I don't think the law says that. At least, I can't find it.
Page 10: Schedule 1, Part 1, Paragraph 1:
Participation in gatherings indoors
1.—(1) No person may participate in a gathering in the Tier 2 area which— (a) consists of two or more people, and (b) takes place indoors.
(2) No person living in the Tier 2 area may participate in a gathering outside that area which— (a) consists of two or more people, and (b) takes place indoors.
(3) Sub-paragraphs (1) and (2) do not apply if any of the exceptions set out in paragraph 4 apply.
According to LinkedIn they're a communications group based in Atlanta, Georgia. Yet Google doesn't find it, and they're not a business registered in Georgia, according to https://ecorp.sos.ga.gov/BusinessSearch.
Searching for employees on LinkedIn, we find two people in South Africa and one in Kuwait. Yet their profiles are hidden: you can't access them. Why would all the employees of a business have hidden LinkedIn profiles? (Especially one that is ostensibly in the communications business.)
The more I look at them, the more I'm reminded of Derren Brown's The System.
Meanwhile a Kaboom from Trafalgar who as in 2016 are the only pollster with Trump ahead in Michigan, if they are right again Trump will likely be re elected in the EC even if he loses the popular vote again
Trafalgar are cruising for a bruising. Either that or they are deliberately taking a position, calculating that on the off chance of fluking it the glory will be unbounded whereas if they are wrong (meaning wronger than others) this will be quickly forgotten or can somehow be explained away. The polling industry equivalent of the wannabe star City analyst making a high profile against-the-herd call on something big such as house prices.
Fine, ignore Trafalgar but if they are right as they were in 2016 against the herd then Trump will be calling it 'the greatest comeback in history', the rest of the polling industry and Nate Silver would be humiliated and Trump will be re elected (though I suspect Biden will at least win the popular vote again).
Boris would of course be on the phone straight away to Trump to congratulate him, '...well done Donald, fabulous result, always knew you would do it, now about that trade deal....'
538 give a rating to all pollsters, based on how accurate their results are historically, not just cherry picking 2016.
In Michigan the latest polls all have Biden with a lead of between 6 and 11 points, except for Trafalgar, who have the lowest rating a C- gives Trump a 1 point lead.
You can put your eggs into one Trafalgar basket. I'm not going to.
This is the same 538 who had an appalling 2016 and forecast a Hillary near landslide with Hillary winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin while Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly have Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Survation were the most accurate pollsters in GE 2017 and the most inaccurate in GE 2015.
If Trafalgar's final polls are still out of line with just about everyone else on the eve of polling yet they prove to be most accurate then they will deserve the plaudits. If they are way out their 2016 success will become a distant memory.
Survation's final 2015 poll was Tories plus 7% ie the most accurate, just it was unpublished as they did not believe it, Survation's final 2011 poll was Tories +11% ie almost spot on as they were in 2017 when they had Tories +1%
Arguably Trafalgar only got it exactly bang on in Pennsylvania.
They predicted a 2% lead for Trump in Michigan and he only ended up 0.3% ahead.
Likewise they predicted a 4% lead for Trump in Florida in 2016 and Trump only ended up 1.2% ahead and this year Trafalgar has him only 2% ahead there.
It would be quite a big surprise if Biden failed to win any of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as opposed to Florida (which I can still see Biden winning by 1%) which is Trump's home state and had a nasty sting in the tail for democrats in 2014 and 2018 as well.
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
It's the only way to drive in this crisis. The road ahead is completely unmarked.
It is bizarre as they surely have models that make forecasts no matter how imperfect. Of course you will make mistakes following such models, but it has to be better than waiting on data that we know lags weeks behind the underlying spread of infection.
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
Yes, I think nationally the R may be just above or below 1. The positivity rate vs tests and the new case rate does look to have stabilised.
Whoever is doing the government's predictive modelling needs to be sacked. That 800-107k range is a joke. I don't understand why the government hasn't asked tech and finance to just do it for them, the academics clearly aren't up to the task.
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
It's the only way to drive in this crisis. The road ahead is completely unmarked.
It would be good if they could get some more timely information. PCR results lag by 5-6 days before reasonably complete
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
Yes, I think nationally the R may be just above or below 1. The positivity rate vs tests and the new case rate does look to have stabilised.
