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For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved –
For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved – politicalbetting.com
Very little movement on the WH2020 spread betting markets from SportingIndex https://t.co/RbR47W4MZc pic.twitter.com/GfJVOJGHEI
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So, at present, it's ending up as a plague on both your houses. As with so many issues around asylum/immigration there is no real sensible conversation going on.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315461005397426176?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315455623694364672?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315452817243602945?s=20
https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/1315394525699944449?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315452581389402112?s=20
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
We know what happens is the following:
(1) Those who want to come to the UK and with the means to pay people smugglers aim to do so
(2) This tends to be (80%+) men in their 20s & 30s from middle income countries, particularly Iran and Iraq
(3) This is because it costs thousands of pounds (sometimes into five figures) to get here
(4) Some are legitimate claimants, but many are not
(5) The illegitimate ones know they need to fit the criteria, and need a story accordingly
(6) They often destroy their travel documents if this might contradict it - and learn a new backstory instead
(7) They know they mustn't claim asylum in any other Western country first, or they will be sent back there
(8) That once they cross 50% of the way across the channel they'll be able to lodge a British claim
(9) That the UK really struggles to deport failed asylum seekers; the process can take years with multiple appeal routes available
(10) They know that once settled they may be able to exercise the "right to family life" to bring over immediate dependents - and can communicate their success back to those still at home too
I could add an (11) which is that there are millions of far poorer vulnerable women and children around the world who desperately need refuge, somewhere, who never get a look in.
This is what people object to - they know the system is open to abuse. Many are taking the piss. Moreover, they see a community of activists, charities and law firms conspiring to spring any and all deportees from planes using any grounds whatsoever at the last minute. When challenged, they don't address any of the above and merely call for more "safe routes" which, if applied worldwide, would potentially result in millions of claimants - just look at how broad the eligibility criteria are.
It's clear we need something fairer, that distinguishes genuine claimants from those looking to economically migrate, protects and priorities the most vulnerable, that balances those coming to the UK v. those being hosted in temporary camps closer to their homes (yes, there is a cap of how many we'd democratically accept), and that challenges vile regimes to change. We can't help everyone - and we must choose.
Activists and the law firms that work with them will start to get a fair hearing when they start to talk about real solutions rather than accusing those who criticise them as having base motives, or worse.
Lets see if he continues abstaining on issues like local restrictions, the 10pm rule, the rule of six etc - that's surely more relevant to his position.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Result Trump 304 Hillary 227, so I think the polls I posted are just as likely to be accurate as Nate Silver
Politicians get a bit of a pass as they are decision makers even on things they know nothing about.
The great thing is mouthing off about another area of expertise with undue assurance is truly cross party. Its definitely increased during Brexit.
- Rapid, cheap, ubiquitous testing, concentrated on high-dispersal situations (where super-spreading could be possible) would be the biggest single factor
- Sticking with a simple set of restrictions and policing them properly
- Supporting sectors that are unavoidably badly hit (pubs, clubs, cinemas, airlines, etc) in order to preserve them for when we can use them fully again and to enable them to continue operating under stringent restrictions
After all, the myths of magna carta and the US constitution have been pretty powerful even where the reality was less pure.
We need a national lockdown and we need it now, it is clear cases are continuing to rise and are still out of control. We have had local lockdowns for months and they have not helped.
If the Government hadn't been so incompetent and had got its act together in July, we wouldn't need this cause of action but alas they did not and hence we now need a new national lockdown.
The first thing is to close all restaurants and pubs down and provide immediate Government support.
I think Florida and North Carolina will only go to Biden by 1% or so but he should win them both if he is around or above 6% in the national popular vote. Of course given Trump's home state advantage it would not be surprising to see him still win Florida (and North Carolina)
Michigan and Wisconsin should exactly mirror the popular vote (at least in that scenario with Pennsylvania very fractionally better for Biden.
To a lesser extent I would be also be a bit surprised if Biden does not win Arizona by 2/3% given that Trump only won it by 3.5% last time (and yes I know Trafalgar group had Trump 4% ahead there).
The projection for Hillary's share was almost spot on too. What was most inaccurate was the prediction for Johnson was overestimated reducing Trump's share. People who said they would vote Johnson instead of Trump went for Trump on the day. That's not the case this time. There is very little third party share to squeeze this time.
The "right" will attack "activist lawyers" for exploiting loopholes for human rights purposes whilst simultaneously supporting corporations for exploiting tax loopholes, claiming that if people want them to pay tax, they need to change the tax system.
☢️ Hypocrisy alert. Hypocrisy alert. ☢️
We should continue with mask wearing when in shops or public transport, museums and cinemas and places of worship and social distancing and rule of 6, enforced by heavy fines and track and trace and the NHS app is now using contact tracing with scans on barcodes for entry in virtually every cafe, restaurant and cinema in the country, they even had them at church on Sunday too.
We are now in a totally different situation from mid March when there was virtually no mask wearing and no rule of 6 and no NHS app and few were working from home.
Not just the US and Brazil and Mexico, Russia and India and South Africa but also now Spain and France have had more overall Covid cases than the UK has
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Does economic damage only matter if it's in the South East?
We need action now on a national basis. It's the only end game - and the Government knows it.
