Starmer's speech has gone over really well with the pundits and the Labour mainstream, while the left are generally observing a polite silence. In normal circs I think it'd make a big impact. But currently I doubt if either party's pseudo-conference will change much. We may be locked into the current political stasis until the virus starts to fade from attention, as it did briefly in the summer (which is when Labour caught up in the polls).
Right now he's certainly looking much much better than Boris for sure.
Anyone looks better than "Boris", except Corbyn. As a politically homeless person since the Conservative Party ditched being Conservative, I thought Starmer sounded impressive. A ruthless personal attack on Johnson shows he is not "boring" as the Johnson fanbois have tried to suggest. I am still concerned about the class obsessed, countryside and business hating lefties that are in the Labour Party, but if Starmer carries on this way I might lend him my vote next time round
Gosh, sounds like Starmer may already be penetrating the blue wall!
He’s making the right noises with a very sharp distancing from the previous regime.
Noises are one thing, but will Labour as a party be able to give up their addiction to wealth taxes, anti-British wokeness, unlimited immigration, the suppression of free speech, etc. etc. etc. ?
One day Starmer will actually have to declare some policy positions, and then we'll see...
Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.
I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...
--AS
I don't think British people are any more or less selfish than those in other countries such as Sweden.
Not good news for me, we have invited the full 30 to our wedding (including us), though fortunately it is not until March 2021 with a service of thanksgiving in June.
Like most couples most of those invited to watch it will already be watching online
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
An odd number? Asking for trouble unless that includes the vicar/minister/priest/registrar/celebrant. The limit for weddings in Scotland is currently 20. One of my daughter-in-laws' brother is getting married in March. If it is only 10 per side I doubt I will make the "cut". Also, the current plans for xmas dinner involve 13 people, aged from 6 months to 90, from 6 households all round at my son's in-laws. I am expecting it will be Xmas dinner for one for me now.
But then it is up to those families to form a support bubble and limit contact with the rest of us to ensure granny and grandpa don't die. As I said, there are too many people who believe in cakeism (ironic, I know) and want to have normal social lives but also be in regular contact with their parents and grandparents who are vulnerable and have a high chance of death of they catch the virus and a very high chance of severe ongoing problems if they don't die.
It just seems as though no one in the country is willing to have this conversation in a grown up way without calling everyone who thinks risk segmentation has a role to play a bunch of heartless Nazis or something like that.
And it's not really that difficult it's an either or question. You can socialise or see vulnerable people just don't do both...
What if you have a school age child or a risky job and vulnerable parents who need daily care?
Should people that work in a care home be banned from meeting anyone? They are badly paid enough already. Why would you continue to work there if you had to lock down with the residents for a long time (not just during a spike of a month or so)?
Risk segmentation sounds simple, but really, it isn't. It is impossible.
It does not sound, and is not, simple.
Nor is it impossible.
Theroetically it is not impossible. It will in practice be totally impossible to implement.
This is the kind of stuff we've needed for a while, a bit of flag waving
Turns me off a bit, I have to say. But my vote is safe (if not my membership) and it clearly is the case that the party under Corbyn was perceived as lacking in "proud to be British" sentiment and that this did cost votes and seats. It's important to counter this now and win a proportion of those voters back. So to this extent, I approve. "Go Keir. Wave that wi... flag."
But caution is required - because it's undeniable that xenophobic attitudes were a factor in taking some of these erstwhile Labour voters down the Brexit and UKIP-to-Tory path and Starmer should not imo be chasing this constituency. For 2 reasons. (i) Such attitudes are at odds with the core values of the party. (ii) It would backfire. The support picked up by pandering to xenophobic variety "patriotism" would be outweighed by the support lost in the party's new metropolitan base.
I don't think Starmer is pandering to anti-foreigner xenophobic patriotism but appealing to the middle of the road proud to be British patriotism.
Most of the party's new metropolitan base are bright enough to recognise that this is a route to power and won't be put off by it. It might even appeal to some.
I do hope and expect he will get things right. The risk I'm highlighting - of chasing Red Wall and losing Red Metro - is one he will have given far more thought to than I have. But I do fret about it. The shift to the left in 2015 turned me from a loyal Labour voter into a party member.
The answer to that will depend on whether he thinks the number of party members or the number of votes for his party at a general election is the more important statistic.
Oh the answer will be votes. No question. He will only take a direction if he is confident that the Red Wall gained will be bigger than the Red Metro lost. And of course in an ideal world - or even in this world if things go his way - he will gain both.
But how much Red Metro is there to actually lose at a GE? I’d say not much at all.
Why do you say that? Labour has become the party of the big cities and affluent uni towns. This is the new base - educated, urban, diverse, socially liberal - and it's bigger (now) than the old trad one that has drifted away on culture issues. There is a risk of overreaction to the loss of the Red Wall. That's my point. I'm sure Keir is aware of it. Certainly hope he is. Let's remember that a ton of votes are coming our way next time just purely based on integrity and competence. Johnson is being exposed as mendacious and utterly clueless. So, reap that harvest, by all means alter the mood music on "patriotism" so it doesn't turn people off unnecessarily, but do not make "Britain First" a key part of the offering, above all stay radical and socially liberal, do NOT lose people like me. There are loads of us. Ok, so we don't own a Union Jack or a St George, and we don't race whippets, but we vote.