Whoever is doing the government's predictive modelling needs to be sacked. That 800-107k range is a joke. I don't understand why the government hasn't asked tech and finance to just do it for them, the academics clearly aren't up to the task.
I thought we had been assured categorically that the restrictions had failed (including some that hadn't even been implemented)?
I am looking forward to this Australian trading relationship with the EU, where our exports to the EU are only 7% of our overall exports. I am sure our exporters are relishing the challenge!
"On November 3, 2010, campaign consultant Robert Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED), being charged for making illegal robocalls to six state house districts.[1] The automated opinion polling system asked whether U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be invited to campaign with six Democratic candidates for the South Carolina Legislature.[2] Cahaly was arrested despite having a written opinion from the state attorney general stating that he had acted within the law.[3] The charges were subsequently dismissed in October 2012.[4] After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed a suit against state officials (including SLED Chief Reginald Lloyd), claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. U.S. district court judge, Michelle Childs ruled that the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional.[5]"
Point here is NOT the legal case, but rather the fact that Cahaly (based in Georgia) was (and my guess still is) working on behalf of REPUBLICANS.
They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.
They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.
It seems hard to believe all the forecasters etc and journalists wouldn't have picked up on this. Poll fraud does happen from time to time and has been rooted out before.
They have a website with a phone number. If you fancy you could call them up (maybe using VoIP to avoid the call charges) and ask them for their company details.
Just belatedly tuned into that "Barrington Declaration". My conclusion is it is wishful thinking. Such an approach might work with a different virus in a different country in a different time. But not for Covid-19 in Britain in 2020.
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
It's the only way to drive in this crisis. The road ahead is completely unmarked.
It is unmarked but we should have enough data from the first wave to build a predictive model that can give better ranges than what they academics have been churning out. I mean that range was a joke, it's not a real forecast it's an "I don't have a fucking clue, but I better not say that because they'll wonder whether I'm a real professor".
Meanwhile a Kaboom from Trafalgar who as in 2016 are the only pollster with Trump ahead in Michigan, if they are right again Trump will likely be re elected in the EC even if he loses the popular vote again
Trafalgar are cruising for a bruising. Either that or they are deliberately taking a position, calculating that on the off chance of fluking it the glory will be unbounded whereas if they are wrong (meaning wronger than others) this will be quickly forgotten or can somehow be explained away. The polling industry equivalent of the wannabe star City analyst making a high profile against-the-herd call on something big such as house prices.
Fine, ignore Trafalgar but if they are right as they were in 2016 against the herd then Trump will be calling it 'the greatest comeback in history', the rest of the polling industry and Nate Silver would be humiliated and Trump will be re elected (though I suspect Biden will at least win the popular vote again).
Boris would of course be on the phone straight away to Trump to congratulate him, '...well done Donald, fabulous result, always knew you would do it, now about that trade deal....'
538 give a rating to all pollsters, based on how accurate their results are historically, not just cherry picking 2016.
In Michigan the latest polls all have Biden with a lead of between 6 and 11 points, except for Trafalgar, who have the lowest rating a C- gives Trump a 1 point lead.
You can put your eggs into one Trafalgar basket. I'm not going to.
This is the same 538 who had an appalling 2016 and forecast a Hillary near landslide with Hillary winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin while Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly have Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Survation were the most accurate pollsters in GE 2017 and the most inaccurate in GE 2015.
If Trafalgar's final polls are still out of line with just about everyone else on the eve of polling yet they prove to be most accurate then they will deserve the plaudits. If they are way out their 2016 success will become a distant memory.
Survation's final 2015 poll was Tories plus 7% ie the most accurate, just it was unpublished as they did not believe it, Survation's final 2011 poll was Tories +11% ie almost spot on as they were in 2017 when they had Tories +1%
Arguably Trafalgar only got it exactly bang on in Pennsylvania.
They predicted a 2% lead for Trump in Michigan and he only ended up 0.3% ahead.
Likewise they predicted a 4% lead for Trump in Florida in 2016 and Trump only ended up 1.2% ahead and this year Trafalgar has him only 2% ahead there.
