Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Why there won’t be a President Romney – politicalbetting.com

123457»

Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    Trumps doc is supposed to be making an update soon

    "Dr Conley who trained as an osteopath ..."

    How do we get out of this dystopia?
    Osteopaths are more known for their "bedside manner", aren't they?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    For a moment there I thought each doctor was merely going to introduce themselves and then the next doctor, all the way down to the most junior doctor who might actually have been able to give a slightly more coherent update than that.

    They all looked like the Doctor off the Simpsons....
    Zoidberg lookalikes would be more fun.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    What do Betfair rules say about them being able to suspend an in play market? Presumably main site rules not the specific markets one.

    Betfair reserves the right at its absolute discretion to part-suspend or fully suspend outcomes/selections in a Sportsbook or Fixed Odds market that has been turned in-play.

    But we're talking about the exchange, and the rules are quite clear there, plus the market hasn't turned in play yet.

    This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election.

    Unless I've been asleep for a month the day of the election isn't even close.
    Betfair reserves the right at any time in its sole and absolute discretion to suspend an Exchange market without suspending any corresponding or related Sportsbook or Fixed Odds market, or to suspend or stop offering a Sportsbook or Fixed Odds market without suspending any corresponding or related Exchange market.

    Betfair may, in its sole and absolute discretion, decide to suspend betting on a market at any time (even if such suspension is earlier than anticipated by the Exchange Rules). In the interests of maintaining integrity and fairness in the markets, Betfair may also void certain bets in a market or void a whole market in its entirety.
    But they've also factored in death and illness into this.

    'If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules.'

    So they aren't even sticking to their own rules.
    I think you're confusing the rules on suspending the markets and the rules on settling it.

    It may very well be annoying that they have suspended new bets at this point, but that's entirely within their Ts&Cs. Your contractual complaint only comes in if they refuse to settle a bet in your favour that ought to have been so settled under their rules.

    I think you were complaining earlier about them "cancelling" your unmatched bet. But it's unmatched - it isn't a bet, just an offer you'd made and nobody had accepted at the time of suspension.
    My betting strategy was based in part on at least one of the two main candidates having a health scare, which is reinforced by their death section, and the estoppel by convention they created when they didn't suspend the Dem nomination market when Sanders had his heart attack.

    I'm quite confident in my position, as I was when Betfair screwed up the TMay exit market, I'd rather not have to go to IBAS again, but I shall.
    Lord Denning is dead, mate!

    The door closed on ludicrous extensions of estoppel when he popped his clogs, and you've zero chance. Good luck trying to establish a convention on when they do and do not suspend a market based on illness when their terms are clear that they have absolute discretion on suspension.
    Betfair had absolute discretion on the Theresa May exit market and yet they were wrong but IBAS ruled they were wrong.

    Some enterprising chap pointed out they had created estoppels on when a leader quits when they paid out on Brown and Milliband E ceasing to be leader in May 2010 and May 2015 not when their successor was elected.
    Settling and suspending are two entirely different concepts.
    Indeed but they are creating a false market with these suspensions especially in light of their assertions that the markets would be settled even in the event of the death of a candidate.
    As you said earlier, it was not particularly unlikely that with a couple of septuagenarians as candidates, that at some point a health scare for one or other of them would be headline news.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Apparently Trump has given up taking hydroxychloroquine. What a fool the man is.

    Of course this proves how right the hydroxychloroquine advocates were.

    Enough said.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The timeline is questionable. If he tested positive 72 hrs ago that meant he did a campaign stop in New Jersey knowing he had the virus or did he exhibit symptoms then . When was his last negative test ? And he wasn’t tested before the first debate as they arrived late . Had they have done a test it’s likely he would have tested positive . So he could have put others at risk aswell as Joe Biden .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    I think in view of Trump's age and known medical condition, there's absolutely no need to set up artificial drama at this early stage. We can all see there is a very real chance he will die.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    nico679 said:

    The timeline is questionable. If he tested positive 72 hrs ago that meant he did a campaign stop in New Jersey knowing he had the virus or did he exhibit symptoms then . When was his last negative test ? And he wasn’t tested before the first debate as they arrived late . Had they have done a test it’s likely he would have tested positive . So he could have put others at risk aswell as Joe Biden .

