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Some frightening polling from America – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,683
edited October 2020 in General
Some frightening polling from America – politicalbetting.com

Holy s**t.Over the course of three years, the number of Americans who say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals has gone up from 8 percent to over 33 percent. pic.twitter.com/JBg3Y83ASK

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,109
    edited October 2020
    First, or not?
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    FPT

    Foxy said:

    Exactly five years since Liverpool sacked Brendan Rodgers.

    How time flies.

    He got it wrong today, but did a great number on Man City.

    West Ham have done the same to us this week.
    Rodgers is a great manager. It is a shame he never won the league in 2014 but he did help build Liverpool up towards when it did.

    Rodgers and Benitez the two best Liverpool managers this century before Klopp.
    Gerard Houllier is a better manager than Rodgers.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Steve Bruce is a rubbish manager.
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    Well written and scary thoughts.

    Goes to show that written constitutions and laws don't defend democracy if people are prepared to abuse it.

    Eternal vigilance is the only way to protect liberty.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Well written and scary thoughts.

    Goes to show that written constitutions and laws don't defend democracy if people are prepared to abuse it.

    Eternal vigilance is the only way to protect liberty.

    Yeah, I'm standing down and standing by. But what would work even better, is a. not elect people like Trump and b. take people's guns away.
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    FPT

    Foxy said:

    Exactly five years since Liverpool sacked Brendan Rodgers.

    How time flies.

    He got it wrong today, but did a great number on Man City.

    West Ham have done the same to us this week.
    Rodgers is a great manager. It is a shame he never won the league in 2014 but he did help build Liverpool up towards when it did.

    Rodgers and Benitez the two best Liverpool managers this century before Klopp.
    Gerard Houllier is a better manager than Rodgers.
    I'd have put Houllier as next best personally. With an honourable mention for my namesake who helped him.
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    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.
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    Its not *that* worrying. That the Americans are mental is priced in surely? That Trump will incite armed maniacs to "monitor" polling stations with AR-15 rifles is priced in surely? this is the county who find it acceptable to protect the rights of lunatics to shoot children in their primary school classroom.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Worrying indeed, but reflective of the extreme polarisation and many instances of actual political violence in recent times.

    Sadly, it's something that's likely to get worse before it gets better, the election being more likely to spark further violence than act as a brake on it.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,113
    Trump has poisoned the well of American democracy.
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    I see it is VARsenal today.

    VAR is a good thing but operated by idiots.
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    A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    I see it is VARsenal today.

    VAR is a good thing but operated by idiots.

    Luiz? His shirt pull did not deny a clear an obvious goal scoring opportunity (which is the only question being asked, irrespective of how dumb Luiz was).
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    tlg86 said:

    I see it is VARsenal today.

    VAR is a good thing but operated by idiots.

    Luiz? His shirt pull did not deny a clear an obvious goal scoring opportunity (which is the only question being asked, irrespective of how dumb Luiz was).
    My friend remembers a similar situation involving his beloved Blades against Villa earlier on this season that did lead to a red card.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Well written and scary thoughts.

    Goes to show that written constitutions and laws don't defend democracy if people are prepared to abuse it.

    Eternal vigilance is the only way to protect liberty.

    You and I often disagree, but here we do. Abusing 'rights and freedoms' leads to anarchy, which we appear to be frighteningly close to in the USA. The fact that Trump is not prepared to say 'of course' when asked if he'd accept the election result, even if qualified by 'if the Supreme Court accepts it" suggests that mid November in that country could see an outbreak of lawlessness.
    Fortunately, at time of writing the military seems to be prepared to disregard unlawful orders, even if they come from the Commander in Chief, and it's to be hoped that that's a universally held position.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,196

    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.

    Just put it down to auto correct.

    My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.

    Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,282
    Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,282
    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.

    Just put it down to auto correct.

    My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.

    Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
    Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
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    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.

    Just put it down to auto correct.

    My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.

    Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
    Indeed, not using the Oxford comma is also a capital offence.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,196

    A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.

    I won't believe it until I see the albeit one thousand times smaller than Trump's inauguration crowd, cheering for a victorious sleepy Joe on January 20th.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    It certainly is frightening and its not confined to one side of the political debate either.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,262
    edited October 2020
    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    I fear higher than that.

    On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.

