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A back down by Boris on his “break international law Bill” ? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594

    The mistake he's making there (so so many liberal elite commentators make it) is to assume the driver is money: the 2008 economic crisis.

    It absolutely isn't. It's about identity and culture.

    When will they learn? Will they ever learn?

    Really? I thought Conservatives detested identity politics?
    They do. Most Conservatives believe the left started the culture/identity wars.
  • @HYUFD, you are going to like this:

    https://twitter.com/restorationpac/status/1305829037210771456?s=21


    Looks like a super high quality polling methodology
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    eristdoof said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's not even a new cartoon - just a retweet of one that appeared in December 2019 after the General Election. Which makes it look even more mental in that context.
    The willingness of some Germans to compare Britain voting to leave the EU (and then having the audacity to carry it through) to their own Nazi past is quite gobsmacking.
    No country in Europe knows better than Germany the consequenses of following a populist demogogue with contempt of the rule of law.
    Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.
    "It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes. "

    There are very few Germans who do this and I am surprised Der Spiegel has published this cartoon. They are a well respected and serious centre left political magazine.
    Why are you surprised?

    What other newly-elected party leader in a modern democracy has conducted a purge of elected big names to rival the one that Johnson did? Not just out of the cabinet, but out of the party?

    What other prime minister in a modern democracy has shut down Parliament for his own convenience?

    The ends might justify the means in both cases (I don't think they do, but they might), but they put Johnson a long way off the reservation. And German journalists and cartoonists might have more reason to notice straws in the wind than others.

    It's not just about Brexit.
    Agreed with your depiction of the moral delinquency of Johnson and the Conservative Party. Anyone who supports them in their current guise should be ashamed of themselves. That is not a partisan comment. But it is important to confront what Johnson and the Conservative Party actually are, not relative to some awful historical reference.
    Only about 16% of the electorate neither voted for Corbyn in 2017 or Boris in 2019
    HYUFD maths strikes again!
    40% plus 44% makes 84%
    Maths Fail!

    Using your argument anyone could claim that 86% of the population either voted for May in 2017 or Johnson in 2019. 42%+44%=84%

    Lets go one step further. 121% of the population voted for Cameron in 2015 or May in 2017 or Johnson in 2019.
    No as the vast majority of May 2017 voters also voted Johnson in 2019, only a small minority of Corbyn 2017 voters voted Johnson in 2019.

    That also applies to Cameron 2015 voters too.

    A few Cameron 2015 or May 2017 voters voted LD in 2019 but they were a small minority the vast majority voted Tory in 2019
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's not even a new cartoon - just a retweet of one that appeared in December 2019 after the General Election. Which makes it look even more mental in that context.
    The willingness of some Germans to compare Britain voting to leave the EU (and then having the audacity to carry it through) to their own Nazi past is quite gobsmacking.
    No country in Europe knows better than Germany the consequenses of following a populist demogogue with contempt of the rule of law.
    Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.
    I am surprised some on here haven't said 'well at least Hitler was competent' such is the loathing for Boris amongst many posters at present
    This is an attrocious post. You are claiming that people criticising Johnson are suggesting that he was worse than Hitler. No one on this forum has suggested that.

    Furthermore the implication is that people are not allowed to criticise a British Prime Minister. You should think carefully about where shutting down political criticism leads (which has occurred in many countries post 1945).
    There is a distinction between criticism of policy and personal loathing which some have forgotten the distinction between it seems
    The thing is people are getting upset about a cartoon (sounds familiar?). But when Johnson - sadly not a cartoonist but currently the actual fricking prime minister - compares the EU to Hitler it's all part of his lovable charm to his followers.

    But

    Lokah Samastah Sukhino Bhavantu


  • Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.

    The cartoon doesn't "compare them [Germans in the 30s and 40s] to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU". You are totally misrepresenting it. It is doing something completely different: comparing the style of Boris Johnson - populism, denial of truth, lambasting his own previous positions, breaching trust, stirring up his supporters to blame outsiders and sinister foreigners - with that of Hitler.

