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The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnouts – politicalbetting.com

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  • I wonder how connected we are digitally causes equivalent of a local lockdown naturally....when Bob tests positive for COVID, everybody in the whatsapps groups, Facebook friends etc will know.

    You hear a number of those stories and lots of people will think twice about doing certains things

    It's the 'there's been an outbreak at my kids school' that seems to be driving a de facto lockdown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Not going to help her chances.

    Trump blasts Susan Collins over SCOTUS amid reelection fight
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/trump-susan-collins-scotus-reelection-fight-429799

    Actually, it just might help her with Maine-iac Democrats who voted for her in the past, but who are doubtful they can do so again.

    Here in WA State we have a somewhat similar situation with Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who has received many Democratic votes in the past, the secret to her electoral success in the blue Evergreen State.

    Note that she's currently being hammered on TV by her Democratic opponent as a Trumpkyite. AND that in leadup to election Wyman got a lot of support from national Democratic circles as a Republican state election official who defended postal voting (at least in WA).
    I think that ship sailed for Collins some time back.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:
    Actually in Tier 2 I believe you are legally allowed to share a car with someone outside your bubble, it’s just not recommended. So it’s perfectly legal to have sex in a car.
  • Quincel said:

    This should be used in lectures on bad data visualisations.


    My God, have they hired Alistair Hames?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719
    HYUFD said:

    Allowed if you are in a support bubble though or 1 is in a Tier 1 area and you stay there
    So is it a 🥂🎻 🍆 date night?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Jonathan said:

    Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.

    No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
    A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.

    BFD.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Reads like an Instagram breakup. I wonder if they’ve stopped following eachother?
    Looks like the fat lady has sung.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1317135797120864256
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell.

    "TfL staff prepare for shutdown of Tube, bus and train network THIS WEEKEND as Sadiq Khan refuses £1bn government bailout over demand he extends £15 congestion zone to north and south circulars and charges all under 18s for travel

    Londoners are braced for the capital's transport system to grind to a halt this weekend as cash-strapped TfL burns through the last of its funding. Eleventh-hour talks for a £1billion bailout between ministers and Sadiq Khan have stalled because of sticking points involving the Government's conditions for a deal. The Mayor is understood to be refusing to sign up to an expansion of the congestion zone to the North and South Circulars, which he said would punish Londoners already facing new Tier 2 Covid-19 restrictions."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8847025/London-Tube-train-bus-staff-told-prepare-total-SHUTDOWN.html

    £15 per day to use the car anywhere in London, wont be popular!
    Bloody Tories, first they opposed the congestion charge, then they opposed its extension to Kensington, now they want everyone in London to pay it. They can go fuck themselves.
    I guess the calculation is that the only Tory seat inside the North Circular apart from Westminster and K&C is Finchley.
    I'm getting sick of these people punishing anyone who doesn't vote for them, it's disgusting.
    Once Scotland leaves, the independence for London campaign will take off.
    On what grounds? There is not even a London independence party and the London economy depends on commuters coming from the Home Counties which has currently dried up.

    Though of course a UK free of Scotland and London would see almost permanent Tory rule
    No such thing as a UK free of Scotland. Only one kingdom to unite with itself, remember?
    Not true, Northern Ireland is still the remainder of the Act of Union with Ireland, the UK would only cease to exist if Scotland and Northern Ireland left in which case it would be the Kingdom of England and Wales
    OH, then whyt is it called the Province?

    You could just as well argue that it's the United Kingdom of England and France because the Engs kept their paws on a few bits of France (where Carlotta lives).
    Well arguably it was until Joan of Arc recaptured most of it for France and then Mary Tudor lost Calais
    Channel Islands. I did say Carlotta ...
    There was never a formal Act of Union with the Channel Islands as there was with Ireland and the monarch was never crowned King of the Channel Islands as they were of France either
    They had to keep it out so they had a tax haven close to home for their dirty money.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Quincel said:

    This should be used in lectures on bad data visualisations.


    My God, have they hired Alistair Hames?
    I don't see a seventh-order polynomial on there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    dixiedean said:

    Dogging season just got extended.

