Careful exegesis of these words will show them to be entirely consistent with the essentials of the traditional Roman Catholic position. It neither endorses or permits homosexual sexual activity or marriage.
I'd say it does endorse the carnal side of it.
I think it does (but deniably); it is implicit in saying people can have a civil union, that they are allowed a bit more than hand-holding. Not sure what they are "legally covered" against, though. The Inquisition?
That's what happens....all you need is a firebrand like Burnham and the whole Party comes alive!
Thinking about other Labour election winners, isn't their formula for success a "respectable" leader, firebrands in the team and mutual respect and understanding of their roles between the two?
Yes - Rayner should be to Starmer what Prescott was to Blair, and I think will be - in both cases, rougher at the edges but very loyal. And Nandy should be let off the leash more often - she can do 'I'm really cross about...." rather well.
The other element seems to be the economic big beast - Labour gained power under Callaghan, Healey and Brown as ShadChans. I know much less of 1945, but perhaps the more indirect influence and role of Keynes played their part?
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
They are both in Greater Manchester and have been for almost half a century.
Essential reading on the non-magic-bullet nature of vaccines. "If politicians are telling us that the present impositions on our lives are only going to last until we have vaccines, then the reality is that a false hope is being promulgated."
Absolutely true, but if the vaccine takes the incidence down and reduces the severity then normal life approaches, albeit some stuff might take a while to get closer to normal.
Also, it's mostly talking about targeted (which for sure, is what will happen to start with) versus mass vaccination. But if a mass vaccination programme is what it takes to get back to normal then that's what we'll get - the economic costs of not getting back to normal are so vast that it's hard to imagine a price at which a reasonably effective vaccine would not be cost effective. On reluctance to take a vaccine, having lockdowns of varying severity as the alternative should focus minds too. It will of course take some time - it is right to say that this won't be all over as soon as the first vaccines start to become available.
Essential reading on the non-magic-bullet nature of vaccines. "If politicians are telling us that the present impositions on our lives are only going to last until we have vaccines, then the reality is that a false hope is being promulgated."
There's a balancing act between the harm inflicted by Covid, and the harm created by non pharmaceutical interventions intended to reduce the spread of Covid.
At the moment there seems to be a consensus in favour of continued restrictions. There's a possibility, surely, that a vaccine (even one with limited effectiveness and take-up) will tip the balance. The author doesn't appear to entertain that possibility.
It seems clear public opinion is already shifting slowly, and that will surely continue as government support tapers off (assuming no U-turn from Sunak) and the long term impact of restrictions on the economy and society becomes clear.
Reminds me of a concept in Health and Safety Law - ALARP: risk should be reduced to a level considered "As Low as Reasonably Practicable". Of course, what is reasonable and practicable is subjective.
But the balance will tip back without fail every time there is an uptick in cases/deaths because people are not at heart utilitarians. They think "Preventable deaths! Prevent them at all costs!" not "if you do the math, there is is a net saving of life down the line if you leave things be."
President Trump’s re-election campaign committee ended September with only $63.1 million in the bank despite canceling some television buys late last month, leaving him badly outmatched financially against Joseph R. Biden Jr., who reported $177.3 million in cash on hand for the final stretch of the campaign
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
They are both in Greater Manchester and have been for almost half a century.
Get over it.
Next you’ll be telling me Newcastle isn’t in Northumberland, and Birmingham not in Warwickshire?
Data release looks very interesting today. Swab to processing lag looks like it's gone down a lot or the data for Monday is absolutely horrific.
That was noticeable yesterday. But the numbers look bad.
Monday looks bad but Friday and the weekend don't, especially if we're down to 1-2 day reporting lag vs 5 days we've been used to for the last couple of months.
We've had the following state polls today so far, that are all very good for Biden.
Civiqs Florida Biden 51% Trump 47%
Civiqs Nevada Biden 52% Trump 43%
Suffolk University Pennsylvania Biden 49% Trump 42%
Yes, it's a generally good polling day for Biden.
Did we ever get to the bottom of the IBD Tipp methodology? It's the same as yesterday I think?
