If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
It's mind blowing to me that 44% could "approve" of Donald Trump.
I mean even those that will hold their nose and vote for him (for whatever reason) surely can't actually "approve" of him!
Whilst I would not vote for him I think that attitude is through looking at it through a filtered non american liberal media which we all are if not actually in the USA. Personally I dont mind Trumps' style (its quite a change to nearly all other politicians ) its is negative policies on things like his stupid "wall" with Mexico and tariff imposing world trade
If I'm crossing the road I stop, look both directions first and only cross when its safe to do so. Common sense, not fear.
I don't just stand their as a quivering wreck thinking I could be killed if I cross the road and get hit and be too terrified to move, nor do I simply step onto the road into the path of an oncoming bus because I didn't bother to look first.
It means ‘Act like a grown up’ and is a plea for people to be responsible and use their own wisdom and judgement rather than a child like need for adult guidance from state authority figures
"Fearless but common sense" is good messaging. Exactly what is required. Trouble is the majority are fearful and lack common sense.
Government is to blame for some of this. Stoking up too much fear - especially early on. And the appalling selection and presentation of statistics.
Trump seemed somewhat humbled in that video to me. On the assumption he’s back on his feet in time for the last debate, it will be fascinating to see to what extent the experience has changed him / his approach.
In the right setting, he’s clearly been a man able to exhibit warmth and charm over the years, though these qualities have been almost totally lacking in his public persona since he entered politics.
Base case from here for me is Biden wins handily, Trump offers heartfelt congratulations and passes over the baton without any whisper of a dispute. Though I don’t think we can rule out a 2-4% swing from this that nudges him over the line, if he makes it to one more debate.
The ghouls hoping he succumbs should bear in mind that the c.10% of his profile that have died once infected would in most cases have had to wait a relatively long time before being tested or receiving any medical intervention at all. He’s had prompt oxygen and antibody treatment and a team of 9 doctors exclusively dedicated to his care (excluding the osteopath). He has also had the fortune to contract it in September and not March, meaning he gets to benefit from the perhaps halving in case fatality ratios due to simple things like prone position sleeping and dexamethasone.
Which is all good news. Because the sore his passing would open in American society might never heal.
Lovely little metaphor, but what does it mean? 40 odd PsOTUS have died, sorry, "passed" to date, most of them rather better at it in most views, than this one. Did their deaths open these unhealing sores, in which case it's just another one to add to the count, or is the hypothetical Trumpentod unique?
I may be mistaken but I don’t think the historical records show millions of ordinary Americans enthusiastically and publicly celebrating the passing of a sitting POTUS, which is what we would surely see in the case of Trump. I’m also unaware of a sitting POTUS giving at best tacit (and in truth probably worse) encouragement to armed vigilantes. Combined with online conspiracy theorising about fake medical diagnosis on the one hand and deliberately infected microphones on the other.
If you can’t see that Trump dying in office from covid is a potential tinderbox moment I’m not sure I can help. The US Culture War has for now been a metaphoric description but with each escalation in extremity and bedding down of division it increases the risk of it boiling over at some point in the coming decades.
Yes, well, calm down. What you suggest is not impossible, but it is no more likely than Trump recovering, losing and going call-out-the-military, I'm-still-CinC apeshit. Chill pill time.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
Ocado runs at a profit doesn't it?
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
TSE doesn't have all the secret polls so it must be something deep in the detail of a Mori poll like "85% of ginger-haired voters want to throw the non-ginger voters down a well, and 90% of non-ginger-haired voters want to throw the ginger voters down a well"
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
Ocado runs at a profit doesn't it?
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
The Tesco share price is down since covid-19 but not so much as more discretionary spend industries. i think sales are overall fine (includes online) but extra costs for covid-19 and staff to police them means margins not the same. Tesco will survive but th elikes of cineworld , waterstones etc will not unless we ditch the useless mask policy
Sunak is presumably not that bothered on the grounds that the the country's largest cinema and bookshop chains are no longer "viable" businesses and can be left to go to the wall.
Decisions like those of Cineworld follow on from his decision to offer minimum wage support post October and no further sector specific support despite the fact that Covid disproportionately impacts on some businesses whilst others suffer no adverse effects. Decisions will also be taken from a longer term perspective, and it doesn't help to see a continued and incomprehensible reluctance to avoid shifting business taxation away from business rates on premises and towards online sales, in order to create a level playing field. What was once the party of shopkeepers has become the party of online retailers.
It's mind blowing to me that 44% could "approve" of Donald Trump.
I mean even those that will hold their nose and vote for him (for whatever reason) surely can't actually "approve" of him!
The Southern Baptist Convention exists because the Southern Baptists thought Slavery was totally good and fine. A large segment of America really, really approves of the Trumpster.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
The Tesco share price is down since covid-19 but not so much as more discretionary spend industries. i think sales are overall fine (includes online) but extra costs for covid-19 and staff to police them means margins not the same. Tesco will survive but th elikes of cineworld , waterstones etc will not unless we ditch the useless mask policy
Sunak is presumably not that bothered on the grounds that the the country's largest cinema and bookshop chains are no longer "viable" businesses and can be left to go to the wall.
Decisions like those of Cineworld follow on from his decision to offer minimum wage support post October and no further sector specific support despite the fact that Covid disproportionately impacts on some businesses whilst others suffer no adverse effects. Decisions will also be taken from a longer term perspective, and it doesn't help to see a continued and incomprehensible reluctance to avoid shifting business taxation away from business rates on premises and towards online sales, in order to create a level playing field. What was once the party of shopkeepers has become the party of online retailers.
Yes and that will lead to a far more insular ,miserable looking nation in the future - covid or no covid.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
Agreed - and whichever way you look at the 10pm curfew, effective or ineffective, that is true.
Spare a though though for the events industry, which as furlough ends is simply being wiped out.
If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
The worrying polling will be published at 2pm and the history lesson at 7pm.
If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
The worrying polling will be published at 2pm and the history lesson at 7pm.
Good article Robert. At the risk of getting more brickbats, I’ll give a few other pointers that might suggest the consensus is wrong re Trump and / or why the Democrats might not be doing so well:
1. Closing gap in registration numbers in swing states. I have posted this link before but it is worth checking out. I’m on a mobile so difficult to go back and forth typing in the numbers but in all 4 of the 6 swing states Trump won last time and which release voter registration trends by party (FL, PA, AZ and NC), the GOP has closed the registration gap since the last election with the Democrats. Article https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1241674
2. Hispanic voters. We had a big debate on here a day or two ago about why Black voters would go with the GOP. What is probably more of an issue for the Democrats is that there have been consistent signs in the polling that their lead over the GOP has been shrinking. That’s important in states like FL and AZ but also in NV where the tone of language is suggesting the race is tightening (and possibly even CO at a push).