    I could see us reaching 15%
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    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    I'd like to think so. But I'm still haunted by the comments BTL on a Telegraph column Dan Hodges wrote a few years back, when he said that the military would be totally unjustified in launching a coup should Jeremy Corbyn be elected PM.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    Trump:

    You'll be back, soon you'll see
    You'll remember you belong to me
    You'll be back, time will tell
    You'll remember that I served you well
    Oceans rise, empires fall
    We have seen each other through it all
    And when push comes to shove
    I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,124
    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
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    For comparison, Ipsos had been fairly good for Biden pre-Trump diagnosis (9% lead) so this suggests stability within MOE rather than helping Biden. It's also one poll.

    But it does speak to how many people have decided already that there's no real sign of a sympathy move. Bluntly, the "rally to the Commander in Chief, patriots!" versus "daft, mask-dodging old bugger had it coming" tribes were utterly predictable and had effectively formed long before the news broke.
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    Much has been made comparing Trump's illness to Johnson's. Many mocked Johnson for having said he was shaking hands of people with COVID a month before he became ill.

    The difference though is that Johnson's illness was early on, plus the government has already changed tack before he fell ill. When he said he was shaking hands was when the science advice Whitty and Vallance were giving was just wash your hands.

    Trump's illness has come better part of a year into the pandemic and after he is still mocking people for wearing masks, 200,000 have already died and he's still hosting events people have said could be superspeader events.
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    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,259
    edited October 2020
    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Barnesian said:

    Trump:

    You'll be back, soon you'll see
    You'll remember you belong to me
    You'll be back, time will tell
    You'll remember that I served you well
    Oceans rise, empires fall
    We have seen each other through it all
    And when push comes to shove
    I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

    You been on the sherry, Barnesian?
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    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    I fear higher than that.

    On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.

    I could see us reaching 15%
    And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    And is trying to repeal the ACA.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989

    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
    Good point!
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,282
    Alistair said:

    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    And is trying to repeal the ACA.
    I expect him to get dinged on that if the next two debates take place. Not sure they will because I don't think Trump will be well enough before election day to go to events. The contrast between Trump post-covid and the cycle-nut on the other podium is unlikely to be optically sound.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,966

    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
    Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause.
    But it probably won't.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    Barnesian said:

    Trump:

    You'll be back, soon you'll see
    You'll remember you belong to me
    You'll be back, time will tell
    You'll remember that I served you well
    Oceans rise, empires fall
    We have seen each other through it all
    And when push comes to shove
    I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

    You been on the sherry, Barnesian?
    https://youtu.be/1NOjkmkanrc?t=2
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    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    I fear higher than that.

    On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.

    I could see us reaching 15%
    And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
    At least one PB stalwart is very keen on state violence to be used in the preservation of his particular constitutional preference.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    edited October 2020

    A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.

    Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.

    Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self. :smile:
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,637
    edited October 2020
    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Socialised medicine too, at a government funded hospital...

    While simultaneously abolishing Obama care.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    OnboardG1 said:

    Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.

    One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.

    The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited October 2020
    New NBC/WSJ poll (post debate but pre Trump COVID) has Biden’s lead with registered voters increasing from 8 to 14 points. It’s on Dave Wasserman’s Twitter.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    OnboardG1 said:

    Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.

    One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.

    The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
    It takes a minimum of 3 days for EVENT to start showing up in polls I believe is the standard thinking.

    If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
    Good point!
    I don't think you would get a third of NI voters backing violence. The Good Friday agreement is extremely popular compared to a return to The Bad Old Days.

    The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    Dr Foxy won't be happy; West Ham 3 Leicester 0.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
    Good point!
    I don't think you would get a third of NI voters backing violence. The Good Friday agreement is extremely popular compared to a return to The Bad Old Days.

    The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
    That's good news! May it stay that way!
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,196

    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.

    Just put it down to auto correct.

    My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.

    Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
    Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
    I was thinking of going to Ll'ane'lli later.
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    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
    Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause.
    But it probably won't.
    I think that's a slight misrepresentation of the opposition to Obamacare.

    I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).

    It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).

    As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    By Brits do you include or exclude NI?
    Good point!
    I don't think you would get a third of NI voters backing violence. The Good Friday agreement is extremely popular compared to a return to The Bad Old Days.

    The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, the Really Real IRA, the Keeping It Real IRA, and Loyalists For Drug Dealing etc have guns, money and very few supporters.
    That's good news! May it stay that way!
    All the people would could really start the violence have multiple* 6 figure jobs depending on them not starting violence.

    *Yes, the rules on multiple jobbing were specially forgotten about in NI
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
    Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause.
    But it probably won't.
    I think that's a slight misrepresentation of the opposition to Obamacare.

    I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).

    It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).

    As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
    The individual mandate has been eliminated.

    The current court case is to repeal all of the ACA entirely as unconstitutional (due to the elimination of the mandate)
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,259
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.

