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UK Punters still not totally convinced that Biden will be President – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    They still slap his name on a lot of games and books as Tom Clancy's X.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    You mean the shocking news that women can hold opinions too?

    That men might listen to their fiancées opinions. What a horror, who would have known that women have thoughts too.

    Whatever next, next you might be outraged to know women can vote.

    I don't know any man in a happy marriage that dismisses his wife's thoughts without giving them any consideration whatsoever.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2020

    Professor Spector was refreshingly outspoken when I (not me, Freddie Sayers) interviewed him yesterday.

    Had the Government followed data from the ZOE app they would not have gone into a second lockdown, which he believes was unnecessary

    The Government is tilted too much in the direction of caution and has lost a balanced sense of proportion

    He is worried that they will use the new vaccine news as a “carrot” to keep us locked down for the next three months, when he believes it will likely take most of the year to get enough people vaccinated

    He understands people’s concerns about such a new vaccine, and ZOE will be tracking any side effects from vaccinated people via its app

    https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-tim-spector-lockdown-2-was-not-necessary/

    SKS on LBC yday when asked something or other about the mooted Lab response to C-19 said "even one death is too many".

    The disease is extremely nasty, may have long term effects that no one is able to analyse yet, and undoubtedly affects those vulnerable groups and affects then very badly, and I know we have several PB-ers who have had direct experience of it and its fatal outcome with their family members.

    But "one death is too many"?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Not sure it's Trump's style to slightly caveat the bullshit just because he knows it's bullshit.

    I don't want to add to the conspiracy theories floating about, but did Trump die of the Coronavirus and get replaced with a clone who is exactly the same in every respect except that he has a slight remenant of an impulse to pull it back a tiny bit when what he's saying is at the extremes of the bullshit scale? I think this may be the glitch in the matrix, guys.
  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1326487632264749056?s=20

    What about to make a protest about climate change?
  • kle4 said:

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    They still slap his name on a lot of games and books as Tom Clancy's X.
    I always just assumed the games were adaptations of his books.

    Though its not unusual they did that with Sid Meier for a while. I recall a game coming out with the title "Sid Meier's [Railroads maybe?]" that was a remake of his original game but he had nothing whatsoever with the remake.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    I'm standing by my bet that 1/9 was value. It's gonna be nowhere close, and even a Biden 400+ EC night it would be a fairly safe bet.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Colour Sergeant Johnson Beharry VC on BBC News.

    An inspiration to our armed services and the wider public.
  • Mr. Thompson, could be wrong but I think they still do that for Civ games.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    edited November 2020
    JACK_W said:

    kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    Unless you have experience in the higher echelons of the GOP in Mississippi on your CV, then I regret to say you are disqualified .... forgeries are however entirely valid.
    He could be an Exalted Cyclops.
  • alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    Apparently it's Cummings
    That makes sense - Cain was a Dom ally after all. Sounds to me as if Carrie has been taunting Dom that she now has Boris's ear while he has been sidelined. Dom felt slighted and went running to Laura.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    Ye gods, that's scary. Wasn't he a leftie in the 60s/70s? Don't think I could watch Midnight Cowboy again after that without throwing up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    They still slap his name on a lot of games and books as Tom Clancy's X.
    I always just assumed the games were adaptations of his books.

    Though its not unusual they did that with Sid Meier for a while. I recall a game coming out with the title "Sid Meier's [Railroads maybe?]" that was a remake of his original game but he had nothing whatsoever with the remake.
    Nah, the games are nothing to do with his books these days. It is just all a branding exercise to mean shootie shootie bang bang stuff e.g. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege is a competitive e-sports game based around attack / defend the flag.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    You mean the shocking news that women can hold opinions too?

    That men might listen to their fiancées opinions. What a horror, who would have known that women have thoughts too.

    Whatever next, next you might be outraged to know women can vote.

    I don't know any man in a happy marriage that dismisses his wife's thoughts without giving them any consideration whatsoever.
    She is not elected. Her qualifications for influencing public policy are unclear. You might as well claim as much right for my tortoise to influence public policy.
  • kle4 said:

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    They still slap his name on a lot of games and books as Tom Clancy's X.
    I always just assumed the games were adaptations of his books.

    Though its not unusual they did that with Sid Meier for a while. I recall a game coming out with the title "Sid Meier's [Railroads maybe?]" that was a remake of his original game but he had nothing whatsoever with the remake.
    You had me worried for a moment there, but Sid Meier is still alive. I know that's not what you meant, but given the context I had to check.
  • School Pox update. My wife's school has 5 members of teaching staff off including her, and 3 of them have now been diagnosed with Covid. Mrs RP reports no symptoms yet and is on day 8 of self isolation, but its worrying. My friend who is retraining as a teacher and has spent all of a fortnight in the classroom has just told me he has the pox. My eldest Son is due back into school on his teaching placement tomorrow.