One big mistake the Democrats - and it’s a classic middle class white liberal one - is to lump Black people and Hispanics in as a one big “People of Colour” family so that Hispanics should be naturally on the side of BLM. That is far from the case and the vibes coming out of Hispanic voters is they feel the Democrats have ignored their concerns.
3. Change in the ground game. It’s a bit linked to 1 but the GOP has been continuing to go door to door to sign up voters whilst the Dems have focused on a virtual campaign. Probably the key reason why Obama won in 2012 was the strength of the GOTV operation and that works best when you can do physical canvassing. There had been disquiet for a while amongst some Democrats over the virtual approach and there is a switch to physical door knocking (interesting NV and NH are two of the first states), the question is whether is too late;
4. Voter enthusiasm: Trump rallies pull in crowds who are prepared to queue, Biden speeches don’t. It’s not a great way to measure but it can actually be a decent way of seeing how fired up people are.
If Biden does lose, the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is assuming it’s all down to “unfair” factors such as Trump getting a sympathy vote etc etc. There have been enough warning signals elsewhere.
This is starting to remind me a lot of some of the posts during the 2019GE. Throughout the polling indicated a comfortable Tory win, but right to the end people were posting “clever” explanations of why that wouldn’t be the case.
No 2019 poll had the Tory lead falling to just 3% as IBID TIPP had Biden's lead falling to last week and Corbyn lost even in 2017, Trump won in 2016
IBD/TIPP Had Trump winning the popular vote by 2% in 2016
Or to put it another way they had a 7 point miss on the Clinton vote.
IBID/TIPP's final 2016 tracking poll was Clinton +1%
If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
TSE doesn't have all the secret polls so it must be something deep in the detail of a Mori poll like "85% of ginger-haired voters want to throw the non-ginger voters down a well, and 90% of non-ginger-haired voters want to throw the ginger voters down a well"
Are you sure your first statement is factually correct? I for one will be disappointed if it is true!
I see cineworld are closing all their cinemas forthwith . Feel sorry for an important mass and cheap entertainment industry but who wants to pay a tenner to wear a facemask for 2 hours?
Expect long browse shops like bookshops to go next .
I am on leave tomorrow so going to see Tenet in the afternoon plus facemasks.
I have also been to bookshops plus facemask and plenty there
One big mistake the Democrats - and it’s a classic middle class white liberal one - is to lump Black people and Hispanics in as a one big “People of Colour” family so that Hispanics should be naturally on the side of BLM. That is far from the case and the vibes coming out of Hispanic voters is they feel the Democrats have ignored their concerns.
Biden definitely isn't making that mistake, the inelegant way he made the point that black voters are fairly dependable electoral block but Hispanics are quite diverse voting-wise is *his main gaffe of the campaign*...
For Trump to win he needs to win FL and all of PA, MI and WI. FL certainly seems possible but he is underwater in the other three - I can really only see him winning through “shenanigans” if there is a close result.
Biden has led Trump in head to head polling since 2017 - we are talking of a polling error many times worse than 2016 for Trump to win. And even if the polls are wrong, it’s possible of course that they could be wrong in Biden’s direction.
No, Trump needs to win FL and only 1 of PA, MI and WI, it is Biden who needs to win all 3 of the latter, not Trump
That's true although at the moment it only about even money on Biden taking all four. Gonna be difficult interpreting the polls though until the situation with Trump's health clarifies, and of course we won't be helped by the customary stream of lies coming out of the White House.
I suspect that for the next couple of weeks, Hyufd, even your guess will be as good as anybody's.
Grayson Perry going to Wisconsin on C4 on Wednesday night to report on the election in the pivotal swing state
3. Change in the ground game. It’s a bit linked to 1 but the GOP has been continuing to go door to door to sign up voters whilst the Dems have focused on a virtual campaign. Probably the key reason why Obama won in 2012 was the strength of the GOTV operation and that works best when you can do physical canvassing. There had been disquiet for a while amongst some Democrats over the virtual approach and there is a switch to physical door knocking (interesting NV and NH are two of the first states), the question is whether is too late;
Definitely agree with this, combined with disqualification rates for postal votes. Both of them could easily go either way - ie online contacts may turn out to have been more efficient, and postal votes may gain more from turnout than they lose in missing signatures and envelope fails - but if we imagine we're looking and thinking, "OK, how did this happen", this is a strong suspect.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
The Tesco share price is down since covid-19 but not so much as more discretionary spend industries. i think sales are overall fine (includes online) but extra costs for covid-19 and staff to police them means margins not the same. Tesco will survive but th elikes of cineworld , waterstones etc will not unless we ditch the useless mask policy
Sunak is presumably not that bothered on the grounds that the the country's largest cinema and bookshop chains are no longer "viable" businesses and can be left to go to the wall.
Decisions like those of Cineworld follow on from his decision to offer minimum wage support post October and no further sector specific support despite the fact that Covid disproportionately impacts on some businesses whilst others suffer no adverse effects. Decisions will also be taken from a longer term perspective, and it doesn't help to see a continued and incomprehensible reluctance to avoid shifting business taxation away from business rates on premises and towards online sales, in order to create a level playing field. What was once the party of shopkeepers has become the party of online retailers.
Yes and that will lead to a far more insular ,miserable looking nation in the future - covid or no covid.
If the State orders the shut down of businesses like events then it has to pay their basics e.g. wages until it allows them to reopen.
I've no idea what Sunak is playing at. He was doing well in the first phase of covid.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The question surely is whether, when this is all over, life will return to what it was before or whether it will be different. Are we going to be like rabbits after myxomatosis who, as I understand it, largely gave up living in deep underground colonies and find different ways of enjoying ourselves. Ot are we going to behave as football and cricket did after WWII and simply recreate, albeit temporarily as it transpired, the arrangements which existed before the conflict.
I think there's a false debate between whether we should lift restrictions to save the economy, or tighten restrictions to save lives.
The real question is why the government have so comprehensively bungled test, trace and isolate, and what needs to be done to fix it?
The testing isn't fast enough and not enough people are isolating. What practical steps improve that?
Have the outsourcing companies been a help or a hindrance? Would continuous incremental improvement be easier if NHS capacity was expanded? How to move government communication on from the minutiae of restrictions to the essential importance of isolation? Do we need isolation facilities? Should payments for isolation be greater? A general improvement in sick pay? What about government food deliveries for those isolating (which would combine checking up that they're isolating at the same time)? Should we be using GPs to do screening for Covid testing to help ensure the capacity is used most effectively?
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
Last year, Johnson stormed to victory by attracting both Brexit-backing voters in former Labour heartlands and culturally different voters, including many remainers, who were not only horrified at the idea of Prime Minister Corbyn but worried that Labour would bankrupt the country. With Brexit all but done, Corbyn consigned to history and austerity all but repudiated by the Tories themselves, that will be a much harder trick to pull off next time.
