Some frightening polling from America – politicalbetting.com
Holy s**t.Over the course of three years, the number of Americans who say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals has gone up from 8 percent to over 33 percent. pic.twitter.com/JBg3Y83ASK
Its not *that* worrying. That the Americans are mental is priced in surely? That Trump will incite armed maniacs to "monitor" polling stations with AR-15 rifles is priced in surely? this is the county who find it acceptable to protect the rights of lunatics to shoot children in their primary school classroom.
Worrying indeed, but reflective of the extreme polarisation and many instances of actual political violence in recent times.
Sadly, it's something that's likely to get worse before it gets better, the election being more likely to spark further violence than act as a brake on it.
A mob of the MAGA persuasion Engaged in a State House invasion Though heavily armed They left there unharmed And that's how you know they're Caucasian.
A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
Luiz? His shirt pull did not deny a clear an obvious goal scoring opportunity (which is the only question being asked, irrespective of how dumb Luiz was).
Luiz? His shirt pull did not deny a clear an obvious goal scoring opportunity (which is the only question being asked, irrespective of how dumb Luiz was).
My friend remembers a similar situation involving his beloved Blades against Villa earlier on this season that did lead to a red card.
Goes to show that written constitutions and laws don't defend democracy if people are prepared to abuse it.
Eternal vigilance is the only way to protect liberty.
You and I often disagree, but here we do. Abusing 'rights and freedoms' leads to anarchy, which we appear to be frighteningly close to in the USA. The fact that Trump is not prepared to say 'of course' when asked if he'd accept the election result, even if qualified by 'if the Supreme Court accepts it" suggests that mid November in that country could see an outbreak of lawlessness. Fortunately, at time of writing the military seems to be prepared to disregard unlawful orders, even if they come from the Commander in Chief, and it's to be hoped that that's a universally held position.
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
Indeed, not using the Oxford comma is also a capital offence.
A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
I won't believe it until I see the albeit one thousand times smaller than Trump's inauguration crowd, cheering for a victorious sleepy Joe on January 20th.
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
I fear higher than that.
On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
I'd like to think so. But I'm still haunted by the comments BTL on a Telegraph column Dan Hodges wrote a few years back, when he said that the military would be totally unjustified in launching a coup should Jeremy Corbyn be elected PM.
You'll be back, soon you'll see You'll remember you belong to me You'll be back, time will tell You'll remember that I served you well Oceans rise, empires fall We have seen each other through it all And when push comes to shove I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
For comparison, Ipsos had been fairly good for Biden pre-Trump diagnosis (9% lead) so this suggests stability within MOE rather than helping Biden. It's also one poll.
But it does speak to how many people have decided already that there's no real sign of a sympathy move. Bluntly, the "rally to the Commander in Chief, patriots!" versus "daft, mask-dodging old bugger had it coming" tribes were utterly predictable and had effectively formed long before the news broke.
Much has been made comparing Trump's illness to Johnson's. Many mocked Johnson for having said he was shaking hands of people with COVID a month before he became ill.
The difference though is that Johnson's illness was early on, plus the government has already changed tack before he fell ill. When he said he was shaking hands was when the science advice Whitty and Vallance were giving was just wash your hands.
Trump's illness has come better part of a year into the pandemic and after he is still mocking people for wearing masks, 200,000 have already died and he's still hosting events people have said could be superspeader events.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
You'll be back, soon you'll see You'll remember you belong to me You'll be back, time will tell You'll remember that I served you well Oceans rise, empires fall We have seen each other through it all And when push comes to shove I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
I fear higher than that.
On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.
I could see us reaching 15%
And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
And is trying to repeal the ACA.
I expect him to get dinged on that if the next two debates take place. Not sure they will because I don't think Trump will be well enough before election day to go to events. The contrast between Trump post-covid and the cycle-nut on the other podium is unlikely to be optically sound.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause. But it probably won't.
You'll be back, soon you'll see You'll remember you belong to me You'll be back, time will tell You'll remember that I served you well Oceans rise, empires fall We have seen each other through it all And when push comes to shove I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
I fear higher than that.
On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.
I could see us reaching 15%
And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
At least one PB stalwart is very keen on state violence to be used in the preservation of his particular constitutional preference.