How many seats will they lose at a GE, from those metropolitan and university towns? I suspect very few. If Starmer moves a little right from Corbyn you’re all voting for him and not the Tory, aren’t you?
The problem is that, to a large number of your metropolitan lefty friends, “socially liberal” means calling all white people racist, knocking down statues and saying that boys are girls. That goes down like a cup of cold sick in the Red Wall Seats, and will continue to go down like a cup of cold sick at the next election, unless Labour moves away from the far left.
They don’t need you to appeal to you to vote for them because you will anyway, they need me to vote for them if they want a majority.
It's the RISK I'm highlighting. The risk of him moving too far. There's this idea among some - mainly Tories tbf - that it is risk free for Starmer to move the party towards the cultural attitudes of Red Wall voters. It is not. He has to be very very careful. You caricature what Labour's new metropolitan voter base think because you have little understanding of it. But I do. I do, because I am one. And although my vote is safe as houses, I can assure you that for plenty of my ilk it isn't. There's no vote. There's Green. There's the LDs. Woo the Red Wall but do not chase it. That's perhaps the best way I can put it. I think he will. So far so good and I'll tell people if he goes imo seriously wrong. Consider me the canary in the coal mine.
Your vote is safe as houses, mine isn’t. He needs to be appealing to me if he wants a majority - and today was a good start.
He’s got years to work out the nuances of how far to the left to appeal and how many seats it might cost him to the LDs, but his starting point had to be those voters who voted Labour all their lives until only nine months ago.
Today was proudly waving the flag, it was’t doing his best impression of Nigel Farage.
I'd say that both exist but they are minority groups, especially in Parliament. The SNP are pretty close to lockdown fascists and it felt like they were dragged into opening up the economy because England and Wales were.
This is the kind of stuff we've needed for a while, a bit of flag waving
Turns me off a bit, I have to say. But my vote is safe (if not my membership) and it clearly is the case that the party under Corbyn was perceived as lacking in "proud to be British" sentiment and that this did cost votes and seats. It's important to counter this now and win a proportion of those voters back. So to this extent, I approve. "Go Keir. Wave that wi... flag."
But caution is required - because it's undeniable that xenophobic attitudes were a factor in taking some of these erstwhile Labour voters down the Brexit and UKIP-to-Tory path and Starmer should not imo be chasing this constituency. For 2 reasons. (i) Such attitudes are at odds with the core values of the party. (ii) It would backfire. The support picked up by pandering to xenophobic variety "patriotism" would be outweighed by the support lost in the party's new metropolitan base.
I don't think Starmer is pandering to anti-foreigner xenophobic patriotism but appealing to the middle of the road proud to be British patriotism.
Most of the party's new metropolitan base are bright enough to recognise that this is a route to power and won't be put off by it. It might even appeal to some.
I do hope and expect he will get things right. The risk I'm highlighting - of chasing Red Wall and losing Red Metro - is one he will have given far more thought to than I have. But I do fret about it. The shift to the left in 2015 turned me from a loyal Labour voter into a party member.
The answer to that will depend on whether he thinks the number of party members or the number of votes for his party at a general election is the more important statistic.
Oh the answer will be votes. No question. He will only take a direction if he is confident that the Red Wall gained will be bigger than the Red Metro lost. And of course in an ideal world - or even in this world if things go his way - he will gain both.
But how much Red Metro is there to actually lose at a GE? I’d say not much at all.
Why do you say that? Labour has become the party of the big cities and affluent uni towns. This is the new base - educated, urban, diverse, socially liberal - and it's bigger (now) than the old trad one that has drifted away on culture issues. There is a risk of overreaction to the loss of the Red Wall. That's my point. I'm sure Keir is aware of it. Certainly hope he is. Let's remember that a ton of votes are coming our way next time just purely based on integrity and competence. Johnson is being exposed as mendacious and utterly clueless. So, reap that harvest, by all means alter the mood music on "patriotism" so it doesn't turn people off unnecessarily, but do not make "Britain First" a key part of the offering, above all stay radical and socially liberal, do NOT lose people like me. There are loads of us. Ok, so we don't own a Union Jack or a St George, and we don't race whippets, but we vote.
How many seats will they lose at a GE, from those metropolitan and university towns? I suspect very few. If Starmer moves a little right from Corbyn you’re all voting for him and not the Tory, aren’t you?
The problem is that, to a large number of your metropolitan lefty friends, “socially liberal” means calling all white people racist, knocking down statues and saying that boys are girls. That goes down like a cup of cold sick in the Red Wall Seats, and will continue to go down like a cup of cold sick at the next election, unless Labour moves away from the far left.
They don’t need you to appeal to you to vote for them because you will anyway, they need me to vote for them if they want a majority.