It would be quite a big surprise if Biden failed to win any of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as opposed to Florida (which I can still see Biden winning by 1%) which is Trump's home state and had a nasty sting in the tail for democrats in 2014 and 2018 as well.
Indeed, Trafalgar did very little statewide polling in 2016. In fact, I think they only did 9 polls in individual states all campaign. As far as I can see it was pretty good, though mostly a couple of % too strong for Trump compared to results and there were a couple of big misses (having Trump 5 up in Nevada, in particular).
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
Yes, I think nationally the R may be just above or below 1. The positivity rate vs tests and the new case rate does look to have stabilised.
Whoever is doing the government's predictive modelling needs to be sacked. That 800-107k range is a joke. I don't understand why the government hasn't asked tech and finance to just do it for them, the academics clearly aren't up to the task.
I rather think the problem is the what they need to model - personal behaviour may be the biggest variable.
I know many people who were relaxing in various ways. Most have now tighten back up. All that stuff on TV about students getting the plague frightened them. Is this the cause of the latest numbers?
So models based on purely physical parameters would be extremely incomplete.
I live in Tier 2, but if I turned left out of my house and walked in a straight line, the 8th house I got to would be in Tier 1. If only I lived there, I could go for a drink with 5 other people I don't live with
Can't you just meet your friends in the first pub in the Tier 1 zone?
No I don't think so. You have to abide by the rules of your tier no matter where you are I think. Hope I am wrong about that, but sure thats what I read
Yes, correct. The rule applies either to anyone meeting inside the Tier 2 or 3 zone (irrespective of where they live), or to anyone living in Tier 1 or Tier 2, irrespective of where they meet up with others. Which is pretty sensible, if you think about it.
On BBC news this morning the view seemed to be that you followed the rules of the higher place. So if you live in Tier 1 and you go into Tier 2 you follow the Tier 2 rules. If you live in Tier 2 and move to Tier 1 you follow Tier 2 rules.
Can't access that (paywall) but I'm assuming it's an antigen test ? (Which is the type I very much favour for mass testing, as it's doable on a large scale in the near term.)
This looks very different - single viral particle imaging. As such, it's probably more usefully applicable to future virus threats.
Sorry. I think this one is also viral particle imaging - they say they need 10 viral particles in a sample to give a positive result.
But it's also probably not a real test because they said Bristol university had validated it (Bristol university denies this) and they have no experts in virology/microscopy working on it.
"Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said, “we are in a pandemic, people are dying from the disease, and a company decides that it is reasonable to mislead us all to make their test look like the best thing available”, referring to the claims being made for the test’s accuracy. “Legally, they can probably get away with this, but there cannot be any consideration that this is morally acceptable.”
I am looking forward to this Australian trading relationship with the EU, where our exports to the EU are only 7% of our overall exports. I am sure our exporters are relishing the challenge!
What does Australia export to the EU27, rather than old EU with us in it? I don't often see Australian wine there for example. Is it mostly Iron Ore, fossil fuels etc?
I don't think the law says that. At least, I can't find it.
Page 10: Schedule 1, Part 1, Paragraph 1:
Participation in gatherings indoors
1.—(1) No person may participate in a gathering in the Tier 2 area which— (a) consists of two or more people, and (b) takes place indoors.
(2) No person living in the Tier 2 area may participate in a gathering outside that area which— (a) consists of two or more people, and (b) takes place indoors.
(3) Sub-paragraphs (1) and (2) do not apply if any of the exceptions set out in paragraph 4 apply.
Trump is the ultimate protest vote and there is a lot to protest about. Biden is not exciting and motivating in and of himself, he is the not-Trump proxy.
Biden is a better candidate than Hillary, but arguably Trump is stronger than he was in 2016. CV19 has caused him harm, but he is stronger because he is the incumbent and can claim some success with the economy.
I am looking forward to this Australian trading relationship with the EU, where our exports to the EU are only 7% of our overall exports. I am sure our exporters are relishing the challenge!
when he was asking if some industries were 'expendable I thought he was referring to the hospitality industry in the fight against COVID.
The ramp of UK hospitalisations is getting rather steep.
Yes, corresponds to the data from a 7-10 days ago which had a steep rise in cases.