    Hmmm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    TOPPING said:

    Professor Spector was refreshingly outspoken when I (not me, Freddie Sayers) interviewed him yesterday.

    Had the Government followed data from the ZOE app they would not have gone into a second lockdown, which he believes was unnecessary

    The Government is tilted too much in the direction of caution and has lost a balanced sense of proportion

    He is worried that they will use the new vaccine news as a “carrot” to keep us locked down for the next three months, when he believes it will likely take most of the year to get enough people vaccinated

    He understands people’s concerns about such a new vaccine, and ZOE will be tracking any side effects from vaccinated people via its app

    https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-tim-spector-lockdown-2-was-not-necessary/

    SKS on LBC yday when asked something or other about the mooted Lab response to C-19 said "even one death is too many".

    The disease is extremely nasty, may have long term effects that no one is able to analyse yet, and undoubtedly affects those vulnerable groups and affects then very badly, and I know we have several PB-ers who have had direct experience of it and its fatal outcome with their family members.

    But "one death is too many"?
    Fair point but it's linguistic cliche I wouldn't get too hung up on.
  • kle4 said:

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    They still slap his name on a lot of games and books as Tom Clancy's X.
    I always just assumed the games were adaptations of his books.

    Though its not unusual they did that with Sid Meier for a while. I recall a game coming out with the title "Sid Meier's [Railroads maybe?]" that was a remake of his original game but he had nothing whatsoever with the remake.
    You had me worried for a moment there, but Sid Meier is still alive. I know that's not what you meant, but given the context I had to check.
    Well yes if he had died I'd have been less surprised that he hadn't been involved with the remake.

    It was slapping his name on it when he's alive and well only to then find out he'd not been involved that had surprised me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    I don't want anybody to rise to that one
    They should be discharged from PB immediately.
    Chancre would be a fine thing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    Scott_xP said:
    Losers can still take you down with them.
  • School Pox update. My wife's school has 5 members of teaching staff off including her, and 3 of them have now been diagnosed with Covid. Mrs RP reports no symptoms yet and is on day 8 of self isolation, but its worrying. My friend who is retraining as a teacher and has spent all of a fortnight in the classroom has just told me he has the pox. My eldest Son is due back into school on his teaching placement tomorrow.

    Hmmm.

    We have some staff (including me) working from home on DoH instructions and a trickle of students self-isolating, but nothing major yet.
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    Desperate trolling from you
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Another Pennsylvania batch is out: 2374 in the batch, Biden 92.2%. Wow.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682

    School Pox update. My wife's school has 5 members of teaching staff off including her, and 3 of them have now been diagnosed with Covid. Mrs RP reports no symptoms yet and is on day 8 of self isolation, but its worrying. My friend who is retraining as a teacher and has spent all of a fortnight in the classroom has just told me he has the pox. My eldest Son is due back into school on his teaching placement tomorrow.

    Hmmm.

    In light of the earlier discussion of @TheScreamingEagles unfortunate medical history your "School Pox update" might require some reflection .... :blush:
  • Carnyx said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    You mean the shocking news that women can hold opinions too?

    That men might listen to their fiancées opinions. What a horror, who would have known that women have thoughts too.

    Whatever next, next you might be outraged to know women can vote.

    I don't know any man in a happy marriage that dismisses his wife's thoughts without giving them any consideration whatsoever.
    She is not elected. Her qualifications for influencing public policy are unclear. You might as well claim as much right for my tortoise to influence public policy.
    She may not be elected but her fiancé is the Prime Minister.

    The Prime Minister is entirely entitled to listed to what his fiancée thinks.

    Is your tortoise in the same position? Or do you think men should ignore what their partners think and not take it into consideration?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Stocky said:

    Another Pennsylvania batch is out: 2374 in the batch, Biden 92.2%. Wow.

    Lolz.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    For those who are interested, here is the timetable by which States are to certify their vote tallies for the Presidential election:

    https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020

    I am totally relaxed about the result if and until any one of these states does not certify per the schedule.

    The next key date afterwards, is Wednesday 14 December, and the Electoral College vote. If fully expect Trump and his willing acolytes to play silly buggers up until then, but the best thing everyone can do it ignore him and get on with life.