It's the RISK I'm highlighting. The risk of him moving too far. There's this idea among some - mainly Tories tbf - that it is risk free for Starmer to move the party towards the cultural attitudes of Red Wall voters. It is not. He has to be very very careful. You caricature what Labour's new metropolitan voter base think because you have little understanding of it. But I do. I do, because I am one. And although my vote is safe as houses, I can assure you that for plenty of my ilk it isn't. There's no vote. There's Green. There's the LDs. Woo the Red Wall but do not chase it. That's perhaps the best way I can put it. I think he will. So far so good and I'll tell people if he goes imo seriously wrong. Consider me the canary in the coal mine.
“It is no good looking at just case numbers any more. You have to look at what is happening in the medical wards and intensive care beds. That is a much better guide to this pandemic.”
I think that applies here. On one hand we have people talking about the likes of false positives, and on the other hand we have increasing hospital admissions...
I agree on taking individual polls, particularly with party links, with a pinch of salt.
Worth noting, however, that 14 states (15 if you include NE-2) were won with under 50% of the vote in 2016. Unless there is a landslide for either candidate, which looks unlikely, it is very probable that states won with under 50% of the vote will prove decisive.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.
I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...
--AS
I have thought about the arithmetic. I have thought about the arithmetic of an extended lockdown - quasi or severe - for six months. I have thought about the people who will die of undiagnosed cancers, the millions with intensified mental health problems, the huge uptick in suicides, the addicts and drunks who will relapse from despair, the centres of our cities hollowed out for good.
I have thought about all this and I am unpersuaded that a second lockdown will, on balance, be a benefit to the nation.
Day time Sean v. night time Sean.
'I don't care how many old crappy demented people die.'
Not good news for me, we have invited the full 30 to our wedding (including us), though fortunately it is not until March 2021 with a service of thanksgiving in June.
Like most couples most of those invited to watch it will already be watching online
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
I have so many friends in the hospitality sector. They are in absolute despair, now. No Christmas means bankruptcy.
This is a terrible thing. And it makes me recall my Rule of Covid: imagine your reasonable worst case scenario: because that is what will happen.
"When it comes to handling coronavirus, were the political ‘bad guys’ right all along? For many, the epitome of incompetence would be Donald Trump. But by prioritising the economy, the US has got off relatively lightly Vince Cable"
"Sweden’s apparent success in getting on top of the infection and escaping the worst of economic damage (with an estimated fall of 4 per cent in GDP this year) has begun to restore its reputation after the initial surge in deaths. The lessons from Sweden are that common sense, consensus and self-discipline work better than convoluted, constantly changing, rules and regulations; that people respond better to being treated as adults than wayward children; that consistent, clear messaging is essential; and that schools and workplaces can and must be kept open."
In Q2 Sweden's GDP fell by 8.6%. That's better than the UK or Spain, but a lot worse than Norway and a little worse than Denmark.
According to the PMIs (which are a pretty good measure of GDP growth), Sweden has only managed two months of growth since CV19 (July and August) against four for next door Denmark.
I'm also somewhat surprised by 'getting off remarkably lightly' about the US. Using excess mortality numbers, it has more deaths than the UK on a per capita basis. It's recovery is also faltering in many places, as de facto second lockdowns come into being.
I'd say that both exist but they are minority groups, especially in Parliament. The SNP are pretty close to lockdown fascists and it felt like they were dragged into opening up the economy because England and Wales were.
Also the far 'extremes' are the loudest and get the most media.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
I have so many friends in the hospitality sector. They are in absolute despair, now. No Christmas means bankruptcy.
This is a terrible thing. And it makes me recall my Rule of Covid: imagine your reasonable worst case scenario: because that is what will happen.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
I have so many friends in the hospitality sector. They are in absolute despair, now. No Christmas means bankruptcy.
This is a terrible thing. And it makes me recall my Rule of Covid: imagine your reasonable worst case scenario: because that is what will happen.
You have become far braver since the gender reassigned name. No hiding in Penarth this time then?
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
I have a very minor operation scheduled for October the 16th, that I will be cancelling.
Why? Hospitals are not jammed with Covid patients, yet, and some hospitals are being kept Covid free, deliberately.
It's not essential, it causes me some discomfort in the knee, I can cope with going on as it, I really don't want to been in hospital when we're seeing lots of Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations.
That's because there is far more testing now, so there are far more asymptomatic cases captured and also cases are bring identified far earlier in the illness. Back in March and April people were testing positive while they were seriously ill in hospital and many died soon after. On a comparable basis the number of cases is far lower than in mid March but it will continue to increase sharply and deaths will follow unless action is taken. Although I doubt it will explode in the same way as before because there are already far more things being done to slow the spread, including WFH, face masks, bubbles at school, less use of public transport and better hand hygiene.
I'd put it that we have simply not yet seen how COVID behaves in a northern hemisphere winter. Just a few million people in the southern hemisphere live further from the equator than Naples, and though the Southern Ocean chills, the winter locations just don't exist.
Wuhan and Qom were rapidly spring like by March, and the slower spring onset in Europe was taking effect.
No location in the world has seen a sustained R over about 1.3 since March, all the hot locations have had long slow burn epidemics and varying degrees of lockdown have been in place.