A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Socialised medicine too, at a government funded hospital...
Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.
One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.
The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
New NBC/WSJ poll (post debate but pre Trump COVID) has Biden’s lead with registered voters increasing from 8 to 14 points. It’s on Dave Wasserman’s Twitter.
Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.
One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.
The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
It takes a minimum of 3 days for EVENT to start showing up in polls I believe is the standard thinking.
If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
Good point!
I don't think you would get a third of NI voters backing violence. The Good Friday agreement is extremely popular compared to a return to The Bad Old Days.
The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
Good point!
I don't think you would get a third of NI voters backing violence. The Good Friday agreement is extremely popular compared to a return to The Bad Old Days.
The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause. But it probably won't.
I think that's a slight misrepresentation of the opposition to Obamacare.
I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).
It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).
As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
Good point!
I don't think you would get a third of NI voters backing violence. The Good Friday agreement is extremely popular compared to a return to The Bad Old Days.
The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
That's good news! May it stay that way!
All the people would could really start the violence have multiple* 6 figure jobs depending on them not starting violence.
*Yes, the rules on multiple jobbing were specially forgotten about in NI
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause. But it probably won't.
I think that's a slight misrepresentation of the opposition to Obamacare.
I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).
It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).
As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
The individual mandate has been eliminated.
The current court case is to repeal all of the ACA entirely as unconstitutional (due to the elimination of the mandate)
Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.
One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.
The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
It takes a minimum of 3 days for EVENT to start showing up in polls I believe is the standard thinking.
If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
Doesn't this rather depend on the event? Political anoraks are often surprised by how long it takes for political news to reach people and percolate through their minds.
Arguably, though, this is such a big event for the US that there are relatively few people who are just hearing about it today, or who vaguely heard it mentioned but have been a bit busy to think about it until a lazy Sunday dawns.
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
I was thinking of going to Ll'ane'lli later.
Alternating lately with looking at PB and researching my Carmarthenshire ancestors. My grandfather married a girl from Breconshire but until then everyone on his side seems to have lived in, or moved to Glamorgan's mines from, Carmarthenshire.
say they export to the EU, which probably includes us until Christmas. Thank God we voted to put a stop to that sort of nonsense.
Thanks for the link. That looks like fresh Bitto, which I was enjoying for lunch when I typed my post, having bought a wedge from Esselunga in Bergamo on Monday morning. But Bitto Storico is something else - already aged for 10-15 years.
A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.
Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self.
Lichtman sounded pretty partisan but I agree that any sympathy would be pretty limited, probably confined to those who are sympathetic to him already. He won't be getting much sympathy from the hundreds of thousands of covid victims, their relatives and friends and loved ones. When the natural sentimentality subsides, the hard fact will remain that he bears a large responsibility for his country's failure to address the crisis promptly and sensibly.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause. But it probably won't.
I think that's a slight misrepresentation of the opposition to Obamacare.
I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).
It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).
As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
The individual mandate has been eliminated.
The current court case is to repeal all of the ACA entirely as unconstitutional (due to the elimination of the mandate)
The legal status of the individual mandate is complex as I think it technically still exists but Trump set the penalty for not having health insurance at zero (which Biden would reverse). It's true that the Texas case is, rather oddly, that the ACA is unconstitutional as a whole precisely because Trump set the penalty at zero, and that they'd replace at a state level (so it becomes a federal v state government issue).
A prediction now is that the Texas case will NOT succeed in December even if Amy Coney Barrett is seated. It's just not that strong a case.
What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
I fear higher than that.
On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.
I could see us reaching 15%
And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
At least one PB stalwart is very keen on state violence to be used in the preservation of his particular constitutional preference.
Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
"But back to this polling it isn’t hard to see the extreme people who have hijacked the Black Lives Matter campaign to pursue an undemocratic approach"
I take issue with this statement. BLM movement was always this, what changed was a wider group of people got on board protesting under that banner due to the Floyd incident without really understanding who the BLM organizers were and what they really stood for. Just like XR.
