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CNN calls it for Biden – politicalbetting.com

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  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    BBC has just called it as well, the big three networks in the US must have as well.

    Settle up Betfair.

    I'm resigned to them not paying out until December, and maybe even until January 20th.
    Their rules state:


    'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution'

    That seems clear enough to ,me, Biden now has a majority of 'projected electoral college votes' and we don't have to wait 'til the college meets on 14th of December.
    Some of us still scarred by their behaviour over the Theresa May exit markets.
    From a betting perspective, if states are in recount territory, are they paid out? Both Wisconsin and Georgia are.
  • https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1325118214448230406

    Johnson rapidly trying to cultivate a relationship now the Donald gamble has failed.

    Now for the Brexit capitulation.

    Number 10 is professional and diplomatic. Boris will congratulate Biden in person on the phone before he speaks to the public.

    Biden won't be taking a call from Keir today so he can just Tweet away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Then he can stop whining about how the media called things. Dick.

    Gods I hope he doesn't succeed in a major legal case, that would really toss fire on the bonfire.
  • AbeAbe Posts: 2
    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    BBC has just called it as well, the big three networks in the US must have as well.

    Settle up Betfair.

    I'm resigned to them not paying out until December, and maybe even until January 20th.
    Their rules state:


    'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution'

    That seems clear enough to ,me, Biden now has a majority of 'projected electoral college votes' and we don't have to wait 'til the college meets on 14th of December.
    Betfair have clarified:

    https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-betfair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html

    "We will only settle the markets when there is certainty around which candidate has the most projected Electoral College votes. Before settling the markets, we must therefore wait for clarity around ongoing vote counts, recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results."
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    Shame Biden didn't get the Senate as well, but you cannot have everything. It will be fascinating to see what he comes up with in his first days in office next year, there's a lot of quick wins he can enforce.

    THERE'S ALWAYS ALASKA!

    They count mail ballots on Tuesday.

    More seriously there is the double run off in Georgia.

    Where both Republican candidates sold stocks in response to a cornavirus briefing before then telling their constituents there was nothing to worry about.

    Georgia is just starting their 3rd wave


    Deaths will be peaking again come election day.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bozo is now yesterday’s clown

    He gambled on a US trade deal, hence his actions to undermine the GFA. That's been a very poor move.

    So now it's capitulation and the fracturing of the Tory base, I will grab the popcorn.
    I wonder if anyone mentioned to our clown-in-chief that Biden was a effectively an Irish Catholic? Perhaps Johnson didn't bother to read the memo.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bozo is now yesterday’s clown

    After 4 years of being kicked from pillar to post by the right a change is coming.
    Happy days.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Is it correct that it's 52.5% for Biden 45.4% for Trump as it says on the Fox site? If so the pollsters were spot on.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    It's amazing how everybody seems to think that their particular views have been vindicated. You can't all be right.

    The one thing I take away from it all is that a hell of a lot of people still voted for Trump despite him being by far the worst President in living memory, and I really fear for what a smarter Trump-like President might do to America.
  • https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1325118214448230406

    Johnson rapidly trying to cultivate a relationship now the Donald gamble has failed.

    Now for the Brexit capitulation.

    He and Joe Biden have never met.

    And, you're right, that probably ends the hard Brexit. In fact, I'm sure it does.
    ...and they wont be meeting for some time. Nicely played Johnson.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020
    Roger said:

    Is it correct that it's 52.5% for Biden 45.4% for Trump as it says on the Fox site? If so the pollsters were spot on.

    Far from it...lots of pollsters had crazy leads for Biden. Total landslide stuff. And were miles off on lots of states.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bozo is now yesterday’s clown

    He gambled on a US trade deal, hence his actions to undermine the GFA. That's been a very poor move.

    So now it's capitulation and the fracturing of the Tory base, I will grab the popcorn.
    I wonder if anyone mentioned to our clown-in-chief that Biden was a effectively an Irish Catholic? Perhaps Johnson didn't bother to read the memo.
    Nah he was too busy morphing into Donald's image.

