IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
Can't see this happening myself. We lack both the desire and ability to enforce such things.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
So we should prepare for 2021 being as crap as 2020?
If that's the case, I feel like people's expectations are not being managed...
I would have thought that businesses aimed generally at young to middle-aged adults would want to just let them in for commercial reasons. they did over this summer.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
If it all goes to plan and the AZ vaccine is as good as Pfizer and Moderna then we should have the nation majority vaccinated by the end of August 2021 with 3-4m doses per week being given by doctors, nurses, pharmacists, student doctors and student nurses.
I'm factoring in that someone like Dido Harding will be in charge of the vaccine rollout.
Christmas would seem a good time to shuffle her off....project reset and all that.
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
I wish that were entirely true. But I've had to deal with a deceased relative's estate this year as executor - yes, before, during and after lockdown - and you wouldn't believe the number of big companies which insisted on sending 5-figure sums as paper cheques even at the peak of lockdown rather than using bank transfer. Mind, you have my every sympathy as I can't see that bank workers are comparable to being banged up daily with several hundred mobile petri dishes.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Some people still think it a hoax even while dying of it:
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
If it all goes to plan and the AZ vaccine is as good as Pfizer and Moderna then we should have the nation majority vaccinated by the end of August 2021 with 3-4m doses per week being given by doctors, nurses, pharmacists, student doctors and student nurses.
I'm factoring in that someone like Dido Harding will be in charge of the vaccine rollout.
Christmas would seem a good time to shuffle her off....project reset and all that.
Seems a bit drastic. I don’t like her, but I don’t particularly want her dead. Couldn’t she be dismissed without being ‘shuffled off’ as you put it?
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
And then their female team of swimmers suddenly swept the board at the Olympics. The obvious reason turned out to be the reason.
Indeed. There is the persistent belief in Shui Gwei. Water ghosts who will drag you under and exchange bodies with you. Like a changeling. That, and Mao heavily promoting swimming for health means that not going in the water at all is default. Used to be most frustrating at the beach when lifeguards would panic if I went past my knees.
Hope to go to China one day. My wife is ethnic Chinese although very Anglo. For example she CAN swim. ☺
We do genuinely think the number of anti-vax nutters will be that high?
I don't. Once the programmes start and it's proved that everything is fine almost all of the waverers will fall into line. It will be tougher in the US though.
The phenomenon of people milling about until someone acts - which crystallises the actions of the rest - is a an interesting piece of human behaviour.
Taking out your phone and videoing this is an interesting reaction to the situation, though.
Very, very common.
The Kitty Genovese phenomenon. The more people around, the less likely any one individual is to intervene with the required help.
Like many ‘canonical’ studies, I’ve seen a reanalysing of the kitty genovese case. Suggests it’s a lot more complex than the standard narrative and certainly not as usually presented. This was in a book that also debunked the infamous prison experiment and the electric shock one. I’m always suspicious o& things like this.
We do genuinely think the number of anti-vax nutters will be that high?
I don't. Once the programmes start and it's proved that everything is fine almost all of the waverers will fall into line. It will be tougher in the US though.
I was just thinking that...all those QAnon koolaid drinkers.
We do genuinely think the number of anti-vax nutters will be that high?
Yes, sadly, Brexit has polarised far too many people, I think sustained no deal Brexit will also increase the number of antivaxxers.
They'll see that chaos and think do I really trust Boris Johnson to not screw up this vaccine rollout. All those contracts to friends and chums really is impacting the messaging on this.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
Expect a howl of special pleading over what is a "key worker."
Timpsons and Locksmiths....
I know I have only just arrived, but I will now do the hat and coat walk of shame.....
Piano tuners.
I could go back to my old job of programming. 102 keys on a keyboard need bashing, admittedly some more than others....
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Well, we look set to find out about how we can manage without schools in roughly another fortnight the way things are going.
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
We do genuinely think the number of anti-vax nutters will be that high?
Yes, sadly, Brexit has polarised far too many people, I think sustained no deal Brexit will also increase the number of antivaxxers.
They'll see that chaos and think do I really trust Boris Johnson to not screw up this vaccine rollout. All those contracts to friends and chums really is impacting the messaging on this.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
Expect a howl of special pleading over what is a "key worker."
Timpsons and Locksmiths....
I know I have only just arrived, but I will now do the hat and coat walk of shame.....
