Borrowing costs remain low for UK gilts and in the internal economy and the BoE has not had to expand QE for over a year. Sterling has risen against almost all the currencies of its trading partners.
This surely is a list of presents that even the grumpiest Lincolnshire poacher would be pleased to find in his stocking on Christmas Day.
Of course you haven't got all the presents you asked Santa for. Manufacturing, although growing this year, is still some 5% below pre-crisis levels and business lending and investment has not recovered in line with the rest of the economy. The West and East Midlands, the latter particularly, have been hardest hit, But the government and BoE do recognise this problem and priorities are changing to concentrate on this area from 2014 onward.
There is therefore a very good chance that if you are a good boy all year, and don't rage against St George and Guv'nor Carney, that your unfulfilled list will be satisfied by Santa in Christmases to come.
So of course I am full of seasonal good cheer. And so should you be. Merry Christmas.
chorrrrrrrrtle
Oh Mr Pole I do like a bit of festive comedy like anyone else. but that's a cracker !
HMG have done bugger all in this Parlt to address the rebalancing of the economy. This was evident from about 2011 when Chicken George got his knickers in a twist and couldn't figure out what to do next. 5 wasted years Poley old chap with the only redeeming feature being it was nowhere near as dire as Brown. Even today Osborne hasn't got a clue what he should do next.
From your linked article: " A spokesman says that Ukip is in favour of “high-speed rail”, just not HS2. Under its thinking, you could have new routes alongside existing ones, with much less pain for local residents."
My God. Was the spokesman that clueless? Where would the route 'alongside' be when it goes through towns such as Leamington, Warwick, Hemel and others, where houses and businesses are directly adjacent to the tracks?
Note the impossibility of running high-speed lines on Victorian track alignments - at 120 MPH the minimum track curve is (from memory) a little over 1,500 metres. At 250 MPH it is over 7,000 metres. HS2 has specified 8,000 metres (*) Look at a map of (say) the WCML and try altering the curves to the order of 5,000 metre radius and see how many towns you obliterate.
The objections to quadrupling (especially with high speed) existing lines outside of existing railway boundary footprints would be an order of magnitude over that of HS2.
(*) Hopes to God I've got that right.
An engineer from the HS1 project also recommended a different route.
The M40 corridor is another possible route. It is not ideal; aside from the Chilterns, from what I have heard the HS2 route has relatively good engineering ground to go over. The M40 route does not, and the road itself is hardly straight, particularly between Oxford and Banbury.
ISTR the M40 alternative was looked into early on, and was rejected. But he makes some good points.
(FX: goes through documents) Ah yes, looking at the document below, it is surprising that the expert says that the M40 option has not been looked into, as it is shown in the PDF as route 2. Page 24 and on give the reasons why it was rejected. For instance, it passes close to far more population centres, would be slower and longer.
I've spent a rather large amount of time looking into this and drawing up my own potential routes (I'm also doing the same for a possible Cambridge to Bedford line). It isn't as simple or as easy as people think, even after I've made some vast simplifications.
What matters are the starting criteria, and that is where the anti-HS2 people could be concentrating their fire. Why engineer it to such a high speed? Why Old Oak Common? What about Heathrow?
There are good answers to these, but early decisions such as these made the route chosen virtually inevitable.
Of course you haven't got all the presents you asked Santa for. Manufacturing, although growing this year, is still some 5% below pre-crisis levels and business lending and investment has not recovered in line with the rest of the economy. The West and East Midlands, the latter particularly, have been hardest hit, But the government and BoE do recognise this problem and priorities are changing to concentrate on this area from 2014 onward.
No yellow boxes to back your stats up Avery ??
Just as well as manufacturing production is actually still 10% below pre-cris levels and of course even more than that when measured against the peak reached back in 2000.
In fact the October 2013 manufacturing output was less than that in October 2010 - so much for 'March of the Makers'.
As to the wider industrial production ouput that is now lower than what this government inherited in 2010.
Thanks. I've listened to that before. Addressing one of Farage's points, the GC route is *not* an option for either high speed or greatly increased capacity for many reasons, including:
*) It has been extensively built over in Leicester and Nottingham; *) It was not a high-speed alignment. *) the southern section is still open and in heavy use. *) It does not go to Birmingham *) Where would you put the London terminus?
I'd love to see the GC reopened to south of Leicester, and it may well be worthwhile to do so, But it won't be an HS2 alternative.
(On another point, am I the only one getting **** annoying auto-run video ads on PB pages? Worse, they cover the 'pause' button up with a Google+ 'Like' button)
Thanks. I've listened to that before. Addressing one of Farage's points, the GC route is *not* an option for either high speed or greatly increased capacity for many reasons, including:
*) It has been extensively built over in Leicester and Nottingham; *) It was not a high-speed alignment. *) the southern section is still open and in heavy use. *) It does not go to Birmingham *) Where would you put the London terminus?
I'd love to see the GC reopened to south of Leicester, and it may well be worthwhile to do so, But it won't be an HS2 alternative.
(On another point, am I the only one getting **** annoying auto-run video ads on PB pages? Worse, they cover the 'pause' button up with a Google+ 'Like' button)
I was under a load of stress with work earlier, whilst trying to debate on here, and I kept getting auto run Neurofen ads! How DO they do that?!
Tony @OldManReport EU army is a great idea! I am just awaiting the day that German soldiers in tanks, roll into Athens, Warsaw or Paris to quell civil riots!!!
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
I wouldn't agree with that - they are not at all typical of most of the battleground seats.
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
Hove and Brighton Pavilion have been trending away from the Conservatives for the last 30 years , Brighton Kemptown much less so because it contains a fair bit of more natural Conservative territory from Lewes DC
Of course you haven't got all the presents you asked Santa for. Manufacturing, although growing this year, is still some 5% below pre-crisis levels and business lending and investment has not recovered in line with the rest of the economy. The West and East Midlands, the latter particularly, have been hardest hit, But the government and BoE do recognise this problem and priorities are changing to concentrate on this area from 2014 onward.
No yellow boxes to back your stats up Avery ??
Just as well as manufacturing production is actually still 10% below pre-cris levels and of course even more than that when measured against the peak reached back in 2000.
In fact the October 2013 manufacturing output was less than that in October 2010 - so much for 'March of the Makers'.
As to the wider industrial production ouput that is now lower than what this government inherited in 2010.
When Avery does not cut virtual Brazilian trees to publish his data, you can be sure he is hiding something.
The fact that industrial production is below 2010 makes it difficult for the firm of Avery, Nabavi & co. to blame Labour and everyone else other than the Tories. But they will still harp on.
Oh Mr Pole I do like a bit of festive comedy like anyone else. but that's a cracker !
HMG have done bugger all in this Parlt to address the rebalancing of the economy. This was evident from about 2011 when Chicken George got his knickers in a twist and couldn't figure out what to do next. 5 wasted years Poley old chap with the only redeeming feature being it was nowhere near as dire as Brown. Even today Osborne hasn't got a clue what he should do next.
Tex Avery king of comedy.
Don't chortle while eating mince pies and drinking brandy, Mr. Brooke. It causes your 'r's to trill.
There has been plenty of rebalancing going on in the economy.
Employment
Total market sector employment is forecast to rise by 3.1 million between the start of 2011, the beginning of the period covered by the Government’s 2010 Spending Review, and the start of 2019. This more than offsets a 1.1 million fall in general government employment
GDP Composition
With regards to the composition of nominal GDP:
• in income terms: labour income is forecast to grow more slowly than GDP in the near term, despite the strength of employment, as productivity and earnings growth remain subdued. But it picks up from 2015 as productivity growth recovers. Corporate profits have grown faster than GDP this year and are forecast to continue to do so; and
• in expenditure terms: private consumption is forecast to grow slightly faster than household income, with the saving ratio falling marginally. Private investment is forecast to recover towards its pre-crisis share of GDP, implying strong growth in business and residential investment for a sustained period. By contrast, the Government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation implies large and sustained falls in government consumption of goods and services as a share of GDP, which is projected to reach its lowest level on record in data back to 1948.
Mr. Brooke, you must have Southam Observer visiting you. The dense clouds of Habana's finest cigars are obscuring your vision.
Does anyone know if we are still to wait through the night for the last poll of the year? It's for some polling crossover goalpost transportation I may be helping with tomorrow.
Tony @OldManReport EU army is a great idea! I am just awaiting the day that German soldiers in tanks, roll into Athens, Warsaw or Paris to quell civil riots!!!