    Only if that date passes without Biden being duly declared President Elect by the requisite bits of government will I become alarmed.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    School Pox update. My wife's school has 5 members of teaching staff off including her, and 3 of them have now been diagnosed with Covid. Mrs RP reports no symptoms yet and is on day 8 of self isolation, but its worrying. My friend who is retraining as a teacher and has spent all of a fortnight in the classroom has just told me he has the pox. My eldest Son is due back into school on his teaching placement tomorrow.

    Hmmm.

    Wishing the RP crowd well (said in a Celia Johnstone voice).

    My nephew and his entire uni household have been diagnosed. No symptoms as yet, sitting inside having curry and Four Lions evenings.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Professor Spector was refreshingly outspoken when I (not me, Freddie Sayers) interviewed him yesterday.

    Had the Government followed data from the ZOE app they would not have gone into a second lockdown, which he believes was unnecessary

    The Government is tilted too much in the direction of caution and has lost a balanced sense of proportion

    He is worried that they will use the new vaccine news as a “carrot” to keep us locked down for the next three months, when he believes it will likely take most of the year to get enough people vaccinated

    He understands people’s concerns about such a new vaccine, and ZOE will be tracking any side effects from vaccinated people via its app

    https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-tim-spector-lockdown-2-was-not-necessary/

    SKS on LBC yday when asked something or other about the mooted Lab response to C-19 said "even one death is too many".

    The disease is extremely nasty, may have long term effects that no one is able to analyse yet, and undoubtedly affects those vulnerable groups and affects then very badly, and I know we have several PB-ers who have had direct experience of it and its fatal outcome with their family members.

    But "one death is too many"?
    Fair point but it's linguistic cliche I wouldn't get too hung up on.
    What level of deaths is acceptable for there not to be a govt response is imo a fair question.

    I don't think there's a politician alive atm who would give a non-zero answer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    I'm standing by my bet that 1/9 was value. It's gonna be nowhere close, and even a Biden 400+ EC night it would be a fairly safe bet.
    So 306 - 232 to Biden, an exact reverse of 2016.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stocky said:

    Another Pennsylvania batch is out: 2374 in the batch, Biden 92.2%. Wow.

    I vote we swap the remaining batches fo postals from Penn with Alaska.
  • gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
    Good luck getting that past the 1st amendment.
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    More importantly they voted to adopt AV.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    I'm standing by my bet that 1/9 was value. It's gonna be nowhere close, and even a Biden 400+ EC night it would be a fairly safe bet.
    Biden't splitting the Mail vote way more than I expected. I was expecting easily sub 60 and more like 50-55 but he's above that. Still way below what he needed though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
    I don't see with what laws in other countries have to do with whether it is illegal in the USA. Nor even whether it is a good idea or not has anything to do with whether its lawful. Many stupid things are lawful.

    If there was something about those polls that contravened US law fine, I was merely struck by his confident tone.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    More importantly they voted to adopt AV.
    Not a done thing yet. But I project it will pass by 10k votes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    TOPPING said:

    Professor Spector was refreshingly outspoken when I (not me, Freddie Sayers) interviewed him yesterday.

    Had the Government followed data from the ZOE app they would not have gone into a second lockdown, which he believes was unnecessary

    The Government is tilted too much in the direction of caution and has lost a balanced sense of proportion

    He is worried that they will use the new vaccine news as a “carrot” to keep us locked down for the next three months, when he believes it will likely take most of the year to get enough people vaccinated

    He understands people’s concerns about such a new vaccine, and ZOE will be tracking any side effects from vaccinated people via its app

    https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-tim-spector-lockdown-2-was-not-necessary/

    SKS on LBC yday when asked something or other about the mooted Lab response to C-19 said "even one death is too many".

    The disease is extremely nasty, may have long term effects that no one is able to analyse yet, and undoubtedly affects those vulnerable groups and affects then very badly, and I know we have several PB-ers who have had direct experience of it and its fatal outcome with their family members.

    But "one death is too many"?
    Given

    image

    and what is happening in the rest of Europe, with the second wave, in some countries trashing the healthcare system and still growing... It would be hard to say that it is just a matter of "one death too many".

    More like 60,000
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Carnyx said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    You mean the shocking news that women can hold opinions too?

    That men might listen to their fiancées opinions. What a horror, who would have known that women have thoughts too.

    Whatever next, next you might be outraged to know women can vote.

    I don't know any man in a happy marriage that dismisses his wife's thoughts without giving them any consideration whatsoever.
    She is not elected. Her qualifications for influencing public policy are unclear. You might as well claim as much right for my tortoise to influence public policy.
    She may not be elected but her fiancé is the Prime Minister.

