will create up to 4,000 jobs, with the labs also being used to process tests for other illnesses including cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54953677

    So good that these facilities can be used for other illnesses, but bad that it sounds like just faster PCR turn arounds.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591
    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.

    One question I am trying to get answered - will they use the antibody test capacity we have sitting around, to check the effectiveness of vaccination? In theory, take your jab(s), come back x days later and an antibody test should tell you whether the vaccine has worked...

    Anyone know?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,215

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    I guess the idea is so that your phone can be folded so that it takes up less space when not in use, and protects the screen by virtue of being folded.

    If it works well enough I'd expect all phones to be folding phones, eventually.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    18,000 in the first week is piss poor. Why wouldn't you go and get a free test? Seems a no brainer to me, especially if you come into contact with vulnerable people.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,777

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,293

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Liverpool was a curious place to choose. Probably the lowest level of trust in the government in England. Any reason why?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    Feels a bit like the big push on trying to get people to buy 3D tvs a few years ago to me....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,777
    The test and trace regime is bonkers.

    If you get a test, it's negative, you still have to isolate for a fortnight apparently.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Liverpool was a curious place to choose. Probably the lowest level of trust in the government in England. Any reason why?
    I guess because rates of COVID there were among the highest in the country when they looked for somewhere to roll this out.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,777

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    Feels a bit like the big push on trying to get people to buy 3D tvs a few years ago to me....
    Yup – great analogy.
  • This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    I guess the idea is so that your phone can be folded so that it takes up less space when not in use, and protects the screen by virtue of being folded.

    If it works well enough I'd expect all phones to be folding phones, eventually.
    The idea is simple. The 'sell good phones for spectacular money to fanbois' manufacturers like Apple and Samsung have run out of new innovations to justify the £lots price tag for. So now we're into gimmicks like folding screens or LG's Batwing screen. People will once again pay £daft for such amazing things so make those.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    We are seeing similar things with computer monitors now. First it was 120hz, then 144Hz, which were noticeable improvements, then they went for 240Hz, now 360Hz.....not only can hardly any games run anywhere near that frame rate, your eyes can't pick up the difference. And same with resolution, 1440p, 4k, 5k, 6k....

    All because 144Hz 1440p monitor is dirt cheap now.
  • POTWAS.

    Timing was perfect then.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,325
    edited November 16
    To be fair that was 5 minutes after Sopel tweeted.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 491
    edited November 16

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    18,000 in the first week is piss poor. Why wouldn't you go and get a free test? Seems a no brainer to me, especially if you come into contact with vulnerable people.
    It´s obvious to me. If you go and have the test, there is a risk that you will be locked up for a fortnight. If you don´t have the test, you can say you didn´t know, so you are at liberty to go round possibly infecting others, but at least you are innocent.

    It is also a question of trust. Nobody trusts this Johnson government. Their stupid testing system is as likely to find you infectious as not, whether you are or not. And if you are infectious, it doesn´t matter really. For example, Cummings, Johnson pere, Johnson fils etc etc.

    They just aren´t serious. So it is not a serious problem. QED
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561

    However, the bulk of the UK's testing still uses the standard swab test that need to be analysed in a lab.

    Announcing the two new "mega labs", the government said they will use technology to speed up the process - for example through automation and robotics.

    "This means more tests will be processed more quickly and at a lower cost, and therefore faster turnaround times for test results," the Department of Health said.

    The sites will create up to 4,000 jobs, with the labs also being used to process tests for other illnesses including cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54953677

    So good that these facilities can be used for other illnesses, but bad that it sounds like just faster PCR turn arounds.

    will it be faster turnaround times having 2 big megalabs vs more local labs? I would have thought transport times would eat up more than any time savings from using more automation and robotics
  • According to this, the EU haven't signed their deal with Moderna...despite talking in August.

    The EU, meanwhile, has an 'unsigned' deal for 160 million does.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/world-news/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-945-per-19287853
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,740

    We are seeing similar things with computer monitors now. First it was 120hz, then 144Hz, which were noticeable improvements, then they went for 240Hz, now 360Hz.....not only can hardly any games run anywhere near that frame rate, your eyes can't pick up the difference. And same with resolution, 1440p, 4k, 5k, 6k....