    It's certainly a rather strong comparison, but one which in a cartoon is fair enough, because it contains a grain of truth, although no-one is remotely suggesting that Boris is as evil as Hitler. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU, which no-one in the EU has ever disputed, even though they regret it (or used to, I expect the latest antics of the UK have made them welcome it).
    It's surprising how much cartoons can touch a nerve. (I remember Adams at the Evening Standard stirring up much fury on here when he was occasionally disobliging about Theresa May.) Cartoons really serve the purpose of the medieval court jester - poking fun at the great and the good in a manner no one else would get away with.
    The really great political cartoons can do a lot more than fun-poking. At their best they can express the thing that was otherwise a dim awareness. Take (say) Low's pre-War cartoons. And exaggerated imagery is part of that.

    You get a lot of dross for each gem, though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's not even a new cartoon - just a retweet of one that appeared in December 2019 after the General Election. Which makes it look even more mental in that context.
    The willingness of some Germans to compare Britain voting to leave the EU (and then having the audacity to carry it through) to their own Nazi past is quite gobsmacking.
    No country in Europe knows better than Germany the consequenses of following a populist demogogue with contempt of the rule of law.
    Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.
    I am surprised some on here haven't said 'well at least Hitler was competent' such is the loathing for Boris amongst many posters at present
    Hitler wasn't competent.

    So another similarity.
    He was competent in conquering most of Europe, genocide of much of the Jewish population of Europe and reducing German unemployment after WW1.

    Most of what he was competent in was evil in intent but he was competent in doing it
    Hitler thought he was a military genius, but he was not. Rather like some on PB .... ;)
    Only Julius Caesar and Napoleon's armies conquered as much of continental Europe as Hitler did, until he invaded Russia he was an effective military leader
    Your Honour, the Prosecution rests .....
    Being an effective military leader simply means you win a lot of wars and battles, it does not have to be a just war, it can include a war of conquest as much as of defence
  • I agree.

    The reactions of the PB Tories to Johnson's gyrations has been interesting to watch. I wonder how it will go when reality finally kicks in over the lead up to Xmas?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    VONC in Lib Dem leader of BCP Council succeeds - 39/33, with two abstentions.

  • No, but it's a silly argument which could equally be used to show that people from any number of countries have no fundamental differences between them.

    But he's not simply saying that either (you have to read the whole Twitter thread, obv.). He's saying that the way in which the English and Scottish electorates have diverged in recent years isn't due to any great differences in their political and social positions, but that they have each been stirred up by populist politicians exploiting real or perceived grievances by blaming the EU and England respectively. I don't know to what extent I'd agree, but it's an interesting and thought-provoking take. It certainly would explain the uncomfortable similarity between the denial of practical reality of the Brexiteers and that of the SNP in pushing their simplistic nostrums.
    So we just need to wave a magic wand and make everyone see themselves as British, and we’ll all live happily ever after?

  • No, but it's a silly argument which could equally be used to show that people from any number of countries have no fundamental differences between them.

    But he's not simply saying that either (you have to read the whole Twitter thread, obv.). He's saying that the way in which the English and Scottish electorates have diverged in recent years isn't due to any great differences in their political and social positions, but that they have each been stirred up by populist politicians exploiting real or perceived grievances by blaming the EU and England respectively. I don't know to what extent I'd agree, but it's an interesting and thought-provoking take. It certainly would explain the uncomfortable similarity between the denial of practical reality of the Brexiteers and that of the SNP in pushing their simplistic nostrums.
    So we just need to wave a magic wand and make everyone see themselves as British, and we’ll all live happily ever after?
    I don't think he's providing any magic spells to put the genies back in their bottles.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's not even a new cartoon - just a retweet of one that appeared in December 2019 after the General Election. Which makes it look even more mental in that context.
    The willingness of some Germans to compare Britain voting to leave the EU (and then having the audacity to carry it through) to their own Nazi past is quite gobsmacking.
    No country in Europe knows better than Germany the consequenses of following a populist demogogue with contempt of the rule of law.
    Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.
    I am surprised some on here haven't said 'well at least Hitler was competent' such is the loathing for Boris amongst many posters at present
    Hitler wasn't competent.

    So another similarity.
    Hitler was very competent indeed when it came to getting rid of internal opposition.

  • Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.

    The cartoon doesn't "compare them [Germans in the 30s and 40s] to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU". You are totally misrepresenting it. It is doing something completely different: comparing the style of Boris Johnson - populism, denial of truth, lambasting his own previous positions, breaching trust, stirring up his supporters to blame outsiders and sinister foreigners - with that of Hitler.