Piano tuners.
I could go back to my old job of programming. 102 keys on a keyboard need bashing, admittedly some more than others....
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
The phenomenon of people milling about until someone acts - which crystallises the actions of the rest - is a an interesting piece of human behaviour.
Taking out your phone and videoing this is an interesting reaction to the situation, though.
Very, very common.
The Kitty Genovese phenomenon. The more people around, the less likely any one individual is to intervene with the required help.
Like many ‘canonical’ studies, I’ve seen a reanalysing of the kitty genovese case. Suggests it’s a lot more complex than the standard narrative and certainly not as usually presented. This was in a book that also debunked the infamous prison experiment and the electric shock one. I’m always suspicious o& things like this.
The Milgram one is so much less interesting than it is cracked up to be. The subjects assumed there was nothing seriously wrong with following the instructions, and they were absolutely right. So what?
Off Topic: "Wind & Solar Are Cheaper Than Everything, Lazard Reports" "We recently saw the International Energy Agency (IEA) report that solar power offers the cheapest electricity in history. That was a global report. A US-focused report from Lazard recently reported something similar. The highly regarded energy analysts showed that wind and solar offer the cheapest electricity in the country, even significantly undercutting natural gas combined cycle power plants now. "
"We’re at a kind of crossover point right now, but if solar and wind continue to come down in cost while the others stay the same or get more expensive, there will be serious pressure to retire fossil and nuclear power plants early and scale up wind and solar power production even faster. Why pay more for electricity from old, dirty power plants when you can get it more cheaply from new, clean, green electricity?"
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
Well I used to work for the Ministry of Justice and a simple solution was to encrypt sensitive information when using home working - I fail to see how banks could not do the same? I am not the most technical person but there is definitely solutions to using home wi fi
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
How many people do that on their own WiFi now anyway?
We do genuinely think the number of anti-vax nutters will be that high?
Yes, sadly, Brexit has polarised far too many people, I think sustained no deal Brexit will also increase the number of antivaxxers.
They'll see that chaos and think do I really trust Boris Johnson to not screw up this vaccine rollout. All those contracts to friends and chums really is impacting the messaging on this.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
So we should prepare for 2021 being as crap as 2020?
If that's the case, I feel like people's expectations are not being managed...
I suspect once the vulnerable and key workers are vaccinated, then we might see a return to some normality for everybody by the summer of 2021, so long as we engage in things like social distancing, regular hand washing, and mask wearing.
Oh and localised lockdowns if we have some Covid-19 flare ups.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
Off Topic: "Wind & Solar Are Cheaper Than Everything, Lazard Reports" "We recently saw the International Energy Agency (IEA) report that solar power offers the cheapest electricity in history. That was a global report. A US-focused report from Lazard recently reported something similar. The highly regarded energy analysts showed that wind and solar offer the cheapest electricity in the country, even significantly undercutting natural gas combined cycle power plants now. "
"We’re at a kind of crossover point right now, but if solar and wind continue to come down in cost while the others stay the same or get more expensive, there will be serious pressure to retire fossil and nuclear power plants early and scale up wind and solar power production even faster. Why pay more for electricity from old, dirty power plants when you can get it more cheaply from new, clean, green electricity?"
That outcome was always going to happen and does vindicate the subsidies and encouragement given to the industry in the last few years. The advantages to the globe of renewables is massive. What is unfortunate is that the U.K. has been focused on nationalism rather than seeking to be at the forefront of these technologies. So while we will use this technology, far too much of it will have to come from abroad.
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
Well I used to work for the Ministry of Justice and a simple solution was to encrypt sensitive information when using home working - I fail to see how banks could not do the same? I am not the most technical person but there is definitely solutions to using home wi fi
Plenty of that is done, but plenty of things cannot be encrypted properly.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
Expect a howl of special pleading over what is a "key worker."
Timpsons and Locksmiths....
I know I have only just arrived, but I will now do the hat and coat walk of shame.....
Piano tuners.
I could go back to my old job of programming. 102 keys on a keyboard need bashing, admittedly some more than others....
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
Bet you can't do a Haiku about an IBM keyboard.
Coiled springs buckle My finger tips laugh Loudly And programs are born
We do genuinely think the number of anti-vax nutters will be that high?
Yes, sadly, Brexit has polarised far too many people, I think sustained no deal Brexit will also increase the number of antivaxxers.