    If true, even more irresponsible than we thought.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Sexts and coronavirus: Must-win Senate race upended down the stretch
    Democrat Cal Cunningham admitted Friday to sending intimate texts to a woman, hours after GOP Sen. Thom Tillis tested positive for Covid-19.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/cal-cunningham-texts-north-carolina-425810

  • moonshine said:

    Was that guy a medical doctor or a spin doctor? Ridiculous repeated non answer to whether oxygen support had been given at any time.

    Sounded more spin than substance

    I am very sceptical on their press conference
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    moonshine said:

    Was that guy a medical doctor or a spin doctor? Ridiculous repeated non answer to whether oxygen support had been given at any time.

    Sounded more spin than substance

    I am very sceptical on their press conference
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312426079337033732?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Chris said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    I think in view of Trump's age and known medical condition, there's absolutely no need to set up artificial drama at this early stage. We can all see there is a very real chance he will die.
    Of course it could genuinely develop that way. But right now my strong sense is that they are playing it up rather than down.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Fck me.

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1312329626044313601?s=20

    I thought Hopkins would be the first UK media loonball to go full QAnon, but we have a hot new favourite.

    And if these mums get an early inheritance as a result of their kids infecting granny, then all the better.
    It is loopy. OTOH, Granny will be at the front of the queue for the vaccine, should (pray God) an effective one be found, and kids will be at the back. So if some parents are going to dig their heels in anyway then there is an argument for just leaving them alone.
    Not all the Grannies and Grandads (and, for that matter, Dads, Mums, Uncles, Aunts, bus-drivers, shopkeepers, and so on) will be able to take a vaccine. There's always a non-negligible percentage who medically cannot take vaccines.

    Not all of those vaccinated will be fully protected. Very few vaccines have 100% efficacy.

    If 80% of people are vaccinated with an 80% efficacy vaccine, herd immunity will kick in. If under-19s are exempted, we won't get that close to that.

    Some Grannies and Grandads - and the rest of the higher vulnerability people - will still be exposed. If Pearson and the other antivaxxer loons get their way.

    ("Children aren't harmed by covid"? Tell that to anyone who had their kid in ICU. Yes, the vast majority of them recovered (even the ones with invasive ventilation), but most of their parents wouldn't see this as a harmless virus for children.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    moonshine said:

    Was that guy a medical doctor or a spin doctor? Ridiculous repeated non answer to whether oxygen support had been given at any time.

    Sounded more spin than substance

    I am very sceptical on their press conference
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312426079337033732?s=20
    Anything this administration claims requires independent verification.
    For now the truth is anyone’s guess.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    To be fair, I think the fact that they're agreeing to extend talks and do so slightly more intensively is good news all told. The stupidity of fishing being so totemic to France and the UK really gets my goat though. No deal will kill the fishing industry deader than a deal that's unfavourable to them. I suspect we'll compromise on that with a fig leaf to get more on state aid.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Was that guy a medical doctor or a spin doctor? Ridiculous repeated non answer to whether oxygen support had been given at any time.

    Sounded more spin than substance

    I am very sceptical on their press conference
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312426079337033732?s=20
    Anything this administration claims requires independent verification.
    For now the truth is anyone’s guess.
    The doctors words are already being carefully dissected:

    https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1312428277907288064?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    A pity as Romney being a Republican yet having voted to impeach Trump but still sending his prayers for the Trumps recovery yesterday is probably one of the few potential Presidents who might be acceptable to both Democrats and Republicans at the moment.

    He is also one of the most able candidates to ever have run for President, having top grades from Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School and an extremely successful business career before he entered politics which made him hundreds of millions of dollars as well as being a deeply moral man, a leader in the Mormon Church and married to his wife Ann for 51 years without a hint of scandal.

    He is certainly the most able nominee the Republicans have had since Bush Snr, his misfortune in 2012 was to be up against Obama seeking re election, a grade A candidate, in any other year he would had a good chance to win and he is certainly more able than Trump or Biden will be for the office

    Biden's 22 minute speech in Grand Rapids yesterday was awesome. On that speech alone we have clearly been sold a lie that he is nothing more than a demented old fool.
    Should we be concerned though about the reports that Biden has suspended negative campaign ads, but Republicans are barrelling on full steam ahead?
    The Trump campaign's argument was Biden's speech attacked the record of the administration still so they will keep running negative ads in return
    Just vicious by Biden. Inexscusable.
    https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1312192506910572544
    I see Biden like Starmer is focusing on taxing the rich more
    A Conservative economist on Radio 4, can't remember who, suggested yesterday, that QE and spending cuts have already been optimised, so to pay for the pandemic and the aftermath, tax rises are the only viable solution.

