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For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved –

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 12 in General
For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved – politicalbetting.com

Very little movement on the WH2020 spread betting markets from SportingIndex https://t.co/RbR47W4MZc pic.twitter.com/GfJVOJGHEI

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,763
    Fill your boots with Biden.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    FPT - Language is important and no-one should either be or feel threatened. However, the existing asylum system is widely abused and full of loopholes. Far too many in the legal profession seem sanguine about this and are as quick to defend themselves as they are criticise those in the general public who object to this.

    So, at present, it's ending up as a plague on both your houses. As with so many issues around asylum/immigration there is no real sensible conversation going on.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407
    I've cashed out of my main next President position. Not a +EV move, but I'm glad to lock in a profit and will keep an eye out for opportunities on the night.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,543
    It's fascinating isn't it. There really is little doubt that Biden will win this race by a good PV margin that should easily be sufficient for him to gain an EC majority. The key difference with respect to 2016 is that his support is much more stable than Clinton's, reflecting a large number of voters who disliked both candidates then and vascillated in their views, and ultimately were willing to give Trump a chance. By contrast, people seem to have made up their minds now. I don't think Biden will win states like TX, but I just don't see a Trump path to victory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12
    The latest numbers over the last 24 hours suggest a narrow Biden win, certainly not a Biden landslide, with a chance of a Trump win if he wins Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as Trump is back in front in Ohio, Florida and Georgia.









  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    Summary of latest forecasting models. YouGov haven't updated their model since 3rd October, so it doesn't capture the latest moves towards Biden in the polling. I've added fair value for the N-Up spread markets.

    538 Economist YouGov
    ---------------------------------------------------

    Probability of Biden win 86% 91% 83%
    Probability of Trump win 14% 9% 17%

    Median of probability distribution
    (i.e. 50% of the distribution is above/below this value):
    Biden ECVs: 350 347 342
    Trump ECVs: 188 191 196

    Expected value of probability distribution
    (i.e. fair value for spread bets):
    Biden ECVs: 345 341 337
    Trump ECVs: 193 197 201

    Fair value for N-up spread bets:
    Biden 270-Up: 81 75 73
    Biden 300-Up: 57 49 50
    Trump 270-Up: 6 3 8

    Probability by Ladbrokes band
    Biden 400+ 25% 11% 19%
    Biden 350-399 25% 38% 27%
    Biden 300-349 24% 32% 24%
    Biden 270-299 11% 10% 13%
    Trump 270-299 6% 5% 9%
    Trump 300-349 7% 4% 7%
    Trump 350-399 1% 0% 0%
    Trump 400+ 0% 0% 0%
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,319
    NOTE @HYUFD can be highly selective in the polls he reports here. Make your own check here
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    HYUFD said:
    He's a sensible man. There's no need to endorse, no one doubts which he'd prefer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    Also FPT - the current guidelines for asylum are very wide: https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/eligibility

    We know what happens is the following:

    (1) Those who want to come to the UK and with the means to pay people smugglers aim to do so
    (2) This tends to be (80%+) men in their 20s & 30s from middle income countries, particularly Iran and Iraq
    (3) This is because it costs thousands of pounds (sometimes into five figures) to get here
    (4) Some are legitimate claimants, but many are not
    (5) The illegitimate ones know they need to fit the criteria, and need a story accordingly
    (6) They often destroy their travel documents if this might contradict it - and learn a new backstory instead
    (7) They know they mustn't claim asylum in any other Western country first, or they will be sent back there
    (8) That once they cross 50% of the way across the channel they'll be able to lodge a British claim
    (9) That the UK really struggles to deport failed asylum seekers; the process can take years with multiple appeal routes available
    (10) They know that once settled they may be able to exercise the "right to family life" to bring over immediate dependents - and can communicate their success back to those still at home too

    I could add an (11) which is that there are millions of far poorer vulnerable women and children around the world who desperately need refuge, somewhere, who never get a look in.

    This is what people object to - they know the system is open to abuse. Many are taking the piss. Moreover, they see a community of activists, charities and law firms conspiring to spring any and all deportees from planes using any grounds whatsoever at the last minute. When challenged, they don't address any of the above and merely call for more "safe routes" which, if applied worldwide, would potentially result in millions of claimants - just look at how broad the eligibility criteria are.

    It's clear we need something fairer, that distinguishes genuine claimants from those looking to economically migrate, protects and priorities the most vulnerable, that balances those coming to the UK v. those being hosted in temporary camps closer to their homes (yes, there is a cap of how many we'd democratically accept), and that challenges vile regimes to change. We can't help everyone - and we must choose.

    Activists and the law firms that work with them will start to get a fair hearing when they start to talk about real solutions rather than accusing those who criticise them as having base motives, or worse.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    He's a sensible man. There's no need to endorse, no one doubts which he'd prefer.
    Absolutely, this is one area he's entirely appropriate to abstain. UK politicians don't get a vote here.