The fact that industrial production is below 2010 makes it difficult for the firm of Avery, Nabavi & co. to blame Labour and everyone else other than the Tories.
Blimey, you expect Osborne to fix up 13 years of Labour mismanagement, and against a background where virtually all advanced Western economies are showing a secular decline in manufacturing, and when the world economic position has been the worst since the 1930s, in just three years?
Osborne is an excellent Chancellor, but he's not a magician.
Ukip overtaking Greens in Brighton has two components - Ukip gaining votes or Greens losing them. People seem to be assuming any anti-Green backlash in Brighton will be small.
Brighton and Hove is about as un-UKIP as possible. Full of students, a large gay population, a big new age presence, and the most atheistic electorate in the UK. It's the UK's San Francisco.
sorry to have missed this and to interrupt the discussion but can anyone tell me why or where tim has gone this time?
Last Sat night, tim was baiting SeanT over the size of his flat, having been looking at his twitter... after 3 or 4 attempts to shut him up, Sean posted an article from an online Liverpool paper which named tim and his wife as a response... apparently tim then said something about Plato (?) which got him banned.
Personally think if you're baiting someone using their personal info, and they know your persona, you're playing with fire
Now he is apparently allowed back but is preferring martyrdom... although I suspect... oh don't go there!!
Oh Mr Pole I do like a bit of festive comedy like anyone else. but that's a cracker !
HMG have done bugger all in this Parlt to address the rebalancing of the economy. This was evident from about 2011 when Chicken George got his knickers in a twist and couldn't figure out what to do next. 5 wasted years Poley old chap with the only redeeming feature being it was nowhere near as dire as Brown. Even today Osborne hasn't got a clue what he should do next.
Tex Avery king of comedy.
Don't chortle while eating mince pies and drinking brandy, Mr. Brooke. It causes your 'r's to trill.
There has been plenty of rebalancing going on in the economy.
Employment
Total market sector employment is forecast to rise by 3.1 million between the start of 2011, the beginning of the period covered by the Government’s 2010 Spending Review, and the start of 2019. This more than offsets a 1.1 million fall in general government employment
GDP Composition
With regards to the composition of nominal GDP:
• in income terms: labour income is forecast to grow more slowly than GDP in the near term, despite the strength of employment, as productivity and earnings growth remain subdued. But it picks up from 2015 as productivity growth recovers. Corporate profits have grown faster than GDP this year and are forecast to continue to do so; and
• in expenditure terms: private consumption is forecast to grow slightly faster than household income, with the saving ratio falling marginally. Private investment is forecast to recover towards its pre-crisis share of GDP, implying strong growth in business and residential investment for a sustained period. By contrast, the Government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation implies large and sustained falls in government consumption of goods and services as a share of GDP, which is projected to reach its lowest level on record in data back to 1948.
Mr. Brooke, you must have Southam Observer visiting you. The dense clouds of Habana's finest cigars are obscuring your vision.
Tex another Looney Tune classic.
As has been pointed out you haven't rebalanced a thing bar some non-jobs in the public sector. In the productive economy manufacturing is still below peak, our balance of payments is getting uncomfortably in the red, private consumption is being fed from spending savings and if you understood the corporate sector any commitment to additional capital expenditure in 2014 won't have an effect until 2016 or 2017. If it wasn't for the fact Osborne keeps putting back my pension I'd have retired by the time the current crop of blues figure out what's going on.
To much time in the South East Pole Minor, trying getting out more. C-
sorry to have missed this and to interrupt the discussion but can anyone tell me why or where tim has gone this time?
Last Sat night, tim was baiting SeanT over the size of his flat, having been looking at his twitter... after 3 or 4 attempts to shut him up, Sean posted an article from an online Liverpool paper which named tim and his wife as a response... apparently tim then said something about Plato (?) which got him banned.
Personally think if you're baiting someone using their personal info, and they know your persona, you're playing with fire
Now he is apparently allowed back but is preferring martyrdom... although I suspect... oh don't go there!!
hold on....you mean tim exists??
thanks v much and wow sounds convoluted. It's an interesting one re. online forums as there is a funny, wholly illogical code of conduct which people fall into.
Which thread was it on or has it all been expunged?
"The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) quarterly Industrial Trends Survey reported that growth in manufacturing output and new orders for the second and third quarter of 2013 were both stronger than their long-run averages."
Note to Another Richard and Surby: supporting statistics and graphs are printed on the other side of this yellow box. Please turn over.
"The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) quarterly Industrial Trends Survey reported that growth in manufacturing output and new orders for the second and third quarter of 2013 were both stronger than their long-run averages."
Note to Another Richard and Surby: supporting statistics and graphs are printed on the other side of this yellow box. Please turn over.
sorry to have missed this and to interrupt the discussion but can anyone tell me why or where tim has gone this time?
Last Sat night, tim was baiting SeanT over the size of his flat, having been looking at his twitter... after 3 or 4 attempts to shut him up, Sean posted an article from an online Liverpool paper which named tim and his wife as a response... apparently tim then said something about Plato (?) which got him banned.
Personally think if you're baiting someone using their personal info, and they know your persona, you're playing with fire
Now he is apparently allowed back but is preferring martyrdom... although I suspect... oh don't go there!!
hold on....you mean tim exists??
thanks v much and wow sounds convoluted. It's an interesting one re. online forums as there is a funny, wholly illogical code of conduct which people fall into.
Which thread was it on or has it all been expunged?
Last Saturday nights thread... he was spinning plates (arguing with three different people simultaneously).... one of them was me sadly enough! To make sure I don't spend another Saturday evening in the same fashion I'm going down the pub tonight!
Shame he has gone really, I hope he comes back... much as I completely disagree with him on politics, a sharp opponent is good for the debate... and the Labour posters that try to imitate his style are awful.
sorry to have missed this and to interrupt the discussion but can anyone tell me why or where tim has gone this time?
Last Sat night, tim was baiting SeanT over the size of his flat, having been looking at his twitter... after 3 or 4 attempts to shut him up, Sean posted an article from an online Liverpool paper which named tim and his wife as a response... apparently tim then said something about Plato (?) which got him banned.
Personally think if you're baiting someone using their personal info, and they know your persona, you're playing with fire
Now he is apparently allowed back but is preferring martyrdom... although I suspect... oh don't go there!!
thanks again Sam - just going to watch Strictly so will catch up later!
I've spent a rather large amount of time looking into this and drawing up my own potential routes (I'm also doing the same for a possible Cambridge to Bedford line). It isn't as simple or as easy as people think, even after I've made some vast simplifications.
What matters are the starting criteria, and that is where the anti-HS2 people could be concentrating their fire. Why engineer it to such a high speed? Why Old Oak Common? What about Heathrow?
The front man from the "Stop HS2" campaign gave a speech at the UKIP conference. If its of any interest it starts 49 minutes 50 seconds into the video below.
Good to see you so full of Christmas cheer this evening, I wonder if RN is after the demolition job he received last night ;-)
Eh? I'd gone to bed, but you seemed to have completely lost the plot. You even managed to confuse the dates of the banking crisis - you seemed to think Northern Rock was at the heart of the crisis. It was of course the failure of Lehman's, not that of a two-penny ha'penny boring mortgage bank which no-one outside the UK would have heard of, and which was small even by UK standards, which marked the world banking crisis and spillover to the world economy. In any case I only chose a speech from July 2008 because you claimed, completely wrongly, that at that time Osborne was saying everything was OK with the UK economy. He wasn't, as the speech I cited proved.
You're digging your hole deeper RN.
The collapse of Lehmans didn't cause the recession as it occurred 6 months after the recession had started and which had already seen a fall in GDP equivalent to that of the 1990-1991 recession. Incidentally there was no shortage of other banking problems between Northern Rock and Lehmans - in March 2008 Bear Stearns had collapsed and HBOS nearly so (although it managed to stagger on until the autumn).
Now the pre-Lehmans recession might not have apparant to you and I doubt that Cameron and Osborne experienced it in their personal lives but it was felt by millions of people around the country. In particular by the provincial wwc voters who gave the Conservatives such huge victories in the local elections and Crewe byelection of May 2008.
As I say I doubt that the Cameroons were aware personally of the recession but did they not wonder what had caused such a sudden and strong swing to the Conservatives among wwc voters ? Did they not think that there might be an economic influence behind it ? Perhaps if there had been some sort of high profile event which suggested all was not well with the fundamentals of the British economy ?
