Pelosi slams Trump for telling suburban women voters he is "getting your husbands back to work" "What decade is he living in? What century is he living in? So completely removed from the realties of life. And that has caused death." https://t.co/sdQVp1gT3q pic.twitter.com/vAENjcsqHt
Comments
"the Uniondivvie"
"Thanks for condolences SeaShanty, ydoethur and others.
Strangely Trump came up independently of the family revelation (that was at the funeral meats). My uncle was a Liberal Unionist who loathed Brexit and Trump, and his son, my cousin, in his tribute brought up Trump as the polar opposite of of the person that was my uncle. Weird how politics crops up.
The Isle Lewis has it's own sort of rascals who are not really brashly Trumpian, more Odysseus the Trickster types. This is a good example, an interesting story even if you're not a Lewisman I think."
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Life-Soolivan-Recollections-Traveller-Raconteur/dp/1841583286
Looking at the map, I see that the "Isle" of Lewis is NOT an island - sounds pretty Trumpian to me!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8893561/UK-PACING-SAGEs-worst-case-scenario-projections-85-000-Covid-19-deaths-second-wave.html
Horgabost has been a bit wrecked by the campsite tho'. I preferred it when it was just Queenie's chod (allegedly) and nothing else..
But calling yerself an island when you clearly ain't - THAT's pure Trumpsky!
A pulverising of polls this evening as might be expected moving into the final five days of the 2020 American Presidential, Senate, Congressional and Dog-Catcher election campaigns.
Starting with the national polls and Rasmussen charitably gives Biden a sniff tonight with a 48-47 lead. Elsewhere, IBD/TIPP is unchanged at 50-45 while USA Today has a Suffolk poll which has Biden 7.5% ahead (51.8-44.3)
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/10_29_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=7BE590FE9C03C3188A29E97C1108D5CB75C70362
Three Florida polls including one from Monmouth have Biden ahead by 3-6 points.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_FL_102920/
On that basis, I'm moving Florida into the Blue column on my map.
A Quinnipiac poll has Trump ahead 47-46 in Iowa - I'm keeping that state TCTC but very much in the lean Trump column.
A couple of Minnesota polls might concern the Biden campaign especially the Survey USA poll showing Biden up by just five 47-42:
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20400328/surveyusa1028.pdf
Clinton won Minnesota by just 1.5 points last time and Trump fans have always seen this as one of the potential "flips". A 5-point lead represents a small 1.75% swing from 2016 which would be enough across the board but not by much.
Quinnipiac has Biden up seven in Pennsylvania while North Carolina remains TCTC with one poll showing a 48-48 tie and a Siena poll has a 3-point lead for Biden. (48-45).
In Georgia, a Public Policy Polling poll (!) has Biden ahead by two but PPP has a lean towards the Democrats so nothing to move the state out of the TCTC column.
In Texas, a UMass/Lowell poll has Trump ahead 47-46
https://www.uml.edu/docs/2020-Texas-Oct-Topline_tcm18-331627.pdf
There's been a lot of polling in Texas and plenty of argument on here that Biden winning represents a value bet. That may well be but in terms of winning the State, I'm still not convinced. The changes on the last equivalent UMass/Lowell poll are Trump -1 and Biden +2. I'm keeping Texas in the Red column but if we see a couple more decent polls for Biden it'll go in the TCTC column.
In Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll has Biden up five (48-43) and I'm happy to keep the state in the TCTC column thought now leaning to Biden.
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682
Four other states which are not marginals have polls out - in New Hampshire, Biden leads by ten which is a 5% swing from 2016. In Virginia, Biden leads by twelve so a 3.5% swing from 2016. As for New Jersey, a 24 point Biden lead represents a 5% swing from 2016. On the Red front, a rare poll from Alabama has a 19-point Trump lead represents a 4.5% swing to Biden from 2016.
Four non-marginal states and a consistent 3.5-5% swing to Biden suggesting a national poll lead of 9-12 points though with the swing less in the marginal states perhaps nearer a 6-8 point lead.
My map has 314-163 for Biden with 61 TCTC.
