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Home truths about Covid-19 – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    It's performative ignorance. Because Sturgeon said it "It's too complicated".

    Probably only fair to note this goes in the opposite direction. No idea why people thought some of the restriction packages like the rule of six were overly confusing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Someone check on Horse - that could push him over the edge...
    Not in the least surprised SKS is very poor
    More likely a Burnham effect.
    Except its Friday to Sunday last week.

    Labs position is all over the place TBH

    Next years LE are very important.

    Boris is also more likeable
    The county elections are next year and even on today's Comres Labour should make gains given it was Tories 38%, Labour 27% and LDs 18% in the last county elections in 2017. Labour should also make further gains in the London Assembly based on the London poll today.

    The Tories might make a few gains in the District elections postponed until next year though as in 2016 it was Labour 31%, Tories 30% and LDs 15% and UKIP 12% when they were last up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    The latter prediction is another keeper.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    T3 everywhere but Devon and Cornwall incoming....
    Looks like turnaround times are improving, so less backdating. Specimen date still looks like a plateau.
    The specimen date always looks like a plateau when cases are rising, simply because recent dates are incomplete. That's why the specimen date is pretty useless for determining what is happening right now!

    The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date and project them forwards by 3 days.
    See above - depends on how much updating. I believe the turn-arounds are currently much improved. We are not out of the woods, but a combination of restrictions and fear is getting R to around 1.
    I think we'll need to wait for the next few days of data to see if that's true. If they've suddenly found the capacity to clear out 50000 tests sitting in the cupboard then you might expect a spike. Given lots of specimens from monday showed up but less at the weekend that suggests a backlog got cleared somewhere.

    HOWEVER, we'll need to wait for a few days to be sure of that.
  • Fishing said:

    Deleted as I misunderstood original post!

    Woah, don't start a precedent like that, otherwise a lot of future PB posts will be exclusively

    Deleted as I misunderstood original post!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

  • So, the administration that brought you the FACT message (which is being supplemented by the UK's govt's "Hands Face Space" message because no one understands it as its too complicated) now brings you a three FIVE tier system because that's .....simpler and easier to understand?

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1318905206634123264?s=20

    5 Tiers, if clearly defined, would be better than "Tier 3 with gyms open" and "Tier 3 with gyms shut".
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    First Johnny Rotten, now 50 cent. Which washed up music star will endorse next!
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Aberystwyth has a Shrewsbury postcode. It's a 2 hour drive away.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    If a deal is achieved, and the reality of it isn't that bad next year, a vaccine comes through next Spring, and then the Gover starts using the new post-Brexit regulatory powers to push through some popular reforms then.. where do Labour go from there?
    Gove and popular don’t go together. He’s more of a Tory version of Gordon Brown, endlessly looking for new dividing lines.
    Agreed. He's disingenuous, and frustratingly polite whilst doing it, which makes him dislikeable.

    But, he's also extremely intelligent and thoughtful and has come up with great ideas on a new green agriculture policy and marine conservation zones, animal welfare, and will have ideas on regulatory liberalisation too.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    OnboardG1 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mal557 said:

    We've had the following state polls today so far, that are all very good for Biden.

    Civiqs Florida
    Biden 51%
    Trump 47%

    Civiqs Nevada
    Biden 52%
    Trump 43%

    Suffolk University Pennsylvania
    Biden 49%
    Trump 42%

    Yes, it's a generally good polling day for Biden.

    Did we ever get to the bottom of the IBD Tipp methodology? It's the same as yesterday I think?
    To quote IBD's own explanation

    'The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,162 registered and 1,016 likely voters, from Oct. 16 through Oct. 120. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 375 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 289 independents.

    The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.'

    So todays poll is based on the 200 registered voters they sampled and each day for the next 4 days they will do a new 200 (until all 1000 have been done) so the % we see each day is the 200 for that day (so todays on 538 is for the 20th)
    So each daily poll has a sample size of 200, or do they top up their sample to 1,000 with older samples?
    The 45 - 64 sample being less Trumper than the 65+ sample looks sui generis to me. I know Biden is doing well with seniors but I'd still expect a broad rightwing drift as people get older.
    The demographics I've seen indicate that Trump is more popular amongst the middle aged than he is amongst the elderly. Which surprised me a bit.
    There's an article that I can't now find (I think it was Harry Enten) who pointed out that the drift of the senior vote away from Trump has been happening for a while. There's been some suggestions as to why, but I find the healthcare angle to be the most plausible.
    The fact that COVID affects the elderly by far the most and the huge difference of the two candidates approach to the pandemic (Trump almost dismissing it in some ways) is I am sure a factor in why some older voters are less likely to vote for him this time. Sometimes personal health and feeling you are valued trumps even political loyalty.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
  • alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    Bother! It does look like r about 1.3, like the actuaries thought.
    The ZOE app score on the door for today is just over 35k.

    More alarmingly, looking at their graph (NB this is the total number are infected on any one day)

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    and eyeballing, there's a hopeful looking kink to something slower around October 1, but then the growth takes off again. What's that about?
    What could easily have happened is the the University students caused a massive spike which is unwinding at the same time as the consequential growth is happening in other age groups. The university decline has been masking the growth giving an impression that the position is stable.
    That's plausible. It matches the ward level data as well, I think. (At the start of the month, University wards were massively contributing to the case count, I don't think they are so much now.)

