What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
I fear higher than that.
On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.
I could see us reaching 15%
And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
At least one PB stalwart is very keen on state violence to be used in the preservation of his particular constitutional preference.
We will go to the barricades to stop pineapple.
Or is it Radiohead.
I forget.
It's the fiends who listen to Radiohead, put pineapple on pizza AND code in Python.
They are going to get tied to a pile of dynamite, when the revolution comes. Ronda Campesina style.
Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
Another Bozo classic, ‘Christmas and beyond’ being utterly devoid of any useful information.
In this case, I honestly think the behavioural insight people are telling him to say this. From the beginning there has been a careful nudge nudge nudge of the time line. Lets get through to summer, lets get through to Christmas, etc.
If he had just come out and said ok folks, I think 2 years looks at the right timeline, I think anti-lockdown sentiment would have been a lot stronger. Instead loads of people said, yeah I can do 3 months, lets flatten the curve etc, then summer and a vaccine in September, happy days.
Now we keep getting primed with lets get through to Christmas, vaccine coming start of next year....
Betting the farm on a vaccine rather than getting us prepared to learn to live with it.
Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
That's because Jonny Bairstow is overseas playing in the IPL.
The IPL is a different planet? Well, in fairness, no argument from me looking at some of the people who run it.
The match in progress now is taking place about two miles away from me.
Sadly, behind closed doors, which is why I'm not there!
SO MPs who have spouted loud and long about how concerned they are about the government's position and then quietly followed the whip in the Commons are not to be exposed as they hypocrites that they clearly are? You can see the appeal.
A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.
Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self.
Lichtman sounded pretty partisan but I agree that any sympathy would be pretty limited, probably confined to those who are sympathetic to him already. He won't be getting much sympathy from the hundreds of thousands of covid victims, their relatives and friends and loved ones. When the natural sentimentality subsides, the hard fact will remain that he bears a large responsibility for his country's failure to address the crisis promptly and sensibly.
Yes. It's more likely to cement things than move them. I actually think there is a good chance of a massive result - Trump as low as 150 in the EC - which is why I made 'Biden supremacy' my main bet. What I want now (and asap) is him out of hospital and the markets open again.
Yes, we basically want him to follow broadly along Boris's path but it's the lap of the gods now. We're still in the 'could be nothing, could be fatal' stage.
Biden should just play the bit of the debate tape where Trump attacks him for wearing a mask. Over and over again on every TV ad from now until November.
say they export to the EU, which probably includes us until Christmas. Thank God we voted to put a stop to that sort of nonsense.
Thanks for the link. That looks like fresh Bitto, which I was enjoying for lunch when I typed my post, having bought a wedge from Esselunga in Bergamo on Monday morning. But Bitto Storico is something else - already aged for 10-15 years.
Ah OK. I know so little about this I initially assumed Bitto Storico was a weekly journal.
Italian's a tricky language. I once wasted months cos I wrote to the library in Florence asking for a copy of a manuscript and they kept sending back a PREVENTIVO and I kept thinking "uncooperative bastards."
Biden should just play the bit of the debate tape where Trump attacks him for wearing a mask. Over and over again on every TV ad from now until November.
The fool has agreed to do no more negative campaigning whilst Trump is ill. Trump has refused to reciprocate.
The national split of registered voters is something like 40 D, 32 I, 28 R. Now, independents and Democrats are probably less likely to vote, but Rasmussen's split seems just as out of line as NBC's.
He has been in hospital for 72hrs, no I mean 48hrs, no I mean 2 days, 3 days....we have given him the antibody made by rreeggeneratoron...no regenerorn...no...he isn't on oxygen at this moment (looks to the window, for a nurse nodding)...
You'll be back, soon you'll see You'll remember you belong to me You'll be back, time will tell You'll remember that I served you well Oceans rise, empires fall We have seen each other through it all And when push comes to shove I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
You been on the sherry, Barnesian?
He is not the first to compare King Donald to George III.
Thinking about it, a woolen mask might actually be a good idea since it's less likely to get soaked through. Not sure about a knitted one though - all those holes...
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
I was thinking of going to Ll'ane'lli later.
Alternating lately with looking at PB and researching my Carmarthenshire ancestors. My grandfather married a girl from Breconshire but until then everyone on his side seems to have lived in, or moved to Glamorgan's mines from, Carmarthenshire.
My family were all from Carmarthenshire's Gwendraeth Valley. Also known as the "outside half factory" of course.
Isn’t researching family history in Wales basically impossible? All paths just lead to Jones etc within about 10 minutes?
A note on the poll in the header - respondents didn’t say that they would be prepared to contemplate using violence themselves. The poll is still disturbing, but the distinction (along with the degree to which they said they might be prepared to contemplate violence) is important.
The Suffolk University poll (A- 538) of Arizona yesterday also showed Biden doing disproportionately well with older voters. (Indeed, it showed Trump level with Biden among the youngest voters, which is definitely not what you'd expect.)
The Suffolk University poll (A- 538) of Arizona yesterday also showed Biden doing disproportionately well with older voters. (Indeed, it showed Trump level with Biden among the youngest voters, which is definitely not what you'd expect.)