FOR EXAMPLE A HIGH STREET BANK CRASHING IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR
After Northern Rock all it needed was an open mind, a bit of common sense and a few hours looking at the economic stats to see what a parlous state the British economy was actually in.
Now let us remember Osborne's speech of July 2008 in which he babbles about numerous things but rarely mentions matters economic.
Do you see the problem here ?
Let me explain:
OSBORNE WAS THE SHADOW CHANCELLOR - IT WAS HIS JOB TO DEMOLISH LABOUR'S ECONOMIC RECORD. YET HE SEEMED UNAWARE FIRSTLY OF HOW WEAK THE BRITISH ECONOMY FUNDAMENTALLY WAS AND SECONDLY THAT IT WAS IN A STATE OF DISINTEGRATION
And then what did Osborne do ?
Went yachting with a Russian oligarch, Mandelson and a Rothschild.
What a great visual image for a country in recession.
Happy birthday to me today. Yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Many happy returns to one of my favourite posters!
Must be a bit annoying having a birthday so close to xmas. And for people who celebrate their name day instead, that appears to be the 30th November which isn't much help either! Hope your parents celebrated your six months anti-phase birthday instead. (My old physics teacher used to do that with his daughter...)
Happy birthday to me today. Yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Many happy returns to one of my favourite posters!
Must be a bit annoying having a birthday so close to xmas. And for people who celebrate their name day instead, that appears to be the 30th November which isn't much help either! Hope your parents celebrated your six months anti-phase birthday instead. (My old physics teacher used to do that with his daughter...)
Yes, happy birthday to AndyJS!
As MBE says, it can't be easy having a birthday this time of year. I have three friends with birthdays on Christmas Day itself. One of them is just about to turn 50 and will have her "official" party in the summer so that it stands out.
I've spent a rather large amount of time looking into this and drawing up my own potential routes (I'm also doing the same for a possible Cambridge to Bedford line). It isn't as simple or as easy as people think, even after I've made some vast simplifications.
What matters are the starting criteria, and that is where the anti-HS2 people could be concentrating their fire. Why engineer it to such a high speed? Why Old Oak Common? What about Heathrow?
The front man from the "Stop HS2" campaign gave a speech at the UKIP conference. If its of any interest it starts 49 minutes 50 seconds into the video below.
Hadn't seen that before thanks, but it's obvious that UKIP have got no answer to the problem of capacity. Worse, there are some obvious mistruths in there.
Particularly funny is his claim that the rest of the world are catching up with us because we had high-speed rail in the 1970s. I'm not quite sure where to start with that one, and it is hard to take someone who says it seriously ...
I find it quite funny that UKIP are going on about environmental damage given their other policies regarding things like fracking and anti-Green policies.
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
I wouldn't agree with that - they are not at all typical of most of the battleground seats.
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
Hove and Brighton Pavilion have been trending away from the Conservatives for the last 30 years , Brighton Kemptown much less so because it contains a fair bit of more natural Conservative territory from Lewes DC
But hasn't Cameron's whole strategy been to 'de-toxify' ,'modernise' and 'greenify' the Conservative Party. That should be reversing the trend.
The Green/gay/Liberal response seems to be, as Sean_F said, Thanks, but No Thanks.
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
I wouldn't agree with that - they are not at all typical of most of the battleground seats.
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
Hove and Brighton Pavilion have been trending away from the Conservatives for the last 30 years , Brighton Kemptown much less so because it contains a fair bit of more natural Conservative territory from Lewes DC
But hasn't Cameron's whole strategy been to 'de-toxify' ,'modernise' and 'greenify' the Conservative Party. That should be reversing the trend.
The Green/gay/Liberal response seems to be, as Sean_F said, Thanks, but No Thanks.
There were penny-packets of votes to be gained with greenery, gay rights, and overseas aid, but no more than that.
I find it quite funny that UKIP are going on about environmental damage given their other policies regarding things like fracking and anti-Green policies.
Maybe that is because they are concerned about real environmental damage rather than the myths put about by the Green lobby.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Speak for yourself. Another polling year of a supposed imminent crossover is hopefully about too pass with Labour still in the lead. I am very happy.
< they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
I wouldn't agree with that - they are not at all typical of most of the battleground seats.
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
Hove and Brighton Pavilion have been trending away from the Conservatives for the last 30 years , Brighton Kemptown much less so because it contains a fair bit of more natural Conservative territory from Lewes DC
But hasn't Cameron's whole strategy been to 'de-toxify' ,'modernise' and 'greenify' the Conservative Party. That should be reversing the trend.
The Green/gay/Liberal response seems to be, as Sean_F said, Thanks, but No Thanks.
That was one of Cameron's mistakes. Why try to appeal to the Guardianistas? They might say nice things about him occasionally but they won't ever vote for him.
Look at the range of voters and act accordingly. Nobody on the Left would ever vote for me, so as PM I'd screw them all to the wall with extra targeted taxes on muesli, sandals and hybrid cars, then go foxhunting at the weekend.
Who cares if the BBC don't like it? Privatise them. Who cares if the Guardian hate me? Take away all their public sector advertising and laugh out loud in public when they go bankrupt.
Don't waste your time on the souls of the damned. They are lost and beyond hope of redemption.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Speak for yourself. Another polling year of a supposed imminent crossover is hopefully about too pass with Labour still in the lead. I am very happy.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Speak for yourself. Another polling year of a supposed imminent crossover is hopefully about too pass with Labour still in the lead. I am very happy.
Oh, the partisan cheerleaders on here are pretending to be happy - you are the exact equivalent of Avery, but on the other side (and less well informed about economics). But out there in the real world I have friends, relatives, acquaintances of all political persuasions - and I talk politics with lots of people - and I am struck by the apathy and gloom of Labour voters, even as they look forward to victory.
They don't rate Red, they don't respect Balls, and they suspect, correctly, that Labour will enact policies almost identical to that of the Coalition, as the ideological cupboard is bare, and reality is now rightwing.
Honestly, have you ever met a *normal* person who is enthusiastic about Ed Miliband?
Exactly.
By contrast Kippers genuinely admire (some virtually adore), Nigel Farage, and they think the tides are now on their side, and they have sincere passion and conviction. They may be deluded, but that is the case. They remind me of the Nats two years ago, or - before that - Thatcherites in about 1985.
Personally abusing me will not alter the fact that I am happy about the fact Labour are in the lead. So therefor Kippers are not the only happy campers on the site.
...even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
Yes, this is something I've noticed for a while. The contrast with the years before 1997 - the palpable excitement about Blair as some striding political messiah - is stark. I suppose deep down Labour supporters aren't terribly keen on the prospect of a Miliband government and realize all too well what it will cost them.
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
I wouldn't agree with that - they are not at all typical of most of the battleground seats.
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
Hove and Brighton Pavilion have been trending away from the Conservatives for the last 30 years , Brighton Kemptown much less so because it contains a fair bit of more natural Conservative territory from Lewes DC
But hasn't Cameron's whole strategy been to 'de-toxify' ,'modernise' and 'greenify' the Conservative Party. That should be reversing the trend.
The Green/gay/Liberal response seems to be, as Sean_F said, Thanks, but No Thanks.
There were penny-packets of votes to be gained with greenery, gay rights, and overseas aid, but no more than that.
I thought SeanT was on the money when he said MPs are being warped by living in a Rich Londoner bubble.
"If you are surrounded by very rich people, significant affluence comes to seem average, a handsome income of £50k a year feels like hard-pressed “middle Britain”, and the honestly poor simply vanish from sight.
At the same time, peculiarly metropolitan obsessions take over: green taxes seem more important than tax breaks for the low paid, gay marriage or fox hunting become bizarrely totemic. Thus the nature of our politics is unwittingly changed: by the lofty milieu in which our politicians move."
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 252 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
You can have 4/6 with me that the might LDs bt Ukip vote % in 2015
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
**** Tucks into popcorn as the handbags go flying ****
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
I wouldn't agree with that - they are not at all typical of most of the battleground seats.
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
Hove and Brighton Pavilion have been trending away from the Conservatives for the last 30 years , Brighton Kemptown much less so because it contains a fair bit of more natural Conservative territory from Lewes DC
But hasn't Cameron's whole strategy been to 'de-toxify' ,'modernise' and 'greenify' the Conservative Party. That should be reversing the trend.