    All because 144Hz 1440p monitor is dirt cheap now.

    It's all about response time for gaming (and pro excel users, I suppose). You can have a 144Hz monitor and it's still crap because the response time is so slow.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,416

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    Feels a bit like the big push on trying to get people to buy 3D tvs a few years ago to me....
    3D would have been useful if anyone actually broadcasted it (he says bitterly having paid extra for the additional glasses, so the whole family could watch it, that have never left the packaging).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    Alistair said:

    To be fair that was 5 minutes after Sopel tweeted.
    I was just joking about the use of twitter inaccuracy tag system.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    kamski said:

    However, the bulk of the UK's testing still uses the standard swab test that need to be analysed in a lab.

    Announcing the two new "mega labs", the government said they will use technology to speed up the process - for example through automation and robotics.

    "This means more tests will be processed more quickly and at a lower cost, and therefore faster turnaround times for test results," the Department of Health said.

    The sites will create up to 4,000 jobs, with the labs also being used to process tests for other illnesses including cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54953677

    So good that these facilities can be used for other illnesses, but bad that it sounds like just faster PCR turn arounds.

    will it be faster turnaround times having 2 big megalabs vs more local labs? I would have thought transport times would eat up more than any time savings from using more automation and robotics
    Well that's a very good question. Also, "single point of failure".
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,325
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    I’ve an iPhone SE (the original one). My next phone is another SE that I bought at the same time, as I figured they’d keep getting bigger.

    I only use it for calls, SMS, and as a hotspot for the iPad which is the main device.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,325
    edited November 16
    Also Coronavirus related



    Ban on events over 8 people.
  • POTWAS.

    Timing was perfect then.

    Couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    kjh said:

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    Feels a bit like the big push on trying to get people to buy 3D tvs a few years ago to me....
    3D would have been useful if anyone actually broadcasted it (he says bitterly having paid extra for the additional glasses, so the whole family could watch it, that have never left the packaging).
    They did, there were dedicated 3d sport channels.
  • dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Liverpool was a curious place to choose. Probably the lowest level of trust in the government in England. Any reason why?
    First place into Tier 3 remember. So high rates and good to squish it there so that when lockdown ends it's not back into Tier 3.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,416

    kjh said:

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    Feels a bit like the big push on trying to get people to buy 3D tvs a few years ago to me....
    3D would have been useful if anyone actually broadcasted it (he says bitterly having paid extra for the additional glasses, so the whole family could watch it, that have never left the packaging).
    They did, there were dedicated 3d sport channels.
    Yes I saw them in the shop. American Football as I recall. Never seen them since.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    RobD said:

    We are seeing similar things with computer monitors now. First it was 120hz, then 144Hz, which were noticeable improvements, then they went for 240Hz, now 360Hz.....not only can hardly any games run anywhere near that frame rate, your eyes can't pick up the difference. And same with resolution, 1440p, 4k, 5k, 6k....

    All because 144Hz 1440p monitor is dirt cheap now.

    It's all about response time for gaming (and pro excel users, I suppose). You can have a 144Hz monitor and it's still crap because the response time is so slow.
    Well yes, but even that, they are all pushing this 1ms response time stuff. But those who actually benefit from this are vanishingly small.

    Its the equivalent of people really caring about 99.x% coverage of the adobe or sRGB colour space. Yes, people in high end creative fields, it being 99.9% vs 99.8% is makes some difference, to most people none at all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,213
    Interesting report via DHL looking at the logistics of vaccine distribution depending on temperature requirements. High feasibility for:

    Stringent temperature control (eg Pfizer): 25 countries/2.5bn people
    Conventional temperature control (eg Oxford): 60 Countries/5bn people (an additional 2.5 to the above)

    Which leaves 2.8bn people - (mainly Africa, parts of ME) where it will be more challenging:

    Exhibit 8:

    https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl/global/core/documents/pdf/glo-core-delivering-pandemic-resilience-2020.pdf

  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,740

    RobD said:

    We are seeing similar things with computer monitors now. First it was 120hz, then 144Hz, which were noticeable improvements, then they went for 240Hz, now 360Hz.....not only can hardly any games run anywhere near that frame rate, your eyes can't pick up the difference. And same with resolution, 1440p, 4k, 5k, 6k....

