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On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels – politicalbetting.com
On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels – politicalbetting.com
Betfair might have suspended White House race betting but @Smarkets is still active – latest prices pic.twitter.com/QWUAVa1I7S
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FirstSUSPENDEDAnd as a good a Monday to everyone as can be had in these times.
Bordering on irresponsible, IMO.
They have even suspended the Winning Party market, which is utterly absurd, given that nether party has thought it even remotely a consideration to suspend their respective campaigns.
While it is true that no one has any real idea of Trump’s condition, there’s no danger of a false market, as everyone ought to have been fully aware for a long time that he is an inveterate liar and dissembler.
https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1312709878859935746
I had a few small bets on football matches over the weekend. Was mildly surprised the one on Liverpool losing (10.5) came off. Leicester also lost, and Manchester City only drew. Bit surprised.
TSE is hoping so anyway.
Think I have small bets on this with the Betfair Exchange but mostly Ladbrokes bets, and some covering on the exchange there. The lack of clarity from the former is not fantastic.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1311779525429268482
I think the bulk of the move happened following the first debate not the illness. There just seems to have been a small move from Trump to Pence, not a major move from Trump to Biden.
When BF do reopen for business, I don`t know if or which way I will bet due to the interpretation of BF rules as understood by some on here.
I have have Laid Trump big and also have Backed Pence. If Trump were to bow out through ill health and Pence were to run for President instead - going on to win so that Pence is Next President - I would expect to win my Trump bet and win my Pence bet.
However, according to some on here I would lose both bets.
There has been a risk premium in Trump and Biden`s price from the off - originally due to age but now amplified due to Covid. For the above interpretation to be right the risk premium should not have been there (at least after the nomination stage). That leads me to think that there may be an opportunity to back Trump when Bf opens as I suspect, looking as Smarket odds, that he is going to open higher-priced that when Bf suspended the market and part of this higher price could? be based on a misunderstanding on BF rules.
Any views on all this?
Mr. L, hope you day is less soggy than recent ones have been.
There is a storm brewing for BF.
I assisted the Crown in the first case in Scotland where a man was convicted for reckless endangerment for having unprotected sex with a woman when he knew he was HIV+. This was back when HIV was a fairly short death sentence and it was prosecuted in the High Court. To me, exactly the same logic applies here. Chris Christie, for example, could surely sue.
HMG gave NS&I a stonking target for the money they wanted it to bring in, hence its interest rates have remained above 1%, even for instant access. Meanwhile every other financial institution has cut their rates and the money has been pouring into NS&I. So they've just given notice that as from 24 November all their rates will basically be cut to nil (0.01% and the like).
From memory the winner is the "projected" winner according to the rules? Well, if hypothetically Trump pulls out now and is replaced by Pence then even if the ballot papers say Trump the "projected" winner if the GOP wins on the night will be Pence.
Others take the other view, an overly literal interpretation that the ballot paper says Trump so Trump will have won. But in that scenario I think the media and everyone will be projecting that Pence has won, so you would win your bet.
The key is who interprets who has "projected" the winner. The rules don't, as some seem to think, insist upon the name on the ballot paper being the winner.
But it turned out they meant the one which had just happened!
It's amazing that with all of his buddies so expert in data analysis that Dom allowed this to occur on his watch...
'If people with coronavirus (COVID-19) were at the venue at a similar time as you, a human contact tracer from the Contact Tracing and Advisory Service (CTAS), or the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC), will look into the case. They'll evaluate the risk level based on the type of venue and the details of the case. This will help them decide who may be at risk.'
It continues, on another page:
'If local health protection teams decide that people with coronavirus have been to a venue, they may decide anyone who was at that venue at a certain time should get an alert. This is so people are made aware and can monitor their symptoms.'
In other words it appears that the Track and Trace people ask 'suspects' to decide whether they were in contact or not. So if I book into the pub at 5pm, stay there for an hour and then go home, and someone who is positive goes in at 8pm, Track & Trace may ring me. I assume, although the site doesn't say this, that the tracer will tell me that the suspect went to the pub at 8, and allow me to make a decision about getting tested or not.
I'm not sure that's entirely satisfactory.
If they had simply based it on EC votes cast everything would be clear. But they wanted to be able to settle the market quicker than December and so they have fucked themselves and the punters.
If Trump has withdrawn then it would be reasonable to "project" that Trump/Pence ticket votes are for Electoral College votes who will back Pence to be POTUS.
This is the key paragraph and it as ambiguous as all heck.
Who is projecting? What happens if a candidate withdraws? Or dies prior to election day.
As early votes are brig cast the election has taken place according to the rules and those votes are going to Trump.
Etc.
Anyone saying this is clear is not imaginative enough.
That’s a) exactly the kind of setup you’d expect if you were hacking together a system like this as fast as possible and b) exactly the kind of thing that might get missed.
Of course, a well run system would be doing end-to-end reconciliation checks on a daily basis to make damn sure this didn’t happen but we know the calibre of the kind of organisations that the government has chosen to employ & they don’t exactly inspire confidence do they?
The *candidate* means the person nominated. That's Trump not Pence.
I don't know how betfair will decide though.
And still I can't relax.
We awaiting Dido's statement if one is forthcoming.
If Betfair hadn't used the word projected it would be a lot clearer.
"Congratulations, you've just lost £25!"
And the biggest data analysis challenge of our lives is here. And it's garbage...
Dan, it's 2020 mate.
They reduced the returns to 0.01%
As long as inflation is less than that you will still make money...
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2020/09/premium-bond-prize-rate-to-be-slashed-to-1-/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/macron-won-but-the-french-polls-were-way-off/
Also, he doesn't seem to know what "order of magnitude" means.
I’m still utterly nonplussed by the suspension of the winning party market.
Though it’s possible I’m misremembering.
Watchdogs demand election night clarity from the media
The National Task Force on Election Crises wants to know from news organizations how they'll handle election night — and what happens if a candidate declares victory prematurely.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/17/election-night-2020-calling-winner-416644
The Fox News Powder Keg
On November 3, the network’s framing of the election narrative may help alleviate nationwide chaos—or sow it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/how-fox-news-could-influence-election-day-2020/616512/
... I asked the Biden campaign how it plans to respond if various networks are out of sync in calling the race in November. “We expect all news organizations who make determinations about election results to act responsibly based on data and their duty to tell the American people the truth, as they all have during past presidential elections,” T.J. Ducklo, Joe Biden’s national press secretary, said. I posed the same question to the Trump campaign, which offered no response.
In a statement, Fox News said: “The integrity of our Decision Desk is rock solid. We have full confidence in each of the consummate professionals who run it and who are in charge of our Voter Analysis System, which made its stellar debut in the 2018 mid-term elections. We will call this presidential election carefully and accurately, relying on data and numbers.”
What, I asked Rove, is the responsibility of a channel such as Fox News on an election night?
“Not to make a premature call,” he said flatly....
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-victory-covid-19-death-toll-latest-a9423121.html