    Lets see if he continues abstaining on issues like local restrictions, the 10pm rule, the rule of six etc - that's surely more relevant to his position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818

    NOTE @HYUFD can be highly selective in the polls he reports here. Make your own check here
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

    538 final 2016 EC prediction Hillary 302 Trump 235.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Result Trump 304 Hillary 227, so I think the polls I posted are just as likely to be accurate as Nate Silver
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    Sort of on topic.



    Is it my imagination or is there a vast increase in every fcuker and their aunty with an arguable expertise in one area believing that they're eminently qualified to pronounce on all sorts of shit?
    (dangerous observation for PB I accept)
    Fine tradition among amateur debaters on a forum as opposed to would be members of the commentariat seeking, successfully or otherwise, to influence national discussion.

    Politicians get a bit of a pass as they are decision makers even on things they know nothing about.

    The great thing is mouthing off about another area of expertise with undue assurance is truly cross party. Its definitely increased during Brexit.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,518
    FPT:

    Good morning all. Last night I asserted that R has been above 1 since the pubs opened, and some PBers questioned this claim. I didn't have a chance to respond, as I wanted to go to bed!

    So, looking at the "Cases by Specimen Date" data, the 7-day average reached a minimum on 1st July, and has been rising since then. Now doesn't that coincide with the reopening of pubs?

    What do you recommend?

    A complete closure unless and until we get a vaccine?

    I would also direct this question to @Andy_Cooke
    I have answered this a couple of times before:

    - Rapid, cheap, ubiquitous testing, concentrated on high-dispersal situations (where super-spreading could be possible) would be the biggest single factor
    - Sticking with a simple set of restrictions and policing them properly
    - Supporting sectors that are unavoidably badly hit (pubs, clubs, cinemas, airlines, etc) in order to preserve them for when we can use them fully again and to enable them to continue operating under stringent restrictions


  • Good. Morning.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,287

    HYUFD said:
    The correct decision by Starmer. As PM he will have to deal with whoever is President
    A public endorsement would be a political hostage to fortune like no other. Stay out of other countries' elections - albeit not a maxim followed by either Obama or Trump.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.
    Down with all reminders of racial oppression and the use of slave labour! Away with them forever!

    Signed

    A Porsche driver
    Have you got your test result yet?

    My wife and I were talking about this a few days ago; so far as we know no-one in our families received reparations for freed slaves. However, we have no idea whether any of our ancestors were sailors on the ships which carried the poor souls across the Atlantic, and my wife's family, as cotton mill workers, undoubtedly benefited from being able to work with the cheap cotton the South produced, although some were probably among the Lancashire people who, at personal hardship, supported the Ant-Slavery side in the American Civil War.
    So it's complicated.
    Not yet, but not been 24 hours yet

    Very good point. There can't be a white Englishman alive without an ancestor who made a living out of the slave trade one way or another. What I'd like to see rather than twattery over statues is some serious economic history - slavery and ancillary activities as a % of GDP and overseas trade, 1600-1850, which I expect would expose the UK as a slaving nation like Saudi Arabia is an oil nation, rather than a lot of lovely blokes with a few bad tory slave-trader eggs getting statues made of themselves.

    Didn't know about those Lancastrians. I am from there myself so will claim them as forebears from now on.
    Thanks. Agree, although incidentally I describe myself as 'British', the majority of my DNA being Welsh. The rest is a 'right mix'; mostly English, but some Scots, Irish, even a bit of Swedish!

    On the Lancastrian point have a look at the Revealing Histories site. There's a section on Rochdale, my wife's home town, as follows:
    'The area was also graciously recognised for its support in the liberation struggle against slavery, when cotton workers in Rochdale mills refused to handle slave-grown cotton in support for the blockade of the southern states cotton exports. During the cotton famine (1862-3), the people of Lancashire received donations of food carried from the USA by the ship George Griswold, specially donated by President Lincoln. One of these barrels (the only remaining one) is now on display at Touchstones Rochdale.'

    There are similar entries for Manchester etc.
    I haven't seen a good academic quality study of the proportion of GDP etc involved in slavery, in the UK. It would make an interesting study. And probably a thick book.

    Mind you, I am still digging around in the data to try and come up with an estimate of the peak proportion of GDP that was devoted to manufacturing in the UK. You'd think that would be a common statistic.....
    There are at least two PhD's theses in there for someone. Almost certainly more. Probably keep a professor in tenure for life, with a constant stream of students. And think of the extra income from newspaper articles, TV appearances and so on.
    There is surely important philosophical question there as well -- whether Britain ended slavery knowing it would take a significant economic hit for doing the right thing.
    At the tail end of R4's Today this am there was a discussion of a reassessment of Nelson (no doubt to be another skirmish in the culture war). The director of the Greenwich Museums tended to the view that the abolition of slavery was more a pragmatic economic decision (to Britain's benefit) re-framed as a moral crusade by those 'great propagandists' the Victorians.
    Doesn't really matter. The right thing remains right even if motive was not purely noble, and if people made themselves believe it is for moral reasons maybe they'll be more likely to do other moral things.