    Probably the reason that Essex got lumped in with London
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Not going to help her chances.

    Trump blasts Susan Collins over SCOTUS amid reelection fight
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/trump-susan-collins-scotus-reelection-fight-429799

    Actually, it just might help her with Maine-iac Democrats who voted for her in the past, but who are doubtful they can do so again.

    Here in WA State we have a somewhat similar situation with Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who has received many Democratic votes in the past, the secret to her electoral success in the blue Evergreen State.

    Note that she's currently being hammered on TV by her Democratic opponent as a Trumpkyite. AND that in leadup to election Wyman got a lot of support from national Democratic circles as a Republican state election official who defended postal voting (at least in WA).
    I think that ship sailed for Collins some time back.
    Reckon you are correct, but then hope does spring eternal in the poliltico!

    My point is that some GOPers stand to benefit electorally by being attacked by Trumpsky.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    alex_ said:

    isam said:
    The politicians and scientists, either keen on new restrictions or just terrified of getting it wrong (I’m looking at you Sadiq) have decided that they can simply ignore any actual data not suiting the narrative they want, because they have their “models” using being tweaked to show a story that they want to tell.
    Local Authorities get double the money if they go to the highest Tier
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    alex_ said:

    isam said:
    The politicians and scientists, either keen on new restrictions or just terrified of getting it wrong (I’m looking at you Sadiq) have decided that they can simply ignore any actual data not suiting the narrative they want, because they have their “models” using being tweaked to show a story that they want to tell.
    I for one am f*cking sick of modellers.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Caroline Wyatt has a more adult presentation of Radio4 PM than Evan Davis.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm calling it:

    Trafalgar is not a real pollster.

    They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.

    They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.

    Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standard
    Sorta like that broken grandfather clock - right twice a day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719
    HYUFD said:
    Didn't the Germans recommend doggy style for sex workers during covid, to allow facial social distancing?

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12518289/masked-sex-workers-romp-coronavirus-protest-german/
  • MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not going to help her chances.

    Trump blasts Susan Collins over SCOTUS amid reelection fight
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/trump-susan-collins-scotus-reelection-fight-429799

    Actually, it just might help her with Maine-iac Democrats who voted for her in the past, but who are doubtful they can do so again.

    Here in WA State we have a somewhat similar situation with Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who has received many Democratic votes in the past, the secret to her electoral success in the blue Evergreen State.

    Note that she's currently being hammered on TV by her Democratic opponent as a Trumpkyite. AND that in leadup to election Wyman got a lot of support from national Democratic circles as a Republican state election official who defended postal voting (at least in WA).
    Agree on that re it helping her. It’s a close race and it sounds like quite a few are undecided. This should actually help her.
    But not enough to re-elect her - on that yours truly agrees with Nigel.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    Finally, I have an excuse.
    I'm checking to see how many support bubbles I can form.
    Only one. But you can have an orgy in the garden.
    But don't they have to be from one family? Go down well in Norfolk
  • "So it’s perfectly legal to have sex in a car."

    As an American, regard having sex in you automobile as a basic right of every US resident above age of consent.

    OF course yours truly grew up in a age where American cars were LARGE with plenty of room for hanky panky, esp in backseat.

    Sadly this is no longer the case re: most passenger cars. Which is one key reason for popularity of vans, SUVs and pickup trucks in US of A.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    Every time I hear him on the radio he lets us down. Tories should be organising to rid us of this baffoon.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
      
    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:
    The politicians and scientists, either keen on new restrictions or just terrified of getting it wrong (I’m looking at you Sadiq) have decided that they can simply ignore any actual data not suiting the narrative they want, because they have their “models” using being tweaked to show a story that they want to tell.
    Local Authorities get double the money if they go to the highest Tier
    Yay! A post-code lottery.

  • alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    The US consoling itself with: CNN - The rise in new Covid-19 cases in Europe is far higher than the rise in the US, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and Johns Hopkins University (JHU).

    The surge in the five worst-affected European nations was nearly 42% higher than the increase in the US in the week from October 6 to 13, according to JHU's seven-day moving average of new cases.

