As someone who has been a Cineworld card holder since 2000 (when they were UGC) I cancelled my card last week because I couldn't see me going back to the cinema this side of a vaccine (except for the Bond films and the MCU films.)
My friend bought tickets to see Tenet, went into screen 7 and saw six people sat there, all with their masks off, and she left before the film started.
I particularly like the bit where he abandoned his Mrs and kids on holiday to scale of the wall of Petronalla "Petsy" Wyatt's Italian villa where he threatened to top himself if she stopped fucking him. Absolute scenes.
Yes, it is quite interesting. This is a curious incident described from 1976, when BoZo was 12:
"It was the regular habit for Boris’s parents to walk around their home and Exmoor farm naked in the summer.
His father, Stanley, told their young family’s two au pairs in 1976 that a water shortage meant they were unable to wash their clothes so they, too, should not wear any.
Both complied and walked around in the nude.
Stanley insisted on two au pairs – and embarked on an affair with one, in front of his children."
The factoid that caught my eye was the crush/relationship between Bozo and the current Mrs Cummings.
Almost all of it is simply further evidence that he is a grade one self-obsessed s**t
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
Sunak's more recent economic Covid strategies don't appear to be the work of the political and economic genius, as he is portrayed in the media, and on here.
There seem to be significant gaps in the targeting of sectors which were viable before Covid and will be viable once Covid is beaten. The 20% universal furlough is no more than a band aid to repair a severed limb.
Who pays? Well the debt is so astronomical, and already unrepayable, I say in for a penny, in for a pound.
I am not a Sunak fan. He’s better than other Cabinet Ministers. But his latest economic plan is a worthless mess.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
I see New Caledonia is having a second independence referendum in two years, with a further one in another in 2022 if No wins. Parts of Old Caledonia may be a little jealous!
‘Vote yes - we implement the treaty. Vote no - well, we’ll keep voting until we get the right answer.’
Uh no, this is the process agreed to between the French government and the pro- and anti- (mostly French settlers) parties in New Caledonia back in 1998. Twenty years of autonomy for New Caledonia followed by up to three independence referendums. If this fails a third can be held in 2022.
The pro-independence side is heartened by the recent 90+% vote for independence from Papua New Guinea by nearby Bougainville, but I think France’s annual subsidy of €1.5billion will keep New Caledonia under the tricoleur.
I particularly like the bit where he abandoned his Mrs and kids on holiday to scale of the wall of Petronalla "Petsy" Wyatt's Italian villa where he threatened to top himself if she stopped fucking him. Absolute scenes.
Yes, it is quite interesting. This is a curious incident described from 1976, when BoZo was 12:
"It was the regular habit for Boris’s parents to walk around their home and Exmoor farm naked in the summer.
His father, Stanley, told their young family’s two au pairs in 1976 that a water shortage meant they were unable to wash their clothes so they, too, should not wear any.
Both complied and walked around in the nude.
Stanley insisted on two au pairs – and embarked on an affair with one, in front of his children."
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
We were down town for coffee and cake yesterday morning (the medal, I believe, is in the post) and it was genuinely startling how many shops, cafes and small businesses are now clearly gone for good. In the main shopping streets in Dundee I would say that coming on for a quarter of all shop premises are now boarded up. So far the larger chains are still there but if they start to fold as well we face devastation along with the loss of so much employment. The economic consequences of overly prescriptive policies which make having a viable business simply impossible are going to be with us longer than the virus.
Not just the economic consequences, @DavidL. There are social and human consequences as well.
I know and they are even more troubling. Those of us who are old enough to remember the horrific social costs of the early 90s recession with huge structural unemployment know that it takes a generation for society to recover. So many people, especially middle aged men, put on the scrap heap and left with shortened and unhealthy lives. The jobs miracle of the last decade had finally removed most of those scars but I fear we are heading back.
Signs Italy are getting worried? cross 10:21 In Rome, from this weekend, outdoor masks are mandatory. A measure that the Italian Government intends to transfer to the entire country. Despite the fact that the situation is more controlled than in other parts of Europe, Italy is close to 3,000 infected daily, data that has not been given since the confinement ended.
Mask wearing outside is already pretty common in parts of Italy at least, by my observation.
As I left, the weather was beginning to turn, and as it does eating out in the street and square will be replaced by people crowding inside cafes and restaurants. When you're eating you obviously have no mask, and given the Italians' love of an evening in the cafe, bar or trattoria, the potential risk is clear.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
For the cinemas there is nothing on that people want to see - that's the problem
It means don't hide at home. Go out and do things but be sensible about it, taking reasonable precautions like face, space, safe. He's right but I fear too many have been terrified by the earlier messaging.
First, there is the obvious point that only 4 Presidents in US history, Carter in 1980, Harrison in 1892, Cleveland in 1888 and arguably Adams in 1800 have failed to be re elected after only 1 term of their party in the White House.
So history still favours Trump and is against Biden, though that does not mean Biden could do a Reagan 1980 the odds are very much against him on that front.
However on current polling it does look more likely than not than Biden will win but remember IBID TIPP had a Biden lead of only 3% last week, if that was correct then on UNS Biden would only pick up Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin from 2016 and if any of those went back to Trump it would be enough for Trump to be re elected.
Remember too gold standard 2016 rustbelt swing state pollster Trafalgar Group has had Biden ahead in all its Pennsylvania polls but Trump ahead in 1 of its 3 Michigan polls this year and Trump ahead in 2 out of 3 of its Wisconsin polls.
