Perfect in what way? It sounds like the sort of thing an absolute and partisan dick might write.
A quick check of his feed confirms as much.
A Trumper too. Philip will be proud to identify with such people.
IF I wanted to know yesterday's weather - and there are sometimes situations where you might want to know yesterday's weather - then yes I would definitely trust Starmer to give an accurate and honest answer over Johnson who is totally full of shit.
So the spreadsheet they were using for the results reached its maximum size and simply excluded all the results that followed.
Epic fail.
WTAF? Who works with large datasets and doesn't know that Excel has a maximum file size? I despair.
The email size limit being the issue seems more believable; the maximum excel size/length is surely enormous?
Edit: Ah, if the entire list of cases is being stored in Excel I could see that being an issue! Weird that they were still able to add some cases but not all on the affected days though.
It is pretty big but big datasets quickly exhaust it (eg the global Google mobility data are now too large to open in Excel).
Yeah, but it's odd it didn't just grind to a halt completely one day once that limit was reached, rather than being able to add only half of the cases. Anyway, they should be storing the raw counts separately by day and ingesting those into a proper database, SQL or something.
Yes, in data management terms it is utterly woeful. Can you imagine being the person in charge of this and the moment when they realised what was going on? It's the kind of awful basic mistake that anyone who works with data has probably had a nightmare about.
Well it makes me think the reason they give isn't the actual reason, since it doesn't actually make sense when you think about it.
Yes it doesn't make any sense, Excel can currently handle over a million lines in a spreadsheet, I doubt it is a file size issue. It's going to be a formatting issue because python doesn't work very well with Excel files and the system will be made to parse CSVs.
To think I felt bad when many years ago an excel report I authored turned out to be bollocks when the CSV files it came from dropped all the leading zeroes in every cell.
In the BetFair rules the key phrase is "projected Electoral College Votes".
What are Electoral College Votes?
"Electors meet in their respective state capitals (electors for the District of Columbia meet within the District) on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December, at which time they cast their electoral votes on separate ballots for president and vice president". "Each elector submits a written ballot with the name of a candidate for president. Ballot formats vary between the states: in New Jersey for example, the electors cast ballots by checking the name of the candidate on a pre-printed card; in North Carolina, the electors write the name of the candidate on a blank card. The tellers count the ballots and announce the result." [Wikipedia]
Note that these ballots are not the ones that the public use for the November 3rd General Election. They are specifically for use by Electors of the Electoral College.
In the event of a Pence replacement for Trump, without central guidance, it is likely that some Electors with put Pence on their ballot paper and some will put Trump.
There is bound to be guidance or an instruction from the Republican National Committee (RNC). When and if the RNC decides to substitute Pence for Trump as candidate for President, it will almost certainly also instruct Republican Electors on the 9th December to cast their ballots for Pence not Trump to avoid a split vote and to avoid any challenge to the legitimacy of a Pence presidency.
The Electoral College Votes would be for Pence and I'm sure Betfair would settle on that basis but would probably wait until 9th December before doing so.
Yet the betfair rules specifically state "projected", and specifically say they will ignore subsequent "faithless electors" which is what any electors voting for Pence would be.
If Trump withdraws prior to the ballot and the GOP says Pence is the nominee and any Electors they win must faithfully pledge for Pence then are they truly faithless if they do?
It doesn't matter. BF will go by the "projection" once votes are counted. If the "projection" is that 300 electors will vote in a way that "many people", or the vast majority of the commentariat, or most lawyers for that matter, call "faithless", that still doesn't matter. That's "subsequent". BF say "subsequent" doesn't matter. What matters is the "projection". Of course if there is no consensus on what to "project", then we have a problem. But if the RNC nominate Pence as their candidate on say 10 October and he accepts their nomination, debates Biden on the TV, and so on, and then the GOP ticket - which may have "Trump/Pence" written on it in some or even in all states - wins enough states, then BF will pay out on Pence.
Well in 2016 they said they wouldn't pay out on Paine in a similar scenario.
Were their rules the same in 2016, though ?
Largely but this they are even more explicit so in the event of withdrawal/death so that Paine principle is confirmed.
What is the Paine principle? What is the story? Any link?
Back in 2016 when Hillary had her health scares and some were ramping that she might not make it to election day I asked Betfair what would happen if she died/withdrew from the race and the DNC made Paine (or A N Other) their candidate would they pay out on that candidate being the next President.
Betfair informed me that no they wouldn't because the ballot papers had been printed and in some places already sent in so the electoral college would have to legally vote for HRC in over 30 states even if she was dead, they would pay out on Hillary being the winning candidate.
If in the scenario I was talking about I should back the Dems in the winning party market.
I'll try and find the chat logs/screen shots.
This argument is reinforced by their current T&Cs
'If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.'
Thanks. So it hinges on the assertion that "the electoral college would have to legally vote for HRC in over 30 states even if she was dead." I wonder what law that is? I wonder if the BF spokesperson is still in place? It does muddy the water. You would think that BF would ensure there was no doubt in the rules - though I think the defined rules are clear and unambiguous.
It's going to turn in a bloody mess, another reason for Trump to survive Covid-19.
It is possible that some cunning Dems who make up the electoral college split the GOP vote if Trump dies, so it could see Trump on say 150 electoral college votes, and Pence say on 118 electoral college votes.
Betfair are also quite clear the winner of this market has to become President via the 12th amendment not the 25th amendment, something the Pelosi backers seem not to be aware of.
There is a path for Pelosi to win via the 12th, but its extraordinarily unlikely. Hundreds to one at least.
Not going to happen, it is too late, the ballot papers have been printed, the candidates have been chosen.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
Betfair were right to suspend when the news broke but should now re-open the market. It is clear that Trump is neither dying nor pulling out incapacitated. The interesting question is how this episode will affect the rest of the campaign and the result. Does it make any difference at all? If so, does it help him or hurt him? These are valid bettable issues.
I think he was infected days before he has admitted - probably at the nomination ceremony (which I believe was Saturday 26th). So almost a week before. He was sweating profusely at the debate and showed up late. An American friend of mine says that the lateness was deliberate so as to be too late to get tested before the debate, but I don`t know whether this is true.
The point is that Trump probably already knew he was infected when the debate took place, and possibly days before as well. Then he went on to a rally In Minnesota and a fundraiser. Not to mention potentially infecting White House staff.
So, if the above hypothesis is true - what follows?
