A lockdown is not worth it with the low fatality rate of covid -19 , it really isn't.
I agree. I think the government strategy is to frighten people into keeping their guard up, wearing masks, keeping their distance etc, in order to prevent a lock down.
Although deaths are rising they are at a much lower level than in the first wave, as are hospitalisations. With an R of 1.5 at a low level they are manageable with tweaks rather than a total lockdown in my opinion.
This is the hokey cokey government - Its only August FFS that the government was giving vouchers to eat out on mass and now using Project Fear to tell people to stay in . Arrogant to the point of needing to pretend to be in control of a virus and also arrogant a month ago to try and pretend they can be the savior of the high street . Just go away you useless arrogant knobs.Also arrogant enough to think that they can somehow defy the EU and world to the extent that the UK will be fine in a no deal brexit
There's much to criticise the government for, for example they are treating Covid-19 like a political party/campaign.
You are right, there are reasons to criticise the government for their management of Covid. However, Labour in Wales and the SNP in Scotland have followed broadly the same strategy, and Starmer has near enough supported the government whenever it's made changes to Covid policy. There have been no significant changes to Covid policy suggested by the opposition.
Furthermore, it's clear that major European countries such as France and Spain are if anything in an even worse situation, and the images of the crowd at the TDF this week have beggared belief. Macron of course was amongst them. According to an article in the Times this week pretty much every country in Europe has major issues with testing capacity.
Managing Covid is not as easy as some on here seem to suggest.
The other thing that annoys me, something I said back in March, until we have a vaccine, there are no good choices, only least bad ones for the government to make.
It is why I place the Covid deniers in the same category as anti-vaxxers and people who put pineapple on pizza.
I expect that the overlap between the Covid deniers and the anti-vaxxers is very high. Not sure about how much they overlap with the pizza-pineapplers. We need more polling on that.
What is wrong with them? High temperature and a persistent cough for many shortly...
Nothing surreal about it - Its surreal thats suggests that covid -19 will be somehow eliminated if we all go around in no more than groups of 6 and in the meantime destroy the economy.
Nah, this is much worse, this week he wasn't even looking at the ball.
I think he knew what he was doing. I wouldn't have a problem with VAR saying no to it being a clear and obvious error, but I can see why Atkinson gave it on review.
This is the hokey cokey government - Its only August FFS that the government was giving vouchers to eat out on mass and now using Project Fear to tell people to stay in . Arrogant to the point of needing to pretend to be in control of a virus and also arrogant a month ago to try and pretend they can be the savior of the high street . Just go away you useless arrogant knobs.Also arrogant enough to think that they can somehow defy the EU and world to the extent that the UK will be fine in a no deal brexit
There's much to criticise the government for, for example they are treating Covid-19 like a political party/campaign.
You are right, there are reasons to criticise the government for their management of Covid. However, Labour in Wales and the SNP in Scotland have followed broadly the same strategy, and Starmer has near enough supported the government whenever it's made changes to Covid policy. There have been no significant changes to Covid policy suggested by the opposition.
Furthermore, it's clear that major European countries such as France and Spain are if anything in an even worse situation, and the images of the crowd at the TDF this week have beggared belief. Macron of course was amongst them. According to an article in the Times this week pretty much every country in Europe has major issues with testing capacity.
Managing Covid is not as easy as some on here seem to suggest.
The other thing that annoys me, something I said back in March, until we have a vaccine, there are no good choices, only least bad ones for the government to make.
It is why I place the Covid deniers in the same category as anti-vaxxers and people who put pineapple on pizza.
I expect that the overlap between the Covid deniers and the anti-vaxxers is very high. Not sure about how much they overmap with the pizza-pineapplers. We need more polling on that.
We do need more polling.
I mean the other issue that needs to be addressed is that if we do we get a vaccine is what do we do to those who refuse to have the vaccine, because you can be sure the anti-vaxxers won't be quiet.
Three weeks of strict nationwide lockdown begin today in Israel.
Which is really strange, because the virus doesn't exist / isn't harmful / can be easily eliminated / has been completely cured outside the British Isles / is the exclusive result of trips to Barnard Castle *
Nah, this is much worse, this week he wasn't even looking at the ball.
I think he knew what he was doing. I wouldn't have a problem with VAR saying no to it being a clear and obvious error, but I can see why Atkinson gave it on review.
Karma for that shocking penalty awarded to United against Villa last season.
"We looked at the [Imperial (i.e. Ferguson's] model and we could see that the variables put into the model were quite extreme… Why did they choose variables that gave extreme results? So we were always quite doubtful. We did some work on our own that pointed in quite a different direction. In the end, it proved that our prognosis was much closer to the real situation. Probably because we used data that was coming from the actual situation , and not from some kind of theoretical model."