Of those 3 Wisconsin is the most likely to stay with Trump, it had the biggest lead of the 3 for Trump in 2016 and in 2004 Kerry won Wisconsin by only 0.38% compared to a Kerry lead of over 3% in Michigan and a Kerry lead of 2.5% in Pennsylvania for example, in 2012 it had a smaller Obama lead than Michigan, though slightly bigger than Pennsylvania. Plus while Michigan has 7 Democratic US representatives and 7 Republican representatives and Pennsylvania has 9 Democratic representatives and 9 Republican representatives, Wisconsin still has 5 Republican representatives and only 3 Democratic representatives even after the 2018 midterms. So clearly is the more Republican leaning of the states.
In the end it may all come down to the Badger State
This is starting to remind me a lot of some of the posts during the 2019GE. Throughout the polling indicated a comfortable Tory win, but right to the end people were posting “clever” explanations of why that wouldn’t be the case.
To be fair, it’s a cleverish set of reasons why the unlikely is not impossible.
That’s why I have a certain amount of insurance on a narrow Trump win, the cost of which doesn’t make much of a dent in my prospective Trump loss winnings.
A lot of us who were more comfortable after the debate, are less so after Trump's hospitalisation. A sympathy vote for Trump, or even in the event, a sympathy vote for Pence seems quite likely.
Johnson was the dry-run for this situation. A very short term gain, but the window of opportunity is just the right size to accommodate Trump/Pence.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
Trump seemed somewhat humbled in that video to me. On the assumption he’s back on his feet in time for the last debate, it will be fascinating to see to what extent the experience has changed him / his approach.
In the right setting, he’s clearly been a man able to exhibit warmth and charm over the years, though these qualities have been almost totally lacking in his public persona since he entered politics.
Base case from here for me is Biden wins handily, Trump offers heartfelt congratulations and passes over the baton without any whisper of a dispute. Though I don’t think we can rule out a 2-4% swing from this that nudges him over the line, if he makes it to one more debate.
The ghouls hoping he succumbs should bear in mind that the c.10% of his profile that have died once infected would in most cases have had to wait a relatively long time before being tested or receiving any medical intervention at all. He’s had prompt oxygen and antibody treatment and a team of 9 doctors exclusively dedicated to his care (excluding the osteopath). He has also had the fortune to contract it in September and not March, meaning he gets to benefit from the perhaps halving in case fatality ratios due to simple things like prone position sleeping and dexamethasone.
Which is all good news. Because the sore his passing would open in American society might never heal.
Lovely little metaphor, but what does it mean? 40 odd PsOTUS have died, sorry, "passed" to date, most of them rather better at it in most views, than this one. Did their deaths open these unhealing sores, in which case it's just another one to add to the count, or is the hypothetical Trumpentod unique?
I may be mistaken but I don’t think the historical records show millions of ordinary Americans enthusiastically and publicly celebrating the passing of a sitting POTUS, which is what we would surely see in the case of Trump. I’m also unaware of a sitting POTUS giving at best tacit (and in truth probably worse) encouragement to armed vigilantes. Combined with online conspiracy theorising about fake medical diagnosis on the one hand and deliberately infected microphones on the other.
If you can’t see that Trump dying in office from covid is a potential tinderbox moment I’m not sure I can help. The US Culture War has for now been a metaphoric description but with each escalation in extremity and bedding down of division it increases the risk of it boiling over at some point in the coming decades.
[Cineworld's] comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
Before Covid, one major problem hitting the film production industry was how Netflix and Amazon were driving production costs UP, not down or out of existence. And, in spite of recent good health, Britain's film production industry accounted for a small proportion of Britain's film audience - and an almost imperceptibly trivial share of global film production.
The blunt truth is that cinema audiences in the UK have disappeared even though their core market (the under 30s) apparently have no problems infecting each other on an industrial scale around Britain's pubs and the Mediterranean's beaches. But they don't want to go to Britain's cinemas - because they're ghastly dumps reeking of popcorn and there's virtually unlimited content on Netflix (and iPlayer).
Blaming Britain's struggling film industry on Covid mismanagement displays a romantic misconception of how film viewership has changed since Britons queued in the rain for the 1/9d seats to watch Alastair Sim
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
I am off to see the remastered La Haine in our local arts cinema this week.
It seems to have sold a reasonable number of tickets on the online seating plan.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
It’ll definitely be a while before we see a white guy using the ‘n-word’ on screen, that’s for sure.
Kill Bill just needed a lot of editing to be one 150 minute movie, but Tarantino doesn’t like editing!
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
I think that he is self indulgent and has relatively little concept of a complete story arc but he is also a visual genius that creates almost magical and memorable scenes that you never forget. So I am not dissing him as such.
Plus while Michigan has 7 Democratic US representatives and 7 Republican representatives and Pennsylvania has 9 Democratic representatives and 9 Republican representatives, Wisconsin still has 5 Republican representatives and only 3 Democratic representatives even after the 2018 midterms. So clearly is the more Republican leaning of the states.
I think Wisconsin had a more audacious gerrymander, and didn't the Supreme Court in PA make them fix theirs?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
First, there is the obvious point that only 4 Presidents in US history, Carter in 1980, Harrison in 1892, Cleveland in 1888 and arguably Adams in 1800 have failed to be re elected after only 1 term of their party in the White House.
So history still favours Trump and is against Biden, though that does not mean Biden could do a Reagan 1980 the odds are very much against him on that front.