To quote IBD's own explanation
'The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,162 registered and 1,016 likely voters, from Oct. 16 through Oct. 120. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 375 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 289 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.'
So todays poll is based on the 200 registered voters they sampled and each day for the next 4 days they will do a new 200 (until all 1000 have been done) so the % we see each day is the 200 for that day (so todays on 538 is for the 20th)
So each daily poll has a sample size of 200, or do they top up their sample to 1,000 with older samples?
The 45 - 64 sample being less Trumper than the 65+ sample looks sui generis to me. I know Biden is doing well with seniors but I'd still expect a broad rightwing drift as people get older.
The demographics I've seen indicate that Trump is more popular amongst the middle aged than he is amongst the elderly. Which surprised me a bit.
We've had the following state polls today so far, that are all very good for Biden.
Civiqs Florida Biden 51% Trump 47%
Civiqs Nevada Biden 52% Trump 43%
Suffolk University Pennsylvania Biden 49% Trump 42%
Yes, it's a generally good polling day for Biden.
Did we ever get to the bottom of the IBD Tipp methodology? It's the same as yesterday I think?
To quote IBD's own explanation
'The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,162 registered and 1,016 likely voters, from Oct. 16 through Oct. 120. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 375 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 289 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.'
So todays poll is based on the 200 registered voters they sampled and each day for the next 4 days they will do a new 200 (until all 1000 have been done) so the % we see each day is the 200 for that day (so todays on 538 is for the 20th)
So each daily poll has a sample size of 200, or do they top up their sample to 1,000 with older samples?
The 45 - 64 sample being less Trumper than the 65+ sample looks sui generis to me. I know Biden is doing well with seniors but I'd still expect a broad rightwing drift as people get older.
The demographics I've seen indicate that Trump is more popular amongst the middle aged than he is amongst the elderly. Which surprised me a bit.
It is not that surprising, Biden is the oldest party nominee for a Presidential election ever at 77 and OAPs tend to prefer one of their own if given the choice.
Biden still does best with under 35s as the Democrats normally do however and Trump leads with 35 to 65s
If a deal is achieved, and the reality of it isn't that bad next year, a vaccine comes through next Spring, and then the Gover starts using the new post-Brexit regulatory powers to push through some popular reforms then.. where do Labour go from there?
Data release looks very interesting today. Swab to processing lag looks like it's gone down a lot or the data for Monday is absolutely horrific.
That was noticeable yesterday. But the numbers look bad.
Monday looks bad but Friday and the weekend don't, especially if we're down to 1-2 day reporting lag vs 5 days we've been used to for the last couple of months.
Ah sorry, see what you mean now, disregard my last post. Did they open a new lab or get a bunch of extra capacity online?
Data release looks very interesting today. Swab to processing lag looks like it's gone down a lot or the data for Monday is absolutely horrific.
That was noticeable yesterday. But the numbers look bad.
Scotland reported processing delays over the weekend. I wonder if that was true around the country as well.
If anything England has had a big increase in processing speed. I do wonder whether it's a reduction in lag or cases actually just being terrible or a bit of both.
If a deal is achieved, and the reality of it isn't that bad next year, a vaccine comes through next Spring, and then the Gover starts using the new post-Brexit regulatory powers to push through some popular reforms then.. where do Labour go from there?
Well they'll have to cross that bridge to Ireland when they come to it.
PB Tories simply cannot oppose Khan on economic grounds when Johnson did such a piss poor job
Johnson no longer does us the favour of being "disingenuous". He just lies.
"no longer"? Dishonesty is in his DNA. He has always lied and always will. He is disingenuous even by the low standard of the people he surrounds himself with.
All true. But I sense he is getting more blatant about it. The Trump playbook. You hate to see it here.
For those wondering why IBD's national poll may be closing as much as it is towards Trump, this is the main reason they give. Does sound plausible, perhaps?
Trump Poll Comeback May Reflect Issue Focus Recent presidential elections have been fought mainly over which candidate's economic policies are better. This year features a broader issue landscape, with a once-in-a-century pandemic, nationwide protests against racial injustice and a Supreme Court nomination that promises a major ideological shift.