The poll is a really good read, with something to reflect on for all sides. Key points IMO:
* Labour is now 6 points ahead on a forced choice question of "Labour with Starmer or Conservatives with Johnson". * The public broadly supports the virus restrictions or feels they should be stronger, but are annoyed by the unclear and inconsistent messaging. They think Labour would have done a bit better, but are resistant to too much carping. * Starmer is going down well outside the party, with LibDems especially impressed but Lab-Con switchers also somewhat open to him. He's doing OK with Labour supporters but not blown away. * Anneliese Dodds is not making an impact on any group so far. * Lab-Con switchers are pretty close to Tories overall - they are harder to persuade than the general public (people like to justify a difficult switch to themselves, I think) * The LibDems are adrift. Half of their voters plan to vote Labour next time. Few people much rate Davey. Nor are the Greens really getting anywhere, unlike Germany. I think Labour should be able to get the vast majority of anti-Con votes in Con-Lab marginals if this picture persists.
It seems Starmer has made an impact but not with Lab-Con switchers, 48% of them still prefer Boris to 20% for Starmer compared to voters overall preferring Starmer to Boris 37% to 30%.
Starmer leads however with Labour Remain voters by 84% to 2%, Labour Leave voters by 61% to 10% and LDs by 67% to 7%.
Notably Lab-Con switchers are most pro No Deal or hard Brexit, 48% of them say the most important thing 'is to make sure that having left the EU we don't end up giving it a say over our laws and regulations or our trade with non-EU countries' compared to 30% of voters overall and they are also more likely to say that than Conservative Remainers, only 36% of whom say that is the most important thing. 42% of voters overall say the most important thing is to get a Deal with the EU.
64% of Conservative Leave voters say that so it looks like Starmer will have more luck appealing to Conservative Remainers if No Deal than Lab-Con switchers in 2019 or Conservative Leave voters if No Deal. The LDs would also hope to appeal to Tory Remainers in their target seats in London and the South if No Deal
Apologies if this has already been discussed but with the vote on SCOTUS split 51/49 (2 Republicans voting with Democrats) and 3 Republicans down with C19 isn't this all up in the air at the moment? What is the state of the Judicial Committee re C19 currently? Can Senators vote remotely? Even if these ones are better by the time of the vote, will there be others? All seems a bit wobbly at present.
I am sure that Dura Ace will provide examples of people acting fearlessly but with common sense. Must be frequent in military situations!
Are you suggesting you're incapable of using common sense if you're not acting terrified?
That's a bit convoluted ....... too many negatives,............. but I think the answer is one is unlikely to use common sense if terrified. And equally unlikely to act in a common-sense way if acting in a reckless fashion!
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
Ocado runs at a profit doesn't it?
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
Does it? Ocado declares profit only at EBITDA level so before the heavy depreciation on its high-tech operation. And besides which - who cares? You are comparing a technology company to retail. Ocado is not a retailer. It has no shops.
Can you provide me your data for Aldi and Lidl? Having been the two power-houses of the industry with not only the fastest sales expansion but the lowest cost base would be interesting to see the data you have based that comment on.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
Far more likely that one of the Trump kids runs for the nomination in 2024. Probably Ivanka, as the rest of the family may well be in jail.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
Agreed - and whichever way you look at the 10pm curfew, effective or ineffective, that is true.
Spare a though though for the events industry, which as furlough ends is simply being wiped out.
I will - events, theatre, music, hospitality, etc - all of them are being crucified by this government on the grounds that they are not viable when a large part of that “unviability” is a direct result of the government’s own actions.
It is utterly dishonest of a government which at the same time wants to be free to give state aid to some sectors, basically techie friends of Dominic.
Another version of the one rule for us, one rule for them theme which permeates everything this government does.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
One big mistake the Democrats - and it’s a classic middle class white liberal one - is to lump Black people and Hispanics in as a one big “People of Colour” family so that Hispanics should be naturally on the side of BLM. That is far from the case and the vibes coming out of Hispanic voters is they feel the Democrats have ignored their concerns.
Biden definitely isn't making that mistake, the inelegant way he made the point that black voters are fairly dependable electoral block but Hispanics are quite diverse voting-wise is *his main gaffe of the campaign*...
I always thought it was unfair how the media jumped on Biden because the point he made was actually a valid one, just not that well articulated (and certainly much less of a gaffe than his “you ain’t black” comment). However, there are plenty of signs the Hispanic community feel this way:
I wrote a thread on here a while back saying why Biden should have chosen Lujan Grisham as his running mate in order to secure the Hispanic vote. I still think he should have done and it would have made me reconsider thinking Trump will win. But he didn’t and I don’t think Biden has got enough time to turn it around
I will make a prediction - we will look at the polling splits post election and be shocked at how the gap between Trump and the Democrats narrowed since 2016.
If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
The worrying polling will be published at 2pm and the history lesson at 7pm.
If we can have only one, please let it be the intriguing polling tease.
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
The worrying polling will be published at 2pm and the history lesson at 7pm.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
If Trump loses I think it is likely he will be in prison in 2024. The list of potential charges is not short.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
There has been sod all Covid here for months. Barrow is a concern, though. But that is miles away. We are on the edge of the Irish Sea and on a good day, which today is, can see Scotland from the top of Black Combe.
For Trump to win he needs to win FL and all of PA, MI and WI. FL certainly seems possible but he is underwater in the other three - I can really only see him winning through “shenanigans” if there is a close result.
Biden has led Trump in head to head polling since 2017 - we are talking of a polling error many times worse than 2016 for Trump to win. And even if the polls are wrong, it’s possible of course that they could be wrong in Biden’s direction.
No, Trump needs to win FL and only 1 of PA, MI and WI, it is Biden who needs to win all 3 of the latter, not Trump
That's true although at the moment it only about even money on Biden taking all four. Gonna be difficult interpreting the polls though until the situation with Trump's health clarifies, and of course we won't be helped by the customary stream of lies coming out of the White House.
I suspect that for the next couple of weeks, Hyufd, even your guess will be as good as anybody's.
Grayson Perry going to Wisconsin on C4 on Wednesday night to report on the election in the pivotal swing state
I am sure that Dura Ace will provide examples of people acting fearlessly but with common sense. Must be frequent in military situations!
Are you suggesting you're incapable of using common sense if you're not acting terrified?
That's a bit convoluted ....... too many negatives,............. but I think the answer is one is unlikely to use common sense if terrified. And equally unlikely to act in a common-sense way if acting in a reckless fashion!
Well indeed. I think the idea is to use common sense, not be either fearful or reckless. What's wrong with that?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
Agreed - and whichever way you look at the 10pm curfew, effective or ineffective, that is true.
Spare a though though for the events industry, which as furlough ends is simply being wiped out.
