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A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong. –

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 11 in General
A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong. – politicalbetting.com

Here were the odds Ladbrokes were offering on next PM a year ago ? pic.twitter.com/iuT4G2AxJ5

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,862
    If comments are closed, how do we comment?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,639
    Like this!
  • ydoethur said:

    If comments are closed, how do we comment?

    No comment.
  • tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Wait, you're telling me the UK did just cock up, I am shocked the Tories would pretend it's the same everywhere.

    They've been lying since 2008, why stop now
    One country that really ought to be doing better is France.
    Absolutely.

    And you can agree with that - I personally think Macron is crap - but still think the UK is also rubbish
  • I been out. Trump's price has gone for a walk. What did I miss?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,140
    Comments Closed like Liverpool
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    The Netherlands always gives the impression of a sane, orderly place, a flatter, slightly friendlier version of Germany.

    You'd think they would manage this well, in a boringly sensible Dutch fashion. Yet the Netherlands is having a very bad pandemic, almost as bad as Belgium next door.

    Also having a bad second wave: Iceland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iceland/iceland-closes-bars-gyms-again-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN26Q1Q6?il=0
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Anyone who bet on those in the OP were simply contributing to Shadsy's Christmas Funds.

    Better options were available.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,763
    ydoethur said:

    If comments are closed, how do we comment?

    Whereon we cannot comment, darüber muss man schweigen.
  • LadyG said:
    Not surprised at all, if I am honest.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,639
    LadyG said:

    The Netherlands always gives the impression of a sane, orderly place, a flatter, slightly friendlier version of Germany.

    You'd think they would manage this well, in a boringly sensible Dutch fashion. Yet the Netherlands is having a very bad pandemic, almost as bad as Belgium next door.

    Also having a bad second wave: Iceland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iceland/iceland-closes-bars-gyms-again-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN26Q1Q6?il=0

    Friendlier? The Dutch are notoriously blunt. Like a Yorkshireman on a bad day.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    dixiedean said:

    LadyG said:

    The Netherlands always gives the impression of a sane, orderly place, a flatter, slightly friendlier version of Germany.

    You'd think they would manage this well, in a boringly sensible Dutch fashion. Yet the Netherlands is having a very bad pandemic, almost as bad as Belgium next door.

    Also having a bad second wave: Iceland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iceland/iceland-closes-bars-gyms-again-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN26Q1Q6?il=0

    Friendlier? The Dutch are notoriously blunt. Like a Yorkshireman on a bad day.
    Yes, that's true. OK, taller
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953
    LadyG said:
    Govt panicking about optics of only introducing new measures for the North. So in the South there's only one candidate...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,639
    Scott_xP said:
    That'll be solely to assuage the militant anti-South feeling if so.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032
    There is no off the shelf solution to this, each country has different cultural norms and different political systems. Most of Spain has now been under the same regulations for three months, in comparison to the UK quite relaxed. We are seeing local more drastic measures in urban hot spots but very few have closed shops and bars completely. The most stringent I’ve seen have been rule of six (not limited to family) and close by 11:00. There is no magic solution but clear and constant messaging helps.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    No mixing of households though. The Rule of Six has already gravely impacted my sex life, this will kill it off. If anyone obeys.

    And does it mean you can't see friends in bars or restaurants? I don't understand.
  • LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,167
    Scott_xP said:
    Antisocial Londoners won't notice the difference.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    It's also pointless if, at the same time, they keep the schools open.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    LadyG said:
    As long as they don't close the pubs, cafes and restaurants in London.
  • I see the London-hatting attitude from some is back, yawn
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    Govt panicking about optics of only introducing new measures for the North. So in the South there's only one candidate...
    As I said on the last thread, I expected London to be hit eventually, and partly for that reason. Sadiq Khan has been bleating about "extra measures" all week.

    I just didn't expect it so soon and TBH I hadn't thought of all the consequences of no household mixing.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    London is full of people living on their own who if prevented from any household mixing basically means the end of any social contact. Especially if everyone's working from home. Anything would be better than that - even if reducing maximum groups to 3 or 4.
  • I see the London-hatting attitude from some is back, yawn

    I love London, I lived and worked there for five years.
  • alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    London is full of people living on their own who if prevented from any household mixing basically means the end of any social contact. Especially if everyone's working from home. Anything would be better than that - even if reducing maximum groups to 3 or 4.
    Exactly, I'd have had groups of six outdoors for the entire country from July if it were me.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,514
    LadyG said:

    The Netherlands always gives the impression of a sane, orderly place, a flatter, slightly friendlier version of Germany.