The emphasis has been very much that temperate seasonality is almost entirely behavioural - getting outdoors, opening windows, but that debate isn't even remotely closed for all the years we've had seasonal flu around - COVID in full swing in multiple major world cities where the outdoor daytime temperature is 5C for days, perhaps weeks - that simply hasn't happened yet.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
I think we will have to print some more. There can only be so many times that we can safely dip in that well.
"When it comes to handling coronavirus, were the political ‘bad guys’ right all along? For many, the epitome of incompetence would be Donald Trump. But by prioritising the economy, the US has got off relatively lightly Vince Cable"
"Sweden’s apparent success in getting on top of the infection and escaping the worst of economic damage (with an estimated fall of 4 per cent in GDP this year) has begun to restore its reputation after the initial surge in deaths. The lessons from Sweden are that common sense, consensus and self-discipline work better than convoluted, constantly changing, rules and regulations; that people respond better to being treated as adults than wayward children; that consistent, clear messaging is essential; and that schools and workplaces can and must be kept open."
In Q2 Sweden's GDP fell by 8.6%. That's better than the UK or Spain, but a lot worse than Norway and a little worse than Denmark.
According to the PMIs (which are a pretty good measure of GDP growth), Sweden has only managed two months of growth since CV19 (July and August) against four for next door Denmark.
I'm also somewhat surprised by 'getting off remarkably lightly' about the US. Using excess mortality numbers, it has more deaths than the UK on a per capita basis. It's recovery is also faltering in many places, as de facto second lockdowns come into being.
I also think there needs to be an education of how GDP is measured in the UK and why it's not comparable to European countries during this kind of crisis. The ONS measures state sector output as a component of GDP, European countries measure the input of the state as a component of GDP. In a crisis where state run sectors such and healthcare and education also faced a general shutdown it magnified the UK's GDP fall. On a European input based measure the UK fall is much smaller, but then so is the recovery, it looks a lot closer to the Netherlands or Germany.
Starmer's speech has gone over really well with the pundits and the Labour mainstream, while the left are generally observing a polite silence. In normal circs I think it'd make a big impact. But currently I doubt if either party's pseudo-conference will change much. We may be locked into the current political stasis until the virus starts to fade from attention, as it did briefly in the summer (which is when Labour caught up in the polls).
Right now he's certainly looking much much better than Boris for sure.
Anyone looks better than "Boris", except Corbyn. As a politically homeless person since the Conservative Party ditched being Conservative, I thought Starmer sounded impressive. A ruthless personal attack on Johnson shows he is not "boring" as the Johnson fanbois have tried to suggest. I am still concerned about the class obsessed, countryside and business hating lefties that are in the Labour Party, but if Starmer carries on this way I might lend him my vote next time round
Gosh, sounds like Starmer may already be penetrating the blue wall!
He’s making the right noises with a very sharp distancing from the previous regime.
Noises are one thing, but will Labour as a party be able to give up their addiction to wealth taxes, anti-British wokeness, unlimited immigration, the suppression of free speech, etc. etc. etc. ?
One day Starmer will actually have to declare some policy positions, and then we'll see...
Oh indeed. Whether he’s the next Blair remains to be seen, but even the next EdM would be a vast improvement on the Marxist antisemite who came before him.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
I think we will have to print some more. There can only be so many times that we can safely dip in that well.
Which without increased productivity means higher inflation
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.
I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...
--AS
I have thought about the arithmetic. I have thought about the arithmetic of an extended lockdown - quasi or severe - for six months. I have thought about the people who will die of undiagnosed cancers, the millions with intensified mental health problems, the huge uptick in suicides, the addicts and drunks who will relapse from despair, the centres of our cities hollowed out for good.
I have thought about all this and I am unpersuaded that a second lockdown will, on balance, be a benefit to the nation.
Day time Sean v. night time Sean.
'I don't care how many old crappy demented people die.'
Like..er..night and day.
Ní sean mé
The two statements are not contradictory. If forced to choose, I would save the economy, and save thousands of younger lives, rather than going for lockdown, and saving lots of older people with co-morbidities.
It is a cruel, brutal and inhumane choice. It is the worst turn of events that I have experienced in my life. By some distance. But it is a choice we have to make, and I fear we are taking the wrong road.
Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.
I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...
--AS
I have thought about the arithmetic. I have thought about the arithmetic of an extended lockdown - quasi or severe - for six months. I have thought about the people who will die of undiagnosed cancers, the millions with intensified mental health problems, the huge uptick in suicides, the addicts and drunks who will relapse from despair, the centres of our cities hollowed out for good.
I have thought about all this and I am unpersuaded that a second lockdown will, on balance, be a benefit to the nation.
The UK really ought not make the same mistakes in "Lockdown II - The virus fights back". A big change should be, everyone has access to appropriate health care, but with sensible precautions. In the height of Lockdown in Berlin, I was able to get GP, hospital treatment and referral to a specialist, and I was shocked to find out that this would not have been possible in most of the UK.
Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.
I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...
--AS
I have thought about the arithmetic. I have thought about the arithmetic of an extended lockdown - quasi or severe - for six months. I have thought about the people who will die of undiagnosed cancers, the millions with intensified mental health problems, the huge uptick in suicides, the addicts and drunks who will relapse from despair, the centres of our cities hollowed out for good.