    Johnson isn't Trump, in fact he's worse, no principles and no values, he goes where the polls tell him to go.

    London wanted a liberal, so he was one. Then the world wanted Trump, so he copied him. Unfortunately although he may now morph into super climate change Johnson his previous disgraceful bill that undermines the GFA will not be forgotten.

    This is the end for Johnson.
  • I so wish there was a webcam streaming live from Trump's TV room.

    Remember the Hilary documentary series on Sky One? They followed her round during the campaign. Pleasepleasepleaseplease have similar for the Donald this time.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kle4 said:

    Shame Biden didn't get the Senate as well, but you cannot have everything. It will be fascinating to see what he comes up with in his first days in office next year, there's a lot of quick wins he can enforce.

    Er, that has yet to be decided. You may be right but we don't know that until after the runoffs January 5th.
  • IanB2 said:

    Bozo is now yesterday’s clown

    He gambled on a US trade deal, hence his actions to undermine the GFA. That's been a very poor move.

    So now it's capitulation and the fracturing of the Tory base, I will grab the popcorn.
    Yes, may be the beginning of the end for Johnson and unity in the Tory party.
    Excellent.
  • https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1325118214448230406

    Johnson rapidly trying to cultivate a relationship now the Donald gamble has failed.

    Now for the Brexit capitulation.

    Number 10 is professional and diplomatic. Boris will congratulate Biden in person on the phone before he speaks to the public.

    Biden won't be taking a call from Keir today so he can just Tweet away.
    You must have struggled to type this out without laughing, congratulations to you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ping said:

    Farage £10k poorer

    Unless he laid it off at 1/4
  • I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
  • HYUFD said:
    Dear God, it reads like a flat earth forum post
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Lol - Guiliani press conference on Sky talking gibberish. Seems to think there is something different between mail in and absentee ballots.
  • Rudy is going barmy. He needs Borat's daughter to help him relax....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Date for your diary: GA runoffs Jan 5th

    (Results by Jan 10th with any luck....)
  • Populism can and will be defeated in the end, we just have to Biden our time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    Yay, the era of Stop Hillary Clinton At All Costs is over.......
  • alex_ said:

    Lol - Guiliani press conference on Sky talking gibberish. Seems to think there is something different between mail in and absentee ballots.

    Is this the press conference from the landscaping place?
  • https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1325118214448230406

    Johnson rapidly trying to cultivate a relationship now the Donald gamble has failed.

    Now for the Brexit capitulation.

    Number 10 is professional and diplomatic. Boris will congratulate Biden in person on the phone before he speaks to the public.

    Biden won't be taking a call from Keir today so he can just Tweet away.
    It's also tricky as the Networks don't actually decide who is President - and in a case where the loser hasn't conceded (a very unusual circumstance) its a bit of a bind for any government. It is still possible, in theory, for Trump to win this, albeit very unlikely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    For some reason that doesn't matter. I really don't get it. Yes, British politicians including some working with Boris will have closer connections to some american politicians including some working with Trump, but at the end of the day even if the two were great pals they have very different political interests and act accordingly, as things like their Covid response has shown, as it has been very different (leaving aside the question of competence). If the PM can strike up a personal accord with the US President it might help a little bit, but a lot of our relationships are institutional or predicated on issues of strategic interest. So it's only on the petty stuff that personal stuff matters, which is why people like Macron can throw out the red carpet, since its a minor and petty thing which probably played well with Trump and cost Macron nothing.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1325118629155917833

    Moderate and sensible politics is the recipe of the 2020 and a return to Labour in Government, I feel it.

    I don't get this weird competition of who can get their tweet out fastest.
    I don't mind that, I'd mind if people were to start to make assessments based on how slow others are to respond. Which I am sure they will, given how long before Trump and Boris media and others obsess over who the US president calls first.

    I hope he calls Hunter, to scream that he almost gave the whole plot away dropping off his laptops like that :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    algarkirk said:

    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    BBC has just called it as well, the big three networks in the US must have as well.