    All because 144Hz 1440p monitor is dirt cheap now.

    It's all about response time for gaming (and pro excel users, I suppose). You can have a 144Hz monitor and it's still crap because the response time is so slow.
    Well yes, but even that, they are all pushing this 1ms response time stuff. But those who actually benefit from this are vanishingly small.

    Its the equivalent of people really caring about 99.x% coverage of the adobe colour space. Yes, people in high end creative fields, it being 99.9% vs 99.8% is makes some difference, to most people none at all.
    And like Domestos.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 621

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Has to be the way ahead. Go door to door and get everyone. Was it Slovenia that has just tested its entire population?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,634
    Alistair said:

    Also Coronavirus related



    Ban on events over 8 people.
    Wait, what? Next they'll be telling us that the law of gravity operates in Sweden too.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,771
    edited November 16
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    Feels a bit like the big push on trying to get people to buy 3D tvs a few years ago to me....
    3D would have been useful if anyone actually broadcasted it (he says bitterly having paid extra for the additional glasses, so the whole family could watch it, that have never left the packaging).
    They did, there were dedicated 3d sport channels.
    Yes I saw them in the shop. American Football as I recall. Never seen them since.
    Sky had some 3d golf, which was cool for about 10 minutes or so, until the glasses became annoying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    Challenger, champion, change-maker, * - The real Lewis Hamilton story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/extra/c1nx5lutpg/The-real-Lewis-Hamilton-story

    Getting the soap soft treatment for SPOTY.

    * tax dodger....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Has to be the way ahead. Go door to door and get everyone. Was it Slovenia that has just tested its entire population?
    Slovakia.

    Difficult to keep track of these new-fangled countries.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Has to be the way ahead. Go door to door and get everyone. Was it Slovenia that has just tested its entire population?
    The stick that Slovenia used was interesting - everyone got a envelope with the results. Those who got the all clear had to show it to their employer. Who would get massive fines for employees at work without the all clear certificate.

    Plus the police were stopping people in the street to check their certificates....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    I saw the "great reset" trending on twitter, I thought it was all about Boris clear out of Cummings and his eco-warrior stuff. Apparently it is the latest COVID conspiracy theory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    London and the SE really not seeing much during this second wave. Where as Lombardy in Italy, being smashed again.

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,634
    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,988
    "More efficacious" - surely "based on a very small sample size, it appears that the Moderna vaccine may be very slightly more efficacious than the Pfizer/BioNTech one."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    twitter.com/0Iangardner2/status/1328275383406514176

    Why have the Guardian shuttered his original YouTube stuff?

    His videos so far on his YouTube channel are getting piss poor number of views. Somebody with so many social media followers and national newspaper column should really be able to get more than a few 1000 views per video, when things like a bearded man doing food challenges can get 500k per video and even a man teaching the French, English swear words, to use against the French government for messing up COVID response does more views.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Has to be the way ahead. Go door to door and get everyone. Was it Slovenia that has just tested its entire population?
    That’s what they did here in the UAE in April. There’s lots of quite high-density accommodation areas here, usually full of construction, factory, hospitality and retail workers. They went door-to-door through these areas testing everyone, and removed anyone testing positive to a field hospital. They also made it very clear that they weren’t interested in immigration offences or any other minor misdemeanours, only in stopping the virus spreading. Worked well.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    rcs1000 said:

    "More efficacious" - surely "based on a very small sample size, it appears that the Moderna vaccine may be very slightly more efficacious than the Pfizer/BioNTech one."