    If that is the case, we're in pretty deep doo-doo, aren't we?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    Not good
    Laggy data is laggy. We knew there were missing tests backlogged.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    If a deal is achieved, and the reality of it isn't that bad next year, a vaccine comes through next Spring, and then the Gover starts using the new post-Brexit regulatory powers to push through some popular reforms then.. where do Labour go from there?
    You have sold it to me. Johnson's Conservative Government will have had an awesome year by next March, what with Brexit and managing the pandemic. Lucky jobs won't be lost and homes repossessed on an industrial scale over the next three years.
    I'm not saying he will, in fact I think it's more likely he lurches from one crisis to the next, but I certainly don't rule it out.

    The UTOA Remainers have cried wolf so hard and long over Brexit and set expectations accordingly that it's possible people just adjust, accept it and adapt to it - and move on - rather than grab their nearest EU flag and march on parliament.

    I am merely posing a scenario that I'd say is a 35% shot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Someone check on Horse - that could push him over the edge...
    Not in the least surprised SKS is very poor
    More likely a Burnham effect.
    Except its Friday to Sunday last week.

    Labs position is all over the place TBH

    Next years LE are very important.

    Boris is also more likeable
    The county elections are next year and even on today's Comres Labour should make gains given it was Tories 38%, Labour 27% and LDs 18% in the last county elections in 2017. Labour should also make further gains in the London Assembly based on the London poll today.

    The Tories might make a few gains in the District elections postponed until next year though as in 2016 it was Labour 31%, Tories 30% and LDs 15% and UKIP 12% when they were last up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    The latter prediction is another keeper.
    UKIP won 58 district council seats in 2016, many will be Tory targets
  • Dafuq?

    He should have been fired as a minimum.

    Paramedic avoids ban from practicing after telling woman who later died of organ failure that she was feigning illness

    Anthony Morris, a paramedic with the North West Ambulance Service, has had conditions placed upon him however following a hearing into an incident that saw young mum Beatrice Lovane from Rochdale collapse at the bottom of her staircase


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/paramedic-avoids-ban-practicing-after-19141136
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited October 2020
    Mal557 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mal557 said:

    We've had the following state polls today so far, that are all very good for Biden.

    Civiqs Florida
    Biden 51%
    Trump 47%

    Civiqs Nevada
    Biden 52%
    Trump 43%

    Suffolk University Pennsylvania
    Biden 49%
    Trump 42%

    Yes, it's a generally good polling day for Biden.

    Did we ever get to the bottom of the IBD Tipp methodology? It's the same as yesterday I think?
    To quote IBD's own explanation

    'The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,162 registered and 1,016 likely voters, from Oct. 16 through Oct. 120. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 375 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 289 independents.

    The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.'

    So todays poll is based on the 200 registered voters they sampled and each day for the next 4 days they will do a new 200 (until all 1000 have been done) so the % we see each day is the 200 for that day (so todays on 538 is for the 20th)
    So each daily poll has a sample size of 200, or do they top up their sample to 1,000 with older samples?
    The 45 - 64 sample being less Trumper than the 65+ sample looks sui generis to me. I know Biden is doing well with seniors but I'd still expect a broad rightwing drift as people get older.
    The demographics I've seen indicate that Trump is more popular amongst the middle aged than he is amongst the elderly. Which surprised me a bit.
    There's an article that I can't now find (I think it was Harry Enten) who pointed out that the drift of the senior vote away from Trump has been happening for a while. There's been some suggestions as to why, but I find the healthcare angle to be the most plausible.
    The fact that COVID affects the elderly by far the most and the huge difference of the two candidates approach to the pandemic (Trump almost dismissing it in some ways) is I am sure a factor in why some older voters are less likely to vote for him this time. Sometimes personal health and feeling you are valued trumps even political loyalty.
    Sorry, should have added that this drift has been happening since pre-covid. Enten linked to a poll from Oct 2019 which showed seniors favouring Biden by 11. I meant that the fact Trump has been trying to smash healthcare entitlements to bits wasn't going to go down well with seniors. Also, doing that and then getting helicoptered to Walter Reed at taxpayers expense and given lots of expensive and experimental therapy is a really, really awful look.

    EDIT: found it https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/19/politics/biden-older-voters/index.html
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    OnboardG1 said:

    First Johnny Rotten, now 50 cent. Which washed up music star will endorse next!
    Has anyone seen Power which is produced by 20 Cent? I had to stop watching it when he featured himself.

    He was completely incomprehensible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    "Oh no, he isn't!"

    "Oh yes, he is!"

    *THWACK*

    *OW!!"

    Both: "Hahahaha!"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Aberystwyth has a Shrewsbury postcode. It's a 2 hour drive away.
    So what?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    rottenborough - didn't Johnson say it all had to be agreed by now otherwise no deal? Perhaps people are just taking him at his word.

    Still no second spike in the Swedish death rate.