They'll see that chaos and think do I really trust Boris Johnson to not screw up this vaccine rollout. All those contracts to friends and chums really is impacting the messaging on this.
At some point Keir Starmer has to formulate a Labour policy on post-Brexit relations with the EU. He should look at these polls very carefully. EEA membership seems the obvious way to capitalise on Brexit regret.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
And where does that leave healthy adults between 18 and 40 ?
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
Well I used to work for the Ministry of Justice and a simple solution was to encrypt sensitive information when using home working - I fail to see how banks could not do the same? I am not the most technical person but there is definitely solutions to using home wi fi
Plenty of that is done, but plenty of things cannot be encrypted properly.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
And where does that leave healthy adults between 18 and 40 ?
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
And where does that leave healthy adults between 18 and 40 ?
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
That’s bizarre. Why don’t people learn to swim there?
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
It makes no sense, compared to france and italy who have much higher rates of covid and already far more deaths, but the model for those two countries results in far less.
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
That’s bizarre. Why don’t people learn to swim there?
I am not sure its that clear cut , maybe some truth in it but Chinese swimmers had a whole load of success in recent olympics and whilst some of that may be down to errr substances the raw material has to be there in the first place.
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
That’s bizarre. Why don’t people learn to swim there?
Perhaps it is the old Chinese belief that if you save someone's life then you are responsible for their subsequent actions...?
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
Expect a howl of special pleading over what is a "key worker."
Timpsons and Locksmiths....
I know I have only just arrived, but I will now do the hat and coat walk of shame.....
Piano tuners.
I could go back to my old job of programming. 102 keys on a keyboard need bashing, admittedly some more than others....
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
Bet you can't do a Haiku about an IBM keyboard.
Coiled springs buckle My finger tips laugh Loudly And programs are born
More positive vaccine news which is all good. The question now is one of priorities and logistics - ideally it should be a single shot vaccine - the notion of a two-shot process (doubling the numbers at a stroke) complicates matters with some getting their second shot while others are still getting their first.
As others have suggested, there may be a form of vaccine apartheid where those who have had the vaccine will be able to start "enjoying" life while those who haven't won't. This of course depends on the efficacy of the vaccine and whether if it is a two-shot process whether people will just take one and hope for the best.
The second part is how many of the less affected will bother - the virus will be less of an issue if it is confined to the healthier, younger and unvaccinated members of society. Perhaps a substantial minority of those will simply go back to normal life and not care - after all, if the vulnerable are protected by the vaccine, what's the issue?
Managing the vaccination process is going to be a challenge for a Government which has struggled with the detail through all this - hopefully plenty of thought and organisation has gone in to who, where, when, why and how because that's people will want to know for themselves and for anyone they know who is vulnerable.
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
I found the same among Ghanians & other West Africans. Though there it seems to be especially the sea.
FWIW, I can't swim, and know lots of people who can't. We share that we made a few unsuccessful efforts when young, didn't enjoy it, and gave up - the probability that one really needs it is small, though I also know people who really love it. Takes all sorts...
The probability that one misses out on life hugely by being unable to swim is massive though: you really should try learning. There’s lots to enjoy. Wild swimming is fantastic.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
Expect a howl of special pleading over what is a "key worker."
Timpsons and Locksmiths....
I know I have only just arrived, but I will now do the hat and coat walk of shame.....
Piano tuners.
I could go back to my old job of programming. 102 keys on a keyboard need bashing, admittedly some more than others....
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
Bet you can't do a Haiku about an IBM keyboard.
Coiled springs buckle My finger tips laugh Loudly And programs are born
I lose!
That really is a very good haiku. You should have it published.
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
I found the same among Ghanians & other West Africans. Though there it seems to be especially the sea.
FWIW, I can't swim, and know lots of people who can't. We share that we made a few unsuccessful efforts when young, didn't enjoy it, and gave up - the probability that one really needs it is small, though I also know people who really love it. Takes all sorts...
The probability that one misses out on life hugely by being unable to swim is massive though: you really should try learning. There’s lots to enjoy. Wild swimming is fantastic.
Definitely don't do wild swimming if you cannot swim!
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
I found the same among Ghanians & other West Africans. Though there it seems to be especially the sea.