However on current polling it does look more likely than not than Biden will win but remember IBID TIPP had a Biden lead of only 3% last week, if that was correct then on UNS Biden would only pick up Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin from 2016 and if any of those went back to Trump it would be enough for Trump to be re elected.
Remember too gold standard 2016 rustbelt swing state pollster Trafalgar Group has had Biden ahead in all its Pennsylvania polls but Trump ahead in 1 of its 3 Michigan polls this year and Trump ahead in 2 out of 3 of its Wisconsin polls.
Of those 3 Wisconsin is the most likely to stay with Trump, it had the biggest lead of the 3 for Trump in 2016 and in 2004 Kerry won Wisconsin by only 0.38% compared to a Kerry lead of over 3% in Michigan and a Kerry lead of 2.5% in Pennsylvania. Plus while Michigan has 7 Democratic US representatives and 7 Republican representatives and Pennsylvania has 9 Democratic representatives and 9 Republican representatives, Wisconsin still has 5 Republican representatives and only 3 Democratic representatives even after the 2018 midterms. So clearly is the more Republican leaning of the states.
In the end it may all come down to the Badger State
Your polling evidence is helpful but your extrapolation from spurious historical precedence is pure voodoo.
Very good thread header Robert - 'premortem' is a great discipline and very apt here. I hope the Dem campaign leadership are doing some of this thinking.
I can't see how Trump doesn't get a polling boost in the next week or so.
I have my doubts whether it will continue until the election though - but that might just be wishful thinking.
This is starting to remind me a lot of some of the posts during the 2019GE. Throughout the polling indicated a comfortable Tory win, but right to the end people were posting “clever” explanations of why that wouldn’t be the case.
No 2019 poll had the Tory lead falling to just 3% as IBID TIPP had Biden's lead falling to last week and Corbyn lost even in 2017, Trump won in 2016
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
We were down town for coffee and cake yesterday morning (the medal, I believe, is in the post) and it was genuinely startling how many shops, cafes and small businesses are now clearly gone for good. In the main shopping streets in Dundee I would say that coming on for a quarter of all shop premises are now boarded up. So far the larger chains are still there but if they start to fold as well we face devastation along with the loss of so much employment. The economic consequences of overly prescriptive policies which make having a viable business simply impossible are going to be with us longer than the virus.
Not just the economic consequences, @DavidL. There are social and human consequences as well.
I know and they are even more troubling. Those of us who are old enough to remember the horrific social costs of the early 90s recession with huge structural unemployment know that it takes a generation for society to recover. So many people, especially middle aged men, put on the scrap heap and left with shortened and unhealthy lives. The jobs miracle of the last decade had finally removed most of those scars but I fear we are heading back.
The unemployment this time is likely to affect the young predominantly. People like my children - in their 20’s, starting out, full of hope and ideas and plans, and simply stuffed.
Anecdotally, Daughter says that she has more difficulty with getting older customers to stick to the rules re mask-wearing when moving around the pub, for instance. She finds it infuriating - not just because it makes her job harder (she didn’t go into this to become the fun police) but because it puts her at risk (of losing her licence, being fined etc) and because those restrictions are there to protect those customers.
For Trump to win he needs to win FL and all of PA, MI and WI. FL certainly seems possible but he is underwater in the other three - I can really only see him winning through “shenanigans” if there is a close result.
Biden has led Trump in head to head polling since 2017 - we are talking of a polling error many times worse than 2016 for Trump to win. And even if the polls are wrong, it’s possible of course that they could be wrong in Biden’s direction.
No, Trump needs to win FL and only 1 of PA, MI and WI, it is Biden who needs to win all 3 of the latter, not Trump
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Yes. Thurman and Travolta's dance to You Never Can Tell is one of my favourite all-time clips.
No previous prime minister came to the office with so many testimonials to his character flaws.
Were all these wailing Tories not acquainted with a biography littered with scandals and pratfalls, betrayed colleagues and broken promises?
Just nine months later, it is now the common currency of Tory complaint that the cabinet is populated with duds, Mr Cummings is a menace and the prime minister stumbles from avoidable debacle to foreseeable disaster. The vast bank of political capital that he built up with his party by winning for them has drained away with sensational rapidity.
In the latest ConservativeHome survey of what activists think of the cabinet, the prime minister comes in 24th out of 25. The education secretary is the only cabinet member with a worse approval rating. That’s the verdict of Tory members on their own prime minister: “not quite as useless as Gavin Williamson”.
One senior Tory who voted to install him in Number 10 now laments: “I’m afraid Boris is simply not a good prime minister.” Who knew?
This is starting to remind me a lot of some of the posts during the 2019GE. Throughout the polling indicated a comfortable Tory win, but right to the end people were posting “clever” explanations of why that wouldn’t be the case.
To be fair, it’s a cleverish set of reasons why the unlikely is not impossible.
That’s why I have a certain amount of insurance on a narrow Trump win, the cost of which doesn’t make much of a dent in my prospective Trump loss winnings.
A lot of us who were more comfortable after the debate, are less so after Trump's hospitalisation. A sympathy vote for Trump, or even in the event, a sympathy vote for Pence seems quite likely.
Johnson was the dry-run for this situation. A very short term gain, but the window of opportunity is just the right size to accommodate Trump/Pence.
No, I think that's overly fearful. I understand that most sane people want the bastard out of the door asap and there is a worry that this development could obstruct the process but I think the likeliest outcome is that he recovers fairly quickly and resumes his disatrous campaign. I'm not sure why that should earn him a sympathy vote, and of course any evidence of diminution in his faculties will count heavily against him.