Nah, this is much worse, this week he wasn't even looking at the ball.
I think he knew what he was doing. I wouldn't have a problem with VAR saying no to it being a clear and obvious error, but I can see why Atkinson gave it on review.
At least it's the ref himself making the decision this season rather than just ignoring the pitch side monitors.
Is it the considered view of PB that a national lockdown is coming then?
Lockdown 2.0 -Same but Different. No "don't go to work," more aggressive house arrest of the vulnerable and elderly (redefined as >60 or even >55), abortive attempt to keep schools open, yuuuuuge fines for breach of anything.
Three weeks of strict nationwide lockdown begin today in Israel.
Which is really strange, because the virus doesn't exist / isn't harmful / can be easily eliminated / has been completely cured outside the British Isles / is the exclusive result of trips to Barnard Castle *
What is wrong with them? High temperature and a persistent cough for many shortly...
Nothing surreal about it - Its surreal thats suggests that covid -19 will be somehow eliminated if we all go around in no more than groups of 6 and in the meantime destroy the economy.
Alternative - let's all get together without masks and shout spread the virus, kill more people and overwhelm the NHS - and that helps the economy how? Of course it won't.
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
Trump clearly wants to keep the issue of a new Justice live on election day to maximise evangelical turnout
In 2004 Bush won 78% of evangelicals and they made up 23% of the electorate
In 2008 McCain's share of evangelicals fell to 74% but their share of the electorate rose to 26%
In 2012 Romney increased his share of evangelicals back to the 78% Bush got though their share of the electorate remained unchanged at 26%
In 2016 Trump got the highest share of the evangelical vote yet at 81% though their voteshare again remained at 26%.
In November Trump will therefore not only be aiming to keep his share of evangelicals over 80% but to drive their turnout close to 30% of the electorate given the chance of a pro life Justice to replace a pro choice Justice
The last Democrat to win the evangelical vote was Carter in 1976, since then they have played a key part in the winning Republican campaigns of Reagan, Bush 41 once and Bush 43 twice and Trump
Been away from PB and visiting the real world for a bit so I don't know how the Brains Trust here has evaluated the Ginsburg effect. Intuitively I feel it should favor Trump but logically it is hard to pinpoint why. It was known she was likely to go soon, whether through illness death or retirement, and Evangelicals would always support a candidate who promised them SC appointments to their liking. So Trump was always going to get their vote regardless of whether there was actually a vacancy or not. I'm not sure really why the actuality of a vacancy makes much difference.
Trump's price has shortened a bit on Betfair, back to where it was a few days ago. The Spreads are unmoved. Somehow I think replacing Ginsburg is not going to determine the Election.
A few weeks ago I posted on PB that an American friend, a never Trump GOPer, said that the only way Trump was going to win was if one of the Supremes dropped dead, that we underestimated the influence of selecting Scalia's replacement got out the never Trumpers for Trump in 2016.
Believe you, TSE, but that kind of misses my point. Evangelicals always want a bench stuffed with compliant judges and will vote for anybody they think will give them that. So it doesn't matter if there is a vacancy or not. They will support whoever offers them that carrot - in this case Trump. Was true last time, will be true again this time. So politically the sudden appearance of a vacancy ought to be neutral, more or less. No?
It does, the repeal of Roe v. Wade is now in sight, they'll back any GOP candidate for President.
Without wanting to sound morbid, Breyer is 82, Trump in his two terms may well have appointed 4 members of the court, that's an ideological shift that will last the better part of half a century.
The GOP grift is to pretend they will repeal Roe vs Wade but never actually do it.
They had the majority to do it in the early 00s, they didn't do it.
Yes, making Conservative control of the SC unassailable removes a lot of guaranteed votes for Republican politicians. Many of them who probably aren’t even in favour of repealing Roe vs Wade.
Reminds me of New Labour. They got a massive donation from the League Against Cruel Sports in 1997 but didn't ban fox hunting until after 2001 by when they had stiffed them for another huge sum.
If we ever did get PR it would lead to a major realignment, the Corbynite left of the Labour Party would split off and form their own party and some of the Blairites would join the Cameroon Tories in an expanded LDs, while the right of the Tories would create a new party with Farage
Three weeks of strict nationwide lockdown begin today in Israel.
Which is really strange, because the virus doesn't exist / isn't harmful / can be easily eliminated / has been completely cured outside the British Isles / is the exclusive result of trips to Barnard Castle *
For the first time in a week or so, the air here in Seattle is NOT toxic, or even merely unhealthy - it is GOOD!
Starting changing for better yesterday (Fri) but wasn't until after midnight that westerly winds kicked to help mild rainstorm (lucky not much lightening) clear the air. Woke up about 3am, checked the air quality on the internet - then threw open my door & windows, broke out my fans, and let 'em rip.
