And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
I make that fifteen vice-Presidents from Truman, of which six became President, giving Harris a naive probability of 2/5 to subsequently become President herself.
That’s before factoring in that she’s a useless politician
Not so useless that she cannot beat Republicans.
Do I detect a sore loser?
No, you detect someone who has had Harris as a Senator for several years and is massively unimpressed. She’s wooden and uninspiring.
Also - traditionally - the job of the Presidential candidate is to win the White House while the VP candidate is focused on supporting senatorial and house candidates. How did she do on that measure?
Edit: FWIW this is the perfect outcome in my view. Trump is gone, and the manner of his going will condemn him to irrelevance. The Republicans have done well enough in the house and senate to rein in the worst excesses of the nuttier democrats
Precisely so.
No, Trump was a symptom, not a cause. The cause has not been addressed, namely a growing proportion of the population is sinking further and further into the mire while more and more wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few.
And this will only get worse. When you have the CEO of a firm like Lyft, 30-s something (I think), living on the West Coast and a multi-billionaire, talking about how the CV pandemic is a great long-term opportunity for the firm because it means that rising unemployment will mean that more people will want to become Lyft drivers which enables Lyft to pay them less, don't expect America to get happier any time soon.
The con is that neither Trump nor the Republicans were ever going to do anything more than protect those already wealthy.
Same as every UK politician since at least 1979 arguably much longer.
TBH now Jezza has gone the leaders of all the main political parties are teammates
Brown increased the top tax rate to 50% and it is still higher now than under Blair
No UK politician since 1979 has had any intention of tackling the issue of the wealth gap getting larger apart from the LOSER in 2017 & 2019.
The British electorate dont see it as a priority
The UK Gini coefficient came down by four points in the last twelve years all by itself.
Fantastic I will ask if my local foodbank wants to organize a Gini is coming down party.
St Marcus of Manchester is wasting is time clearly
Let them drink Gini
Perhaps some Labour councils could introduce a maximum wage
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
I think most of the leftwing populists eg Sanders, Melenchon, Corbyn have now been overtaken by social democrats eg Biden, Macron and Starmer.
Now Syriza have lost power in Greece, Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Arce in Bolivia are probably the only leftwing populists in power now
I make that fifteen vice-Presidents from Truman, of which six became President, giving Harris a naive probability of 2/5 to subsequently become President herself.
That’s before factoring in that she’s a useless politician
Not so useless that she cannot beat Republicans.
Do I detect a sore loser?
No, you detect someone who has had Harris as a Senator for several years and is massively unimpressed. She’s wooden and uninspiring.
Also - traditionally - the job of the Presidential candidate is to win the White House while the VP candidate is focused on supporting senatorial and house candidates. How did she do on that measure?
Edit: FWIW this is the perfect outcome in my view. Trump is gone, and the manner of his going will condemn him to irrelevance. The Republicans have done well enough in the house and senate to rein in the worst excesses of the nuttier democrats
Precisely so.
No, Trump was a symptom, not a cause. The cause has not been addressed, namely a growing proportion of the population is sinking further and further into the mire while more and more wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few.
And this will only get worse. When you have the CEO of a firm like Lyft, 30-s something (I think), living on the West Coast and a multi-billionaire, talking about how the CV pandemic is a great long-term opportunity for the firm because it means that rising unemployment will mean that more people will want to become Lyft drivers which enables Lyft to pay them less, don't expect America to get happier any time soon.
The con is that neither Trump nor the Republicans were ever going to do anything more than protect those already wealthy.
Same as every UK politician since at least 1979 arguably much longer.
TBH now Jezza has gone the leaders of all the main political parties are teammates
Brown increased the top tax rate to 50% and it is still higher now than under Blair
No UK politician since 1979 has had any intention of tackling the issue of the wealth gap getting larger apart from the LOSER in 2017 & 2019.
The British electorate dont see it as a priority
The UK Gini coefficient came down by four points in the last twelve years all by itself.
12 years? So since the economy tanked in the GFC. A great claim to fame...
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
Yes and this election has confirmed that. Who would have thought you would have a modern American Republican President rail against Wall Street and “Big Tech”
Did he lose at golf today too or did he beat some LOSER
Like Biden has
Doesn't he always play with people who deliberately lose to him?
Sounds credible. He seems the sort to really enjoy petty power moves, like telling bad jokes deliberately to people who have to pretend they are funny (though in fairness he is capable of being pretty funny), indulge in the trappings of authority more than actually exercising it, etc.
I like his contrast with the rampant, open constant cheating of Trump, by contrasting with when he played Bill Clinton, which sounds like he'd fudge his score a bit because he was crap at golf, but wouldn't actively try to make you lose like Trump.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
If Democrat candidates for President were winning through the electoral college, but narrowly losing the national popular vote at the same time, we'd hear far less of this argument.
We’ve been struck by the scale of celebrations in cities across the country today. They seem much bigger than in previous election years.
Tbf. The election is usually called in the middle of the night. On a weekday. However, had Trump been any good at politics he could have conceded earlier.
I make that fifteen vice-Presidents from Truman, of which six became President, giving Harris a naive probability of 2/5 to subsequently become President herself.
That’s before factoring in that she’s a useless politician
Not so useless that she cannot beat Republicans.
Do I detect a sore loser?
No, you detect someone who has had Harris as a Senator for several years and is massively unimpressed. She’s wooden and uninspiring.
Also - traditionally - the job of the Presidential candidate is to win the White House while the VP candidate is focused on supporting senatorial and house candidates. How did she do on that measure?