I will - events, theatre, music, hospitality, etc - all of them are being crucified by this government on the grounds that they are not viable when a large part of that “unviability” is a direct result of the government’s own actions.
It is utterly dishonest of a government which at the same time wants to be free to give state aid to some sectors, basically techie friends of Dominic.
Another version of the one rule for us, one rule for them theme which permeates everything this government does.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
If Trump loses I think it is likely he will be in prison in 2024. The list of potential charges is not short.
Technically you can still run for President even from prison
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
The Tesco share price is down since covid-19 but not so much as more discretionary spend industries. i think sales are overall fine (includes online) but extra costs for covid-19 and staff to police them means margins not the same. Tesco will survive but th elikes of cineworld , waterstones etc will not unless we ditch the useless mask policy
Sunak is presumably not that bothered on the grounds that the the country's largest cinema and bookshop chains are no longer "viable" businesses and can be left to go to the wall.
Decisions like those of Cineworld follow on from his decision to offer minimum wage support post October and no further sector specific support despite the fact that Covid disproportionately impacts on some businesses whilst others suffer no adverse effects. Decisions will also be taken from a longer term perspective, and it doesn't help to see a continued and incomprehensible reluctance to avoid shifting business taxation away from business rates on premises and towards online sales, in order to create a level playing field. What was once the party of shopkeepers has become the party of online retailers.
Yes and that will lead to a far more insular ,miserable looking nation in the future - covid or no covid.
If the State orders the shut down of businesses like events then it has to pay their basics e.g. wages until it allows them to reopen.
I've no idea what Sunak is playing at. He was doing well in the first phase of covid.
Wealthy Tory donors are getting queasy about the size of the deficit and the tax bill coming their way. Sunak's new measures are stupendously stingy.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
Ocado runs at a profit doesn't it?
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
Does it? Ocado declares profit only at EBITDA level so before the heavy depreciation on its high-tech operation. And besides which - who cares? You are comparing a technology company to retail. Ocado is not a retailer. It has no shops.
Can you provide me your data for Aldi and Lidl? Having been the two power-houses of the industry with not only the fastest sales expansion but the lowest cost base would be interesting to see the data you have based that comment on.
I don't have the data for Aldi and Lidl, saw it on a Sky News report.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
Far more likely that one of the Trump kids runs for the nomination in 2024. Probably Ivanka, as the rest of the family may well be in jail.
Ivanka is too much of a RINO for the GOP base at the moment, if Donald does not run again they would pick Pence over her
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
You should read the article below, originally posted by Nigelb, if you haven`t already.
Annoying thing is that restaurants aren`t necessarily "overdispersion" venues and so are unlikely to give rise to super-spreader events, that this article makes clear are the problems to avoid.
One of the problems we now have with Johnson is that of expectation. If a Johnson performance is not an absolute train wreck it is viewed as an unqualified success.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
From the BBC site South Lakeland
29 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 23 Sep-29 Sep. The average area in England had 28. 31 cases in the latest week 23 Sep-29 Sep, which is +2, compared with the previous week
734 total cases to 02 Oct 149 coronavirus-related deaths registered to 18 Sep
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
I did my weekly shop at the Wembley superstore. Reduced prices on all sorts of items, but only if you use a club card seems an act of desperation. Personally, I’d rather my shopping habits were not detailed on their database, so that they could tempt me weekly with carefully-selected offers. I won’t be going there again.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
Suggestion on the Ferguson model: the Government should hire a number of City analysts to dissect in detail Ferguson’s model and go through all his assumptions and formulae that he has used in his calculations. I’m willing to bet that Ferguson’s model is a classic case of GINO (Garbage In, Nonsense Out)
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
The Labour policy of having measures set by local directors of public health seems the right approach. They have the local knowledge.
I am sure that Dura Ace will provide examples of people acting fearlessly but with common sense. Must be frequent in military situations!
Are you suggesting you're incapable of using common sense if you're not acting terrified?
That's a bit convoluted ....... too many negatives,............. but I think the answer is one is unlikely to use common sense if terrified. And equally unlikely to act in a common-sense way if acting in a reckless fashion!
Well indeed. I think the idea is to use common sense, not be either fearful or reckless. What's wrong with that?
Where are 'reckless' and 'fearless', on the scale between 'terrified' and 'foolhardy'?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Is there any sign of only going out with one household being introduced nationwide? As opposed to local areas where there are high cases?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
The Labour policy of having measures set by local directors of public health seems the right approach. They have the local knowledge.
I was thinking that would be a good idea after watching the Anne Marie Duff drama about the Salisbury poisonings. The Director of Public health for Wiltshire ploughed her own furrow and where necessary overruled government intervention.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
Agreed - and whichever way you look at the 10pm curfew, effective or ineffective, that is true.
Spare a though though for the events industry, which as furlough ends is simply being wiped out.
I will - events, theatre, music, hospitality, etc - all of them are being crucified by this government on the grounds that they are not viable when a large part of that “unviability” is a direct result of the government’s own actions.
It is utterly dishonest of a government which at the same time wants to be free to give state aid to some sectors, basically techie friends of Dominic.
Another version of the one rule for us, one rule for them theme which permeates everything this government does.
Its not just the rules though, it is the pandemic.
The only pub that I have been to since March has been my local for Sunday lunch on two occasions
Its not the curfew that bothers me, as if I do go it tends to be after work drinks. Colleagues don't want to go, and it simply doesn't look much fun.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
If Trump loses I think it is likely he will be in prison in 2024. The list of potential charges is not short.
Technically you can still run for President even from prison
I know you only said probably but also win the GOP nomination from prison?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Is there any sign of only going out with one household being introduced nationwide? As opposed to local areas where there are high cases?
That would be a very bad idea.
I was very glad that Boris held the line and didn't follow Scotland. The two household rule is madness, it effectively stops groups of friends from meeting in person. My wife's birthday gathering last night wouldn't have been possible with that in place.
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Is there any sign of only going out with one household being introduced nationwide? As opposed to local areas where there are high cases?
That would be a very bad idea.
Agree. I wander down to the pub in the hope of chatting with someone other than my wife. As does the chap I often meet there. We then, severally, go home and tell our wives some at least of what we have been chatting about.
Good article Robert. At the risk of getting more brickbats, I’ll give a few other pointers that might suggest the consensus is wrong re Trump and / or why the Democrats might not be doing so well:
1. Closing gap in registration numbers in swing states. I have posted this link before but it is worth checking out. I’m on a mobile so difficult to go back and forth typing in the numbers but in all 4 of the 6 swing states Trump won last time and which release voter registration trends by party (FL, PA, AZ and NC), the GOP has closed the registration gap since the last election with the Democrats. Article https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1241674
2. Hispanic voters. We had a big debate on here a day or two ago about why Black voters would go with the GOP. What is probably more of an issue for the Democrats is that there have been consistent signs in the polling that their lead over the GOP has been shrinking. That’s important in states like FL and AZ but also in NV where the tone of language is suggesting the race is tightening (and possibly even CO at a push).