The Green/gay/Liberal response seems to be, as Sean_F said, Thanks, but No Thanks.
There were penny-packets of votes to be gained with greenery, gay rights, and overseas aid, but no more than that.
OK, that I can believe and can understand a politician appealing to such voters, but what about the votes that he loses by pursuing such policies? Surely it is a net increase in votes that he's after?
It appears that Clueless Dave didn't know a religious/social conservative vote existed but that a socially liberal one did and could be attracted from LD/Labour, without their responding with policies more liberal still.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
I think it's great to have a right-wing party that doesn't operate on the basis that right-wing voters have nowhere else to go.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Political activists are a strange breed and prone to huge mood swings on the flimsiest of pretexts. I remember in my political life in the 80s and 90s going from euphoria to despair on a regular basis.
Both Labour and Conservative parties exist for two reasons - one to be in power and two to keep the other lot from power. That's a tad simplistic but more than an element of truth to it. Both Labour after 1992 and the Tories after 2005 were prepared to do and say almost anything to get back into power as the consequence of a fifth and fourth defeat (respectively) were unthinkable.
It's arguably fair to say that Labour know that their room for manoeuvre post 2015 is limited but that's not the point - the point is they will have the power and the decision-making. Opposition is easy as UKIP are discovering - governing is much harder as the LDs have discovered.
UKIP will rightly be challenged and their policy platform scrutinised as the election approaches but that is a recognition that they are a serious political party representing a strand of public opinion. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the challenge and the scrutiny as that will decide if they are a serious political party.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Why don't you put your money where your mouth is? 4/6 your size
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
147 up from 9 is an impressive achievement. And UKIP hugely outpollled the Lib Dems, in terms of vote share. On top of that UKIP membership is on the point of overhauling that of the Lib Dems.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
A quotation from David Herdson's excellent piece this morning:
"Those who say seats are more important than votes are not necessarily wrong but miss the point: power is more important than either, and both seats and votes are a means to that end. UKIP, with its mid-teens vote share is currently exercising far more influence on the body politic than the Greens with their one MP."
And may I point out that the number of Liberal Democrat MPs went down in 2010 compared to 2005 and yet the LibDems found themselves in Government for the first time in donkey's years.
I have little doubt that UKIP will beat the Lib Dems, and possibly the other two parties, at the Euro elections.
But I doubt that, on current form, they are going to be anywhere near overtaking the Lib Dems into third place at a GE. The FPTP system is against them, their ground game is nowhere near as advanced as the Lib Dems, they are prone to bouts of self-immolation, and they are essentially a one-man party PR-wise.
Three of those four items are within their power to change. I doubt that they'll complete the task for the 2015 GE, but gaining one or two seats - the best I think they can currently do - would be a massive springboard for them. Just as long as their successful candidates are better than Bloom.
And you know what? I think their core message - getting out of the EU - is going to become much more of an issue, rather than reduce in importance. I know some polling shows people do not rate Europe as an issue, but the Romanian+elsewhere immigration situation is exactly the sort of thing that people do not like. Anecdotally, I have talked to three people this week who do not normally talk about politics, but unprompted, told me they were annoyed.
Large parts of the media will also want to play up the immigration fears as they make for a good story.
That's UKIP's advantage. It may not be fair; it may not be truthful; but fear is powerful.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
147 up from 9 is an impressive achievement. And UKIP hugely outpollled the Lib Dems, in terms of vote share. On top of that UKIP membership is on the point of overhauling that of the Lib Dems.
Agreed 147 up from 9 was a good performance , though 10% of them have already been lost to defections and expulsions and by election losses . I would expect UKIP membership to peak early next year as it is harder to get new recruits to renew their membership than sign up in the first place .
Why are we Labourites not eboullient like Blair's generation was? Probably because of Blair. Yes the man was a great communicator and managed to build a broad church of support. But then he revealed his true calling as the Labour representative of the elite's putch. With Thatcher, Blair and later the excretable Clegg the powers that be bought all three main parties, changing their traditional policy platforms for one more favourable to their desires.
We don't believe Ed M is of the same insurrection - indeed that he is not is what so upsets progress types. But to seek an independent political platform against this narrative is hard work, and many question if he is going too fast or not fast enough.
And besides, the global outlook is gloomy. I expect major economic problems in 2014 from what I am reading about the final denoumont in the Spanish and Greek debt crises and that's before we look at the near shooting war in the East China Sea as a proxy for the gold-backed Yuan threatening to dislodge the Dollar for purchase of oil, or the cataclysm at Fukushima.
Whatever government we get in 2015 faces a crisis not seen for a generation. Why would you be enthusiastic about that? I want a Labour government to do the basics being shunned by the Condemns (like feeding it's citizens, no more food banks or Red Cross parcels at Christmas for my fellow citizens). But it's not going to be easy. Economically we face a situation not dissimilar to 1945. A Labour party promising an Attlee style white sheet of paper approach will I believe win and win convincingly. But will Ed be bold enough?
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
147 up from 9 is an impressive achievement. And UKIP hugely outpollled the Lib Dems, in terms of vote share. On top of that UKIP membership is on the point of overhauling that of the Lib Dems.
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
That is so. But, the major parties are far weaker on the ground than they were in 1985.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
147 up from 9 is an impressive achievement. And UKIP hugely outpollled the Lib Dems, in terms of vote share. On top of that UKIP membership is on the point of overhauling that of the Lib Dems.
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
UKIP may crash and burn. The 1993-2004 period was one of endless feuds. Even after that, councillors and MEPs have flounced out.
But, I have a feeling that people are gradually realising we can hang together or hang separately.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Not disputing that. Simply pointing out that by any measure UKIP electorally have had a good year and the Lib Dems have had a frankly terrible one. I make no claims about what this means for the future, just correcting your misleading claims.
Watching Simon Reeves "Pilgrimage" on iPlayer. He claims the cathedral of Hagia Sophia took 5 years to build. One of the greatest structures on the planet, maybe the greatest architectural achievement of humanity - 5 years??!!
As a comparison, Murphys Contractors are still working on the block of 27 flats next to my house, three years after they began, and they don't expect to finish until mid 2014.
According to Wiki, the main structure took 5 yrs, 10 months, so that sounds about right. Completion of the interior took much longer. It is massively impressive, although I wonder how much of the second church was reused. I also didn't know that the dome is not the original one - that only lasted 20 years before it fell down. There have also been several other half collapses. But it is in an earthquake zone, so much can be forgiven.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
UKIP are in sight of victory in the Euro elections, the second most important elections in the UK.
That is debatable, the Scottish elections have more impact. Potentially breaking up the UK this year.
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
I would make two points - first, the Lib Dems (and previous incarnations) have been around a lot longer than UKIP and have been far closer to extinction than now - in the 1950s, the party was on the cusp of collapse and was rescued (and here's irony for you) by none other than WSC.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
I would make two points - first, the Lib Dems (and previous incarnations) have been around a lot longer than UKIP and have been far closer to extinction than now - in the 1950s, the party was on the cusp of collapse and was rescued (and here's irony for you) by none other than WSC.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
The Tories are potentially in a very weak, possibly terminal position if they lose in 2015.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Not disputing that. Simply pointing out that by any measure UKIP electorally have had a good year and the Lib Dems have had a frankly terrible one. I make no claims about what this means for the future, just correcting your misleading claims.
The Lib Dems have retained a seat in a Westminster by-election - something that the other two main parties have been unable to do in this parliament.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
It's noticeable that the kippers seem to be the only energised, punchy, truly optimistic political force in the country - they have the ebullience and mojo that the Scot Nats had until about six months ago, when they started to realise their precious referendum was probably lost.
By contrast, the Tories are disheartened by the expectation of defeat, the Greens are apparently in terminal decline, the Lib Dems are doomily staring at annihilation, the BNP have disappeared, and even Labour - probable victors in 2015 - seem oddly listless, and enervated, with their dislikeable leader, their ludicrous "chancellor", and a stark and total lack of forceful new ideas.
The kippers are the only happy campers on the site.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Not disputing that. Simply pointing out that by any measure UKIP electorally have had a good year and the Lib Dems have had a frankly terrible one. I make no claims about what this means for the future, just correcting your misleading claims.
The Lib Dems have retained a seat in a Westminster by-election - something that the other two main parties have been unable to do in this parliament.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
I would make two points - first, the Lib Dems (and previous incarnations) have been around a lot longer than UKIP and have been far closer to extinction than now - in the 1950s, the party was on the cusp of collapse and was rescued (and here's irony for you) by none other than WSC.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
The Tories are potentially in a very weak, possibly terminal position if they lose in 2015.