    So I guess, who do we tax? The rich or the poor. You seem to be implying it should be the poor.
    There’s plenty of spending still to be ‘optimised’. Tax rises simply hold growth down on the way out of the recession.

    Hopefully the pandemic and accompanying recession will encourage governments to think outside the box, both in terms of what they do and how they pay for it.
    "Tax rises simply hold growth down on the way out of the recession".

    It depends who and how you tax.
    It really doesn’t. Every pound taken in tax is a pound removed from circulation in the economy.

    Surely that depends on what the tax is spent on?

    I'd argue that every pound cut from public spending is a pound removed from circulation.
    Amazing how those who talk of complexity suddenly arrive at simplicity.
    The British Empire. A Wealth Tax. The impact of private schools on inequality. These things are all "very complicated". :smile:
  • Proper northern weather for the leeds game...
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Fck me.

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1312329626044313601?s=20

    I thought Hopkins would be the first UK media loonball to go full QAnon, but we have a hot new favourite.

    And if these mums get an early inheritance as a result of their kids infecting granny, then all the better.
    It is loopy. OTOH, Granny will be at the front of the queue for the vaccine, should (pray God) an effective one be found, and kids will be at the back. So if some parents are going to dig their heels in anyway then there is an argument for just leaving them alone.
    Not all the Grannies and Grandads (and, for that matter, Dads, Mums, Uncles, Aunts, bus-drivers, shopkeepers, and so on) will be able to take a vaccine. There's always a non-negligible percentage who medically cannot take vaccines.

    Not all of those vaccinated will be fully protected. Very few vaccines have 100% efficacy.

    If 80% of people are vaccinated with an 80% efficacy vaccine, herd immunity will kick in. If under-19s are exempted, we won't get that close to that.

    Some Grannies and Grandads - and the rest of the higher vulnerability people - will still be exposed. If Pearson and the other antivaxxer loons get their way.

    ("Children aren't harmed by covid"? Tell that to anyone who had their kid in ICU. Yes, the vast majority of them recovered (even the ones with invasive ventilation), but most of their parents wouldn't see this as a harmless virus for children.)
    If I'd had COVID before I had my heart condition fixed when I was a kid I'm not sure what would have happened. Possibly cardiac disability or a transplant. Not the nicest of thoughts. I'm already nervous with the far less serious residuals from that operation.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    Hmm. Must admit that I was very suspicious yesterday, as I posted. But I now tend to think this is pretty straight up, with all the other positives in his coterie.

    I took from the update that they made sure he wasn`t on oxygen today so that they could answer the question truthfully that they knew would come up on that matter. But he was on oxygen yesterday at some point and the medic was under instruction not to admit this.

    So, rather than deliberately making out he`s worse than he his, they are giving the most optimistic report. Maybe I`ve been taken in?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Fck me.

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1312329626044313601?s=20

    I thought Hopkins would be the first UK media loonball to go full QAnon, but we have a hot new favourite.

    And if these mums get an early inheritance as a result of their kids infecting granny, then all the better.
    It is loopy. OTOH, Granny will be at the front of the queue for the vaccine, should (pray God) an effective one be found, and kids will be at the back. So if some parents are going to dig their heels in anyway then there is an argument for just leaving them alone.
    Not all the Grannies and Grandads (and, for that matter, Dads, Mums, Uncles, Aunts, bus-drivers, shopkeepers, and so on) will be able to take a vaccine. There's always a non-negligible percentage who medically cannot take vaccines.

    Not all of those vaccinated will be fully protected. Very few vaccines have 100% efficacy.

    If 80% of people are vaccinated with an 80% efficacy vaccine, herd immunity will kick in. If under-19s are exempted, we won't get that close to that.

    Some Grannies and Grandads - and the rest of the higher vulnerability people - will still be exposed. If Pearson and the other antivaxxer loons get their way.

    ("Children aren't harmed by covid"? Tell that to anyone who had their kid in ICU. Yes, the vast majority of them recovered (even the ones with invasive ventilation), but most of their parents wouldn't see this as a harmless virus for children.)
    Did anyone notice the ONS survey figures, showing a large rise in cases in school years 7-11 over the past few weeks? Not quite the picture that was painted when schools reopened.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    Trumps doc is supposed to be making an update soon

    "Dr Conley who trained as an osteopath ..."