I think the evidence points to R rapidly heading down towards 1, and perhaps now being under it. The problem is that the numbers (as always) are capturing the situation a couple of weeks ago.
Our government's habit of staring hard into the rear view mirror is deeply disturbing.
Yes, I think nationally the R may be just above or below 1. The positivity rate vs tests and the new case rate does look to have stabilised.
Whoever is doing the government's predictive modelling needs to be sacked. That 800-107k range is a joke. I don't understand why the government hasn't asked tech and finance to just do it for them, the academics clearly aren't up to the task.
I am increasingly sceptical of the quality of the models. Even in todays presentation, they showed the "prediction" from a model for infections last week and the range was enormous and miles from the ONS survey estimate.... so what does it pump out going forward for a few weeks!
Actually, it just might help her with Maine-iac Democrats who voted for her in the past, but who are doubtful they can do so again.
Here in WA State we have a somewhat similar situation with Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who has received many Democratic votes in the past, the secret to her electoral success in the blue Evergreen State.
Note that she's currently being hammered on TV by her Democratic opponent as a Trumpkyite. AND that in leadup to election Wyman got a lot of support from national Democratic circles as a Republican state election official who defended postal voting (at least in WA).
I am looking forward to this Australian trading relationship with the EU, where our exports to the EU are only 7% of our overall exports. I am sure our exporters are relishing the challenge!
What does Australia export to the EU27, rather than old EU with us in it? I don't often see Australian wine there for example. Is it mostly Iron Ore, fossil fuels etc?
How many Australian lorries travel to the EU each day - or Canadian ones for that matter?
I live in Tier 2, but if I turned left out of my house and walked in a straight line, the 8th house I got to would be in Tier 1. If only I lived there, I could go for a drink with 5 other people I don't live with
Can't you just meet your friends in the first pub in the Tier 1 zone?
No I don't think so. You have to abide by the rules of your tier no matter where you are I think. Hope I am wrong about that, but sure thats what I read
Yes, correct. The rule applies either to anyone meeting inside the Tier 2 or 3 zone (irrespective of where they live), or to anyone living in Tier 1 or Tier 2, irrespective of where they meet up with others. Which is pretty sensible, if you think about it.
On BBC news this morning the view seemed to be that you followed the rules of the higher place. So if you live in Tier 1 and you go into Tier 2 you follow the Tier 2 rules. If you live in Tier 2 and move to Tier 1 you follow Tier 2 rules.
I am looking forward to this Australian trading relationship with the EU, where our exports to the EU are only 7% of our overall exports. I am sure our exporters are relishing the challenge!
when he was asking if some industries were 'expendable I thought he was referring to the hospitality industry in the fight against COVID.
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
A consolation is that 2020 feels like an election to lose. A Biden presidency fighting the CV19 aftermath could make Carter look successful. Trump 2024 could then easily be a thing. The only question would be which Trump? An all female Harris-Trump fight perhaps?
Can't access that (paywall) but I'm assuming it's an antigen test ? (Which is the type I very much favour for mass testing, as it's doable on a large scale in the near term.)
This looks very different - single viral particle imaging. As such, it's probably more usefully applicable to future virus threats.
Sorry. I think this one is also viral particle imaging - they say they need 10 viral particles in a sample to give a positive result.
But it's also probably not a real test because they said Bristol university had validated it (Bristol university denies this) and they have no experts in virology/microscopy working on it.
"Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said, “we are in a pandemic, people are dying from the disease, and a company decides that it is reasonable to mislead us all to make their test look like the best thing available”, referring to the claims being made for the test’s accuracy. “Legally, they can probably get away with this, but there cannot be any consideration that this is morally acceptable.”
Can't read it as it is paywalled, but the other question that c omes to mind is - how do they know they have the right coronavirus? Are they really that distinct under the harsh conditions of electron microscopy? The common cold is sometimes a coronavirus. But perhaps false positives are better than false negativces, and can in any case be hauled out for further testing with antigens.
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
He isn't winning this time. He is up against a less hated candidate and you can see at the rallies he hasn't managed to develop a clear narrative this time.
Last time, it was stick to the political elite who think you are all deplorables, they say more of the same and your jobs are going, I say bring em back etc etc etc
This time it is something something Sleepy Joe, something something far leftist Harris, they will take your guns, and...There is no real narrative.