    After all, the myths of magna carta and the US constitution have been pretty powerful even where the reality was less pure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Good that they are leading the data by specimen date rather than reporting date.
  • We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    I could cash out my Biden EC supremacy for £1,965 and this would constitute one of my biggest ever profits on a single politics spread bet. But I'm not closing it. I'm letting it run. So if it turns out I'm calling this election wrong and Trump wins I will require a revolver and a tumbler of Teachers. Mind you, I'd probably need that anyway, with the prospect of 4 more years of him, regardless of my betting result. I once did a thought experiment whereby I asked myself, if I could pay a sum of money and by doing so ensure the defeat of Donald Trump at the polls in November 2020, how much would I be prepared to pay? The answer I came up with - and this is totally serious - is £25,000. For comparison, my similar answer for Remain to have won the Ref in 2016 and Labour to have won either the 17 or 19 general elections is only £5,000 and £10,000 respectively. On a more micro level - and in reference to the PT - I would pay £100 to have Priti Patel replaced as Home Secretary by somebody less illiberal and with more brains, but if it were simply a like-for-like swap then, no, my wallet would stay closed. But anyway, all hypothetical.
  • HYUFD said:

    The latest numbers over the last 24 hours suggest a narrow Biden win, certainly not a Biden landslide, with a chance of a Trump win if he wins Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as Trump is back in front in Ohio, Florida and Georgia.









    On balance I expect Biden to win the popular vote by 6% and win 334/5 electoral college votes which is more or less the same as my prediction 2 months or so ago. Not sure about ME-2.

    I think Florida and North Carolina will only go to Biden by 1% or so but he should win them both if he is around or above 6% in the national popular vote. Of course given Trump's home state advantage it would not be surprising to see him still win Florida (and North Carolina)

    Michigan and Wisconsin should exactly mirror the popular vote (at least in that scenario with Pennsylvania very fractionally better for Biden.

    To a lesser extent I would be also be a bit surprised if Biden does not win Arizona by 2/3% given that Trump only won it by 3.5% last time (and yes I know Trafalgar group had Trump 4% ahead there).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    edited October 12

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    NOTE @HYUFD can be highly selective in the polls he reports here. Make your own check here
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

    538 final 2016 EC prediction Hillary 302 Trump 235.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Result Trump 304 Hillary 227, so I think the polls I posted are just as likely to be accurate as Nate Silver
    538 were quite accurate in 2016. The 28.6% chance he gave was entirely reasonable. That a 28% chance comes in shouldn't be too shocking and doesn't prove inaccuracy.

    The projection for Hillary's share was almost spot on too. What was most inaccurate was the prediction for Johnson was overestimated reducing Trump's share. People who said they would vote Johnson instead of Trump went for Trump on the day. That's not the case this time. There is very little third party share to squeeze this time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    FPT

    The "right" will attack "activist lawyers" for exploiting loopholes for human rights purposes whilst simultaneously supporting corporations for exploiting tax loopholes, claiming that if people want them to pay tax, they need to change the tax system.

    ☢️ Hypocrisy alert. Hypocrisy alert. ☢️
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407
    kinabalu said:

    I could cash out my Biden EC supremacy for £1,965 and this would constitute one of my biggest ever profits on a single politics spread bet. But I'm not closing it. I'm letting it run. So if it turns out I'm calling this election wrong and Trump wins I will require a revolver and a tumbler of Teachers. Mind you, I'd probably need that anyway, with the prospect of 4 more years of him, regardless of my betting result. I once did a thought experiment whereby I asked myself, if I could pay a sum of money and by doing so ensure the defeat of Donald Trump at the polls in November 2020, how much would I be prepared to pay? The answer I came up with - and this is totally serious - is £25,000. For comparison, my similar answer for Remain to have won the Ref in 2016 and Labour to have won either the 17 or 19 general elections is only £5,000 and £10,000 respectively. On a more micro level - and in reference to the PT - I would pay £100 to have Priti Patel replaced as Home Secretary by somebody less illiberal and with more brains, but if it were simply a like-for-like swap then, no, my wallet would stay closed. But anyway, all hypothetical.

    I wonder about this too sometimes. 25 grand seems a bit on the low side tbh, I suspect I have less money than you but would still happily go higher!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    edited October 12
    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.
    Rule of 6 does not apply here, and hasn't for weeks.

    Does economic damage only matter if it's in the South East?
  • RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
  • HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,502
    Not good timing for a government campaign suggesting that ballet dancers might want to retrain for a new career.

  • RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    And you are a member of Sage then
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428

    RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    For what it's worth I don't agree. I don't think a national lockdown is either desirable or beneficial. We need something sustainable for the long term.

    I don't know why we can't do local authority-wide testing like China are doing?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    How do you know they won't work? This is another increase in the level of restrictions in the affected areas. They haven't been under lockdown for months as you stated.
  • We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    It was never out of control in New Zealand.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,815
    Is it just me or is the mid-west swing state polling weirdly sticky in the 5%-7% range? I wonder if everybody's weighting for something that throws the baby out with the bathwater, like 2020 presidential voting intention.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    How do you know they won't work? This is another increase in the level of restrictions in the affected areas. They haven't been under lockdown for months as you stated.
    These restrictions will be totally ignored. They're too complicated and difficult to understand. We need a simple nationwide policy along with Government support and a working track and trace system.