Death would be a different matter and is too complicated and unpleasant to contemplate on a lazy Sunday morning but that's big odds against, even for a fat 75 year old with some bad habits and bizarre ideas about medication. Also, my friend Toby says his place is pretty full at he moment and he has no need for further furnace-stokers. So let's assume and hope he gets better.
Sigh. Even a competent government would struggle to come up with sensible policies in the face of this quality of data.
Aiui this is integrating university run testing into the government statistics. Universities have got in house facilities to run highly accurate PCR tests so don't make use of the government programme which can be slow or unavailable.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
We were down town for coffee and cake yesterday morning (the medal, I believe, is in the post) and it was genuinely startling how many shops, cafes and small businesses are now clearly gone for good. In the main shopping streets in Dundee I would say that coming on for a quarter of all shop premises are now boarded up. So far the larger chains are still there but if they start to fold as well we face devastation along with the loss of so much employment. The economic consequences of overly prescriptive policies which make having a viable business simply impossible are going to be with us longer than the virus.
Not just the economic consequences, @DavidL. There are social and human consequences as well.
I know and they are even more troubling. Those of us who are old enough to remember the horrific social costs of the early 90s recession with huge structural unemployment know that it takes a generation for society to recover. So many people, especially middle aged men, put on the scrap heap and left with shortened and unhealthy lives. The jobs miracle of the last decade had finally removed most of those scars but I fear we are heading back.
The unemployment this time is likely to affect the young predominantly. People like my children - in their 20’s, starting out, full of hope and ideas and plans, and simply stuffed.
Anecdotally, Daughter says that she has more difficulty with getting older customers to stick to the rules re mask-wearing when moving around the pub, for instance. She finds it infuriating - not just because it makes her job harder (she didn’t go into this to become the fun police) but because it puts her at risk (of losing her licence, being fined etc) and because those restrictions are there to protect those customers.
I am a fan of Sumption and agree with much that he says but his view that the old can determine whether they are willing to take the risk for the sake of living a more normal life seems somewhat myopic to me in that it ignores the consequences for everyone else.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
Sunak's more recent economic Covid strategies don't appear to be the work of the political and economic genius, as he is portrayed in the media, and on here.
There seem to be significant gaps in the targeting of sectors which were viable before Covid and will be viable once Covid is beaten. The 20% universal furlough is no more than a band aid to repair a severed limb.
Who pays? Well the debt is so astronomical, and already unrepayable, I say in for a penny, in for a pound.
I am not a Sunak fan. He’s better than other Cabinet Ministers. But his latest economic plan is a worthless mess.
I see in Ashcroft polling that Sunak is only on +2 approval. 2 more than Starmer, but not much of a lead.
Yes Scott. Anyone who isn't a braindead extremist understands that the Government is trying to do a balancing act of saving lives and saving the economy and isn't going all-in for one while ignoring the other completely. That letting either plate drop causes harm to the other, if the economy is completely trashed then lives will be lost. If public health collapses the economy will be trashed. So its about balancing both.
Oh, I can see why you're the one struggling to understand that.
"One senior Tory who voted to install him in Number 10 now laments: “I’m afraid Boris is simply not a good prime minister.”
An outrageous slur. As HYUFD frequently reminds us Shagger won a majority of 80 and will deliver unto the red wall the loss of their livelihoods which they voted for in giving him a majority of 80. So how can he be useless when he won a majority of 80 and has a majority of 80 and did you know that he has an 80-seat majority?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
I think that he is self indulgent and has relatively little concept of a complete story arc but he is also a visual genius that creates almost magical and memorable scenes that you never forget. So I am not dissing him as such.
And quhat do they clep a quorter-punder wi crowdie in Edinburgh?
I find that the more you rewatch it the more you realise that it is actually a coherent and tightly-plotted whole, just with the bits out of order, rather than half a dozen sketches. Though we could lose the whole watch thing.
I see New Caledonia is having a second independence referendum in two years, with a further one in another in 2022 if No wins. Parts of Old Caledonia may be a little jealous!
New Caledonia is one of the few remaining French colonies overseas, Scotland is part of the UK there is a difference and France has no direct jurisdiction over New Caledonia in the way Westminster has over Scotland, on that basis if you want to compare comparisons Catalonia, where Madrid have blocked even 1 independence referendum would be better or Quebec whose second independence referendum was 15 years after the first.
Plus polls show New Caledonia will reject independence anyway
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
I think that he is self indulgent and has relatively little concept of a complete story arc but he is also a visual genius that creates almost magical and memorable scenes that you never forget. So I am not dissing him as such.
What is the last scene chronologically in Pulp Fiction? The one where Butch says ‘Zed’s dead’ and rides off on his chopper?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
Sunak's more recent economic Covid strategies don't appear to be the work of the political and economic genius, as he is portrayed in the media, and on here.
There seem to be significant gaps in the targeting of sectors which were viable before Covid and will be viable once Covid is beaten. The 20% universal furlough is no more than a band aid to repair a severed limb.
Who pays? Well the debt is so astronomical, and already unrepayable, I say in for a penny, in for a pound.
I am not a Sunak fan. He’s better than other Cabinet Ministers. But his latest economic plan is a worthless mess.
I see in Ashcroft polling that Sunak is only on +2 approval. 2 more than Starmer, but not much of a lead.
On Bozo: In my poll, the words most often chosen to describe him were “out of his depth” and “incompetent.”