    You'd think they would manage this well, in a boringly sensible Dutch fashion. Yet the Netherlands is having a very bad pandemic, almost as bad as Belgium next door.

    Also having a bad second wave: Iceland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iceland/iceland-closes-bars-gyms-again-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN26Q1Q6?il=0

    Have you never been to Amsterdam? And the Randstad is a particularly densely populated urban area. Much of the original Dutch outbreak was in places close to Belgium, or from where you can easily commute to Belgium, but this second wave seems to be more homegrown
  • I see the London-hatting attitude from some is back, yawn

    I love London, I lived and worked there for five years.
    Wasn't meaning you mate.
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 37
    edited October 11
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    No mixing of households though. The Rule of Six has already gravely impacted my sex life, this will kill it off. If anyone obeys.

    And does it mean you can't see friends in bars or restaurants? I don't understand.
    As someone who has been effectively in tier 2 in Wales for the last couple of weeks, that's exactly what it means.

    Of course no-one here who is still going to pubs and restaurants is paying a blind bit of notice to that requirement, and in my experience most pubs and restaurants are operating a don't ask, don't tell policy.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953
    Andy_JS said:

    LadyG said:
    As long as they don't close the pubs, cafes and restaurants in London.
    How do pubs, cafes and restaurants survive if you can only go into them on your own, or with your household?
  • alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    LadyG said:
    As long as they don't close the pubs, cafes and restaurants in London.
    How do pubs, cafes and restaurants survive if you can only go into them on your own, or with your household?
    Wasn't this amongst the confusion in some places, that you could socialise in groups if it was at a restaurant
  • If semi-lockdown 2.0 comes into place in London, I wonder what that means for commuters and visitors?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    The average age of people dying from Covid-19 is 82.4.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,763
    Those odds all imply that a thing is more likely than not, not to happen. Each thing did not in fact happen. Not sure if that is getting it wrong.
  • alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    LadyG said:
    As long as they don't close the pubs, cafes and restaurants in London.
    How do pubs, cafes and restaurants survive if you can only go into them on your own, or with your household?
    Wasn't this amongst the confusion in some places, that you could socialise in groups if it was at a restaurant
    In my experience in lockdown Wales by turning a blind eye and operating don't ask, don't tell as a policy. If politicians really believe this isn't happening they are more naive than even I thought.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,514
    Of course the reason 2020 has been such a crazy year is because, at sometime towards the end of last year, a pangolin ate some batshit
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953
    edited October 11
    Presumably they'll have to shut the House of Parliament bars...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Scott_xP said:
    Does twitter know something we don't?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    I been out. Trump's price has gone for a walk. What did I miss?

    He has said today that having had the virus he now has a "protective glow". Must have lost another 1m or so votes I'd have thought. But no, no big news or "wow" polls as far as I know. Perhaps just the dawning on the herd that he is unelectable after a weekend to mull it over. Noteworthy that Betfair has moved from 2.95 to 3.4 but the spreads have not moved at all. Supremacy still 94/102.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    No mixing of households though. The Rule of Six has already gravely impacted my sex life, this will kill it off. If anyone obeys.

    And does it mean you can't see friends in bars or restaurants? I don't understand.
    As someone who has been effectively in tier 2 in Wales for the last couple of weeks, that's exactly what it means.

    Of course no-one here who is still going to pubs and restaurants is paying a blind bit of notice to that requirement, and in my experience most pubs and restaurants are operating a don't ask, don't tell policy.
    That's all very well, until the police start carrying out spot checks...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    A good thread for the pearl clutches who are aghast at the Dems comtemplating changing the size of the Supreme Court.

  • I love London, a great global city that offers so much.

    My problem is that government policies on anything from culture, economy to C-19 are massively influenced by the impact on London to the huge determent of all else.

    Why I strongly support a Swiss style Federal system with huge devolution of powers to dozens and dozens of local assemblies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,862
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    If comments are closed, how do we comment?

    Whereon we cannot comment, darüber muss man schweigen.
    It would be beyond the Witt of man to do so.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,763
    Andy_JS said:

    The average age of people dying from Covid-19 is 82.4.

    And the average age for dying of other illnesses is 81.5. So?
  • alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    No mixing of households though. The Rule of Six has already gravely impacted my sex life, this will kill it off. If anyone obeys.

    And does it mean you can't see friends in bars or restaurants? I don't understand.
    As someone who has been effectively in tier 2 in Wales for the last couple of weeks, that's exactly what it means.