Edit: FWIW this is the perfect outcome in my view. Trump is gone, and the manner of his going will condemn him to irrelevance. The Republicans have done well enough in the house and senate to rein in the worst excesses of the nuttier democrats
Precisely so.
No, Trump was a symptom, not a cause. The cause has not been addressed, namely a growing proportion of the population is sinking further and further into the mire while more and more wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few.
And this will only get worse. When you have the CEO of a firm like Lyft, 30-s something (I think), living on the West Coast and a multi-billionaire, talking about how the CV pandemic is a great long-term opportunity for the firm because it means that rising unemployment will mean that more people will want to become Lyft drivers which enables Lyft to pay them less, don't expect America to get happier any time soon.
The con is that neither Trump nor the Republicans were ever going to do anything more than protect those already wealthy.
Same as every UK politician since at least 1979 arguably much longer.
TBH now Jezza has gone the leaders of all the main political parties are teammates
Brown increased the top tax rate to 50% and it is still higher now than under Blair
No UK politician since 1979 has had any intention of tackling the issue of the wealth gap getting larger apart from the LOSER in 2017 & 2019.
The British electorate dont see it as a priority
The UK Gini coefficient came down by four points in the last twelve years all by itself.
Fantastic I will ask if my local foodbank wants to organize a Gini is coming down party.
St Marcus of Manchester is wasting is time clearly
Let them drink Gini
Perhaps some Labour councils could introduce a maximum wage
Will that tackle inequality? IR35ers excluded presumably?
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Macron will still be re elected in the run off, Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Dutton, closer to Boris than Trump, Italy is probably the only western nation left which might swing to rightwing populism with Salvini but that is touch and go, it is feasible Germany could even see a Green chancellor next year backed by the SPD and Linke as Merkel is not contesting the 2021 elections and the CDU will not touch the AFD.
In the developing world Brazil has Bolosonaro and India still has Modi and of course Russia still has Putin, China has Xi who is not really populist though authoritarian, Netanyahu hands over to Gantz as Israeli PM next year
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
And too many on the left fail to see that as a problem.
Personally, I think he will move ahead given the margin. Part of me wonders whether Trump is getting his own back on Fox News by feeding them a lie he is about to step down
Obviously these are Republicans who do not see any threat from Coronavirus, who in the end voted for Biden to get rid of Trump. So now they are very happy and celebrating. No inconsistency at all.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
If you want to understand why the United States is different, a good starting point is to ponder upon the meaning "United States" - what do those two words mean individually, and what do they mean juxtaposed? Each State getting a say in the electoral process makes sense from this perspective.
Someone in the last thread was decrying the Senate's composition, two from each State, as unfair. Fair or not, it reflects the entire purpose of the Senate! If it were to be more proportionate, you might as well just scrap it and have a unicameral system. A knock-on effect of either abandoning the Senate or reforming so its makeup almost always shadows the House of Representatives, is that change would come much easier. Generally this favours progressives over conservatives, of course, but wouldn't be costless for someone who generally dislikes conservatism, since it means progressive actions can be more easily overturned later, and you might not like the changes a more conservative administration would be empowered to pursue.
The number of mandates per constituency is determined every eight years by the Ministry of Local Government and Regional Development, using a formula established in the Constitution (Article 57), which gives weight both to the population and to the geographic size of each county. The factor of county geographic size in mandate allocation is a historical consideration intended to balance the perceived uneven distribution of power between rural and urban citizens in national politics. The result is that the country’s rural constituencies, which are significantly larger in geographic size than the urban constituencies, are allocated a greater number of seats than would be the case if based strictly on population.
The discrepancy is particularly notable in Finnmark County where there are 7,409 registered voters per mandate, while in Vestfold, there are 18,464 per mandate. The Finnmark quotient is a 50 per cent deviation from the average quotient in the country (14,954 votes per mandate). Four other counties have a deviation of approximately 20 per cent, and a total of seven counties deviate from the norm by more than 15 percent.
While some OSCE/ODIHR EAM interlocutors accepted this structural inequality of the vote based on a constitutional formula, others advocated for a stricter or strict equality of the vote noting that the historical rationale is no longer relevant and that the deviation is an infringement of the right to equal suffrage. The Council of Europe’s Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission) recommends for equal suffrage that “the permissible departure from the norm should not be more than 10 per cent, and should certainly not exceed 15 per cent except in special circumstances (protection of a concentrated minority, sparsely populated administrative entity).”
There is some difference between an extreme of a 2x unequal proportionality and 10x. And even the comparatively low rate in Norway appears to be controversial.
I threw in the Norwegian example because it's a different idea of how to do things. I mean, imagine if America weighted the votes of states not just by population but by area, kinda weird right? But makes sense to in the Norwegian context (not uncontroversially, some there don't like it) because it reflects how urban areas have concentrated economic and political power. If the UK replaced the House of Lords with the House of Nations and Regions or somesuch, it might not be completely barmy for us either...
It's also clear you'd reasonably expect something closer to proportionality in an essentially unitary system (as Norway is) compared to a largely federal one like the US. Whether that justifies the disproportionalities that actually occur is a matter of judgment for Americans (or their states ) to ponder, not for me to decide.
One thing I would suggest though - the way the statistics are presented makes the situation look, in some sense, worse than it is. The large over-representation factors occur by definition in states which are small, therefore tend to affect a relatively small proportion of the population. Perhaps more interesting is who's been "hurt" by others being over-represented, and by what percentage their vote has been effectively under-rated.