This is starting to remind me a lot of some of the posts during the 2019GE. Throughout the polling indicated a comfortable Tory win, but right to the end people were posting “clever” explanations of why that wouldn’t be the case.
No 2019 poll had the Tory lead falling to just 3% as IBID TIPP had Biden's lead falling to last week and Corbyn lost even in 2017, Trump won in 2016
IBD/TIPP Had Trump winning the popular vote by 2% in 2016
Or to put it another way they had a 7 point miss on the Clinton vote.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
My daughter is going to see Pulp Fiction at the cinema on Tuesday in Edinburgh. It's a shameful to admit as a father but she has never seen it and is keen to see it on the big screen. I do miss the cinematic experience. I haven't been since February.
You are in for a treat.
Pulp Fiction is a good clean family film with lots of biblical quotes in it.
I'm not going. Its a mess of a movie but contains so many truly brilliant scenes that it is more than worth the effort.
Dissing Quentin Tarantino is akin to putting pineapple on my pizza.
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
I think that he is self indulgent and has relatively little concept of a complete story arc but he is also a visual genius that creates almost magical and memorable scenes that you never forget. So I am not dissing him as such.
What is the last scene chronologically in Pulp Fiction? The one where Butch says ‘Zed’s dead’ and rides off on his chopper?
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
I see cineworld are closing all their cinemas forthwith . Feel sorry for an important mass and cheap entertainment industry but who wants to pay a tenner to wear a facemask for 2 hours?
Expect long browse shops like bookshops to go next .
For Trump to win he needs to win FL and all of PA, MI and WI. FL certainly seems possible but he is underwater in the other three - I can really only see him winning through “shenanigans” if there is a close result.
Biden has led Trump in head to head polling since 2017 - we are talking of a polling error many times worse than 2016 for Trump to win. And even if the polls are wrong, it’s possible of course that they could be wrong in Biden’s direction.
No, Trump needs to win FL and only 1 of PA, MI and WI, it is Biden who needs to win all 3 of the latter, not Trump
That's true although at the moment it only about even money on Biden taking all four. Gonna be difficult interpreting the polls though until the situation with Trump's health clarifies, and of course we won't be helped by the customary stream of lies coming out of the White House.
I suspect that for the next couple of weeks, Hyufd, even your guess will be as good as anybody's.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
If Trump loses narrowly he will likely run again in 2024 and probably win the nomination again.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
If I'm crossing the road I stop, look both directions first and only cross when its safe to do so. Common sense, not fear.
I don't just stand their as a quivering wreck thinking I could be killed if I cross the road and get hit and be too terrified to move, nor do I simply step onto the road into the path of an oncoming bus because I didn't bother to look first.
Does Trump getting coronavirus help him/Republicans? Probably: He gets sympathy/attacks on him seem unfair People rally round the head of state If he dies Pence wins on sympathy vote. If he recovers he says he beat the virus, but Biden wouldn't be able to.
It's far from obvious that it helps him directly. You may be right but there are also plenty of plausible counter arguments to yours, that could conceiveably cause opinion to harden against him, and besides the pandemic and his mishandling of it will now remain centre stage to the end.
What it does though is shake things up in an unknown way in a race where he badly needed to shake things up, because he was heading for a pretty humiliating defeat in the absence of a black swan event. So it helps him indirectly by allowing him to play double or quits, injecting a bit of uncertainty into what was becoming a more certain outcome by the day.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
The Tesco share price is down since covid-19 but not so much as more discretionary spend industries. i think sales are overall fine (includes online) but extra costs for covid-19 and staff to police them means margins not the same. Tesco will survive but the likes of cineworld , waterstones,pubs etc will not unless we ditch the useless mask and 10pm curfew policy
I see cineworld are closing all their cinemas forthwith . Feel sorry for an important mass and cheap entertainment industry but who wants to pay a tenner to wear a facemask for 2 hours?
Expect long browse shops like bookshops to go next .
Waterstones in Leicester seem to be doing good trade.
I see cineworld are closing all their cinemas forthwith . Feel sorry for an important mass and cheap entertainment industry but who wants to pay a tenner to wear a facemask for 2 hours?
Expect long browse shops like bookshops to go next .
Waterstones in Leicester seem to be doing good trade.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
Sunak's more recent economic Covid strategies don't appear to be the work of the political and economic genius, as he is portrayed in the media, and on here.
There seem to be significant gaps in the targeting of sectors which were viable before Covid and will be viable once Covid is beaten. The 20% universal furlough is no more than a band aid to repair a severed limb.
Who pays? Well the debt is so astronomical, and already unrepayable, I say in for a penny, in for a pound.
I am not a Sunak fan. He’s better than other Cabinet Ministers. But his latest economic plan is a worthless mess.
I see in Ashcroft polling that Sunak is only on +2 approval. 2 more than Starmer, but not much of a lead.
On Bozo: In my poll, the words most often chosen to describe him were “out of his depth” and “incompetent.”
7/10 of the Lab>Tory switchers prefer him to Starmer though. Some strange churn going on I guess
Boris on Marr says 6 years is not a generation and 2014 was a once in a generation vote so confirms he will not grant indyref2 as PM
If you (and Johnson) keep repeating the same thing over and over again, maybe it magically becomes true.
All this assertion does is re-write the historical headline on Mr Johnson's behalf by implying Johnson's successor will be responsible for losing Scotland.
It won't work. It is like offering the defence; "I shot the victim ten times, but ultimately his heart stopped beating, so he died of a heart attack not gunshot wounds, therefore I am not guilty".