    Of course no-one here who is still going to pubs and restaurants is paying a blind bit of notice to that requirement, and in my experience most pubs and restaurants are operating a don't ask, don't tell policy.
    That's all very well, until the police start carrying out spot checks...
    Good luck with that. The police have better things to do. It's undoubtedly put some people off going to the pub, but I sat in a restaurant last week with my better half. We were undoubtedly the only single household in the entire place and the same has applied to pubs to.

    If the police aren't doing spot checks in Cardiff, I can't see them doing spot checks in any tier 2 cities in England.

    They are more interested in house parties and youths breaching the rule of 6.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659

    Scott_xP said:
    Antisocial Londoners won't notice the difference.
    Zzzzzzz.

    Utter myth.

    Best party scene and most sociable city in the world.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    No mixing of households though. The Rule of Six has already gravely impacted my sex life, this will kill it off. If anyone obeys.

    And does it mean you can't see friends in bars or restaurants? I don't understand.
    As someone who has been effectively in tier 2 in Wales for the last couple of weeks, that's exactly what it means.

    Of course no-one here who is still going to pubs and restaurants is paying a blind bit of notice to that requirement, and in my experience most pubs and restaurants are operating a don't ask, don't tell policy.
    Leicester has been like this since March. The rules on household mixing are unenforced and unenforceable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,862

    Of course the reason 2020 has been such a crazy year is because, at sometime towards the end of last year, a pangolin ate some batshit

    It’s the perfect example of chaos theory.
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    It's also pointless if, at the same time, they keep the schools open.
    The boffins did warn us; wanting to reopen schools is morally the right thing to do, but it will use up a lot of the social contact budget, so other things might have to close to compensate.

    Those of us who work in schools pointed out that, however good the plans, putting loads of snot-encrusted whelps in crowded Victorian buildings with poor ventilation, or crowded modern buildings with no ventilation, was asking for trouble.

    And here we are.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659
    Presumably if you live close to the London boundary you can just walk out into Free Essex or Free Herts or Free Surrey?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,862
    edited October 11
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,514
    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    London is full of people living on their own who if prevented from any household mixing basically means the end of any social contact. Especially if everyone's working from home. Anything would be better than that - even if reducing maximum groups to 3 or 4.
    Agreed. Socialising with members of your own household doesn't really count as socialising anyway. If I am prevented from visiting public places with people not in my household I am effectively barred from physical contact with people. Has the Government not heard of single people? Luckily I am in leafy Hampshire where it's least likely to happen.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Does twitter know something we don't?
    Recovering from the virus doesn't give you immunity, that has been disproven.

    There are many documented cases now of people getting it twice. One of my wife's colleagues currently has it for the second time (PCR-test positive both times, months of weekly testing in-between saying negative).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    Presumably if you live close to the London boundary you can just walk out into Free Essex or Free Herts or Free Surrey?

    Yes, but there has to be a boundary somewhere.
  • The anti-London attitude of a proportion of this site is tiring and makes me want to nip off for a bit until it dies down
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106
    If London goes into tier 2 lockdown based on the current data then I think hospitality should take the government to court and force them to provide all the evidence on a case by case basis, where the case is in London and where the swab was taken, whether it's students who are within a university bubble etc...

    This is going to kill the city and Sadiq is doing nothing to stop it the absolute massive c***.
  • MaxPB said:

    If London goes into tier 2 lockdown based on the current data then I think hospitality should take the government to court and force them to provide all the evidence on a case by case basis, where the case is in London and where the swab was taken, whether it's students who are within a university bubble etc...

    This is going to kill the city and Sadiq is doing nothing to stop it the absolute massive c***.

    Shaun Bailey is on the case! Oh wait he's arguing about football stadiums, something that the Mayor has no control over
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    London is full of people living on their own who if prevented from any household mixing basically means the end of any social contact. Especially if everyone's working from home. Anything would be better than that - even if reducing maximum groups to 3 or 4.
    Agreed. Socialising with members of your own household doesn't really count as socialising anyway. If I am prevented from visiting public places with people not in my household I am effectively barred from physical contact with people. Has the Government not heard of single people? Luckily I am in leafy Hampshire where it's least likely to happen.
    Somebody told me the other day that there were 4 million single people living alone.

