Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion
Over the holiday period I’m planning to look at some of the constituency betting markets that we have up. There are now quite a few of them with Ladbrokes PaddyPower leading the way.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_Party#2013:_Bradford_councillors_resign
I don't think I'm qualified to try to call the Bradford race as I didn't believe Mike when he tipped Galloway at some crazy odds, but I do think high-profile MPs from small parties will have strong incumbency. I reckon the voters will look after them like rare birds to protect the species, even if they're in two minds about whether they like them or not.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25476438
I think Caroline Lucas has a good chance of holding on. Firstly, she's managed to distance herself a bit from the Green council by criticising some of their decisions. Secondly, she'll pull in quite a lot of people who don't particularly care about Green policies or even necessarily agree with them, simply because people like having MPs who aren't from the same old tired party establishment, especially in a seat like that.
I agree Labour will probably take back Bradford though.
As a UKIPper, you seem to be against HS2? How do you square this with your 2010 prospectus, which seemed to include proposals for *three* high speed lines?
Seats which will go red down South are Brighton Kemptown,Hove,Hastings,one of the Medway seats and probably Reading West.
Ref you comment "2020 could, therefore, be an even better opportunity for a battle-hardened political party of the populist right [if Labour win the next election], ... [as UKIP] will have had another half a decade to grow its membership and refine its policies."
That's true, and indeed, I mentioned that deliberately targeting the Conservatives was a policy logically consistent with a medium-term game aimed at increasing opposition to the EU. However, it also relies on the Conservatives not stealing UKIP's thunder, either on the Europe question (which as Mike points out from time to time, is not of itself of great salience, though associated issues may be), or as a general opposition to the government.
One reason that UKIP is doing so well is that Miliband is doing so badly. When Blair was riding high in the mid-90s, Others and the Lib Dems were not; his Labour Party simply swept up all the floating opposition votes. A Conservative Party in opposition under Boris, for example, may do something similar, even though Boris is instinctively pro-membership. It all really depends on how big an issue the EU is.
However, at the moment, UKIP benefits from:
- the government having to deal with the legacy of the worst recession in decades
- a naturally centrist Tory leader
- an uninspiring leader of the opposition
- no third party opposition
- an expansion of immigration from EU countries about to take place
- the apparent failure of the biggest and most ambitious EU policy.
Single issues may move more in UKIP's direction in the future but I'd be surprised if so many are so favourable again.
There are others I might dabble on depending on how things go next year.
How's Galloway doing up there in Bradford? Is 4.00 for him not any good?
This is going to cause you problems Mike. It looks as though UKIP is oppotunistically grasping at an issue.
And whatever happened to UKIP's flat-tax of 2010 and the fusing of national insurance and income tax which would have added a massive extra tax burden on pensioners?
Farage knows perfectly well he isn't going to storm the commons with hundreds of MPs but if he keeps the pressure on then he not only continues to push fearful tory backbenchers towards OUT but the tory leadership as well. If not all the way under Cammie then then next leader will likely prove even more amenable. The more votes and sympathy the kippers garner from tory activists and the tory base the more certain they are of shaping tory policy. Farage also knows that if the tory party go to war over the EU again, and it starts to split and fracture over Europe, he's going to be there to pick up the pieces. The fact that Cameron is a second rate Blair impersonator has made certain that unhappy tory activists (swivel-eyed loons as the chumocracy would name them) are finding ever more policy positions where they agree with Farage and the kippers over Cameron's leadership. It used to be just about the EU, then EU and add immigration, then add climate change, then gay rights and so on and so on. That won't stop now. If Farage doesn't implode in a Robert Kilroy-Silk like manner then he gets to push the tory party as a whole ever further to his preferred policy positions or he just sits back and watches a tory leadership that tries to ignore them push ever more of it's own members and voters into his party which will just gain ever more traction as an alternative tory party the longer a Cameroon style leadership plays right into his hands.
You think?