    Settle up Betfair.

    I'm resigned to them not paying out until December, and maybe even until January 20th.
    Their rules state:


    'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution'

    That seems clear enough to ,me, Biden now has a majority of 'projected electoral college votes' and we don't have to wait 'til the college meets on 14th of December.
    That's nicely ambiguous as to what happens if there is a court challenge in process which could change the number of projected EC votes.

    There have been several already, and they’re all bollocks.

    https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1325084142900551681
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1325118629155917833

    Moderate and sensible politics is the recipe of the 2020 and a return to Labour in Government, I feel it.

    Labour are on the right track to win back a lot of voters, with years left to do so. It remains a tough ask to overcome that majority, but Starmer is showing he might be able to do it.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335

    Won in 2016 because he wasn't Hillary Clinton
    Lost in 2020 because he was Donald Trump
  • Sky getting excited about calling it for Biden but that was obvious days ago

    Congratulations to Biden and let's hope a new dawn is breaking for everyone

    However there is some no mark on Sky just now making an utter fool of himself on behalf of the past POTUS

    Time for the world to move on from the dark days of Trump
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1325118629155917833

    Moderate and sensible politics is the recipe of the 2020 and a return to Labour in Government, I feel it.

    I don't get this weird competition of who can get their tweet out fastest.
    Wasn't that long ago that The Democrats in The South were the party of segregation...
  • https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1325118214448230406

    Johnson rapidly trying to cultivate a relationship now the Donald gamble has failed.

    Now for the Brexit capitulation.

    Number 10 is professional and diplomatic. Boris will congratulate Biden in person on the phone before he speaks to the public.

    Biden won't be taking a call from Keir today so he can just Tweet away.
    You must have struggled to type this out without laughing, congratulations to you.
    Fair play there's some rubbish posted on this site.
  • Roger said:

    Is it correct that it's 52.5% for Biden 45.4% for Trump as it says on the Fox site? If so the pollsters were spot on.

    Far from it...lots of pollsters had crazy leads for Biden. Total landslide stuff. And were miles off on lots of states.
    Actually the southern states they did pretty well, its up north the polls were off. Be interesting to see why, I had been reading a fair bit even before the election night pollsters are really struggling to get responds, from thousands of request sent out less than 1% respond and even then might not fill it out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,875
    edited November 2020
    And Biden has 75 million legal votes to Trump's 71 million!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:



    I don't mind that, I'd mind if people were to start to make assessments based on how slow others are to respond.

    That's what I meant....the media obsession over it. Again, not sure how many times one can say it, twitter isn't the real world, nor do most people care about it. But our media types, it is totally all encompassing. How many retweets did it get, how many likes, how many views a video got, how fast somebody sent one....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    kle4 said:

    Shame Biden didn't get the Senate as well, but you cannot have everything. It will be fascinating to see what he comes up with in his first days in office next year, there's a lot of quick wins he can enforce.

    Er, that has yet to be decided. You may be right but we don't know that until after the runoffs January 5th.
    Yes, the point is he didn't get them in this election, so what's with the 'er'?. He might get them in the runoff, but at present he didn't get them. Hopefully he will. It just would have been nice if total victory had been confirmed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Ronald Reagan can you hear me? Ronald Reagan, George Bush,Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!
  • For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    We'll always have Paris Kim Jong-Un!
  • How long before Melania files for divorce?
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

    Exactly, so how can you have 8,127,804 registered voters if the population over 18 is 7.85 million?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Sky getting excited about calling it for Biden but that was obvious days ago

    Congratulations to Biden and let's hope a new dawn is breaking for everyone

    However there is some no mark on Sky just now making an utter fool of himself on behalf of the past POTUS

    Time for the world to move on from the dark days of Trump

    One down. One to go.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Fox saying it will become increasingly untenable for the Reps to be pursuing legal challenges.