So my humble abode no long smells like a pub ashtray. AND walking - or just sitting - outside is no longer a health hazard.
Will be taking a looooogish walk in just a bit to breath in fresh air - hope PBers get to do the same!
OF course that means keeping mask handy for when you encounter fellow fresh-air fiends. However, that's NOT a problem, a least way I see it things. Only a VERY small sacrifice for public health - and my own.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
A lockdown is not worth it with the low fatality rate of covid -19 , it really isn't.
I agree. I think the government strategy is to frighten people into keeping their guard up, wearing masks, keeping their distance etc, in order to prevent a lock down.
Although deaths are rising they are at a much lower level than in the first wave, as are hospitalisations. With an R of 1.5 at a low level they are manageable with tweaks rather than a total lockdown in my opinion.
If the increase in R is mainly because of schools reopening I wonder if it will drop down again after a week or two.
Which would give us an R of about or below 1 but with a higher number of infected than we had in the summer.
For the first time in a week or so, the air here in Seattle is NOT toxic, or even merely unhealthy - it is GOOD!
Starting changing for better yesterday (Fri) but wasn't until after midnight that westerly winds kicked to help mild rainstorm (lucky not much lightening) clear the air. Woke up about 3am, checked the air quality on the internet - then threw open my door & windows, broke out my fans, and let 'em rip.
So my humble abode no long smells like a pub ashtray. AND walking - or just sitting - outside is no longer a health hazard.
Will be taking a looooogish walk in just a bit to breath in fresh air - hope PBers get to do the same!
OF course that means keeping mask handy for when you encounter fellow fresh-air fiends. However, that's NOT a problem, a least way I see it things. Only a VERY small sacrifice for public health - and my own.
'Woke up about 3am'
Are you trying to say you were a bit - what's the word? - sleepless?
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Not sure why, he's more of a leaver than Johnson isn't he?
Tory MPs need to make plain that if a new national lockdown is announced they will bring down the government. There’s enough to see through this madness surely.
Tory MPs need to make plain that if a new national lockdown is announced they will bring down the government. There’s enough to see through this madness surely.
Tricky when Labour is supporting the gov on restrictions
So the economy is in a hole and we're about to lock down again, furlough scheme is coming to an end and we're contemplating No Deal.
Something is going to have to give, the Government has boxed itself into a corner
I can't see a short circuit breaker working, all people do at this stage is think 'wahay' in the few days before the rules come into effect, and 'wahay' once restrictions are lifted - often acting within the rules, but the strong rebounds in infection rates that result mean 2 week lockdown would mean barely any gain at all.
We need a steady hand on the restriction tiller, infections rising with R around 1.2 afford more chance to act, not slowly, but at least steadilly than the R of 3 in early March.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
I have just spent a week on the Sleat Peninsular on Skye, painting newts; in the gorgeous and unprecedented sun. I can report that the food at the Duisdale is now better than the food at Kinloch. Both are great.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Sunak is just flavour of the month. Unlike most of these though he is a real long-term contender. It's a very rare person that can come from obscurity and lead successfully - Cameron is an obvious case.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
Tory MPs need to make plain that if a new national lockdown is announced they will bring down the government. There’s enough to see through this madness surely.
Tricky when Labour is supporting the gov on restrictions
It’s mind blowing that there is such a vacuum of political leadership making the libertarian case for living with the virus. Starmer’s career deserves to wither on the vine for the cowardice he’s showing on this. And whoever leads the Lib Dem’s... meanwhile all the “honourable” Tories are getting wound up over the poxy IMB, which is utterly irrelevant in the grand scheme, while democratic freedoms are being undermined in the name of covid without even any parliamentary debate.
Some here are still struggling to tell the difference between covid 5G conspiracy theorists and those who see the risk as not worth the cure, economically, socially, medically and democratically.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Sunak is just flavour of the month. Unlike most of these though he is a real long-term contender. It's a very rare person that can come from obscurity and lead successfully - Cameron is an obvious case.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
Is that all they have to choose from each would be a disaster, Gove possibly most competent But what a paucity of talent.
I have just spent a week on the Sleat Peninsular on Skye, painting newts; in the gorgeous and unprecedented sun. I can report that the food at the Duisdale is now better than the food at Kinloch. Both are great.
You're welcome.
Do newts need painting? And what colour did you paint them?
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Not sure why, he's more of a leaver than Johnson isn't he?
They both backed Leave but Sunak would be more prepared to shift to an EEA style Brexit than Johnson I suspect
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
The Government is being responsible. The fact is they're caught trying to deal with an irresistable force and an immoveable objection simultaneously. They're trying to deal with COVID19 and the Economy, its not possible to deal with one and not the other which leads to "inconsistencies".