LOL
Cameron's own backbenchers don't trust him over his Cast Iron pledges so it's bit much to expect kippers to be that gullible. "As it happens, I think the sceptics are wrong: the Conservative leadership realised early on after making the Lisbon pledge that there was the risk – subsequently realised – that they may come to power after the treaty was fully ratified and as such would be unable to fulfil the promise, and sought to exclude that scenario from the commitment."
There's a reason so many kippers and much of the tory base remember that differently from the official Cameroon spin of Lisbon now. The one certain way for desperate Cameroons to futher estrange tory sympathetic voters over the EU is to try and spin that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour. So expect that to be the master strategy going forward.
Seats such as Thurrock, Plymouth Sutton, Waveney and Norwich S are all more likely
I wouldn't be surprised to see my own constituency of Hornchurch and Upminster be very good for UKIP.. I would expect 2nd place, and Thurrock is more like the "Gooshays" ward of H&U, which has already gone purple
@MikeK I have to politely disagree with you about Brighton Pavillion though... UKIP aren't winning there
“Scotland have to understand the pressure they are under and relieve themselves... ”
GAVIN HASTINGS
The most famous Colemanballs of all was not by David Coleman himself but by his BBC commentary partner, Ron Pickering. It came from the 1976 Montreal Olympics and involved the great Cuban runner Juantorena:
'And there goes Juantorena down the back straight, opening his legs and showing his class'.
RON PICKERING ATTRIB.DAVID COLEMAN
A genuine Colemanballs this time. One to make your read twice:
And the line up for the final of the Women's 400 metres hurdles includes three Russians, two East Germans, a Pole, a Swede and a Frenchman.
DAVID COLEMAN
RIP David Coleman
And whatever happened to UKIP's flat-tax of 2010 and the fusing of national insurance and income tax which would have added a massive extra tax burden on pensioners?
Tuition fees?
And whatever happened to UKIP's flat-tax of 2010 and the fusing of national insurance and income tax which would have added a massive extra tax burden on pensioners?
The honest truth Mike, for what it's worth is:
1. I have never read the 2010 UKIP prospectus
2. I do know that it was ceremonially dumped as UKIP policy almost immediately after the election.
3. UKIP as a party is totally different from the one in 2010. In fact you might say it's had a major face lift.
I don't think that UKIP are "opportunistically grasping at an issue"; just that the policy has changed.
Notice to all: Please read what I actually said.
Nothing against Lucas, really (though I find her a bit of a cold fish...). But I reckon she'll find it hard to put *enough* distance between her and the council. If you want to get someone spitting fire in Brighton - even the gentle left-ish types - just mention the Greens.
Polling Specials
Will Lib Dems poll 14% or over (YouGov) by the end of 2013?
Should win me £15 - Last Yougov is out now ?
The SNP changed the axis upon which Scottish politics turns, and we managed to do that quite early in our history. By the 1970s independence was already the elephant in the room, even if we were still miles away from executive power.
Majority of the population now Agnostic/Athiest.
"This ascent of the hard rightwing parties is not a fleeting thing, it is a secular shift caused by globalisation and its discontents."
I think he's abosultely right. Nations don't how to cope with the likes of Amazon and Google, any more than UK does with Boots or Vodafone. Individuals have to react to exploitation somehow, or go under, and trade unions have, by and large, been emasculated by "free-market" ideologists in Western governments.
UKIP Brighton Pavilion? Lol.
Shadsy gets it right more often than not. Who would have thought a couple of years back that the Conservatives would be odds against in Thanet South ? Astonishing.
Edit: Just noted it is actually quite a swingy seat. Sorry I had some stereotypical South East assumptions hat on there.
I'm not sure who wins it but I think it is a coin toss of UKIP and Labour.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/dlknowles/why-yours-is-the-most-boring-generation-in-history-fm44?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=buzzfeed
Though before long the little guys will be governments.
Isn't that a description of what you take great delight in calling a u turn when done by the Tories? What's the difference?
BTW do you like felt, straw or wool?