I have thought about all this and I am unpersuaded that a second lockdown will, on balance, be a benefit to the nation.
I really don't see why this is complex.
You implement a consistent set of measures that minimise R, without shutting down economic activity:
- no nightclubs, karaoke, rock concerts, etc. Restrictions on the maximum number of people in pubs. - proper quarantine procedures for people coming from overseas - you continue to encourage working from home - compulsory masks in places like public transport
Plus, you ramp up rapid testing for things like schools, so that flare ups can be shut down quickly.
Now, it means that Christmas parties are going to be more sedate this year. But it means they still happen. Most people are able to go about their lives with minimal disruption.
It doesn't get rid of CV19, but it manages it until a vaccine exists.
Not good news for me, we have invited the full 30 to our wedding (including us), though fortunately it is not until March 2021 with a service of thanksgiving in June.
Like most couples most of those invited to watch it will already be watching online
Can you delay it a few months?
It is booked for March, if the rule of 15 still applies in February we might be able to move it to June but hopefully it will be back to 30 by then. If not and the 15 rule applies through June then we have to cut our invites by half, so basically I would only invite from my side my parents, sister, uncle and aunt and the best man
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
Of course non-league football is shafted. So are most team sports without access to TV deals.
Even in the leagues how does anyone not in the Premiership survive? Even in the Premiership the loss of gate money and match day hospitality is going to hurt and some clubs will struggle to pay wages.
"When it comes to handling coronavirus, were the political ‘bad guys’ right all along? For many, the epitome of incompetence would be Donald Trump. But by prioritising the economy, the US has got off relatively lightly Vince Cable"
"Sweden’s apparent success in getting on top of the infection and escaping the worst of economic damage (with an estimated fall of 4 per cent in GDP this year) has begun to restore its reputation after the initial surge in deaths. The lessons from Sweden are that common sense, consensus and self-discipline work better than convoluted, constantly changing, rules and regulations; that people respond better to being treated as adults than wayward children; that consistent, clear messaging is essential; and that schools and workplaces can and must be kept open."
In Q2 Sweden's GDP fell by 8.6%. That's better than the UK or Spain, but a lot worse than Norway and a little worse than Denmark.
According to the PMIs (which are a pretty good measure of GDP growth), Sweden has only managed two months of growth since CV19 (July and August) against four for next door Denmark.
I'm also somewhat surprised by 'getting off remarkably lightly' about the US. Using excess mortality numbers, it has more deaths than the UK on a per capita basis. It's recovery is also faltering in many places, as de facto second lockdowns come into being.
I also think there needs to be an education of how GDP is measured in the UK and why it's not comparable to European countries during this kind of crisis. The ONS measures state sector output as a component of GDP, European countries measure the input of the state as a component of GDP. In a crisis where state run sectors such and healthcare and education also faced a general shutdown it magnified the UK's GDP fall. On a European input based measure the UK fall is much smaller, but then so is the recovery, it looks a lot closer to the Netherlands or Germany.
I've long felt that GDP should be measured with the Government's deficit deducted from the Government's element of GDP to give a better view of the real economic shape of the countries performance. The idea that major borrowing can be done to sustain GDP for the long term is farcical and is mortgaging the future for today's GDP figures.
"When it comes to handling coronavirus, were the political ‘bad guys’ right all along? For many, the epitome of incompetence would be Donald Trump. But by prioritising the economy, the US has got off relatively lightly Vince Cable"
"Sweden’s apparent success in getting on top of the infection and escaping the worst of economic damage (with an estimated fall of 4 per cent in GDP this year) has begun to restore its reputation after the initial surge in deaths. The lessons from Sweden are that common sense, consensus and self-discipline work better than convoluted, constantly changing, rules and regulations; that people respond better to being treated as adults than wayward children; that consistent, clear messaging is essential; and that schools and workplaces can and must be kept open."
In Q2 Sweden's GDP fell by 8.6%. That's better than the UK or Spain, but a lot worse than Norway and a little worse than Denmark.
According to the PMIs (which are a pretty good measure of GDP growth), Sweden has only managed two months of growth since CV19 (July and August) against four for next door Denmark.
I'm also somewhat surprised by 'getting off remarkably lightly' about the US. Using excess mortality numbers, it has more deaths than the UK on a per capita basis. It's recovery is also faltering in many places, as de facto second lockdowns come into being.
I also think there needs to be an education of how GDP is measured in the UK and why it's not comparable to European countries during this kind of crisis. The ONS measures state sector output as a component of GDP, European countries measure the input of the state as a component of GDP. In a crisis where state run sectors such and healthcare and education also faced a general shutdown it magnified the UK's GDP fall. On a European input based measure the UK fall is much smaller, but then so is the recovery, it looks a lot closer to the Netherlands or Germany.
+1
It's also worth remembering that the US measures GDP growth differently to everyone else in the world, so quarterly numbers are reported at an annual rate. Thus making it look like it's recovering much faster than it is.
R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust. Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing. Unviable with parties of 15.