    On October 13, that daily average in the US stood at 49,542. In the five worst-hit European countries -- France, the UK, Russia, Spain and the Netherlands -- the total daily average of new cases stood at 70,158 on the same day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
    Big_G and his ilk have a lot to answer for. Especially on the day that no deal Brexit looks more likely than ever.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Has anyone checked whether the right to have sex is protected under the Human Rights Act?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    geoffw said:

    Caroline Wyatt has a more adult presentation of Radio4 PM than Evan Davis.

    Yes she is very good. Calm and not over excitable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Quincel said:

    This should be used in lectures on bad data visualisations.


    Why in god's name is it backwards?
    If you copy paste the data from the government coronavirus dashboard the most recent date is at the top.

    It is suprisingly a huge pain in the arse to get excel to invert the order of a selection of rows.

    I have made graphs looking exactly like that over the last few months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Carnyx said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is this what Johnsons was talking about with his 'moonshot' ?

    Cool idea, but it's at least six months away from practical use.
    https://twitter.com/UniofOxford/status/1316691891040157696

    Pssh…. five minutes... this one is being tested at Heathrow and uses saliva and claims 20 seconds!
    https://www.ft.com/content/e7a279df-3239-4e00-be29-f38d98f4d730
    Can't access that (paywall) but I'm assuming it's an antigen test ?
    (Which is the type I very much favour for mass testing, as it's doable on a large scale in the near term.)

    This looks very different - single viral particle imaging.
    As such, it's probably more usefully applicable to future virus threats.
    Sorry. I think this one is also viral particle imaging - they say they need 10 viral particles in a sample to give a positive result.

    But it's also probably not a real test because they said Bristol university had validated it (Bristol university denies this) and they have no experts in virology/microscopy working on it.

    "Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said, “we are in a pandemic, people are dying from the disease, and a company decides that it is reasonable to mislead us all to make their test look like the best thing available”, referring to the claims being made for the test’s accuracy. “Legally, they can probably get away with this, but there cannot be any consideration that this is morally acceptable.”
    Can't read it as it is paywalled, but the other question that c omes to mind is - how do they know they have the right coronavirus? Are they really that distinct under the harsh conditions of electron microscopy? The common cold is sometimes a coronavirus. But perhaps false positives are better than false negativces, and can in any case be hauled out for further testing with antigens.
    The Oxford group are using a very different imaging technique.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.13.20212035v2.full.pdf
    ... To address this need, we developed a novel diagnostic method that relies on the detection of intact virus particles using wide-field fluorescence imaging. Our method starts with near-instantaneous labeling of enveloped viruses via cation-mediated binding of short fluorescent DNAs to the surface of virus particles9; we subsequently surface-immobilise labelled particles, collect diffraction-limited images containing thousands of labelled particles, and finally use image analysis and machine-learning to identify different viruses in biological and clinical samples (Fig.1A). Our approach exploits the fact that distinct virus types and strains have differences in surface chemistry, size, and shape, which in turn affects the fluorophore distribution over the surface of different viruses. Such differences can be captured by convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which have been used previously to classify super-resolved microscopy images of heterogeneous virus populations into particle classes with distinct structural features10, and to detect virus particles in transmission electron microscopy images...

    And are (rather more credibly) claiming proof of principle, rather than anything immediately deployable
    It sounds quite interesting for future use, as it ought to be applicable to any new or existing virus, so the capacity could be deployed as an insurance against future pandemics (& to diagnose seasonal viruses).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I think a lot of the time the Govt is still briefing out its guidance rather than the law. It’s doesn’t actually care if there’s a difference because in most cases the law isn’t being enforced anyway.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    RobD said:

    Finally, I have an excuse.
    I'm checking to see how many support bubbles I can form.
    Ask Boris. That will undoubtedly be the one measure he has a handle on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    Has anyone checked whether the right to have sex is protected under the Human Rights Act?

    I have, and it is protected, but there's a pretty huge caveat.

    There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of the [Right to respect for private and family life] except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I don't agree with @rcs1000 I think Trafalgar do genuinely engage in polling.