The difference is that UKIP proposed to upgrade three existing lines, and I don't think they ever were in favour of HS2... so it wasn't a U turn
|
|
Ging
That said, Carola's right too, to some extent. However, to deal with the very big companies we'll need concerted international action, or something that the Google's and Amazon's need.
That, IMHO, is why UKIP is wrong. The multinationals will tell an "out-of-EU" Britain what to do, not the other way round. The EU, reformed, is big enough to stand up to them.
They'd have to retreat to their only other permanent pulpit - the BBC and a seat every other week on QT.
And whatever happened to UKIP's flat-tax of 2010 and the fusing of national insurance and income tax which would have added a massive extra tax burden on pensioners?
UKIP's 2010 policies are in another geological era.
UKIP is a one policy party. Keep the foreigners out !
http://www.wealthynation.org/member-profiles/
David is a very important person in my personal political thinking and development.If it wasn't for him I might not be here now. I first started reading blogs in 2004 when I was off work being treated for cancer. The only readable Scottish politics blog back then was his Freedom and Whisky:
http://freedomandwhisky.blogspot.se/
I became such a regular that eventually I started my own blog, then found PB , UKPR and many others.
The establishment and success of the many well-read Scottish politics blogs is down to David, and to a lesser extent me, and other early pioneers. I remember that every time I read Wings or Newsnet!
"Support use of electric cars, ensure "comprehensive electrification" of rail lines and introduce three high-speed lines linking London to the Midlands, northern England and Birmingham"
Which could back you up that it might be an 'upgrade' (it just says 'introduce'). But other sources (1) seem to suggest that these lines were to be three 'new' 200 MPH lines.
Even if they are not to be new, those sorts of speeds cannot be done on existing lines - for one thing curvatures will not allow it.
As for capacity, expanding (e.g. quadrupling) existing tracks will cause massive chaos as lines often pass through built-up areas. HS2 passes through large areas of countryside. Building 200 MPH lines alongside 100 MPH lines has severe problems, although they somewhat managed it on HS1 using both the motorway and rail corridors. But the WCML is not Kent.
So whilst it would depend on exact wording on the manifesto, I'm deeply sceptical. It looks like it was a U-turn of prodigious proportions by UKIP.
I found link (2) to be helpful - note some of it makes sense. But parts (circling the circle line) are stupid - the change was done for a reason.
As a matter of interest, what are their current transport policies, and how do they effect rail?
(1): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8617187.stm
(2): http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=80483
If UKIP were in favour of the London to Birmingham High Speed Rail route being created in 2010, and they are opposed to it now, then that would be a U-turn.
If they were in favour of other routes being upgraded, or even created, but are opposed to the London-Birmingham High Speed Rail route being created that is not a U-turn.
Lets say a party was in favour of upgrading Gatwick & Stansted, and creating a new airport on Boris Island, then opposed the building of a new airport in the Midlands.. would that be a U-turn?
As its Christmas, I found this for you x
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2013/04/when-ukip-called-for-three-new-high-speed-rail-lines/
I've taken Craig Keiswetter for top home scorer in Brisbane Heat v Perth Scorchers tomorrow morning but mainly as an incentive to get out of bed to watch it. Apart from that I'm light until the next Ashes match.
We tend to go through this retail panic each year, with stories of high street shops starting sales early and slashing prices in the run-up to Christmas. It is all part of a "get out and catch the bargains" message designed to sustain the Christmas rush.
All indications are that Christmas retail sales will grow steadily but not spectacularly. No record growth rates but equally no declines.
St George is not the kind of Chancellor to announce he has ended "boom and bust". He is far too realistic and modest. Abolishing bust is more than sufficient.
Florida *is* in the South. Relatively.
"Stronsay is an island surrounded by sea"
http://www.conservatives.com/Video/Webcameron.aspx?id=f17e54e7-2b0b-4cc3-9ec7-d441aa1dea4b
"There's a mistake on the scoreboard: they're only showing his Christian names, Ismail Ibrahim."