    They are never mentioned in the endless bluster and bluffing from Johnson and his fellows.
  • For what it's worth I am in favour of a countrywide lockdown, I think these local lockdowns are however pointless and a waste of time
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,862

    MaxPB said:

    If London goes into tier 2 lockdown based on the current data then I think hospitality should take the government to court and force them to provide all the evidence on a case by case basis, where the case is in London and where the swab was taken, whether it's students who are within a university bubble etc...

    This is going to kill the city and Sadiq is doing nothing to stop it the absolute massive c***.

    Shaun Bailey is on the case! Oh wait he's arguing about football stadiums, something that the Mayor has no control over
    He’s missing his goals, apparently.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Does twitter know something we don't?
    Recovering from the virus doesn't give you immunity, that has been disproven.

    There are many documented cases now of people getting it twice. One of my wife's colleagues currently has it for the second time (PCR-test positive both times, months of weekly testing in-between saying negative).
    Wait, if that is the case surely the herd immunity strategy is a complete non-starter? I thought having the virus gave you antibodies, the same ones that the vaccines are trying to generate?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    I see the London-hatting attitude from some is back, yawn

    I don't think anyone here hates London.

    Personally I dislike some in the London-centric media who obsess over London while ignoring the rest of the country, but that's a judgement on those in the media who do that and not a judgement on either London or Londoners.

    Nor is it unique to London. It seems that as far as the Northwest is concerned some people seem to think that only consists of Manchester and Liverpool. Its the exact same thing as the obsession with London.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659

    The anti-London attitude of a proportion of this site is tiring and makes me want to nip off for a bit until it dies down

    It’s one of the very worst aspects of PB.

    Anti-London prejudice - utterly pathetic.
  • I see the London-hatting attitude from some is back, yawn

    I don't think anyone here hates London.

    Personally I dislike some in the London-centric media who obsess over London while ignoring the rest of the country, but that's a judgement on those in the media who do that and not a judgement on either London or Londoners.

    Nor is it unique to London. It seems that as far as the Northwest is concerned some people seem to think that only consists of Manchester and Liverpool. Its the exact same thing as the obsession with London.
    Wasn't it you who suggested I cycle to work from the countryside
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,551

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Does twitter know something we don't?
    Recovering from the virus doesn't give you immunity, that has been disproven.

    There are many documented cases now of people getting it twice. One of my wife's colleagues currently has it for the second time (PCR-test positiveoth times, months of weekly testing in-between saying negative).
    You are too absolute - the people getting it twice might have been the result of false positives of which there are many
  • As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    No mixing of households though. The Rule of Six has already gravely impacted my sex life, this will kill it off. If anyone obeys.

    And does it mean you can't see friends in bars or restaurants? I don't understand.
    As someone who has been effectively in tier 2 in Wales for the last couple of weeks, that's exactly what it means.

    Of course no-one here who is still going to pubs and restaurants is paying a blind bit of notice to that requirement, and in my experience most pubs and restaurants are operating a don't ask, don't tell policy.
    That's all very well, until the police start carrying out spot checks...
    Good luck with that. The police have better things to do. It's undoubtedly put some people off going to the pub, but I sat in a restaurant last week with my better half. We were undoubtedly the only single household in the entire place and the same has applied to pubs to.

    If the police aren't doing spot checks in Cardiff, I can't see them doing spot checks in any tier 2 cities in England.

    They are more interested in house parties and youths breaching the rule of 6.
    Not sure - depends whether the media are eager to publish stories of Londoners not following the rules. Of course reporting people in other cities not following the rules would actually require travelling outside of London, so easier to fly under the radar...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,514

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:
    Tier 3 is far, far more serious than Tier 2 but expect London-centric people to obsess over London going into Tier 2 if it happens, rather than the more serious implications across much of the rest of the country.
    Not being able to mix in households in London makes being there almost pointless for me. I and others will leave if/when this comes in, I'd rather isolate in the countryside (luckily I am able to do so).
    It's also pointless if, at the same time, they keep the schools open.
    The boffins did warn us; wanting to reopen schools is morally the right thing to do, but it will use up a lot of the social contact budget, so other things might have to close to compensate.

    Those of us who work in schools pointed out that, however good the plans, putting loads of snot-encrusted whelps in crowded Victorian buildings with poor ventilation, or crowded modern buildings with no ventilation, was asking for trouble.