    The Prime Minister is entirely entitled to listed to what his fiancée thinks.

    Is your tortoise in the same position? Or do you think men should ignore what their partners think and not take it into consideration?
    My tortoise is in exactly the same legal position as Ms Symonds, apart of course, erm, from not being able to vote, but then he is dead. And he's, or was, male anyway so sex and gender have nothing to do with it.

    I'm deeply disturbed we are now reduced to arguing about which member of the kitchen cabinet is alpha female/male/whatever (pick your own analogy from wolves, hyenas, raptors, etc. to suit). Six weeks before a totally chaotic Brexit. And they can't even decide on how to do the congratulation cards properly, never mind what to put in them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Professor Spector was refreshingly outspoken when I (not me, Freddie Sayers) interviewed him yesterday.

    Had the Government followed data from the ZOE app they would not have gone into a second lockdown, which he believes was unnecessary

    The Government is tilted too much in the direction of caution and has lost a balanced sense of proportion

    He is worried that they will use the new vaccine news as a “carrot” to keep us locked down for the next three months, when he believes it will likely take most of the year to get enough people vaccinated

    He understands people’s concerns about such a new vaccine, and ZOE will be tracking any side effects from vaccinated people via its app

    https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-tim-spector-lockdown-2-was-not-necessary/

    SKS on LBC yday when asked something or other about the mooted Lab response to C-19 said "even one death is too many".

    The disease is extremely nasty, may have long term effects that no one is able to analyse yet, and undoubtedly affects those vulnerable groups and affects then very badly, and I know we have several PB-ers who have had direct experience of it and its fatal outcome with their family members.

    But "one death is too many"?
    Given

    image

    and what is happening in the rest of Europe, with the second wave, in some countries trashing the healthcare system and still growing... It would be hard to say that it is just a matter of "one death too many".

    More like 60,000
    60,000 is certainly too many. How many is an ok number not to have a govt response?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    More importantly they voted to adopt AV.
    PB was holding its collective breath in the vain hope you might have missed that one ....

    Rats ............... :angry:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Carnyx said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    You mean the shocking news that women can hold opinions too?

    That men might listen to their fiancées opinions. What a horror, who would have known that women have thoughts too.

    Whatever next, next you might be outraged to know women can vote.

    I don't know any man in a happy marriage that dismisses his wife's thoughts without giving them any consideration whatsoever.
    She is not elected. Her qualifications for influencing public policy are unclear. You might as well claim as much right for my tortoise to influence public policy.
    She may not be elected but her fiancé is the Prime Minister.

    The Prime Minister is entirely entitled to listed to what his fiancée thinks.

    Is your tortoise in the same position? Or do you think men should ignore what their partners think and not take it into consideration?
    PS The way you word it, Mrs T wasn't allowed to listen to Denis, nor would any future gay PM his partner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    Trump will be furious, the media don't decide who won elections after all.
  • kle4 said:

    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
    I don't see with what laws in other countries have to do with whether it is illegal in the USA. Nor even whether it is a good idea or not has anything to do with whether its lawful. Many stupid things are lawful.

    If there was something about those polls that contravened US law fine, I was merely struck by his confident tone.
    Loser grasping at straws.
    Opinion Polls are legal in the US and some are outliers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
    Well, it would illegal. If they passed one of those..... law thingies?

    But the various states (Republican controlled mostly) in question didn't see fit to attempt such a thing.

    I'm pretty sure that any such law would get struck down under the 1st Amendment, by the way...
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    More importantly they voted to adopt AV.
    That is interesting as Alaska elections do quite often involve more than two serious candidates and get won with well under 50%. Is that at all levels and is it a binding vote or advisory?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    Desperate trolling from you
    Since when was reporting who won a state trolling? I long ago accepted Biden had won the EC overall
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    kle4 said:

    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
    I don't see with what laws in other countries have to do with whether it is illegal in the USA. Nor even whether it is a good idea or not has anything to do with whether its lawful. Many stupid things are lawful.

    If there was something about those polls that contravened US law fine, I was merely struck by his confident tone.
    Should be less confident at the end there.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    I'm standing by my bet that 1/9 was value. It's gonna be nowhere close, and even a Biden 400+ EC night it would be a fairly safe bet.
    Biden't splitting the Mail vote way more than I expected. I was expecting easily sub 60 and more like 50-55 but he's above that. Still way below what he needed though.
    I thought he was in the 50s? Where are you seeing higher numbers?