Well there will be claims that he criminally infected other people. Will this affect his votes? I`m guessing, yes, but not significantly.
On the other side, my take on the debate is that it was a score draw. Trump repulsive as ever but Biden, I felt, came over as someone who was easily bullied by Trump. Wimpish even. Harsh, I know, but this may have an affect in the other direction - along with the new Trump narrative that "I beat Covid and Biden is a pussy".
At the future debates (I think they will go ahead) Trump will no doubt bully again - and again try to trigger a Biden stuttering episode to build up the new Trump narrative.
So. Yes, I`m worried.
I'm less so but am not as relaxed as I was before this episode.
What Trump price would tempt you to cash out?
That`s an excellent question - the very one I`ve been contemplating over the weekend.
My default position is that I don`t "cash out". Each bet is a judgement in itself at the prevailing odds. One`s existing bets are irrelevant in this evaluation. However, my confusion over BF`s rules have unsettled me somewhat I admit.
I won`t cash out (BF`s cash out is a mirage anyway - it just tempts new bets) but I may consider backing Trump when the price is above the probability as I see it. Smarkets, which are open, have Trump at 3.35. I`d want more than that. I`d be very tempted at anything over 4.
Yes I meant a back back not using the "cashout" button. And of course you are strictly speaking right. There is no cash out. There is only doing a new bet or not. But your existing position is a bit relevant because of cash flow and risk appetite etc. I agree with over 4. Well over 4 in fact. My supremacy at 28, if that gets close to 100 I will be snaffling it. In the 60s when he threw his sickie.
If you bring cash flow and risk appetite into it, the betting returns are very likely to be sub-optimal. It should solely be about probability.
If you have total assets of say £1 million and you are offered 10/1 on a 6 coming up on a fair 6 sided dice, would you put the million on it?
In the BetFair rules the key phrase is "projected Electoral College Votes".
What are Electoral College Votes?
"Electors meet in their respective state capitals (electors for the District of Columbia meet within the District) on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December, at which time they cast their electoral votes on separate ballots for president and vice president". "Each elector submits a written ballot with the name of a candidate for president. Ballot formats vary between the states: in New Jersey for example, the electors cast ballots by checking the name of the candidate on a pre-printed card; in North Carolina, the electors write the name of the candidate on a blank card. The tellers count the ballots and announce the result." [Wikipedia]
Note that these ballots are not the ones that the public use for the November 3rd General Election. They are specifically for use by Electors of the Electoral College.
In the event of a Pence replacement for Trump, without central guidance, it is likely that some Electors with put Pence on their ballot paper and some will put Trump.
There is bound to be guidance or an instruction from the Republican National Committee (RNC). When and if the RNC decides to substitute Pence for Trump as candidate for President, it will almost certainly also instruct Republican Electors on the 9th December to cast their ballots for Pence not Trump to avoid a split vote and to avoid any challenge to the legitimacy of a Pence presidency.
The Electoral College Votes would be for Pence and I'm sure Betfair would settle on that basis but would probably wait until 9th December before doing so.
Yet the betfair rules specifically state "projected", and specifically say they will ignore subsequent "faithless electors" which is what any electors voting for Pence would be.
If Trump withdraws prior to the ballot and the GOP says Pence is the nominee and any Electors they win must faithfully pledge for Pence then are they truly faithless if they do?
It doesn't matter. BF will go by the "projection" once votes are counted. If the "projection" is that 300 electors will vote in a way that "many people", or the vast majority of the commentariat, or most lawyers for that matter, call "faithless", that still doesn't matter. That's "subsequent". BF say "subsequent" doesn't matter. What matters is the "projection". Of course if there is no consensus on what to "project", then we have a problem. But if the RNC nominate Pence as their candidate on say 10 October and he accepts their nomination, debates Biden on the TV, and so on, and then the GOP ticket - which may have "Trump/Pence" written on it in some or even in all states - wins enough states, then BF will pay out on Pence.
Well in 2016 they said they wouldn't pay out on Paine in a similar scenario.
Were their rules the same in 2016, though ?
Largely but this they are even more explicit so in the event of withdrawal/death so that Paine principle is confirmed.
What is the Paine principle? What is the story? Any link?
Back in 2016 when Hillary had her health scares and some were ramping that she might not make it to election day I asked Betfair what would happen if she died/withdrew from the race and the DNC made Paine (or A N Other) their candidate would they pay out on that candidate being the next President.
Betfair informed me that no they wouldn't because the ballot papers had been printed and in some places already sent in so the electoral college would have to legally vote for HRC in over 30 states even if she was dead, they would pay out on Hillary being the winning candidate.
If in the scenario I was talking about I should back the Dems in the winning party market.
I'll try and find the chat logs/screen shots.
This argument is reinforced by their current T&Cs
'If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.'
Betfair have also been quite clear (thanks to a rules update yesterday) that the election is currently in progress and will count as having happened as per their rules.
Yet the market doesn't go "in-play" until November.
Betfair were right to suspend when the news broke but should now re-open the market. It is clear that Trump is neither dying nor pulling out incapacitated. The interesting question is how this episode will affect the rest of the campaign and the result. Does it make any difference at all? If so, does it help him or hurt him? These are valid bettable issues.
I think he was infected days before he has admitted - probably at the nomination ceremony (which I believe was Saturday 26th). So almost a week before. He was sweating profusely at the debate and showed up late. An American friend of mine says that the lateness was deliberate so as to be too late to get tested before the debate, but I don`t know whether this is true.
The point is that Trump probably already knew he was infected when the debate took place, and possibly days before as well. Then he went on to a rally In Minnesota and a fundraiser. Not to mention potentially infecting White House staff.
So, if the above hypothesis is true - what follows?
Well there will be claims that he criminally infected other people. Will this affect his votes? I`m guessing, yes, but not significantly.
On the other side, my take on the debate is that it was a score draw. Trump repulsive as ever but Biden, I felt, came over as someone who was easily bullied by Trump. Wimpish even. Harsh, I know, but this may have an affect in the other direction - along with the new Trump narrative that "I beat Covid and Biden is a pussy".
At the future debates (I think they will go ahead) Trump will no doubt bully again - and again try to trigger a Biden stuttering episode to build up the new Trump narrative.
So. Yes, I`m worried.
I'm less so but am not as relaxed as I was before this episode.
What Trump price would tempt you to cash out?