    One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.

    The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
    It takes a minimum of 3 days for EVENT to start showing up in polls I believe is the standard thinking.

    If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
    Doesn't this rather depend on the event? Political anoraks are often surprised by how long it takes for political news to reach people and percolate through their minds.

    Arguably, though, this is such a big event for the US that there are relatively few people who are just hearing about it today, or who vaguely heard it mentioned but have been a bit busy to think about it until a lazy Sunday dawns.
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    Was pretty keen on Tom Hollander, even keener now.

    https://twitter.com/siansparkles/status/1312692500985937920?s=20
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.

    Just put it down to auto correct.

    My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.

    Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
    Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
    I was thinking of going to Ll'ane'lli later.
    Alternating lately with looking at PB and researching my Carmarthenshire ancestors. My grandfather married a girl from Breconshire but until then everyone on his side seems to have lived in, or moved to Glamorgan's mines from, Carmarthenshire.
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    Hurrah, the cricket starts at 3.15 in the t20.
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    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,225
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    FPT:
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Left field question: does anyone know if you can get Bitto Storico in the UK?

    https://www.foodexplore.com/en/bitto-dop-cheese-price.html

    say they export to the EU, which probably includes us until Christmas. Thank God we voted to put a stop to that sort of nonsense.
    Thanks for the link. That looks like fresh Bitto, which I was enjoying for lunch when I typed my post, having bought a wedge from Esselunga in Bergamo on Monday morning. But Bitto Storico is something else - already aged for 10-15 years.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Hurrah, the cricket starts at 3.15 in the t20.

    Hurrah indeed! However t11 actually. and t16 in the Final. Provided it doesn't rain again.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    Well I know about Crassus now. I hope this is some new material.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,319
    edited October 2020
    kinabalu said:

    A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.

    Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.

    Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self. :smile:
    Lichtman sounded pretty partisan but I agree that any sympathy would be pretty limited, probably confined to those who are sympathetic to him already. He won't be getting much sympathy from the hundreds of thousands of covid victims, their relatives and friends and loved ones. When the natural sentimentality subsides, the hard fact will remain that he bears a large responsibility for his country's failure to address the crisis promptly and sensibly.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,225

    Was pretty keen on Tom Hollander, even keener now.

    https://twitter.com/siansparkles/status/1312692500985937920?s=20

    :lol: Top man.

    I suggest he cuts out the caffeine though and then he wont need the sleeping pills.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    What are you learning about?
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    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
    Yes. However, having an army of lawyers out to overturn ACA, and prevent tens of millions having access to even the most basic treatment at the same time ought to give pause.
    But it probably won't.
    I think that's a slight misrepresentation of the opposition to Obamacare.

    I obviously don't share this view, but do understand where people are coming from. Firstly, there is an in principle opposition to the individual mandate - the idea people should not be forced to buy a product even if it's a good product to have. Secondly, there is a fear of it being the thin end of the wedge for Government provision of healthcare - an American NHS. Now that argument puts our backs up in the UK... but it is true that our care is rationed (albeit for quite proper reasons) and we have less choice over treatments (ditto).

    It is also entirely possible to oppose the individual mandate but support assistance in obtaining health insurance for the less well off (Medicaid etc).

    As I say, I don't agree with those arguments, but it really isn't as stark and obvious as you say.
    The individual mandate has been eliminated.

    The current court case is to repeal all of the ACA entirely as unconstitutional (due to the elimination of the mandate)
    The legal status of the individual mandate is complex as I think it technically still exists but Trump set the penalty for not having health insurance at zero (which Biden would reverse). It's true that the Texas case is, rather oddly, that the ACA is unconstitutional as a whole precisely because Trump set the penalty at zero, and that they'd replace at a state level (so it becomes a federal v state government issue).

    A prediction now is that the Texas case will NOT succeed in December even if Amy Coney Barrett is seated. It's just not that strong a case.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited October 2020
    NBC/WSJ are ranked "A-" on 538. Biden now wins in 81% of their simulations.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,637

    Dr Foxy won't be happy; West Ham 3 Leicester 0.

    Philosophical. Being a Leicester fan often involves disappointment, apart from one magical season to keep hope alive.
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    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    Well I know about Crassus now. I hope this is some new material.
    If features a brothel.
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    ydoethur said:

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    What are you learning about?
    Git, I'm educating PBers once more.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,225

    Barnesian said:

    What percentage of Brits would say that they feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals? Less than 5% I guess.

    I fear higher than that.