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    I'm standing by my bet that 1/9 was value. It's gonna be nowhere close, and even a Biden 400+ EC night it would be a fairly safe bet.
    Biden't splitting the Mail vote way more than I expected. I was expecting easily sub 60 and more like 50-55 but he's above that. Still way below what he needed though.
    I thought he was in the 50s? Where are you seeing higher numbers?

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
    That is including the in person early voting as well which Trump is doing better at than expected. But they are almost done with the in person vote and there is just mail left now.
  • HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
  • HYUFD said:
    To me, that just reads "At the last election, many of your fellow voters decided they wanted a sh1t sandwich. You didn't, but here's your sh1t sandwich anyway. Eat it. I said EAT IT, scum!"

    But that's just me. No doubt some people are thrilled with their sh1t sandwiches - and bon appetite to them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    They came from an EU member state?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    But the writing team lives on and continues to publish.
  • HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    Well, if I was Home Secretary, I'd give serious thought to a law barring some of my relatives from coming to the UK, so fair enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Ye gods, that's scary. Wasn't he a leftie in the 60s/70s? Don't think I could watch Midnight Cowboy again after that without throwing up.
    "As I stand here..." - when clearly sitting down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128

    HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    Even were that the case people are not required to hold views that would align to something that benefited their immediate ancestors. Colleague of mine was flabbergasted their parents, who come over from North Africa in the 60s, were in favour of restricting Eastern European migration. It happens.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump projected to have won Alaska, so now just Arizona and Georgia still to have a final projected winner

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1326521985728442371?s=20

    Desperate trolling from you
    Think that is a bit unfair on HYUFD. He does post stuff from both sides of the debate.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    You mean the shocking news that women can hold opinions too?

    That men might listen to their fiancées opinions. What a horror, who would have known that women have thoughts too.

    Whatever next, next you might be outraged to know women can vote.

    I don't know any man in a happy marriage that dismisses his wife's thoughts without giving them any consideration whatsoever.
    She is not elected. Her qualifications for influencing public policy are unclear. You might as well claim as much right for my tortoise to influence public policy.
    She may not be elected but her fiancé is the Prime Minister.

    The Prime Minister is entirely entitled to listed to what his fiancée thinks.

    Is your tortoise in the same position? Or do you think men should ignore what their partners think and not take it into consideration?
    PS The way you word it, Mrs T wasn't allowed to listen to Denis, nor would any future gay PM his partner.
    No because it's not exclusive. That men can listen to their "partner" (which includes gays btw) isn't contradictory with the idea women can listen to theirs too.

    If Jacinda Ahern listens to her husband's advice or Boris Johnson listens to his fiancée then both are entirely acceptable. The buck stops with the politician though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224
    Barnesian said:


    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:



    Forgot to ask you @Barnesian - hopefully you held your nerve and made a profit on the Biden win?

    (Feel a personal interest since you once said you'd "followed" me into doing it.)
    No. I lost my nerve around 2:30am on the night and (after a bottle of red) and traded out for a loss of about £40. Boo.

    I have a bet with Ladbrokes at 6/1 to Trump will win four out of the following: Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and N Carolina. And a similar bet at 6/1 that he'll win five of them. That should put me ahead.

    I'd have been much better off if I'd gone to bed at 10pm and got up at 8am.
    Ah ok. No harm done then. I watched it all night but stayed off tech - since I can't multitask when I want to sink into something - and it worked in my favour because for all my bravado now ("not close" "never in doubt" bla bla) there was a queasy couple of hours after Florida and Ohio when if I had Betfair open I might have done something that would have proved ultimately expensive.
  • RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    They came from an EU member state?
    No, but so many people who want to stop foreigners coming here can't tell the difference anyway. Stopping free movement is definitely about stopping Asian and African economic migrants like her parents, stopping asylum seekers and scroungers and much less about the French and Germans who they don't have a problem with.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    gealbhan said:

    kle4 said:

    He must know its nonsense as he hedged his bets and said possibly illegal rather than illegal.
    Some places ban polls in run up to elections to protect their democracy. If Trump is wholly wrong on this one, why would they go to lengths to do that in other places?
    Well, it would illegal. If they passed one of those..... law thingies?

    But the various states (Republican controlled mostly) in question didn't see fit to attempt such a thing.

    I'm pretty sure that any such law would get struck down under the 1st Amendment, by the way...
    Absolutely it would. The First doesn't just guarantee freedom of speech, it guarantees freedom the press as well.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    Even were that the case people are not required to hold views that would align to something that benefited their immediate ancestors. Colleague of mine was flabbergasted their parents, who come over from North Africa in the 60s, were in favour of restricting Eastern European migration. It happens.
    It's very common indeed.