    The only red flag they have is their ludicrous presentation of results to 2 decimal places which is statistically illiterate.
  • IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
    Big_G and his ilk have a lot to answer for. Especially on the day that no deal Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    I'm glad I quit when I did, I'm not associated with this shit show.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    Has anyone checked whether the right to have sex is protected under the Human Rights Act?

    "Article 8 – Right to respect for private and family life

    1. Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence.

    2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others." (all emphasis mine)

    Yes it is, except on public health and safety safety grounds, as here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    RobD said:

    Quincel said:

    This should be used in lectures on bad data visualisations.


    Why in god's name is it backwards?
    The original program was in Hebrew ?
  • https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/1317138673654259713

    But I'll still back his nominee for SCOTUS.

    That, as they say, is a different kettle of fish.

    Amy Coney Barrett is NOT a Trumpsky project. She is a GOP establishment project, along with all the other Federalist Socialites that Mitch McConnell & Co (including Mitt Romney) have been speeding through the pipeline to confirmation BEFORE the next presidential inauguration.

  • IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
    Big_G and his ilk have a lot to answer for. Especially on the day that no deal Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    I'm glad I quit when I did, I'm not associated with this shit show.
    That's how I felt when Theresa May was PM.

    Turnabout is fair play.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
    Big_G and his ilk have a lot to answer for. Especially on the day that no deal Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    The original sin was committed by MPs who refused to back May's deal, and the organisations who tried to overturn the vote to Leave
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Where's HYUFD when we need one of his polls telling us how much support there is for Remaining
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited October 2020

    Jonathan said:

    Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.

    No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
    A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.


    Wishful thinking. For starters, odds of Biden winning White House AND the GOP re-taking US House in 2020 are virtually nil
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Jonathan said:

    Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.

    I don't understand why you're so negative on Biden. His approach seems very calm, sensible, and measured, and of all the possible Democrat candidates, he's the best placed for the overriding challenge of the next presidency, which is going to be dialling down the partisan warfare and making America whole again. His speeches have been excellent from that point of view. He also seems to have a good team, which bodes well for the all-important question of the senior appointments in his administration, assuming he wins of course.
    I want to agree fully with what you say but there is a nagging fear that there is barely the width of a sheet of paper between 'calm and measured' and comatose decrepitude - I'm just not sure which he is.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Alistair said:

    I don't agree with @rcs1000 I think Trafalgar do genuinely engage in polling.

    The only red flag they have is their ludicrous presentation of results to 2 decimal places which is statistically illiterate.

    I'm sure everyone on here has read this but, if they haven't, it is required for a debunking of the "Shy Trumper" myth that Trafalgar corrects for -

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    When we get the “Australia deal” which bit of Australia do we get? The beaches, the sun, the cricket and rugby league teams, or the uninhabitable bit in the middle and their football team?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    HYUFD said:
    So another minority view from MrEd
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
  • You haven't lived if you've never 'watched' a football match on Ceefax.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Democrats are voting more, requesting more ballots and returning those ballots at a quicker rate than republicans. Now I don't doubt Trump will win most of the late voters, he almost can't fail not to given the whopping lead Biden is building. I do however ponder how many GOP might just quietly sit this one out ?
  • Nigelb said:
    That's gotta hurt Trump.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    Nigelb said:
    Trump is a much more entertaining and likely to be newsworthy watch, but quite honestly everyone has seen it all before. He won't say anything of value, and nothing he says or does will shock anymore, so might as well wait for the clips.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719
    It makes me proud to be British to see what is trending on twitter...

    https://twitter.com/beccabeast1/status/1317144622691475457?s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Much as I’d like to bet on this, I think I’ll stay with the South Carolina race as my ridiculous longshot.
    Pretty good vid, though.

    https://twitter.com/pttrn_ntgrty/status/1317140744176500741
  • kjh said:

    Interesting that OGH is talking about a record turnout on the day Biden is doing a get out the black voter event in Michigan....

    What point are you making Contrarian?
    The Biden campaign suspects it might have a big enthusiasm problem, especially relative to Trump. Look at Biden's path to the democrat nomination, for example. Look at the voter registration numbers, where the republicans are slaughtering the democrats in some key states like Florida and Pennsylvania.