    How do we get out of this dystopia?
    Osteopaths are more known for their "bedside manner", aren't they?
    It’s not uncommon for doctors here in the US to train as DO rather than MD as the course is a bit shorter and cheaper.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    538 has just reduced Trump to 19% chance of winning - lowest ever.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Is there a market giving betting odds on No-Deal?
  • Proper northern weather for the leeds game...

    Still not big coat weather.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    MikeL said:

    538 has just reduced Trump to 19% chance of winning - lowest ever.

    Presumably because of the PA poll? Silver mentioned a couple of weeks ago that because it's the most likely 270th vote then any good or bad polls for Biden there tend to move the scales around a fair bit.
  • Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Was that guy a medical doctor or a spin doctor? Ridiculous repeated non answer to whether oxygen support had been given at any time.

    Sounded more spin than substance

    I am very sceptical on their press conference
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312426079337033732?s=20
    Anything this administration claims requires independent verification.
    For now the truth is anyone’s guess.
    The doctors words are already being carefully dissected:

    https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1312428277907288064?s=20
    Anyone who has no oxygen for 10 minutes let alone a whole day will be lucky not to be dead imo
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    Proper northern weather for the leeds game...

    Still not big coat weather.
    What's a coat?

    You'd never see one on a night out in The Toon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Proper northern weather for the leeds game...

    Still not big coat weather.
    It is always "big coat" weather up North.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Was that guy a medical doctor or a spin doctor? Ridiculous repeated non answer to whether oxygen support had been given at any time.

    Sounded more spin than substance

    I am very sceptical on their press conference
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312426079337033732?s=20
    Anything this administration claims requires independent verification.
    For now the truth is anyone’s guess.
    I'm afraid this is the case. It's not good in a medical situation to have to be speculating not on whether they are lying but exactly how they are lying but such is the legacy of this administration. (i) Has not had oxygen at all but giving the impression that he has. (ii) Has dire need of oxygen but giving the impression that he doesn't. I lean to (i) but it could be (ii). Could be something else. Whatever, I hope it clarifies soon.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    I don't think main doctor guy could have been any less subtle.

    "Has he ever needed oxygen?"
    "He's not on oxygen today"
    "But has he ever needed oxygen?"
    "He's not on oxygen TODAY"

    Then give a shrug that says "I don't know why this person can't understand my answer"

    Bizarre. May as well have winked at the cameras.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited October 2020

    Proper northern weather for the leeds game...

    Still not big coat weather.
    It is always "big coat" weather up North.
    The big coat is only worn there's at least six inches of snow or horizontal rain.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,412
    "Not a clear path to full recovery" says Chief of Staff Meadows.
    To muddy the waters further.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    OnboardG1 said:

    MikeL said:

    538 has just reduced Trump to 19% chance of winning - lowest ever.

    Presumably because of the PA poll? Silver mentioned a couple of weeks ago that because it's the most likely 270th vote then any good or bad polls for Biden there tend to move the scales around a fair bit.
    And still BF is shut for business.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Chris said:

    Fck me.

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1312329626044313601?s=20

    I thought Hopkins would be the first UK media loonball to go full QAnon, but we have a hot new favourite.

    And if these mums get an early inheritance as a result of their kids infecting granny, then all the better.
    It is loopy. OTOH, Granny will be at the front of the queue for the vaccine, should (pray God) an effective one be found, and kids will be at the back. So if some parents are going to dig their heels in anyway then there is an argument for just leaving them alone.
    Not all the Grannies and Grandads (and, for that matter, Dads, Mums, Uncles, Aunts, bus-drivers, shopkeepers, and so on) will be able to take a vaccine. There's always a non-negligible percentage who medically cannot take vaccines.

    Not all of those vaccinated will be fully protected. Very few vaccines have 100% efficacy.

    If 80% of people are vaccinated with an 80% efficacy vaccine, herd immunity will kick in. If under-19s are exempted, we won't get that close to that.

    Some Grannies and Grandads - and the rest of the higher vulnerability people - will still be exposed. If Pearson and the other antivaxxer loons get their way.