The latest IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds that the single most-important issue for voters is the economy (named by 32% of likely voters), followed by the coronavirus response (19%), health care (13%), law and order (12%), race relations (9%) and the Supreme Court (6%).
There's a clear divide between Biden and Trump voters over which set of issues matter most, notes TIPP President Raghavan Mayur.
Voters selecting the economy as the top issue back Trump, 57%-17%. Trump also leads among voters most concerned about law and order (68%-14%) and the Supreme Court (58%-23%).
Biden leads among voters most concerned about the coronavirus response (70%-12%), health care (54%-21%) and race relations (74%-6%).
"The number of voters who think Trump issues (economy, law and order, and Supreme Court) are important exceeds those who think Biden issues are important (COVID, health care, and race relations)," Mayur said.
The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows that voters' priorities have shifted over the past 10 days. Now Trump issues are the No. 1 issue for 50% of voters, while Biden issues are the top concern of 41% of voters. On Oct. 12, that split was 47% Trump issues and 44% Biden issues.
That shift "is propelling the change" in the Trump vs. Biden race, Mayur believes.
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
They are both in Greater Manchester and have been for almost half a century.
Get over it.
Next you’ll be telling me Newcastle isn’t in Northumberland, and Birmingham not in Warwickshire?
Essential reading on the non-magic-bullet nature of vaccines. "If politicians are telling us that the present impositions on our lives are only going to last until we have vaccines, then the reality is that a false hope is being promulgated."
There's a balancing act between the harm inflicted by Covid, and the harm created by non pharmaceutical interventions intended to reduce the spread of Covid.
At the moment there seems to be a consensus in favour of continued restrictions. There's a possibility, surely, that a vaccine (even one with limited effectiveness and take-up) will tip the balance. The author doesn't appear to entertain that possibility.
It seems clear public opinion is already shifting slowly, and that will surely continue as government support tapers off (assuming no U-turn from Sunak) and the long term impact of restrictions on the economy and society becomes clear.
Reminds me of a concept in Health and Safety Law - ALARP: risk should be reduced to a level considered "As Low as Reasonably Practicable". Of course, what is reasonable and practicable is subjective.
But the balance will tip back without fail every time there is an uptick in cases/deaths because people are not at heart utilitarians. They think "Preventable deaths! Prevent them at all costs!" not "if you do the math, there is is a net saving of life down the line if you leave things be."
That doesn't seem to be the case for many other sources of preventable deaths in society that go unremarked. I admit that the continued media focus on Covid deaths makes it kind of inevitable though. Every death is of course a tragedy, 200+ deaths recorded yesterday gave me pause for thought even though I accept that in the scheme of things (c. 10,000 deaths a month) it isn't so material. So yeah, no easy answers I guess.
We've had the following state polls today so far, that are all very good for Biden.
Civiqs Florida Biden 51% Trump 47%
Civiqs Nevada Biden 52% Trump 43%
Suffolk University Pennsylvania Biden 49% Trump 42%
Yes, it's a generally good polling day for Biden.
Did we ever get to the bottom of the IBD Tipp methodology? It's the same as yesterday I think?
To quote IBD's own explanation
'The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,162 registered and 1,016 likely voters, from Oct. 16 through Oct. 120. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 375 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 289 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.'
So todays poll is based on the 200 registered voters they sampled and each day for the next 4 days they will do a new 200 (until all 1000 have been done) so the % we see each day is the 200 for that day (so todays on 538 is for the 20th)
So each daily poll has a sample size of 200, or do they top up their sample to 1,000 with older samples?
The 45 - 64 sample being less Trumper than the 65+ sample looks sui generis to me. I know Biden is doing well with seniors but I'd still expect a broad rightwing drift as people get older.
The demographics I've seen indicate that Trump is more popular amongst the middle aged than he is amongst the elderly. Which surprised me a bit.
Middle aged pay (relatively) most attention to the economy. Remember in the US they are far more active in the stock market, and anyone tech heavy will have done exceptionally well this decade, and those following the indices still very well.