You should have seen her face when I mentioned how she voted against Catholics being able to marry the heir to the throne!
The internet details how every MP has voted, if anyone is bothered to do so. Those that are will almost certainly spread the word amongst their friends.
So much easier than getting, paying and looking up Hansard.
Who'd have thought it a year ago. How times change.
Good to see you so full of Christmas cheer this evening, I wonder if RN is after the demolition job he received last night ;-)
Speaking of which I must take issue with your comment from then:
"It is not enough for a few individuals reading ONS statistics correctly to change an electorate's view on future developments and current malaise. The prophets of doom must have an audience willing to receive their message. And this especially applies to politicians who have to sell their message in a market for votes. Being believed is far more important than being right."
People WERE willing to listen to the prophets of doom back in 2008 as the economic malaise was widely felt.
Rising unemployment and prices** and growing inequality etc etc.
In fact it was this economic malaise which was behind the huge Conservative poll leads and election victories of mid 2008.
Yet Cameron and Osborne failed to see let alone understand this. Because both the economic malaise and the Conservative advances were happening among the wwc in the midlands and North. People whom the Cameroons had no interest in and who had been ignored in favour of the 'Cameron Project' of targeting middle class leftists. And so we had the Cameroons complacently assuming that things were going their way politically and they didn't bother THINKING about what was happening. A few weeks later they were exposed as rabbits stuck in the headlights as economic reality was forced upon them.
I don't think you realise how close the Conservatives came to a genuine and permanent breakthrough in 2008, but their leadership didn't have the vision or courage to grasp it. And so the longterm gainers will be UKIP.
** which were increasing at double the rate they are now although Labour had no interest in the cost of living back then.
The latest Private Eye has some figures about 2013:
*) 6GW of generative capacity closed (9% of total)
*) Newly completed replacement capacity: less than 4GW
*) Safety margin of supply over peak: 6% and falling (20% is comfortable)
It's well worth a read.
The coalition's doing better than Labour, and Miliband's Madness is not helping, but energy is one area that the coalition's disappointed me. But I'm not sure that we'd have the same answers - I'm cautiously favourable towards some green initiatives, for instance.
But we are sailing to close to the wind.
Since I cannot find the manifesto, I cannot tell for sure. But if link (2) I gave earlier is correct, then that was indeed what they said:
"invest in 3 new 200 mph plus high-speed rail lines: London-Newcastle (with other sections e.g. Edinburgh-Glasgow, and to West Coast Main Line), London-Bristol (for Wales)- Exeter, and fast link Birmingham to Great Western Main Line. Other rail sections could become high speed in part"
London to Birmingham would be done via the new high-speed London-Bristol line. That could almost be seen as an HS2-style route, which goes via Old Oak Common ...
From your linked article:
" A spokesman says that Ukip is in favour of “high-speed rail”, just not HS2. Under its thinking, you could have new routes alongside existing ones, with much less pain for local residents."
My God. Was the spokesman that clueless? Where would the route 'alongside' be when it goes through towns such as Leamington, Warwick, Hemel and others, where houses and businesses are directly adjacent to the tracks?
Note the impossibility of running high-speed lines on Victorian track alignments - at 120 MPH the minimum track curve is (from memory) a little over 1,500 metres. At 250 MPH it is over 7,000 metres. HS2 has specified 8,000 metres (*) Look at a map of (say) the WCML and try altering the curves to the order of 5,000 metre radius and see how many towns you obliterate.
The objections to quadrupling (especially with high speed) existing lines outside of existing railway boundary footprints would be an order of magnitude over that of HS2.
(*) Hopes to God I've got that right.
Although PE is sometimes OTT it often has interesting insights - " Ed Miliband's energy price freeze policy has had the predicted effect of scaring off investors: the National Grid has announced a reduction in the amount of new grid connections being sought by would-be new power plant developers."