    Lockdown 2.0 wasn't inevitable. Johnson made it such.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    edited October 12
    People probably will need to get jobs in areas they don't like and aren't good at. Sucks, but what can you do when mass joblessness occurs? Since the gov cannot secure everyone's job forever should they say nothing?

    I grant that particular message at this time, probably seems harsher than intended though.
  • RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    It was never out of control in New Zealand.
    Because they took decisive action. We floundered around, not once but twice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    National lockdown took many weeks to take effect in figures IIRC.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    It was never out of control in New Zealand.
    Because they took decisive action. We floundered around, not once but twice.
    Also completely ignoring the differences between the countries.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    Are you claiming that R was above 1 from 4 July onwards?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    How do you know they won't work? This is another increase in the level of restrictions in the affected areas. They haven't been under lockdown for months as you stated.
    These restrictions will be totally ignored. They're too complicated and difficult to understand. We need a simple nationwide policy along with Government support and a working track and trace system.

    Lockdown 2.0 wasn't inevitable. Johnson made it such.
    Are we seriously back to this "too complicated" bollocks?
  • kle4 said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    National lockdown took many weeks to take effect in figures IIRC.
    And we've had months of local lockdowns. It hasn't worked.
  • HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    You are talking utter nonsense

    How can Boris be blamed in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, France, Spain, and the greater part of Europe

    And as far as New Zealand is concerned have you ever been there and in controlling covid they have destroyed their tourism
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    How do you know they won't work? This is another increase in the level of restrictions in the affected areas. They haven't been under lockdown for months as you stated.
    These restrictions will be totally ignored. They're too complicated and difficult to understand. We need a simple nationwide policy along with Government support and a working track and trace system.

    Lockdown 2.0 wasn't inevitable. Johnson made it such.
    Are we seriously back to this "too complicated" bollocks?
    They are absolutely too complicated as I explained last night.
  • We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    Are you claiming that R was above 1 from 4 July onwards?
    As I explained to you yesterday, R went below 1 because of the lockdown. To claim otherwise is just nonsense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    Spain now has had more Covid deaths per head than the UK as has Belgium, France and Russia now have had far more Covid cases than the UK has and France will likely overtake the UK soon on Covid deaths per head too.

    In Europe only Germany can be said to have done significantly better than we have and we are now moving more towards the German approach.

    New Zealand is facing its worst recession for decades, South Korea has managed to contain Covid just as much by mask wearing and social distancing and testing without the economic damage New Zealand has had and without the lockdown New Zealand imposed.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-economy-oecd-idUSKCN2570NH
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    If there have been local lockdown for months, why are there complaints about new restrictions about to be introduced?
    I am not complaining about the restrictions themselves - although I think they're unclear for many - but the fact they won't work.

    We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
    How do you know they won't work? This is another increase in the level of restrictions in the affected areas. They haven't been under lockdown for months as you stated.
    These restrictions will be totally ignored. They're too complicated and difficult to understand. We need a simple nationwide policy along with Government support and a working track and trace system.

    Lockdown 2.0 wasn't inevitable. Johnson made it such.
    Are we seriously back to this "too complicated" bollocks?
    They are absolutely too complicated as I explained last night.
    I can write out the restrictions in a one line summary per tier. They couldn't have made it any easier if they had tried.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    Are you claiming that R was above 1 from 4 July onwards?
    As I explained to you yesterday, R went below 1 because of the lockdown. To claim otherwise is just nonsense.
    It went below 1 then and stayed below 1 after then. Every day that R was below 1 after lockdown was lifted shows your claim that only a lockdown ensures R is below 1 is nonsense.

    R is falling now, without a national lockdown.
  • Lockdown 2.0 is incoming, the Government knows that. They squandered a golden opportunity in July to get ahead of this thing.

    Instead, Johnson said get back to work, get back to the pub. Half price meals. All over by Christmas. Cummings also did not help.

    He is entirely to blame for this mess.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659

    FPT:

    Good morning all. Last night I asserted that R has been above 1 since the pubs opened, and some PBers questioned this claim. I didn't have a chance to respond, as I wanted to go to bed!

    So, looking at the "Cases by Specimen Date" data, the 7-day average reached a minimum on 1st July, and has been rising since then. Now doesn't that coincide with the reopening of pubs?

    What do you recommend?

    A complete closure unless and until we get a vaccine?

    I would also direct this question to @Andy_Cooke
    I have answered this a couple of times before:

    - Rapid, cheap, ubiquitous testing, concentrated on high-dispersal situations (where super-spreading could be possible) would be the biggest single factor
    - Sticking with a simple set of restrictions and policing them properly
    - Supporting sectors that are unavoidably badly hit (pubs, clubs, cinemas, airlines, etc) in order to preserve them for when we can use them fully again and to enable them to continue operating under stringent restrictions


    Apologies, I missed that before.