If a deal is achieved, and the reality of it isn't that bad next year, a vaccine comes through next Spring, and then the Gover starts using the new post-Brexit regulatory powers to push through some popular reforms then.. where do Labour go from there?
Gove and popular don’t go together. He’s more of a Tory version of Gordon Brown, endlessly looking for new dividing lines.
Data release looks very interesting today. Swab to processing lag looks like it's gone down a lot or the data for Monday is absolutely horrific.
That was noticeable yesterday. But the numbers look bad.
Monday looks bad but Friday and the weekend don't, especially if we're down to 1-2 day reporting lag vs 5 days we've been used to for the last couple of months.
Ah sorry, see what you mean now, disregard my last post. Did they open a new lab or get a bunch of extra capacity online?
So, the administration that brought you the FACT message (which is being supplemented by the UK's govt's "Hands Face Space" message because no one understands it as its too complicated) now brings you a threeFIVE tier system because that's .....simpler and easier to understand?
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.
Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
We've had the following state polls today so far, that are all very good for Biden.
Civiqs Florida Biden 51% Trump 47%
Civiqs Nevada Biden 52% Trump 43%
Suffolk University Pennsylvania Biden 49% Trump 42%
Yes, it's a generally good polling day for Biden.
Did we ever get to the bottom of the IBD Tipp methodology? It's the same as yesterday I think?
To quote IBD's own explanation
'The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,162 registered and 1,016 likely voters, from Oct. 16 through Oct. 120. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 375 Democrats, 340 Republicans and 289 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.'
So todays poll is based on the 200 registered voters they sampled and each day for the next 4 days they will do a new 200 (until all 1000 have been done) so the % we see each day is the 200 for that day (so todays on 538 is for the 20th)
So each daily poll has a sample size of 200, or do they top up their sample to 1,000 with older samples?
The 45 - 64 sample being less Trumper than the 65+ sample looks sui generis to me. I know Biden is doing well with seniors but I'd still expect a broad rightwing drift as people get older.
The demographics I've seen indicate that Trump is more popular amongst the middle aged than he is amongst the elderly. Which surprised me a bit.
There's an article that I can't now find (I think it was Harry Enten) who pointed out that the drift of the senior vote away from Trump has been happening for a while. There's been some suggestions as to why, but I find the healthcare angle to be the most plausible.
Despite what Casino said earlier, there is money being made on the £ today. Markets clearly sniff a deal in the offing.
Even if they do it doesn't mean there is a deal in the offing; the currency markets have called several things badly wrong in recent years and I'd caution anyone in 'following' them.
That said I was clear in my view last week that all the Punch and Judy was carefully choreographed to create the political space for a deal to be signed on both sides of the channel and I still expect there to be one.
A Deal is virtually certain. I wish Betfair had a market on it.
and eyeballing, there's a hopeful looking kink to something slower around October 1, but then the growth takes off again. What's that about?
What could easily have happened is the the University students caused a massive spike which is unwinding at the same time as the consequential growth is happening in other age groups. The university decline has been masking the growth giving an impression that the position is stable.
So, the administration that brought you the FACT message (which is being supplemented by the UK's govt's "Hands Face Space" message because no one understands it as its too complicated) now brings you a threeFIVE tier system because that's .....simpler and easier to understand?
It's no harder to understand and gives you higher tiers that you can announce in advance as "Oh shit" buttons. This feels like a weird argument to make. Most people can count to five.
and eyeballing, there's a hopeful looking kink to something slower around October 1, but then the growth takes off again. What's that about?
What could easily have happened is the the University students caused a massive spike which is unwinding at the same time as the consequential growth is happening in other age groups. The university decline has been masking the growth giving an impression that the position is stable.
That's what the "Heat Maps" suggest. Big spike in people unlikely to get seriously ill, followed by steady growth in more vulnerable demographics.
So, the administration that brought you the FACT message (which is being supplemented by the UK's govt's "Hands Face Space" message because no one understands it as its too complicated) now brings you a threeFIVE tier system because that's .....simpler and easier to understand?