If you try and only deal with one issue then you can be clear and simple and consistent . . . and the rest of society will burn as a result.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Sunak is just flavour of the month. Unlike most of these though he is a real long-term contender. It's a very rare person that can come from obscurity and lead successfully - Cameron is an obvious case.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
Sunak strikes me as the Tory David Miliband to Boris' Gordon Brown ie constantly tipped to take over but it never happened. We are now ten years into Tory government so the equivalent of 2007 in the New Labour years when Brown took over as PM despite some seeing Miliband as Blair's true heir.
Gove is unelectable so it would not be him, he is a behind the scenes figure not a frontman, Patel might be the next Tory leader if Boris lost the next election and be Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer but I cannot see her taking over as PM in government
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
If it's any consolation the lovely Scots people I met up here in Skye have no clue what the Scottish government's rules really mean, either. Rule of six, but two households, on a croquet lawn, wearing cellophane? You what?
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Tory MPs need to make plain that if a new national lockdown is announced they will bring down the government. There’s enough to see through this madness surely.
Tricky when Labour is supporting the gov on restrictions
It’s mind blowing that there is such a vacuum of political leadership making the libertarian case for living with the virus. Starmer’s career deserves to wither on the vine for the cowardice he’s showing on this. And whoever leads the Lib Dem’s... meanwhile all the “honourable” Tories are getting wound up over the poxy IMB, which is utterly irrelevant in the grand scheme, while democratic freedoms are being undermined in the name of covid without even any parliamentary debate.
Some here are still struggling to tell the difference between covid 5G conspiracy theorists and those who see the risk as not worth the cure, economically, socially, medically and democratically.
Serious question - what percentage of the public and / or MPs actually support the libertarian case on this? If there isn't a libertarian critical mass on issues that seem to be no-brainers - a British equivalent to the First Amendment, for instance - then would we really expect to see one on an issue where life and limb as well as principles are at stake? All the polling I've seen shows the public is more cautious than the government, not less.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Sunak is just flavour of the month. Unlike most of these though he is a real long-term contender. It's a very rare person that can come from obscurity and lead successfully - Cameron is an obvious case.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
Is that all they have to choose from each would be a disaster, Gove possibly most competent But what a paucity of talent.
There are clearly other choices, some of them quite good. In rough descending order of those obviously in the frame Hunt, Hancock, Shapps, Raab, Tugendhat, Javid. Then there are a fair few less obvious candidates - some of whom could be good - Mordaunt for example.
Overall the Tory party is in a relatively good position vis-a-vis the other parties in its depth of talent.
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
If it's any consolation the lovely Scots people I met up here in Skye have no clue what the Scottish government's rules really mean, either. Rule of six, but two households, on a croquet lawn, wearing cellophane? You what?
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
In Spain family/friends social gatherings are one of the main drivers of the increased infection rates.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
The polling is a genuine puzzle to me. In real life I interact with a wide age range of people and I know not a single person who is not completely outraged by the hysterical reaction of the government. I don’t know whether my social and familial group is extraordinarily atypical or if the polling is wrong.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
Yes, I think it is now provably obvious that the Swedish method was the superior route. Minimal lockdown (but still some social distancing), accept there will be deaths, avert the worst economic damage.
The Swedes were right, every single other western country (and many Asian, African etc countries) were wrong
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
Well if it spreads COVID it's a good reason why they shouldn't do it. The latest NE restrictions say you should only socialise with members of your own household. Have they not heard of single people?
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
In Spain family/friends social gatherings are one of the main drivers of the increased infection rates.
You miss the point. I and many others don’t care any more.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Sunak is just flavour of the month. Unlike most of these though he is a real long-term contender. It's a very rare person that can come from obscurity and lead successfully - Cameron is an obvious case.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
Sunak strikes me as the Tory David Miliband to Boris' Gordon Brown ie constantly tipped to take over but it never happened. We are now ten years into Tory government so the equivalent of 2007 in the New Labour years when Brown took over as PM despite some seeing Miliband as Blair's true heir.
Gove is unelectable so it would not be him, he is a behind the scenes figure not a frontman, Patel might be the next Tory leader if Boris lost the next election and be Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer but I cannot see her taking over as PM in government
Quite like your Sunak analogy. But he's not as ready as DMill should have been, and thus it's very hard to make the comparison.
Gove is electable if Labour have a poor leader - Starmer doesn't seem to be that. Patel has a lot of work to do to mend fences - both within the party and without. Fences can be mended though, and she has some really good qualities like her energy and enthusiasm.