    All the talk is of whether the polls are 'correct' and Biden is heading for a win. No-one seems to be wondering whether the polls could be correct but Biden will lose because of deliberate voter suppression. The assumption is that if the polls don't match the final result it is due to shy Trumpers. Why?

    Also don't BLM seem to be rather quiet on this issue? You'd think black people having to queue for hours just to exercise their voting rights would be a galvanising outrage for social justice types. Maybe not for marxists/anarchists trots though.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited October 2020
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Aberystwyth has a Shrewsbury postcode. It's a 2 hour drive away.
    I do appreciate Anabobazina explaining to me where I am from as I apparently didn't know that GM was a ceremonial county or that Lancashire had its administrative boundaries changed in 1974. I had no idea.

    Anyway, you think Lancastrians are bad. Go to Saddleworth and tell them they aren't in Yorkshire. Wear a helmet and body armour...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Aberystwyth has a Shrewsbury postcode. It's a 2 hour drive away.
    Postcodes for the London numbered districts considerably predate those in the provinces. Provincial postcodes reflect the areas served by the then Post Office’s District Offices and were never intended to represent any independent geography.

    The original locations of the DOs were heavily determined by the railway network
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    Alistair said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    Not good
    Laggy data is laggy. We knew there were missing tests backlogged.
    Today (by specimen date)

    image

    Yesterday

    image
  • Meanwhile, here in Stockton-on-Tees we are (thanks as always for the tables @Malmesbury) 18th in the country for pox per 100k. And the highest borough anywhere that is not already in Tier 3 or on a countdown to an announced start of Tier 3.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.
  • Alistair said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    Not good
    Laggy data is laggy. We knew there were missing tests backlogged.
    Yes, the actual number of positive cases for today will probably turn out to be around 21 - 22k. Which is, of course, still awful and still increasing rapidly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    I am President Skroob and I approve of this message......
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Maybe - I think you're verging on estate-agent map re-inventing territory mind.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Parochial but fun.

    Identity, schmidentity.
  • I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    Yoons evidently think they've found their latest, duff, Nat-killing silver bullet. In a week's time the dumber ones will still be looking down the barrel of their Webley, frantically pulling the trigger and wondering why it hasn't gone off.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    First Johnny Rotten, now 50 cent. Which washed up music star will endorse next!
    Of course Biden only has young and upcoming endorsements like Ted Danson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Actually it did, since full postal addresses no longer require a county.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    OnboardG1 said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    T3 everywhere but Devon and Cornwall incoming....
    Looks like turnaround times are improving, so less backdating. Specimen date still looks like a plateau.
    The specimen date always looks like a plateau when cases are rising, simply because recent dates are incomplete. That's why the specimen date is pretty useless for determining what is happening right now!

    The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date and project them forwards by 3 days.
    See above - depends on how much updating. I believe the turn-arounds are currently much improved. We are not out of the woods, but a combination of restrictions and fear is getting R to around 1.
    I think we'll need to wait for the next few days of data to see if that's true. If they've suddenly found the capacity to clear out 50000 tests sitting in the cupboard then you might expect a spike. Given lots of specimens from monday showed up but less at the weekend that suggests a backlog got cleared somewhere.

    HOWEVER, we'll need to wait for a few days to be sure of that.
    The peaks around the 6th and 14th are now baked into the specimen date data.

    image
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Alistair said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    Not good
    Laggy data is laggy. We knew there were missing tests backlogged.
    I think we'll need to see if this actually holds over the next few days, but it would be quite a good development if it does. We could move from a 10 days behind infection (5 days to symptoms, 5 days to test results) to just 7 days behind. The next big thing would be to have enough capacity for actually useful contact testing so contacts all get tests within 3 days of meeting a someone who has received a positive result, after that results all within 24h has got to be the goal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Do you have any proof he doesn't do that?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    Yoons evidently think they've found their latest, duff, Nat-killing silver bullet. In a week's time the dumber ones will still be looking down the barrel of their Webley, frantically pulling the trigger and wondering why it hasn't gone off.
    So you support Nipoleon's "5 tier" system, just like New Zealand?

    And can you explain what FACT means? Most Scots can't.....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited October 2020
    The thumbnail is rather 'Mafia boss making public demands', isn't it?
  • OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Absolutely. Its all his fault when you think about it. Definitely not the government's.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The public speaks.

    And not in a good way for lockdown fanatics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Aberystwyth has a Shrewsbury postcode. It's a 2 hour drive away.
    I do appreciate Anabobazina explaining to me where I am from as I apparently didn't know that GM was a ceremonial county or that Lancashire had its administrative boundaries changed in 1974. I had no idea.

    Anyway, you think Lancastrians are bad. Go to Saddleworth and tell them they aren't in Yorkshire. Wear a helmet and body armour...
    When Matthew Engels went there for his book Engel's England (which is based on the old counties), he found that to be a myth.

    Only a few elderly obsessives said they lived in Yorkshire.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited October 2020

    I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    Yoons evidently think they've found their latest, duff, Nat-killing silver bullet. In a week's time the dumber ones will still be looking down the barrel of their Webley, frantically pulling the trigger and wondering why it hasn't gone off.
    So you support Nipoleon's "5 tier" system, just like New Zealand?