It's no harder to understand and gives you higher tiers that you can announce in advance as "Oh shit" buttons. This feels like a weird argument to make. Most people can count to five.
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.
Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
Yawn. They are all in Greater Manchester. Regardless of the views of some parochial numpties.
So, the administration that brought you the FACT message (which is being supplemented by the UK's govt's "Hands Face Space" message because no one understands it as its too complicated) now brings you a threeFIVE tier system because that's .....simpler and easier to understand?
It's no harder to understand and gives you higher tiers that you can announce in advance as "Oh shit" buttons. This feels like a weird argument to make. Most people can count to five.
The Scottish government has a track (see "FACT") of over complicating things (so they're not the same as England?). "Because New Zealand did it" does not seem an enormously persuasive argument given the dramatically different trajectories in the two countries.
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Lancashire?
Were you here for the 'northerners are parochial' chat?
I only ask because it was 'renamed' 46 years ago.
Yes, I made the point that much of the north are parochial bigots.
1. Chunks of Lancashire were given to GM. Lancastrians still called it Lancashire 2. Greater Manchester was then abolished when I was 9. At which point it reverted to Lancashire 3. Being born in Ashton-Under-Lyne I have the birthright (but not the talent) to play cricket for Lancashire. Because its Lancashire.
The 1974 counties have largely gone. Thanks to later reorganisations we have wonders like York no longer being in North Yorkshire. So go back to the ceremonial counties. Its Lancashire.
So, the administration that brought you the FACT message (which is being supplemented by the UK's govt's "Hands Face Space" message because no one understands it as its too complicated) now brings you a threeFIVE tier system because that's .....simpler and easier to understand?
It's no harder to understand and gives you higher tiers that you can announce in advance as "Oh shit" buttons. This feels like a weird argument to make. Most people can count to five.
The Scottish government has a track (see "FACT") of over complicating things (so they're not the same as England?). "Because New Zealand did it" does not seem an enormously persuasive argument given the dramatically different trajectories in the two countries.
It sounds more persuasive than "because England did it", though
Lol despite all the endless wailing and gnashing of teeth from the left on social media, Boris is still 6% ahead.
Time to dial it up to 11.
One ought not to celebrate the public not yet managing to see through a conman and punish him for his shameless mendacity and astonishing incompetence.
It is a matter of great concern and anxiety for all people of sound mind and good character.
Data release looks very interesting today. Swab to processing lag looks like it's gone down a lot or the data for Monday is absolutely horrific.
That was noticeable yesterday. But the numbers look bad.
Monday looks bad but Friday and the weekend don't, especially if we're down to 1-2 day reporting lag vs 5 days we've been used to for the last couple of months.
Ah sorry, see what you mean now, disregard my last post. Did they open a new lab or get a bunch of extra capacity online?
There is much more capacity today. Turn-round much improved.
Lol despite all the endless wailing and gnashing of teeth from the left on social media, Boris is still 6% ahead.
Time to dial it up to 11.
One ought not to celebrate the public not yet managing to see through a conman and punish him for his shameless mendacity and astonishing incompetence.
It is a matter of great concern and anxiety for all people of sound mind and good character.
The only opinion polls that matter much til 2024 are those of Tory MPs and they will be kept private.
By then this govt will live or fall based on its performance and delivery not its words and promises. We shall see.
If a deal is achieved, and the reality of it isn't that bad next year, a vaccine comes through next Spring, and then the Gover starts using the new post-Brexit regulatory powers to push through some popular reforms then.. where do Labour go from there?
You have sold it to me. Johnson's Conservative Government will have had an awesome year by next March, what with Brexit and managing the pandemic. Lucky jobs won't be lost and homes repossessed on an industrial scale over the next three years.
Someone check on Horse - that could push him over the edge...
Not in the least surprised SKS is very poor
More likely a Burnham effect.
Except its Friday to Sunday last week.
Labs position is all over the place TBH
Next years LE are very important.
Boris is also more likeable
The county elections are next year and even on today's Comres Labour should make gains given it was Tories 38%, Labour 27% and LDs 18% in the last county elections in 2017. Labour should also make further gains in the London Assembly based on the London poll today.