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
Tesco won though as we bought them on the walk back. The small one on Heath Street has a surprisingly decent selection.
Tesco isn't winning. Can I ask which kind of Tesco you bought the wine from? Because every format of Tesco is absolutely haemorrhaging shoppers. The best performing Tesco store format is superstore which has lost a mere 18% of shoppers compared to last year.
Won't a lot of business have decamped to Tesco online? We know they have added deliveries and recruited new drivers.
Yes, online is +59%. Which is the worst of both worlds for all of these supermarket chains. They have all the costs of running bricks and mortar stores that significantly fewer people now shop in. And have significantly increased demand for an online business that nobody in the industry has found a way to not be loss-making.
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
If I'm crossing the road I stop, look both directions first and only cross when its safe to do so. Common sense, not fear.
I don't just stand their as a quivering wreck thinking I could be killed if I cross the road and get hit and be too terrified to move, nor do I simply step onto the road into the path of an oncoming bus because I didn't bother to look first.
It means ‘Act like a grown up’ and is a plea for people to be responsible and use their own wisdom and judgement rather than a child like need for adult guidance from state authority figures
Last year, Johnson stormed to victory by attracting both Brexit-backing voters in former Labour heartlands and culturally different voters, including many remainers, who were not only horrified at the idea of Prime Minister Corbyn but worried that Labour would bankrupt the country. With Brexit all but done, Corbyn consigned to history and austerity all but repudiated by the Tories themselves, that will be a much harder trick to pull off next time.
The poll is a really good read, with something to reflect on for all sides. Key points IMO:
* Labour is now 6 points ahead on a forced choice question of "Labour with Starmer or Conservatives with Johnson". * The public broadly supports the virus restrictions or feels they should be stronger, but are annoyed by the unclear and inconsistent messaging. They think Labour would have done a bit better, but are resistant to too much carping. * Starmer is going down well outside the party, with LibDems especially impressed but Lab-Con switchers also somewhat open to him. He's doing OK with Labour supporters but not blown away. * Anneliese Dodds is not making an impact on any group so far. * Lab-Con switchers are pretty close to Tories overall - they are harder to persuade than the general public (people like to justify a difficult switch to themselves, I think) * The LibDems are adrift. Half of their voters plan to vote Labour next time. Few people much rate Davey. Nor are the Greens really getting anywhere, unlike Germany. I think Labour should be able to get the vast majority of anti-Con votes in Con-Lab marginals if this picture persists.
The news that Cineworld are to mothball their entire business is really bad. OK yes, they may be able to restart operations at some point next year. But I assume they will fire everyone barring a few in head office and maintenance. Their comment that their business is no longer viable can be said for cinema as a whole - will big studios invest in big productions if they aren't likely to get the return they are expecting?
The consequences of zero COVID policies. This was inevitable and will be for a lot of other businesses because older people are once again proving themselves as the most selfish generation.
No, cinemas are open. The problem is that no one is going, partly from covid fears and partly that there is nothing to see.
It is not government policy that is the problem, it is the pandemic.
In our local town there is a small theatre which is on the comedy and music circuit, particularly those who try out their acts before appearing at large venues. We get to see all the acts at half the price (at least) and in a more intimate setting.
It has reopened, with socially distanced seating etc. All the acts have been booked for the next few months and, like last night, they are sold out. People do want to go out and enjoy themselves and have some sort of social life, even with a pandemic.
Maybe Cumbrians are hardier folk than you soft Midlanders and Southerners. I dunno! But people do still want to have a life.
People absolutely want to go out here as well. The 9:30 last orders bell got a lot of groans last night and we all just ended up in my front room until 1am and finished off four bottles of wine between the six of us.
Yes - and the profits on those 4 bottles of wine is being lost to businesses like my daughter’s and others, every night. Those businesses suffer and the chances of those groups drinking in living-rooms practising social distancing and taking all the protective steps venues have to are probably lower than they ought to be. So we get damaged or dead businesses and continued Covid. Just brilliant!
I got persuaded to go to the pub with a couple of friends on Friday night "whilst we still can". Only in there for a couple of hours. A pub barely half full thanks to table spacing. Order drinks via a new app. Stick a mask on to go to the loo. Last orders at 9:30 and "can you drink up please" as they wanted the doors locked bang on 10.
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
I understand your concern. Daughter tries to do everything she can to make the experience pleasant: good food, friendly staff, a personal welcome etc etc.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
I can see how they would work during the day when the focus is on food. But as a night out with friends?
If I'm crossing the road I stop, look both directions first and only cross when its safe to do so. Common sense, not fear.
I don't just stand their as a quivering wreck thinking I could be killed if I cross the road and get hit and be too terrified to move, nor do I simply step onto the road into the path of an oncoming bus because I didn't bother to look first.
It means ‘Act like a grown up’ and is a plea for people to be responsible and use their own wisdom and judgement rather than a child like need for adult guidance from state authority figures
Some people want to be coddled like a toddler, drip fed everything.
Comments
My friend bought tickets to see Tenet, went into screen 7 and saw six people sat there, all with their masks off, and she left before the film started.
Almost all of it is simply further evidence that he is a grade one self-obsessed s**t
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1312673152842051584
Well apart from Kill Bill Vol II, that was so disappointing because Vol I was awesome.
The pro-independence side is heartened by the recent 90+% vote for independence from Papua New Guinea by nearby Bougainville, but I think France’s annual subsidy of €1.5billion will keep New Caledonia under the tricoleur.