One big mistake the Democrats - and it’s a classic middle class white liberal one - is to lump Black people and Hispanics in as a one big “People of Colour” family so that Hispanics should be naturally on the side of BLM. That is far from the case and the vibes coming out of Hispanic voters is they feel the Democrats have ignored their concerns.
3. Change in the ground game. It’s a bit linked to 1 but the GOP has been continuing to go door to door to sign up voters whilst the Dems have focused on a virtual campaign. Probably the key reason why Obama won in 2012 was the strength of the GOTV operation and that works best when you can do physical canvassing. There had been disquiet for a while amongst some Democrats over the virtual approach and there is a switch to physical door knocking (interesting NV and NH are two of the first states), the question is whether is too late;
4. Voter enthusiasm: Trump rallies pull in crowds who are prepared to queue, Biden speeches don’t. It’s not a great way to measure but it can actually be a decent way of seeing how fired up people are.
If Biden does lose, the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is assuming it’s all down to “unfair” factors such as Trump getting a sympathy vote etc etc. There have been enough warning signals elsewhere.
Point 1 is pretty terrifying, the rest are just theories.
I'm going to look closely at the odds on Biden when market reopens. If i can cash out at ~1.4, reckon that might be good enough for me.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
Ocado runs at a profit doesn't it?
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
Does it? Ocado declares profit only at EBITDA level so before the heavy depreciation on its high-tech operation. And besides which - who cares? You are comparing a technology company to retail. Ocado is not a retailer. It has no shops.
Can you provide me your data for Aldi and Lidl? Having been the two power-houses of the industry with not only the fastest sales expansion but the lowest cost base would be interesting to see the data you have based that comment on.
I don't have the data for Aldi and Lidl, saw it on a Sky News report.
Ocado isn't a traditional retailer, as Richard said. And its tech is very expensive.
Frankly, I'm expecting the retailers to win the omnichannel war eventually. They have massive clout, some great locations, and more importantly the data that will allow them to e.g. optimise the number of product lines.
Anyone seen the Netflix vs the World doc? Blockbuster were pretty much putting winning when they switched to a hybrid post/store model. It was only a change of leadership that led to a (fatal) reversal of that....
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
Agreed - and whichever way you look at the 10pm curfew, effective or ineffective, that is true.
Spare a though though for the events industry, which as furlough ends is simply being wiped out.
I will - events, theatre, music, hospitality, etc - all of them are being crucified by this government on the grounds that they are not viable when a large part of that “unviability” is a direct result of the government’s own actions.
It is utterly dishonest of a government which at the same time wants to be free to give state aid to some sectors, basically techie friends of Dominic.
Another version of the one rule for us, one rule for them theme which permeates everything this government does.
Its not just the rules though, it is the pandemic.
The only pub that I have been to since March has been my local for Sunday lunch on two occasions
Its not the curfew that bothers me, as if I do go it tends to be after work drinks. Colleagues don't want to go, and it simply doesn't look much fun.
Having to arrange group of up to six and book a table is a pain. But table service is nice, at least in those places that have worked out how to make it work.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
Ocado runs at a profit doesn't it?
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
Does it? Ocado declares profit only at EBITDA level so before the heavy depreciation on its high-tech operation. And besides which - who cares? You are comparing a technology company to retail. Ocado is not a retailer. It has no shops.
Can you provide me your data for Aldi and Lidl? Having been the two power-houses of the industry with not only the fastest sales expansion but the lowest cost base would be interesting to see the data you have based that comment on.
I don't have the data for Aldi and Lidl, saw it on a Sky News report.
"Aldi has still seen strong growth, they're still selling 10% more than they did last year, but for the first time they've grown behind the market," says Fraser McKevitt, Head of Retail and Consumer Insight at consumer analysts Kantar.
Aldi has missed out on the extra purchasing by consumers during the pandemic, he says, especially with people shopping locally and online.
"Shoppers were also doing fewer but bigger shopping trips so with the smaller stores the discounters have, they lost out a bit on that which isn't a position they've been in before."
Hence Aldi now moving to deliveries and click and collect
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
From the BBC site South Lakeland
29 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 23 Sep-29 Sep. The average area in England had 28. 31 cases in the latest week 23 Sep-29 Sep, which is +2, compared with the previous week
734 total cases to 02 Oct 149 coronavirus-related deaths registered to 18 Sep
So pretty average, really.
South Lakeland is a very big area. Where we are - in the villages and only town - we have been Covid-free for months. No reason not to continue being careful - and people are being - mask-wearing is 100% in shops, for instance - but not a reason for hysteria either.
What people are scared of is unemployment because once you’ve taken out hospitality and leisure and tourism, there’s not a great deal left. Sellafield has started cutting contractors and farming is wondering what the end of the Brexit transition will mean.
People could go and work in the new coal mine that’s just been approved further up the coast, I suppose. Maybe that’s what the Tories mean by “levelling up” - sending the young back down the mines.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
Suggestion on the Ferguson model: the Government should hire a number of City analysts to dissect in detail Ferguson’s model and go through all his assumptions and formulae that he has used in his calculations. I’m willing to bet that Ferguson’s model is a classic case of GINO (Garbage In, Nonsense Out)
We have no use of experts.
City modelers can forecast financial matters, but epidemiology requires a different skill set.
Far better for the data to be open sourced to other epidemiologists to look at and critique.
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
I've Liked, in the sense of agreeing. Not very happy about it, but as I've said elsewhere, I think we're in for a major change in the way some at least of humanity behaves.
Good article Robert. At the risk of getting more brickbats, I’ll give a few other pointers that might suggest the consensus is wrong re Trump and / or why the Democrats might not be doing so well:
1. Closing gap in registration numbers in swing states. I have posted this link before but it is worth checking out. I’m on a mobile so difficult to go back and forth typing in the numbers but in all 4 of the 6 swing states Trump won last time and which release voter registration trends by party (FL, PA, AZ and NC), the GOP has closed the registration gap since the last election with the Democrats. Article https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1241674
2. Hispanic voters. We had a big debate on here a day or two ago about why Black voters would go with the GOP. What is probably more of an issue for the Democrats is that there have been consistent signs in the polling that their lead over the GOP has been shrinking. That’s important in states like FL and AZ but also in NV where the tone of language is suggesting the race is tightening (and possibly even CO at a push).
One big mistake the Democrats - and it’s a classic middle class white liberal one - is to lump Black people and Hispanics in as a one big “People of Colour” family so that Hispanics should be naturally on the side of BLM. That is far from the case and the vibes coming out of Hispanic voters is they feel the Democrats have ignored their concerns.