    On one extreme Farage has sometimes used the rhetoric of violence. On the other you will find many justify violence as a response to violence from the other side.

    I could see us reaching 15%
    And a we saw with Brendan, when Brexit was seen to be threatened the usual democratic niceties were no longer applicable.
    At least one PB stalwart is very keen on state violence to be used in the preservation of his particular constitutional preference.
    We will go to the barricades to stop pineapple.

    Or is it Radiohead.

    I forget.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2020
    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....

    Another Bozo classic, ‘Christmas and beyond’ being utterly devoid of any useful information.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    ydoethur said:

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    What are you learning about?
    Git, I'm educating PBers once more.
    Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
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    "But back to this polling it isn’t hard to see the extreme people who have hijacked the Black Lives Matter campaign to pursue an undemocratic approach"

    I take issue with this statement. BLM movement was always this, what changed was a wider group of people got on board protesting under that banner due to the Floyd incident without really understanding who the BLM organizers were and what they really stood for. Just like XR.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....

    No. It will get worse. One way or another.

    The current situation in education, for example, isn't sustainable.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897

    Chris said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I didn't realise that was post COVID. Not great news for his campaign really.
    One has to wonder whether it's a brilliant look for one man to be getting such immense personalised medical care and attention when so many people think he has brought the infection on himself.
    Americans are a lot more relaxed about inequalities in healthcare provision than we are. Yes, Presidents get better care than paupers, and CEOs get better care than cleaners. That's not the issue in the US that it is in the UK... except at the extremes of vulnerable people being uncovered entirely for certain things.
    I don't think the majority of Britons are really worried about the Prime Minister or the royal family getting top noch hospital care from the private sector. And If a CEO pays for private health care then OK. For sure there are some snarky types who do make a fuss about this, but what percentage of Britons are really like that? What is expected though is that everybody has the right to good treatment. Also if you pay for private health insurance this is a choice and you still pay for the NHS via taxes.

    The expectation that everyone is entitled to good quality medical treatment is not there in the US.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....

    Another Bozo classic, ‘Christmas and beyond’ being utterly devoid of any useful information.
    In this case, I honestly think the behavioural insight people are telling him to say this. From the beginning there has been a careful nudge nudge nudge of the time line. Lets get through to summer, lets get through to Christmas, etc.

    If he had just come out and said ok folks, I think 2 years looks at the right timeline, I think anti-lockdown sentiment would have been a lot stronger. Instead loads of people said, yeah I can do 3 months, lets flatten the curve etc, then summer and a vaccine in September, happy days.

    Now we keep getting primed with lets get through to Christmas, vaccine coming start of next year....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    Well I know about Crassus now. I hope this is some new material.
    If features a brothel.
    The Bunny Ranch in Nevada? Asking for a friend..
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    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    What are you learning about?
    Git, I'm educating PBers once more.
    Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
    That's because Jonny Bairstow is overseas playing in the IPL.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,637

    ydoethur said:

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    What are you learning about?
    Git, I'm educating PBers once more.
    Perhaps this is the mask for you?


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    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....

    Things on the Covid front will be more than "bumpy". And then straight after Christmas Shagger will have us crash out of the EEA/CU with no deal. At which point "bumpy" won't cover it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Gloucestershire couldn't hit a beachball with a fir tree right now.

    This is not a good start.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    An FYI.

    My history lesson starts at 7pm.

    What are you learning about?
    Git, I'm educating PBers once more.
    Talking of education, the two best wicketkeeper batsmen in England go head to head in this semi - Foakes of Surrey, who is probably the best keeper in the world, and Bracey of Gloucestershire, who looks a very exciting prospect.
    That's because Jonny Bairstow is overseas playing in the IPL.
    The IPL is a different planet? Well, in fairness, no argument from me looking at some of the people who run it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    I could imagine the person manning the account would be more inclined to tweet about the news-worthy bills (i.e. contentious). Either they should do them all, or none at all. Saying that, the idea that the twitter account is the official record of what is going on in Parliament is absurd.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    kinabalu said:

    A slight nerve settler for Trump Toasters on R4 at lunchtime from Allan Lichtman, the prof who predicted (mostly) the POTUS winners from 1984, including Trump in 2016 (though he'd also said he'd win the popular vote). He predicted Biden as Dem candidate and for him to win a couple of months ago, and is just as or more bullish now. He's certain Trump's Covid doesn't change the fundamentals based on his 13 Keys. Worth a listen, even if it sounds a touch voodoo-ey to me.