The word that will be the defining epitaph on his woeful premiership.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/1312518653926010880
As I left, the weather was beginning to turn, and as it does eating out in the street and square will be replaced by people crowding inside cafes and restaurants. When you're eating you obviously have no mask, and given the Italians' love of an evening in the cafe, bar or trattoria, the potential risk is clear.
So history still favours Trump and is against Biden, though that does not mean Biden could do a Reagan 1980 the odds are very much against him on that front.
However on current polling it does look more likely than not than Biden will win but remember IBID TIPP had a Biden lead of only 3% last week, if that was correct then on UNS Biden would only pick up Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin from 2016 and if any of those went back to Trump it would be enough for Trump to be re elected.
Remember too gold standard 2016 rustbelt swing state pollster Trafalgar Group has had Biden ahead in all its Pennsylvania polls but Trump ahead in 1 of its 3 Michigan polls this year and Trump ahead in 2 out of 3 of its Wisconsin polls.
Of those 3 Wisconsin is the most likely to stay with Trump, it had the biggest lead of the 3 for Trump in 2016 and in 2004 Kerry won Wisconsin by only 0.38% compared to a Kerry lead of over 3% in Michigan and a Kerry lead of 2.5% in Pennsylvania for example, in 2012 it had a smaller Obama lead than Michigan, though slightly bigger than Pennsylvania. Plus while Michigan has 7 Democratic US representatives and 7 Republican representatives and Pennsylvania has 9 Democratic representatives and 9 Republican representatives, Wisconsin still has 5 Republican representatives and only 3 Democratic representatives even after the 2018 midterms. So clearly is the more Republican leaning of the states.
In the end it may all come down to the Badger State
Johnson was the dry-run for this situation. A very short term gain, but the window of opportunity is just the right size to accommodate Trump/Pence.
On-topic, Robert is right, we could be wrong. There are those on here who do, in all fairness, point up areas which suggest it's not all plain sailing for Biden - voter registration numbers, problems for Biden among the black and hispanic communities etc.
Yet, when I look at the polls, what strikes me time after time is the antipathy toward Trump from a significant minority, perhaps even a majority of the electorate. I fully accept those who support the President are committed to going out and voting for him but those who do not support the President, while not being as committed FOR Biden are equally committed AGAINST Trump.
It all screams high turnout highly polarised election but the notion of a 51-46 win for Biden in the popular vote is still where I am (roughly).
To move on from psephology to philosophy, the question becomes what will the Trump supporters do if their man is beaten narrowly. I've more or less discounted a Biden landslide and it may be that just as the EC flattered Trump in 2016, it might flatter Biden this time but if Trump gets about what he got last time but is on the wrong end of the result, what then?
I've thought the Transition could be very difficult - I don't think Trump takes defeat well though he's had plenty of practice in business to be fair. Those around him might be rushing to get their book deals and be the first to write the truth about life in the Trump White House and so on but what about the Trump voter in Kentucky, Kansas or Oklahoma?
Where do the Republicans go from here if they lose? I'm far from convinced Pence is Trump Mark 2 - he's been nothing but loyal to the President and that will do his prospects in the Party no harm but can he run on an avowedly socially conservative ticket in 2024 against (perhaps) Harris and expect to win the more liberal states? The demographics push and pull but IF Texas is moving Democrat an perhaps Georgia too, the EC mountain for the GOP becomes huge. Strength in the small states counts for nothing if the Democrats have a lock on 81 EC votes in the NE, 76 in the West and perhaps 38 in Texas. Add in a few others and the White House is almost in sight.
The Conservative Party in the UK has got where it has by constantly evolving and while one of its greatest heroes once opined on parties and principles, the truth is if you don't change, you die. The Republicans may also have to take a long hard look at some of its principles and see how they fit against having the power to enact anything.
Andrew Rawnsley
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/04/are-tory-mps-really-so-surprised-that-mr-johnson-is-a-poor-prime-minister
If you can’t see that Trump dying in office from covid is a potential tinderbox moment I’m not sure I can help. The US Culture War has for now been a metaphoric description but with each escalation in extremity and bedding down of division it increases the risk of it boiling over at some point in the coming decades.
The blunt truth is that cinema audiences in the UK have disappeared even though their core market (the under 30s) apparently have no problems infecting each other on an industrial scale around Britain's pubs and the Mediterranean's beaches. But they don't want to go to Britain's cinemas - because they're ghastly dumps reeking of popcorn and there's virtually unlimited content on Netflix (and iPlayer).
Blaming Britain's struggling film industry on Covid mismanagement displays a romantic misconception of how film viewership has changed since Britons queued in the rain for the 1/9d seats to watch Alastair Sim
It seems to have sold a reasonable number of tickets on the online seating plan.
Kill Bill just needed a lot of editing to be one 150 minute movie, but Tarantino doesn’t like editing!
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1312675474112425986
I can't see how Trump doesn't get a polling boost in the next week or so.
I have my doubts whether it will continue until the election though - but that might just be wishful thinking.
Anecdotally, Daughter says that she has more difficulty with getting older customers to stick to the rules re mask-wearing when moving around the pub, for instance. She finds it infuriating - not just because it makes her job harder (she didn’t go into this to become the fun police) but because it puts her at risk (of losing her licence, being fined etc) and because those restrictions are there to protect those customers.
Sigh. Even a competent government would struggle to come up with sensible policies in the face of this quality of data.
Were all these wailing Tories not acquainted with a biography littered with scandals and pratfalls, betrayed colleagues and broken promises?