Of course non-league football is shafted. So are most team sports without access to TV deals.
Even in the leagues how does anyone not in the Premiership survive? Even in the Premiership the loss of gate money and match day hospitality is going to hurt and some clubs will struggle to pay wages.
Like it or not, the top level of footballer is going to have to take a wage haircut. Probably a No.1 haircut.
But then it is up to those families to form a support bubble and limit contact with the rest of us to ensure granny and grandpa don't die. As I said, there are too many people who believe in cakeism (ironic, I know) and want to have normal social lives but also be in regular contact with their parents and grandparents who are vulnerable and have a high chance of death of they catch the virus and a very high chance of severe ongoing problems if they don't die.
It just seems as though no one in the country is willing to have this conversation in a grown up way without calling everyone who thinks risk segmentation has a role to play a bunch of heartless Nazis or something like that.
And it's not really that difficult it's an either or question. You can socialise or see vulnerable people just don't do both...
What if you have a school age child or a risky job and vulnerable parents who need daily care?
Should people that work in a care home be banned from meeting anyone? They are badly paid enough already. Why would you continue to work there if you had to lock down with the residents for a long time (not just during a spike of a month or so)?
Risk segmentation sounds simple, but really, it isn't. It is impossible.
Absolutely. Humal life is so intertwined, it is impossible to have high risk totally isolated whereas low risk live life as normal. Parents over 60 with a teenagers at home is just one example that is totally unfeasible to "segment".
Starmer's speech has gone over really well with the pundits and the Labour mainstream, while the left are generally observing a polite silence. In normal circs I think it'd make a big impact. But currently I doubt if either party's pseudo-conference will change much. We may be locked into the current political stasis until the virus starts to fade from attention, as it did briefly in the summer (which is when Labour caught up in the polls).
Right now he's certainly looking much much better than Boris for sure.
Anyone looks better than "Boris", except Corbyn. As a politically homeless person since the Conservative Party ditched being Conservative, I thought Starmer sounded impressive. A ruthless personal attack on Johnson shows he is not "boring" as the Johnson fanbois have tried to suggest. I am still concerned about the class obsessed, countryside and business hating lefties that are in the Labour Party, but if Starmer carries on this way I might lend him my vote next time round
I'm in the same boat.
There is a long way to go and I doubt I would vote Labour but I would not rule it out
Bloody hell! Just PT and HYUFD to go then! Maybe even Bluestblue.......
Don’t get carried away, when it comes to the crunch 95% of them will vote Tory all they want is a safe Labour Party just in case the tories lose.
Starmer's speech has gone over really well with the pundits and the Labour mainstream, while the left are generally observing a polite silence. In normal circs I think it'd make a big impact. But currently I doubt if either party's pseudo-conference will change much. We may be locked into the current political stasis until the virus starts to fade from attention, as it did briefly in the summer (which is when Labour caught up in the polls).
Right now he's certainly looking much much better than Boris for sure.
Anyone looks better than "Boris", except Corbyn. As a politically homeless person since the Conservative Party ditched being Conservative, I thought Starmer sounded impressive. A ruthless personal attack on Johnson shows he is not "boring" as the Johnson fanbois have tried to suggest. I am still concerned about the class obsessed, countryside and business hating lefties that are in the Labour Party, but if Starmer carries on this way I might lend him my vote next time round
Gosh, sounds like Starmer may already be penetrating the blue wall!
He’s making the right noises with a very sharp distancing from the previous regime.
Noises are one thing, but will Labour as a party be able to give up their addiction to wealth taxes, anti-British wokeness, unlimited immigration, the suppression of free speech, etc. etc. etc. ?
One day Starmer will actually have to declare some policy positions, and then we'll see...
No previous opposition ahead of victory in a GE has had to do this, so why do you think he will have to?
This is the kind of stuff we've needed for a while, a bit of flag waving
Turns me off a bit, I have to say. But my vote is safe (if not my membership) and it clearly is the case that the party under Corbyn was perceived as lacking in "proud to be British" sentiment and that this did cost votes and seats. It's important to counter this now and win a proportion of those voters back. So to this extent, I approve. "Go Keir. Wave that wi... flag."
But caution is required - because it's undeniable that xenophobic attitudes were a factor in taking some of these erstwhile Labour voters down the Brexit and UKIP-to-Tory path and Starmer should not imo be chasing this constituency. For 2 reasons. (i) Such attitudes are at odds with the core values of the party. (ii) It would backfire. The support picked up by pandering to xenophobic variety "patriotism" would be outweighed by the support lost in the party's new metropolitan base.
I don't think Starmer is pandering to anti-foreigner xenophobic patriotism but appealing to the middle of the road proud to be British patriotism.
Most of the party's new metropolitan base are bright enough to recognise that this is a route to power and won't be put off by it. It might even appeal to some.
I do hope and expect he will get things right. The risk I'm highlighting - of chasing Red Wall and losing Red Metro - is one he will have given far more thought to than I have. But I do fret about it. The shift to the left in 2015 turned me from a loyal Labour voter into a party member.
The answer to that will depend on whether he thinks the number of party members or the number of votes for his party at a general election is the more important statistic.