That`s an excellent question - the very one I`ve been contemplating over the weekend.
My default position is that I don`t "cash out". Each bet is a judgement in itself at the prevailing odds. One`s existing bets are irrelevant in this evaluation. However, my confusion over BF`s rules have unsettled me somewhat I admit.
I won`t cash out (BF`s cash out is a mirage anyway - it just tempts new bets) but I may consider backing Trump when the price is above the probability as I see it. Smarkets, which are open, have Trump at 3.35. I`d want more than that. I`d be very tempted at anything over 4.
Yes I meant a back back not using the "cashout" button. And of course you are strictly speaking right. There is no cash out. There is only doing a new bet or not. But your existing position is a bit relevant because of cash flow and risk appetite etc. I agree with over 4. Well over 4 in fact. My supremacy at 28, if that gets close to 100 I will be snaffling it. In the 60s when he threw his sickie.
If you bring cash flow and risk appetite into it, the betting returns are very likely to be sub-optimal. It should solely be about probability.
Yes but with 2 provisos. You are betting within limits that if you lose are not life changing. You don't have a better use for the cash tied up.
Does anyone know the best month to buy a new car from a haggling with the dealer point of view?
The end of the month is always better but in general it's an inconsequential difference compared to flexibility on colour/options so they can shift inventory.
Hammer them down to the lowest price then when you're about to sign tell them you don't love them, you don't love their fucking car and you're going to another dealer of the same brand. If the other dealer offers you a quid less they'll never see you again so they better think again.
Paying cash/finance comes into it as well. You'll generally do better if you're taking the shit finance from the dealer. I like to tell them I need finance then change my mind and switch to cash for the cum shot.
The worst part isn't even that all this is being managed in excel, it's the whole 'new column for each case' design.
It's a sign of how crap Excel is that it should matter. In a mathematical sense what's the difference?
I know that, for people used to working with databases the row-orientation is instinctive, but in terms of the quantity of data there's no distinction.
The worst part isn't even that all this is being managed in excel, it's the whole 'new column for each case' design.
It's a sign of how crap Excel is that it should matter. In a mathematical sense what's the difference?
I know that, for people used to working with databases the row-orientation is instinctive, but in terms of the quantity of data there's no distinction.
I suppose if they tried using a database it would have been MS-Access
It beggars belief that they are storing this data in a spreadsheet! Have they not heard of databases?
They aren't, the API runs from a Microsoft SQL database and the PowerBI visualisations run from it too.
I presume you're talking about the API for the Coronavirus Dashboard on gov.uk, whereas the issue with Excel storage seems to be further back in the data processing chain.
Good job Dom keeps hiring misfits and weirdos instead of experts eh?
Tbh, misfits and weirdos probably wouldn't make these mistakes. It strikes me as a classic case of public sector tech not understanding their stakeholders.
In the BetFair rules the key phrase is "projected Electoral College Votes".
What are Electoral College Votes?
"Electors meet in their respective state capitals (electors for the District of Columbia meet within the District) on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December, at which time they cast their electoral votes on separate ballots for president and vice president". "Each elector submits a written ballot with the name of a candidate for president. Ballot formats vary between the states: in New Jersey for example, the electors cast ballots by checking the name of the candidate on a pre-printed card; in North Carolina, the electors write the name of the candidate on a blank card. The tellers count the ballots and announce the result." [Wikipedia]
Note that these ballots are not the ones that the public use for the November 3rd General Election. They are specifically for use by Electors of the Electoral College.
In the event of a Pence replacement for Trump, without central guidance, it is likely that some Electors with put Pence on their ballot paper and some will put Trump.
There is bound to be guidance or an instruction from the Republican National Committee (RNC). When and if the RNC decides to substitute Pence for Trump as candidate for President, it will almost certainly also instruct Republican Electors on the 9th December to cast their ballots for Pence not Trump to avoid a split vote and to avoid any challenge to the legitimacy of a Pence presidency.
The Electoral College Votes would be for Pence and I'm sure Betfair would settle on that basis but would probably wait until 9th December before doing so.
Yet the betfair rules specifically state "projected", and specifically say they will ignore subsequent "faithless electors" which is what any electors voting for Pence would be.
If Trump withdraws prior to the ballot and the GOP says Pence is the nominee and any Electors they win must faithfully pledge for Pence then are they truly faithless if they do?
It doesn't matter. BF will go by the "projection" once votes are counted. If the "projection" is that 300 electors will vote in a way that "many people", or the vast majority of the commentariat, or most lawyers for that matter, call "faithless", that still doesn't matter. That's "subsequent". BF say "subsequent" doesn't matter. What matters is the "projection". Of course if there is no consensus on what to "project", then we have a problem. But if the RNC nominate Pence as their candidate on say 10 October and he accepts their nomination, debates Biden on the TV, and so on, and then the GOP ticket - which may have "Trump/Pence" written on it in some or even in all states - wins enough states, then BF will pay out on Pence.
Well in 2016 they said they wouldn't pay out on Paine in a similar scenario.
Were their rules the same in 2016, though ?
Largely but this they are even more explicit so in the event of withdrawal/death so that Paine principle is confirmed.
What is the Paine principle? What is the story? Any link?
Back in 2016 when Hillary had her health scares and some were ramping that she might not make it to election day I asked Betfair what would happen if she died/withdrew from the race and the DNC made Paine (or A N Other) their candidate would they pay out on that candidate being the next President.
Betfair informed me that no they wouldn't because the ballot papers had been printed and in some places already sent in so the electoral college would have to legally vote for HRC in over 30 states even if she was dead, they would pay out on Hillary being the winning candidate.
If in the scenario I was talking about I should back the Dems in the winning party market.
I'll try and find the chat logs/screen shots.
This argument is reinforced by their current T&Cs
'If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.'
Betfair have also been quite clear (thanks to a rules update yesterday) that the election is currently in progress and will count as having happened as per their rules.
Yet the market doesn't go "in-play" until November.
Shambles.
I'm using stronger languages.
I've had to deal with a rather patronising agent when I asked why they had suspended the winning party market.
Their defence 'With two 70 odd year old candidates I should have known the markets might be suspended because of ill health.'