IF the Conservatives lose badly in 2015, then obviously Cameron is history but his successor will attempt to "love bomb" UKIP much as Cameron himself did to the LDs in 2005.
UKIP can attack Cameron on several fronts but if the Conservatives in Opposition choose a much more socially conservative leader and effectively move to a BOO position as formal Party policy, that will leave UKIP looking exposed.
The Conservative Party has an incredible instinct for self-preservation honed in its various schisms in the 19th Century. It will be around long after 2015 whatever happens but what it will look like come 2020 or 2030 is impossible to predict.
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
I would make two points - first, the Lib Dems (and previous incarnations) have been around a lot longer than UKIP and have been far closer to extinction than now - in the 1950s, the party was on the cusp of collapse and was rescued (and here's irony for you) by none other than WSC.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
The Tories are potentially in a very weak, possibly terminal position if they lose in 2015.
IF the Conservatives lose badly in 2015, then obviously Cameron is history but his successor will attempt to "love bomb" UKIP much as Cameron himself did to the LDs in 2005.
UKIP can attack Cameron on several fronts but if the Conservatives in Opposition choose a much more socially conservative leader and effectively move to a BOO position as formal Party policy, that will leave UKIP looking exposed.
The Conservative Party has an incredible instinct for self-preservation honed in its various schisms in the 19th Century. It will be around long after 2015 whatever happens but what it will look like come 2020 or 2030 is impossible to predict.
The Tory party is not what it was (no party is).
The pendulum swung in the Tories favour 1995-2011. After 16 years it has stopped and maybe started swinging the other way.
The Lib Dems have retained a seat in a Westminster by-election - something that the other two main parties have been unable to do in this parliament.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
Again you are moving the goalposts. As my posts made crystal clear I was specifically referring to Mark Senior's false comparison between Lib Dem and UKIP performance in council elections. An issue he raised not me. On that basis UKIP have clearly had a far better year than the Lib Dems.
Since I am not one of those who makes any wild claims about potential UKIP breakthroughs at Westminster and have always aid I think it highly unlikely they will get more than a handful of seats (if that), you would be better referring points about comparative Westminster performances towards those who seem to believe UKIP will be taking dozens of seats.
I do think the Lib Dems will suffer badly at GE time and would not be surprised to see them poll lower than UKIP but also would expect them to retain many of the seats they already hold.
The U.K. kept its top credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, which said the country’s debt will peak sooner and lower than it had forecast because of a strengthening economy.
Britain remains at AAA with a negative outlook, S&P said today in a statement released in London. Net general government debt will reach its highest point at 89 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, one year earlier than previously predicted, the ratings company said.
“Relative to peers, we consider the U.K. to benefit from higher-than-average fiscal flexibility, meaning that under pressure the government would be willing and able to increase tax pressure and/or cut public spending by at least 3 percent of GDP in the short term,” S&P said.
The decision is a political boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who upgraded Britain’s growth and fiscal forecasts this month. It came as S&P stripped the European Union of its top rating, saying the bloc’s cohesion has weakened and its financial profile deteriorated.
And now what shares did UKIP and the Lib Dems have in the last Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election?
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
I would make two points - first, the Lib Dems (and previous incarnations) have been around a lot longer than UKIP and have been far closer to extinction than now - in the 1950s, the party was on the cusp of collapse and was rescued (and here's irony for you) by none other than WSC.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
The Tories are potentially in a very weak, possibly terminal position if they lose in 2015.
IF the Conservatives lose badly in 2015, then obviously Cameron is history but his successor will attempt to "love bomb" UKIP much as Cameron himself did to the LDs in 2005.
UKIP can attack Cameron on several fronts but if the Conservatives in Opposition choose a much more socially conservative leader and effectively move to a BOO position as formal Party policy, that will leave UKIP looking exposed.
The Conservative Party has an incredible instinct for self-preservation honed in its various schisms in the 19th Century. It will be around long after 2015 whatever happens but what it will look like come 2020 or 2030 is impossible to predict.
The Tory party is not what it was (no party is).
The pendulum swung in the Tories favour 1995-2011. After 16 years it has stopped and maybe started swinging the other way.
Food for thought.
The pendulum swung so much to the Tories` favour in 1995 that they lost in a landslide to Labour in 1997-What are you on tonight?
The Tories will probably lose in 2015.How long they stay away from power depends on what Ed Miliband does with media laws and voting systems?
The U.K. kept its top credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, which said the country’s debt will peak sooner and lower than it had forecast because of a strengthening economy.
Britain remains at AAA with a negative outlook, S&P said today in a statement released in London. Net general government debt will reach its highest point at 89 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, one year earlier than previously predicted, the ratings company said.
“Relative to peers, we consider the U.K. to benefit from higher-than-average fiscal flexibility, meaning that under pressure the government would be willing and able to increase tax pressure and/or cut public spending by at least 3 percent of GDP in the short term,” S&P said.
The decision is a political boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who upgraded Britain’s growth and fiscal forecasts this month. It came as S&P stripped the European Union of its top rating, saying the bloc’s cohesion has weakened and its financial profile deteriorated.
And now what shares did UKIP and the Lib Dems have in the last Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election?
Speaking of festive cheer. Which post of the polling crossover goalposts do you want to hold if the last poll shows a Labour lead. You name the date and I will help you carry them.
The Lib Dems have retained a seat in a Westminster by-election - something that the other two main parties have been unable to do in this parliament.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
Again you are moving the goalposts. As my posts made crystal clear I was specifically referring to Mark Senior's false comparison between Lib Dem and UKIP performance in council elections. An issue he raised not me. On that basis UKIP have clearly had a far better year than the Lib Dems.
Since I am not one of those who makes any wild claims about potential UKIP breakthroughs at Westminster and have always aid I think it highly unlikely they will get more than a handful of seats (if that), you would be better referring points about comparative Westminster performances towards those who seem to believe UKIP will be taking dozens of seats.
I do think the Lib Dems will suffer badly at GE time and would not be surprised to see them poll lower than UKIP but also would expect them to retain many of the seats they already hold.
Under FPTP it is seats that matter not aggregate vote totals as veterans of the SDP from the mis-80s will tell you.
I do think that there's a realistic chance that UKIP will come third in terms of votes at GE2015 and I also think they could get some MPs. That's where my money has been since last May. But they will be nowhere near the LDs in terms of MPs.
The pendulum swung in the Tories favour 1995-2011. After 16 years it has stopped and maybe started swinging the other way.
Food for thought.
1995 was a remarkable year - the Conservatives lost 2,000 council seats in a single night. I was working for the LDs in Cornwall and we trounced the sitting Tory in a Council seat and the poor ex-Councillor looked completely stunned. The seat reverted back in 1999 of course.
The Party polled 25% in that round of local elections and the post-poll predictions showed Labour winning by 160+ which turned out to be pretty close to the 1997 truth.
The truth though is that the Conservative party began its recovery on that 1997 election night and year after year it rebuilt its local base through the Labour years. IF Labour returns to power in 2015, the Conservatives will again sweep the local elections.
Before I call it a night I must say this: MarkSenior is right to remind everyone that power is all and that UKIP hasn't tasted anything like that except to be represented in Brussels, or wherever they meet.
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
I would make two points - first, the Lib Dems (and previous incarnations) have been around a lot longer than UKIP and have been far closer to extinction than now - in the 1950s, the party was on the cusp of collapse and was rescued (and here's irony for you) by none other than WSC.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
The Tories are potentially in a very weak, possibly terminal position if they lose in 2015.
IF the Conservatives lose badly in 2015, then obviously Cameron is history but his successor will attempt to "love bomb" UKIP much as Cameron himself did to the LDs in 2005.
UKIP can attack Cameron on several fronts but if the Conservatives in Opposition choose a much more socially conservative leader and effectively move to a BOO position as formal Party policy, that will leave UKIP looking exposed.
The Conservative Party has an incredible instinct for self-preservation honed in its various schisms in the 19th Century. It will be around long after 2015 whatever happens but what it will look like come 2020 or 2030 is impossible to predict.
The Tory party is not what it was (no party is).
The pendulum swung in the Tories favour 1995-2011. After 16 years it has stopped and maybe started swinging the other way.
Food for thought.