    And can you explain what FACT means? Most Scots can't.....
    Face coverings, Avoid Crowds, Two Meter Social Distancing, Self Isolate if Ill. Hands, Face Space is better but the fundamental message gets banged home every day so it doesn't matter that much. EDIT: I did that from memory but realised I'd missed "Clean Hands". Which I do anyway because "Wash your damned hands" has been the messaging all along.

    Five tiers is completely fine. You could easily ask why the entire country is at "Medium" risk in England. Provided the tiers are clear (and it seems they are) it doesn't matter how many you have. You're being willfully obtuse.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    Yoons evidently think they've found their latest, duff, Nat-killing silver bullet. In a week's time the dumber ones will still be looking down the barrel of their Webley, frantically pulling the trigger and wondering why it hasn't gone off.
    So you support Nipoleon's "5 tier" system, just like New Zealand?

    And can you explain what FACT means? Most Scots can't.....
    FACTS. It’s Facts.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Bloody Hell. Jersey kicking off about the UK Fisheries Bill.
    War looming?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Omnium said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
    Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
    Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.

    Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
    My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
    Parts of Greater London don't have London postcodes.

    Yet they remain part of Greater London.

    The situation in Manchester is the same.

    Maybe - I think you're verging on estate-agent map re-inventing territory mind.
    Nope. Simple facts.

    What Rochdale Pioneers says or feels has no bearing on the simple truth that Rochdale is in Greater Manchester.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    26688
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Absolutely. Its all his fault when you think about it. Definitely not the government's.
    How is it the Governments fault that parents do not use their money to feed their children?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Young Rashford is quite the charitable giver

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/11878415/marcus-rashford-charity-list-man-utd-stars-generous-acts/

    I'd ask why more wealthy people don't donate as much of their time and influences to good causes as he does.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I 'recruit short term staff'
    You "outsource"
    Tories "fill the pockets of their millionaire chums"

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1318940514213892096?s=20
  • I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Lancashire?

    Were you here for the 'northerners are parochial' chat?

    I only ask because it was 'renamed' 46 years ago.
    Yes, I made the point that much of the north are parochial bigots.

    1. Chunks of Lancashire were given to GM. Lancastrians still called it Lancashire
    2. Greater Manchester was then abolished when I was 9. At which point it reverted to Lancashire
    3. Being born in Ashton-Under-Lyne I have the birthright (but not the talent) to play cricket for Lancashire. Because its Lancashire.

    The 1974 counties have largely gone. Thanks to later reorganisations we have wonders like York no longer being in North Yorkshire. So go back to the ceremonial counties. Its Lancashire.
    1. Correct and correct (they are wrong to do so though)
    2. Wrong. Rochdale hasn't been in Lancashire since 1974. From 1986, it beysideecame a met borough within the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities. It is now part of the GM mayoralty.
    3. Correct and wrong

    The ceremonial county is Greater Manchester.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England
    There is a long-standing dispute in chess circles, reminiscent of Jarndyce v Jarndyce, dating back to the 1970s local government re-organisation. Up to then the Northern Counties Chess Union consisted of Lancashire, Yorkshire, Northumberland, Durham, Cumbria and Cheshire. As you would expect, Lancashire and Yorkshire were "top dogs".
    But in 1975 a group of GM (that's Greater Manchester, not Grandmaster) players decided to set up a Greater Manchester Chess Federation. The NCCU, particular Lancashire, were having none of it, so the (Greater) Manchester Chess Federation play in the Midland Counties Chess Union !
    Curiously there are now separate Lancashire and Merseyside federations, but still a united Yorkshire one.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    T3 everywhere but Devon and Cornwall incoming....
    Looks like turnaround times are improving, so less backdating. Specimen date still looks like a plateau.
    The specimen date always looks like a plateau when cases are rising, simply because recent dates are incomplete. That's why the specimen date is pretty useless for determining what is happening right now!

    The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date and project them forwards by 3 days.
    See above - depends on how much updating. I believe the turn-arounds are currently much improved. We are not out of the woods, but a combination of restrictions and fear is getting R to around 1.
    I think we'll need to wait for the next few days of data to see if that's true. If they've suddenly found the capacity to clear out 50000 tests sitting in the cupboard then you might expect a spike. Given lots of specimens from monday showed up but less at the weekend that suggests a backlog got cleared somewhere.

    HOWEVER, we'll need to wait for a few days to be sure of that.
    The peaks around the 6th and 14th are now baked into the specimen date data.

    image
    Does that imply the recent increase is due to faster turnaround or brown alert time?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2020

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    IanB2 said:

    I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    Yoons evidently think they've found their latest, duff, Nat-killing silver bullet. In a week's time the dumber ones will still be looking down the barrel of their Webley, frantically pulling the trigger and wondering why it hasn't gone off.
    So you support Nipoleon's "5 tier" system, just like New Zealand?

    And can you explain what FACT means? Most Scots can't.....
    FACTS. It’s Facts.
    I should have known FACT would be too simple......
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    OnboardG1 said:

    I hope you're taking notes - pay attention at the back!

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20

    Well Carlotta, you would have plenty to complain about Nippy if your boy and his chums hadn't been so abject.

    Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
    Yoons evidently think they've found their latest, duff, Nat-killing silver bullet. In a week's time the dumber ones will still be looking down the barrel of their Webley, frantically pulling the trigger and wondering why it hasn't gone off.
    So you support Nipoleon's "5 tier" system, just like New Zealand?

    And can you explain what FACT means? Most Scots can't.....
    Face coverings, Avoid Crowds, Two Meter Social Distancing, Self Isolate if Ill. Hands, Face Space is better but the fundamental message gets banged home every day so it doesn't matter that much. EDIT: I did that from memory but realised I'd missed "Clean Hands". Which I do anyway because "Wash your damned hands" has been the messaging all along.

    Five tiers is completely fine. You could easily ask why the entire country is at "Medium" risk in England. Provided the tiers are clear (and it seems they are) it doesn't matter how many you have. You're being willfully obtuse.
    'Carlotta' would be much more convincing as a serious commentator on Scotland if she/he/it didn't make it so clear that the matter was prejudged by using a derogatory version of a derogatory and abusive name. The stuff on Guernsey has been genuinely interesting, in my opinion.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Omnium said:

    Someone check on Horse - that could push him over the edge...
    Not in the least surprised SKS is very poor
    More likely a Burnham effect.
    Except its Friday to Sunday last week.

    Labs position is all over the place TBH

    Next years LE are very important.

    Boris is also more likeable
    I bet you like Farage too.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    The public speaks.

    And not in a good way for lockdown fanatics.
    That video deserves to go viral.

    I don't agree exactly with what she says, but she has put together a much clearer argument in 40 seconds than any politician from any side of the debate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Actually it is because primary sorting by county to secondary roads staffed by higher graded posties who knew the geography of their patches has long since been replaced by primary sorting by post town and postcode. Sticking the county after an address adds nothing, doesn’t help the PO (RM) and in some circumstances could increase the chance of a missort.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Absolutely. Its all his fault when you think about it. Definitely not the government's.
    How is it the Governments fault that parents do not use their money to feed their children?
    What money? A lot of parents are broke as fuck.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited October 2020

    The public speaks.

    And not in a good way for lockdown fanatics.
    Is she the public? Is that reflected in the polls? Are the lockdown fanatics a tiny minority? Are the let-rippers, like the old lady and you, the majority?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Young Rashford is quite the charitable giver

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/11878415/marcus-rashford-charity-list-man-utd-stars-generous-acts/

    I'd ask why more wealthy people don't donate as much of their time and influences to good causes as he does.
    The man earns £1million per month, imagine that. He trains fours hours a day and plays once or twice a week. Thats it. Do you really think what is listed in that article equates to more than a monetary value of 1/2 day of his wages?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    The public speaks.

    And not in a good way for lockdown fanatics.
    Sample of one speaks for the nation.

    k
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
    You are in danger of clouding the issue with facts.

    I mean, Rochdale Pioneers could just have looked Wikipedia.

    This is the opening sentence of the entry:

    Rochdale /ˈrɒtʃdeɪl/ is a large town in Greater Manchester, England,[1] at the foothills of the South Pennines in the dale on the River Roch, 5.3 miles (8.5 km) northwest of Oldham and 9.8 miles (15.8 km) northeast of Manchester.

    But this is PB.

  • It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I 'recruit short term staff'
    You "outsource"
    Tories "fill the pockets of their millionaire chums"

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1318940514213892096?s=20

    Lol



  • OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Young Rashford is quite the charitable giver

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/11878415/marcus-rashford-charity-list-man-utd-stars-generous-acts/

    I'd ask why more wealthy people don't donate as much of their time and influences to good causes as he does.
    The man earns £1million per month, imagine that. He trains fours hours a day and plays once or twice a week. Thats it. Do you really think what is listed in that article equates to more than a monetary value of 1/2 day of his wages?
    Is this the 'politics of envy' that I've so often heard about from the Conservatives?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Young Rashford is quite the charitable giver

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/11878415/marcus-rashford-charity-list-man-utd-stars-generous-acts/

    I'd ask why more wealthy people don't donate as much of their time and influences to good causes as he does.
    The man earns £1million per month, imagine that. He trains fours hours a day and plays once or twice a week. Thats it. Do you really think what is listed in that article equates to more than a monetary value of 1/2 day of his wages?
    Stick to telling us about the NHS in southern England, you may actually know something about it unlike your other crusades.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
    You are in danger of clouding the issue with facts.

    I mean, Rochdale Pioneers could just have looked Wikipedia.

    This is the opening sentence of the entry:

    Rochdale /ˈrɒtʃdeɪl/ is a large town in Greater Manchester, England,[1] at the foothills of the South Pennines in the dale on the River Roch, 5.3 miles (8.5 km) northwest of Oldham and 9.8 miles (15.8 km) northeast of Manchester.

    But this is PB.

    I mean yes, but the Newcastle upon Tyne Wikipedia page says that the city is part of some fairytale place called "Tyne and Wear" and we all know that is fanciful.
  • I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Lancashire?

    Were you here for the 'northerners are parochial' chat?

    I only ask because it was 'renamed' 46 years ago.
    Yes, I made the point that much of the north are parochial bigots.