I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
I don't think the majority of Britons are really worried about the Prime Minister or the royal family getting top noch hospital care from the private sector. And If a CEO pays for private health care then OK. For sure there are some snarky types who do make a fuss about this, but what percentage of Britons are really like that? What is expected though is that everybody has the right to good treatment. Also if you pay for private health insurance this is a choice and you still pay for the NHS via taxes.
The expectation that everyone is entitled to good quality medical treatment is not there in the US.
Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
Another Bozo classic, ‘Christmas and beyond’ being utterly devoid of any useful information.
In this case, I honestly think the behavioural insight people are telling him to say this. From the beginning there has been a careful nudge nudge nudge of the time line. Lets get through to summer, lets get through to Christmas, etc.
If he had just come out and said ok folks, I think 2 years looks at the right timeline, I think anti-lockdown sentiment would have been a lot stronger. Instead loads of people said, yeah I can do 3 months, lets flatten the curve etc, then summer and a vaccine in September, happy days.
Now we keep getting primed with lets get through to Christmas, vaccine coming start of next year....
Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
That's because Jonny Bairstow is overseas playing in the IPL.
Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
Things on the Covid front will be more than "bumpy". And then straight after Christmas Shagger will have us crash out of the EEA/CU with no deal. At which point "bumpy" won't cover it.
Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
That's because Jonny Bairstow is overseas playing in the IPL.
The IPL is a different planet? Well, in fairness, no argument from me looking at some of the people who run it.
I could imagine the person manning the account would be more inclined to tweet about the news-worthy bills (i.e. contentious). Either they should do them all, or none at all. Saying that, the idea that the twitter account is the official record of what is going on in Parliament is absurd.
A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.
Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self.
Lichtman sounded pretty partisan but I agree that any sympathy would be pretty limited, probably confined to those who are sympathetic to him already. He won't be getting much sympathy from the hundreds of thousands of covid victims, their relatives and friends and loved ones. When the natural sentimentality subsides, the hard fact will remain that he bears a large responsibility for his country's failure to address the crisis promptly and sensibly.
Yes. It's more likely to cement things than move them. I actually think there is a good chance of a massive result - Trump as low as 150 in the EC - which is why I made 'Biden supremacy' my main bet. What I want now (and asap) is him out of hospital and the markets open again.
Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
ConHome posters comments below this story:
“the contempt with which you treat MPs in parliament, our representatives, and by extension us. Never has one man misled so many so thoroughly and so many times“
“Johnson has morphed into May and it will end the same way”
“People are indeed furious with you, Boris, because the five principles that you have evidently chosen to follow over the last six months are (1) Overreact (2) Exaggerate (3) Be seen to be doing something for the sake of it (4) Cover your arse (5) Save your face”
“ People hate stupidity. Constantly saying 'there is no other way' shows stupidity, when everyone can see that there IS another way: the Sweden model”
“Boris and the government are destroying themselves”
“The Gov is simply failing to display competence since the lockdown ended. That’s the problem”
Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
Just put it down to auto correct.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
I was thinking of going to Ll'ane'lli later.
Alternating lately with looking at PB and researching my Carmarthenshire ancestors. My grandfather married a girl from Breconshire but until then everyone on his side seems to have lived in, or moved to Glamorgan's mines from, Carmarthenshire.
My family were all from Carmarthenshire's Gwendraeth Valley. Also known as the "outside half factory" of course.
Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
ConHome posters comments below this story:
“the contempt with which you treat MPs in parliament, our representatives, and by extension us. Never has one man misled so many so thoroughly and so many times“
“Johnson has morphed into May and it will end the same way”
“People are indeed furious with you, Boris, because the five principles that you have evidently chosen to follow over the last six months are (1) Overreact (2) Exaggerate (3) Be seen to be doing something for the sake of it (4) Cover your arse (5) Save your face”
“ People hate stupidity. Constantly saying 'there is no other way' shows stupidity, when everyone can see that there IS another way: the Sweden model”
“Boris and the government are destroying themselves”
“The Gov is simply failing to display competence since the lockdown ended. That’s the problem”
The Sweden model! If only we had known about it sooner.
Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.
One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.
The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
It takes a minimum of 3 days for EVENT to start showing up in polls I believe is the standard thinking.
If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
Doesn't this rather depend on the event? Political anoraks are often surprised by how long it takes for political news to reach people and percolate through their minds.