    It's certainly a rather strong comparison, but one which in a cartoon is fair enough, because it contains a grain of truth, although no-one is remotely suggesting that Boris is as evil as Hitler. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU, which no-one in the EU has ever disputed, even though they regret it (or used to, I expect the latest antics of the UK have made them welcome it).
    It's surprising how much cartoons can touch a nerve. (I remember Adams at the Evening Standard stirring up much fury on here when he was occasionally disobliging about Theresa May.) Cartoons really serve the purpose of the medieval court jester - poking fun at the great and the good in a manner no one else would get away with.
    The really great political cartoons can do a lot more than fun-poking. At their best they can express the thing that was otherwise a dim awareness. Take (say) Low's pre-War cartoons. And exaggerated imagery is part of that.

    You get a lot of dross for each gem, though.
    Good point. I wonder how Low's cartoons were viewed in their day, considering many (the majority?) thought Neville a fine chap and Appeasement the incontrovertibly sensible approach. I bet Low was widely regarded as dangerous maverick and trouble maker at the time.
  • The mistake he's making there (so so many liberal elite commentators make it) is to assume the driver is money: the 2008 economic crisis.

    It absolutely isn't. It's about identity and culture.

    When will they learn? Will they ever learn?

    Really? I thought Conservatives detested identity politics?
    Of course they do. They wouldn't make a big fuss about a night of singing GSTQ and waving flegs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137


    No, but it's a silly argument which could equally be used to show that people from any number of countries have no fundamental differences between them.

    But he's not simply saying that either (you have to read the whole Twitter thread, obv.). He's saying that the way in which the English and Scottish electorates have diverged in recent years isn't due to any great differences in their political and social positions, but that they have each been stirred up by populist politicians exploiting real or perceived grievances by blaming the EU and England respectively. I don't know to what extent I'd agree, but it's an interesting and thought-provoking take. It certainly would explain the uncomfortable similarity between the denial of practical reality of the Brexiteers and that of the SNP in pushing their simplistic nostrums.
    So we just need to wave a magic wand and make everyone see themselves as British, and we’ll all live happily ever after?
    You can be English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish as well as British, you can also be European without wanting to be part of the EU
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited September 2020
    "David Cameron was ‘chomping on cigars’ over ‘endless bottles of wine’ the weekend after the Brexit vote, claims a former minister’s wife. Sasha Swire also alleges that Mr Cameron’s wife Samantha was only able to join him for his resignation speech after a large negroni cocktail. She makes the claims in her forthcoming bombshell book about her life as the wife of former Foreign Office minister Sir Hugo Swire."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8736673/Sasha-Swire-claims-former-Prime-Minister-incandescent-anger-Brexit-vote.html

  • No, but it's a silly argument which could equally be used to show that people from any number of countries have no fundamental differences between them.

    But he's not simply saying that either (you have to read the whole Twitter thread, obv.). He's saying that the way in which the English and Scottish electorates have diverged in recent years isn't due to any great differences in their political and social positions, but that they have each been stirred up by populist politicians exploiting real or perceived grievances by blaming the EU and England respectively. I don't know to what extent I'd agree, but it's an interesting and thought-provoking take. It certainly would explain the uncomfortable similarity between the denial of practical reality of the Brexiteers and that of the SNP in pushing their simplistic nostrums.
    It's about framing the discussion. Following on from the example of Thatcher, in gaining the British rebate, all subsequent British PMs saw attending European summits, in part, as a media opportunity to be seen to be going in to bat for Britain. But this was to accept a framing that Britain was in a struggle against Europe, rather than part of a collective cooperative endeavour. The framing makes the case for Brexit.

    The framing works even if the country is doing well, though I do think that the Great Financial Crash has increased discontent and made people look for alternatives to the status quo to a greater extent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    edited September 2020
    To compare our PM to Hitler is absolutely scandalous.
    With his love of boosterist grandstanding, inimicability to questioning, complex, to say the least, love life, estrangement from the truth, flip flopping often contradictory political views, knee jerk authoritarianism, liability to switch sides when it is convenient and complete lack of any real achievements in policy terms, there is another contemporaneous figure he has a lot more in common with.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    dixiedean said:

    To compare our PM to Hitler is absolutely scandalous.
    With his love of grandstanding, inimicability to questioning, complex, to say the least love life, estrangement from the truth, flip flopping often contradictory political views, liabilllity to switch sides when it is convenient and complete lack of any real achievements in policy terms, there is another contemporaneous figure he has a lot more in common with.