    Thanks for the reply – all seems very sensible.

    Interesting that you'd keep pubs open.

  • We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    Are you claiming that R was above 1 from 4 July onwards?
    As I explained to you yesterday, R went below 1 because of the lockdown. To claim otherwise is just nonsense.
    It went below 1 then and stayed below 1 after then. Every day that R was below 1 after lockdown was lifted shows your claim that only a lockdown ensures R is below 1 is nonsense.

    R is falling now, without a national lockdown.
    The only thing that has got R below 1, is a national lockdown. If it's above 1 it's still exponential, as I explained the virus is out of control. Given enough time we will be back at March.
  • Must get back to work! Talk soon
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    Spain now has had more deaths per head thank the UK as has Belgium, France and Russia now have had far more cases than the UK has and France will likely overtake the UK soon on deaths per head too.

    In Europe only Germany can be said to have done significantly better than we have and we are now moving more towards the Germany approach.

    New Zealand is facing its worst recession for decades, South Korea has managed to contain Covid just as much by mask wearing and testing without the economic damage New Zealand has had and without the lockdown New Zealand imposed.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-economy-oecd-idUSKCN2570NH
    I take most of these points but France will have to have quite the surge to pass our dph rate.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,691
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    It was never out of control in New Zealand.
    Why the comparison with NZ anyway? UK is a mere 20 miles from rest of Europe, and in Heathrow has one of the busiest airports in the world. NZ is remote - 2500 miles from nearest land mass.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    kle4 said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    National lockdown took many weeks to take effect in figures IIRC.
    And we've had months of local lockdowns. It hasn't worked.
    Not all lockdowns are the same. Why would you assume a harsher local restriction has the same effect as a less harsh one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 36,196
    edited October 12

    Lockdown 2.0 is incoming, the Government knows that. They squandered a golden opportunity in July to get ahead of this thing.

    Instead, Johnson said get back to work, get back to the pub. Half price meals. All over by Christmas. Cummings also did not help.

    He is entirely to blame for this mess.

    You are not helping yourself with the nonsense you are spouting this morning

    You ignore that all the UK First Ministers are involved in this and the fight against covid both here and across Europe is hard and complex

    Mistakes have been made but then that is across all countries
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    It was never out of control in New Zealand.
    Because they took decisive action. We floundered around, not once but twice.
    New Zealand is a sparsely populated isolated backwater. The UK is a densley populated, global commercial hub serving as the gateway for the east coast of North America and continental Europe. It is in no way a useful comparison.
    Quite. We've done badly when compared with plenty of more comparable places so there's no need to use poor ones.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    Given that you are so completely convinced that we need a national lockdown and nothing else will work . . . if we don't have a national lockdown and the virus comes back under control (R <= 1) then will you praise the Government for making work something that you thought could not work?</p>
    Well it's not worked so far and we've had local lockdowns for months. The only thing in this country that got R below 1 was a national lockdown. As we came out, R started to rise as people were told to get back to work and the pub and to forgot about COVID. That is all down to Johnson.
    Are you claiming that R was above 1 from 4 July onwards?
    As I explained to you yesterday, R went below 1 because of the lockdown. To claim otherwise is just nonsense.
    It went below 1 then and stayed below 1 after then. Every day that R was below 1 after lockdown was lifted shows your claim that only a lockdown ensures R is below 1 is nonsense.

    R is falling now, without a national lockdown.
    The only thing that has got R below 1, is a national lockdown. If it's above 1 it's still exponential, as I explained the virus is out of control. Given enough time we will be back at March.
    No you are categorically wrong. R was not below 1 only during national lockdown, it was below 1 for months after lockdown ended.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659
    HYUFD said:

    The latest numbers over the last 24 hours suggest a narrow Biden win, certainly not a Biden landslide, with a chance of a Trump win if he wins Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as Trump is back in front in Ohio, Florida and Georgia.









    I left a note for you on the other thread – you seem to post polls late, almost a day late at times.

    If you visit 538, you will see them as they appear –– which is better for betting purposes than waiting 24 hours.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    A lockdown is when your are not allowed to leave your home except for food and medicine. There's never been a lockdown in the UK, and nothing suggested today is going to come close to one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    Lockdown 2.0 is incoming, the Government knows that. They squandered a golden opportunity in July to get ahead of this thing.

    Instead, Johnson said get back to work, get back to the pub. Half price meals. All over by Christmas. Cummings also did not help.

    He is entirely to blame for this mess.