    That Biden is pushing to boost turnout of supporter with lower-than-average recent turnout is NOT a sign of any enthusiasm gap. It is evidence of long-standing demographic reality.

    Perhaps you may have noticed the loooooooooooog lines in some states for in-person early voting? Who strangely do NOT appear to be dominated by eager Putinists.

    As for registration, many of the "new" GOP registrations you are talking about are existing voters who have changed their party registration. In many cases, these are people who have been voting Republican for years and are finally switching to GOP.

    Still not great news for Dems, but NOT as much of a boon to GOP as you seem to think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    Alistair said:

    I don't agree with @rcs1000 I think Trafalgar do genuinely engage in polling.

    The only red flag they have is their ludicrous presentation of results to 2 decimal places which is statistically illiterate.

    I want to start a business which promises to show polling to the third decimal place, super accurate forecasting, just to see if anyone buys it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Pulpstar said:

    Democrats are voting more, requesting more ballots and returning those ballots at a quicker rate than republicans. Now I don't doubt Trump will win most of the late voters, he almost can't fail not to given the whopping lead Biden is building. I do however ponder how many GOP might just quietly sit this one out ?

    I’m wondering if the surge in Republican registrations might be people who WERE going to sit this one out, but have now decided enough is enough.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Nigelb said:
    That's gotta hurt Trump.
    That's almost unbelievable given the distribution networks for ABC vs NBC.

    The whole point of Trump demanding to be scheduled against Biden was to have a ratings win to crow about in twitter.

    Trump is REKT.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited October 2020

    Quincel said:

    This should be used in lectures on bad data visualisations.


    My God, have they hired Alistair Hames?
    all those un-employed LibDem bar charters... they found a home...

    Kim Jong Il: It will be 911 times 2356.
    Chris: My God, that's... I don't even know what that is!
    Kim Jong Il: Nobody does!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited October 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't agree with @rcs1000 I think Trafalgar do genuinely engage in polling.

    The only red flag they have is their ludicrous presentation of results to 2 decimal places which is statistically illiterate.

    I'm sure everyone on here has read this but, if they haven't, it is required for a debunking of the "Shy Trumper" myth that Trafalgar corrects for -

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html
    From what I see, pollsters aren't struggling to get reasonably accurate voter recall. Indeed they often seem to have a slight pro Trump recall bias !
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    You haven't lived if you've never 'watched' a football match on Ceefax.

    I moved down here in Jan 2012 and my local was still 'showing' the games via Ceefax until it stopped that October - so I 'watched' Man City win their first Premier Leage title via Ceefax there. An odd juxtaposition of the 20th and 21st centuries.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    You haven't lived if you've never 'watched' a football match on Ceefax.

    My Saturday afternoon as a kid. :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    Jonathan said:

    Why does my gut keep saying Trump?

    Perhaps because you've had lots of elections go against what you want in recent times, being left of centre and not thrilled by the idea of ordinary decent racists forever "speaking their mind" and Britain being hard for people and things to get into.

    Or perhaps I'm projecting. :smile:
    When you are piling everything on Biden, don’t forget to keep some money back for our bet
    Certainly not. If Donald Trump gets another term the one and only ray of light in a truly desolate landscape will be £50 going to underprivileged and demonized dogs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    Not sure about that. Clearly there’s a point in time before which you’re right, but I think it might have been about 10 years earlier.
  • tlg86 said:

    You haven't lived if you've never 'watched' a football match on Ceefax.

    My Saturday afternoon as a kid. :)
    Mine as well.

    What simpler times they were.

    Depending on the season, 9 out of 11 and 8 out of 10 Premier League matches kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Trump landslide guaranteed. Up by 6 in Alaska.

    https://twitter.com/skywalkm/status/1317149329526788103?s=19
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    Trump landslide guaranteed. Up by 6 in Alaska.

    https://twitter.com/skywalkm/status/1317149329526788103?s=19

    1) 'Kin hell, Trump won Alaska by 15% in 2016.