I said your own terms say death won't impact this market which is why I bet on this market especially.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
The Electors contend that elector discretion is needed to deal with the possibility that a future presidential candidate will die between Election Day and the Electoral College vote. See Reply Brief 20–22. We do not dismiss how much turmoil such an event could cause. In recognition of that fact, some States have drafted their pledge laws to give electors voting discretion when their candidate has died. See, e.g., Cal. Elec. Code Ann. §6906; Ind. Code §3–10–4–1.7. And we suspect that in such a case, States without a specific provision would also release electors from their pledge. Still, we note that because the situation is not before us, nothing in this opinion should be taken to permit the States to bind electors to a deceased candidate.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
The Electors contend that elector discretion is needed to deal with the possibility that a future presidential candidate will die between Election Day and the Electoral College vote. See Reply Brief 20–22. We do not dismiss how much turmoil such an event could cause. In recognition of that fact, some States have drafted their pledge laws to give electors voting discretion when their candidate has died. See, e.g., Cal. Elec. Code Ann. §6906; Ind. Code §3–10–4–1.7. And we suspect that in such a case, States without a specific provision would also release electors from their pledge. Still, we note that because the situation is not before us, nothing in this opinion should be taken to permit the States to bind electors to a deceased candidate.
Good job Dom keeps hiring misfits and weirdos instead of experts eh?
Tbh, misfits and weirdos probably wouldn't make these mistakes. It strikes me as a classic case of public sector tech not understanding their stakeholders.
We hired a tech "misfit" once - found the most ridiculous complicated and ineffecient ways of doing anything. It kind of worked but was slow to deliver and even slower to adapt anything. Obviously didnt last long, being a misfit doesnt make someone good at their job.
I suppose if they tried using a database it would have been MS-Access
It beggars belief that they are storing this data in a spreadsheet! Have they not heard of databases?
They aren't, the API runs from a Microsoft SQL database and the PowerBI visualisations run from it too.
I presume you're talking about the API for the Coronavirus Dashboard on gov.uk, whereas the issue with Excel storage seems to be further back in the data processing chain.
I don't think Excel is used except to generate the CSV upload files and the database is the source of truth rather than a series of Excel files. As I said the most likely source of error is people uploading XSLX files into a python script which will only work with CSVs. This has become an issue when third parties (universities) have had access so it stands to reason that the people doing the uploads didn't realise XSLX files won't work with python
The file size limitation makes no sense at all, Excel has over a million rows available and the new case per column doesn't make sense either because none of the days had more than 16.5k cases reported. Most likely Politico have a political source who also doesn't understand how these things actually work.
I've seen the XSLX into pyhon fuck up loads of times, it's definitely something that can happen in such a disparate system with hundreds of health trusts, testing centres and now universities all reporting in separately.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
In addition to reopening the markets (how much business are they losing to competitors over this?) BF needs to clarify the market rules on their Next President market.
When BF do reopen for business, I don`t know if or which way I will bet due to the interpretation of BF rules as understood by some on here.
I have have Laid Trump big and also have Backed Pence. If Trump were to bow out through ill health and Pence were to run for President instead - going on to win so that Pence is Next President - I would expect to win my Trump bet and win my Pence bet.
However, according to some on here I would lose both bets.
There has been a risk premium in Trump and Biden`s price from the off - originally due to age but now amplified due to Covid. For the above interpretation to be right the risk premium should not have been there (at least after the nomination stage). That leads me to think that there may be an opportunity to back Trump when Bf opens as I suspect, looking as Smarket odds, that he is going to open higher-priced that when Bf suspended the market and part of this higher price could? be based on a misunderstanding on BF rules.
Any views on all this?
It's a sad fact with BF that the title of their bets often don't match up with the published small print rules. An earlier classis was "will there be a no deal Brexit, yes or no" where the small print had a whole stack of provisos and tied the bet to a particular date. So you have to be very careful to make sure that what you think you are betting on is indeed the case.
Indeed. The title of the market is "Presidential Election 2020 - Next President". I`ve been laying Trump for months and I admit I didn`t look at the rules initially, thinking that the title of market pretty much said it all. When I did check the rules the last sentence, that basically says the market doesn`t void if someone dies, was reassuring (I thought). What`s concerning is that experienced PB.com punters take opposite interpretations of their rules.
There is a storm brewing for BF.
I think some people overcomplicate and overthink matters.
From memory the winner is the "projected" winner according to the rules? Well, if hypothetically Trump pulls out now and is replaced by Pence then even if the ballot papers say Trump the "projected" winner if the GOP wins on the night will be Pence.
Others take the other view, an overly literal interpretation that the ballot paper says Trump so Trump will have won. But in that scenario I think the media and everyone will be projecting that Pence has won, so you would win your bet.
The key is who interprets who has "projected" the winner. The rules don't, as some seem to think, insist upon the name on the ballot paper being the winner.
I think it's wise to *actually read the rules* rather than relying on your recollection.
From the rules link, I think it matches Philip's recollection:
Event Start Time 03 November 2020, 20:00 Win Only Market
MARKET INFORMATION
For further information please see Rules & Regs.
Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?
This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
Additional candidates may be added to this market on request.
Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.
Customers should be aware that:
Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed.
The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.
Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules. 16:00 17/06/2020 –Market rules have been updated to reflect new information above..
If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules (Updated - 20/06/2020)
Sorry but i think there is an important difference between 'projected winner' and candidate projected to win EC votes at 2020 election.
The *candidate* means the person nominated. That's Trump not Pence.
I disagree. They say "Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market." There is no way that that only means those whose names are printed on ballots even if they're dead and who were standing for parties which have now chosen replacements. It means everyone on the BF list.
It means that BF believe there is a chance that any of their "runners", i.e. anyone they have got listed, has a chance of being the winning "candidate", meaning the person who gets a majority of projected ECVs or who is appointed by the 12th amendment procedure.
And BF are quite right about that. If we just look at the PECVs, that literally CAN be anybody who is alive. (Sorry but members of the EC in my opinion will not vote for a person they know to be dead.) House delegations have to vote for one of the leading 3 candidates by ECVs (although goodness knows what happens if there is a tie for 3rd place, or if only two candidates won any votes in the EC and they both died after the EC votes were submitted). But there is no such restriction for members of the EC, who can vote for anyone (who is eligible, born in the US, etc.). Never mind state law here. Perhaps they will end up in state jail if they defy state authorities. That doesn't matter. The person they vote for doesn't (by federal law) have to be a person who was named on ballots for hoi polloi. This is not a pedantic point. On the contrary, it is the basis of where BF are coming from when they write that "each candidate is still a valid runner in this market" - meaning that they will remain a "valid runner" until the market is fully settled. That's slightly vague terminology, but it means that the "projected winner" of the EC could, as far as they and we know now, be anybody. It could for example be Oprah Winfrey - who was available until recently at 1000 and will presumably still be available at that price when the market reopens. So don't worry, @Stocky. If Trump withdraws and Pence becomes the GOP candidate, i.e. he is chosen by the RNC and the GOP then tell voters that "If it says 'Trump' on your ballot paper, that means 'Pence' ", and Pence then wins in enough states to be "projected" to win a majority of ECVs, then you will win your bet on Pence.