    No, because what Pfizer may be saying, in effect, is that the statistical confidence interval for the efficacy is about 90-100%. In which case the Moderna result would fall in the middle of that range, and if you calculated a confidence interval from it, it would be very similar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591
    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Has to be the way ahead. Go door to door and get everyone. Was it Slovenia that has just tested its entire population?
    That’s what they did here in the UAE in April. There’s lots of quite high-density accommodation areas here, usually full of construction, factory, hospitality and retail workers. They went door-to-door through these areas testing everyone, and removed anyone testing positive to a field hospital. They also made it very clear that they weren’t interested in immigration offences or any other minor misdemeanours, only in stopping the virus spreading. Worked well.
    Slovakia used heavy fines for (in effect) not being tested.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,771
    edited November 16

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    twitter.com/0Iangardner2/status/1328275383406514176

    Why have the Guardian shuttered his original YouTube stuff?

    His videos so far on his YouTube channel are getting piss poor number of views. Somebody with so many social media followers and national newspaper column should really be able to get more than a few 1000 views per video, when things like a bearded man doing food challenges can get 500k per video and even a man teaching the French, English swear words, to use against the French government for messing up COVID response does more views.
    Traditional media seems to struggle to get large numbers of online viewers on the likes of YouTube, whereas there are some online-only or online-first creators who get huge numbers of viewers. And they aren't shoddy operations any more, they have some impressive fliming setups, with huge rented warehouses used as studios, and lots of technical support. You have gamers, people doing stunts and tricks, people doing reviews and the like, getting millions of views per video, far more than their traditional competitors, and they receive lots of sponsorship and advertising.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,785

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    twitter.com/0Iangardner2/status/1328275383406514176

    Why have the Guardian shuttered his original YouTube stuff?

    His videos so far on his YouTube channel are getting piss poor number of views. Somebody with so many social media followers and national newspaper column should really be able to get more than a few 1000 views per video, when things like a bearded man doing food challenges can get 500k per video and even a man teaching the French, English swear words, to use against the French government for messing up COVID response does more views.
    Why bother to sit and watch when one can speedread a Graun article (or glance at a tweet)?
  • Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    twitter.com/0Iangardner2/status/1328275383406514176

    Why have the Guardian shuttered his original YouTube stuff?

    His videos so far on his YouTube channel are getting piss poor number of views. Somebody with so many social media followers and national newspaper column should really be able to get more than a few 1000 views per video, when things like a bearded man doing food challenges can get 500k per video and even a man teaching the French, English swear words, to use against the French government for messing up COVID response does more views.
    Perhaps because food challenges are entertaining while Jones on the other hand ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Today's Captain Hindsight award goes to.....

    Hacks have collectively had a terrible year, haven’t they?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,331

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    He should have closed his Ocado tab before filming. Not 100% great for his man of the people schtick.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 621

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,454
    rcs1000 said:

    "More efficacious" - surely "based on a very small sample size, it appears that the Moderna vaccine may be very slightly more efficacious than the Pfizer/BioNTech one."

    "Most efficacious" © Lily the Pink.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,985
    edited November 16
    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Becauswe the vaccines will take time to give to everyone; they are not fully effective (so some fol;k are still vulnerable); and we need to stamp out any further outbreaks pdq while R spools down and the virus is eliminated? Also for incoming travellers.
    But we aren't using the 500k a day capacity now. And what sort of tests, more PCR tests? As for incoming travellers, we need systems that do the tests at the airport, not in a big lab in Leamington Spa.
    The problem is, quite simply, that people are not volunteering for testing. In the Liverpool trial, where it's free and available to anyone, symptoms or not - not the massive pickup required.

    I think that they are preparing for mandatory testing.
    Has to be the way ahead. Go door to door and get everyone. Was it Slovenia that has just tested its entire population?
    Slovakia.