    I think we get the picture.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,385
    We really are heading towards a national lockdown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Stocky said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    It was never out of control in New Zealand.
    Why the comparison with NZ anyway? UK is a mere 20 miles from rest of Europe, and in Heathrow has one of the busiest airports in the world. NZ is remote - 2500 miles from nearest land mass.
    Because it is the most useful comparator if your goal is to put the UK in the worst possible light.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Sandpit said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    A lockdown is when your are not allowed to leave your home except for food and medicine. There's never been a lockdown in the UK, and nothing suggested today is going to come close to one.
    They'd be in for a real shock if they needed to apply to their local constabulary for a permit to go out for shopping, and be limited to two of those per week.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Sandpit said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    A lockdown is when your are not allowed to leave your home except for food and medicine. There's never been a lockdown in the UK, and nothing suggested today is going to come close to one.
    It is like all the talk about austerity in the UK when government expenditure was going up not down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12

    HYUFD said:

    The latest numbers over the last 24 hours suggest a narrow Biden win, certainly not a Biden landslide, with a chance of a Trump win if he wins Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as Trump is back in front in Ohio, Florida and Georgia.









    I left a note for you on the other thread – you seem to post polls late, almost a day late at times.

    If you visit 538, you will see them as they appear –– which is better for betting purposes than waiting 24 hours.
    All those polls came out within the last 24 hours, there has been no change in the national picture since then and I am quite happy to post them depending on when I am available and will continue to do so.

    As I also posted 538 got 2016 completely wrong, so the information I post is just as likely to be of use as them
  • This press conference from Downing Street is sobering and time for everyone to follow the advice and instructions

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,385
    RobD said:
    Well thats long Covid. Which might have even more of an impact than the actual deaths.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,847
    Sir Keir is onside with the prosecution of Darren Grimes
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,518

    FPT:

    Good morning all. Last night I asserted that R has been above 1 since the pubs opened, and some PBers questioned this claim. I didn't have a chance to respond, as I wanted to go to bed!

    So, looking at the "Cases by Specimen Date" data, the 7-day average reached a minimum on 1st July, and has been rising since then. Now doesn't that coincide with the reopening of pubs?

    What do you recommend?

    A complete closure unless and until we get a vaccine?

    I would also direct this question to @Andy_Cooke
    I have answered this a couple of times before:

    - Rapid, cheap, ubiquitous testing, concentrated on high-dispersal situations (where super-spreading could be possible) would be the biggest single factor
    - Sticking with a simple set of restrictions and policing them properly
    - Supporting sectors that are unavoidably badly hit (pubs, clubs, cinemas, airlines, etc) in order to preserve them for when we can use them fully again and to enable them to continue operating under stringent restrictions


    Apologies, I missed that before.

    Thanks for the reply – all seems very sensible.

    Interesting that you'd keep pubs open.

    There's minimal risk if you take a fast spit test as you go in.
    Sure, it'll miss a few people, but if you prevent 80%+ of super-spreader events, R drops massively.

    Unfortunately they didn't sort out rapid testing like this because they didn't like the false negatives - but literally all the restrictions are aimed at playing the numbers game in the first place!
    We accept that some cases are going to get through; we just aim to keep the number below replenishment rate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817
    kle4 said:

    People probably will need to get jobs in areas they don't like and aren't good at. Sucks, but what can you do when mass joblessness occurs? Since the gov cannot secure everyone's job forever should they say nothing?

    I grant that particular message at this time, probably seems harsher than intended though.
    Encouraging people to think about their future career is a bloody good idea right now.

    There's a lot of jobs that won't be coming back, and also a lot of people sitting idle on one of the many schemes, who could spend their time productively learning a new skill.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 12
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    Spain now has had more deaths per head thank the UK as has Belgium, France and Russia now have had far more cases than the UK has and France will likely overtake the UK soon on deaths per head too.

    In Europe only Germany can be said to have done significantly better than we have and we are now moving more towards the Germany approach.

    New Zealand is facing its worst recession for decades, South Korea has managed to contain Covid just as much by mask wearing and testing without the economic damage New Zealand has had and without the lockdown New Zealand imposed.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-economy-oecd-idUSKCN2570NH
    I take most of these points but France will have to have quite the surge to pass our dph rate.
    France has now had 734,974 cases to 603,716 cases in the UK and has now reached 500 deaths per million, unless you think there is some reason French old people are more likely to survive Covid than British old people then France will overtake the UK on deaths per head in a month or two, we have more obese people than France but not to that extent
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,281
    edited October 12
    Government cockups I think most people agree on:

    - being too complacent about travel from Europe in January and February
    - moving OAPs into homes from hospitals without testing them
    - developing the NHS-X app rather than using Apple/Google technology
    - closing schools at all, or at least without a clear plan to reopen them.

    The first let the virus in in the first place (at least with the numbers and speed it came), the second may have cost 10-20k lives, the third has meant we're unprepared for the second wave and the fourth has blighted a year's schooling for a generation.

    However, no. 1 accorded with expert advice, so I think it's mainly the other three I'd hold them responsible for.