    1. Chunks of Lancashire were given to GM. Lancastrians still called it Lancashire
    2. Greater Manchester was then abolished when I was 9. At which point it reverted to Lancashire
    3. Being born in Ashton-Under-Lyne I have the birthright (but not the talent) to play cricket for Lancashire. Because its Lancashire.

    The 1974 counties have largely gone. Thanks to later reorganisations we have wonders like York no longer being in North Yorkshire. So go back to the ceremonial counties. Its Lancashire.
    1. Correct and correct (they are wrong to do so though)
    2. Wrong. Rochdale hasn't been in Lancashire since 1974. From 1986, it beysideecame a met borough within the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities. It is now part of the GM mayoralty.
    3. Correct and wrong

    The ceremonial county is Greater Manchester.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England
    There is a long-standing dispute in chess circles, reminiscent of Jarndyce v Jarndyce, dating back to the 1970s local government re-organisation. Up to then the Northern Counties Chess Union consisted of Lancashire, Yorkshire, Northumberland, Durham, Cumbria and Cheshire. As you would expect, Lancashire and Yorkshire were "top dogs".
    But in 1975 a group of GM (that's Greater Manchester, not Grandmaster) players decided to set up a Greater Manchester Chess Federation. The NCCU, particular Lancashire, were having none of it, so the (Greater) Manchester Chess Federation play in the Midland Counties Chess Union !
    Curiously there are now separate Lancashire and Merseyside federations, but still a united Yorkshire one.
    Along similar lines we have "Teesside" which was Cleveland and is now Tees Valley or summut.

    Anyway the fun bit is that Momentum set up Teesside Momentum. Two Stockton activists were so extreme that they were invited to go and set up a Stockton branch. So that the rest of them were left alone.

    Not that any of it matters. I live south of the Tees and that is YORKSHIRE says him eminence Thornaby's Mayor for Life. That Anabobazina better not come over here and tell him its not YORKSHIRE or else he'll lecture you for 15 minutes jabbing the finger then breathe on you to death.

    YORKSHIRE. Complete with a massive YORKSHIRE flag flying from the town hall so that Durham can see it over the river. As for Saddleworth, the good burghers of Denshaw, Delph, Diggle etc get reet 'et up about it whatever some outsider says. What proper winds them up is being made part of Oldham borough cos everyone in Owdham says its Lancashire and they're YORKSHIRE. Wi't white rose flag un all.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    The public speaks.

    And not in a good way for lockdown fanatics.
    Is she the public? Is that reflected in the polls? Are the lockdown fanatics a tiny minority? Are the let-rippers like the old lady and you the majority?
    "We went out onto the High Street to ask people whether they thought it was ok to be out on the High Street. Here's what we found.."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Actually it is because primary sorting by county to secondary roads staffed by higher graded posties who knew the geography of their patches has long since been replaced by primary sorting by post town and postcode. Sticking the county after an address adds nothing, doesn’t help the PO (RM) and in some circumstances could increase the chance of a missort.
    Yes, some people would put the wrong county on the address. As we have seen today!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Quincel said:

    The thumbnail is rather 'Mafia boss making public demands', isn't it?
    It looks like, initially, he’s being held hostage by ISIS and making the video under duress.
  • dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
    Postal "counties" were abolished in 1996.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Young Rashford is quite the charitable giver

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/11878415/marcus-rashford-charity-list-man-utd-stars-generous-acts/

    I'd ask why more wealthy people don't donate as much of their time and influences to good causes as he does.
    The man earns £1million per month, imagine that. He trains fours hours a day and plays once or twice a week. Thats it. Do you really think what is listed in that article equates to more than a monetary value of 1/2 day of his wages?
    Is this the 'politics of envy' that I've so often heard about from the Conservatives?
    I've always found the disdain for professional footballers to be rather unpleasant. They're probably paid more than is reasonable for a professional sportsman, but when Grayling gets paid thousands of quid a day to "advise" a transport company then I think that the footballers at least bring some joy to people.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Given their often very deprived background this sort of thing is more common than you might thing. At a minimum supporting extended friends and family, and I have read cases of African footballers effectively funding whole villages.

    Although your suggestion would leave him with a bit of a problem given probably about 500k has already gone to the Exchequer.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    In any case RM boundaries are not the county or even national ones. As Wiki says

    "The TD postcode area, also known as the Galashiels postcode area,[2] is a group of fifteen postcode districts in south-east Scotland and the far north-east of England, within seventeen post towns. These cover most of the Scottish Borders council area (including Galashiels, Lauder, Gordon, Earlston, Kelso, Melrose, Selkirk, Jedburgh, Hawick, Newcastleton, Duns, Coldstream, Cockburnspath and Eyemouth) and the northernmost part of Northumberland (including Berwick-upon-Tweed, Cornhill-on-Tweed and Mindrum), plus a part of south-eastern East Lothian and a very small part of Cumbria."
  • dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
    You are in danger of clouding the issue with facts.

    I mean, Rochdale Pioneers could just have looked Wikipedia.