The pendulum swung so much to the Tories` favour in 1995 that they lost in a landslide to Labour in 1997-What are you on tonight?
The Tories will probably lose in 2015.How long they stay away from power depends on what Ed Miliband does with media laws and voting systems?
Labour peaked around 1995 with a record 48% in the local elections. It was downhill from there to 2011.
The U.K. kept its top credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, which said the country’s debt will peak sooner and lower than it had forecast because of a strengthening economy.
Britain remains at AAA with a negative outlook, S&P said today in a statement released in London. Net general government debt will reach its highest point at 89 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, one year earlier than previously predicted, the ratings company said.
“Relative to peers, we consider the U.K. to benefit from higher-than-average fiscal flexibility, meaning that under pressure the government would be willing and able to increase tax pressure and/or cut public spending by at least 3 percent of GDP in the short term,” S&P said.
The decision is a political boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who upgraded Britain’s growth and fiscal forecasts this month. It came as S&P stripped the European Union of its top rating, saying the bloc’s cohesion has weakened and its financial profile deteriorated.
And now what shares did UKIP and the Lib Dems have in the last Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election?
Speaking of festive cheer. Which post of the polling crossover goalposts do you want to hold if the last poll shows a Labour lead. You name the date and I will help you carry them.
If it remains a Labour lead then I suggest it is the last post, compouter.
The U.K. kept its top credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, which said the country’s debt will peak sooner and lower than it had forecast because of a strengthening economy.
Britain remains at AAA with a negative outlook, S&P said today in a statement released in London. Net general government debt will reach its highest point at 89 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, one year earlier than previously predicted, the ratings company said.
“Relative to peers, we consider the U.K. to benefit from higher-than-average fiscal flexibility, meaning that under pressure the government would be willing and able to increase tax pressure and/or cut public spending by at least 3 percent of GDP in the short term,” S&P said.
The decision is a political boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who upgraded Britain’s growth and fiscal forecasts this month. It came as S&P stripped the European Union of its top rating, saying the bloc’s cohesion has weakened and its financial profile deteriorated.
And now what shares did UKIP and the Lib Dems have in the last Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election?
Speaking of festive cheer. Which post of the polling crossover goalposts do you want to hold if the last poll shows a Labour lead. You name the date and I will help you carry them.
If it remains a Labour lead then I suggest it is the last post, compouter.
Now come on Avery, in the spirit of Xmas I was thinking of giving you a hand so you can move the goalposts again to sometime next year. First it was imminent, then it was Xmas, the Avery LP polling crossover soap opera has more legs than a centipede conga.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Not disputing that. Simply pointing out that by any measure UKIP electorally have had a good year and the Lib Dems have had a frankly terrible one. I make no claims about what this means for the future, just correcting your misleading claims.
The Lib Dems have retained a seat in a Westminster by-election - something that the other two main parties have been unable to do in this parliament.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
What about:
SOUTH SHIELDS BY ELECTION 02/05/2013 (Labour Hold) ROTHERHAM BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) MIDDLESBROUGH BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) CROYDON NORTH BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) CARDIFF SOUTH AND PENARTH BY ELECTION 22ND NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) MANCHESTER CENTRAL BY ELECTION 15/11/12 (Labour Hold) BARNSLEY CENTRAL BY ELECTION RESULT 3RD MARCH 2011 (Labour Hold)
Now, obviously I've looked these up, but even I remembered David Milliband's resignation and Denis MacShane's conviction.
FPT, many thanks to the Twisted Fire Stopper for his kind words.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
Never has there been a year in which so much drivel and hype has been spouted about a political party which has won so little . Even in 2013 which has not been the best ever for the Lib Dems , they won 352 CC seats compared to UKIP's 147 and in all council by elections in 2013 Lib Dems won 38 and UKIP just 15 .
Fantastic spinning from the 'only we can win here' party.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
As the Liberals and SDP found in 1985 when they gained over 500 seats in the CC elections and council by elections it is easy for a protest party to make gains in mid term and much harder to maintain them in the following GE .
Not disputing that. Simply pointing out that by any measure UKIP electorally have had a good year and the Lib Dems have had a frankly terrible one. I make no claims about what this means for the future, just correcting your misleading claims.
The Lib Dems have retained a seat in a Westminster by-election - something that the other two main parties have been unable to do in this parliament.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
What about:
SOUTH SHIELDS BY ELECTION 02/05/2013 (Labour Hold) ROTHERHAM BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) MIDDLESBROUGH BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) CROYDON NORTH BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) CARDIFF SOUTH AND PENARTH BY ELECTION 22ND NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold) MANCHESTER CENTRAL BY ELECTION 15/11/12 (Labour Hold) BARNSLEY CENTRAL BY ELECTION RESULT 3RD MARCH 2011 (Labour Hold)
Now, obviously I've looked these up, but even I remembered David Milliband's resignation and Denis MacShane's conviction.
They don't count because....err.......because they don't count ;-)
Shops pretty quiet today - in fact a couple of folk manning tills said it had been a quiet Christmas. I did the lot in three hours. Everyone buying on line I guess. Soon there will be no need to leave the house at all. What a future. *shudder*
The shops seem quiet to me, too. Yet I have never seen the centre of London so rammed, with revellers, as it was on Thursday night - and my impression is backed up by the facts.
"According to the study, Thursday 19th December, will be a record-breaking night for Christmas parties across the Capital."
People ARE spending (certainly in the capital), but they are spending it on food and wine, and beer, and vodkatinis, and hookers, and houses. Not on presents.
I think London's out there on its own in many ways. We get plenty of weekender revellers in Brighton centre/ish - but it's not that busy in the week, even in summer. And out of town it never seems busy. A change in student habits/demographic has hit the centre hardest re nightlife, according to a friend in the pub/club game.
'In 1999 I was elected to the Scottish Parliament as a Conservative MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife. In my first speech in the chamber as a callow, inexperienced politician, I levelled the charge at the late Donald Dewar that he lacked ambition for Scotland. My words then were: “If you never raise your eyes above the horizon you will never see the stars.” Today, nearly 15 years later, the more successful Scotland I believe most of us want is not only firmly in focus – it is within our reach. More recently, I have become convinced that a Yes vote on 18 September next year is the way to achieve that better Scotland.'
Indeed, the future will be even more right wing than the present - e.g. environmental laws will be abandoned as shale-gas-rich America devours our chemical industry.
For British rightwingers, the solace in our likely defeat in 2015 will be our delight in witnessing lefties, like you, confronted with these truths, and your consequent lamentations, as everything you hold dear is crushed, utterly.
I would agree there has been a swing to the right culturally. Last Saturday, both UKIP and ex BNP offshoot Britain First were campaigning on my local high st in December. Unheard of 5 years ago.
There are many right wing forces within the UK and without. If Labour win in 2015 they will have to box carefully. Interesting times. But power brings opportunities.
Comments
Oh Mr Pole I do like a bit of festive comedy like anyone else. but that's a cracker !
HMG have done bugger all in this Parlt to address the rebalancing of the economy. This was evident from about 2011 when Chicken George got his knickers in a twist and couldn't figure out what to do next. 5 wasted years Poley old chap with the only redeeming feature being it was nowhere near as dire as Brown. Even today Osborne hasn't got a clue what he should do next.
Tex Avery king of comedy.
HS2 debate ft Farage (not the UKIP leader in 2010 btw)
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/nigel-farage-wins-the-spectators-hs2-debate-but-will-the-green-belt-be-destroyed/
So, you're saying David 'I support gay marriage' Cameron is not going to win any of the Brighton seats, including the two he holds already?
LOL.
ISTR the M40 alternative was looked into early on, and was rejected. But he makes some good points.
(FX: goes through documents) Ah yes, looking at the document below, it is surprising that the expert says that the M40 option has not been looked into, as it is shown in the PDF as route 2. Page 24 and on give the reasons why it was rejected. For instance, it passes close to far more population centres, would be slower and longer.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-hs2-london-to-west-midlands-route-selection-and-speed
I've spent a rather large amount of time looking into this and drawing up my own potential routes (I'm also doing the same for a possible Cambridge to Bedford line). It isn't as simple or as easy as people think, even after I've made some vast simplifications.
What matters are the starting criteria, and that is where the anti-HS2 people could be concentrating their fire. Why engineer it to such a high speed? Why Old Oak Common? What about Heathrow?
There are good answers to these, but early decisions such as these made the route chosen virtually inevitable.