It doesn't matter whether dead people have been elected in other elections in the US. No serious "projector" will "project" that EC members will vote for someone they know is dead, and it won't happen.
Welcome - and thank you for your detailed comments. You seem very well informed - and this is your first post - is this some form of official response by any chance?
Thanks. No, it's just my take on it, but I have a lot staked and before staking I considered this very carefully.
Which way are you betting, if you don`t mind me asking?
Today is our 35th wedding anniversary. We are out for afternoon tea at the Old Course hotel later. The planned walk is looking a little problematic, however. Some minor roads are closed with flooding around here.
Congrats! - Squeeze in a few holes too?
Lord no, what a waste of time that would be. I find golf just beyond tedious. The only good things about it are the walk and the outdoors.
The sandpit things on my local course are excellent for jumping my CRF250.
You go to extraordinary lengths to achieve a certain level of popularity, don't you? Remarkable.
Leave Dura-ace alone - he`s comedy gold.
When I was 18 me and my mate did donuts on a golf course in his dad's W115 220 automatic. It open diffed and blew up the torque convertor on the second loop. His dad was livid and sent him to Sunderland Polytechnic as punishment.
Great place Sunderland Poly. At least in it's previous incarnation! Met my wife there 61 years ago!
Today is our 35th wedding anniversary. We are out for afternoon tea at the Old Course hotel later. The planned walk is looking a little problematic, however. Some minor roads are closed with flooding around here.
Congrats! - Squeeze in a few holes too?
Lord no, what a waste of time that would be. I find golf just beyond tedious. The only good things about it are the walk and the outdoors.
Oh no. Bang goes another national stereotype. Be none left at this rate.
I played the Ryder Cup course at The Belfry the other week. Shot twice my age - which would have been quite impressive if I were a decade younger.
Brabazon course? That destroyed me a few years back.
I like golf for the competitive aspect, the thrill when you nail a shot and the locations that it puts you in - which are often stunning. As for the "clubhouse aspect": the dress, the tedious lower middle class matey golf banter and jumped up snobbiness - I can do without all of that.
Ha. Another one the same here. I've not played for a year or two mainly because I can't be arsed with golf clubs, but I did enjoy the game itself and used to be half decent at it.
Call me antisocial but I often preferred a game on my own when the course was empty. Could walk at a decent pace and not have to talk about football.
Perhaps that's why I moved on to climbing hills instead.
I like solo golf too. I can get totally absorbed. 4 hours thinking of nothing but how best to navigate the course. Which club? Go for it or not? Where's my ball? Can I get a 6 iron on that? Am I cocking my wrists too early? Should I quieten my legs on the driving? I find it all very therapeutic. The time flies by.
Today is our 35th wedding anniversary. We are out for afternoon tea at the Old Course hotel later. The planned walk is looking a little problematic, however. Some minor roads are closed with flooding around here.
Congrats! - Squeeze in a few holes too?
Lord no, what a waste of time that would be. I find golf just beyond tedious. The only good things about it are the walk and the outdoors.
The sandpit things on my local course are excellent for jumping my CRF250.
You go to extraordinary lengths to achieve a certain level of popularity, don't you? Remarkable.
Leave Dura-ace alone - he`s comedy gold.
When I was 18 me and my mate did donuts on a golf course in his dad's W115 220 automatic. It open diffed and blew up the torque convertor on the second loop. His dad was livid and sent him to Sunderland Polytechnic as punishment.
Great place Sunderland Poly. At least in it's previous incarnation! Met my wife there 61 years ago!
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
The Electors contend that elector discretion is needed to deal with the possibility that a future presidential candidate will die between Election Day and the Electoral College vote. See Reply Brief 20–22. We do not dismiss how much turmoil such an event could cause. In recognition of that fact, some States have drafted their pledge laws to give electors voting discretion when their candidate has died. See, e.g., Cal. Elec. Code Ann. §6906; Ind. Code §3–10–4–1.7. And we suspect that in such a case, States without a specific provision would also release electors from their pledge. Still, we note that because the situation is not before us, nothing in this opinion should be taken to permit the States to bind electors to a deceased candidate.
I think SCOTUS have left themselves enough wriggle room there, but the point is that Chiafalo vs. Washington didn't close the matter as much as you implied it did.
Essentially Chiafalo vs. Washington means that States can act against rogue electors, but if its an organised move because of the incapacity or death of a candidate then that would be a different scenario.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
States with a Dem Governor and State legislature who can award their state’s electoral college votes however they see fit.
In 1981 I created a program for the ZX81 called "Cashcast" which was a spreadsheet designed for budgetting. This was before spreadsheets were available. I put it on sale for £2.99 and sold about 100 copies. I should have persevered.
I am on leave today and am going to see Tenet in South Woodford this afternoon plus facemask after watching Rishi Sunak's speech, cinemas need the money given Bond has been delayed until 2021 now
HYUFD is the solid patriot who would have declared his Woolton pie delicious. Which is to his credit.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
States with a Dem Governor and State legislature who can award their state’s electoral college votes however they see fit.
I suppose if they tried using a database it would have been MS-Access
It beggars belief that they are storing this data in a spreadsheet! Have they not heard of databases?
They aren't, the API runs from a Microsoft SQL database and the PowerBI visualisations run from it too.
I presume you're talking about the API for the Coronavirus Dashboard on gov.uk, whereas the issue with Excel storage seems to be further back in the data processing chain.
I don't think Excel is used except to generate the CSV upload files and the database is the source of truth rather than a series of Excel files. As I said the most likely source of error is people uploading XSLX files into a python script which will only work with CSVs. This has become an issue when third parties (universities) have had access so it stands to reason that the people doing the uploads didn't realise XSLX files won't work with python
The file size limitation makes no sense at all, Excel has over a million rows available and the new case per column doesn't make sense either because none of the days had more than 16.5k cases reported. Most likely Politico have a political source who also doesn't understand how these things actually work.