    ("Children aren't harmed by covid"? Tell that to anyone who had their kid in ICU. Yes, the vast majority of them recovered (even the ones with invasive ventilation), but most of their parents wouldn't see this as a harmless virus for children.)
    Did anyone notice the ONS survey figures, showing a large rise in cases in school years 7-11 over the past few weeks? Not quite the picture that was painted when schools reopened.
    That's more alarming when you realise that one of the higher risk factors of needing ICU support and ventilation amongst hospitalised children was being in the age range of 10-14 years old.

    Yes, children are significantly less likely to need hospitalisation than adults. Less likely does not mean "unharmed," Ms Pearson. It does mean that if your child does end up on a ventilator, he or she is far more likely to end up pulling through (sometimes with the help of heart drugs) than adults are.

    (Oh, and nearly half of all children who needed ICU had no co-morbidities at all)

    If your child IS one of the less fortunate who end up needing hospitalisation, he or she has just over a one in six chance of needing ventilation in an ICU.

    "... children, who are unharmed by covid, ..."


    Give me strength.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Proper northern weather for the leeds game...

    Still not big coat weather.
    It is always "big coat" weather up North.
    The big coat is only worn there's at least six inches of snow or horizontal rain.
    Exactly!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    White House raises new questions about Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis
    Members of Trump’s medical team said it had been 72 hours since Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19, earlier than the White House has said.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/trump-hospital-covid-health-425840
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    Hmm. Must admit that I was very suspicious yesterday, as I posted. But I now tend to think this is pretty straight up, with all the other positives in his coterie.

    I took from the update that they made sure he wasn`t on oxygen today so that they could answer the question truthfully that they knew would come up on that matter. But he was on oxygen yesterday at some point and the medic was under instruction not to admit this.

    So, rather than deliberately making out he`s worse than he his, they are giving the most optimistic report. Maybe I`ve been taken in?
    Everything this WH tells us his utter crap frankly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Wakefield defender warns about "breakdown of trust between science & public"

    https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1311929269132681216?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    OnboardG1 said:

    MikeL said:

    538 has just reduced Trump to 19% chance of winning - lowest ever.

    Presumably because of the PA poll? Silver mentioned a couple of weeks ago that because it's the most likely 270th vote then any good or bad polls for Biden there tend to move the scales around a fair bit.
    I think Wisconsin or Michigan are more likely the 270th vote, polling now shows them closer than Pennsylvania.

    Biden now leads by 5.7% in Pennsylvania on average, 5.5% in Wisconsin on average and 5.2% in Michigan on average.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

    Nevada is now closer than Pennsylvania too, Biden leads by 5.3% there
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_biden-6867.html
  • Wakefield defender warns about "breakdown of trust between science & public"

    https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1311929269132681216?s=20

    Please, it's The Wakefield and Roy Meadows defender.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Slate has a couple of headlines...

    Electoral Chaos Might Ensue if Biden or Trump Is Forced Out of the Race
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/trump-positive-what-happens-if-candidate-incapacitated-or-dies.html

    It’s Time for Trump to Resign and Drop Out of the Race
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/donald-trump-should-drop-out-of-the-presidential-race-and-resign.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Wakefield defender warns about "breakdown of trust between science & public"

    https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1311929269132681216?s=20

    Please, it's The Wakefield and Roy Meadows defender.
    A major source of the breakdown in trust would be scientists who spin exponential graphs as the route of the current uptick in cases knowing full well that their mumbled mutterings about this just being an example of what might happen would be drowned out by the sodding great graphic on the screen.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    I see no reason for the BF markets to still be suspended following the very encouraging medical update just given. (Whether you believe it or not.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Nigelb said:

    White House raises new questions about Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis
    Members of Trump’s medical team said it had been 72 hours since Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19, earlier than the White House has said.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/trump-hospital-covid-health-425840

    They can't even lie effectively any more.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    Hmm. Must admit that I was very suspicious yesterday, as I posted. But I now tend to think this is pretty straight up, with all the other positives in his coterie.

    I took from the update that they made sure he wasn`t on oxygen today so that they could answer the question truthfully that they knew would come up on that matter. But he was on oxygen yesterday at some point and the medic was under instruction not to admit this.

    So, rather than deliberately making out he`s worse than he his, they are giving the most optimistic report. Maybe I`ve been taken in?
    No, you could be right. It could be me being overly suspicious. Let's see how it plays out. Let's see if they create an impression it's bad but he's "fighting" and then he pulls through looking fine and hot to trot in plenty of time for the election.