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
If it's any consolation the lovely Scots people I met up here in Skye have no clue what the Scottish government's rules really mean, either. Rule of six, but two households, on a croquet lawn, wearing cellophane? You what?
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
Is Sean T around in one of his many forms? In the "Telegraph" magazine today Martin Amis is quoted as saying: "There are no other examples of a writer child from a writer parent. It makes me feel freakish". Any thoughts?.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
The Government is being responsible. The fact is they're caught trying to deal with an irresistable force and an immoveable objection simultaneously. They're trying to deal with COVID19 and the Economy, its not possible to deal with one and not the other which leads to "inconsistencies".
If you try and only deal with one issue then you can be clear and simple and consistent . . . and the rest of society will burn as a result.
Pardon me. But why don't they just say that then? Problem is they wanted the economy to return to "normal" just three short weeks ago. And that it was "completely safe" to do so. They gave the distinct Impression it was over. They now seem staggered that this has led to an uptick in the virus. That it is a trade-off is blindingly obvious to most on here. Difficult choices need to be made. But they have never communicated that. Indeed, I have heard people say "when we had the pandemic." At the same time the world was recording record infections. But the government has always preferred cakeism to levelling about the facts.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
Yes, I think it is now provably obvious that the Swedish method was the superior route. Minimal lockdown (but still some social distancing), accept there will be deaths, avert the worst economic damage.
The Swedes were right, every single other western country (and many Asian, African etc countries) were wrong
Hard to compare though. Apparently Swedes stopped going out and started working from home of their own accord. It is also of course much less densely populated than the UK. Our cases (and the Spanish and the French) have spiralled out of nowhere despite apparently getting them under control in the summer.
Quite a bit of discussion earlier about Johnson's plight regarding his living arrangements in Downing Street. It is worth pointing out that he is not obliged to live in either of the flats above No 10 and No 11. When Wilson came back to office in March 1974, he continued to live in Lord North Street and decided against returning to Downing St.I am not sure that Callaghan lived in the flat either.Moreover, until the late 1930s the PM and the Chancellor actually lived in the main rooms of the house - the top floor which now contains the two flats then provided servants' quarters. Were he so inclined, Johnson could surely opt to follow Baldwin, Macdonald, Lloyd George, Asquith et al by taking up residence in some of the main rooms of the house.
Is Sean T around in one of his many forms? In the "Telegraph" magazine today Martin Amis is quoted as saying: "There are no other examples of a writer child from a writer parent. It makes me feel freakish". Any thoughts?.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
In Spain family/friends social gatherings are one of the main drivers of the increased infection rates.
You miss the point. I and many others don’t care any more.
Why do you not care? I know you have secret insider knowledge about the imminent availability of a vaccine but even so surely it is worth keeping a lid on it until it is available?
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
If it's any consolation the lovely Scots people I met up here in Skye have no clue what the Scottish government's rules really mean, either. Rule of six, but two households, on a croquet lawn, wearing cellophane? You what?
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
For the first time in a week or so, the air here in Seattle is NOT toxic, or even merely unhealthy - it is GOOD!
Starting changing for better yesterday (Fri) but wasn't until after midnight that westerly winds kicked to help mild rainstorm (lucky not much lightening) clear the air. Woke up about 3am, checked the air quality on the internet - then threw open my door & windows, broke out my fans, and let 'em rip.
So my humble abode no long smells like a pub ashtray. AND walking - or just sitting - outside is no longer a health hazard.
Will be taking a looooogish walk in just a bit to breath in fresh air - hope PBers get to do the same!
OF course that means keeping mask handy for when you encounter fellow fresh-air fiends. However, that's NOT a problem, a least way I see it things. Only a VERY small sacrifice for public health - and my own.
'Woke up about 3am'
Are you trying to say you were a bit - what's the word? - sleepless?
Indeed. And in Seattle. But unlike movie, had gone to bed very early.
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
If it's any consolation the lovely Scots people I met up here in Skye have no clue what the Scottish government's rules really mean, either. Rule of six, but two households, on a croquet lawn, wearing cellophane? You what?
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
Yes, I think it is now provably obvious that the Swedish method was the superior route. Minimal lockdown (but still some social distancing), accept there will be deaths, avert the worst economic damage.
The Swedes were right, every single other western country (and many Asian, African etc countries) were wrong
South Korea did it best, mask wearing from the start, fewer deaths per head than Sweden and virtually every other western nation while also like Sweden avoiding full lockdown and the resultant damage to the economy
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
In the short term he will remain popular. If Johnson has already pulled the trigger on no deal, he is probably stuffed regardless.
Don't listen to the 'inflation is a positive', arguments either. I remember the late seventies and eighties. High interest rates will follow too. Circa 1991 my mortgage was around 18%. If that sort of rate returns you can use TSE's 'Stepmom on Pornhub' idea to explain that one away.