    I well remember when I had just moved to London my grandmother expressing her concern that it was a very dangerous place due to the unacceptably huge numbers of foreigners there these days.

    She voiced these grave misgivings in the thick Russian accent she never shook off since arriving in the UK in her mid-20s.
  • HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    Nothing odd about it. There have been plenty of examples of politician who benefited from some policy or other pulling the ladder up behind them to stop younger people having the same benefit. Labour did it when they ditched free tertiary education and the Tories' base do not like immigrants, so.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224
    Preparing to win the state.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1326505805424758789?s=20

    It’s funny how a certain sort of person believes it’s always the U.K.’s fault.

    In my experience when negotiations break down both sides are usually to blame
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    edited November 2020

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    They came from an EU member state?
    No, but so many people who want to stop foreigners coming here can't tell the difference anyway. Stopping free movement is definitely about stopping Asian and African economic migrants like her parents, stopping asylum seekers and scroungers and much less about the French and Germans who they don't have a problem with.

    Well the tweet is about ending freedom of movement, so I had assumed your comment was related to that.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Surely the Electoral College vote now is the event?

    Or if it goes before Supreme Court and they dismiss it that would be an earlier event?
    Could be. But we don't know and neither do Betfair. Or if they do they're not saying.
    I really don't think you've identified a real problem here. The Electoral College is going to meet on 14 December with a number of electors pledged to Trump and another number to Biden.

    Whether you think that the respective numbers will be as currently projected, or whether you're absolutely crackers and think it'll change, the one thing we can agree on is that that will happen. If the market can settle a little early because Trump concedes and/or exhausts legal routes, then no doubt it will.

    If the US descends into anarchy or aliens invade such that the Electoral College can't meet then at some point Betfair will presumably void the market. I'd say it's pretty bloody unlikely though.
    Betfair is uncharacteristally clear and precise in regard to the ECV. Faithless electors will be ignored. So I believe once the outcome of the vote is known they will settle. They may not wait until Dec 14th. I think the only markets they may leave open are any where there is a recount - so Georgia and possibly Arizona and of course any totals markets affected by them.

    The main Presidential market would be settled because Nevada and Pennsylvania get Biden comfortably over the line. Any legal challenges to the result in these States would be disregarded as 'later events' by Betfair rules. So they could pay regardless of whether there was any substance in these challenges and any likelihood of them succeeeding.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1326505805424758789?s=20

    It’s funny how a certain sort of person believes it’s always the U.K.’s fault.

    In my experience when negotiations break down both sides are usually to blame
    I think most of us are bewildered, given that we hold all the cards, that we haven't forced the EU to see it our way yet and acquiesce.

    Perhaps we are biding our time.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Trump is like a bad case of the clap.

    I'm idly wondering what a good case of the clap looks like.

    No pics please.
    The worst I have seen was the dose a shipmate got in Bahrain. He had rubbered up but this Uzbek sort's batter was so toxic it rotted the skin of his shaft were the protection of the coxglove ended. Amazing and exactly the type of thing I joined up to see.
    Serves him right for not using the tradesman's entrance as any good salt would.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,601

    HYUFD said:
    Odd that Priti is championing a move that would have barred her parents from coming to the UK.
    Nothing odd about it. There have been plenty of examples of politician who benefited from some policy or other pulling the ladder up behind them to stop younger people having the same benefit. Labour did it when they ditched free tertiary education and the Tories' base do not like immigrants, so.....
    Should all our opinions be crude extrapolations of the circumstances of our birth? The opposite, I would hope.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Incidentally has the PB coup taken place ?!?

    Has @HYUFD taken over and placed OGH in chains in Bedford Prison with @rcs1000 in permanent exile across the pond ??

    I would be happy to serve as Grand Vizier to any regime, with all the trustworthiness that implies.
    You'll be made Viceroy of Wales.
    That's fine, I love the Welsh - they know their place :)
    "It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales?"
    To be fair Richie Rich’s descendants are still worth about £350m and own a chunk of Holland Park & Notting Hill so he did ok out of the deal
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited November 2020
    I'd ease off on that line if I were him. It may encourage investigation into how many false Trump votes were cast.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Charles said:

    Given Trump has to get 103% of all remaining ballots in Pennsylvania....(he's been getting 42%...)

    In other news:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1326505805424758789?s=20

    It’s funny how a certain sort of person believes it’s always the U.K.’s fault.