Isn't that the pattern in France too, with the older voters not liking Le Pen and the youngsters more split? The Association between age and right wing voting is much stronger in the UK than elsewhere, I believe.
The national split of registered voters is something like 40 D, 32 I, 28 R. Now, independents and Democrats are probably less likely to vote, but Rasmussen's split seems just as out of line as NBC's.
The original tweeter slightly misreports the situation. In fact, the NBC poll has a 35%/27% Democrat/Republican split, with 32% independent (but the independent is split into "strictly independent" - 13%, "independent, lean GOP" - 9%, and "independent - lean Dem" - 10%).
Looking at the 31 states that require registration by party, the split is about 40/30/30 (although I believe the remaining ones are on average more Republican). So the split is probably about right for a registered voter poll.
The tweeter also says it supposes a turnout advantage for Democrats. It doesn't - it supposes equal turnout among all groups. What it does - correctly - is say there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Where there is a more valid criticism of the NBC sample is that it has 38% with a four year college degree or more education. In fact, these made up 30% of 2016 voters and, whilst that number is edging up over time, it seems high.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
The Suffolk University poll (A- 538) of Arizona yesterday also showed Biden doing disproportionately well with older voters. (Indeed, it showed Trump level with Biden among the youngest voters, which is definitely not what you'd expect.)
Isn't that the pattern in France too, with the older voters not liking Le Pen and the youngsters more split? The Association between age and right wing voting is much stronger in the UK than elsewhere, I believe.
No, as in France the centre-right candidate Fillon comfortably won over 65s in the first round in 2017, Macron only beat Le Pen with pensioners in the run off but Le Pen is the French equivalent of Nick Griffin, Fillon was the French Tory equivalent.
Trump as has been noted also won over 65s comfortably in 2016, though even here the Tories have not always won over 65s, Blair won them in 1997 for instance
The national split of registered voters is something like 40 D, 32 I, 28 R. Now, independents and Democrats are probably less likely to vote, but Rasmussen's split seems just as out of line as NBC's.
The original tweeter slightly misreports the situation. In fact, the NBC poll has a 35%/27% Democrat/Republican split, with 32% independent (but the independent is split into "strictly independent" - 13%, "independent, lean GOP" - 9%, and "independent - lean Dem" - 10%).
Looking at the 31 states that require registration by party, the split is about 40/30/30 (although I believe the remaining ones are on average more Republican). So the split is probably about right for a registered voter poll.
The tweeter also says it supposes a turnout advantage for Democrats. It doesn't - it supposes equal turnout among all groups. What it does - correctly - is say there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Where there is a more valid criticism of the NBC sample is that it has 38% with a four year college degree or more education. In fact, these made up 30% of 2016 voters and, whilst that number is edging up over time, it seems high.
Do you have a link to the demo breakdowns? I didn't see the education breakdowns when I perused the pdf.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
Yep,the issue isn’t their existence per se, but the pandering to and encouraging of them by politicians led by Trump.
This is not generally the same on the left however much people try and skewer mainstream politicians supporting, say,the general BLM message by accusing them of supporting the more dubious groups trying to play on the the legitimate grievance to draw in support for extremist ideology.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
No I am saying they will only condemn white supremacists and not saying anything about this mob.
Who's "they"?
The media as I mentioned in my post.
"The Media". Which media? Newspapers? TV networks? People on Twitter? You've created a bogeyman. I'm willing to bet a vast majority of the people involved in the categories I've just mentioned would condemn supremacists of all races.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
No, you said something irrelevant. People said it was irrelevant. Not the same thing as excusing it.
Irrelevant. Excusable. Smaller. Further away. No one said this stuff was easy, but try to stay with us.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
I completely condemn all white supremacists.
There ^
Not what I asked.
What do you want me to say?
Just a link to your previous condemnation of white supremacists prior to today, otherwise you're a hypocrite.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
I completely condemn all white supremacists.
There ^
Not what I asked.
What do you want me to say?
Just a link to your previous condemnation of white supremacists prior to today, otherwise you're a hypocrite.
Why doesn't today count?
Can you show me your condemnation of black supremacists ever?
The national split of registered voters is something like 40 D, 32 I, 28 R. Now, independents and Democrats are probably less likely to vote, but Rasmussen's split seems just as out of line as NBC's.
The original tweeter slightly misreports the situation. In fact, the NBC poll has a 35%/27% Democrat/Republican split, with 32% independent (but the independent is split into "strictly independent" - 13%, "independent, lean GOP" - 9%, and "independent - lean Dem" - 10%).
Looking at the 31 states that require registration by party, the split is about 40/30/30 (although I believe the remaining ones are on average more Republican). So the split is probably about right for a registered voter poll.
The tweeter also says it supposes a turnout advantage for Democrats. It doesn't - it supposes equal turnout among all groups. What it does - correctly - is say there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Where there is a more valid criticism of the NBC sample is that it has 38% with a four year college degree or more education. In fact, these made up 30% of 2016 voters and, whilst that number is edging up over time, it seems high.
Do you have a link to the demo breakdowns? I didn't see the education breakdowns when I perused the pdf.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
I completely condemn all white supremacists.