We’ve been struck by the scale of celebrations in cities across the country today. They seem much bigger than in previous election years.
Nonsense...all pales into comparison to Obama 2008. I am sure some of that is covid, but still. 250k turned up in person to see Obama give his victory speech.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
Yes and this election has confirmed that. Who would have thought you would have a modern American Republican President rail against Wall Street and “Big Tech”
...and blacks and immigrants and giving all the tax breaks to the top 2% of earners. A real lefty
Boris Johnson will be gone by this time next year, I think.
I may be proven wrong, but I really don't see this. I think rumours about dramatic internal divides always get play in the media, but look how long it took and how hard it was to remove sitting PMs before. May survived a VoNC despite a torrid leadership and only left after the election and several more months of Brexit tensions. Brown made it to an election, Blair served years longer than many expected, Major made it to an election; Thatcher was hated by lots of her cabinet for years before they moved on her.
Times have changed. Everyone knows how quickly polls and moods can change these days and once the zeitgeist is set, it's set.
I've been shocked at how quickly one of my friends (Conservative Party member and big Boris fan last year) has moved to being a fervent opponent.
He now calls Boris absolutely useless. When I said I preferred Hunt last year he said the Remainers had got to me.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
I think most of the leftwing populists eg Sanders, Melenchon, Corbyn have now been overtaken by social democrats eg Biden, Macron and Starmer.
Now Syriza have lost power in Greece, Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Arce in Bolivia are probably the only leftwing populists in power now
Macron will be kept on only because many more people don’t want Le Pen. Biden got in because he wasn’t Trump.
The simple fact is the left and, increasingly, the right do not have a credible solution to the problem that a greater part of the population is falling into a precarious living position. CV is exacerbating that as companies use it as an excuse to delayer workforces and push automation
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
There are other ways of ensuring small states are treated equally without permanently biasing presidential and Senate elections in the direction of conservative small state rural voters.
I could probably just about accept keeping the Senate composition as it is if the Presidential election were switched to be being elected by a plurality of voters.
What justification is there for giving voters in a small state additional weight in Presidential elections? The President ought to e elected on a straight forward one person one vote basis.
Great. Go and start a campaign to change the constitution instead of whining to me
What a silly petulant response.
Not really.
You’ve made a value statement (“ought”) rather than an argument.
The rules are what they are. If you think they should be different get them changed.
Alternatively we could have a debate but just make statements isn’t that interesting
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
Yes and this election has confirmed that. Who would have thought you would have a modern American Republican President rail against Wall Street and “Big Tech”
...and blacks and immigrants and giving all the tax breaks to the top 2% of earners. A real lefty
More Black men and Hispanics voted for him than any other Republican candidate. Guess you are of the “you ain’t black” mindset
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
There are other ways of ensuring small states are treated equally without permanently biasing presidential and Senate elections in the direction of conservative small state rural voters.
I could probably just about accept keeping the Senate composition as it is if the Presidential election were switched to be being elected by a plurality of voters.
What justification is there for giving voters in a small state additional weight in Presidential elections? The President ought to e elected on a straight forward one person one vote basis.
Great. Go and start a campaign to change the constitution instead of whining to me
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
I think most of the leftwing populists eg Sanders, Melenchon, Corbyn have now been overtaken by social democrats eg Biden, Macron and Starmer.
Now Syriza have lost power in Greece, Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Arce in Bolivia are probably the only leftwing populists in power now
Macron will be kept on only because many more people don’t want Le Pen. Biden got in because he wasn’t Trump.
The simple fact is the left and, increasingly, the right do not have a credible solution to the problem that a greater part of the population is falling into a precarious living position. CV is exacerbating that as companies use it as an excuse to delayer workforces and push automation
Agreed though I think ultimately a UBI is inevitable
CNN talking about a generalised amnesty for everyone working in Trump's administration.
I expect even if we don't see that we really will see something that takes the piss.
As I have said Biden is probably enough of an absolute idiot to pardon Trump.
That shows you very little about Biden. He won't pardon Trump.
Joe Biden has a long memory for things. For example, he will never forgive Johnson for the half Kenyan comment about Obama.
Obama is rather more 'half Kenyan' than Biden is 'Irish'.
He is, and it didn't really matter then and it won't really matter now. The issue is that we in the UK like warm words from US Presidents about how great we are and it pisses us off when we don't get them. Trump understood that but did little else. Talk is cheap and real action/help is far harder.
Obama was a wet lettuce on foreign policy and effetely failed to get either the Europeans to pay more for their defence in NATO, or to put up a new strong defence/counterweight to China. He didn't do much to contain or shape the Middle East either storing up problems for later.
And he was hard to talk to and bond with on the actualities. He was called 'Spock' for a reason.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
There are other ways of ensuring small states are treated equally without permanently biasing presidential and Senate elections in the direction of conservative small state rural voters.
I could probably just about accept keeping the Senate composition as it is if the Presidential election were switched to be being elected by a plurality of voters.
What justification is there for giving voters in a small state additional weight in Presidential elections? The President ought to e elected on a straight forward one person one vote basis.
Great. Go and start a campaign to change the constitution instead of whining to me
What a silly petulant response.
Not really.
You’ve made a value statement (“ought”) rather than an argument.
The rules are what they are. If you think they should be different get them changed.
Alternatively we could have a debate but just make statements isn’t that interesting
You’re relentless, aren’t you? When’s the election again? Presumably nothing will change between now and then...
No doubt if it showed the Tories in the lead it would be posted endlessly
Who by?
