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UK Punters still not totally convinced that Biden will be President – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 11 in General
imageUK Punters still not totally convinced that Biden will be President – politicalbetting.com

Above is the latest betting chart from Betdata.io of the £600m Betfair next president market.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Trump is like a bad case of the clap.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,213
    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,243
    You can get 1/4 or even a tad longer on all states ending as expected (Biden wins PA/GA/NV but loses NC, AZ doesn't actually matter either way). The 48.5 EC Handicap market. Quite remarkable. In a normal cycle it would be 1.03.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited November 11

    The train of delusion, picking up speed for about four and a half years now, is about to finally crash into the buffers, and if mitigating steps aren't taken the results won't be pretty.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 268
    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??
  • JACK_W said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    PB bows to your greater personal knowledge on the subject ....
    I will refer you to opening of this thread header I wrote last year.

    ‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,995

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,463
    Al Gore conceded on December 13th 2000, so on that basis the latest Trump could concede is the day before the EC vote
  • Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    My friend insists that children are the best STD.

    Or as he likes to call them 'crotchfruit'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 58,286
    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
  • HYUFD said:

    Al Gore conceded on December 13th 2000, so on that basis the latest Trump could concede is the day before the EC vote

    Al Gore was a man of honour, Donald Trump is not.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,606
    A 9% chance that people have misinterpreted Betfair's actual Terms and Conditions for the bet - sounds about right.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166
    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?
  • Surprised this hasn't already happened at a transport hub.

    Covid-19 outbreak at Manchester Piccadilly train station as 53 staff sent home

    It's understood a staff member took a test on Monday before arriving for his shift on Tuesday, only to receive the positive result later that day


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-piccadilly-covid-19-outbreak-19257364
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134
    It might be helpful to have a specific autogolpe market.
  • Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
  • kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    You'll be made Viceroy of Wales.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,606


    The train of delusion, picking up speed for about four and a half years now, is about to finally crash into the buffers, and if mitigating steps aren't taken the results won't be pretty.
    I have money and I have popcorn - sadly the one thing I can't do is watch it from a distance..
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 268
    kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    Unless you have experience in the higher echelons of the GOP in Mississippi on your CV, then I regret to say you are disqualified .... forgeries are however entirely valid.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,224

    HYUFD said:

    Al Gore conceded on December 13th 2000, so on that basis the latest Trump could concede is the day before the EC vote

    Al Gore was a man of honour, Donald Trump is not.
    Are there two Al Gores ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626
    edited November 11
    eek said:

    A 9% chance that people have misinterpreted Betfair's actual Terms and Conditions for the bet - sounds about right.

    I specifically asked Betfair about a coup on twitter. They don't have a clue.
    You'd have thought with half a billion quid in the balance someone might y'know be able to know what their rules actually are ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,436
    JACK_W said:

    JACK_W said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    PB bows to your greater personal knowledge on the subject ....
    I will refer you to opening of this thread header I wrote last year.

    ‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.
    Substantial clap for @TheScreamingEagles .....
    A pox on your puns.....
  • Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    Settling a £600m market? Its not the 1230 at Wincanton.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,820

    Surprised this hasn't already happened at a transport hub.

    Covid-19 outbreak at Manchester Piccadilly train station as 53 staff sent home

    It's understood a staff member took a test on Monday before arriving for his shift on Tuesday, only to receive the positive result later that day


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-piccadilly-covid-19-outbreak-19257364

    That's a really good turnaround time, hopefully all of those 53 get results just as quickly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,436
    JACK_W said:

    kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    Unless you have experience in the higher echelons of the GOP in Mississippi on your CV, then I regret to say you are disqualified .... forgeries are however entirely valid.
    Is the BBC running it?
  • Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    Settling a £600m market? Its not the 1230 at Wincanton.
    Plus I'm sure they're happy to keep getting commission from the matched bets of all those fools throwing money away.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,324
    Quincel said:

    You can get 1/4 or even a tad longer on all states ending as expected (Biden wins PA/GA/NV but loses NC, AZ doesn't actually matter either way). The 48.5 EC Handicap market. Quite remarkable. In a normal cycle it would be 1.03.