Oh the answer will be votes. No question. He will only take a direction if he is confident that the Red Wall gained will be bigger than the Red Metro lost. And of course in an ideal world - or even in this world if things go his way - he will gain both.
But how much Red Metro is there to actually lose at a GE? I’d say not much at all.
Why do you say that? Labour has become the party of the big cities and affluent uni towns. This is the new base - educated, urban, diverse, socially liberal - and it's bigger (now) than the old trad one that has drifted away on culture issues. There is a risk of overreaction to the loss of the Red Wall. That's my point. I'm sure Keir is aware of it. Certainly hope he is. Let's remember that a ton of votes are coming our way next time just purely based on integrity and competence. Johnson is being exposed as mendacious and utterly clueless. So, reap that harvest, by all means alter the mood music on "patriotism" so it doesn't turn people off unnecessarily, but do not make "Britain First" a key part of the offering, above all stay radical and socially liberal, do NOT lose people like me. There are loads of us. Ok, so we don't own a Union Jack or a St George, and we don't race whippets, but we vote.
How many seats will they lose at a GE, from those metropolitan and university towns? I suspect very few. If Starmer moves a little right from Corbyn you’re all voting for him and not the Tory, aren’t you?
The problem is that, to a large number of your metropolitan lefty friends, “socially liberal” means calling all white people racist, knocking down statues and saying that boys are girls. That goes down like a cup of cold sick in the Red Wall Seats, and will continue to go down like a cup of cold sick at the next election, unless Labour moves away from the far left.
They don’t need you to appeal to you to vote for them because you will anyway, they need me to vote for them if they want a majority.
It's the RISK I'm highlighting. The risk of him moving too far. There's this idea among some - mainly Tories tbf - that it is risk free for Starmer to move the party towards the cultural attitudes of Red Wall voters. It is not. He has to be very very careful. You caricature what Labour's new metropolitan voter base think because you have little understanding of it. But I do. I do, because I am one. And although my vote is safe as houses, I can assure you that for plenty of my ilk it isn't. There's no vote. There's Green. There's the LDs. Woo the Red Wall but do not chase it. That's perhaps the best way I can put it. I think he will. So far so good and I'll tell people if he goes imo seriously wrong. Consider me the canary in the coal mine.
Your vote is safe as houses, mine isn’t. He needs to be appealing to me if he wants a majority - and today was a good start.
He’s got years to work out the nuances of how far to the left to appeal and how many seats it might cost him to the LDs, but his starting point had to be those voters who voted Labour all their lives until only nine months ago.
Today was proudly waving the flag, it was’t doing his best impression of Nigel Farage.
It was a good speech. So, me and you voting for the same party. Fantastic if Starmer can pull that off. That would be one David Tennant / Olivia Coleman and no mistake. That's Labour landslide.
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
Yep - we are the dark money capital of the world. Vice and corruption are amongst the biggest global industry sectors there are and a massive chunk of the profits from both make their way here. Clean it all up and the City is suddenly a much smaller, quieter place.
But then it is up to those families to form a support bubble and limit contact with the rest of us to ensure granny and grandpa don't die. As I said, there are too many people who believe in cakeism (ironic, I know) and want to have normal social lives but also be in regular contact with their parents and grandparents who are vulnerable and have a high chance of death of they catch the virus and a very high chance of severe ongoing problems if they don't die.
It just seems as though no one in the country is willing to have this conversation in a grown up way without calling everyone who thinks risk segmentation has a role to play a bunch of heartless Nazis or something like that.
And it's not really that difficult it's an either or question. You can socialise or see vulnerable people just don't do both...
What if you have a school age child or a risky job and vulnerable parents who need daily care?
Should people that work in a care home be banned from meeting anyone? They are badly paid enough already. Why would you continue to work there if you had to lock down with the residents for a long time (not just during a spike of a month or so)?
Risk segmentation sounds simple, but really, it isn't. It is impossible.
It does not sound, and is not, simple.
Nor is it impossible.
It's just that nowhere in the world has anyone implemented a workable strategy. I know you've linked to a one-page pdf which essentially says "shielding for the old and extra PPE for healthcare workers" but that doesn't answer all the questions and issues by a long chalk.
I'd love it if there were some way to do it, but society is intertwined through all demographics of age.
"b) Society is an open system. To cut a cohort of “vulnerable” people off from “non-vulnerable” or “less vulnerable” is likely to prove practically impossible, especially for disadvantaged groups (e.g. those living in cramped housing and multi-generational households). Many grandparents are looking after children sent home from school while parents are at work. ...
d) Despite claims to the contrary from some quarters, there are no examples of a segmentation-and-shielding policy having worked in any country.Notwithstanding our opposition to a policy of segmentation-and-shielding, we strongly support measures that will provide additional protection to those in care homes and other vulnerable groups. "
Several other senior academics argue that it is possible (and that Germany has been successful at it).
Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
There is very clearly going to be a further economic support package on the back of this. Clearly Boris did not want to announce this today, either because it is not ready or he doesn't want to distract from his central message. But it will come, its inevitable.