I've seen the XSLX into pyhon fuck up loads of times, it's definitely something that can happen in such a disparate system with hundreds of health trusts, testing centres and now universities all reporting in separately.
How does that work? Surely a Python script that is expecting a CSV file as input simply wouldn't work if given an XSLX file. The formats are completely different! There would surely be some indication that the process had failed, such as the lack of an output file, for a start.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
States with a Dem Governor and State legislature who can award their state’s electoral college votes however they see fit.
Then you're back to the 12th Amendment, but if the GOP make it clear Pence is the nominee and their ECVs will pledge to Pence before election day then I don't think the Dems would mess around like that.
Though such is the cult of personality around Trump I wouldn't rule out the scenario that the GOP deliberately keeps Trump the nominee to win beyond the grave and Pence would simply go via the 25th instead.
I just had to come off lurk to comment about this whole Excel piece. Ministers are there to run a department. They aren't there to code up virus reporting systems and databases. I don't even know who is responsible for creating it, but it isn't Ministers.
You can laugh all curse all you like but I presume the Ministers trust the advice that they are given with regards to IT systems. I don't think the first question out of their mouths will be "Please describe the flow of data through the system?". It is more likely to be "Will it work?". To which I presume the answer will be given "Yes".
What I'd like to know is what idiot come up with the system that:
1. Used Excel (this is a very poor design choice but modern Excel supports over 1M rows so there might be some logic somewhere for it) 2. Used COLUMNS for each case where the column limit is just over 16K
What manager then signed it off as giving the answer "Yes" to "Will it work?"
So either the government employs in IT the most incompetent people around or there is something fishy going on. Who in the right mind with any experience of IT would design this? It almost seems designed to fail and cause embarrassment. Of course, embarrassment to the government not the idiots who designed and approved it.
I am on leave today and am going to see Tenet in South Woodford this afternoon plus facemask after watching Rishi Sunak's speech, cinemas need the money given Bond has been delayed until 2021 now
HYUFD is the solid patriot who would have declared his Woolton pie delicious. Which is to his credit.
Is "Facemask" any good? I've not seen many reviews for it. I hope the soundmixing is better than Tenet.
Betfair were right to suspend when the news broke but should now re-open the market. It is clear that Trump is neither dying nor pulling out incapacitated. The interesting question is how this episode will affect the rest of the campaign and the result. Does it make any difference at all? If so, does it help him or hurt him? These are valid bettable issues.
I think he was infected days before he has admitted - probably at the nomination ceremony (which I believe was Saturday 26th). So almost a week before. He was sweating profusely at the debate and showed up late. An American friend of mine says that the lateness was deliberate so as to be too late to get tested before the debate, but I don`t know whether this is true.
The point is that Trump probably already knew he was infected when the debate took place, and possibly days before as well. Then he went on to a rally In Minnesota and a fundraiser. Not to mention potentially infecting White House staff.
So, if the above hypothesis is true - what follows?
Well there will be claims that he criminally infected other people. Will this affect his votes? I`m guessing, yes, but not significantly.
On the other side, my take on the debate is that it was a score draw. Trump repulsive as ever but Biden, I felt, came over as someone who was easily bullied by Trump. Wimpish even. Harsh, I know, but this may have an affect in the other direction - along with the new Trump narrative that "I beat Covid and Biden is a pussy".
At the future debates (I think they will go ahead) Trump will no doubt bully again - and again try to trigger a Biden stuttering episode to build up the new Trump narrative.
So. Yes, I`m worried.
I'm less so but am not as relaxed as I was before this episode.
What Trump price would tempt you to cash out?
That`s an excellent question - the very one I`ve been contemplating over the weekend.
My default position is that I don`t "cash out". Each bet is a judgement in itself at the prevailing odds. One`s existing bets are irrelevant in this evaluation. However, my confusion over BF`s rules have unsettled me somewhat I admit.
I won`t cash out (BF`s cash out is a mirage anyway - it just tempts new bets) but I may consider backing Trump when the price is above the probability as I see it. Smarkets, which are open, have Trump at 3.35. I`d want more than that. I`d be very tempted at anything over 4.
Anything over 8 for me.
Well I did say WELL over 4.
But hats off - you, not me, are the ultimate TrumpToaster. Such has always been clear.
It is possible that some cunning Dems who make up the electoral college split the GOP vote if Trump dies, so it could see Trump on say 150 electoral college votes, and Pence say on 118 electoral college votes.
I don't get it, aren't Trump/Pence electors people who were selected by the GOP to represent Trump/Pence? If they have a majority, it doesn't matter what cunning Dems do, unless they're incredibly patient sleeper agents.
I should have been clearer. I'm talking about states in which the Dems control the state house and governorships, some of them have the power to override the electoral college voters and award their state's electoral college voters how they see fit.
It is something the GOP have talked about doing themselves.
I think most (all?) of the swing states have GOP-controlled legislatures, thanks to the post-2010 gerrymanders.
I just had to come off lurk to comment about this whole Excel piece. Ministers are there to run a department. They aren't there to code up virus reporting systems and databases. I don't even know who is responsible for creating it, but it isn't Ministers.
You can laugh all curse all you like but I presume the Ministers trust the advice that they are given with regards to IT systems. I don't think the first question out of their mouths will be "Please describe the flow of data through the system?". It is more likely to be "Will it work?". To which I presume the answer will be given "Yes".
What I'd like to know is what idiot come up with the system that:
1. Used Excel (this is a very poor design choice but modern Excel supports over 1M rows so there might be some logic somewhere for it) 2. Used COLUMNS for each case where the column limit is just over 16K
What manager then signed it off as giving the answer "Yes" to "Will it work?"
So either the government employs in IT the most incompetent people around or there is something fishy going on. Who in the right mind with any experience of IT would design this? It almost seems designed to fail and cause embarrassment. Of course, embarrassment to the government not the idiots who designed and approved it.
Today is our 35th wedding anniversary. We are out for afternoon tea at the Old Course hotel later. The planned walk is looking a little problematic, however. Some minor roads are closed with flooding around here.
Congrats! - Squeeze in a few holes too?
Lord no, what a waste of time that would be. I find golf just beyond tedious. The only good things about it are the walk and the outdoors.
The sandpit things on my local course are excellent for jumping my CRF250.