    2) Worryingly, this fits into my fear that Biden is stacking up votes where he doesn't need to.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    Without the Internet, working and education from home would be impossible.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DougSeal said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't agree with @rcs1000 I think Trafalgar do genuinely engage in polling.

    The only red flag they have is their ludicrous presentation of results to 2 decimal places which is statistically illiterate.

    I'm sure everyone on here has read this but, if they haven't, it is required for a debunking of the "Shy Trumper" myth that Trafalgar corrects for -

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html
    That just asserts that last minute undecided to trump switchers genuinely switched, they weren't really trumpers all along. May be right, may not, but it ain't no debunking.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Alistair said:

    I don't agree with @rcs1000 I think Trafalgar do genuinely engage in polling.

    The only red flag they have is their ludicrous presentation of results to 2 decimal places which is statistically illiterate.

    I'm sure everyone on here has read this but, if they haven't, it is required for a debunking of the "Shy Trumper" myth that Trafalgar corrects for -

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html
    From what I see, pollsters aren't struggling to get reasonably accurate voter recall. Indeed they often seem to have a slight pro Trump recall bias !
    America has a long and well documented "winner recall bias" it was one of the reasons why the LA Tracker poll was wrong in 201y as they had weighted by past vote recall but failed to adjust for recall bias.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    If I read it rightly, the SNP got more transfers than the Tories, too.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    No working at home.
    No food delivery.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Foxy said:

    It makes me proud to be British to see what is trending on twitter...

    https://twitter.com/beccabeast1/status/1317144622691475457?s=19

    Corbyn trended on Twitter a lot back in the day. Much good it did him.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    Home working. And internet banking.
  • Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    We had things to do, and better connected thanks to the internet in 2020, so we could stay at home,

    I mean things like online learning/teaching wouldn't have been possible in 1995 at this scale.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719

    Alistair said:

    Trump landslide guaranteed. Up by 6 in Alaska.

    https://twitter.com/skywalkm/status/1317149329526788103?s=19

    1) 'Kin hell, Trump won Alaska by 15% in 2016.

    2) Worryingly, this fits into my fear that Biden is stacking up votes where he doesn't need to.
    No, it is a proportional swing. Where there are more Republicans there are more switchers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    edited October 2020

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    We had things to do, and better connected thanks to the internet in 2020, so we could stay at home,

    I mean things like online learning/teaching wouldn't have been possible in 1995 at this scale.
    Oh I see what you mean, quite so, thank you. And WFH too. I was thinking in terms of public information - which was arguably easier with only a few newspapers and 4 TV channels. And Jonathan the OP has posted too, I now see.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    "So it’s perfectly legal to have sex in a car."

    As an American, regard having sex in you automobile as a basic right of every US resident above age of consent.

    OF course yours truly grew up in a age where American cars were LARGE with plenty of room for hanky panky, esp in backseat.

    Sadly this is no longer the case re: most passenger cars. Which is one key reason for popularity of vans, SUVs and pickup trucks in US of A.

    Is this one -

    https://youtu.be/C11MzbEcHlw
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    No working at home.
    No food delivery.

    Thanks!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    That’s fun, but there wouldn’t have been a lockdown if this had happened in 1990s. The internet made that policy viable.
    How does that logic work out, please?
    We had things to do, and better connected thanks to the internet in 2020, so we could stay at home,

    I mean things like online learning/teaching wouldn't have been possible in 1995 at this scale.
    Oh I see what you mean, quite so, thank you. And WFH too. I was thinking in terms of public information - which was arguably easier with only a few newspapers and 4 TV channels.
    I think my internet connection back in 1995 was 33 kbps.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    tlg86 said:

    You haven't lived if you've never 'watched' a football match on Ceefax.

    My Saturday afternoon as a kid. :)
    Mine as well.

    What simpler times they were.