3. Change in the ground game. It’s a bit linked to 1 but the GOP has been continuing to go door to door to sign up voters whilst the Dems have focused on a virtual campaign. Probably the key reason why Obama won in 2012 was the strength of the GOTV operation and that works best when you can do physical canvassing. There had been disquiet for a while amongst some Democrats over the virtual approach and there is a switch to physical door knocking (interesting NV and NH are two of the first states), the question is whether is too late;
4. Voter enthusiasm: Trump rallies pull in crowds who are prepared to queue, Biden speeches don’t. It’s not a great way to measure but it can actually be a decent way of seeing how fired up people are.
If Biden does lose, the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is assuming it’s all down to “unfair” factors such as Trump getting a sympathy vote etc etc. There have been enough warning signals elsewhere.
Point 1 is pretty terrifying, the rest are just theories.
I'm going to look closely at the odds on Biden when market reopens. If i can cash out at ~1.4, reckon that might be good enough for me.
2 is not a theory. The polling has consistently shown the Hispanic lead for the Democrats has narrowed from 2016 both at the national level and for key states. A number of Democrats have expressed similar concerns. Look at the 2 links I posted to Edmund (I’ll post again if you want);
Biden is way too short. You are effectively banking on the polls being correct because there is not much other evidence suggesting Biden is sweeping to victory. And, as Robert said, polls can be wrong
I am sure that Dura Ace will provide examples of people acting fearlessly but with common sense. Must be frequent in military situations!
Are you suggesting you're incapable of using common sense if you're not acting terrified?
That's a bit convoluted ....... too many negatives,............. but I think the answer is one is unlikely to use common sense if terrified. And equally unlikely to act in a common-sense way if acting in a reckless fashion!
Well indeed. I think the idea is to use common sense, not be either fearful or reckless. What's wrong with that?
The fact that "reckless" and "fearless" are synonyms, so it comes to a contradiction.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
The Labour policy of having measures set by local directors of public health seems the right approach. They have the local knowledge.
And in practice would they be prepared to delegate that sort of authority when in power? Both Labour and Tory governments like their English fiefdom too much.
If I'm crossing the road I stop, look both directions first and only cross when its safe to do so. Common sense, not fear.
I don't just stand their as a quivering wreck thinking I could be killed if I cross the road and get hit and be too terrified to move, nor do I simply step onto the road into the path of an oncoming bus because I didn't bother to look first.
You have characteristically missed the point.
Which is that even you can presumably cross the road without the help of a government slogan or government instructions.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Is there any sign of only going out with one household being introduced nationwide? As opposed to local areas where there are high cases?
That would be a very bad idea.
I don’t know. I fear that it will.
It is utterly dishonest of this government not to provide support for businesses which in theory can open but which have lost much of their business as a direct result of government measures. The government’s focus on furlough and closure is a sleight of hand. Impacted businesses need support because government restrictions are the same as closure of 50% of their business, no matter what clever words Sunak and others use to justify letting them go hang.
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
I find this attitude very sad. It's very defeatist.
I think what might be possible with an engaged, educated and well-lead citizenship that makes a collective effort. I think back to the 750,000 volunteers in the early days and rue the missed opportunity to involve the population in working together to solve this problem.
Instead we have a population that is threatened, chided and left leaderless.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
The Tesco share price is down since covid-19 but not so much as more discretionary spend industries. i think sales are overall fine (includes online) but extra costs for covid-19 and staff to police them means margins not the same. Tesco will survive but the likes of cineworld , waterstones,pubs etc will not unless we ditch the useless mask and 10pm curfew policy
I read somewhere that supermarket delivery operations run at a loss (although Tesco as the only one to actually charge for delivery may be different?) but they have to do it or lose volume to rivals. Perhaps Rochdale would know? (edit/ I see he says as much downthread)
Going forward that doesn't seem a sustainable model and at some point people are surely going to have to pay for delivery, or join some sort of annual subscription service like Amazon Prime.
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
I've Liked, in the sense of agreeing. Not very happy about it, but as I've said elsewhere, I think we're in for a major change in the way some at least of humanity behaves.
Indeed. The most obvious changes are more home working and less commuting, and an acceleration of other social trends such as online shopping and home movies rather than cinemas.
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
What we are seeing is the reversal of globalisation from Covid-19 on top of Reaction to globalisation from populist.
Thee government should have been promoting domestic touris since June. Indeed, Fox jr hired a cottage with some mates in South Lake Land, rather than clubbing in Aya Napa like last year.
Some licensed and marshalled outdoor raves would have been a good move too.
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
I've Liked, in the sense of agreeing. Not very happy about it, but as I've said elsewhere, I think we're in for a major change in the way some at least of humanity behaves.
Indeed. The most obvious changes are more home working and less commuting, and an acceleration of other social trends such as online shopping and home movies rather than cinemas.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
Suggestion on the Ferguson model: the Government should hire a number of City analysts to dissect in detail Ferguson’s model and go through all his assumptions and formulae that he has used in his calculations. I’m willing to bet that Ferguson’s model is a classic case of GINO (Garbage In, Nonsense Out)
We have no use of experts.
City modelers can forecast financial matters, but epidemiology requires a different skill set.
Far better for the data to be open sourced to other epidemiologists to look at and critique.
I don't think the suggestion was that the "city analysts" take over the forecasting. Just cast a critical eye and challenge the assumptions. Some of that may be from a position of ignorance. But there is nothing wrong with that in principle. In fact asking questions from a position of ignorance is often a useful challenge mechanism. Because sometimes assumptions from those producing the model can become baked in without serious review that can only come from outside challenge.
I am sure that Dura Ace will provide examples of people acting fearlessly but with common sense. Must be frequent in military situations!
Are you suggesting you're incapable of using common sense if you're not acting terrified?
That's a bit convoluted ....... too many negatives,............. but I think the answer is one is unlikely to use common sense if terrified. And equally unlikely to act in a common-sense way if acting in a reckless fashion!
Well indeed. I think the idea is to use common sense, not be either fearful or reckless. What's wrong with that?
The fact that "reckless" and "fearless" are synonyms, so it comes to a contradiction.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Ivanka is too much of a RINO for the GOP base at the moment, if Donald does not run again they would pick Pence over her
I can't see Donald Trump trying again if he loses next month. Grover Cleveland was, with respect, a long time ago and Trump would be 78 if he sought the Presidency again in 2024 (Reagan was 77 at the end of his two terms).
The question is whether you think we are moving to a period of 1-term alternating Presidencies or whether the more "traditional" pattern of two or even three term dominance will re-assert. I see Pence as a 2020s Goldwater - fine for the conservative base but with no chance in a different America.
His defeat would allow the GOP to tack back to a more centrist position in 2028 - Nikki Haley would be 56 by then - and I think she is the first (or second perhaps) female President.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Presumably there is sod all covid in the edges of the Lake District?