    In my experience when negotiations break down both sides are usually to blame
    Indeed Coveney's remarks further upthread is begging BOTH sides to show flexibility at the moment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Surely the Electoral College vote now is the event?

    Or if it goes before Supreme Court and they dismiss it that would be an earlier event?
    Could be. But we don't know and neither do Betfair. Or if they do they're not saying.
    I really don't think you've identified a real problem here. The Electoral College is going to meet on 14 December with a number of electors pledged to Trump and another number to Biden.

    Whether you think that the respective numbers will be as currently projected, or whether you're absolutely crackers and think it'll change, the one thing we can agree on is that that will happen. If the market can settle a little early because Trump concedes and/or exhausts legal routes, then no doubt it will.

    If the US descends into anarchy or aliens invade such that the Electoral College can't meet then at some point Betfair will presumably void the market. I'd say it's pretty bloody unlikely though.
    Their market rules say they will settle when somebody passes 270 "projected electoral college votes". That being "a majority". And it's Projected "as a result of the election" not Actual as recorded in the EC meeting. So they must settle before the EC meets. But what specific "event" prior to the EC meeting will trigger this? It's not clear. We don't know. And they're not saying. So that, I submit, is a problem I've identified no?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    To whom has this £20bn contract been awarded ?
    https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738131985

    Abbott Labs plus two diagnostic/reagent distributors
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    I'd ease off on that line if I were him. It may encourage investigation into how many false Trump votes were cast.
    Trump furious as insufficient ballots stuffed at the boxes for him :D
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    Actually to be fair to Carrie, she's a former SPAD/Comms person.

    She used to be Head of Comms for the Tory party as well.

    I think she might talking from a professional POV,
    So?
    She wouldn't be the first partner to be consulted on a potential new employee.

    I mean this sort of thing is unheard of in politics, I mean Nancy Reagan got Don Regan fired as Chief of Staff.
    I'm not sure what relevance that has to the UK. And existence of precedent is not evidence that such a thing should be a non-story.
    Man consults wife/fiancée for advice is a total non-story.

    Do you never discuss anything with your significant other?
    Do you need to repeat my earlier post?

    Only two options here, both of which include Laura Kuenssburg is an absolute joke of a journalist.

    Firstly, Either this story is bollox, Carrie Symonds has no Government role and her view are of no consequence, let alone should be being reported breathlessly as pivotal by the BBC's chief political correspondent. This is just gossip peddling.

    Or this story is accurate, Carrie Symonds now has the power to block key Government appointments, in which case THAT should be the story, not who gets appointed to the role.
    What you said earlier is nonsense.

    Of course Carrie has no Government role, but her views are not of no consequence. As the fiancée of the Prime Minister of course her views are of consequence just as every Prime Minister's partner is always of "consequence".

    So your assumption is wrong. The rest of your post is wrong.
    The question is: who leaked this to Kuenssburg? Assuming it wasn't Boris or Carrie, who in government knows, or was told, that Carrie effectively has a veto on government appointments?
    Cui Bono?

    My guess is the person who has been vetoed - trying to make sure it’s seen as interference so he actually gets the job. Idiot.
  • Well, what's the hurry? After all the EU parliament can hold a special session to ratify it on December 28th and that still gives businesses and the civil service all of three days to get the computer systems written and people trained up. Only sneering Remoaners could possibly think that's not enough.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699

    Well, what's the hurry? After all the EU parliament can hold a special session to ratify it on December 28th and that still gives businesses and the civil service all of three days to get the computer systems written and people trained up. Only sneering Remoaners could possibly think that's not enough.
    The elephant in the room is that the deal will have to include a further transition period.
  • NHS England has suggested that GP practices administering Covid vaccinations will not need access to freezer capacity to store vaccine stock.

    Pulse magazine
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    In a time of crisis, for health and democracy, Trump manages to make it all about him.

    In a time of crisis, for health and trade, BoZo manages to make it all about him...
  • Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    To whom has this £20bn contract been awarded ?
    https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738131985

    Abbott Labs plus two diagnostic/reagent distributors
    That's next year's income tax up to mid February spent.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Well, what's the hurry? After all the EU parliament can hold a special session to ratify it on December 28th and that still gives businesses and the civil service all of three days to get the computer systems written and people trained up. Only sneering Remoaners could possibly think that's not enough.
    But the uk will be shut down for two weeks over Xmas so nothing, even if it could, will be done as people will be too busy spreading the virus amongst their elderly relatives.
  • Well, what's the hurry? After all the EU parliament can hold a special session to ratify it on December 28th and that still gives businesses and the civil service all of three days to get the computer systems written and people trained up. Only sneering Remoaners could possibly think that's not enough.
    The elephant in the room is that the deal will have to include a further transition period.
    And that being the case, a third public information campaign, at the end of the this-isn't-a-transition period.