We have a new President elect today, opinion polls for an election not due for four years are absolutely meaningless.
And I've not posted any at all since the last election so that's consistency.
Under the terms of the FTPA we are now within 3.5 years of Polling Day. As the law stands it is due on May 2nd 2024 - which would imply being as close to the GE as to early May 2017 a month before the 2017 election. Not so long really.
Boris Johnson will be gone by this time next year, I think.
I may be proven wrong, but I really don't see this. I think rumours about dramatic internal divides always get play in the media, but look how long it took and how hard it was to remove sitting PMs before. May survived a VoNC despite a torrid leadership and only left after the election and several more months of Brexit tensions. Brown made it to an election, Blair served years longer than many expected, Major made it to an election; Thatcher was hated by lots of her cabinet for years before they moved on her.
Times have changed. Everyone knows how quickly polls and moods can change these days and once the zeitgeist is set, it's set.
I've been shocked at how quickly one of my friends (Conservative Party member and big Boris fan last year) has moved to being a fervent opponent.
He now calls Boris absolutely useless. When I said I preferred Hunt last year he said the Remainers had got to me.
I tend to think these things come in fits and starts. People and parties can seem to maintain what can appear preposterously good poll ratings in defiance of all logic and events, then either with no notable difference or some event which is really not that different to what has gone on before, suddenly pressure is released and there's a big switch. May maintained a high Tory rating for months despite having no majority in Parliament as she sought to pass Brexit legislation, and more critically when she clearly had no control over her party as well. Then the end came.
Your reputation as PB's best predictor has taken a bit of a hammering. It was looking so promising on Wednesday. Even Trafalgar looked for a while like they were a real polling company not just a mustachioed bloke in a cellar
CNN talking about a generalised amnesty for everyone working in Trump's administration.
I expect even if we don't see that we really will see something that takes the piss.
As I have said Biden is probably enough of an absolute idiot to pardon Trump.
That shows you very little about Biden. He won't pardon Trump.
Joe Biden has a long memory for things. For example, he will never forgive Johnson for the half Kenyan comment about Obama.
Obama is rather more 'half Kenyan' than Biden is 'Irish'.
He is, and it didn't really matter then and it won't really matter now. The issue is that we in the UK like warm words from US Presidents about how great we are and it pisses us off when we don't get them. Trump understood that but did little else. Talk is cheap and real action/help is far harder.
Obama was a wet lettuce on foreign policy and effetely failed to get either the Europeans to pay more for their defence in NATO, or to put up a new strong defence/counterweight to China. He didn't do much to contain or shape the Middle East either storing up problems for later.
And he was hard to talk to and bond with on the actualities. He was called 'Spock' for a reason.
Be careful @Casino_Royale you don’t want to be criticising Roger’s best mate
Everyone knows how quickly [...] moods can change these days
Yes. Witnessing you oscillate between angry the one minute, furious the next, and then back again, is quite hypnotic. I'm surprised you even came back today after the way you disgraced yourself earlier. Still, we all forgive you. You were just emotional after your boy took one hell of a beating.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
Yes and this election has confirmed that. Who would have thought you would have a modern American Republican President rail against Wall Street and “Big Tech”
...and blacks and immigrants and giving all the tax breaks to the top 2% of earners. A real lefty
That's the thing (sets broken record mode to "on"). Trump campaigned as a populist but governed as a swamp dweller, as he might have put it.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
Yes - people.
Sure.
But I’m really objecting to the use of value judgments. It’s sloppy thinking.
It would be unfair if different states were treated differently. It would be unfair if certain racial groups only got a fraction of the vote of a white male.
It’s not unfair if the system is based around states but you think it should be based around people instead. It could be wrong or inappropriate or all sorts of things. But it’s not unfair
What a kn0b. Because she voted for Trump, she has no right to expect her kids not to hear foul language.
I think the bigger issue is she was a local republican policitian, but this was not identified in the story.
Very true. But I have to say, neither the signs saying F**K TRUMP (without the asterisks!) being shown uncensored on the BBC, nor angry Trump supporters walking around with guns, make me feel terribly optimistic about unity, peace, the brotherhood of man and sisterhood of woman, and the general rebuilding of interpersonal and interdemographic bridges...
CNN talking about a generalised amnesty for everyone working in Trump's administration.
I expect even if we don't see that we really will see something that takes the piss.
As I have said Biden is probably enough of an absolute idiot to pardon Trump.
That shows you very little about Biden. He won't pardon Trump.
Joe Biden has a long memory for things. For example, he will never forgive Johnson for the half Kenyan comment about Obama.
Obama is rather more 'half Kenyan' than Biden is 'Irish'.
He is, and it didn't really matter then and it won't really matter now. The issue is that we in the UK like warm words from US Presidents about how great we are and it pisses us off when we don't get them. Trump understood that but did little else. Talk is cheap and real action/help is far harder.
Obama was a wet lettuce on foreign policy and effetely failed to get either the Europeans to pay more for their defence in NATO, or to put up a new strong defence/counterweight to China. He didn't do much to contain or shape the Middle East either storing up problems for later.
And he was hard to talk to and bond with on the actualities. He was called 'Spock' for a reason.
You’re relentless, aren’t you? When’s the election again? Presumably nothing will change between now and then...
No doubt if it showed the Tories in the lead it would be posted endlessly
Who by?
We have a new President elect today, opinion polls for an election not due for four years are absolutely meaningless.
And I've not posted any at all since the last election so that's consistency.