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
Suggestion on the Ferguson model: the Government should hire a number of City analysts to dissect in detail Ferguson’s model and go through all his assumptions and formulae that he has used in his calculations. I’m willing to bet that Ferguson’s model is a classic case of GINO (Garbage In, Nonsense Out)
We have no use of experts.
City modelers can forecast financial matters, but epidemiology requires a different skill set.
Far better for the data to be open sourced to other epidemiologists to look at and critique.
I don't think the suggestion was that the "city analysts" take over the forecasting. Just cast a critical eye and challenge the assumptions. Some of that may be from a position of ignorance. But there is nothing wrong with that in principle. In fact asking questions from a position of ignorance is often a useful challenge mechanism. Because sometimes assumptions from those producing the model can become baked in without serious review that can only come from outside challenge.
His work is already subject to peer review though, isn't it?
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
A zero covid policy* is not possible in a large, western democracy without much more constraints on individual freedom and surveillance than is politically possible or acceptable.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
----- *NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
Indeed. But do we have the politicians in place to implement long term strategies, without fear of what happens at the next election?
Perhaps the answer is GNU and a moratorium on elections for the foreseeable future. The notion of GNU might not work so well in Brazil, Turkey, Belarus or dare I say the USA.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
Different business models. The only way she is surviving the loss of drinkers coming in to chat with friends is by having as big a food offering as possible - both eat-in and take-away.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
Is there any sign of only going out with one household being introduced nationwide? As opposed to local areas where there are high cases?
That would be a very bad idea.
I don’t know. I fear that it will.
It is utterly dishonest of this government not to provide support for businesses which in theory can open but which have lost much of their business as a direct result of government measures. The government’s focus on furlough and closure is a sleight of hand. Impacted businesses need support because government restrictions are the same as closure of 50% of their business, no matter what clever words Sunak and others use to justify letting them go hang.
Isn't there a balance to be struck. The workforces of many businesses will not all be a full time permanent staff. The problem with blanket furlough is that it arguably goes beyond what is required to keep businesses ticking over/able to survive the crisis until better times. ie. it becomes an anti unemployment measure, not primarily a (viable) business sustaining measure. Not that that is necessarily a bad thing per se, but many of the part time/temporary people furloughed could have found employment in areas less affected or even growth areas of the crisis.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
I did my weekly shop at the Wembley superstore. Reduced prices on all sorts of items, but only if you use a club card seems an act of desperation. Personally, I’d rather my shopping habits were not detailed on their database, so that they could tempt me weekly with carefully-selected offers. I won’t be going there again.
Yes, I hear you. Clubcard is the one advantage Tesco believe they have over someone like Asda or even Sainsbury's. And so we have the madness of the new Tesco pricing policy - you can have promotional offers only if you have a clubcard. They're some kind of wierd amalgam of a traditional supermarket, a german "discounter" like Aldi, and a membership warehouse like Costco.
I don't expect it to last long, as frankly differential pricing on products depending on your status is a desperate attempt to bag shopper loyalty and make Clubcard have any purpose. Once upon a time Clubcard was a reason to suffer the trip to Tesco. Then they devalued it to being almost worthless.
Comments
Could it be Biden polling has fallen through the floor? Could it be Johnson has reasserted his 15 point lead? Both would be worrying, but which one is it?
I mean even those that will hold their nose and vote for him (for whatever reason) surely can't actually "approve" of him!
Get better, Donald.
Government is to blame for some of this. Stoking up too much fear - especially early on. And the appalling selection and presentation of statistics.
https://twitter.com/AlexMohajer/status/1312563570240962560
It may be less profitable than traditional stores, but it is certainly possible to run a profit.
The supermarkets that seem to be struggling the most due to the pandemic are Aldi and Lidl who don't really do online orders, plus their stores are typically tiny and not set up for social distancing.
Decisions like those of Cineworld follow on from his decision to offer minimum wage support post October and no further sector specific support despite the fact that Covid disproportionately impacts on some businesses whilst others suffer no adverse effects. Decisions will also be taken from a longer term perspective, and it doesn't help to see a continued and incomprehensible reluctance to avoid shifting business taxation away from business rates on premises and towards online sales, in order to create a level playing field. What was once the party of shopkeepers has become the party of online retailers.
Spare a though though for the events industry, which as furlough ends is simply being wiped out.
1. Closing gap in registration numbers in swing states. I have posted this link before but it is worth checking out. I’m on a mobile so difficult to go back and forth typing in the numbers but in all 4 of the 6 swing states Trump won last time and which release voter registration trends by party (FL, PA, AZ and NC), the GOP has closed the registration gap since the last election with the Democrats. Article https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1241674
2. Hispanic voters. We had a big debate on here a day or two ago about why Black voters would go with the GOP. What is probably more of an issue for the Democrats is that there have been consistent signs in the polling that their lead over the GOP has been shrinking. That’s important in states like FL and AZ but also in NV where the tone of language is suggesting the race is tightening (and possibly even CO at a push).
One big mistake the Democrats - and it’s a classic middle class white liberal one - is to lump Black people and Hispanics in as a one big “People of Colour” family so that Hispanics should be naturally on the side of BLM. That is far from the case and the vibes coming out of Hispanic voters is they feel the Democrats have ignored their concerns.
3. Change in the ground game. It’s a bit linked to 1 but the GOP has been continuing to go door to door to sign up voters whilst the Dems have focused on a virtual campaign. Probably the key reason why Obama won in 2012 was the strength of the GOTV operation and that works best when you can do physical canvassing. There had been disquiet for a while amongst some Democrats over the virtual approach and there is a switch to physical door knocking (interesting NV and NH are two of the first states), the question is whether is too late;
4. Voter enthusiasm: Trump rallies pull in crowds who are prepared to queue, Biden speeches don’t. It’s not a great way to measure but it can actually be a decent way of seeing how fired up people are.
If Biden does lose, the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is assuming it’s all down to “unfair” factors such as Trump getting a sympathy vote etc etc. There have been enough warning signals elsewhere.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
I have also been to bookshops plus facemask and plenty there
I've no idea what Sunak is playing at. He was doing well in the first phase of covid.
If only going out with one household is brought in nationwide, then the business - like many others - will be finished.
The government does not have a fucking clue.
The real question is why the government have so comprehensively bungled test, trace and isolate, and what needs to be done to fix it?
The testing isn't fast enough and not enough people are isolating. What practical steps improve that?
Have the outsourcing companies been a help or a hindrance? Would continuous incremental improvement be easier if NHS capacity was expanded? How to move government communication on from the minutiae of restrictions to the essential importance of isolation? Do we need isolation facilities? Should payments for isolation be greater? A general improvement in sick pay? What about government food deliveries for those isolating (which would combine checking up that they're isolating at the same time)? Should we be using GPs to do screening for Covid testing to help ensure the capacity is used most effectively?