FWIW, I can't swim, and know lots of people who can't. We share that we made a few unsuccessful efforts when young, didn't enjoy it, and gave up - the probability that one really needs it is small, though I also know people who really love it. Takes all sorts...
The probability that one misses out on life hugely by being unable to swim is massive though: you really should try learning. There’s lots to enjoy. Wild swimming is fantastic.
Lol! You trying to get rid of our good Doctor?!
I go wild swimming a lot, but it is definitely for strong, experienced swimmers, not beginners.
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Well, we look set to find out about how we can manage without schools in roughly another fortnight the way things are going.
There's still plenty of schooling going on in Tier 3, which I guess Staffs (isn't it?) would be approaching if that was still in place.
If lockdown is working - and from Tier 3 and Devolved Nations results, there's no reason to suppose it isn't, infection rates should turn downwards mostly everywhere towards the end of this week and into next week.
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
What's your prediction for the USA, G? You once suggested 175,000. I offered 200,000.
Not very good at predicting the future, are we.
I reckon their figure for the USA - 438,000 - looks about right, Nearly half a million. Eeesh.
But it won't get much worse, by March 1 many tens of millions of vaccines will be ready.
Except all the anti-mask QAnon lot won't go near it.
More seriously, US messy health-care system and large number of illegal immigrants will make vaccinating everybody a much tougher challenge than in European countries.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
So we should prepare for 2021 being as crap as 2020?
If that's the case, I feel like people's expectations are not being managed...
I suspect once the vulnerable and key workers are vaccinated, then we might see a return to some normality for everybody by the summer of 2021, so long as we engage in things like social distancing, regular hand washing, and mask wearing.
Oh and localised lockdowns if we have some Covid-19 flare ups.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
Let people chose if they want to have the vaccine...
... and let airlines, hotels, restuarants, pubs, entertainment venues, supermarkets,... chose if they want to accept unvaccinated (or medically exempt) customers.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
The question will then be what lessons will we, both individually and collectively, have learnt. There seems an almost frantic desire to forget the whole thing and go back to December 2019 but life doesn't work that way.
An improvement in personal and public health awareness might be quite a positive - better hygiene and cleanliness means fewer sick days and less pressure on GPs and the NHS which can then prioritise on all the things which have been left by Covid.
I don't have huge expectations but even a small improvement will help.
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
It makes no sense, compared to france and italy who have much higher rates of covid and already far more deaths, but the model for those two countries results in far less.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
So we should prepare for 2021 being as crap as 2020?
If that's the case, I feel like people's expectations are not being managed...
I suspect once the vulnerable and key workers are vaccinated, then we might see a return to some normality for everybody by the summer of 2021, so long as we engage in things like social distancing, regular hand washing, and mask wearing.
Oh and localised lockdowns if we have some Covid-19 flare ups.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
Let people chose if they want to have the vaccine...
... and let airlines, hotels, restuarants, pubs, entertainment venues, supermarkets,... chose if they want to accept unvaccinated (or medically exempt) customers.
I suspect they will as who wants to hassle customers to show another piece of paper or annoy them . 100% do not need to be vaccinated anyway
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
What's your prediction for the USA, G? You once suggested 175,000. I offered 200,000.
Not very good at predicting the future, are we.
I reckon their figure for the USA - 438,000 - looks about right, Nearly half a million. Eeesh.
But it won't get much worse, by March 1 many tens of millions of vaccines will be ready.
Ah, but you have a lot of Covid sceptics in the USA. Many will refuse the vaccine for the same reason they refused to accept the virus was real - they are fuckwits. So maybe you are once agian on the low-side.
I'll go for a round half a million, but only on the assumption of a return to a semblance of normality in the White House.
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
It makes no sense, compared to france and italy who have much higher rates of covid and already far more deaths, but the model for those two countries results in far less.
Bear in mind Germany has a much larger population
Their model think deaths in Germany in the next few months will suffer 12x what it has been so far, while their covid rate is higher tham before it isn't in the same ballpark as the likes of France.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
Expect a howl of special pleading over what is a "key worker."
Timpsons and Locksmiths....
I know I have only just arrived, but I will now do the hat and coat walk of shame.....
Piano tuners.
I could go back to my old job of programming. 102 keys on a keyboard need bashing, admittedly some more than others....
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
Bet you can't do a Haiku about an IBM keyboard.
Coiled springs buckle My finger tips laugh Loudly And programs are born
I lose!