    Difficult to keep track of these new-fangled countries.
    Especially when the Slovak for "Slovakia" is "Slovensko"
  • TOPPING said:

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    He should have closed his Ocado tab before filming. Not 100% great for his man of the people schtick.
    Nothing too good for the weerrrrkers.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Alistair said:

    Also Coronavirus related



    Ban on events over 8 people.
    Brillo / hot salty tears / blue and yellow facepaint running.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,711

    This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/

    I don't really get the idea of a folding phone. The large screen on my regular phone is more than enough to do phone type stuff and then I have a laptop for doing proper work.
    Quite, it's another gimmick by phone companies to get people to fork out silly money for a new model.

    I have been using a iPhone 6s Plus 128GB for years, I just change the battery every so often.

    It does everything I need, and even has a great feature – a 3.5mm audio port, so I know I can play my music pretty much wherever I am.

    What is the point of paying £££ on a new phone when the 6s Plus is fine?
    I will upgrade to the iPhone 12 Pro or Pro Max, not because it has additional or notably better phone features, but because it has a notably better camera, which may well obviate me taking a camera with me on most of my travels.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16
    glw said:

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    twitter.com/0Iangardner2/status/1328275383406514176

    Why have the Guardian shuttered his original YouTube stuff?

    His videos so far on his YouTube channel are getting piss poor number of views. Somebody with so many social media followers and national newspaper column should really be able to get more than a few 1000 views per video, when things like a bearded man doing food challenges can get 500k per video and even a man teaching the French, English swear words, to use against the French government for messing up COVID response does more views.
    Traditional media seems to struggle to get large numbers of online viewers on the likes of YouTube, whereas there are some online-only or online-first creators who get huge numbers of viewers. And they aren't shoddy operations any more, they have some impressive fliming setups, with huge rented warehouses used as studios, and lots of technical support. You have gamers, people doing stunts and tricks, people doing reviews and the like, getting millions of views per video, far more than their traditional competitors, and they receive lots of sponsorship and advertising.
    Many are ahead of traditional media now. Linus Tech Tips, not only superior content, but all videos in 4k.

    The other problem is lots of traditional media seem to think all they need to do is clip up bits from their over the air programme and upload to YouTube. If I wanted to watch Newsnight, I would want it on the telly box or iPlayer, having clips from the same show on YouTube, the odd one might go viral via some tweet, but in general people that doesn't work.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 661
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "More efficacious" - surely "based on a very small sample size, it appears that the Moderna vaccine may be very slightly more efficacious than the Pfizer/BioNTech one."

    No, because what Pfizer may be saying, in effect, is that the statistical confidence interval for the efficacy is about 90-100%. In which case the Moderna result would fall in the middle of that range, and if you calculated a confidence interval from it, it would be very similar.
    Have you got any links to a statement along those lines?

    I've be surprised (a) if the confidence interval was that narrow* and (b) that Pfizer wouldn't have publicised their point estimate, if much higher than 90% (I took it from the publicity that the point estimate was just over 90%)

    *I'd need size of both arms for both vaccines to estimate, but the 'uncertainty' in the number infected in the vaccinated group will be quite high (and there's also lesser uncertainty in the control group). Say - clutching numbers from thin air - that 10 in 20000 vaccine recipients got infected, the 95% CI for a population estimate from that alone is around 4-16 people per 20000. Say a control arm of 20000 with 90 infections, your point estimate is 89% effective, but a very crude estimate of 95%CI from uncertainty in the vaccinated group alone is 82-96% effective. That's an underestimate because there is also uncertainty in the number of infections in the control group (and maybe other design uncertainties, different populations, different exposures etc to take into account)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Urquhart, Hamilton isn't a tax dodger, and he's far from the first F1 driver to shift to Monaco.

    His self-righteousness and jumping on the BLM bandwagon is tedious, as is the virtue signalling of some sports coverage (on a rare occasion I saw some Sky preamble and it was along the lines of "We make no apology for talking about etc etc". They should've, I watch F1 for the F1, not political commentary).