    Remembering how Romney had a team of lawyers ready to go and challenge Obama’s win; after fifty minutes he conceded.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    edited November 2020
    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited November 2020

    What shouldn't be forgotten is nearly as many voted for Trump. I think it is worth asking oneselves why. Yes there are a loud minority of deluded nut jobs that believe every word Trump says, but I think everybody should be taken aback that even after 4 years of Trump, even after mishandling of COVID, and all the other stuff, this is no landslide that all the polls predicted. They continued to quietly vote for Trump, I believe despite Trump.
    I'm not sure it counts as a "victory for unity" when the polls took this long to sort out, and Trump got so many more votes than 2016. The increased turnout may itself be read as a sign of division! You could say his kind of populism got squashed if he performed far worse than before, but you'd have to stretch the definition of "far" to apply it here. The fact he underperformed his party generally suggests a - deserved IMHO, but I'm not a U.S. voter and my opinion does not and should not count for squat on this matter - degree of rejection for Trump as an unnecessarily divisive, unpleasant. untruthful and incompetent individual, but also a hint some other candidate (or a different version of Trump if he'd taken more advice over the last few months, or even the same Trump if he hadn't been hit by some chance events over the course of his presidency) could have pulled off a Republican win.

    The idea that this represents a grand realignment of America behind the Democrats, and particularly what outside observers hope the Democrats represent "at their best" (i.e. in the eyes of most beholders, "more akin to similar parties across the world"), is one for the birds, I think. America is, and will continue to be, something of a global exception, and for all our common language and immersion in their exported culture, perhaps will forever lie a little further beyond our comprehension than us foreigners realise.

    Everyone should ask their Trump-voting friends why they voted for him. I have and the answers were much more mixed and nuanced than you'd think from most of the media coverage. And if you don't have any Trump-voting friends when there are almost as many Trump-voters as Biden-voters, yet you claim to be a fan of "unity", then frankly you've got big questions to ask yourself.
  • So, it wasn't 1948.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594

    Andy_JS said:

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

    Exactly, so how can you have 8,127,804 registered voters if the population over 18 is 7.85 million?
    Those were the figures for 2019, maybe they've changed since then. The estimates based on the 2010 census may be wrong. I don't know.
  • Tories rapidly about turning and becoming liberal again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Ronald Reagan can you hear me? Ronald Reagan, George Bush,Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!

    Other than being tv stars, I don't think Joe Biden has more in common with Ronald Reagan than Trump...I highly doubt Reagan or Bush would recognize the Trump GOP presidency as anything like "their" party. Same as Corbyn's Labour, Tony Blair certainly didn't want have anything to do with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Yay, the era of Stop Hillary Clinton At All Costs is over.......

    Nah, Biden is going to shock everyone by reaching out to Trump voters by locking her up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Ronald Reagan can you hear me? Ronald Reagan, George Bush,Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!

    With respect Bush Snr for starters voted for Hillary in 2016 and GOP for Congress and the others had all died before then and Ford and even Nixon were far more intelligent and moderate than Trump was and Reagan was one of the greatest US Presidents in history, Trump one of the worst
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Biden Keeping The Faith, reminded me of Blazing Saddles when the sheriff leaves Rock Ridge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020



    The idea that this represents a grand realignment of America behind the Democrats, and particularly what outside observers hope the Democrats represent "at their best" (i.e. in the eyes of most beholders, "more akin to similar parties across the world"), is one for the birds, I think.

    This isn't (what people hoped of) Obama 2008....
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

    Exactly, so how can you have 8,127,804 registered voters if the population over 18 is 7.85 million?
    Do you realise the Census data is a decade out of date? The last Census was in 2010.