Leòdhasachs & Hearachs
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-people-mount-strong-antibody-response.amp
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1321849280039129092?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1321894769556148224?s=20
Just like some we might mention who, who've chugged down WAY more of The Donald's hell-brew than's good for 'em!
https://twitter.com/JamesEFoster/status/1321751365429960704?s=19
So, sir or madam or who knows (as the case may be) please withdraw your aspersions upon the good folk of the Ocean State!! Or risk meeting the ghost of Roger Williams on some dark and stormy night!!!
OR even worse, some gnarled old Sicilian lady from Pawtucket will mutter an ancient curse AND give you her evil eye!!!!
https://twitter.com/cquilty52/status/1321809462890516480
***** BETTING POST *****
Ohio simply has to be the ultimate bellwether state, evidenced by the fact that in the 31 General Elections since 1896, it has only twice (in 1944 and 1960) failed to vote for the winning candidate, meaning that it has backed the winner unerringly over the past 56 years! Furthermore, no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Against such a background, it is interesting to note that despite the betting markets having Trump as the clear favourite to win this state with Betfair Exchange at current net odds of 1.40, Biden, shown in the most recent polls as having a clear lead, has to be the value bet at 3.09 not only to land the state but to continue its startling record of correctly backing the winner over a consecutive period of 60 years.
Show me a better U.S. Election bet offering odds of better than 2/1!
As ever, DYOR.
https://twitter.com/StefanRousseau/status/1321838262818930689?s=20
She coined Quilty's Law, which states that the longer you argue online with an Antisemite, the greater the probability they will claim to have Jewish ancestry.
In 1960 the Republican ticket of Nixon-Lodge (neither Ohioans) won the state by margin of +273k so not even close that year.
Nate's obviously reasing your posts @peter_from_putney!
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1321919738625183744?s=20
It's called an island because (like Isle of Ely) it was bit of higher, dryer land in the middle of a swamp (or marsh if you prefer). Reason for Avery Island's existence is that it is the top of a salt dome.
Excellent spot, PfP. I suspect Trump will just hold it but it's no 2/1 chance. I'm on.
I'd still favour Trump to win by 2-4 points but it is tightening and IF this is a blowout Biden win nationally (double digits lead), it's hard not to think Texas would be gained by the Democrats in both the Presidential and Senate elections.
https://twitter.com/NYRangersss/status/1321104566524456961
https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1321897520096825344
Maybe it used to be kinda cool in a naff British seaside resort kind of way, but if it ever was turning up the Wokeness to 11 has put paid to that too.
I've actually avoided Ohio because I can't call it.
Florida is virtually in the bag for Biden.
I think in kinky circles she would be termed “a brat”
BTW, any PBers who can find a bookie stupid enough to offer odds that Rhode Islanders will vote on Tuesday to remove the "and Providence Plantations" part of the state's name should take that bet. The only real question is by how high a margin it will be defeated (at least 70/30 my wife reckons). RI does not do "woke". For instance it's the only state that still commemorates VJ-Day as a state holiday.
This will pass in two or three years without a vaccine or a matter of months if we do have one.
We just have to dig deep for a little while.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1321899598928105472?s=09
https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1321899840658460677?s=09
I'd have thought it would be a lot more than that.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1321924032426582027
France
291020 47,637
221020 41,622
151020 30,621
081020 18,129
Germany
291020 18,492
221020 12,519
151020 7,074
081020 4,401
Italy
291020 26,831
221020 16,079
151020 8,803
081020 4,458
Poland
291020 20,156
221020 12,107
151020 8,099
081020 4,280
Spain
291020 23,580
221020 16,965
151020 15,441
081020 12,161
UK
291020 23,065
221020 21,243
151020 18,965
081020 17,540
Data from worldometer.
It became obvious in Starmer's press conference this morning his holding position could not last
The right thing to do and compliments to Starmer for doing it
https://news.sky.com/story/nice-knife-attack-one-of-the-three-victims-named-as-vincent-loques-12117957
When will they return, I wonder?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1321917528604639233?s=20
I was expecting the polls to get provably more and more accurate but without knowing who in the sample has voted early it makes it more and more confusing.
We had already decided not to fly anymore and we have been to most no fly cruise destinations ex UK, as well as many worldwide, so we are just grateful to have been able to do it all before covid changed the dynamic so comprehensively