Johnson is entirely to blame.
https://twitter.com/oliverdowden/status/1315586209415073793?s=21
I don't know why we can't do local authority-wide testing like China are doing?
Lockdown 2.0 wasn't inevitable. Johnson made it such.
I grant that particular message at this time, probably seems harsher than intended though.
How can Boris be blamed in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, France, Spain, and the greater part of Europe
And as far as New Zealand is concerned have you ever been there and in controlling covid they have destroyed their tourism
In Europe only Germany can be said to have done significantly better than we have and we are now moving more towards the German approach.
New Zealand is facing its worst recession for decades, South Korea has managed to contain Covid just as much by mask wearing and social distancing and testing without the economic damage New Zealand has had and without the lockdown New Zealand imposed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-economy-oecd-idUSKCN2570NH
R is falling now, without a national lockdown.
Instead, Johnson said get back to work, get back to the pub. Half price meals. All over by Christmas. Cummings also did not help.
He is entirely to blame for this mess.
Thanks for the reply – all seems very sensible.
Interesting that you'd keep pubs open.
You ignore that all the UK First Ministers are involved in this and the fight against covid both here and across Europe is hard and complex
Mistakes have been made but then that is across all countries
If you visit 538, you will see them as they appear –– which is better for betting purposes than waiting 24 hours.
As I also posted 538 got 2016 completely wrong, so the information I post is just as likely to be of use as them
Sure, it'll miss a few people, but if you prevent 80%+ of super-spreader events, R drops massively.
Unfortunately they didn't sort out rapid testing like this because they didn't like the false negatives - but literally all the restrictions are aimed at playing the numbers game in the first place!
We accept that some cases are going to get through; we just aim to keep the number below replenishment rate.
There's a lot of jobs that won't be coming back, and also a lot of people sitting idle on one of the many schemes, who could spend their time productively learning a new skill.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/10/uk-older-people-in-care-homes-abandoned-to-die-amid-government-failures-during-covid-19-pandemic/
- being too complacent about travel from Europe in January and February
- moving OAPs into homes from hospitals without testing them
- developing the NHS-X app rather than using Apple/Google technology
- closing schools at all, or at least without a clear plan to reopen them.
The first let the virus in in the first place (at least with the numbers and speed it came), the second may have cost 10-20k lives, the third has meant we're unprepared for the second wave and the fourth has blighted a year's schooling for a generation.
However, no. 1 accorded with expert advice, so I think it's mainly the other three I'd hold them responsible for.
And afaik there's no evidence that Prime Minister Starmer would have done anything different on any of them.
I doubt football will see crowds again before next summer
As an aside, I've been worried for ages that if people focus on things that aren't the case (eg that young people are effectively immune rather than simply less likely to be seriously sick and a lot less likely to die) and gloss over that even people who are less affected will pass it on to people who are - then when it becomes incontrovertible that this is not the case, the reaction will end up being far larger than otherwise.
I've been dreading the possibility of a second lockdown since the first one ended; my youngest is severely autistic and didn't cope well first time around. The more that people have ignored restrictions or looked to fantasy solutions, the worse it was always going to be when reality bit.
This is not a snipe at you - but there are a lot in the media who have wibbled on with publicising a load of utter and dangerous bollocks that then gets adopted into the public mindset as reality, and we end up fucked because of it.
Presumably Johnson, Hancock and Cummings!!
The PCR test is full of difficulties.
Dr John Lee:
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1315593946022719488
When we shortly have a vaccine that reduces IFR by say a further 50%, will that be enough for you to advocate living with the virus and people taking charge of their own destinies? Or do we need a vaccine that reduces IFR by 60%? 90%? 100%?!
Or is that you prefer to live in a state of perpetual mask wearing, social distancing, restricted social gathering and intermittent closure of the economy for its own end?
I am reminded of Macauley Culkin and his new roller skates in Home Alone. Never wore them because he didn’t want to make them dirty and then before he knew it he outgrew them. Life can be a bit like that.
There’s also a touch of Monty Python and the Four Yorkshireman going on with people getting affronted by the word “lockdown” because some countries had stricter lockdown laws than others.
“House? You were lucky to have a HOUSE! We used to live in one room, all hundred and twenty-six of us, no furniture”.
Outlawing families from seeing each other if they are more than 6 people is now considered normal even in “green” areas. I don’t care what you call it, lockdown or whatever else. It’s certainly not normal, democratic or desirable. And yes I am aware that the unimpeded spread covid causes an amount of excess death (we can argue the toss of how much).
Enough is enough. Time for this government to go and someone else to stand up and start treating everyone like grownups.
The public put health before wealth
Now, I accept that in 2016 Trafalgar Group were about the only pollster who had Trump winning in Wis and Pa. This year, though, they have Biden ahead in both (albeit by less than others), but their experience means I accept that outliers can be correct. But you are not basing the polls you post on any science I can see, except they are all contrarian.
Last time 538 gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning - a better chance than a penalty in the Premier League not being converted - about 1 in 4. Hardly impossible odds, and they certainly made Trump value on Betfair at the time, but everyone leaps in to kick 538 for their 2016 performance. This year they give him slightly less than a 1 in 6 chance (currently) - literally the roll of a dice. Make of that what you will.