The Tories might make a few gains in the District elections postponed until next year though as in 2016 it was Labour 31%, Tories 30% and LDs 15% and UKIP 12% when they were last up.
Data release looks very interesting today. Swab to processing lag looks like it's gone down a lot or the data for Monday is absolutely horrific.
That was noticeable yesterday. But the numbers look bad.
Monday looks bad but Friday and the weekend don't, especially if we're down to 1-2 day reporting lag vs 5 days we've been used to for the last couple of months.
Bother! It does look like r about 1.3, like the actuaries thought.
Can that possibly be true? Have the chairmen of the pb.com science committee not repeatedly explained that the r was already strongly trending down towards 1 sometime in the past, and probably be already below 1 by now?
Ewww: "After she removes his microphone, Giuliani, 76, can be seen lying back on the bed, fiddling with his untucked shirt and reaching into his trousers. They are then interrupted by Borat who runs in and says: “She’s 15. She’s too old for you.”
Looks like turnaround times are improving, so less backdating. Specimen date still looks like a plateau.
The specimen date always looks like a plateau when cases are rising, simply because recent dates are incomplete. That's why the specimen date is pretty useless for determining what is happening right now!
The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date for the last few days and project them forwards by 3 days.
The Scottish Tier 3 eq measures do seem to be having an effect. Ed now well <1. That might be because the big student population spike somehow avoided getting too deep into the community but I'm not too sure.
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Lancashire?
Were you here for the 'northerners are parochial' chat?
I only ask because it was 'renamed' 46 years ago.
Yes, I made the point that much of the north are parochial bigots.
1. Chunks of Lancashire were given to GM. Lancastrians still called it Lancashire 2. Greater Manchester was then abolished when I was 9. At which point it reverted to Lancashire 3. Being born in Ashton-Under-Lyne I have the birthright (but not the talent) to play cricket for Lancashire. Because its Lancashire.
The 1974 counties have largely gone. Thanks to later reorganisations we have wonders like York no longer being in North Yorkshire. So go back to the ceremonial counties. Its Lancashire.
1. Correct and correct (they are wrong to do so though) 2. Wrong. Rochdale hasn't been in Lancashire since 1974. From 1986, it became a met borough within the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities. It is now part of the GM mayoralty. 3. Correct and wrong
I know I'm from Lancashire (or "Greater Manchester" as chunks of it have now been renamed). But even I find it a little off-putting to hear Rayner mutter "scum" in that accent.
Well, she is Chesher (as opposed to Chesh-ire) after all.
Indeed. 6 miles separate Manchester City Centre and Stockport Town Centre. One is Lancashire. The other is Cheshire darling. None of this Greater Manchester nonsense.
Those council areas who would mainly identify as Mancunian = Manchester, Salford (except for hardcore Salfordians in M3, M4), Trafford, Tameside, Stockport (but please put Cheshire, Lancashire on the latter two's post for SK & OL postcodes). 0161 a decent arbiter for self-identification.
Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
My Grandad lived in M6 and was categorically a Salfordian. Absolutely agree with you on postcodes. OL, BL, WN are Lancashire every day of the week.
Looks like turnaround times are improving, so less backdating. Specimen date still looks like a plateau.
The specimen date always looks like a plateau when cases are rising, simply because recent dates are incomplete. That's why the specimen date is pretty useless for determining what is happening right now!
The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date and project them forwards by 3 days.
See above - depends on how much updating. I believe the turn-arounds are currently much improved. We are not out of the woods, but a combination of restrictions and fear is getting R to around 1.
Bother! It does look like r about 1.3, like the actuaries thought.
Can that possibly be true? Have the chairmen of the pb.com science committee not repeatedly explained that the r was already strongly trending down towards 1 sometime in the past, and probably be already below 1 by now?
Chris and Sir Patrick correct. Toby and Julia, not so much. Quel surprise.
Comments
Electoral calculus gives Tories 337, Labour 226, LDs 6
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=42&LAB=36&LIB=8&Brexit=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
Get over it.
NYTimes
Labs position is all over the place TBH
Next years LE are very important.