    Zaphod Beeblebrox?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    Andy_JS said:

    The mistake he's making there (so so many liberal elite commentators make it) is to assume the driver is money: the 2008 economic crisis.

    It absolutely isn't. It's about identity and culture.

    When will they learn? Will they ever learn?

    Really? I thought Conservatives detested identity politics?
    They do. Most Conservatives believe the left started the culture/identity wars.
    They really should bone up on the British Isles Civil Wars.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited September 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    "David Cameron was ‘chomping on cigars’ over ‘endless bottles of wine’ the weekend after the Brexit vote, claims a former minister’s wife. Sasha Swire also alleges that Mr Cameron’s wife Samantha was only able to join him for his resignation speech after a large negroni cocktail. She makes the claims in her forthcoming bombshell book about her life as the wife of former Foreign Office minister Sir Hugo Swire."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8736673/Sasha-Swire-claims-former-Prime-Minister-incandescent-anger-Brexit-vote.html

    LOL! That was the weekend of 25th/26th June 2016 when HMG basically disappeared and Faisal Islam declared "there is no plan"

    Happy days! :D
  • I agree.

    The reactions of the PB Tories to Johnson's gyrations has been interesting to watch. I wonder how it will go when reality finally kicks in over the lead up to Xmas?
    I'm convinced he will be gone early next year. Leaving someone else to clear up his mess.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The mistake he's making there (so so many liberal elite commentators make it) is to assume the driver is money: the 2008 economic crisis.

    It absolutely isn't. It's about identity and culture.

    When will they learn? Will they ever learn?

    Really? I thought Conservatives detested identity politics?
    They do. Most Conservatives believe the left started the culture/identity wars.
    When do you date them to?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    edited September 2020
    HYUFD said:
    Crumbs. That is a total blow out.
    One poll. One State. Caveats apply as always.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Crumbs. That is a total blow out.
    One poll. One State. Caveats apply as always.
    Plus it was a Hillary state now 8% more Democrat than the nation as a whole based on the Hill national poll tonight
  • dixiedean said:

    To compare our PM to Hitler is absolutely scandalous.
    With his love of boosterist grandstanding, inimicability to questioning, complex, to say the least, love life, estrangement from the truth, flip flopping often contradictory political views, knee jerk authoritarianism, liability to switch sides when it is convenient and complete lack of any real achievements in policy terms, there is another contemporaneous figure he has a lot more in common with.

    Does Boris like pasta?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's not even a new cartoon - just a retweet of one that appeared in December 2019 after the General Election. Which makes it look even more mental in that context.
    The willingness of some Germans to compare Britain voting to leave the EU (and then having the audacity to carry it through) to their own Nazi past is quite gobsmacking.
    No country in Europe knows better than Germany the consequenses of following a populist demogogue with contempt of the rule of law.
    Germans during the 1930s and 40s gave their enthusiastic support (not universally of course) to a dictator who openly espoused ridding the world of Jews and passed laws to do so, and cheered a policy of eastward invasion to enslave the citizens of those nations to create space for the German master race. They supported all these things until they lost. It betrays a concerning lack of remorse for the millions of victims of Nazi Germany that some Germans would trivialise these crimes enough to compare them to the democratic decision of Britain to leave the EU - through the EU's own agreed processes.

    And you doing it is equally pathetic for different reasons.
    I am surprised some on here haven't said 'well at least Hitler was competent' such is the loathing for Boris amongst many posters at present
    Hitler wasn't competent.
    So another similarity.
    He was competent in conquering most of Europe, genocide of much of the Jewish population of Europe and reducing German unemployment after WW1.
    Most of what he was competent in was evil in intent but he was competent in doing it
    Hitler thought he was a military genius, but he was not. Rather like some on PB .... ;)
    Only Julius Caesar and Napoleon's armies conquered as much of continental Europe as Hitler did, until he invaded Russia he was an effective military leader
    Your Honour, the Prosecution rests .....
    If "competent" means cheating and breaking the rules and ending up with total chaos, yes Hitler was competent. And so is Cummings.