There ^
Not what I asked.
What do you want me to say?
Just a link to your previous condemnation of white supremacists prior to today, otherwise you're a hypocrite.
Why doesn't today count?
Can you show me your condemnation of black supremacists ever?
Its a legal demonstration in an "open carry" state isn't it? Or should the 2nd Amendment only apply to white people?
So white supremacists = universal condemnation.
Black supremacists = it's a legal demonstration, no problemo.
Complete double standards.
Who appointed you Condemnation Czar anyway? If condemning black men is what floats your boat then you crack on to the full extent permitted by law, OK? And I'll adhere to my position that I don't think much of the Proud Boys. Live and let live.
They say discharge but they don't say of what, from which orifice.
No doubt he has the virus, but everything they say and do about it looks focus group driven. Too many people have strongly agreed that being in hospital is for losers.
While the media goes on about white supremacists...
twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
So are you saying white supremacists are not bad because there's some black supremacists about?
It's also a false equivalence. There are very few black supremacists and they're a marginalised group within the larger community. There are lots of white supremacists, they're carrying guns and taking orders from the President.
How did I know excuses will be found for this lot?
Perhaps you can direct us towards your past condemnations of Trump and white supremacists?
I completely condemn all white supremacists.
There ^
Not what I asked.
What do you want me to say?
Just a link to your previous condemnation of white supremacists prior to today, otherwise you're a hypocrite.
Why doesn't today count?
Can you show me your condemnation of black supremacists ever?
There's one in the thread header for starters.
This is getting a bit out of hand. Correct me if I`m wrong but NFAC are not black supremacists - by which I mean they are not racists like white supremacist groups. NFAC do not think that black people are superior to white people, they just allege inequality. So, I agree, false equivalence.
I trust that we can all agree that a group - any group of people (or any individual for that matter) - who march down a street with machine guns should be arrested?
Comments
They are going to get tied to a pile of dynamite, when the revolution comes. Ronda Campesina style.
That alone should make people stop and think about how well the polls can be trusted
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1312761022088916998
1980 margin is plausible - no polls have shown an 84 margin so very improbable.
A Wisconsin that is seeing Coronavirus spiral out of control and the GOP have just filed a court case to overturn the Dem governors mask mandate.
The Wisconsin GOP had an in person convention.
Brave Johnson, brave.
Sadly, behind closed doors, which is why I'm not there!
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-poll-idUSKBN26P0DT
As Sunil says: Need more polls
https://www.complex.com/life/not-fucking-around-coalition-grandmaster-jay-explainer
Italian's a tricky language. I once wasted months cos I wrote to the library in Florence asking for a copy of a manuscript and they kept sending back a PREVENTIVO and I kept thinking "uncooperative bastards."
Straight in the bin
The name of their group amuses me.
NBC/WSJ poll early October 2016, Clinton +11%
https://www.scribd.com/document/330170543/9amET-NBCWSJ-release
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/how_we_did
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-after-trump-tape-revelation-clinton-s-lead-double-digits-n663691
https://youtu.be/yJqfNroFp8U
https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1312756949172342784?s=19
https://twitter.com/blevimyers/status/1312463129800974336?s=19
https://twitter.com/jennibee70/status/1312699266566062080?s=20
Second Amendment absolutism has become more absolute since then.
The poll is still disturbing, but the distinction (along with the degree to which they said they might be prepared to contemplate violence) is important.
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1312739757428895745
Looking at the 31 states that require registration by party, the split is about 40/30/30 (although I believe the remaining ones are on average more Republican). So the split is probably about right for a registered voter poll.
The tweeter also says it supposes a turnout advantage for Democrats. It doesn't - it supposes equal turnout among all groups. What it does - correctly - is say there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Where there is a more valid criticism of the NBC sample is that it has 38% with a four year college degree or more education. In fact, these made up 30% of 2016 voters and, whilst that number is edging up over time, it seems high.
Let us laugh at the £115 million centre back pairing of Manchester United.
Trump as has been noted also won over 65s comfortably in 2016, though even here the Tories have not always won over 65s, Blair won them in 1997 for instance
This is not generally the same on the left however much people try and skewer mainstream politicians supporting, say,the general BLM message by accusing them of supporting the more dubious groups trying to play on the the legitimate grievance to draw in support for extremist ideology.
There ^
Irrelevant. Excusable. Smaller. Further away. No one said this stuff was easy, but try to stay with us.
A fact you well know Foxy.
https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1311751216016228352
Black supremacists = it's a legal demonstration, no problemo.
Complete double standards.
Reopen the f'ing markets Betfair.
Can you show me your condemnation of black supremacists ever?
On the other hand the sheer number of people testing positive under a variety of medical establishments must mean that it is a genuine outbreak.
It’s equivalent to saying campaigning should be suspended - a political statement.
Very dodgy indeed.
No doubt he has the virus, but everything they say and do about it looks focus group driven. Too many people have strongly agreed that being in hospital is for losers.
I trust that we can all agree that a group - any group of people (or any individual for that matter) - who march down a street with machine guns should be arrested?