    And afaik there's no evidence that Prime Minister Starmer would have done anything different on any of them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    edited October 12
    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    I could cash out my Biden EC supremacy for £1,965 and this would constitute one of my biggest ever profits on a single politics spread bet. But I'm not closing it. I'm letting it run. So if it turns out I'm calling this election wrong and Trump wins I will require a revolver and a tumbler of Teachers. Mind you, I'd probably need that anyway, with the prospect of 4 more years of him, regardless of my betting result. I once did a thought experiment whereby I asked myself, if I could pay a sum of money and by doing so ensure the defeat of Donald Trump at the polls in November 2020, how much would I be prepared to pay? The answer I came up with - and this is totally serious - is £25,000. For comparison, my similar answer for Remain to have won the Ref in 2016 and Labour to have won either the 17 or 19 general elections is only £5,000 and £10,000 respectively. On a more micro level - and in reference to the PT - I would pay £100 to have Priti Patel replaced as Home Secretary by somebody less illiberal and with more brains, but if it were simply a like-for-like swap then, no, my wallet would stay closed. But anyway, all hypothetical.

    I wonder about this too sometimes. 25 grand seems a bit on the low side tbh, I suspect I have less money than you but would still happily go higher!
    I find it interesting to ponder because it merges political outcome with personal impact in a very direct way. I suppose doing it by % of net liquid assets would be more meaningful. Can't do that now since it would be TMI but I do take that point. And if you "beat" me on this re Trump out - especially on the % metric - well this would be definitive proof that it means even more to you than it does to me. In which case hats off and you are an individual of the highest calibre. :smile:
  • Shouting and singing pressure points on the virus

    I doubt football will see crowds again before next summer
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,518
    To @Anabobazina

    As an aside, I've been worried for ages that if people focus on things that aren't the case (eg that young people are effectively immune rather than simply less likely to be seriously sick and a lot less likely to die) and gloss over that even people who are less affected will pass it on to people who are - then when it becomes incontrovertible that this is not the case, the reaction will end up being far larger than otherwise.

    I've been dreading the possibility of a second lockdown since the first one ended; my youngest is severely autistic and didn't cope well first time around. The more that people have ignored restrictions or looked to fantasy solutions, the worse it was always going to be when reality bit.

    This is not a snipe at you - but there are a lot in the media who have wibbled on with publicising a load of utter and dangerous bollocks that then gets adopted into the public mindset as reality, and we end up fucked because of it.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    Fishing said:

    Government cockups I think most people agree on:

    - being too complacent about travel from Europe in January and February
    - moving OAPs into homes from hospitals without testing them
    - developing the NHS-X app rather than using Apple/Google technology
    - closing schools at all, or at least without a clear plan to reopen them.

    The first let the virus in in the first place (at least with the numbers and speed it came), the second may have cost 10-20k lives, the third has meant we're unprepared for the second wave and the fourth has blighted a year's schooling for a generation.

    However, no. 1 accorded with expert advice, so I think it's mainly the other three I'd hold them responsible for.

    And afaik there's no evidence that Prime Minister Starmer would have done anything different on any of them.

    Reopening universities looks likes a disaster if you live in a uni town.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,140
    JVT talking about the 3 C's

    Presumably Johnson, Hancock and Cummings!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    edited October 12

    We really are heading towards a national lockdown.

    I'm sure we are. The only question is whether it is worth trying regional lockdowns or not first. Other places have them but do they work here and if not why?
  • isamisam Posts: 33,847
    Piers Morgan and GMB have been a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party on Covid, but today he got stuck into David Blunkett over Sir Keir's non opposition/political point scoring - at last.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    Fishing said:

    Government cockups I think most people agree on:

    - being too complacent about travel from Europe in January and February
    - moving OAPs into homes from hospitals without testing them
    - developing the NHS-X app rather than using Apple/Google technology
    - closing schools at all, or at least without a clear plan to reopen them.

    The first let the virus in in the first place (at least with the numbers and speed it came), the second may have cost 10-20k lives, the third has meant we're unprepared for the second wave and the fourth has blighted a year's schooling for a generation.

    However, no. 1 accorded with expert advice, so I think it's mainly the other three I'd hold them responsible for.

    And afaik there's no evidence that Prime Minister Starmer would have done anything different on any of them.

    Good post
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    edited October 12
    Government has now focussed on the wrong data: case #.

    The PCR test is full of difficulties.

    Dr John Lee:

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    No we don't with all the economic damage that will bring.

    We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.

    We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.

    Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    What a load of nonsense. The UK has dealt with this crisis terribly compared to much of Europe. And further afield, countries like New Zealand have got this under control.

    Johnson is entirely to blame.
    Spain now has had more deaths per head thank the UK as has Belgium, France and Russia now have had far more cases than the UK has and France will likely overtake the UK soon on deaths per head too.

    In Europe only Germany can be said to have done significantly better than we have and we are now moving more towards the Germany approach.

    New Zealand is facing its worst recession for decades, South Korea has managed to contain Covid just as much by mask wearing and testing without the economic damage New Zealand has had and without the lockdown New Zealand imposed.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-economy-oecd-idUSKCN2570NH
    I take most of these points but France will have to have quite the surge to pass our dph rate.
    France has now had 734,974 cases to 603,716 cases in the UK and has now reached 500 deaths per million, unless you think there is some reason French old people are more likely to survive Covid than British old people then France will overtake the UK on deaths per head in a month or two, we have more obese people than France but not to that extent
    I don't think that, but there deaths will need to be significantly above ours for an extended time to exceed our rate. Is that likely when our second wave appears to be running a little behind theirs?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    Imagine getting COVID and then waking up in a Sunderland "nightingale" hospital. I dread to think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    Government has now focussed on the wrong data: case #.