    Yes, thanks. I've been wibbling on recently about how he might use getting sick to grab all the spotlight and change the mood but I have decided to stop it - because it's tosh - and return to my previous supreme and well-founded confidence. Intuition, common sense, the data, they all say the same thing. Donald Trump is unelectable for a 2nd term. He will lose on 3/11 and it won't be close.

    Ah, that feels much better. Back to my old self. :smile:
    Lichtman sounded pretty partisan but I agree that any sympathy would be pretty limited, probably confined to those who are sympathetic to him already. He won't be getting much sympathy from the hundreds of thousands of covid victims, their relatives and friends and loved ones. When the natural sentimentality subsides, the hard fact will remain that he bears a large responsibility for his country's failure to address the crisis promptly and sensibly.
    Yes. It's more likely to cement things than move them. I actually think there is a good chance of a massive result - Trump as low as 150 in the EC - which is why I made 'Biden supremacy' my main bet. What I want now (and asap) is him out of hospital and the markets open again.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....

    ConHome posters comments below this story:

    “the contempt with which you treat MPs in parliament, our representatives, and by extension us. Never has one man misled so many so thoroughly and so many times“

    “Johnson has morphed into May and it will end the same way”

    “People are indeed furious with you, Boris, because the five principles that you have evidently chosen to follow over the last six months are (1) Overreact (2) Exaggerate (3) Be seen to be doing something for the sake of it (4) Cover your arse (5) Save your face”

    “ People hate stupidity. Constantly saying 'there is no other way' shows stupidity, when everyone can see that there IS another way: the Sweden model”

    “Boris and the government are destroying themselves”

    “The Gov is simply failing to display competence since the lockdown ended. That’s the problem”
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    As we have discussed on here the Republicans may currently not have enough votes for Barretts nomination: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/supreme-court-trump-covid/616608/
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,196

    Goddamnit, why do I only spot my typos after I publish my pieces.

    Just put it down to auto correct.

    My chinese phone adds random apostrophes to anything ending in an s or a double l. Well becomes we'll and The Screaming Eagles becomes The Screaming Eagle's.

    Misuse of the apostrophe as we all know is one of those capital offence error's. I mean errors.
    Good job you don't write much in Welsh, then!
    I was thinking of going to Ll'ane'lli later.
    Alternating lately with looking at PB and researching my Carmarthenshire ancestors. My grandfather married a girl from Breconshire but until then everyone on his side seems to have lived in, or moved to Glamorgan's mines from, Carmarthenshire.
    My family were all from Carmarthenshire's Gwendraeth Valley. Also known as the "outside half factory" of course.
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    Now with the winter drawing in, limited opportunity to exercise outside, I am going to be one of those twats who buys a Peleton aren't I....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:

    Things 'bumpy to Christmas and beyond' - PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54407656

    Its the current situation until next summer isn't it....

    ConHome posters comments below this story:

    “the contempt with which you treat MPs in parliament, our representatives, and by extension us. Never has one man misled so many so thoroughly and so many times“

    “Johnson has morphed into May and it will end the same way”

    “People are indeed furious with you, Boris, because the five principles that you have evidently chosen to follow over the last six months are (1) Overreact (2) Exaggerate (3) Be seen to be doing something for the sake of it (4) Cover your arse (5) Save your face”

    “ People hate stupidity. Constantly saying 'there is no other way' shows stupidity, when everyone can see that there IS another way: the Sweden model”

    “Boris and the government are destroying themselves”

    “The Gov is simply failing to display competence since the lockdown ended. That’s the problem”
    The Sweden model! If only we had known about it sooner.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Alistair said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Biden up 10 and 14 according to Ipsos and WSJ. In the field pre-covid diagnosis so probably more reflective of the debate. Not hugely convinced that the sheer chaos of his illness and the WH failure to control the spread of the thing is going to shift that.

    One thing that I have seen time and again - a major political incident happens. Immediate polling doesn't show a change. Over the next week or so, the polls move.

    The assumption by political anoraks is that news = immediate poll movement.
    It takes a minimum of 3 days for EVENT to start showing up in polls I believe is the standard thinking.

    If EVENT is transitory then the effect fades after 7.
    Doesn't this rather depend on the event? Political anoraks are often surprised by how long it takes for political news to reach people and percolate through their minds.

    Arguably, though, this is such a big event for the US that there are relatively few people who are just hearing about it today, or who vaguely heard it mentioned but have been a bit busy to think about it until a lazy Sunday dawns.
    This isn't so much an event as a trailer of two very different possible events, Trump croaks vs Trump recovers. Plus if you were undecided in the first place (and I can't imagine being) you'd want time to think about it.
This discussion has been closed.