Boris is also more likeable
Biden still does best with under 35s as the Democrats normally do however and Trump leads with 35 to 65s
More alarmingly, looking at their graph (NB this is the total number are infected on any one day)
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time
and eyeballing, there's a hopeful looking kink to something slower around October 1, but then the growth takes off again. What's that about?
Trump Poll Comeback May Reflect Issue Focus
Recent presidential elections have been fought mainly over which candidate's economic policies are better. This year features a broader issue landscape, with a once-in-a-century pandemic, nationwide protests against racial injustice and a Supreme Court nomination that promises a major ideological shift.
The latest IBD/TIPP presidential poll finds that the single most-important issue for voters is the economy (named by 32% of likely voters), followed by the coronavirus response (19%), health care (13%), law and order (12%), race relations (9%) and the Supreme Court (6%).
There's a clear divide between Biden and Trump voters over which set of issues matter most, notes TIPP President Raghavan Mayur.
Voters selecting the economy as the top issue back Trump, 57%-17%. Trump also leads among voters most concerned about law and order (68%-14%) and the Supreme Court (58%-23%).
Biden leads among voters most concerned about the coronavirus response (70%-12%), health care (54%-21%) and race relations (74%-6%).
"The number of voters who think Trump issues (economy, law and order, and Supreme Court) are important exceeds those who think Biden issues are important (COVID, health care, and race relations)," Mayur said.
The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows that voters' priorities have shifted over the past 10 days. Now Trump issues are the No. 1 issue for 50% of voters, while Biden issues are the top concern of 41% of voters. On Oct. 12, that split was 47% Trump issues and 44% Biden issues.
That shift "is propelling the change" in the Trump vs. Biden race, Mayur believes.
That is madness
Tottenham is not in Middlesex.
The smelling salts are on the back of a drone.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1318905206634123264?s=20
Those who would mainly identify as Lancastrian: Oldham, Rochdale, Bury (with a little blurring the closer you get to MCR in those three), Bolton and (why the hell are we even in Greater Manchester) Wigan.
Adjusting for that gives Labour a lead of 2 points. So - great news.
It is madness employee and employer contributions should be about equal
Looks like it was worse under Boris
https://www.london.gov.uk/questions/system/files/attachments/Appendix 1 - MQ20172245_13.jpg
1. Chunks of Lancashire were given to GM. Lancastrians still called it Lancashire
2. Greater Manchester was then abolished when I was 9. At which point it reverted to Lancashire
3. Being born in Ashton-Under-Lyne I have the birthright (but not the talent) to play cricket for Lancashire. Because its Lancashire.
The 1974 counties have largely gone. Thanks to later reorganisations we have wonders like York no longer being in North Yorkshire. So go back to the ceremonial counties. Its Lancashire.
It is a matter of great concern and anxiety for all people of sound mind and good character.
For the accrued liabilities they don’t have any choice.
They can reduce future liabilities by closing the scheme either to new joiners or to all future service.
SKS isn't doing too badly, but Labour seems very LD at the moment (and I don't mean that in a good way).
By then this govt will live or fall based on its performance and delivery not its words and promises. We shall see.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1318948991246213123?s=20
By specimen day looks like this
The Tories might make a few gains in the District elections postponed until next year though as in 2016 it was Labour 31%, Tories 30% and LDs 15% and UKIP 12% when they were last up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_local_elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Today is
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/21-03-2020/pm-ardern-announces-four-tier-covid-19-alert-system-as-nz-faces-community-spread/
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/oct/21/rudy-giuliani-faces-questions-after-compromising-scene-in-new-borat-film
Still a six point poll lead across the UK suggests enough people are happy with the Government's performance, so what do I know?
The best estimate of the current status is, I think, to take the 7-day smoothed figures by reporting date for the last few days and project them forwards by 3 days.
2. Wrong. Rochdale hasn't been in Lancashire since 1974. From 1986, it became a met borough within the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities. It is now part of the GM mayoralty.
3. Correct and wrong
The ceremonial county is Greater Manchester.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_counties_of_England