    Still, next year we get the virtuous man and sport in China, land of concentration camps, and Saudi Arabia, where homosexuals are subjected to death. Can't wait for the political comments on that. And yet, I feel I they might not happen. Just a hunch.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 621

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
    Quite. I know a few people who either are or have been at MHRA, and they are not the type to have the wool pulled over their eyes. One in particular (not on a vaccine area) is still our go to guy for manuscript checking. Its his superpower to spot mistakes (from typos, to stuff that doesn;t make sense, to dodgy bits of data we were hoping to sneak through...)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    As an aside, when I had to source references when writing up stuff at university, my favourite ever was a genuine source I found proving that black is darker than white. Thanks, scientists!

    Well, either that or a lorry driving study that didn't actually study lorry drivers but asked participants to imagine they were lorry drivers.

    How that got through I'll never know.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,785

    As an aside, when I had to source references when writing up stuff at university, my favourite ever was a genuine source I found proving that black is darker than white. Thanks, scientists!

    Well, either that or a lorry driving study that didn't actually study lorry drivers but asked participants to imagine they were lorry drivers.

    How that got through I'll never know.

    On the other hand, black bodies emit more light than white, IIRC ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 16

    Mr. Urquhart, Hamilton isn't a tax dodger, and he's far from the first F1 driver to shift to Monaco.

    His self-righteousness and jumping on the BLM bandwagon is tedious, as is the virtue signalling of some sports coverage (on a rare occasion I saw some Sky preamble and it was along the lines of "We make no apology for talking about etc etc". They should've, I watch F1 for the F1, not political commentary).

    Still, next year we get the virtuous man and sport in China, land of concentration camps, and Saudi Arabia, where homosexuals are subjected to death. Can't wait for the political comments on that. And yet, I feel I they might not happen. Just a hunch.

    Is funny how so many sports / sports people very outspoken about human rights until its comes to China.

    The NBA are the worst, all the BLM slogans on the jerseys stuff, one GM wrote one tweet saying he was with the Hong Kong protestors and they forced him to delete the tweet, had to humbly apologize and they sent out all the biggest stars to say how absolutely wonderful China was. It was like he had tweeted support for the KKK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
    Quite. I know a few people who either are or have been at MHRA, and they are not the type to have the wool pulled over their eyes. One in particular (not on a vaccine area) is still our go to guy for manuscript checking. Its his superpower to spot mistakes (from typos, to stuff that doesn;t make sense, to dodgy bits of data we were hoping to sneak through...)
    As opposed to publication where throughput seems to be the demand these days.

    Given the lack of comeback for failures in peer reviewing papers - Wakefield anyone? - versus what would happen if the regulator stuffs up...

    It's all about incentives - publish shite, nothing seems to happen. The regulators are looking at career ending events, if they screw up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,691

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    I'm reading his new book. Not as good as "Chavs" or "Establishment" but a workmanlike and interesting account of the Corbyn project from the inside. Smacks of honesty rather than gloss. He's particularly tough on Milne. On certain others too including Corbyn himself. Johnny Mac is clearly the guy he really rates.

    It's called This Land: The Story of a Movement. No pictures.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    edited November 16

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
    Quite. I know a few people who either are or have been at MHRA, and they are not the type to have the wool pulled over their eyes. One in particular (not on a vaccine area) is still our go to guy for manuscript checking. Its his superpower to spot mistakes (from typos, to stuff that doesn;t make sense, to dodgy bits of data we were hoping to sneak through...)
    One of the reasons why the MHRA/EMA split was such a worry.Not a lot of those guys (or gals) about. Did the UK ones stay with MHRA or go to Amsterdam?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,454
      
    Carnyx said:

    As an aside, when I had to source references when writing up stuff at university, my favourite ever was a genuine source I found proving that black is darker than white. Thanks, scientists!

    Well, either that or a lorry driving study that didn't actually study lorry drivers but asked participants to imagine they were lorry drivers.

    How that got through I'll never know.

    On the other hand, black bodies emit more light than white, IIRC ...
    I don't think so.

  • TOPPING said:

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    He should have closed his Ocado tab before filming. Not 100% great for his man of the people schtick.
    I order from Ocada, as well as Sainsbury's, and Fortnum & Mason, and I'm a man of the people.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591

    Mr. Urquhart, Hamilton isn't a tax dodger, and he's far from the first F1 driver to shift to Monaco.