You go to extraordinary lengths to achieve a certain level of popularity, don't you? Remarkable.
Leave Dura-ace alone - he`s comedy gold.
When I was 18 me and my mate did donuts on a golf course in his dad's W115 220 automatic. It open diffed and blew up the torque convertor on the second loop. His dad was livid and sent him to Sunderland Polytechnic as punishment.
Great place Sunderland Poly. At least in it's previous incarnation! Met my wife there 61 years ago!
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
States with a Dem Governor and State legislature who can award their state’s electoral college votes however they see fit.
Then you're back to the 12th Amendment, but if the GOP make it clear Pence is the nominee and their ECVs will pledge to Pence before election day then I don't think the Dems would mess around like that.
Though such is the cult of personality around Trump I wouldn't rule out the scenario that the GOP deliberately keeps Trump the nominee to win beyond the grave and Pence would simply go via the 25th instead.
But Pence becoming President via the 25th wouldn’t pay out on Betfair.
Today is our 35th wedding anniversary. We are out for afternoon tea at the Old Course hotel later. The planned walk is looking a little problematic, however. Some minor roads are closed with flooding around here.
Congrats! - Squeeze in a few holes too?
Lord no, what a waste of time that would be. I find golf just beyond tedious. The only good things about it are the walk and the outdoors.
The sandpit things on my local course are excellent for jumping my CRF250.
You go to extraordinary lengths to achieve a certain level of popularity, don't you? Remarkable.
Leave Dura-ace alone - he`s comedy gold.
When I was 18 me and my mate did donuts on a golf course in his dad's W115 220 automatic. It open diffed and blew up the torque convertor on the second loop. His dad was livid and sent him to Sunderland Polytechnic as punishment.
Great place Sunderland Poly. At least in it's previous incarnation! Met my wife there 61 years ago!
They have a nice law school there.
Thought you went Geordie, not Mackem?
Oh of course I go Geordie. I just have visited for various talks and networking events. The facilities are nice and the staff are lovely. Just a shame it's in Sunderland really.
Not the world's most surprising news, but thought it was worth a mention since this is the IoD's research. The idea that we're all going to jolly back to the office was always for the birds.
Today is our 35th wedding anniversary. We are out for afternoon tea at the Old Course hotel later. The planned walk is looking a little problematic, however. Some minor roads are closed with flooding around here.
Congrats! - Squeeze in a few holes too?
Lord no, what a waste of time that would be. I find golf just beyond tedious. The only good things about it are the walk and the outdoors.
The sandpit things on my local course are excellent for jumping my CRF250.
You go to extraordinary lengths to achieve a certain level of popularity, don't you? Remarkable.
Leave Dura-ace alone - he`s comedy gold.
When I was 18 me and my mate did donuts on a golf course in his dad's W115 220 automatic. It open diffed and blew up the torque convertor on the second loop. His dad was livid and sent him to Sunderland Polytechnic as punishment.
Great place Sunderland Poly. At least in it's previous incarnation! Met my wife there 61 years ago!
They have a nice law school there.
Thought you went Geordie, not Mackem?
There’s no difference between Geordies and Mackems.
It is possible that some cunning Dems who make up the electoral college split the GOP vote if Trump dies, so it could see Trump on say 150 electoral college votes, and Pence say on 118 electoral college votes.
I don't get it, aren't Trump/Pence electors people who were selected by the GOP to represent Trump/Pence? If they have a majority, it doesn't matter what cunning Dems do, unless they're incredibly patient sleeper agents.
I should have been clearer. I'm talking about states in which the Dems control the state house and governorships, some of them have the power to override the electoral college voters and award their state's electoral college voters how they see fit.
It is something the GOP have talked about doing themselves.
I think most (all?) of the swing states have GOP-controlled legislatures, thanks to the post-2010 gerrymanders.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
States with a Dem Governor and State legislature who can award their state’s electoral college votes however they see fit.
Then you're back to the 12th Amendment, but if the GOP make it clear Pence is the nominee and their ECVs will pledge to Pence before election day then I don't think the Dems would mess around like that.
Though such is the cult of personality around Trump I wouldn't rule out the scenario that the GOP deliberately keeps Trump the nominee to win beyond the grave and Pence would simply go via the 25th instead.
But Pence becoming President via the 25th wouldn’t pay out on Betfair.
Indeed but they may not choose to go that way, they may choose to pledge the voters to Pence and go via the 12th.
In the BetFair rules the key phrase is "projected Electoral College Votes".
What are Electoral College Votes?
"Electors meet in their respective state capitals (electors for the District of Columbia meet within the District) on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December, at which time they cast their electoral votes on separate ballots for president and vice president". "Each elector submits a written ballot with the name of a candidate for president. Ballot formats vary between the states: in New Jersey for example, the electors cast ballots by checking the name of the candidate on a pre-printed card; in North Carolina, the electors write the name of the candidate on a blank card. The tellers count the ballots and announce the result." [Wikipedia]
Note that these ballots are not the ones that the public use for the November 3rd General Election. They are specifically for use by Electors of the Electoral College.
In the event of a Pence replacement for Trump, without central guidance, it is likely that some Electors with put Pence on their ballot paper and some will put Trump.
There is bound to be guidance or an instruction from the Republican National Committee (RNC). When and if the RNC decides to substitute Pence for Trump as candidate for President, it will almost certainly also instruct Republican Electors on the 9th December to cast their ballots for Pence not Trump to avoid a split vote and to avoid any challenge to the legitimacy of a Pence presidency.
The Electoral College Votes would be for Pence and I'm sure Betfair would settle on that basis but would probably wait until 9th December before doing so.
Yet the betfair rules specifically state "projected", and specifically say they will ignore subsequent "faithless electors" which is what any electors voting for Pence would be.
If Trump withdraws prior to the ballot and the GOP says Pence is the nominee and any Electors they win must faithfully pledge for Pence then are they truly faithless if they do?
It doesn't matter. BF will go by the "projection" once votes are counted. If the "projection" is that 300 electors will vote in a way that "many people", or the vast majority of the commentariat, or most lawyers for that matter, call "faithless", that still doesn't matter. That's "subsequent". BF say "subsequent" doesn't matter. What matters is the "projection". Of course if there is no consensus on what to "project", then we have a problem. But if the RNC nominate Pence as their candidate on say 10 October and he accepts their nomination, debates Biden on the TV, and so on, and then the GOP ticket - which may have "Trump/Pence" written on it in some or even in all states - wins enough states, then BF will pay out on Pence.