    Depending on the season, 9 out of 11 and 8 out of 10 Premier League matches kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday.
    When I was a lad all the games were 3pm Saturday. I'd go to a game and then try to have a news blackout so I could watch Match of the Day without knowing the other results. However my elder brother used to wind me up by shouting out the results around the house. I've hated him ever since.
  • IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
    Big_G and his ilk have a lot to answer for. Especially on the day that no deal Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    I have nothing to answer for, and anyway I voted remain

    Labour and the Lib Dems had the chance to stop brexit but blew it with their idiotic GE campaigns

    If you are looking for scapegoats try looking in the mirror, it may help
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone checked whether the right to have sex is protected under the Human Rights Act?

    I have, and it is protected, but there's a pretty huge caveat.

    There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of the [Right to respect for private and family life] except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.
    Boris's abolition of sex on moral grounds will involve some tricky drafting.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:
    Me too. I'd have probably watched the Trump one. The pull of the grotesque.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    felix said:

    Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
    Andrew Bowie gone at the next election I think.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    So at his press conference Johnson was asked by a father living in Tier 1 if he could visit his son in tier 2. Johnson covered himself by saying he should check the website, but sadly “no, he didn’t think he could”.

    There is a specific exemption in the law to allow this. If Johnson doesn’t know the law they he should say so, not exacerbate his ignorance by actually giving a wrong answer. An answer that will cause strong distress to many people up and down the country (and potential problems where the parents are not on the best of terms and access is anyway sometimes problematic).

    The man is a joke, who creates trouble every time he opens his mouth. Not that that’s news.

    The man is a menace.
    Big_G and his ilk have a lot to answer for. Especially on the day that no deal Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    I have nothing to answer for, and anyway I voted remain

    Labour and the Lib Dems had the chance to stop brexit but blew it with their idiotic GE campaigns

    If you are looking for scapegoats try looking in the mirror, it may help
    Nice victim blaming there Big G. This is nothing to do with us - a purely Tory endeavour.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited October 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:
    Me too. I'd have probably watched the Trump one. The pull of the grotesque.
    I think a lot of people here are sick and tired of Trump and his schtick. A big part of Biden's appeal is increasingly that he's the anti-Trump: decent, reasonable, a bit dull.

    If I were running the Biden campaign I'd be making ads featuring the most unhinged Trump moments with the simple slogan: "You can make it stop."
  • tlg86 said:

    You haven't lived if you've never 'watched' a football match on Ceefax.

    My Saturday afternoon as a kid. :)
    Mine as well.

    What simpler times they were.

    Depending on the season, 9 out of 11 and 8 out of 10 Premier League matches kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday.
    When I was a lad all the games were 3pm Saturday. I'd go to a game and then try to have a news blackout so I could watch Match of the Day without knowing the other results. However my elder brother used to wind me up by shouting out the results around the house. I've hated him ever since.
    Back in the 1990s, Liverpool played a UEFA Cup match, and I was still at school when the match kicked off, so I asked my Mum to record it for me.

    I got home, asked her did she record it, she said yes, I told her not to tell me what the result was, she said she couldn't even if she wanted to as there weren't any goals in the match.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    edited October 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
    Andrew Bowie gone at the next election I think.
    Not to suggest that Mr Bowie is any more of one than the rest of us are, but a chimpanzee in tweeds can't count on being elected any more, it's a hard life. Mind, it's not a fishing port. More Aberdeen dormitory. But there is a lot more to even a coastal constituency than a few deep-sea trawler owners.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    I feel like real life is bleeding into everything I look at the moment- I pick up a book from the shelf completely at random, a Ben Elton book called Blind Faith which from the back cover seems like it is going to commenting on our culture's jettisoning of privacy, and in the first few pages it talking about a world where public health advantages of keeping people apart mean nearly everyone works from home apart from those who serve food or drink. Perhaps something else would be a better pick until Covid is over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,210
    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm calling it:

    Trafalgar is not a real pollster.

    They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.

    They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.

    It seems hard to believe all the forecasters etc and journalists wouldn't have picked up on this. Poll fraud does happen from time to time and has been rooted out before.

    They have a website with a phone number. If you fancy you could call them up (maybe using VoIP to avoid the call charges) and ask them for their company details.
    I already tried the phone number. It always goes straight to voicemail.
This discussion has been closed.