    His self-righteousness and jumping on the BLM bandwagon is tedious, as is the virtue signalling of some sports coverage (on a rare occasion I saw some Sky preamble and it was along the lines of "We make no apology for talking about etc etc". They should've, I watch F1 for the F1, not political commentary).

    Still, next year we get the virtuous man and sport in China, land of concentration camps, and Saudi Arabia, where homosexuals are subjected to death. Can't wait for the political comments on that. And yet, I feel I they might not happen. Just a hunch.

    Is funny how so many sports / sports people very outspoken about human rights until its comes to China.

    The NBA are the worst, all the BLM slogans on the jerseys stuff, one GM wrote one tweet saying he was with the Hong Kong protestors and they forced him to delete the tweet, forced to apologize and they sent out all the biggest stars to say how absolutely wonderful China was. It was like he had tweeted support for the KKK.
    LeBron James was very enthusiastic about treading on anyone who said anything about HK.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194
    edited November 16

    Mr. Urquhart, Hamilton isn't a tax dodger, and he's far from the first F1 driver to shift to Monaco.

    His self-righteousness and jumping on the BLM bandwagon is tedious, as is the virtue signalling of some sports coverage (on a rare occasion I saw some Sky preamble and it was along the lines of "We make no apology for talking about etc etc". They should've, I watch F1 for the F1, not political commentary).

    Still, next year we get the virtuous man and sport in China, land of concentration camps, and Saudi Arabia, where homosexuals are subjected to death. Can't wait for the political comments on that. And yet, I feel I they might not happen. Just a hunch.

    He touched on some of that, in a measured way, in his interview yesterday. I thought it was actually very good. He’s toned down the BLM stuff quite a bit, since he overstepped the mark with a t-shirt on the podium. .


    Competitors in global touring sports have of course been living in Monaco for decades!
  • I'm never touching Owen's bell, you might never know where it might end.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
    Quite. I know a few people who either are or have been at MHRA, and they are not the type to have the wool pulled over their eyes. One in particular (not on a vaccine area) is still our go to guy for manuscript checking. Its his superpower to spot mistakes (from typos, to stuff that doesn;t make sense, to dodgy bits of data we were hoping to sneak through...)
    As opposed to publication where throughput seems to be the demand these days.

    Given the lack of comeback for failures in peer reviewing papers - Wakefield anyone? - versus what would happen if the regulator stuffs up...

    It's all about incentives - publish shite, nothing seems to happen. The regulators are looking at career ending events, if they screw up.
    Too many departments producing papers, too many Journals.
  • TOPPING said:

    Laugh-out-loud comedy from Owen Jones here:

    He should have closed his Ocado tab before filming. Not 100% great for his man of the people schtick.
    I order from Ocada, as well as Sainsbury's, and Fortnum & Mason, and I'm a man of the people.
    And I'm a proper Northerner....from Stoke.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,691

    Mr. Urquhart, Hamilton isn't a tax dodger, and he's far from the first F1 driver to shift to Monaco.

    His self-righteousness and jumping on the BLM bandwagon is tedious, as is the virtue signalling of some sports coverage (on a rare occasion I saw some Sky preamble and it was along the lines of "We make no apology for talking about etc etc". They should've, I watch F1 for the F1, not political commentary).

    Still, next year we get the virtuous man and sport in China, land of concentration camps, and Saudi Arabia, where homosexuals are subjected to death. Can't wait for the political comments on that. And yet, I feel I they might not happen. Just a hunch.

    I remember the Russian GP a couple of years ago. Putin hanging out in the ante room after the race and joking around with the podium drivers. Uncomfortable spectacle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,785

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
    Quite. I know a few people who either are or have been at MHRA, and they are not the type to have the wool pulled over their eyes. One in particular (not on a vaccine area) is still our go to guy for manuscript checking. Its his superpower to spot mistakes (from typos, to stuff that doesn;t make sense, to dodgy bits of data we were hoping to sneak through...)
    As opposed to publication where throughput seems to be the demand these days.