    This is the opening sentence of the entry:

    Rochdale /ˈrɒtʃdeɪl/ is a large town in Greater Manchester, England,[1] at the foothills of the South Pennines in the dale on the River Roch, 5.3 miles (8.5 km) northwest of Oldham and 9.8 miles (15.8 km) northeast of Manchester.

    But this is PB.

    Lol are you townsplaining my home town to me?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Young Rashford is quite the charitable giver

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/11878415/marcus-rashford-charity-list-man-utd-stars-generous-acts/

    I'd ask why more wealthy people don't donate as much of their time and influences to good causes as he does.
    The man earns £1million per month, imagine that. He trains fours hours a day and plays once or twice a week. Thats it. Do you really think what is listed in that article equates to more than a monetary value of 1/2 day of his wages?
    Is this the 'politics of envy' that I've so often heard about from the Conservatives?
    At least he trains for it.

    Consider certain after dinner lecturers ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited October 2020
    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    alex_ said:

    26,688 new cases

    T3 everywhere but Devon and Cornwall incoming....
    Looks like turnaround times are improving, so less backdating. Specimen date still looks like a plateau.
    The specimen date always looks like a plateau when cases are rising, simply because recent dates are incomplete. That's why the specimen date is pretty useless for determining what is happening right now!

    The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date and project them forwards by 3 days.
    See above - depends on how much updating. I believe the turn-arounds are currently much improved. We are not out of the woods, but a combination of restrictions and fear is getting R to around 1.
    I think we'll need to wait for the next few days of data to see if that's true. If they've suddenly found the capacity to clear out 50000 tests sitting in the cupboard then you might expect a spike. Given lots of specimens from monday showed up but less at the weekend that suggests a backlog got cleared somewhere.

    HOWEVER, we'll need to wait for a few days to be sure of that.
    The peaks around the 6th and 14th are now baked into the specimen date data.

    image
    Does that imply the recent increase is due to faster turnaround or brown alert time?
    Anyone who panics over reporting day numbers is of interest to me - I have several bridges to sell and some Thames foreshore property for people to invest in and I'm always looking for buyers.

    The facts are these -

    - The graph above shows the actual cases by specimen date. This is stuff that actually happened, in the day it happened, as opposed to a somewhat random day when someone clicked "publish"
    - Testing is running in the order of 100K capacity higher than cases - the capacity problems are easing at the moment.

    The case numbers etc seem to add up to a considerable slowing in the growth of the epidemic.
  • IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Actually it is because primary sorting by county to secondary roads staffed by higher graded posties who knew the geography of their patches has long since been replaced by primary sorting by post town and postcode. Sticking the county after an address adds nothing, doesn’t help the PO (RM) and in some circumstances could increase the chance of a missort.
    Yes, some people would put the wrong county on the address. As we have seen today!!
    I don't. You don't put any county on any address.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
    Postal "counties" were abolished in 1996.
    Exactly, they don’t sort by counties any more.

    Machine sorted Mail is sorted exclusively by the postcode; if the scanner cannot find the postcode, an image of the letter is captured and it is held in a loop whilst the image is transmitted to one of three remote centres (Sunderland, Warrington and Plymouth as I recall) allowing a remote operator to identify the correct post town, this information being transmitted back to the local sorting machine. All of which usually happens in seconds.

    Manually sorted Mail is primary sorted by postcode or posttown; any that can’t be identified are blinded so that more expert staff can use their knowledge, or reference file, to sort it correctly. The risk with adding a county is that the primary sorter takes a guess at the correct post town and gets it wrong - there are lots of bits of country that are counter-intuitive (bits of Surrey in TN for Tonbridge, Kent for example). Secondary sorting works off items that are already primary sorted into postcodes, or groups of them.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.

    Lancashire?

    Were you here for the 'northerners are parochial' chat?

    I only ask because it was 'renamed' 46 years ago.
    Yes, I made the point that much of the north are parochial bigots.

    1. Chunks of Lancashire were given to GM. Lancastrians still called it Lancashire
    2. Greater Manchester was then abolished when I was 9. At which point it reverted to Lancashire
    3. Being born in Ashton-Under-Lyne I have the birthright (but not the talent) to play cricket for Lancashire. Because its Lancashire.

    The 1974 counties have largely gone. Thanks to later reorganisations we have wonders like York no longer being in North Yorkshire. So go back to the ceremonial counties. Its Lancashire.
    1. Correct and correct (they are wrong to do so though)
    2. Wrong. Rochdale hasn't been in Lancashire since 1974. From 1986, it beysideecame a met borough within the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities. It is now part of the GM mayoralty.
    3. Correct and wrong

    The ceremonial county is Greater Manchester.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England
    There is a long-standing dispute in chess circles, reminiscent of Jarndyce v Jarndyce, dating back to the 1970s local government re-organisation. Up to then the Northern Counties Chess Union consisted of Lancashire, Yorkshire, Northumberland, Durham, Cumbria and Cheshire. As you would expect, Lancashire and Yorkshire were "top dogs".
    But in 1975 a group of GM (that's Greater Manchester, not Grandmaster) players decided to set up a Greater Manchester Chess Federation. The NCCU, particular Lancashire, were having none of it, so the (Greater) Manchester Chess Federation play in the Midland Counties Chess Union !
    Curiously there are now separate Lancashire and Merseyside federations, but still a united Yorkshire one.
    I don’t think you quite do the dispute justice. Including the court cases and everything else. I think it also might be true that the main protagonist on the Lancashire side died recently put made provisions in his will to ensure the whole dispute continued ...
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    *BRAZIL VOLUNTEER IN ASTRAZENECA VACCINE TRIAL HAS DIED: REUTERS