That really is a very good haiku. You should have it published.
Thank you. Of course, it is published... here on PB
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
It makes no sense, compared to france and italy who have much higher rates of covid and already far more deaths, but the model for those two countries results in far less.
Nonsense was my first thought but Worldometer agrees and they have been pretty reliable. Don't know why the graph shows a sudden upturn.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
The question will then be what lessons will we, both individually and collectively, have learnt. There seems an almost frantic desire to forget the whole thing and go back to December 2019 but life doesn't work that way.
An improvement in personal and public health awareness might be quite a positive - better hygiene and cleanliness means fewer sick days and less pressure on GPs and the NHS which can then prioritise on all the things which have been left by Covid.
I don't have huge expectations but even a small improvement will help.
I settle for people using a handkershief when they sneeze on a crowded tube train.
COVID is mostly harmless for fit and healthy under 50s, so prioritising the vulnerable is the way forward, then letting us get on with our lives. If the vulnerable are immunised why does is matter if a bunch of 15-35 year olds get it asymptomatically?
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
Well I used to work for the Ministry of Justice and a simple solution was to encrypt sensitive information when using home working - I fail to see how banks could not do the same? I am not the most technical person but there is definitely solutions to using home wi fi
Plenty of that is done, but plenty of things cannot be encrypted properly.
You might want to read up on SSL tunnelling ...
I'll leave that to the techies at work, the other issue is call recording from home.
Whilst I would take a vaccine despite being against many of the OTT measures of covid-19 this year there is no need to get the population 100% vaccinated to get back to normal for 100% of people. Anything else is vindictive and not medically logical - this is not smallpox or ebola it is a illness that only is a societal problem (where civil restrictions are considered ) because it can have the capacity to overwhelm the NHS .This cannot happen if 60% - 80% vaccinated say , so no need for people or governments to pick on people who for whatever reason choose not to get vaccinated.
It seemed fairly obvious to me 20 years ago as a student - if not the extent. Why has this been ignored by the mainstream media all this time? The critics of grade inflation - usually on the political right - have tended to see it as about creating equality and making people feel good. The reality is that it has always been about money.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
So we should prepare for 2021 being as crap as 2020?
If that's the case, I feel like people's expectations are not being managed...
I suspect once the vulnerable and key workers are vaccinated, then we might see a return to some normality for everybody by the summer of 2021, so long as we engage in things like social distancing, regular hand washing, and mask wearing.
Oh and localised lockdowns if we have some Covid-19 flare ups.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
Let people chose if they want to have the vaccine...
... and let airlines, hotels, restuarants, pubs, entertainment venues, supermarkets,... chose if they want to accept unvaccinated (or medically exempt) customers.
Well, quite. Anyone who wants to work in any service industry, where they interact with people, will be required to get a jab, You want to be a waiter, to work in Pret, to serve in a shop, to be a musician, to do some bar work, to drive a cab, to work in a school, to play your favourite sport, you will need your Vaccine Visa. And you will also need it if you want to travel outside the country. If you EVER want to have a holiday.
Nearly everyone will take the jab, however reluctantly
COVID is mostly harmless for fit and healthy under 50s, so prioritising the vulnerable is the way forward, then letting us get on with our lives. If the vulnerable are immunised why does is matter if a bunch of 15-35 year olds get it asymptomatically?
Because we don't know enough about long Covid.
Plus, there's this belief if you don't die from Covid-19 then it has no health impacts on the person infected.
I know of several young and youngish healthy friends and other people who caught Covid-19 and still struggling from its aftermath.
Off Topic: "Wind & Solar Are Cheaper Than Everything, Lazard Reports" "We recently saw the International Energy Agency (IEA) report that solar power offers the cheapest electricity in history. That was a global report. A US-focused report from Lazard recently reported something similar. The highly regarded energy analysts showed that wind and solar offer the cheapest electricity in the country, even significantly undercutting natural gas combined cycle power plants now. "
"We’re at a kind of crossover point right now, but if solar and wind continue to come down in cost while the others stay the same or get more expensive, there will be serious pressure to retire fossil and nuclear power plants early and scale up wind and solar power production even faster. Why pay more for electricity from old, dirty power plants when you can get it more cheaply from new, clean, green electricity?"
I think the current government list of key workers will determine who gets the vaccine first.