Under the terms of the FTPA we are now within 3.5 years of Polling Day. As the law stands it is due on May 2nd 2024 - which would imply being as close to the GE as to early May 2017 a month before the 2017 election. Not so long really.
If you define it like that, every election is 'not so long' til the next one.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
Yes - people.
It would be unfair if different states were treated differently. It would be unfair if certain racial groups only got a fraction of the vote of a white male.
Though as the States with 3 EV are disproportionately white compared to the US Average, it does mean that certain racial groups do only get a fraction of a white vote.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
I think most of the leftwing populists eg Sanders, Melenchon, Corbyn have now been overtaken by social democrats eg Biden, Macron and Starmer.
Now Syriza have lost power in Greece, Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Arce in Bolivia are probably the only leftwing populists in power now
Macron will be kept on only because many more people don’t want Le Pen. Biden got in because he wasn’t Trump.
The simple fact is the left and, increasingly, the right do not have a credible solution to the problem that a greater part of the population is falling into a precarious living position. CV is exacerbating that as companies use it as an excuse to delayer workforces and push automation
Agreed though I think ultimately a UBI is inevitable
Yes, and essentially you could argue the furlough scheme is a “trial run”.
There is the obvious problem of debt but this may be one of those “if you owe the bank a hundred pounds it’s your problem but...”
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
For once I agree with you.
When it comes down to it people care more about their communities and their societies than they do money.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
Yes - people.
Sure.
But I’m really objecting to the use of value judgments. It’s sloppy thinking.
It would be unfair if different states were treated differently. It would be unfair if certain racial groups only got a fraction of the vote of a white male.
It’s not unfair if the system is based around states but you think it should be based around people instead. It could be wrong or inappropriate or all sorts of things. But it’s not unfair
It would be interesting to see the weighted average electoral votes per race and ethnicity, given that California and Texas have very different ethnic mixes to North Dakota and Rhode Island.
Separately I don’t think you can just state the EC is “unfair” because it overweighted small states.
It is absolutely fair to states because it treats them all equally. You just think that another metric is more appropriate
If Democrat candidates for President were winning through the electoral college, but narrowly losing the national popular vote at the same time, we'd hear far less of this argument.
What a kn0b. Because she voted for Trump, she has no right to expect her kids not to hear foul language.
I think the bigger issue is she was a local republican policitian, but this was not identified in the story.
Very true. But I have to say, neither the signs saying F**K TRUMP (without the asterisks!) being shown uncensored on the BBC, nor angry Trump supporters walking around with guns, make me feel terribly optimistic about unity, peace, the brotherhood of man and sisterhood of woman, and the general rebuilding of interpersonal and interdemographic bridges...
A small price is to be paid for the governance of America by a minority of pro-neo-Nazis and pro-church-burners. Fortunately, F**K TRUMP expresses dislike at one powerful person, whereas people wandering around with guns are expressing violence toward ordinary people who disagree with them. But such false equivalences are an old tactic that found its peerless expression in the backing for the neo-Nazis and the church burners.
What a kn0b. Because she voted for Trump, she has no right to expect her kids not to hear foul language.
I think the bigger issue is she was a local republican policitian, but this was not identified in the story.
Very true. But I have to say, neither the signs saying F**K TRUMP (without the asterisks!) being shown uncensored on the BBC, nor angry Trump supporters walking around with guns, make me feel terribly optimistic about unity, peace, the brotherhood of man and sisterhood of woman, and the general rebuilding of interpersonal and interdemographic bridges...
One of the oddest scenes of the last few days has been Trump supporters dancing to "Killing in the Name" at a rally, seemingly oblivious to the lyrics condemning police violence.
Everyone knows how quickly [...] moods can change these days
Yes. Witnessing you oscillate between angry the one minute, furious the next, and then back again, is quite hypnotic. I'm surprised you even came back today after the way you disgraced yourself earlier. Still, we all forgive you. You were just emotional after your boy took one hell of a beating.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
I think most of the leftwing populists eg Sanders, Melenchon, Corbyn have now been overtaken by social democrats eg Biden, Macron and Starmer.
Now Syriza have lost power in Greece, Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Arce in Bolivia are probably the only leftwing populists in power now
Macron will be kept on only because many more people don’t want Le Pen. Biden got in because he wasn’t Trump.
The simple fact is the left and, increasingly, the right do not have a credible solution to the problem that a greater part of the population is falling into a precarious living position. CV is exacerbating that as companies use it as an excuse to delayer workforces and push automation
Agreed though I think ultimately a UBI is inevitable
Yes, and essentially you could argue the furlough scheme is a “trial run”.
There is the obvious problem of debt but this may be one of those “if you owe the bank a hundred pounds it’s your problem but...”
Personally, I think it is more a question of, at what point in economic progress does it become affordable.
The NHS was far from unique - it was that at that point in the economic history of advanced Western nations, universal healthcare could be afforded. Bit like a generation or 2 earlier, old age pensions came in.
I make that fifteen vice-Presidents from Truman, of which six became President, giving Harris a naive probability of 2/5 to subsequently become President herself.
That’s before factoring in that she’s a useless politician
Not so useless that she cannot beat Republicans.
Do I detect a sore loser?
No, you detect someone who has had Harris as a Senator for several years and is massively unimpressed. She’s wooden and uninspiring.
Also - traditionally - the job of the Presidential candidate is to win the White House while the VP candidate is focused on supporting senatorial and house candidates. How did she do on that measure?
Edit: FWIW this is the perfect outcome in my view. Trump is gone, and the manner of his going will condemn him to irrelevance. The Republicans have done well enough in the house and senate to rein in the worst excesses of the nuttier democrats
Precisely so.