Just as well as manufacturing production is actually still 10% below pre-cris levels and of course even more than that when measured against the peak reached back in 2000.
In fact the October 2013 manufacturing output was less than that in October 2010 - so much for 'March of the Makers'.
As to the wider industrial production ouput that is now lower than what this government inherited in 2010.
But both results are very possible, Hove and Kemptown should be good indicators on the night of the national battle.
*) It has been extensively built over in Leicester and Nottingham;
*) It was not a high-speed alignment.
*) the southern section is still open and in heavy use.
*) It does not go to Birmingham
*) Where would you put the London terminus?
I'd love to see the GC reopened to south of Leicester, and it may well be worthwhile to do so, But it won't be an HS2 alternative.
(On another point, am I the only one getting **** annoying auto-run video ads on PB pages? Worse, they cover the 'pause' button up with a Google+ 'Like' button)
In particular, I wouldn't be surprised the Tories underperform in Hove compared with other seats along that coastal belt.
EU army is a great idea! I am just awaiting the day that German soldiers in tanks, roll into Athens, Warsaw or Paris to quell civil riots!!!
The fact that industrial production is below 2010 makes it difficult for the firm of Avery, Nabavi & co. to blame Labour and everyone else other than the Tories. But they will still harp on.
There has been plenty of rebalancing going on in the economy.
Employment
Total market sector employment is forecast to rise by 3.1 million between the start of 2011, the beginning of the period covered by the Government’s 2010 Spending Review, and the start of 2019. This more than offsets a 1.1 million fall in general government employment
GDP Composition
With regards to the composition of nominal GDP:
• in income terms: labour income is forecast to grow more slowly than GDP in the near term, despite the strength of employment, as productivity and earnings growth remain subdued. But it picks up from 2015 as productivity growth recovers. Corporate profits have grown faster than GDP this year and are forecast to continue to do so; and
• in expenditure terms: private consumption is forecast to grow slightly faster than household income, with the saving ratio falling marginally. Private investment is forecast to recover towards its pre-crisis share of GDP, implying strong growth in business and residential investment for a sustained period. By contrast, the Government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation implies large and sustained falls in government consumption of goods and services as a share of GDP, which is projected to reach its lowest level on record in data back to 1948.
Mr. Brooke, you must have Southam Observer visiting you. The dense clouds of Habana's finest cigars are obscuring your vision.
Osborne is an excellent Chancellor, but he's not a magician.
Personally think if you're baiting someone using their personal info, and they know your persona, you're playing with fire
Now he is apparently allowed back but is preferring martyrdom... although I suspect... oh don't go there!!
As has been pointed out you haven't rebalanced a thing bar some non-jobs in the public sector. In the productive economy manufacturing is still below peak, our balance of payments is getting uncomfortably in the red, private consumption is being fed from spending savings and if you understood the corporate sector any commitment to additional capital expenditure in 2014 won't have an effect until 2016 or 2017. If it wasn't for the fact Osborne keeps putting back my pension I'd have retired by the time the current crop of blues figure out what's going on.
To much time in the South East Pole Minor, trying getting out more. C-
thanks v much and wow sounds convoluted. It's an interesting one re. online forums as there is a funny, wholly illogical code of conduct which people fall into.
Which thread was it on or has it all been expunged?
If SEB goes out first it is good for Susanna Reid, if Nathalie goes out next it is good for Abbey.
Just my reading of it looking at the scores and bookies' odds.
Shame he has gone really, I hope he comes back... much as I completely disagree with him on politics, a sharp opponent is good for the debate... and the Labour posters that try to imitate his style are awful.
http://youtu.be/JeLtJS-Mg9Q?t=49m53s
http://stophs2.org
The collapse of Lehmans didn't cause the recession as it occurred 6 months after the recession had started and which had already seen a fall in GDP equivalent to that of the 1990-1991 recession. Incidentally there was no shortage of other banking problems between Northern Rock and Lehmans - in March 2008 Bear Stearns had collapsed and HBOS nearly so (although it managed to stagger on until the autumn).
Now the pre-Lehmans recession might not have apparant to you and I doubt that Cameron and Osborne experienced it in their personal lives but it was felt by millions of people around the country. In particular by the provincial wwc voters who gave the Conservatives such huge victories in the local elections and Crewe byelection of May 2008.
As I say I doubt that the Cameroons were aware personally of the recession but did they not wonder what had caused such a sudden and strong swing to the Conservatives among wwc voters ? Did they not think that there might be an economic influence behind it ? Perhaps if there had been some sort of high profile event which suggested all was not well with the fundamentals of the British economy ?
FOR EXAMPLE A HIGH STREET BANK CRASHING IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR
After Northern Rock all it needed was an open mind, a bit of common sense and a few hours looking at the economic stats to see what a parlous state the British economy was actually in.
Now let us remember Osborne's speech of July 2008 in which he babbles about numerous things but rarely mentions matters economic.
Do you see the problem here ?
Let me explain:
OSBORNE WAS THE SHADOW CHANCELLOR - IT WAS HIS JOB TO DEMOLISH LABOUR'S ECONOMIC RECORD. YET HE SEEMED UNAWARE FIRSTLY OF HOW WEAK THE BRITISH ECONOMY FUNDAMENTALLY WAS AND SECONDLY THAT IT WAS IN A STATE OF DISINTEGRATION
And then what did Osborne do ?
Went yachting with a Russian oligarch, Mandelson and a Rothschild.
What a great visual image for a country in recession.
The district's residents were found to be the healthiest and live the longest in the UK, while employment was well above the national average.
Uttlesford in Essex was in second place followed by South Northamptonshire which jumped 27 places to third.
The annual Halifax quality of life survey looked at factors including life expectancy, crime rates and weather."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25474188
Must be a bit annoying having a birthday so close to xmas. And for people who celebrate their name day instead, that appears to be the 30th November which isn't much help either! Hope your parents celebrated your six months anti-phase birthday instead. (My old physics teacher used to do that with his daughter...)
Very sad.
As MBE says, it can't be easy having a birthday this time of year. I have three friends with birthdays on Christmas Day itself. One of them is just about to turn 50 and will have her "official" party in the summer so that it stands out.
UKIP's organisation and self-discipline is light-years' better than five years ago, but still a very long way from where it needs to be.
The emergence of UKIP as a serious political force is one of the most encouraging political changes of my lifetime.
http://youtu.be/K27fm4lyWm0
Particularly funny is his claim that the rest of the world are catching up with us because we had high-speed rail in the 1970s. I'm not quite sure where to start with that one, and it is hard to take someone who says it seriously ...
I find it quite funny that UKIP are going on about environmental damage given their other policies regarding things like fracking and anti-Green policies.
The Green/gay/Liberal response seems to be, as Sean_F said, Thanks, but No Thanks.
Increase in manufacturing output at this stage (4 years and 1 quarter) after recessions:
1980-1981 +11%
1990-1991 +10%
2008-2009 +5%
The things a few minutes perusal of the ONS discovers.
I wonder if George Osborne has ever spent his time likewise ?
Look at the range of voters and act accordingly. Nobody on the Left would ever vote for me, so as PM I'd screw them all to the wall with extra targeted taxes on muesli, sandals and hybrid cars, then go foxhunting at the weekend.
Who cares if the BBC don't like it? Privatise them. Who cares if the Guardian hate me? Take away all their public sector advertising and laugh out loud in public when they go bankrupt.
Don't waste your time on the souls of the damned. They are lost and beyond hope of redemption.
IT'S CHRRRRRIIIISSSSTTTTMMMAAAASSSSSSS!
(Bounces around study)
Oh, and Happy Birthday to AndyJS.
"If you are surrounded by very rich people, significant affluence comes to seem average, a handsome income of £50k a year feels like hard-pressed “middle Britain”, and the honestly poor simply vanish from sight.
At the same time, peculiarly metropolitan obsessions take over: green taxes seem more important than tax breaks for the low paid, gay marriage or fox hunting become bizarrely totemic. Thus the nature of our politics is unwittingly changed: by the lofty milieu in which our politicians move."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100249146/the-tragedy-of-london-a-world-class-city-with-world-class-ignorance-of-real-life/
Yes I am aware of the irony of writing this on a Saturday night.
A more accurate way to look at the results would be to say that UKIP made a net gain of seats of 139 whilst the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124.
It appears that Clueless Dave didn't know a religious/social conservative vote existed but that a socially liberal one did and could be attracted from LD/Labour, without their responding with policies more liberal still.