    Given the lack of comeback for failures in peer reviewing papers - Wakefield anyone? - versus what would happen if the regulator stuffs up...

    It's all about incentives - publish shite, nothing seems to happen. The regulators are looking at career ending events, if they screw up.
    Quite. Referees generally don't get paid for doing scientific papers, unless things have changed a lot since I was asked every month or fortnight to referee a paper. Out of the goodness of theirt heart - but it doesn't cut the academic mustard except perhaps as a minor bit in the research engagement element of the Research Assessment Framework or whatever the periodic review of Uk university research is called now.

    However there are third party reviewers who, so to speak, do it as an integral part of their research work - the systematic reviewers such as the treatment reviews by the Cochrane Collaboration. No idea if they willbe covering vaccine trials, but getting their teeth into trials generally is part of their bread and butter.

  • I find the term 'tax dodger' really pejorative, my financial advisers call it 'tax minimisation strategies' which is much nicer sounding.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591

    Chris said:

    It's not quite clear that the Moderna vaccine is "more efficacious" than the Pfizer vaccine.

    The Pfizer press release says "The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%".

    The Moderna press release says there were "95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5%"

    Those numbers may not be directly comparable, because Pfizer may have calculated a statistical confidence interval, rather just a "point estimate". If so, the observed efficacies would probably be indistinguishable.

    Why we need to wait for the peer reviewed academic papers based on the full studies.
    I'm not sure approval will be waiting on peer reviewed papers. They will submit their evidence to the regulatory authorities for a decision (in UK MHRA). The evidence will be looked at by experts there. Of course I am sure papers will be published, but not as part of getting it into use.
    Given what you can get through peer review for publication.... I think the regulators have my confidence, not the publications.
    Quite. I know a few people who either are or have been at MHRA, and they are not the type to have the wool pulled over their eyes. One in particular (not on a vaccine area) is still our go to guy for manuscript checking. Its his superpower to spot mistakes (from typos, to stuff that doesn;t make sense, to dodgy bits of data we were hoping to sneak through...)
    As opposed to publication where throughput seems to be the demand these days.

    Given the lack of comeback for failures in peer reviewing papers - Wakefield anyone? - versus what would happen if the regulator stuffs up...

    It's all about incentives - publish shite, nothing seems to happen. The regulators are looking at career ending events, if they screw up.
    Too many departments producing papers, too many Journals.
    The problem is that there are penalties for not publishing (need papers to fill the journal).

    There are no penalties for publishing garbage. Apart from reputation. A bit....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,785
    geoffw said:

      

    Carnyx said:

    As an aside, when I had to source references when writing up stuff at university, my favourite ever was a genuine source I found proving that black is darker than white. Thanks, scientists!

    Well, either that or a lorry driving study that didn't actually study lorry drivers but asked participants to imagine they were lorry drivers.

    How that got through I'll never know.

    On the other hand, black bodies emit more light than white, IIRC ...
    I don't think so.

    Infrared no? (Dim memory of physics lessons ...).
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,414

    London and the SE really not seeing much during this second wave. Where as Lombardy in Italy, being smashed again.

    If you ever saw any TV coverage in the summer from Lombardy literally everyone was wearing masks at all times. In fact it has been law there since April 2020
  • Carnyx said:

    As an aside, when I had to source references when writing up stuff at university, my favourite ever was a genuine source I found proving that black is darker than white. Thanks, scientists!

    Well, either that or a lorry driving study that didn't actually study lorry drivers but asked participants to imagine they were lorry drivers.

    How that got through I'll never know.

    On the other hand, black bodies emit more light than white, IIRC ...
    Indeed they do, though of course they reflect less (because they absorb more).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. kinabalu, aye, and during the race sat next to Ecclestone.

    I'm fine with sport generally being apolitical. But if it wants to start delving into political matters (leaving aside that BLM is neo-Marxist bullshit) it can't only say "Racism in America, so bad" and turn a blind eye to literal concentration camps.

    At least, it can't if it wants a shred of moral integrity.
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