Just nine months later, it is now the common currency of Tory complaint that the cabinet is populated with duds, Mr Cummings is a menace and the prime minister stumbles from avoidable debacle to foreseeable disaster. The vast bank of political capital that he built up with his party by winning for them has drained away with sensational rapidity.
In the latest ConservativeHome survey of what activists think of the cabinet, the prime minister comes in 24th out of 25. The education secretary is the only cabinet member with a worse approval rating. That’s the verdict of Tory members on their own prime minister: “not quite as useless as Gavin Williamson”.
One senior Tory who voted to install him in Number 10 now laments: “I’m afraid Boris is simply not a good prime minister.” Who knew?
Death would be a different matter and is too complicated and unpleasant to contemplate on a lazy Sunday morning but that's big odds against, even for a fat 75 year old with some bad habits and bizarre ideas about medication. Also, my friend Toby says his place is pretty full at he moment and he has no need for further furnace-stokers. So let's assume and hope he gets better.
a) Some really worrying polling?
or
b) A history lesson?
Oh, I can see why you're the one struggling to understand that.
An outrageous slur. As HYUFD frequently reminds us Shagger won a majority of 80 and will deliver unto the red wall the loss of their livelihoods which they voted for in giving him a majority of 80. So how can he be useless when he won a majority of 80 and has a majority of 80 and did you know that he has an 80-seat majority?
I find that the more you rewatch it the more you realise that it is actually a coherent and tightly-plotted whole, just with the bits out of order, rather than half a dozen sketches. Though we could lose the whole watch thing.
Plus polls show New Caledonia will reject independence anyway
This could become crucial in this debate as we run into winter.
Or to put it another way they had a 7 point miss on the Clinton vote.
Expect long browse shops like bookshops to go next .
I suspect that for the next couple of weeks, Hyufd, even your guess will be as good as anybody's.
President Grover Cleveland narrowly lost his re election bid to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but came back to beat Harrison in 1892 and complete a second term so it has been done before.
Biden-Harris needs a landslide to ensure there is no resurrection of Trump
I'm not doing that again. Aside from the obvious risk of people in a room it wasn't remotely fun. We were doing Zoom drinks when the pubs were closed, and with how they now are we'e going back to it next time. Same with a work leaving do - yes a few of us can gather in my mate's garden pub. The rest? A buffet in the office then everyone home for virtual drinks is the plan. As opposed to off into town for a night out.
If I'm crossing the road I stop, look both directions first and only cross when its safe to do so. Common sense, not fear.
I don't just stand their as a quivering wreck thinking I could be killed if I cross the road and get hit and be too terrified to move, nor do I simply step onto the road into the path of an oncoming bus because I didn't bother to look first.
What it does though is shake things up in an unknown way in a race where he badly needed to shake things up, because he was heading for a pretty humiliating defeat in the absence of a black swan event. So it helps him indirectly by allowing him to play double or quits, injecting a bit of uncertainty into what was becoming a more certain outcome by the day.
to Starmer though. Some strange churn going on I guess
All this assertion does is re-write the historical headline on Mr Johnson's behalf by implying Johnson's successor will be responsible for losing Scotland.
It won't work. It is like offering the defence; "I shot the victim ten times, but ultimately his heart stopped beating, so he died of a heart attack not gunshot wounds, therefore I am not guilty".
The clear push from Asda and Tesco at least is for simplification. They are going to start significantly reducing the number of product lines they carry to try and strip cost from their business. Which will mean significant job losses over time across store staff, warehouses which will close, manufacturers who will go pop due to lost contracts etc etc. And thats before Brexit* fucks us.
"Just order online" would be fine if online was profitable. But it isn't. Punters cannot afford to pay the real oncosts for home delivery - the only possible save for the industry is that they can add a fiver to everyone's basket costs and disguise it under the big increase in the cost of everything post Brexit*.
*by Brexit I don't mean leaving the EU - we did that. I mean leaving the transition period at the end of the year. 2020 has been the phoney war - we declared war on Germany but haven't yet felt the impacts.
What really really annoys her (and me) is that pubs and restaurants are bearing the burden of these measures. They are having their businesses being killed by attrition. The benefits are for everyone. They are socialised. But the costs are privatised. This is the wrong way around.
If the benefits are for everyone then so should the costs be. The hospitality sector should continue to be supported while these restrictions are in place. But they’re not being. They’ve been thrown under a bus while being threatened more and more each day with more restrictions, more fines, inspections etc.
It is quite wrong and unfair. And I hope it comes back to bite the government in the bum big-time.
* Labour is now 6 points ahead on a forced choice question of "Labour with Starmer or Conservatives with Johnson".
* The public broadly supports the virus restrictions or feels they should be stronger, but are annoyed by the unclear and inconsistent messaging. They think Labour would have done a bit better, but are resistant to too much carping.
* Starmer is going down well outside the party, with LibDems especially impressed but Lab-Con switchers also somewhat open to him. He's doing OK with Labour supporters but not blown away.
* Anneliese Dodds is not making an impact on any group so far.
* Lab-Con switchers are pretty close to Tories overall - they are harder to persuade than the general public (people like to justify a difficult switch to themselves, I think)
* The LibDems are adrift. Half of their voters plan to vote Labour next time. Few people much rate Davey. Nor are the Greens really getting anywhere, unlike Germany. I think Labour should be able to get the vast majority of anti-Con votes in Con-Lab marginals if this picture persists.
What is wrong with thinking for yourself?