Well in 2016 they said they wouldn't pay out on Paine in a similar scenario.
Were their rules the same in 2016, though ?
Largely but this they are even more explicit so in the event of withdrawal/death so that Paine principle is confirmed.
What is the Paine principle? What is the story? Any link?
Back in 2016 when Hillary had her health scares and some were ramping that she might not make it to election day I asked Betfair what would happen if she died/withdrew from the race and the DNC made Paine (or A N Other) their candidate would they pay out on that candidate being the next President.
Betfair informed me that no they wouldn't because the ballot papers had been printed and in some places already sent in so the electoral college would have to legally vote for HRC in over 30 states even if she was dead, they would pay out on Hillary being the winning candidate.
If in the scenario I was talking about I should back the Dems in the winning party market.
I'll try and find the chat logs/screen shots.
This argument is reinforced by their current T&Cs
'If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.'
Betfair have also been quite clear (thanks to a rules update yesterday) that the election is currently in progress and will count as having happened as per their rules...
So the spreadsheet they were using for the results reached its maximum size and simply excluded all the results that followed.
Epic fail.
WTAF? Who works with large datasets and doesn't know that Excel has a maximum file size? I despair.
The email size limit being the issue seems more believable; the maximum excel size/length is surely enormous?
Edit: Ah, if the entire list of cases is being stored in Excel I could see that being an issue! Weird that they were still able to add some cases but not all on the affected days though.
I bet the issue is that the upload system only handles CSVs (a python limitation) and Excel files were being put into it. I've seen that happen loads of times because the people making the system intrinsically understand that python works properly with CSVs but doesn't with Excel files but the people doing the uploads don't know the difference.
The format of the file sounds insane - columns for dynamic data is bad.
There is a difference between the candidates chosen and printed on the ballot papers for the election on 3rd November and those for the election on 9th December.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Anxious to avoid chaos in the electoral college just months before the November vote, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that electors who formally select the president can be required by the state they represent to cast their ballot for the candidate who won their state’s popular vote. The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
"The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.""Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights"
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
States with a Dem Governor and State legislature who can award their state’s electoral college votes however they see fit.
Trump is definitely on the mend, he is firing out BIGLY tweets like there is no tomorrow.
It's not him
How do you know?
They're wrong, they haven't got the same style. They've got the superficial elements like capital letters and stupid shit, but there's more to that to a Trump tweet. You can't quite put your finger on the recipe, but that's why they can't imitate it.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54415947
Once Kent is part of France, Sussex becomes the buffer zone before being absorbed. Then Hampshire...
The French border will have reached Sherwood Forest by Mothering Sunday.
The candidates for the Electoral College election may be different and it is the Electoral College election on 9th December that will determine the presidency.
Back to the Whitehouse today?
The justices unanimously rejected the claim that electors have a right under the Constitution to defy their states and vote for the candidate of their choice.
“Electors are not free agents,” Justice Elena Kagan said for the court in Chiafalo vs. Washington. “They are to vote for the candidate whom the state’s voters have chosen.” Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment “give states broad power over electors, and give electors themselves no rights,” she said.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-07-06/supreme-court-electoral-college-states-voters
Tories called out Labour for saying the same thing, will we please have condemnation from PB Tories please?
Yet the market doesn't go "in-play" until November.
Shambles.
That would have been so much better
Hammer them down to the lowest price then when you're about to sign tell them you don't love them, you don't love their fucking car and you're going to another dealer of the same brand. If the other dealer offers you a quid less they'll never see you again so they better think again.
Paying cash/finance comes into it as well. You'll generally do better if you're taking the shit finance from the dealer. I like to tell them I need finance then change my mind and switch to cash for the cum shot.
I know that, for people used to working with databases the row-orientation is instinctive, but in terms of the quantity of data there's no distinction.
I've had to deal with a rather patronising agent when I asked why they had suspended the winning party market.
Their defence 'With two 70 odd year old candidates I should have known the markets might be suspended because of ill health.'
I said your own terms say death won't impact this market which is why I bet on this market especially.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/19-465
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1313067295187652608
I cited the Sharon scenario the other day.
It's not him.
It uses capital letters, and it says stupid shit, but there's more than that to a Trump tweet, there's a certain characteristic je ne sais quoi.
You'd think it would be easy to copy but it's not, it's like trying to imitate Picasso or Ave It.
The file size limitation makes no sense at all, Excel has over a million rows available and the new case per column doesn't make sense either because none of the days had more than 16.5k cases reported. Most likely Politico have a political source who also doesn't understand how these things actually work.
I've seen the XSLX into pyhon fuck up loads of times, it's definitely something that can happen in such a disparate system with hundreds of health trusts, testing centres and now universities all reporting in separately.
So the RNC instruct Republican Electors to cast their ballot on 9th December for Pence. What State is going to use that judgement to insist that that State's Electors vote instead for Trump? Not going to happen.
Essentially Chiafalo vs. Washington means that States can act against rogue electors, but if its an organised move because of the incapacity or death of a candidate then that would be a different scenario.
Which is to his credit.
Though such is the cult of personality around Trump I wouldn't rule out the scenario that the GOP deliberately keeps Trump the nominee to win beyond the grave and Pence would simply go via the 25th instead.
You can laugh all curse all you like but I presume the Ministers trust the advice that they are given with regards to IT systems. I don't think the first question out of their mouths will be "Please describe the flow of data through the system?". It is more likely to be "Will it work?". To which I presume the answer will be given "Yes".
What I'd like to know is what idiot come up with the system that:
1. Used Excel (this is a very poor design choice but modern Excel supports over 1M rows so there might be some logic somewhere for it)
2. Used COLUMNS for each case where the column limit is just over 16K
What manager then signed it off as giving the answer "Yes" to "Will it work?"
So either the government employs in IT the most incompetent people around or there is something fishy going on. Who in the right mind with any experience of IT would design this? It almost seems designed to fail and cause embarrassment. Of course, embarrassment to the government not the idiots who designed and approved it.
But hats off - you, not me, are the ultimate TrumpToaster. Such has always been clear.
But where would you sell Biden EC supremacy?
100 or higher than that?
The bad news is we won't have any seats in Parliament or on the Commission.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54413214
A plain Vanilla test and trace system ... ?