    I agree he IS positive for corona. My doubt on that point went away on further reflection.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Proper northern weather for the leeds game...

    Still not big coat weather.
    It is always "big coat" weather up North.
    The big coat is only worn there's at least six inches of snow or horizontal rain.
    But it’s the fine rain that really soaks you through
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    Trumps doc is supposed to be making an update soon

    "Dr Conley who trained as an osteopath ..."

    How do we get out of this dystopia?
    Osteopaths are more known for their "bedside manner", aren't they?
    It’s not uncommon for doctors here in the US to train as DO rather than MD as the course is a bit shorter and cheaper.
    DOs tend also to approach treatment more holistically than do MDs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Does the US really want four more years of this bunch of clowns ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OnboardG1 said:

    MikeL said:

    538 has just reduced Trump to 19% chance of winning - lowest ever.

    Presumably because of the PA poll? Silver mentioned a couple of weeks ago that because it's the most likely 270th vote then any good or bad polls for Biden there tend to move the scales around a fair bit.
    Important point of the Sienna polls is that they have really solid HS or less sampling. Much higher percentage than the 2016 exit polls said voted in those states.

    That makes them very reliable in my eyes. Here have been other Biden leads in those states with comically low HS or less cohorts that I've binned but these seem solid.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimT said:

    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    Trumps doc is supposed to be making an update soon

    "Dr Conley who trained as an osteopath ..."

    How do we get out of this dystopia?
    Osteopaths are more known for their "bedside manner", aren't they?
    It’s not uncommon for doctors here in the US to train as DO rather than MD as the course is a bit shorter and cheaper.
    DOs tend also to approach treatment more holistically than do MDs.
    @ Chris, he did not train as an osteopath (a bone doctor) but as a DO (osteopathic physician), which is just another form of medical training fully equivalent to the MD
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Does the US really want four more years of this bunch of clowns ?

    Well only one party in the last 100 years has lost the White House after only 1 term, the Democrats in 1980 when Carter lost to Reagan, so historically the odds still favour Trump even if Biden is ahead
  • Well despite daily testing the American Hand Egg is suffering lots of covid outbreaks now. The club owners vetoed the idea of copying the cricket biosecure bubble in favour of daily testing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,412
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    Hmm. Must admit that I was very suspicious yesterday, as I posted. But I now tend to think this is pretty straight up, with all the other positives in his coterie.

    I took from the update that they made sure he wasn`t on oxygen today so that they could answer the question truthfully that they knew would come up on that matter. But he was on oxygen yesterday at some point and the medic was under instruction not to admit this.

    So, rather than deliberately making out he`s worse than he his, they are giving the most optimistic report. Maybe I`ve been taken in?
    No, you could be right. It could be me being overly suspicious. Let's see how it plays out. Let's see if they create an impression it's bad but he's "fighting" and then he pulls through looking fine and hot to trot in plenty of time for the election.

    I agree he IS positive for corona. My doubt on that point went away on further reflection.
    A bloke his age and his size with Covid would have to be extremely fortunate to be anywhere near back to his old self in fewer than 5 weeks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Nigelb said:

    Slate has a couple of headlines...

    Electoral Chaos Might Ensue if Biden or Trump Is Forced Out of the Race
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/trump-positive-what-happens-if-candidate-incapacitated-or-dies.html

    It’s Time for Trump to Resign and Drop Out of the Race
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/donald-trump-should-drop-out-of-the-presidential-race-and-resign.html

    I am not of a religious disposition, but just in case, I am praying for a full Trump recovery and a Biden victory.

    The Biden victory is secondary, but necessary, to seeing Donald Trump Snr, Don Jnr. and Eric leaving the New York State courthouse in leg irons, around this time next year.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does the US really want four more years of this bunch of clowns ?

    Well only one party in the last 100 years has lost the White House after only 1 term, the Democrats in 1980 when Carter lost to Reagan, so historically the odds still favour Trump even if Biden is ahead
    That is a gross misuse of historical data
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does the US really want four more years of this bunch of clowns ?

    Well only one party in the last 100 years has lost the White House after only 1 term, the Democrats in 1980 when Carter lost to Reagan, so historically the odds still favour Trump even if Biden is ahead
    Your deductions prove you are no Sherlock Holmes!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    Does the US really want four more years of this bunch of clowns ?