    Fuck it, broken my staking limits for that.
  • FPT
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 166

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    Settling a £600m market? Its not the 1230 at Wincanton.
    Plus I'm sure they're happy to keep getting commission from the matched bets of all those fools throwing money away.
    Quite. That actually gives them an incentive to craft ambiguous rules or rules that don't fully match the title of the market.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,397

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    I don't want anybody to rise to that one
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 58,286

    kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    You'll be made Viceroy of Wales.
    That's fine, I love the Welsh - they know their place :)
  • On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624

    JACK_W said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    PB bows to your greater personal knowledge on the subject ....
    I will refer you to opening of this thread header I wrote last year.

    ‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.
    How are you spelling gonorrhia?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,735


    The train of delusion, picking up speed for about four and a half years now, is about to finally crash into the buffers, and if mitigating steps aren't taken the results won't be pretty.
    We don't need a trade deal now Boris has discovered a vaccine!

    Although I did wonder what might happen, if our inbound 30,000,000 dose consignment from Pfizer Germany, gets held up for several months on the M2 lorry park, while HMRC check the manifests.
  • People backing Trump 61% or more of the popular vote too!

    Presumably needs all main ballots to be rejected nationwide to come in.....(not sure if thats enough but no other way)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,615
    edited November 11


  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 268
    Scott Wong and Mark Lillis of "The Hill" assess the prospects of Republicans serving in the Biden administration :

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/525390-republicans-who-could-serve-in-a-biden-government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,463
    edited November 11

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    A close aide of Ronald Reagan once remarked 'I have never seen a man so pussywhipped by his wife in all my life', this clip also illustrates the point about Nancy's control over Reagan (and I think Jill Biden will similarly be a powerful force in the new White House over Joe)

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,634

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    Well, she was a bit of a homophonophobe...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,213

    We don't need a trade deal now Boris has discovered a vaccine!

    Although I did wonder what might happen, if our inbound 30,000,000 dose consignment from Pfizer Germany, gets held up for several months on the M2 lorry park, while HMRC check the manifests.


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,735

    HYUFD said:

    Al Gore conceded on December 13th 2000, so on that basis the latest Trump could concede is the day before the EC vote

    Al Gore was a man of honour, Donald Trump is not.
    Are there two Al Gores ?
    One thing in Donald Trump Snr's favour is that he is not the worst person called Donald Trump.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,591
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    You'll be made Viceroy of Wales.
    That's fine, I love the Welsh - they know their place :)
    "It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales?"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,691
    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,308
    edited November 11
    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
  • eekeek Posts: 9,606

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
    Why? We don't hold the advantage here no matter what you may wish..
  • kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Surely the Electoral College vote now is the event?

    Or if it goes before Supreme Court and they dismiss it that would be an earlier event?
  • eek said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
    Why? We don't hold the advantage here no matter what you may wish..
    Of course we do. 🤷🏻‍♂️
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,691
    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,735

    eek said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
    Why? We don't hold the advantage here no matter what you may wish..
    Of course we do. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    It's the way you tell 'em!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,770

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    eek said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
    Why? We don't hold the advantage here no matter what you may wish..
    Of course we do. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    Do the thousands of businesses and millions of jobs that depend on the outcome of these negotiations get an opinion on this?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 58,286
    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Oh dear god. Though I blame theuniondivvie for opening the door here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,691

    kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Surely the Electoral College vote now is the event?

    Or if it goes before Supreme Court and they dismiss it that would be an earlier event?
    Could be. But we don't know and neither do Betfair. Or if they do they're not saying.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,224
    alex_ said:

    eek said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
    Why? We don't hold the advantage here no matter what you may wish..
    Of course we do. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    Do the thousands of businesses and millions of jobs that depend on the outcome of these negotiations get an opinion on this?
    Do they get an opinion on Covid ?
  • alex_ said:

    eek said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    If the EU wants a deal they can compromise and agree to our terms or meet us in the middle.
    Why? We don't hold the advantage here no matter what you may wish..
    Of course we do. 🤷🏻‍♂️
    Do the thousands of businesses and millions of jobs that depend on the outcome of these negotiations get an opinion on this?
    No, businesses and jobs don't vote.