Interesting that OGH is talking about a record turnout on the day Biden is doing a get out the black voter event in Michigan....
What point are you making Contrarian?
The Biden campaign suspects it might have a big enthusiasm problem, especially relative to Trump. Look at Biden's path to the democrat nomination, for example. Look at the voter registration numbers, where the republicans are slaughtering the democrats in some key states like Florida and Pennsylvania.
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
A consolation is that 2020 feels like an election to lose. A Biden presidency fighting the CV19 aftermath could make Carter look successful. Trump 2024 could then easily be a thing. The only question would be which Trump? An all female Harris-Trump fight perhaps?
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
A consolation is that 2020 feels like an election to lose. A Biden presidency fighting the CV19 aftermath could make Carter look successful. Trump 2024 could then easily be a thing. The only question would be which Trump? An all female Harris-Trump fight perhaps?
Certainly any government is going to have to negotiate an economic and medical shitshow for the next couple of years.
My gut still says Biden landslide, and that is where my stake money is too.
Interesting that OGH is talking about a record turnout on the day Biden is doing a get out the black voter event in Michigan....
What point are you making Contrarian?
I commented yesterday that Wayne County, which includes Detroit, has seen a low request for mail in ballots compared to other Democrat counties in MI (c 35pc) and also one of the lowest return rates in Michigan. That doesn’t bode well given the importance of Detroit for the race in MI. I’m guessing Biden’s campaign has seen the same data.
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
A consolation is that 2020 feels like an election to lose. A Biden presidency fighting the CV19 aftermath could make Carter look successful. Trump 2024 could then easily be a thing. The only question would be which Trump? An all female Harris-Trump fight perhaps?
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
A consolation is that 2020 feels like an election to lose. A Biden presidency fighting the CV19 aftermath could make Carter look successful. Trump 2024 could then easily be a thing. The only question would be which Trump? An all female Harris-Trump fight perhaps?
Certainly any government is going to have to negotiate an economic and medical shitshow for the next couple of years.
My gut still says Biden landslide, and that is where my stake money is too.
My gut says Biden but not by much, with partisanship limiting the damage to republicans. Dems on 50-52 senators (probably 51 or 52, given the recent polling). If I'm wrong then my guess would be it's a bigger Biden win, not a shock Trump win. But anything's possible.
Mrs May doesn't call a snap election in 2017 and thus we were meant to have a general election May 2020, but Covid-19 puts the kibosh on that.
Following the 1940 precedent we get a government of national unity, with Corbyn as Deputy PM.
Grumpy Uncle would never have agreed to that...and even if he did, he would sit in every meeting going no, no, no...we would never agree to go into lockdown ever with Jezza having any say, because the Tories proposed it, it doesn't protect the disadvantaged enough, etc etc etc.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
Actually, it just might help her with Maine-iac Democrats who voted for her in the past, but who are doubtful they can do so again.
Here in WA State we have a somewhat similar situation with Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who has received many Democratic votes in the past, the secret to her electoral success in the blue Evergreen State.
Note that she's currently being hammered on TV by her Democratic opponent as a Trumpkyite. AND that in leadup to election Wyman got a lot of support from national Democratic circles as a Republican state election official who defended postal voting (at least in WA).
Agree on that re it helping her. It’s a close race and it sounds like quite a few are undecided. This should actually help her.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
I am now back to forecasting the closest election since 2000, certainly in the EC
Mrs May doesn't call a snap election in 2017 and thus we were meant to have a general election May 2020, but Covid-19 puts the kibosh on that.
Following the 1940 precedent we get a government of national unity, with Corbyn as Deputy PM.
Corbyn should have played for that in the Brexit wars of 2019. If he had the humility to accept a GONU with a Tory PM, he would have been in and out of no10 and gone a long way to neutralise his negatives.
But they were too blind/foolish/partisan to accept that route.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
Interesting that OGH is talking about a record turnout on the day Biden is doing a get out the black voter event in Michigan....
What point are you making Contrarian?
I commented yesterday that Wayne County, which includes Detroit, has seen a low request for mail in ballots compared to other Democrat counties in MI (c 35pc) and also one of the lowest return rates in Michigan. That doesn’t bode well given the importance of Detroit for the race in MI. I’m guessing Biden’s campaign has seen the same data.