    Get ready for Brexit.
    This time, we mean it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    On InfoWars, Steve Pieczenik, a former state department assistant secretary, and Tom Clancy co-writer turned QAnon truther, explained how the ‘voter fraud’ had been permitted by an all-seeing Trump because it was in fact an elaborate sting operation against his enemies: “We watermarked every ballot paper with blockchain technology…. We know very well where every one went. All of this was expected.” Or, to quote Q’s unofficial slogan: Trust The Plan.

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-qanon-will-always-be-right/

    That's impressive: Tom Clancy died in 2013...
    They still slap his name on a lot of games and books as Tom Clancy's X.
    I always just assumed the games were adaptations of his books.

    Though its not unusual they did that with Sid Meier for a while. I recall a game coming out with the title "Sid Meier's [Railroads maybe?]" that was a remake of his original game but he had nothing whatsoever with the remake.
    You had me worried for a moment there, but Sid Meier is still alive. I know that's not what you meant, but given the context I had to check.
    Well yes if he had died I'd have been less surprised that he hadn't been involved with the remake.

    It was slapping his name on it when he's alive and well only to then find out he'd not been involved that had surprised me.
    Basically he sold his company, went to set up a new one, they litigated and it ended up with - I think - him owning Sid Meier’s Civilisation while someone else owns Civ V, VI etc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224
    Stocky said:

    Another Pennsylvania batch is out: 2374 in the batch, Biden 92.2%. Wow.

    It's my new favourite place. Now Trump has gone it means my long anticipated 3 month American roadtrip can go ahead and I'll definitely be dropping in there. Plan to meet some of the locals in a typical blue collar bar and chat over a few beers.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020

    NHS England has suggested that GP practices administering Covid vaccinations will not need access to freezer capacity to store vaccine stock.

    Pulse magazine

    Of course. They're going to be told to chuck out all other medicines and suspend all non-Covid medical appointments for several weeks. (I'm not actually joking about the second one of those - that might actually be being planned)
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gaussian said:

    Do Betfair even look at their rules when deciding whether to settle a market, or do they just leave it to punters, i.e. keep it open as long as significant amounts are being matched?

    At some point they will need to settle BIDEN WINNER but having failed to do it when they should have done - on the call of PA when he passed 270 and the networks decreed him President Elect - they now have no distinct and specific "event" to hang the closure on. Also there are big commissionable sums being traded and so they have little incentive to bring the hammer down until they really have to. It's an interesting situation.
    Surely the Electoral College vote now is the event?

    Or if it goes before Supreme Court and they dismiss it that would be an earlier event?
    Could be. But we don't know and neither do Betfair. Or if they do they're not saying.
    I really don't think you've identified a real problem here. The Electoral College is going to meet on 14 December with a number of electors pledged to Trump and another number to Biden.

    Whether you think that the respective numbers will be as currently projected, or whether you're absolutely crackers and think it'll change, the one thing we can agree on is that that will happen. If the market can settle a little early because Trump concedes and/or exhausts legal routes, then no doubt it will.

    If the US descends into anarchy or aliens invade such that the Electoral College can't meet then at some point Betfair will presumably void the market. I'd say it's pretty bloody unlikely though.
    Their market rules say they will settle when somebody passes 270 "projected electoral college votes". That being "a majority". And it's Projected "as a result of the election" not Actual as recorded in the EC meeting. So they must settle before the EC meets. But what specific "event" prior to the EC meeting will trigger this? It's not clear. We don't know. And they're not saying. So that, I submit, is a problem I've identified no?
    I see it pretty much the same way. They've paid out on many States so they are clearly not necessarily waiting for certification, whatever that may involve.

    I think they could pay now but I understand their caution, especially whilst significant amounts are being traded. They should definitely pay out for ant State where counting has stopped, unless a recount is called.

    Maybe they're not sure where there will be recounts? Nevada and Pennsylvania are out of the question, I believe, so they could pay out on those soon and the main market soon after?
  • Scott_xP said:
    Whoever described politics as showbusiness for ugly people wasn't wrong.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    NHS England has suggested that GP practices administering Covid vaccinations will not need access to freezer capacity to store vaccine stock.

    Pulse magazine

    That suggests they are expecting ANOTHER vaccine (AstraZeneca?) which will only need basic refrigeration?
This discussion has been closed.