Yes but where's the money going to come from? We could accept loans from China i suppose.
I think we will have to print some more. There can only be so many times that we can safely dip in that well.
Which without increased productivity means higher inflation
Higher inflation is caused mainly by demand for goods and services exceeding supply. We have the opposite problem and will have for some time. Possibly for a long time.
Only 15 is very good indeed for Boris. If that's the level of revolt when he's beset by crises on all sides and asking his troops to march through fire, then fantasies of his imminent demise are rather premature, to say the least
Mrs May as persuasive as ever, I see.
I watched with interest Damien Green's speech - not persuaded by his friend from Maidenhead. Ah, the power of the hope of future advancement.....I don't think his analysis that the HoC breaking an agreement is less damaging than the Executive holds much water...
Comments
One day Starmer will actually have to declare some policy positions, and then we'll see...
https://twitter.com/CauldronOfWoo/status/1308378757837787137
Like most couples most of those invited to watch it will already be watching online
Pathetic.
From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.
France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?
Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
I am going now before my rage makes me say something I might regret.
The limit for weddings in Scotland is currently 20. One of my daughter-in-laws' brother is getting married in March. If it is only 10 per side I doubt I will make the "cut".
Also, the current plans for xmas dinner involve 13 people, aged from 6 months to 90, from 6 households all round at my son's in-laws. I am expecting it will be Xmas dinner for one for me now.
He’s got years to work out the nuances of how far to the left to appeal and how many seats it might cost him to the LDs, but his starting point had to be those voters who voted Labour all their lives until only nine months ago.
Today was proudly waving the flag, it was’t doing his best impression of Nigel Farage.
DKier Stüarmer, is what I say.Worth noting, however, that 14 states (15 if you include NE-2) were won with under 50% of the vote in 2016. Unless there is a landslide for either candidate, which looks unlikely, it is very probable that states won with under 50% of the vote will prove decisive.
'I don't care how many old crappy demented people die.'
Like..er..night and day.
This is a terrible thing. And it makes me recall my Rule of Covid: imagine your reasonable worst case scenario: because that is what will happen.
According to the PMIs (which are a pretty good measure of GDP growth), Sweden has only managed two months of growth since CV19 (July and August) against four for next door Denmark.
Now, it's possible that Sweden's GDP only falls 4% this year (but bear in mind that Vince Cable is cherry picking a single GDP forecast, almost everyone else has it dropping 4.7-5.5%), but that's no better than it's Scandinavian neighbours.
I'm also somewhat surprised by 'getting off remarkably lightly' about the US. Using excess mortality numbers, it has more deaths than the UK on a per capita basis. It's recovery is also faltering in many places, as de facto second lockdowns come into being.
Let's put this into context for a second, according to OpenTable (whose numbers are about as good as you're going to get for real time information about restaurant usage), the US is running at a worsening down 38% year-over-year, while Germany is up 18%.
I reckon if it is a purely political decision, Boris Johnson gives a bailout to the EFL clubs.
I'm very ponceyboots-gaylordism on this.
Wuhan and Qom were rapidly spring like by March, and the slower spring onset in Europe was taking effect.
No location in the world has seen a sustained R over about 1.3 since March, all the hot locations have had long slow burn epidemics and varying degrees of lockdown have been in place.
The emphasis has been very much that temperate seasonality is almost entirely behavioural - getting outdoors, opening windows, but that debate isn't even remotely closed for all the years we've had seasonal flu around - COVID in full swing in multiple major world cities where the outdoor daytime temperature is 5C for days, perhaps weeks - that simply hasn't happened yet.
https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1308364963715715072
Ní sean mé
The two statements are not contradictory. If forced to choose, I would save the economy, and save thousands of younger lives, rather than going for lockdown, and saving lots of older people with co-morbidities.
It is a cruel, brutal and inhumane choice. It is the worst turn of events that I have experienced in my life. By some distance. But it is a choice we have to make, and I fear we are taking the wrong road.
A big change should be, everyone has access to appropriate health care, but with sensible precautions.
In the height of Lockdown in Berlin, I was able to get GP, hospital treatment and referral to a specialist, and I was shocked to find out that this would not have been possible in most of the UK.
You implement a consistent set of measures that minimise R, without shutting down economic activity:
- no nightclubs, karaoke, rock concerts, etc. Restrictions on the maximum number of people in pubs.
- proper quarantine procedures for people coming from overseas
- you continue to encourage working from home
- compulsory masks in places like public transport
Plus, you ramp up rapid testing for things like schools, so that flare ups can be shut down quickly.
Now, it means that Christmas parties are going to be more sedate this year. But it means they still happen. Most people are able to go about their lives with minimal disruption.
It doesn't get rid of CV19, but it manages it until a vaccine exists.
Strike under.. no S*** sherlock.
NEW THREAD
It's also worth remembering that the US measures GDP growth differently to everyone else in the world, so quarterly numbers are reported at an annual rate. Thus making it look like it's recovering much faster than it is.
Anyone can be wrong, but to profess publicly an expertise you don't have is hubris.
Even though that is not the case.
Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
Unviable with parties of 15.
What do you propose, lockdown everyone?