    This question and my answer to it - rather than polls - has always been at the heart of my Trump Toast conviction.
  • NEW THREAD

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    TimT said:

    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    Trumps doc is supposed to be making an update soon

    "Dr Conley who trained as an osteopath ..."

    How do we get out of this dystopia?
    Osteopaths are more known for their "bedside manner", aren't they?
    It’s not uncommon for doctors here in the US to train as DO rather than MD as the course is a bit shorter and cheaper.
    DOs tend also to approach treatment more holistically than do MDs.
    Forgive my comment if ill-informed. Osteopath always conjurs up Profumo Affair for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Does the US really want four more years of this bunch of clowns ?

    Well only one party in the last 100 years has lost the White House after only 1 term, the Democrats in 1980 when Carter lost to Reagan, so historically the odds still favour Trump even if Biden is ahead
    That is a gross misuse of historical data
    Accurate though and you have to go back to Grover Cleveland in 1888 and Benjamin Harrison in 1892 to find the last Presidents before 1980 who lost their re election bids after only 1 term of their party in the White House to see how rare it is
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Alistair said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    MikeL said:

    538 has just reduced Trump to 19% chance of winning - lowest ever.

    Presumably because of the PA poll? Silver mentioned a couple of weeks ago that because it's the most likely 270th vote then any good or bad polls for Biden there tend to move the scales around a fair bit.
    Important point of the Sienna polls is that they have really solid HS or less sampling. Much higher percentage than the 2016 exit polls said voted in those states.

    That makes them very reliable in my eyes. Here have been other Biden leads in those states with comically low HS or less cohorts that I've binned but these seem solid.
    Yeah, although the FL poll looks higher than I'd expect. Either way, I think it just confirms that Biden has multiple plausible paths to the 270, while Trump has a very narrow lane similar to his 2016 result but more treacherous.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    What Tories on ConHome are now saying about Bozo:

    “The PM was in Exeter yesterday and was interviewed for our localTV news by an experienced political commentator. The PM was evasive, bumbling, poorly prepared and utterly unconvincing“

    “Boris's dreadful performance on the Covid epidemic has let us all down badly“.

    “This is just not the right time for Boris to be the PM. This calls for a skillset which even his most ardent supporters know he doesnt possess “

    “Johnson is not PM material and never will be.”

    “ Sadly, it is also fair to Boris whose inability to take soundings has led to this sorry state – and he is still heading farther into the quick sands. Poor country, poor people”

    “ So Boris is past his shelf life. Who will replace him?”

    “ don't think Boris is able to up his game. I can't believe he was promoted to prime minister”
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    BBC: "Trump isn't on oxygen at the moment. However, his doctors refused repeatedly to rule out that he had ever been on supplementary oxygen."

    They are deliberately creating mystique and uncertainty. The goal is to make people think it's bad when it isn't. This cranks up the tension, the concern, the drama, the sympathy, and sets up a "Trump battles through" moment for maximum electoral impact.
    Hmm. Must admit that I was very suspicious yesterday, as I posted. But I now tend to think this is pretty straight up, with all the other positives in his coterie.

    I took from the update that they made sure he wasn`t on oxygen today so that they could answer the question truthfully that they knew would come up on that matter. But he was on oxygen yesterday at some point and the medic was under instruction not to admit this.

    So, rather than deliberately making out he`s worse than he his, they are giving the most optimistic report. Maybe I`ve been taken in?
    No, you could be right. It could be me being overly suspicious. Let's see how it plays out. Let's see if they create an impression it's bad but he's "fighting" and then he pulls through looking fine and hot to trot in plenty of time for the election.

    I agree he IS positive for corona. My doubt on that point went away on further reflection.
    A bloke his age and his size with Covid would have to be extremely fortunate to be anywhere near back to his old self in fewer than 5 weeks.
    So long as he is still standing, figuratively speaking, in five weeks.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    The WH lies and manipulates everything, you simply cannot believe anything that comes out of there anymore. Quite sad that the US has sunk to this, when I was growing up it was country people looked up to.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Sounds like tomorrow's Mail serialisation of the Bowers book will include stuff on the Ferguson model that closed down Britain and sent our economy off a cliff.

    Should make interesting reading.
This discussion has been closed.