Maybe UKIP had a not very well thought out policy on Railway tracks in 2010 which they are no longer pursuing. Personally, I couldn't care less. I didn't vote UKIP in 2010, & am not bothered about HS2 that much either way
But I don't think they were ever in favour of HS2 as it stands, so its not a U Turn
http://www.cityam.com/article/it-crazy-high-speed-rail-will-fail-integrate-our-airports
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/9469344/HS2-route-should-be-moved-to-M40-corridor-says-high-speed-rail-expert.html
Any future ukip (or indeed any other party) will simply say that parliament is once again soverign and that the new tax law is that companies cant move profit to another country because of new regulations.
Amazon or Google or whatever will either comply fully or stop trading in the UK.
If they stop trading in the UK other companies will step up (provided the new govt hasn't outlawed the free market).
To think otherwise is simply to reject reality as if you still believe in father christmas.
To quote Stalin "How many divisions has the pope got?"
I had the 2001-05 government more in mind when making the comment you quoted on the prophets of doom, even though it still applied to some extent in 2008. Fiscal rectitude or 'living within one's means' was not an easy preach when the son of the manse was boasting he had abolished boom and bust and the voters were enjoying the false fruits of the debt-fertilised money tree.
You are right that attitudes were beginning to change in 2008 and ears were beginning to open to parties which were prepared to challenge the previous decade's mantra of borrow and bust. Still Cameron and Osborne had an election to win after their party had been comprehensively defeated in three general elections. Taking too extreme a line on the austerity needed to repair the UK economy would, at the time, have been a vote loser rather than winner.
It is better to judge Cameron and Osborne on what they have achieved so far in office. Almost all macro-economic metrics have improved since 2010 and even your favoured bug-bear, the trade deficit, has remained stable over a period when oil and gas production has been falling at a rate of 15% per year.
Inflation is currently only 0.1% above the BoE target and short to medium term inflationary pressures remain subdued.
The deficit, however it is measured, has been reduced by at least a third and real borrowing by a far more substantial percentage. If you don't believe me, just consult the key findings of the latest Public Finances Bulletin (The central government net cash requirement for the year to date 2013/14 was £41.4 billion, £25.7 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13.
The OBR has produced reasonably reliable forecasts for the cycilically adjusted current balance (the official deficit target) to be eliminated in the middle of the next parliamentary term with public sector borrowing accounts in surplus thereafter. And if all this sounds easy on paper note Chote's statement in his latest EFO:
The 11.1 per cent of GDP reduction in underlying PSNB forecast between 2009-10 and 2018-19 would represent one of the largest deficit reductions among advanced economies in the post-war period.
Current GDP growth is the highest of all G7 nations and all sectors of the economy are contributing (Services, Production, Manufacturing and Agriculture). We are now only 2% behind the pre-crisis peak in GDP and this is almost to be passed during 2014.
Employment, at over 30 million, is at its all time record and continuing to grow. Unemployment has fallen by over 0.5% this year alone.
The banks have been stabilised, with healthier balance sheets than their European counterparts and sales of their shares back to the private sector have begun in earnest.
[to be continued ...]
[...continued]
Borrowing costs remain low for UK gilts and in the internal economy and the BoE has not had to expand QE for over a year. Sterling has risen against almost all the currencies of its trading partners.
This surely is a list of presents that even the grumpiest Lincolnshire poacher would be pleased to find in his stocking on Christmas Day.
Of course you haven't got all the presents you asked Santa for. Manufacturing, although growing this year, is still some 5% below pre-crisis levels and business lending and investment has not recovered in line with the rest of the economy. The West and East Midlands, the latter particularly, have been hardest hit, But the government and BoE do recognise this problem and priorities are changing to concentrate on this area from 2014 onward.
There is therefore a very good chance that if you are a good boy all year, and don't rage against St George and Guv'nor Carney, that your unfulfilled list will be satisfied by Santa in Christmases to come.
So of course I am full of seasonal good cheer. And so should you be. A Merry Christmas to you, ar, and all on PB.