Jeez.
Ironic if Michigan, of all states, saved Trump (and he lost Wisconsin/Penn!).
Perhaps because you've had lots of elections go against what you want in recent times, being left of centre and not thrilled by the idea of ordinary decent racists forever "speaking their mind" and Britain being hard for people and things to get into.
This seemed to have been the story of previous lockdowns over the summer. By the time an issue had been identified and local restrictions put in place, the infection had already peaked in that area and spread elsewhere.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.
Doubling times still going up, London now at 14 days, it looks like the levelling has continued for the third day in a row nationally as well. @Gallowgate the early data for the 14th doesn't looks great in the NE, but it could be due to a lower swab to processing delta.
Interesting anecdote from today. I was in Ponteland (Northumberland, but right on the border with the Toon) having my hair cut. My barber had little craic so I was listening in to the barber to the left me and her client. I was shocked to hear that she was telling a “humorous” story that one of her regular clients had returned home from university in the last few weeks, had his hair cut, then tested positive the same day. Nobody seemed bothered by this and nothing suggested that anyone had isolated or had themselves tested. Brilliant.
Perhaps because you've had lots of elections go against what you want in recent times, being left of centre and not thrilled by the idea of ordinary decent racists forever "speaking their mind" and Britain being hard for people and things to get into.
Or perhaps I'm projecting.
When you are piling everything on Biden, don’t forget to keep some money back for our bet
What would be your guess at the % of couples in that predicament who abide by those rules?
Pretty low.
The thing is if its just the two of you, you go to one another homes on different days, i doubt in the grand scheme of things it is really adding to the overall level of spreading.
It is having things like close interactions with a wide range of different people e.g. having different mates over every night, that is an issue.
The politicians and scientists, either keen on new restrictions or just terrified of getting it wrong (I’m looking at you Sadiq) have decided that they can simply ignore any actual data not suiting the narrative they want, because they have their “models” using being tweaked to show a story that they want to tell.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
It will be who do you trust to run the economy in the recovery. Trump is likely to win that debate
Mine does too, if that makes you feel any better ;-)
A consolation is that 2020 feels like an election to lose. A Biden presidency fighting the CV19 aftermath could make Carter look successful. Trump 2024 could then easily be a thing. The only question would be which Trump? An all female Harris-Trump fight perhaps?
Ivanka is too much of a RINO for the GOP base at the moment, if Trump wins Pence-Buttigieg is more likely than Harris-Trump
What would be your guess at the % of couples in that predicament who abide by those rules?
Pretty low.
The thing is if its just the two of you, you go to one another homes on different days, i doubt in the grand scheme of things I doubt it is really adding to the overall level of spreading.
It is having things like having close interactions with a wide range of different people e.g. having different mates over every night, that is an issue.
One of the things I read the other day about why the UK had such a high death total from Covid-19 was UK house prices.
The logic was younger people who can't afford to buy (or even rent) are now living with their parents at a higher percentage than other countries.
Add in some grandparents being cared for in that house and you can understand why our figures are so high.
I wonder how connected we are digitally causes equivalent of a local lockdown naturally....when Bob tests positive for COVID, everybody in the whatsapps groups, Facebook friends etc will know.
You hear a number of those stories and lots of people will think twice about doing certains things
Allowed if you are in a support bubble though or 1 is in a Tier 1 area and you stay there
I know quite a few people who live in house shares and each housemate is in a “bubble” with someone else. Not technically allowed but who’s ever going to know?
Comments
According to LinkedIn they're a communications group based in Atlanta, Georgia. Yet Google doesn't find it, and they're not a business registered in Georgia, according to https://ecorp.sos.ga.gov/BusinessSearch.
Searching for employees on LinkedIn, we find two people in South Africa and one in Kuwait. Yet their profiles are hidden: you can't access them. Why would all the employees of a business have hidden LinkedIn profiles? (Especially one that is ostensibly in the communications business.)
The more I look at them, the more I'm reminded of Derren Brown's The System.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baltimore-ballot-drop-box-security-guard-shot/
They predicted a 2% lead for Trump in Michigan and he only ended up 0.3% ahead.