    The registered voter data is more up to date than the Census data.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Far more powerful to see someone overcome with emotion and speaking plainly about why, than a hundred identikit well scripted (albeit amusing) rants.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Beware of calling any nationwide vote share percentages.
    There are a heck of a lot still uncounted. The popular vote margin will grow.
    And yes the Senate is still undecided. AK remains in play but unlikely.
    Which means the GOP need that. Plus one of what are, in effect 2 Ga. by-elections.
    Much can happen from now till then.
  • Never mind CNN calling it, when do Ladbrokes call it? I was on Biden at 5/6.
    (£48 to win £40 - I know its chicken feed to some)
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

    Exactly, so how can you have 8,127,804 registered voters if the population over 18 is 7.85 million?
    Because

    The census figure is nearly two years out of date, and an estimate, and I'll let you into a secret, estimates can be wrong, the clue is in the name.
  • Trump political obituaries are starting:

    I win, I win, I always win. In the end I always win,” Donald Trump once said. Now, though, for the first time in his life, in a public and historic way, he has lost.

    As he has so relentlessly in the past, Trump is fighting against being tagged with a label that he has considered toxic to his brand. He has refused to concede. “The simple fact is this election is far from over,” he said in a statement just after the election was called. He promised to fight the results in court, alleging, without evidence, that a massive electoral fraud had robbed him of victory. But his talent for recasting reality to his advantage was incapable of overcoming a statistical truth not only accepted but dictated by the majority of the nation. He lost.


    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/07/donald-trump-is-a-loser-434103?fbclid=IwAR1Aj37KGNJEpcXnbC8vInOoi-66JS-2RgmUrpDLdj6KflSFFWYPJ5UFlW8
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    isam said:

    ping said:

    Farage £10k poorer

    Unless he laid it off at 1/4
    Or was just taking part in a paid ad...
    (Though would he not have had to declare that ?)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    Fox saying it will become increasingly untenable for the Reps to be pursuing legal challenges.

    Remembering how Romney had a team of lawyers ready to go and challenge Obama’s win; after fifty minutes he conceded.

    Apart from anything else, just look at the complete nonsense that the Trump camp are coming out with. Even IF it were all, actually true, the only way it could bear fruit in court would be for the entire election to be invalidated and re-run. All this talk about "invalidating" illegal ballots is irrelevant, because, however these ballots are defined, it is not actually possible for them to be removed.

    They seem to be resting it all on the only ballots which have been segregated - the late arrival ballots in PA which haven't even been counted yet!!!

    So basically their entire strategy is no strategy. Other than completely destroy American democracy and poison the well for elections for the foreseeable future.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    You're not seriously suggesting that Macron has/had any time for Trump? Macron thinks he's an absolute idiot. But Macron is a consummate politician - of course he wanted to get in with Trump first, to see what he could do to temper Trump's excesses - and in the interest of France, of course.
  • kle4 said:

    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
    Commentators said that Boris is well on side with Biden on climate change and of course the UK is hosting next years summit, also on international defence security and NATO, together with G7 G20 and a shared interest in TPPA

    That is a lot of shared interests
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    What shouldn't be forgotten is nearly as many voted for Trump. I think it is worth asking oneselves why. Yes there are a loud minority of deluded nut jobs that believe every word Trump says, but I think everybody should be taken aback that even after 4 years of Trump, even after mishandling of COVID, and all the other stuff, this is no landslide that all the polls predicted. They continued to quietly vote for Trump, I believe despite Trump.
    I'm not sure it counts as a "victory for unity" when the polls took this long to sort out, and Trump got so many more votes than 2016. The increased turnout may itself be read as a sign of division! You could say his kind of populism got squashed if he performed far worse than before, but you'd have to stretch the definition of "far" to apply it here. The fact he underperformed his party generally suggests a - deserved IMHO, but I'm not a U.S. voter and my opinion does not and should not count for squat on this matter - degree of rejection for Trump as an unnecessarily divisive, unpleasant. untruthful and incompetent individual, but also a hint some other candidate (or a different version of Trump if he'd taken more advice over the last few months, or even the same Trump if he hadn't been hit by some chance events over the course of his presidency) could have pulled off a Republican win.