Is Sean T around in one of his many forms? In the "Telegraph" magazine today Martin Amis is quoted as saying: "There are no other examples of a writer child from a writer parent. It makes me feel freakish". Any thoughts?.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
Yes, I think it is now provably obvious that the Swedish method was the superior route. Minimal lockdown (but still some social distancing), accept there will be deaths, avert the worst economic damage.
The Swedes were right, every single other western country (and many Asian, African etc countries) were wrong
Hard to compare though. Apparently Swedes stopped going out and started working from home of their own accord. It is also of course much less densely populated than the UK. Our cases (and the Spanish and the French) have spiralled out of nowhere despite apparently getting them under control in the summer.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Not sure why, he's more of a leaver than Johnson isn't he?
Sunak is MP for Richmond, Yorkshire, Wm Hague's old seat. Seems to have established himself with the locals, and without even trying to challenge WH's 14-pint record.
Shagger will do his very best to avoid any kind of national lockdown, and then his very best to avoid doing it now. Once again we hear that care homes are being told they will have to take covid-positive residents back from hospitals. Once again we have no way to track the infected once identified. What will be different this time though is that "go to work don't go to work" which was a funny Matt Lucas spoof last time is just the accepted normal now.
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
If it's any consolation the lovely Scots people I met up here in Skye have no clue what the Scottish government's rules really mean, either. Rule of six, but two households, on a croquet lawn, wearing cellophane? You what?
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
Is Sean T around in one of his many forms? In the "Telegraph" magazine today Martin Amis is quoted as saying: "There are no other examples of a writer child from a writer parent. It makes me feel freakish". Any thoughts?.
Trollope!
I only asked.
I confess I was a bit pleased with this
There must be many examples.
Grahame Greene was related to Robert Louis Stevenson for example.
So hospitalisations are going back up again (England is back at where it was in July?) and the death rate is also trending up.
If I have misunderstood please do correct me but that's not good at all
It's not, as we were talking about a month ago watching cases explode in Europe, the government had two weeks to implement procedures to keep things under control. Unfortunately that hasn't happened and we're staring into the abyss of a new national lockdown.
Hope beyond this you and your family are doing well mate.
Put an offer down on a flat (to rent) but unfortunately it was rejected, so the search continues.
Yeah all is good, hope everything is good for you as well mate.
Shame about the flat, where is it? I've heard that rents in London are in free fall so hopefully you find somewhere soon. I know a friend of mine just renegotiated her rent in Hackney down by 20% for the period of lockdown where she had been withholding the rent and for the next year. She's absolutely ruthless though and basically said it was this is she was happy to be evicted and he would get nothing until then so he just had to live with it.
Good for her! Evictions ban ends tomorrow. Too many seem to think rents are a one way bet. And that the "going rate" is what they've got away with in the past.
It's a buyer market and no estate agent is going to convince me otherwise.
I do enjoy your posts, a "tear it all down" vibe is what I get from you, I like it
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
Yes, I think it is now provably obvious that the Swedish method was the superior route. Minimal lockdown (but still some social distancing), accept there will be deaths, avert the worst economic damage.
The Swedes were right, every single other western country (and many Asian, African etc countries) were wrong
All the stuff that Byronic and Eadric used to spout endlessly on about Sweden was bound to turn out to be rubbish, in the end.
Is Sean T around in one of his many forms? In the "Telegraph" magazine today Martin Amis is quoted as saying: "There are no other examples of a writer child from a writer parent. It makes me feel freakish". Any thoughts?.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
It looks like Eat Out To Help Out is coming back to bite him - and we will see shortly when the furlough scheme ends, how his popularity might change.
You think he didn't foresee the inflation thing? He's a clever cookie. It widens his choices - he can save a shedload on govt index linked obligations, or look personally bountiful by waiving the effect of eotho, or a mixture (waive for wages, not for indexed bonds).
No not inflation, I refer to it perhaps causing the idea of the virus having gone away and putting into place the idea to ignore social distancing. Perhaps I'm reaching.
I think so. The absence of significant numbers of cases and deaths were causing people to get out more anyway.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
The problem is that this attitude - and I accept I might be reaching - leads to cases going up again.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
It would be interesting to know what has caused the recent rapid growth in cases, after all we spent several weeks after 4 July with cases going nowhere. Given that people are talking about recent local spikes being due to household transmission, I guess it might have been allowing 30 people to mix. I've had no people in my flat since March apart from some heating engineers (which was a bit of a necessity) and have been to half a dozen garden socials so I'm at a bit of a loss as to why people feel the need to huddle together in each others' houses. Just grow up and learn to stand on your own two feet.