No, Trump was a symptom, not a cause. The cause has not been addressed, namely a growing proportion of the population is sinking further and further into the mire while more and more wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few.
And this will only get worse. When you have the CEO of a firm like Lyft, 30-s something (I think), living on the West Coast and a multi-billionaire, talking about how the CV pandemic is a great long-term opportunity for the firm because it means that rising unemployment will mean that more people will want to become Lyft drivers which enables Lyft to pay them less, don't expect America to get happier any time soon.
The con is that neither Trump nor the Republicans were ever going to do anything more than protect those already wealthy.
Same as every UK politician since at least 1979 arguably much longer.
TBH now Jezza has gone the leaders of all the main political parties are teammates
Brown increased the top tax rate to 50% and it is still higher now than under Blair
No UK politician since 1979 has had any intention of tackling the issue of the wealth gap getting larger apart from the LOSER in 2017 & 2019.
The British electorate dont see it as a priority
The UK Gini coefficient came down by four points in the last twelve years all by itself.
It is remarkable what an achievement that is yet the left don't seem happy. Funny that.
You’re relentless, aren’t you? When’s the election again? Presumably nothing will change between now and then...
No doubt if it showed the Tories in the lead it would be posted endlessly
Who by?
We have a new President elect today, opinion polls for an election not due for four years are absolutely meaningless.
And I've not posted any at all since the last election so that's consistency.
Under the terms of the FTPA we are now within 3.5 years of Polling Day. As the law stands it is due on May 2nd 2024 - which would imply being as close to the GE as to early May 2017 a month before the 2017 election. Not so long really.
If you define it like that, every election is 'not so long' til the next one.
Well under the terms of the FTPA this would be a Parliament of less than 4 years and 5 months anyway - and,of course , we are now 11 months into that term.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
Yes and this election has confirmed that. Who would have thought you would have a modern American Republican President rail against Wall Street and “Big Tech”
...and blacks and immigrants and giving all the tax breaks to the top 2% of earners. A real lefty
More Black men and Hispanics voted for him than any other Republican candidate. Guess you are of the “you ain’t black” mindset
Similar mindset to those in the UK who argue Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May, Priti Patel and Kemi Badenoch aren't really women.
Boris Johnson will be gone by this time next year, I think.
I may be proven wrong, but I really don't see this. I think rumours about dramatic internal divides always get play in the media, but look how long it took and how hard it was to remove sitting PMs before. May survived a VoNC despite a torrid leadership and only left after the election and several more months of Brexit tensions. Brown made it to an election, Blair served years longer than many expected, Major made it to an election; Thatcher was hated by lots of her cabinet for years before they moved on her.
Times have changed. Everyone knows how quickly polls and moods can change these days and once the zeitgeist is set, it's set.
I've been shocked at how quickly one of my friends (Conservative Party member and big Boris fan last year) has moved to being a fervent opponent.
He now calls Boris absolutely useless. When I said I preferred Hunt last year he said the Remainers had got to me.
While I agree with @Quincel that it is hard to see Boris voted out, I do expect him to resign next year. It probably does not help a man who wants to be loved that Gove & Cummings are creating enemies for him. He does not seem to be enjoying the job, and there is no reason to expect the job to become easier. Brexit and Covid will still be issues next year, and probably bigger ones.
In addition, Boris does not seem (to my medically unqualified eye) to have fully recovered from Covid-19. He seems to tire easily. Boris used to be bright and funny but now often seems to misunderstand even straightforward questions. At times his breathing looks laboured.
And then there is the money. Like his hero Churchill, Boris has an expensive lifestyle but an income limited by office. He must occasionally cast a wistful eye at Theresa May's appearance fees.
So while the job is his as long as he wants it, Boris might not want it much longer.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Yet Switzerland, which has free trade agreements with the EU and China, has a stonking great physical goods trade surplus, and record manufacturing employment.
As I have said Biden is probably enough of an absolute idiot to pardon Trump. But the pardoning if Nixon was a mistake of gigantic proportion.
It set the precedent that if you were in power you could do any crime you wanted and not get prosecuted.
If the Rule of Law is to mean anything then the people at the top must have it applied to them as well.
I think there’s a balance
It shouldn’t be a vindictive witch-hunt- he should be treated like any other citizen. If he’s made into a martyr among a % of the population it would be a serious error
@EPG A small price is to be paid for the governance of America by a minority of pro-neo-Nazis and pro-church-burners. Fortunately, F**K TRUMP expresses dislike at one powerful person, whereas people wandering around with guns are expressing violence toward ordinary people who disagree with them. But such false equivalences are an old tactic that found its peerless expression in the backing for the neo-Nazis and the church burners.
Dixiedean:
Indeed. And what about the "Trump 2020 F**k your feelings" merchandise?
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave at the notion that free trade is a left wing ideal.
Right v Left is increasingly a cultural thing rather than an economic thing.
Yes and this election has confirmed that. Who would have thought you would have a modern American Republican President rail against Wall Street and “Big Tech”
...and blacks and immigrants and giving all the tax breaks to the top 2% of earners. A real lefty
More Black men and Hispanics voted for him than any other Republican candidate. Guess you are of the “you ain’t black” mindset
Small minorities of both. There are several hispanics and blacks in the top earning brackets. People have different reasons for voting. Some just self interest some see a wider picture
There is an interesting argument that Biden’s victory has shown the value of TV advertising
There is but history is written by the winners. We see this after every election, here and in America. This thing that the winning side did was the key factor, but the particular thing changes each time: advertising, GOTV, social media, microtargeting; you name it.