    The idea that this represents a grand realignment of America behind the Democrats, and particularly what outside observers hope the Democrats represent "at their best" (i.e. in the eyes of most beholders, "more akin to similar parties across the world"), is one for the birds, I think. America is, and will continue to be, something of a global exception, and for all our common language and immersion in their exported culture, perhaps will forever lie a little further beyond our comprehension than us foreigners realise.

    Everyone should ask their Trump-voting friends why they voted for him. I have and the answers were much more mixed and nuanced than you'd think from most of the media coverage. And if you don't have any Trump-voting friends when there are almost as many Trump-voters as Biden-voters, yet you claim to be a fan of "unity", then frankly you've got big questions to ask yourself.
    Unity is a word which has lost all meaning in politics. September 2019 the various Brexit sides kept talking about it, despite facing an issue of inevitable binary division to which they were advocating solutions which were mutually exclusive. Neither was aiming for unity, yet they still felt the need to say they were. And on a serious and significant policy choice like that it shouldn't have been a problem to not seek unity.
  • kle4 said:

    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
    Commentators said that Boris is well on side with Biden on climate change and of course the UK is hosting next years summit, also on international defence security and NATO, together with G7 G20 and a shared interest in TPPA

    That is a lot of shared interests
    But the Biden/Obama people haven't forgotten Boris Johnson's comments on Obama's Kenyan heritage.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Amazing scenes in the US
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

    Exactly, so how can you have 8,127,804 registered voters if the population over 18 is 7.85 million?
    Because

    The census figure is nearly two years out of date, and an estimate, and I'll let you into a secret, estimates can be wrong, the clue is in the name.
    Sure and 100% of them registered to vote. Sounds totally plausible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
    Commentators said that Boris is well on side with Biden on climate change and of course the UK is hosting next years summit, also on international defence security and NATO, together with G7 G20 and a shared interest in TPPA

    That is a lot of shared interests
    Indeed but Boris will either have to now scrap the Internal Market Bill or get a FTA with the EU to minimise its impact or Biden and Pelosi have been clear there will be no UK and US FTA
  • For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    You're not seriously suggesting that Macron has/had any time for Trump? Macron thinks he's an absolute idiot. But Macron is a consummate politician - of course he wanted to get in with Trump first, to see what he could do to temper Trump's excesses - and in the interest of France, of course.
    Boris and Macron are the same. Both thing he is a total idiot. Both laughed at him behind is back, together on camera. Both also worked with him because they're head of Government and he was POTUS. Both will work with Biden.

    Boris and Macron are both more like Biden than Trump.
  • For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    You're not seriously suggesting that Macron has/had any time for Trump? Macron thinks he's an absolute idiot. But Macron is a consummate politician - of course he wanted to get in with Trump first, to see what he could do to temper Trump's excesses - and in the interest of France, of course.
    Boris and Macron are the same. Both thing he is a total idiot. Both laughed at him behind is back, together on camera. Both also worked with him because they're head of Government and he was POTUS. Both will work with Biden.

    Boris and Macron are both more like Biden than Trump.
    Johnson is nothing like Biden, you have utterly lost it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    valleyboy said:

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1325118214448230406

    Johnson rapidly trying to cultivate a relationship now the Donald gamble has failed.

    Now for the Brexit capitulation.

    Number 10 is professional and diplomatic. Boris will congratulate Biden in person on the phone before he speaks to the public.

    Biden won't be taking a call from Keir today so he can just Tweet away.
    You must have struggled to type this out without laughing, congratulations to you.
    Fair play there's some rubbish posted on this site.
    I don't like to break with tradition.
  • kle4 said:

    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
    Commentators said that Boris is well on side with Biden on climate change and of course the UK is hosting next years summit, also on international defence security and NATO, together with G7 G20 and a shared interest in TPPA

    That is a lot of shared interests
    Climate Change, Iran, Trade, Security, on almost every international relations issue Boris is closer to Biden than Trump.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    kle4 said:

    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
    Commentators said that Boris is well on side with Biden on climate change and of course the UK is hosting next years summit, also on international defence security and NATO, together with G7 G20 and a shared interest in TPPA

    That is a lot of shared interests
    "Britain Trump" was not on the side of Biden!
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Again, ridiculous, since leaders of various nations can enjoy a good relationship even if they would not agree with each others domestic politics, Democrats with Tory PMs, even Republicans with a Labour PM. Can Boris enjoy a good relationship with Biden? I suspect not, but their personal politics doesn't preclude it. It also presumes that because one side really likes the other leader, that will guarantee a good relationship, when the side in question might have little to do with the other despite that fangirling.