    Employees and employers do. They got a say on in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. Had any one of those 4 gone differently we wouldn't have left the EU. Enough is enough now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,995

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    I don't want anybody to rise to that one
    They should be discharged from PB immediately.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,806
    kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Ladbrokes have but obviously different.
  • Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    Settling a £600m market? Its not the 1230 at Wincanton.
    Funny you should mention that, as my horse actually won the 1230 at Wincanton very easily counting only legal horses.

    I know Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and the reast of the lamestream betting industry say my horse fell at the first fence and had to be shot. But they don't decide horse races - the courts do.

    I'll be holding a major press conference at Radisson Blu Pest Control at 3pm to present some startling allegations about what really went down (actual evidence to follow at an unspecified point) - be there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,691
    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Bet it wasn't all glamour though.
  • Well if it is Satan, yes Satan that you are fighting . . . 👿⚔
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,634
    Scott_xP said:
    The party of patriotism? If only a large chunk of the party didn't loathe their own country they might be in with a shout...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    I don't want anybody to rise to that one
    Is that a pun, Mike ?
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Oh dear god. Though I blame theuniondivvie for opening the door here.
    Is that another one ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,615
    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
    No. I lost my nerve around 2:30am on the night and (after a bottle of red) and traded out for a loss of about £40. Boo.

    I have a bet with Ladbrokes at 6/1 to Trump will win four out of the following: Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and N Carolina. And a similar bet at 6/1 that he'll win five of them. That should put me ahead.

    I'd have been much better off if I'd gone to bed at 10pm and got up at 8am.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 58,286
    Nigelb said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    I don't want anybody to rise to that one
    Is that a pun, Mike ?
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Oh dear god. Though I blame theuniondivvie for opening the door here.
    Is that another one ?
    Not on my part
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,770
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Bet it wasn't all glamour though.
    PB only gets the 3 and 4 star anecdotes due to the delicate middle class civvie sensibilities. 5 star material remains haram.
  • alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Unless he dies between now and inauguration on Jan 20th or commits a 1st degree felony, Joe Biden will be President.

    So if you can bet against the doubters, do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    edited November 11
    To whom has this £20bn contract been awarded ?
    https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738131985
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited November 11
    Pure Charlton Heston cod-gravitas.

    American reactionaries are often stuck in this strange register of a 1950s biblical epic ; it's the old Hollywood voice of the old testament.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    edited November 11
    Barnesian said:


    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
    No. I lost my nerve around 2:30am on the night and (after a bottle of red) and traded out for a loss of about £40. Boo.


    Not to appear too annoying but 2.30 am is when I swooped on Biden's ECVs at 262. I still think he's going to hole out at 306. Which would be tidy.

    p.s. despite praising certain champagnes, like Mike I gave up alcohol. In my case I haven't touched it since February 2019. I don't think drink or sleep are conducive to spread betting. Mind you, nor are everlasting suspended markets which is what happened to Spreadex.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,324
    Barnesian said:


    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
    No. I lost my nerve around 2:30am on the night and (after a bottle of red) and traded out for a loss of about £40. Boo.

    I have a bet with Ladbrokes at 6/1 to Trump will win four out of the following: Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and N Carolina. And a similar bet at 6/1 that he'll win five of them. That should put me ahead.

    I'd have been much better off if I'd gone to bed at 10pm and got up at 8am.
    So would we all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,317
    edited November 11

    twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1326507872683962370?s=20
    twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1326515433923629056?s=20

    Hopefully this is all just bluster and we get a deal next week.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,066
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 58,286
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Bet it wasn't all glamour though.
    PB only gets the 3 and 4 star anecdotes due to the delicate middle class civvie sensibilities. 5 star material remains haram.
    That's what being working class or upper class entails? I'm glad to be out of it!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 58,286
    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,165

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,735
    Boris and his EU trade deal brinkmanship? He likes to skate on thin ice.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,397
    Barnesian said:


    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
    No. I lost my nerve around 2:30am on the night and (after a bottle of red) and traded out for a loss of about £40. Boo.