Emergency workers. Critical systems workers. NHS Staff. Care home staff. Supermarket staff. Anyone who works for a bank.
The latter one was a brilliant decision by the government.
Teachers notably absent from that list.
You've been usurped by bank workers, fairly I'd say. Sorry.
I don’t need sex. My bank fucks me every day.
But it would be bizarre to have bankers, who can work over the phone, placed ahead of teachers, who are being forced more or less at gunpoint to work in ideal transmission situations without any meaningful protection, in the queue for the vaccine.
The logic is that the country can cope, short term, with the schools being closed, it cannot cope if the financial services sector has to close for anything more than a few days.
Whilst I never have felt that either schools nor financial services need to close during this year ,i fail to see how asking bankers to WFH (as many are doing?_) will paralyse the country more so than schools being shut. Another example of than 2008 arrogance by bankers?
It's not arrogance, it's things like freezing payments on loans/hire purchase agreements/credit cards for people impacted.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
Well I used to work for the Ministry of Justice and a simple solution was to encrypt sensitive information when using home working - I fail to see how banks could not do the same? I am not the most technical person but there is definitely solutions to using home wi fi
Plenty of that is done, but plenty of things cannot be encrypted properly.
You might want to read up on SSL tunnelling ...
The problems of WFH and confidential information are not just about encryption en route. How many home-workers bought printers, and how many of those also bought shredders? How many blindfolded their children so they could not read confidential information on mummy's monitor? And their children's student activist boy and girlfriends?
It is a mistake to think these problems are only or even mainly technical.
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
A couple of months ago you already posted a prediction from that site, forecasting the exact same thing, that Germany would have the worst second wave overall. A different model (for international, gender-fluid underwear) predicted in early April that "Germany was merely three days behind the UK", when the plague went really rampant.
How did these predictions hold up? What do the numbers say now, in hindsight?
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
What's your prediction for the USA, G? You once suggested 175,000. I offered 200,000.
Not very good at predicting the future, are we.
I reckon their figure for the USA - 438,000 - looks about right, Nearly half a million. Eeesh.
But it won't get much worse, by March 1 many tens of millions of vaccines will be ready.
Except all the anti-mask QAnon lot won't go near it.
More seriously, US messy health-care system and large number of illegal immigrants will make vaccinating everybody a much tougher challenge than in European countries.
So maybe we should start a rumour that the vaccine is part of a conspiracy by the lizard people, led by Hillary Clinton, to take over people's brains so they become socialist supporters of Joe Biden. We float this on the various QAnon sites and in due course the number of QA followers begins to dwindle.
Nothing wrong with that. Just helping natural selection along a little.
IMO Japan has the most impressive vaccine portfolio so far, 120m Pfizer doses and 80m Moderna doses all due for Q1 2021 delivery. That's 100m people's worth of vaccine of the two fastest candidates and they both have around 95% effectiveness.
Absolutely smashed it.
Picking winners from vaccines is like trying to predict the premier league scores every week. You can use logic and data, but every round there is a huge amount of luck.
If the Oxford one comes good in 2-3 weeks, UK will have 100+ million doses secured across 3 vaccines all for delivery before realistically we can physically give it to everybody. If that turns out to be the case, the UK will have also smashed it. Worst case scenario, we can already have enough for 1/2 population, which is good going.
The big task now is getting it rolled out to people.
Not to everyone, surely. Those who regarded the virus as a hoax, or nothing worse than a cold or mild flu, will surely not want to bother taking it.
Well obviously the likes of Piers Corbyn won't be queuing up to get it.
Without wanting to give too much away, I'm hearing that many many retailers and entertainment/eating venues in the UK will only let in people who can prove they've had the vaccine.
I know Ticketmaster US have denied such a policy, but I reckon it is inevitable here and elsewhere.
Go to Cineworld cinemas because we only let in vaccinated people*, eat at Pizza Hut because we only let in vaccinated people* etc etc.
*I suspect they'll also let in people who cannot have a vaccine for medical reasons.
I'd be OK with this assuming supply was plentiful. Having to stay inside and not be able to socialise because you weren't yet selected for a vaccine sounds awful.
If it goes to plan, I suspect we'd have the vulnerable and key workers vaccinated by the summer of 2021 and everyone else by some time in 2022.
So we should prepare for 2021 being as crap as 2020?
If that's the case, I feel like people's expectations are not being managed...