    This is depressing if true :(
  • IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Actually it is because primary sorting by county to secondary roads staffed by higher graded posties who knew the geography of their patches has long since been replaced by primary sorting by post town and postcode. Sticking the county after an address adds nothing, doesn’t help the PO (RM) and in some circumstances could increase the chance of a missort.
    Yes, some people would put the wrong county on the address. As we have seen today!!
    I don't. You don't put any county on any address.
    If you missed off the post code, where would a letter addressed to "Newport" end up without including the county?
  • Roger said:

    Omnium said:

    Someone check on Horse - that could push him over the edge...
    Not in the least surprised SKS is very poor
    More likely a Burnham effect.
    Except its Friday to Sunday last week.

    Labs position is all over the place TBH

    Next years LE are very important.

    Boris is also more likeable
    I bet you like Farage too.
    It's all the rage.

    'And, surprisingly, the former hellraiser confesses he’s also become a
    fan of Brexit architect Nigel Farage.

    He adds: “I’ve been going back on his EU conversations. The way he
    sarky-b*****ed it to them. He’s bang on and a comedian with it too.

    “I’m really beginning to love and respect him. Odd isn’t it? Common
    sense makes strange bedfellows.”'

    https://tinyurl.com/yyul6zdf
  • dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Yup. This is the full and correct postal address for Wigan Council direct from Royal Mail.

    Wigan Council
    Civic Centre
    Millgate
    WIGAN
    WN1 1AZ
    You are in danger of clouding the issue with facts.

    I mean, Rochdale Pioneers could just have looked Wikipedia.

    This is the opening sentence of the entry:

    Rochdale /ˈrɒtʃdeɪl/ is a large town in Greater Manchester, England,[1] at the foothills of the South Pennines in the dale on the River Roch, 5.3 miles (8.5 km) northwest of Oldham and 9.8 miles (15.8 km) northeast of Manchester.

    But this is PB.

    I mean yes, but the Newcastle upon Tyne Wikipedia page says that the city is part of some fairytale place called "Tyne and Wear" and we all know that is fanciful.
    Fanciful or not, they are useful terms for a pair of items that commonly appear together, like needle and thread or wattle and daub, although each does have an independent meaning.

    A 'tyne' is a small, fiddly component which drops on the floor when you are trying to fix something. A 'wear' is the large immovable object it rolls under.

    [Ack: Douglas Adams - The Meaning of Liff.]
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    You might think Johnson is having trouble, but in Ireland the Taoiseach had to learn from the Irish Times that his contact tracing system had been overwhelmed by demand.

    One does wonder what the politicians are doing when the fundamental system for controlling the pandemic can collapse without their knowledge.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1021/1172969-leaders-questions/
  • *BRAZIL VOLUNTEER IN ASTRAZENECA VACCINE TRIAL HAS DIED: REUTERS

    This is depressing if true :(

    GDBO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Pretty sensible conclusion. Few places looking long term, public more mature than commentators, but surprisingly forgiving too.

    Cannot see any of that changing just yet, but this next phase might lead to it, as more and more (though not yet) people will start to push back on short term issues. Not with their own long term solutions, but that pushback may force it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    I applied MaxPB's formula to hospital admissions and got -

    image
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    alex_ said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    It's almost like Rashford is actually quite a nice, decent sort who wants kids to not have to go through what he did, and he's up against a bunch of Scrooges whose only defense is "But Labour..."
    Then why doesn't he just take £100,000 per month and donate the remaining £900,000 to lower income households in Manchester.
    Given their often very deprived background this sort of thing is more common than you might thing. At a minimum supporting extended friends and family, and I have read cases of African footballers effectively funding whole villages.

    Although your suggestion would leave him with a bit of a problem given probably about 500k has already gone to the Exchequer.
    Yes, Sadio Mane funds a load of projects in Senegal, for example.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700

    *BRAZIL VOLUNTEER IN ASTRAZENECA VACCINE TRIAL HAS DIED: REUTERS

    This is depressing if true :(

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318962795363373058
  • IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Wigan's official postal address is Wigan, Lancs.
    This never changed.

    Nope.

    What the Royal Mail says is also irrelevant as they don't set county boundaries.

    However, there is no county at all in Wigan's official postal address (or in any addresses – probably to stop daft parochialism like that witnessed today)
    Actually it is because primary sorting by county to secondary roads staffed by higher graded posties who knew the geography of their patches has long since been replaced by primary sorting by post town and postcode. Sticking the county after an address adds nothing, doesn’t help the PO (RM) and in some circumstances could increase the chance of a missort.
    Yes, some people would put the wrong county on the address. As we have seen today!!
    I don't. You don't put any county on any address.
    If you missed off the post code, where would a letter addressed to "Newport" end up without including the county?
    Rhode Island?
This discussion has been closed.