    I have a bet with Ladbrokes at 6/1 to Trump will win four out of the following: Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and N Carolina. And a similar bet at 6/1 that he'll win five of them. That should put me ahead.

    I'd have been much better off if I'd gone to bed at 10pm and got up at 8am.
    I plan to put a thread up where we can discuss our betting experience.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Alistair said:

    Barnesian said:


    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
    No. I lost my nerve around 2:30am on the night and (after a bottle of red) and traded out for a loss of about £40. Boo.

    I have a bet with Ladbrokes at 6/1 to Trump will win four out of the following: Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and N Carolina. And a similar bet at 6/1 that he'll win five of them. That should put me ahead.

    I'd have been much better off if I'd gone to bed at 10pm and got up at 8am.
    So would we all.
    No way.

    One of my best ever bets was the one I made with my head against my gut at 2.30 am.

    I have John King to thank and because I wasn't swayed by what was going on in Miami Dade. The clue to Biden's win lay in the suburbs, where he was getting at least a 5% swing from Hillary Clinton. That was robust enough to show me that selling Biden and buying Trump was panic by the markets based on 2016. If the Florida suburbs were swinging to Biden then the Midwest would too.

    Which is also, by the way, why you should be very careful betting against the Democrats on Jan 5th in Georgia. The demographic of the state has changed a lot.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2020-11-09/georgias-political-shift-a-tale-of-urban-and-suburban-change
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,224
    Trumpzilla returns to scare small children

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,995

    Pure Charlton Heston cod-gravitas.

    American reactionaries are often stuck in this strange register of a 1950s biblical epic ; it's the old Hollywood voice of the old testament.
    Eddie Marsan is a bit centrist dad for my taste (though a vg actor), but this was quite good.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,624
    Lol: "...possibly illegal..." I look forward to that one coming to court.
  • On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Surely the Electoral College vote now is the event?

    Or if it goes before Supreme Court and they dismiss it that would be an earlier event?
    Could be. But we don't know and neither do Betfair. Or if they do they're not saying.
    I really don't think you've identified a real problem here. The Electoral College is going to meet on 14 December with a number of electors pledged to Trump and another number to Biden.

    Whether you think that the respective numbers will be as currently projected, or whether you're absolutely crackers and think it'll change, the one thing we can agree on is that that will happen. If the market can settle a little early because Trump concedes and/or exhausts legal routes, then no doubt it will.

    If the US descends into anarchy or aliens invade such that the Electoral College can't meet then at some point Betfair will presumably void the market. I'd say it's pretty bloody unlikely though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 11
    Professor Spector was refreshingly outspoken when I (not me, Freddie Sayers) interviewed him yesterday.

    Had the Government followed data from the ZOE app they would not have gone into a second lockdown, which he believes was unnecessary

    The Government is tilted too much in the direction of caution and has lost a balanced sense of proportion

    He is worried that they will use the new vaccine news as a “carrot” to keep us locked down for the next three months, when he believes it will likely take most of the year to get enough people vaccinated

    He understands people’s concerns about such a new vaccine, and ZOE will be tracking any side effects from vaccinated people via its app

    https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-tim-spector-lockdown-2-was-not-necessary/
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    Apparently it's Cummings
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,201
    edited November 11

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    "Tom Clancy" as a brand is alive and well. New Jack Ryan stuff, new computer games. It is big business.

    Also when this guy was writing Tom Clancy stuff, it was 20 years ago. He seems to have properly gone off the deep end now.
  • Barnesian said:



    Most of that £600 million will be trading in and out, and most of that trading will be automated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,463
    edited November 11

    Cruz abandoned Trump and now focusing on holding the Georgia Senate races and the Senate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,463
    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

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