» show previous quotes I am perfectly happy for Birmingham to be independent if it so wishes , my only beef is the English parliament preventing Scotland having democracy. I have nothing against any English person other than if they are preventing Scotland having democracy.
Last say the Westminster parliament on the matter was to authorise the Scottish referendum... That is utter bollox , a majority Scottish wish for a referendum has been denied 3 x by English government. No democracy in the UK , banana republic run by crooks.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Macron will still be re elected in the run off, Morrison was actually the more moderate candidate to succeed Turnbull over Dutton, closer to Boris than Trump, Italy is probably the only western nation left which might swing to rightwing populism with Salvini but that is touch and go, it is feasible Germany could even see a Green chancellor next year backed by the SPD and Linke as Merkel is not contesting the 2021 elections and the CDU will not touch the AFD.
In the developing world Brazil has Bolosonaro and India still has Modi and of course Russia still has Putin, China has Xi who is not really populist though authoritarian, Netanyahu hands over to Gantz as Israeli PM next year
Macron is the one centrist leader that gets it.
Smarter than all the rest.
Given the comments from some of my lefty French friends - they are saying he is going full Le Pen - it would be interesting to see how his coalition holds up.
Will he lose or win more from his stance.
Which I approve of, by the way.
It is not enough to say "I believe in liberal democracy. But you can do whatever you feel like"
Everyone knows how quickly [...] moods can change these days
Yes. Witnessing you oscillate between angry the one minute, furious the next, and then back again, is quite hypnotic. I'm surprised you even came back today after the way you disgraced yourself earlier. Still, we all forgive you. You were just emotional after your boy took one hell of a beating.
Tell you what: when you've been on this site for longer than 8 weeks, written at least some posts of value, and established a reputation for yourself as someone worth listening to, then I might start to consider taking on board what you have to say.
Until then I'll put you down as a pointless weevil.
CNN talking about a generalised amnesty for everyone working in Trump's administration.
I expect even if we don't see that we really will see something that takes the piss.
As I have said Biden is probably enough of an absolute idiot to pardon Trump.
That shows you very little about Biden. He won't pardon Trump.
Joe Biden has a long memory for things. For example, he will never forgive Johnson for the half Kenyan comment about Obama.
Obama is rather more 'half Kenyan' than Biden is 'Irish'.
He is, and it didn't really matter then and it won't really matter now. The issue is that we in the UK like warm words from US Presidents about how great we are and it pisses us off when we don't get them. Trump understood that but did little else. Talk is cheap and real action/help is far harder.
Obama was a wet lettuce on foreign policy and effetely failed to get either the Europeans to pay more for their defence in NATO, or to put up a new strong defence/counterweight to China. He didn't do much to contain or shape the Middle East either storing up problems for later.
And he was hard to talk to and bond with on the actualities. He was called 'Spock' for a reason.
Be careful @Casino_Royale you don’t want to be criticising Roger’s best mate
Everyone knows how quickly [...] moods can change these days
Yes. Witnessing you oscillate between angry the one minute, furious the next, and then back again, is quite hypnotic. I'm surprised you even came back today after the way you disgraced yourself earlier. Still, we all forgive you. You were just emotional after your boy took one hell of a beating.
Tell you what: when you've been on this site for longer than 8 weeks, written at least some posts of value, and established a reputation for yourself as someone worth listening to, then I might start to consider taking on board what you have to say.
Until then I'll put you down as a pointless weevil.
CNN talking about a generalised amnesty for everyone working in Trump's administration.
I expect even if we don't see that we really will see something that takes the piss.
As I have said Biden is probably enough of an absolute idiot to pardon Trump.
That shows you very little about Biden. He won't pardon Trump.
Joe Biden has a long memory for things. For example, he will never forgive Johnson for the half Kenyan comment about Obama.
Obama is rather more 'half Kenyan' than Biden is 'Irish'.
He is, and it didn't really matter then and it won't really matter now. The issue is that we in the UK like warm words from US Presidents about how great we are and it pisses us off when we don't get them. Trump understood that but did little else. Talk is cheap and real action/help is far harder.
Obama was a wet lettuce on foreign policy and effetely failed to get either the Europeans to pay more for their defence in NATO, or to put up a new strong defence/counterweight to China. He didn't do much to contain or shape the Middle East either storing up problems for later.
And he was hard to talk to and bond with on the actualities. He was called 'Spock' for a reason.
Everyone knows how quickly [...] moods can change these days
Yes. Witnessing you oscillate between angry the one minute, furious the next, and then back again, is quite hypnotic. I'm surprised you even came back today after the way you disgraced yourself earlier. Still, we all forgive you. You were just emotional after your boy took one hell of a beating.
Tell you what: when you've been on this site for longer than 8 weeks, written at least some posts of value, and established a reputation for yourself as someone worth listening to, then I might start to consider taking on board what you have to say.
Until then I'll put you down as a pointless weevil.
And in other news Labour +4 (42 vs 38) in tonight's Opinium
The end of right wing populism is sweeping the globe. I expect Brexit to be cancelled before the end of the year,.
Is it though...Eastern Europe, is still very popular e.g. Poland re-elected one. Australia voted for a very right wing government. Macron is very unpopular on France, with Le Pen waiting in the wings.
Right wing populism is still very much there because a large part of the population feels as though it has been sh*t upon from a large height. Anyone who thinks it is going away is very much mistaken.