Political activists are a strange breed and prone to huge mood swings on the flimsiest of pretexts. I remember in my political life in the 80s and 90s going from euphoria to despair on a regular basis.
Both Labour and Conservative parties exist for two reasons - one to be in power and two to keep the other lot from power. That's a tad simplistic but more than an element of truth to it. Both Labour after 1992 and the Tories after 2005 were prepared to do and say almost anything to get back into power as the consequence of a fifth and fourth defeat (respectively) were unthinkable.
It's arguably fair to say that Labour know that their room for manoeuvre post 2015 is limited but that's not the point - the point is they will have the power and the decision-making. Opposition is easy as UKIP are discovering - governing is much harder as the LDs have discovered.
UKIP will rightly be challenged and their policy platform scrutinised as the election approaches but that is a recognition that they are a serious political party representing a strand of public opinion. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the challenge and the scrutiny as that will decide if they are a serious political party.
"Those who say seats are more important than votes are not necessarily wrong but miss the point: power is more important than either, and both seats and votes are a means to that end. UKIP, with its mid-teens vote share is currently exercising far more influence on the body politic than the Greens with their one MP."
And may I point out that the number of Liberal Democrat MPs went down in 2010 compared to 2005 and yet the LibDems found themselves in Government for the first time in donkey's years.
Do pay attention at the back.
Must be a missing vowel, unless they intend to stitch him up as well.
But I doubt that, on current form, they are going to be anywhere near overtaking the Lib Dems into third place at a GE. The FPTP system is against them, their ground game is nowhere near as advanced as the Lib Dems, they are prone to bouts of self-immolation, and they are essentially a one-man party PR-wise.
Three of those four items are within their power to change. I doubt that they'll complete the task for the 2015 GE, but gaining one or two seats - the best I think they can currently do - would be a massive springboard for them. Just as long as their successful candidates are better than Bloom.
And you know what? I think their core message - getting out of the EU - is going to become much more of an issue, rather than reduce in importance. I know some polling shows people do not rate Europe as an issue, but the Romanian+elsewhere immigration situation is exactly the sort of thing that people do not like. Anecdotally, I have talked to three people this week who do not normally talk about politics, but unprompted, told me they were annoyed.
Large parts of the media will also want to play up the immigration fears as they make for a good story.
That's UKIP's advantage. It may not be fair; it may not be truthful; but fear is powerful.
We don't believe Ed M is of the same insurrection - indeed that he is not is what so upsets progress types. But to seek an independent political platform against this narrative is hard work, and many question if he is going too fast or not fast enough.
And besides, the global outlook is gloomy. I expect major economic problems in 2014 from what I am reading about the final denoumont in the Spanish and Greek debt crises and that's before we look at the near shooting war in the East China Sea as a proxy for the gold-backed Yuan threatening to dislodge the Dollar for purchase of oil, or the cataclysm at Fukushima.
Whatever government we get in 2015 faces a crisis not seen for a generation. Why would you be enthusiastic about that? I want a Labour government to do the basics being shunned by the Condemns (like feeding it's citizens, no more food banks or Red Cross parcels at Christmas for my fellow citizens). But it's not going to be easy. Economically we face a situation not dissimilar to 1945. A Labour party promising an Attlee style white sheet of paper approach will I believe win and win convincingly. But will Ed be bold enough?
It is equally true that MarkSenior is a frightened man for he know's that UKIP is the future and the pathetic party he supports, representing conservatism - whatever that may be - is the past.
http://www.mfs-theothernews.com/2013/12/german-scientists-predict-century-of.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
But, I have a feeling that people are gradually realising we can hang together or hang separately.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagia_Sophia#Third_church_.28current_structure.29
In comparison, the current St Pauls took 33 years for the main construction top be complete. That was a millennium after the Hagia Sophia.
It is an amazing building. Annoyingly, I've never been there, but it's on my must-visit list.
Second, a lot of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 thought they were the future and that they would smash the duopoly but they failed and the fact remains that while in terms of votes, the Conservative and Labour parties got barely two-thirds of the vote in 2010 they still won over 550 out of the 650 available seats.
Opportunities to break that duopoly are rare and it is possible an EU Referendum in 2017 will have the same effect on the Tories as the 1975 Referendum had on Labour. It remains to be seen whether UKIP (or anyone) will be able to capitalise.
The biggest vote share that UKIP has ever achieved in a Westminster seat has been 28%
UKIP can attack Cameron on several fronts but if the Conservatives in Opposition choose a much more socially conservative leader and effectively move to a BOO position as formal Party policy, that will leave UKIP looking exposed.
The Conservative Party has an incredible instinct for self-preservation honed in its various schisms in the 19th Century. It will be around long after 2015 whatever happens but what it will look like come 2020 or 2030 is impossible to predict.
The pendulum swung in the Tories favour 1995-2011. After 16 years it has stopped and maybe started swinging the other way.
Food for thought.
Since I am not one of those who makes any wild claims about potential UKIP breakthroughs at Westminster and have always aid I think it highly unlikely they will get more than a handful of seats (if that), you would be better referring points about comparative Westminster performances towards those who seem to believe UKIP will be taking dozens of seats.
I do think the Lib Dems will suffer badly at GE time and would not be surprised to see them poll lower than UKIP but also would expect them to retain many of the seats they already hold.
Bloomberg reports:
The U.K. kept its top credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, which said the country’s debt will peak sooner and lower than it had forecast because of a strengthening economy.
Britain remains at AAA with a negative outlook, S&P said today in a statement released in London. Net general government debt will reach its highest point at 89 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, one year earlier than previously predicted, the ratings company said.
“Relative to peers, we consider the U.K. to benefit from higher-than-average fiscal flexibility, meaning that under pressure the government would be willing and able to increase tax pressure and/or cut public spending by at least 3 percent of GDP in the short term,” S&P said.
The decision is a political boost for Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who upgraded Britain’s growth and fiscal forecasts this month. It came as S&P stripped the European Union of its top rating, saying the bloc’s cohesion has weakened and its financial profile deteriorated.
And now what shares did UKIP and the Lib Dems have in the last Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election?
The Tories will probably lose in 2015.How long they stay away from power depends on what Ed Miliband does with media laws and voting systems?
I do think that there's a realistic chance that UKIP will come third in terms of votes at GE2015 and I also think they could get some MPs. That's where my money has been since last May. But they will be nowhere near the LDs in terms of MPs.
The Party polled 25% in that round of local elections and the post-poll predictions showed Labour winning by 160+ which turned out to be pretty close to the 1997 truth.
The truth though is that the Conservative party began its recovery on that 1997 election night and year after year it rebuilt its local base through the Labour years. IF Labour returns to power in 2015, the Conservatives will again sweep the local elections.
SOUTH SHIELDS BY ELECTION 02/05/2013 (Labour Hold)
ROTHERHAM BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold)
MIDDLESBROUGH BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold)
CROYDON NORTH BY ELECTION 29TH NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold)
CARDIFF SOUTH AND PENARTH BY ELECTION 22ND NOVEMBER 2012 (Labour Hold)
MANCHESTER CENTRAL BY ELECTION 15/11/12 (Labour Hold)
BARNSLEY CENTRAL BY ELECTION RESULT 3RD MARCH 2011 (Labour Hold)
Now, obviously I've looked these up, but even I remembered David Milliband's resignation and Denis MacShane's conviction.
'In 1999 I was elected to the Scottish Parliament as a Conservative MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife.
In my first speech in the chamber as a callow, inexperienced politician, I levelled the charge at the late Donald Dewar that he lacked ambition for Scotland. My words then were: “If you never raise your eyes above the horizon you will never see the stars.” Today, nearly 15 years later, the more successful Scotland I believe most of us want is not only firmly in focus – it is within our reach.
More recently, I have become convinced that a Yes vote on 18 September next year is the way to achieve that better Scotland.'
http://tinyurl.com/pc9m3wd
There are many right wing forces within the UK and without. If Labour win in 2015 they will have to box carefully. Interesting times. But power brings opportunities.
DAVID Cameron has threatened to BLOCK further enlargement of the EU unless tough new immigration curbs are introduced.
The move is a major victory for The Sun’s call for the PM to make migration a red line issue in talks with Brussels.
http://t.co/fHdSG4Drbz
Nige calls the President of the EU a "damp rag".
Dave deploys a veto.
The difference between UKIP and the Conservatives.