    The PCR test is full of difficulties.

    Dr John Lee:

    Hospitalisations are also going up though, so the rates of infection must be going up, surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    Imagine getting COVID and then waking up in a Sunderland "nightingale" hospital. I dread to think.

    The photos from the one in London didn't look that bad.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 759

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    What is your goal? It’s worth noting that the proportion of ICU patients that die of covid has already reduced by about a third since March/April, due to quite simple tweaks in intervention.

    When we shortly have a vaccine that reduces IFR by say a further 50%, will that be enough for you to advocate living with the virus and people taking charge of their own destinies? Or do we need a vaccine that reduces IFR by 60%? 90%? 100%?!

    Or is that you prefer to live in a state of perpetual mask wearing, social distancing, restricted social gathering and intermittent closure of the economy for its own end?

    I am reminded of Macauley Culkin and his new roller skates in Home Alone. Never wore them because he didn’t want to make them dirty and then before he knew it he outgrew them. Life can be a bit like that.

    There’s also a touch of Monty Python and the Four Yorkshireman going on with people getting affronted by the word “lockdown” because some countries had stricter lockdown laws than others.

    “House? You were lucky to have a HOUSE! We used to live in one room, all hundred and twenty-six of us, no furniture”.

    Outlawing families from seeing each other if they are more than 6 people is now considered normal even in “green” areas. I don’t care what you call it, lockdown or whatever else. It’s certainly not normal, democratic or desirable. And yes I am aware that the unimpeded spread covid causes an amount of excess death (we can argue the toss of how much).

    Enough is enough. Time for this government to go and someone else to stand up and start treating everyone like grownups.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,140

    Imagine getting COVID and then waking up in a Sunderland "nightingale" hospital. I dread to think.

    John Lennon rejected that Lyric.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,428
    RobD said:

    Imagine getting COVID and then waking up in a Sunderland "nightingale" hospital. I dread to think.

    The photos from the one in London didn't look that bad.
    To make matters worse, it's in Washington rather than actually in Sunderland. If you've ever been to Washington you'd understand.
  • moonshine said:

    We are wasting more time.

    We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.

    If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.

    The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.

    What is your goal? It’s worth noting that the proportion of ICU patients that die of covid has already reduced by about a third since March/April, due to quite simple tweaks in intervention.

    When we shortly have a vaccine that reduces IFR by say a further 50%, will that be enough for you to advocate living with the virus and people taking charge of their own destinies? Or do we need a vaccine that reduces IFR by 60%? 90%? 100%?!

    Or is that you prefer to live in a state of perpetual mask wearing, social distancing, restricted social gathering and intermittent closure of the economy for its own end?

    I am reminded of Macauley Culkin and his new roller skates in Home Alone. Never wore them because he didn’t want to make them dirty and then before he knew it he outgrew them. Life can be a bit like that.

    There’s also a touch of Monty Python and the Four Yorkshireman going on with people getting affronted by the word “lockdown” because some countries had stricter lockdown laws than others.

    “House? You were lucky to have a HOUSE! We used to live in one room, all hundred and twenty-six of us, no furniture”.

    Outlawing families from seeing each other if they are more than 6 people is now considered normal even in “green” areas. I don’t care what you call it, lockdown or whatever else. It’s certainly not normal, democratic or desirable. And yes I am aware that the unimpeded spread covid causes an amount of excess death (we can argue the toss of how much).

    Enough is enough. Time for this government to go and someone else to stand up and start treating everyone like grownups.
    If you support herd immunity it is not going to happen

    The public put health before wealth
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,861
    HYUFD said:

    The latest numbers over the last 24 hours suggest a narrow Biden win, certainly not a Biden landslide, with a chance of a Trump win if he wins Pennsylvania or Wisconsin as Trump is back in front in Ohio, Florida and Georgia.









    Why do you only post polls that are favourable to Trump? The polling average for Florida had Biden up by between 4% and 5%. Insider Advantage are the ONLY pollster who have Trump up in Florida in the last couple of weeks. The day before the one you cite Quinnipiac University (a more than decient polling outfit) had Biden up by 11. The day after the one you cite, Redfield & Wilton Strategies had Biden up by 5. You never post any of these?

    Now, I accept that in 2016 Trafalgar Group were about the only pollster who had Trump winning in Wis and Pa. This year, though, they have Biden ahead in both (albeit by less than others), but their experience means I accept that outliers can be correct. But you are not basing the polls you post on any science I can see, except they are all contrarian.

    Last time 538 gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning - a better chance than a penalty in the Premier League not being converted - about 1 in 4. Hardly impossible odds, and they certainly made Trump value on Betfair at the time, but everyone leaps in to kick 538 for their 2016 performance. This year they give him slightly less than a 1 in 6 chance (currently) - literally the roll of a dice. Make of that what you will.
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