I suspect once the vulnerable and key workers are vaccinated, then we might see a return to some normality for everybody by the summer of 2021, so long as we engage in things like social distancing, regular hand washing, and mask wearing.
Oh and localised lockdowns if we have some Covid-19 flare ups.
We can be more optimistic than that. As soon as they start vaccinating key workers rates of transmission will drop and things will normalise quite quickly. You only need a few million potential spreaders taken out of the loop and the virus will weaken, bigtime,
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
In fairness, many (most?) Chinese can't swim. It really is a remarkable feature of their culture. Here. You might drown, so pretty much everyone learns to swim as a child. There. You might drown, so don't go near the water.
I found the same among Ghanians & other West Africans. Though there it seems to be especially the sea.
FWIW, I can't swim, and know lots of people who can't. We share that we made a few unsuccessful efforts when young, didn't enjoy it, and gave up - the probability that one really needs it is small, though I also know people who really love it. Takes all sorts...
The probability that one misses out on life hugely by being unable to swim is massive though: you really should try learning. There’s lots to enjoy. Wild swimming is fantastic.
Lol! You trying to get rid of our good Doctor?!
I go wild swimming a lot, but it is definitely for strong, experienced swimmers, not beginners.
Yes, I wasn’t implying that he should try wild swimming before reaching competency!! Was ambiguously written though. Apologies!
COVID is mostly harmless for fit and healthy under 50s, so prioritising the vulnerable is the way forward, then letting us get on with our lives. If the vulnerable are immunised why does is matter if a bunch of 15-35 year olds get it asymptomatically?
Once immunisation is freely available, people should be free to choose stupid options.
Mrs Foxy has been redeployed to Covid-19 ICU. Most of the patients there were younger than her*, all ethnicities and bodyshapes too.
It seemed fairly obvious to me 20 years ago as a student - if not the extent. Why has this been ignored by the mainstream media all this time? The critics of grade inflation - usually on the political right - have tended to see it as about creating equality and making people feel good. The reality is that it has always been about money.
Just like money inflation it just cheapens the product to the extent it becomes worthless . We may have gone over a tipping point in that not long ago British University education was a world respected product .Cheapen it like it has being done and the world will notice and hold another country in esteem.
The University of Washington model (once much maligned) now predicts that the European country which will do worse overall is...... Germany.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
A couple of months ago you already posted a prediction from that site, forecasting the exact same thing, that Germany would have the worst second wave overall. A different model (for international, gender-fluid underwear) predicted in early April that "Germany was merely three days behind the UK", when the plague went really rampant.
How did these predictions hold up? What do the numbers say now, in hindsight?
I do not believe the Uni of Washington figure. I do not believe that Germany will suffer 155,000 dead by March 21.
I'm surprised by this prediction now. How on earth do they get to that high number?
It is particularly surprising, as otherwise, their model has been increasingly reliable and interesting.
Comments
Virtual hustings this Thursday. Ballots being issued on 23rd November.
Is this a shoo-in for the successful Labour candidate or do the Tories have a chance?
Mind you, have the vaccine people checked if he was in one of the trials? And did they count him as 1 or Legion?
Of course many, many people are going to totally ignore the government.
His 40% of Stockholm have herd immunity might go down as one of the biggest hubristic statements of all time.
They'll see that chaos and think do I really trust Boris Johnson to not screw up this vaccine rollout. All those contracts to friends and chums really is impacting the messaging on this.
Programmer for hire: will work anywhere that has an IBM Model M keyboard because it is the only decent one ever made. IBM 3179 terminals may also be considered....
Turns out you are a key worker.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision
74% say they will take it and this is presented as a success.
And people think the electorate could be trusted to take an informed view of brexit.
Stopping all collections activity on default accounts etc and ensuring people do not struggle.
Putting up temporary overdraft limits, freezing interest/charges.
Correcting credit files.
Because of data protection etc, you cannot access customer information from home that easily.
Would you really want some bank staff on a unsecured home wifi network accessing your personal details?
"We recently saw the International Energy Agency (IEA) report that solar power offers the cheapest electricity in history. That was a global report. A US-focused report from Lazard recently reported something similar. The highly regarded energy analysts showed that wind and solar offer the cheapest electricity in the country, even significantly undercutting natural gas combined cycle power plants now. "
"We’re at a kind of crossover point right now, but if solar and wind continue to come down in cost while the others stay the same or get more expensive, there will be serious pressure to retire fossil and nuclear power plants early and scale up wind and solar power production even faster. Why pay more for electricity from old, dirty power plants when you can get it more cheaply from new, clean, green electricity?"