Likewise they predicted a 4% lead for Trump in Florida in 2016 and Trump only ended up 1.2% ahead and this year Trafalgar has him only 2% ahead there.
It would be quite a big surprise if Biden failed to win any of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as opposed to Florida (which I can still see Biden winning by 1%) which is Trump's home state and had a nasty sting in the tail for democrats in 2014 and 2018 as well.
Trafalgar is not a real pollster.
They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.
They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.
Whoever is doing the government's predictive modelling needs to be sacked. That 800-107k range is a joke. I don't understand why the government hasn't asked tech and finance to just do it for them, the academics clearly aren't up to the task.
A bit like yesterday when you said the Deputy Mayor (sic) had encouraged law breaking, when he clearly didn't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cahaly_v._LaRosa
"On November 3, 2010, campaign consultant Robert Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED), being charged for making illegal robocalls to six state house districts.[1] The automated opinion polling system asked whether U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be invited to campaign with six Democratic candidates for the South Carolina Legislature.[2] Cahaly was arrested despite having a written opinion from the state attorney general stating that he had acted within the law.[3] The charges were subsequently dismissed in October 2012.[4] After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed a suit against state officials (including SLED Chief Reginald Lloyd), claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. U.S. district court judge, Michelle Childs ruled that the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional.[5]"
Point here is NOT the legal case, but rather the fact that Cahaly (based in Georgia) was (and my guess still is) working on behalf of REPUBLICANS.
They have a website with a phone number. If you fancy you could call them up (maybe using VoIP to avoid the call charges) and ask them for their company details.
I know many people who were relaxing in various ways. Most have now tighten back up. All that stuff on TV about students getting the plague frightened them. Is this the cause of the latest numbers?
So models based on purely physical parameters would be extremely incomplete.
But it's also probably not a real test because they said Bristol university had validated it (Bristol university denies this) and they have no experts in virology/microscopy working on it.
"Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said, “we are in a pandemic, people are dying from the disease, and a company decides that it is reasonable to mislead us all to make their test look like the best thing available”, referring to the claims being made for the test’s accuracy. “Legally, they can probably get away with this, but there cannot be any consideration that this is morally acceptable.”
Trump is the ultimate protest vote and there is a lot to protest about. Biden is not exciting and motivating in and of himself, he is the not-Trump proxy.
Biden is a better candidate than Hillary, but arguably Trump is stronger than he was in 2016. CV19 has caused him harm, but he is stronger because he is the incumbent and can claim some success with the economy.
Clearly that industry is very expendable.
Here in WA State we have a somewhat similar situation with Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who has received many Democratic votes in the past, the secret to her electoral success in the blue Evergreen State.
Note that she's currently being hammered on TV by her Democratic opponent as a Trumpkyite. AND that in leadup to election Wyman got a lot of support from national Democratic circles as a Republican state election official who defended postal voting (at least in WA).
Last time, it was stick to the political elite who think you are all deplorables, they say more of the same and your jobs are going, I say bring em back etc etc etc
This time it is something something Sleepy Joe, something something far leftist Harris, they will take your guns, and...There is no real narrative.
My gut still says Biden landslide, and that is where my stake money is too.
Mrs May doesn't call a snap election in 2017 and thus we were meant to have a general election May 2020, but Covid-19 puts the kibosh on that.
Following the 1940 precedent we get a government of national unity, with Corbyn as Deputy PM.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1317115229264924678?s=20
But they were too blind/foolish/partisan to accept that route.
Ironic if Michigan, of all states, saved Trump (and he lost Wisconsin/Penn!).
Or perhaps I'm projecting.
https://twitter.com/EveningStandard/status/1317114264520396802
But I'll still back his nominee for SCOTUS.
It is having things like close interactions with a wide range of different people e.g. having different mates over every night, that is an issue.
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/writing-an-honest-account-of-corbynism-and-its-defeat-my-response-to-len-mccluskey-2fae78677cfc
The logic was younger people who can't afford to buy (or even rent) are now living with their parents at a higher percentage than other countries.
Add in some grandparents being cared for in that house and you can understand why our figures are so high.
You hear a number of those stories and lots of people will think twice about doing certains things