Might shift to left wing Populism though. Its one hell of a recession coming.
Very much so although a left wing populist would need to reflect on that many people are essentially losing because their jobs have been shifted abroad due to free trade.
Yet Switzerland, which has free trade agreements with the EU and China, has a stonking great physical goods trade surplus, and record manufacturing employment.
It's almost like these things are quite complex.
Switzerland, as a country, is very much Sui generis at all levels (and in its history). There are goods whose value is highly attached to the country (e.g. watches). There is also not the insignificant issue that any Swiss company that tried to outsource its employment to a cheaper labour country and sack its domestic workforce would soon get its ass handed on a plate by both society and the government.
Comments
We have a new President elect today, opinion polls for an election not due for four years are absolutely meaningless.
And I've not posted any at all since the last election so that's consistency.
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1324438417346859008
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1324438565875568640
Now Syriza have lost power in Greece, Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Arce in Bolivia are probably the only leftwing populists in power now
https://www.ayrshiredailynews.co.uk/post/south-ayrshire-golf-club-owner-loses-2020-presidential-election
However, had Trump been any good at politics he could have conceded earlier.
Interesting that the Washington Examiner thinks Trump's camp are going to proceed with the Wisconsin recount.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-campaign-moves-to-trigger-wisconsin-recount
Smarter than all the rest.
Farage is an idiot and a spent force.
It's also clear you'd reasonably expect something closer to proportionality in an essentially unitary system (as Norway is) compared to a largely federal one like the US. Whether that justifies the disproportionalities that actually occur is a matter of judgment for Americans (or their states
One thing I would suggest though - the way the statistics are presented makes the situation look, in some sense, worse than it is. The large over-representation factors occur by definition in states which are small, therefore tend to affect a relatively small proportion of the population. Perhaps more interesting is who's been "hurt" by others being over-represented, and by what percentage their vote has been effectively under-rated.
I've been shocked at how quickly one of my friends (Conservative Party member and big Boris fan last year) has moved to being a fervent opponent.
He now calls Boris absolutely useless. When I said I preferred Hunt last year he said the Remainers had got to me.
The simple fact is the left and, increasingly, the right do not have a credible solution to the problem that a greater part of the population is falling into a precarious living position. CV is exacerbating that as companies use it as an excuse to delayer workforces and push automation
You’ve made a value statement (“ought”) rather than an argument.
The rules are what they are. If you think they should be different get them changed.
Alternatively we could have a debate but just make statements isn’t that interesting
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Obama was a wet lettuce on foreign policy and effetely failed to get either the Europeans to pay more for their defence in NATO, or to put up a new strong defence/counterweight to China. He didn't do much to contain or shape the Middle East either storing up problems for later.
And he was hard to talk to and bond with on the actualities. He was called 'Spock' for a reason.
I tend to think these things come in fits and starts. People and parties can seem to maintain what can appear preposterously good poll ratings in defiance of all logic and events, then either with no notable difference or some event which is really not that different to what has gone on before, suddenly pressure is released and there's a big switch. May maintained a high Tory rating for months despite having no majority in Parliament as she sought to pass Brexit legislation, and more critically when she clearly had no control over her party as well. Then the end came.
Still, we all forgive you. You were just emotional after your boy took one hell of a beating.
https://twitter.com/PatrickNova6/status/1325204814268076032
But I’m really objecting to the use of value judgments. It’s sloppy thinking.
It would be unfair if different states were treated differently. It would be unfair if certain racial groups only got a fraction of the vote of a white male.
It’s not unfair if the system is based around states but you think it should be based around people instead. It could be wrong or inappropriate or all sorts of things. But it’s not unfair
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1325128410566258688?s=19
There is the obvious problem of debt but this may be one of those “if you owe the bank a hundred pounds it’s your problem but...”
When it comes down to it people care more about their communities and their societies than they do money.
https://twitter.com/Manny_Alicandro/status/1324873177416273921?s=19
The NHS was far from unique - it was that at that point in the economic history of advanced Western nations, universal healthcare could be afforded. Bit like a generation or 2 earlier, old age pensions came in.
In addition, Boris does not seem (to my medically unqualified eye) to have fully recovered from Covid-19. He seems to tire easily. Boris used to be bright and funny but now often seems to misunderstand even straightforward questions. At times his breathing looks laboured.
And then there is the money. Like his hero Churchill, Boris has an expensive lifestyle but an income limited by office. He must occasionally cast a wistful eye at Theresa May's appearance fees.
So while the job is his as long as he wants it, Boris might not want it much longer.
It's almost like these things are quite complex.
It shouldn’t be a vindictive witch-hunt- he should be treated like any other citizen. If he’s made into a martyr among a % of the population it would be a serious error
A small price is to be paid for the governance of America by a minority of pro-neo-Nazis and pro-church-burners. Fortunately, F**K TRUMP expresses dislike at one powerful person, whereas people wandering around with guns are expressing violence toward ordinary people who disagree with them. But such false equivalences are an old tactic that found its peerless expression in the backing for the neo-Nazis and the church burners.
Dixiedean:
Indeed. And what about the "Trump 2020 F**k your feelings" merchandise?
I think people are sleeping on how much of an advantage the Dems are going to have in the run offs.
Will he lose or win more from his stance.
Which I approve of, by the way.
It is not enough to say "I believe in liberal democracy. But you can do whatever you feel like"
Until then I'll put you down as a pointless weevil.
In two years, with a voting rights act passed to stop his shit, she is going to bury Kemp for Governor.