Arguably, though, this is such a big event for the US that there are relatively few people who are just hearing about it today, or who vaguely heard it mentioned but have been a bit busy to think about it until a lazy Sunday dawns.
This isn't so much an event as a trailer of two very different possible events, Trump croaks vs Trump recovers. Plus if you were undecided in the first place (and I can't imagine being) you'd want time to think about it.
Comments
Goes to show that written constitutions and laws don't defend democracy if people are prepared to abuse it.
Eternal vigilance is the only way to protect liberty.
Sadly, it's something that's likely to get worse before it gets better, the election being more likely to spark further violence than act as a brake on it.
VAR is a good thing but operated by idiots.
A mob of the MAGA persuasion
Engaged in a State House invasion
Though heavily armed
They left there unharmed
And that's how you know they're Caucasian.
Fortunately, at time of writing the military seems to be prepared to disregard unlawful orders, even if they come from the Commander in Chief, and it's to be hoped that that's a universally held position.
My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.
Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1312232456192323585/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JamesPearceLFC/status/1312736109315665921
On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.
I could see us reaching 15%
https://twitter.com/blevimyers/status/1312511774650843138
You'll be back, soon you'll see
You'll remember you belong to me
You'll be back, time will tell
You'll remember that I served you well
Oceans rise, empires fall
We have seen each other through it all
And when push comes to shove
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
But it does speak to how many people have decided already that there's no real sign of a sympathy move. Bluntly, the "rally to the Commander in Chief, patriots!" versus "daft, mask-dodging old bugger had it coming" tribes were utterly predictable and had effectively formed long before the news broke.
The difference though is that Johnson's illness was early on, plus the government has already changed tack before he fell ill. When he said he was shaking hands was when the science advice Whitty and Vallance were giving was just wash your hands.
Trump's illness has come better part of a year into the pandemic and after he is still mocking people for wearing masks, 200,000 have already died and he's still hosting events people have said could be superspeader events.
But it probably won't.
Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self.
While simultaneously abolishing Obama care.
The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).
It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).
As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
*Yes, the rules on multiple jobbing were specially forgotten about in NI
The current court case is to repeal all of the ACA entirely as unconstitutional (due to the elimination of the mandate)
Arguably, though, this is such a big event for the US that there are relatively few people who are just hearing about it today, or who vaguely heard it mentioned but have been a bit busy to think about it until a lazy Sunday dawns.
https://twitter.com/siansparkles/status/1312692500985937920?s=20
My history lesson starts at 7pm.
I suggest he cuts out the caffeine though and then he wont need the sleeping pills.
https://twitter.com/alexhern/status/1312717870619557889
https://twitter.com/alexhern/status/1312718497252769792
https://twitter.com/alexhern/status/1312720735501254656
A prediction now is that the Texas case will NOT succeed in December even if Amy Coney Barrett is seated. It's just not that strong a case.
Or is it Radiohead.
I forget.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656
Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
I take issue with this statement. BLM movement was always this, what changed was a wider group of people got on board protesting under that banner due to the Floyd incident without really understanding who the BLM organizers were and what they really stood for. Just like XR.
The current situation in education, for example, isn't sustainable.
The expectation that everyone is entitled to good quality medical treatment is not there in the US.
If he had just come out and said ok folks, I think 2 years looks at the right timeline, I think anti-lockdown sentiment would have been a lot stronger. Instead loads of people said, yeah I can do 3 months, lets flatten the curve etc, then summer and a vaccine in September, happy days.
Now we keep getting primed with lets get through to Christmas, vaccine coming start of next year....
This is not a good start.
“the contempt with which you treat MPs in parliament, our representatives, and by extension us. Never has one man misled so many so thoroughly and so many times“
“Johnson has morphed into May and it will end the same way”
“People are indeed furious with you, Boris, because the five principles that you have evidently chosen to follow over the last six months are (1) Overreact (2) Exaggerate (3) Be seen to be doing something for the sake of it (4) Cover your arse (5) Save your face”
“ People hate stupidity. Constantly saying 'there is no other way' shows stupidity, when everyone can see that there IS another way: the Sweden model”
“Boris and the government are destroying themselves”
“The Gov is simply failing to display competence since the lockdown ended. That’s the problem”