    And here we are.
    There is little evidence of transmission in school-aged children. A lot have had tests, they mostly just have a cold https://www.tes.com/news/whitty-covid-rates-not-rising-school-age-children
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,551

    For what it's worth I am in favour of a countrywide lockdown, I think these local lockdowns are however pointless and a waste of time

    The whole thing is pointless - not especially fatal pandemics like this one do not go away with lockdowns - they merely lower the rate for a while (as seen this year). At some point we are going to have to live and not obsess about this not very fatal illness and get on with lives
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048
    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    Look at that thread by Costello. Quite a few European countries aren't doing anywhere near as bad: Norway, Germany, Finland, Sweden (arguably).

    The key seems to be a fit-for-purpose test, track and trace system, with follow up daily calls by tracers, and enforced rules on isolation.

    All this can be done, countries have done it. Britain has not. It is a basic government failure. Yes, France, Spain, Holland etc are in the same toilet, but we didn't have to be.

    Especially as we had an advantage over those other countries as we're an island, and could have done a better job not reimporting cases.

    In that context, our performance has been woeful.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    Govt panicking about optics of only introducing new measures for the North. So in the South there's only one candidate...
    Why not just make all Labour held Constituencies Tier2 or 3 and be done with it?

    It covers all the risky bits of London

    🙄
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,551

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    I am not against that but why the link? Genuinely curious
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,048

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    We're not particularly old by European standards. Germany's median age is 47.1 years, Italy 45.5, most of the EU is in the 44-45 region, and we're 40.5. I think only Norway is younger than us in Europe.

  • But why on Earth are they still allowing meetings indoors? Why not just make them outdoors unless you live alone, seems bizarre to me
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    If London goes into tier 2 lockdown based on the current data then I think hospitality should take the government to court and force them to provide all the evidence on a case by case basis, where the case is in London and where the swab was taken, whether it's students who are within a university bubble etc...

    This is going to kill the city and Sadiq is doing nothing to stop it the absolute massive c***.

    Shaun Bailey is on the case! Oh wait he's arguing about football stadiums, something that the Mayor has no control over
    He's a useless moron but also not the mayor. If this was a Labour government and Boris was the mayor I guarantee he would be out there calling it a massive scandal and kicking up a fuss.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Ah yes, after a global pandemic of a respiratory disease that can severely reduce lung function.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Does twitter know something we don't?
    Recovering from the virus doesn't give you immunity, that has been disproven.

    There are many documented cases now of people getting it twice. One of my wife's colleagues currently has it for the second time (PCR-test positive both times, months of weekly testing in-between saying negative).
    Wait, if that is the case surely the herd immunity strategy is a complete non-starter? I thought having the virus gave you antibodies, the same ones that the vaccines are trying to generate?
    Yes.

    Vaccines generally give you a stronger antibody response than even recovery does but even they're not 100% effective in part because its still possible to get it a second time. I believe even if you have antibodies you can still pick up the virus again, pass it on again, but you're more likely to recover quicker because you've already got some antibodies. But the idea you are totally immune, can't get it and can't pass it on is false.

    One thing I'm not sure about but I'm guessing if the virus does spread more ('herd immunity') it gives the virus more opportunities to evolve into another strain which evades 'immunity' from other strains.
  • RobD said:

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Ah yes, after a global pandemic of a respiratory disease that can severely reduce lung function.
    Oh so personal responsibility doesn't apply to cannabis then? Interesting
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,551

    The anti-London attitude of a proportion of this site is tiring and makes me want to nip off for a bit until it dies down

    It’s one of the very worst aspects of PB.

    Anti-London prejudice - utterly pathetic.
    Yes i suspect its because a fair few on here don't have typical London lifestyles . London is a great soulful dynamic city with a diverse culture and creative spirit.Pity covid-19 obsession is destroying it though
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Ah yes, after a global pandemic of a respiratory disease that can severely reduce lung function.
    Oh so personal responsibility doesn't apply to cannabis then? Interesting
    I was more commenting on the humorous juxtaposition of the two, to be honest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Yeah. Everyone being stoned will do wonders for economic recovery, takeaway munchies in particular.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Ah yes, after a global pandemic of a respiratory disease that can severely reduce lung function.
    Oh so personal responsibility doesn't apply to cannabis then? Interesting
    I was more commenting on the humorous juxtaposition of the two, to be honest.
    We need lots of taxes, cannabis is a good start
  • Foxy said:

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Yeah. Everyone being stoned will do wonders for economic recovery, takeaway munchies in particular.
    Lots of taxes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Foxy said:

    As we come out of COVID, we need to have a serious discussion about legalising cannabis

    Yeah. Everyone being stoned will do wonders for economic recovery, takeaway munchies in particular.
    Perhaps won't do as well for the woeful productivity numbers however.
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