Why don’t you grow up and let other people live how they want in their own homes
In Spain family/friends social gatherings are one of the main drivers of the increased infection rates.
You miss the point. I and many others don’t care any more.
Why do you not care? I know you have secret insider knowledge about the imminent availability of a vaccine but even so surely it is worth keeping a lid on it until it is available?
Because I look at the evidence which indicates that this is not a Justinian plague as originally feared but something that causes perhaps 8 weeks of excess mortality, and potentially a post viral syndrome with as yet unspecified severity, prevalence and duration.
The vaccine is useful not because it’s something that magically saves half a million lives in the UK (although it will of course save lives) but because without it the unthinking multitudes will remain too fearful to notice what’s been taken away from them.
The problem we might have is when Sunak takes over, we go back to where we were.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
Sunak might win back a few middle class Remainers from Starmer in London and the South but at the same time he would also likely lose some working class Leavers in the Red Wall to Farage and the Brexit Party and Labour
Sunak is just flavour of the month. Unlike most of these though he is a real long-term contender. It's a very rare person that can come from obscurity and lead successfully - Cameron is an obvious case.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
Sunak strikes me as the Tory David Miliband to Boris' Gordon Brown ie constantly tipped to take over but it never happened. We are now ten years into Tory government so the equivalent of 2007 in the New Labour years when Brown took over as PM despite some seeing Miliband as Blair's true heir.
Gove is unelectable so it would not be him, he is a behind the scenes figure not a frontman, Patel might be the next Tory leader if Boris lost the next election and be Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer but I cannot see her taking over as PM in government
Quite like your Sunak analogy. But he's not as ready as DMill should have been, and thus it's very hard to make the comparison.
Gove is electable if Labour have a poor leader - Starmer doesn't seem to be that. Patel has a lot of work to do to mend fences - both within the party and without. Fences can be mended though, and she has some really good qualities like her energy and enthusiasm.
Key thing is that Gove would definitely keep Cummings in place- whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is in the eye of the beholder. Hard to see anyone else doing so.
Given that the government's choices are to do a deal (and annoy the Faragists), not do a deal (and annoy people who like eating and having a job) or not do a deal then do one (and annoy everyone), Boris might as well stay on, for all the good it's likely to do the governing party.
Comments
Although deaths are rising they are at a much lower level than in the first wave, as are hospitalisations. With an R of 1.5 at a low level they are manageable with tweaks rather than a total lockdown in my opinion.
I mean the other issue that needs to be addressed is that if we do we get a vaccine is what do we do to those who refuse to have the vaccine, because you can be sure the anti-vaxxers won't be quiet.
Which is really strange, because the virus doesn't exist / isn't harmful / can be easily eliminated /
has been completely cured outside the British Isles / is the exclusive result of trips to Barnard Castle *
* Delete according to your preferred delusion.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1305225179564519424
"We looked at the [Imperial (i.e. Ferguson's] model and we could see that the variables put into the model were quite extreme… Why did they choose variables that gave extreme results? So we were always quite doubtful. We did some work on our own that pointed in quite a different direction. In the end, it proved that our prognosis was much closer to the real situation. Probably because we used data that was coming from the actual situation , and not from some kind of theoretical model."
A yet, here we are. Still relying on the model.
A senior Tory and former minister has said the media should "stop whingeing about not meeting granny at Christmas".
He also said it served people right if they "cram themselves into a ghastly Ryanair flight or pack a pub" and catch coronavirus.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lord-blencathra-tells-media-to-stop-whingeing-about-missing-granny-at-christmas-12075414?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Extraordinary scenes
"What happened to the Rule of Six" was asked above - it fell apart before launch because of its inherent contradictions and screamingly hypocritical exceptions. The major difference this time is that people don't give a shit having been conditioned to accept that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing. Perhaps this was the Cummings Herd Immunity master plan: make people utterly distrustful of the institution of government so that you can do herd immunity by default and reshape the state to your own plan.
Someone who keeps handing out free money and free food and booze will be tough to beat!
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/i-was-right-says-prof-who-predicted-pandemic-would-play-itself-out-in-70-days/
For the first time in a week or so, the air here in Seattle is NOT toxic, or even merely unhealthy - it is GOOD!
Starting changing for better yesterday (Fri) but wasn't until after midnight that westerly winds kicked to help mild rainstorm (lucky not much lightening) clear the air. Woke up about 3am, checked the air quality on the internet - then threw open my door & windows, broke out my fans, and let 'em rip.
So my humble abode no long smells like a pub ashtray. AND walking - or just sitting - outside is no longer a health hazard.
Will be taking a looooogish walk in just a bit to breath in fresh air - hope PBers get to do the same!