    Again, I don't have an issue thinking it might happen, I just find it slightly pathetic that people are so certain how the personal relationships will go, because they so clearly want their view of the domestic political alignment to be confirmed in a personal way.
    Commentators said that Boris is well on side with Biden on climate change and of course the UK is hosting next years summit, also on international defence security and NATO, together with G7 G20 and a shared interest in TPPA

    That is a lot of shared interests
    Indeed but Boris will either have to now scrap the Internal Market Bill or get a FTA with the EU to minimise its impact or Biden and Pelosi have been clear there will be no UK and US FTA
    I have no care for a US trade deal

    I do want a TPPA
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited November 2020

    DeClare said:

    BBC has just called it as well, the big three networks in the US must have as well.

    Settle up Betfair.

    I'm resigned to them not paying out until December, and maybe even until January 20th.
    Bet365 has settled some bets; Ladbrokes not yet; I've not checked the others since their settlers might be busy on Saturday (although why isn't it automated? We should ask @Tissue_Price when he reappears).

    ETA Bet365 has settled on Joe Biden but not yet on the Democrats :smile:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Boris and Trump are two cheeks of the same populist right wing arse of a movement.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've obviously made a mathematical mistake here and want some help to know what exactly it is.

    In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI

    21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).

    The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928

    https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount

    This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.

    You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.

    Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....

    MICHIGAN

    The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.

    The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.

    Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .

    The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8

    Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
    You didn't read my post again, I never mentioned the amount of votes.

    Try reading it again.
    The population of Michigan is estimated to be almost exactly 10 million.

    7.85 million are estimated to be 18 or over.

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MI/PST045219#

    Exactly, so how can you have 8,127,804 registered voters if the population over 18 is 7.85 million?
    Because

    The census figure is nearly two years out of date, and an estimate, and I'll let you into a secret, estimates can be wrong, the clue is in the name.
    Sure and 100% of them registered to vote. Sounds totally plausible.
    You do realise Michigan sent everyone a mail in ballot.

    They are very big on voter drives.

    You can thank the GOP controlled Michigan Senate and House for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    You're not seriously suggesting that Macron has/had any time for Trump? Macron thinks he's an absolute idiot. But Macron is a consummate politician - of course he wanted to get in with Trump first, to see what he could do to temper Trump's excesses - and in the interest of France, of course.
    And quite right of him too. And it's not possible that Boris played up to Trump how much he liked him personally because he saw advantage for the UK in doing so, and will seek to work with Biden for the same advantage? And that Biden will do the same for the USA, even if he thinks Boris is an idiot?
  • For all the "Boris was too close to Trump" types, I wonder if the same people will forget just how keen Macron was to be seen as BFF with him? First meeting, first state visits etc, all Macron.

    You're not seriously suggesting that Macron has/had any time for Trump? Macron thinks he's an absolute idiot. But Macron is a consummate politician - of course he wanted to get in with Trump first, to see what he could do to temper Trump's excesses - and in the interest of France, of course.
    Boris and Macron are the same. Both thing he is a total idiot. Both laughed at him behind is back, together on camera. Both also worked with him because they're head of Government and he was POTUS. Both will work with Biden.

    Boris and Macron are both more like Biden than Trump.
    Johnson is nothing like Biden, you have utterly lost it.
    Of course he is. Biden has just won election with a platform not particularly different to Johnson's. On almost every global issue like Climate Change they are close. Biden isn't a leftwinger he's just won election with record numbers of Republicans campaigning for him.
This discussion has been closed.