I also think a zero covid strategy should be reconsidered. If we'd been a bit more patient in the spring and driven the virus down further, and stopped international travel reintroducing the virus, we would have had a chance to extinguish it. We'd be seeing the rewards now in terms of looser restrictions.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1312682092480917504
Starmer leads however with Labour Remain voters by 84% to 2%, Labour Leave voters by 61% to 10% and LDs by 67% to 7%.
Notably Lab-Con switchers are most pro No Deal or hard Brexit, 48% of them say the most important thing 'is to make sure that having left the EU we don't end up giving it a say over our laws and regulations or our trade with non-EU countries' compared to 30% of voters overall and they are also more likely to say that than Conservative Remainers, only 36% of whom say that is the most important thing. 42% of voters overall say the most important thing is to get a Deal with the EU.
64% of Conservative Leave voters say that so it looks like Starmer will have more luck appealing to Conservative Remainers if No Deal than Lab-Con switchers in 2019 or Conservative Leave voters if No Deal. The LDs would also hope to appeal to Tory Remainers in their target seats in London and the South if No Deal
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/A-NEW-POLITICAL-LANDSCAPE-Oct-2020.pdf
Can you provide me your data for Aldi and Lidl? Having been the two power-houses of the industry with not only the fastest sales expansion but the lowest cost base would be interesting to see the data you have based that comment on.
It is utterly dishonest of a government which at the same time wants to be free to give state aid to some sectors, basically techie friends of Dominic.
Another version of the one rule for us, one rule for them theme which permeates everything this government does.
It would be madness to bring in another national lockdown when swathes of the country have very low rates of covid.
The government has lost the plot on all this. They have got to get some sense of proportion and pull back from the Ferguson modelling (which incidentally looks like being wildly wrong again in the so-called second wave).
Thankfully, MPs are starting to wise up.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN26N1M7
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/opinion/latino-voters-trump.amp.html
The second one is certainly worth reading.
I wrote a thread on here a while back saying why Biden should have chosen Lujan Grisham as his running mate in order to secure the Hispanic vote. I still think he should have done and it would have made me reconsider thinking Trump will win. But he didn’t and I don’t think Biden has got enough time to turn it around
I will make a prediction - we will look at the polling splits post election and be shocked at how the gap between Trump and the Democrats narrowed since 2016.
Annoying thing is that restaurants aren`t necessarily "overdispersion" venues and so are unlikely to give rise to super-spreader events, that this article makes clear are the problems to avoid.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
South Lakeland
29 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 23 Sep-29 Sep. The average area in England had 28.
31 cases in the latest week 23 Sep-29 Sep, which is +2, compared with the previous week
734 total cases to 02 Oct
149 coronavirus-related deaths registered to 18 Sep
So pretty average, really.
That would be a very bad idea.
The only pub that I have been to since March has been my local for Sunday lunch on two occasions
Its not the curfew that bothers me, as if I do go it tends to be after work drinks. Colleagues don't want to go, and it simply doesn't look much fun.
Western liberal democracies have historically been very successful -- but they have finally met their match. They have met an inexorable & implacable enemy that feeds of their historical virtues and turns them into weaknesses.
If (as I think likely), this persists for 3-4 years, then we have met a tipping point in global history, a turning point in which global superiority heads dramatically to the East, and different form of Governments -- with much more governmental interference and surveillance -- are admired and are successful.
We in the West will have disaster delayed and prolonged over 3-4 years, and emerge finally with devastated economies and huge civil discord.
-----
*NZ is very exceptional in terms of isolation, population density and self-sufficiency.
I'm going to look closely at the odds on Biden when market reopens. If i can cash out at ~1.4, reckon that might be good enough for me.
Frankly, I'm expecting the retailers to win the omnichannel war eventually. They have massive clout, some great locations, and more importantly the data that will allow them to e.g. optimise the number of product lines.
Anyone seen the Netflix vs the World doc? Blockbuster were pretty much putting winning when they switched to a hybrid post/store model. It was only a change of leadership that led to a (fatal) reversal of that....
Aldi has missed out on the extra purchasing by consumers during the pandemic, he says, especially with people shopping locally and online.
"Shoppers were also doing fewer but bigger shopping trips so with the smaller stores the discounters have, they lost out a bit on that which isn't a position they've been in before."
Hence Aldi now moving to deliveries and click and collect
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54319940
What people are scared of is unemployment because once you’ve taken out hospitality and leisure and tourism, there’s not a great deal left. Sellafield has started cutting contractors and farming is wondering what the end of the Brexit transition will mean.
People could go and work in the new coal mine that’s just been approved further up the coast, I suppose. Maybe that’s what the Tories mean by “levelling up” - sending the young back down the mines.
City modelers can forecast financial matters, but epidemiology requires a different skill set.
Far better for the data to be open sourced to other epidemiologists to look at and critique.
Biden is way too short. You are effectively banking on the polls being correct because there is not much other evidence suggesting Biden is sweeping to victory. And, as Robert said, polls can be wrong
Which is that even you can presumably cross the road without the help of a government slogan or government instructions.
So it's worthless.
It is utterly dishonest of this government not to provide support for businesses which in theory can open but which have lost much of their business as a direct result of government measures. The government’s focus on furlough and closure is a sleight of hand. Impacted businesses need support because government restrictions are the same as closure of 50% of their business, no matter what clever words Sunak and others use to justify letting them go hang.
I think what might be possible with an engaged, educated and well-lead citizenship that makes a collective effort. I think back to the 750,000 volunteers in the early days and rue the missed opportunity to involve the population in working together to solve this problem.
Instead we have a population that is threatened, chided and left leaderless.
Going forward that doesn't seem a sustainable model and at some point people are surely going to have to pay for delivery, or join some sort of annual subscription service like Amazon Prime.
Thee government should have been promoting domestic touris since June. Indeed, Fox jr hired a cottage with some mates in South Lake Land, rather than clubbing in Aya Napa like last year.
Some licensed and marshalled outdoor raves would have been a good move too.
The question is whether you think we are moving to a period of 1-term alternating Presidencies or whether the more "traditional" pattern of two or even three term dominance will re-assert. I see Pence as a 2020s Goldwater - fine for the conservative base but with no chance in a different America.
His defeat would allow the GOP to tack back to a more centrist position in 2028 - Nikki Haley would be 56 by then - and I think she is the first (or second perhaps) female President.
Perhaps the answer is GNU and a moratorium on elections for the foreseeable future. The notion of GNU might not work so well in Brazil, Turkey, Belarus or dare I say the USA.
I don't expect it to last long, as frankly differential pricing on products depending on your status is a desperate attempt to bag shopper loyalty and make Clubcard have any purpose. Once upon a time Clubcard was a reason to suffer the trip to Tesco. Then they devalued it to being almost worthless.