OF course that means keeping mask handy for when you encounter fellow fresh-air fiends. However, that's NOT a problem, a least way I see it things. Only a VERY small sacrifice for public health - and my own.
Something is going to have to give, the Government has boxed itself into a corner
Which would give us an R of about or below 1 but with a higher number of infected than we had in the summer.
Are you trying to say you were a bit - what's the word? - sleepless?
https://twitter.com/AnthonyTilghman/status/1307360544559706113?s=19
We need a steady hand on the restriction tiller, infections rising with R around 1.2 afford more chance to act, not slowly, but at least steadilly than the R of 3 in early March.
People won't live locked down forever, VE Day weekend when it was gloriously sunny and we were still in lockdown is when it began to end for me, most houses on my street were out in their gardens and at least half of them had visitors despite it being illegal still at the time.
You're welcome.
We've seen other short-term favs crash and burn - I'm not sure how short Williamson traded in May's last weeks, but it certainly wasn't the nine gazillion to one that is his cur rent price (yes I know actually layable at 1000)
Sunak is very well placed, but he needs to grow a bit - I wouldn't for example instantly recognise his voice if I heard it on the radio. He needs too to navigate the right pickle of the economy. And then finally he needs to actually have proponents in the parliamentary ranks.
If Boris fell under a Boris bus today my money would be on Gove (Safe choice) or Patel (Risky, but probably better)
But is he Cameron? We will see
The UK government is not merely responsible for the rising COVID in the UK - it is controlling the rise of the virus across Europe.......
It was to buy time to build medical capacity.
That has been achieved - testing, PPE, hospital space, ventilators and so on.
Besides which the number of infected people is about 5% of what it was at the peak.
Do you think that requires another lockdown ?
Because a lockdown is not without cost - it has costs to the economy and it has costs to society and it has costs to people's health.
Some here are still struggling to tell the difference between covid 5G conspiracy theorists and those who see the risk as not worth the cure, economically, socially, medically and democratically.
The Government clearly thinks this is an issue, hence their change in tack this week.
I just don't see how we avoid the economy being in a hole for a long period of time and I can only blame Government incompetence for that. They started briefing about getting back to work, they decided to let groups of 30 meet, they said get out and use the pubs.
We will see what happens - but I think perhaps people being scared to go out might be seen as better in the long term
If you try and only deal with one issue then you can be clear and simple and consistent . . . and the rest of society will burn as a result.
Gove is unelectable so it would not be him, he is a behind the scenes figure not a frontman, Patel might be the next Tory leader if Boris lost the next election and be Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer but I cannot see her taking over as PM in government
Sturgeon is generally quite popular in a Merkel-esque kind of way (female, cautious, boring, reliable). I am entirely unsure she is the firebrand needed to lead Scotland to Indy. She does not inspire, she calms - a bit.
Overall the Tory party is in a relatively good position vis-a-vis the other parties in its depth of talent.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0jur4htqeh/YouGov Times VI 17 Sep 2020.pdf
I’m not getting my violin out for him. Too much competition.
The Swedes were right, every single other western country (and many Asian, African etc countries) were wrong
Gove is electable if Labour have a poor leader - Starmer doesn't seem to be that. Patel has a lot of work to do to mend fences - both within the party and without. Fences can be mended though, and she has some really good qualities like her energy and enthusiasm.
But why don't they just say that then?
Problem is they wanted the economy to return to "normal" just three short weeks ago. And that it was "completely safe" to do so.
They gave the distinct Impression it was over.
They now seem staggered that this has led to an uptick in the virus.
That it is a trade-off is blindingly obvious to most on here. Difficult choices need to be made. But they have never communicated that. Indeed, I have heard people say "when we had the pandemic." At the same time the world was recording record infections.
But the government has always preferred cakeism to levelling about the facts.
Don't listen to the 'inflation is a positive', arguments either. I remember the late seventies and eighties. High interest rates will follow too. Circa 1991 my mortgage was around 18%. If that sort of rate returns you can use TSE's 'Stepmom on Pornhub' idea to explain that one away.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
Despite unlocking at a peak of deaths (start of May) cases fell for a month and deaths fell for two months before each in turn exploding upwards.
There is a lot we don't know about how Covid spreads.
There must be many examples.
Grahame Greene was related to Robert Louis Stevenson for example.
The vaccine is useful not because it’s something that magically saves half a million lives in the UK (although it will of course save lives) but because without it the unthinking multitudes will remain too fearful to notice what’s been taken away from them.
Given that the government's choices are to do a deal (and annoy the Faragists), not do a deal (and annoy people who like eating and having a job) or not do a deal then do one (and annoy everyone), Boris might as well stay on, for all the good it's likely to do the governing party.
Heat of stone etc.