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/15/wind-solar-are-cheaper-than-everything-lazard-reports/
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1328404083426865152?s=19
I can see late spring 2021 feeling quite "normal".
Tho you are right that the jabs will become pretty much mandatory, even if they aren't legally required
My finger tips laugh Loudly
And programs are born
Good night.
They envisage Germany enduring 155,000 Covid deaths by March 1 2021. I've no idea how they get the figure, but their model has been honed over time, and has also been quite accurate in recent weeks.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/germany
It makes no sense, compared to france and italy who have much higher rates of covid and already far more deaths, but the model for those two countries results in far less.
Not very good at predicting the future, are we.
More positive vaccine news which is all good. The question now is one of priorities and logistics - ideally it should be a single shot vaccine - the notion of a two-shot process (doubling the numbers at a stroke) complicates matters with some getting their second shot while others are still getting their first.
As others have suggested, there may be a form of vaccine apartheid where those who have had the vaccine will be able to start "enjoying" life while those who haven't won't. This of course depends on the efficacy of the vaccine and whether if it is a two-shot process whether people will just take one and hope for the best.
The second part is how many of the less affected will bother - the virus will be less of an issue if it is confined to the healthier, younger and unvaccinated members of society. Perhaps a substantial minority of those will simply go back to normal life and not care - after all, if the vulnerable are protected by the vaccine, what's the issue?
Managing the vaccination process is going to be a challenge for a Government which has struggled with the detail through all this - hopefully plenty of thought and organisation has gone in to who, where, when, why and how because that's people will want to know for themselves and for anyone they know who is vulnerable.
But it won't get much worse, by March 1 many tens of millions of vaccines will be ready.
I go wild swimming a lot, but it is definitely for strong, experienced swimmers, not beginners.
If lockdown is working - and from Tier 3 and Devolved Nations results, there's no reason to suppose it isn't, infection rates should turn downwards mostly everywhere towards the end of this week and into next week.
More seriously, US messy health-care system and large number of illegal immigrants will make vaccinating everybody a much tougher challenge than in European countries.
... and let airlines, hotels, restuarants, pubs, entertainment venues, supermarkets,... chose if they want to accept unvaccinated (or medically exempt) customers.
An improvement in personal and public health awareness might be quite a positive - better hygiene and cleanliness means fewer sick days and less pressure on GPs and the NHS which can then prioritise on all the things which have been left by Covid.
I don't have huge expectations but even a small improvement will help.
From case data
From hospitals
I'll go for a round half a million, but only on the assumption of a return to a semblance of normality in the White House.
It just does not compute.
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1328432789180575752
https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1328432834235797505
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/education/2019/08/great-university-con-how-british-degree-lost-its-value
It seemed fairly obvious to me 20 years ago as a student - if not the extent. Why has this been ignored by the mainstream media all this time? The critics of grade inflation - usually on the political right - have tended to see it as about creating equality and making people feel good. The reality is that it has always been about money.
drive a cab, to work in a school, to play your favourite sport, you will need your Vaccine Visa. And you will also need it if you want to travel outside the country. If you EVER want to have a holiday.
Nearly everyone will take the jab, however reluctantly
Plus, there's this belief if you don't die from Covid-19 then it has no health impacts on the person infected.
I know of several young and youngish healthy friends and other people who caught Covid-19 and still struggling from its aftermath.
Add in the cost of storage, and despatchable CCGT with CCS starts to look more attrative.
It is a mistake to think these problems are only or even mainly technical.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1328336245823565829
A different model (for international, gender-fluid underwear) predicted in early April that "Germany was merely three days behind the UK", when the plague went really rampant.
How did these predictions hold up? What do the numbers say now, in hindsight?
Nothing wrong with that. Just helping natural selection along a little.
Mrs Foxy has been redeployed to Covid-19 ICU. Most of the patients there were younger than her*, all ethnicities and bodyshapes too.
*maybe a bit biased by entry criteria.
I'm surprised by this prediction now. How on earth do they get to that high number?
It is particularly surprising, as otherwise, their model has been increasingly reliable and interesting.