    The rest of us have to pay the price. Nice people, I don´t think.
  • dixiedean said:

    To compare our PM to Hitler is absolutely scandalous.
    With his love of boosterist grandstanding, inimicability to questioning, complex, to say the least, love life, estrangement from the truth, flip flopping often contradictory political views, knee jerk authoritarianism, liability to switch sides when it is convenient and complete lack of any real achievements in policy terms, there is another contemporaneous figure he has a lot more in common with.

    Does Boris like pasta?
    He’s famously prosecco and antipasto.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The mistake he's making there (so so many liberal elite commentators make it) is to assume the driver is money: the 2008 economic crisis.

    It absolutely isn't. It's about identity and culture.

    When will they learn? Will they ever learn?

    Really? I thought Conservatives detested identity politics?
    They do. Most Conservatives believe the left started the culture/identity wars.
    Odd then, that they seem prepared to fight to the death to defend Brexit - the ultimate identity war.

    Maybe they are just hypocrites?
  • .

    The mistake he's making there (so so many liberal elite commentators make it) is to assume the driver is money: the 2008 economic crisis.

    It absolutely isn't. It's about identity and culture.

    When will they learn? Will they ever learn?

    I don't think he's saying that the driver is money.
    He's saying it's in response to the 2008 crisis, so he is. Because he's suggesting it's anemic economic growth and dwindling income growth that's the driver for Brexit and Scottish independence.

    It's not the explanation for either - it's totally wrong. It's about culture and identity.

    The Liberal Democrats (for one) really struggle with that because to admit it would take them onto ground they'd really rather not go. So they persist in thinking it's just about a bit of cash.
    He’s saying that Nationalist politicians (in many countries) have exploited dissatisfaction with the status quo by blaming an “other” for the country’s ills - in England its been Brussels (for a while) - in Scotland Westminster (for a while) - what the 2008 crash did was give these politicians a more receptive audience. The data says there is very little difference in social attitudes between the countries of the U.K. - despite what the separatists preach. It’s been nationalist politicians in both who have delivered the different outcomes - not fundamentally different voters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    What's going on with all these 90s BritPop stars...

    "Noel Gallagher says he refuses to wear a 'pointless' mask despite UK laws
    Singer argues: ‘If I get the virus it’s on me, it’s not on anyone else’, as Ian Brown calls for ‘no masks no vax’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/sep/15/noel-gallagher-says-he-refuses-to-wear-a-mask-despite-uk-laws
  • Andy_JS said:

    What's going on with all these 90s BritPop stars...

    "Noel Gallagher says he refuses to wear a 'pointless' mask despite UK laws
    Singer argues: ‘If I get the virus it’s on me, it’s not on anyone else’, as Ian Brown calls for ‘no masks no vax’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/sep/15/noel-gallagher-says-he-refuses-to-wear-a-mask-despite-uk-laws

    Drugs are bad mmmmmmokkkkkk.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    dixiedean said:

    To compare our PM to Hitler is absolutely scandalous.
    With his love of boosterist grandstanding, inimicability to questioning, complex, to say the least, love life, estrangement from the truth, flip flopping often contradictory political views, knee jerk authoritarianism, liability to switch sides when it is convenient and complete lack of any real achievements in policy terms, there is another contemporaneous figure he has a lot more in common with.

    Does Boris like pasta?
    He likes a pizza the action
  • Colonial news.

    https://twitter.com/JamaicaGleaner/status/1305917101836771330?s=20

    Bloody nationalists to blame, no doubt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    carnforth said:
    All from Irish American heavy Massachussetts and New York and all Democrats apart from King who is one of the only Republican congressmen left in New York
  • dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Crumbs. That is a total blow out.
    One poll. One State. Caveats apply as always.
    Warner might well think back to his last re-election campaign in 2014 - never behind in a single poll and regularly held whopping double digit leads. Tightened a tiny shade in October but still high single digits easily. In the end, he squeaked in by 0.8% from Ed Gillespie. It was a really freakish result from nowhere - Warner hadn't suffered some awful scandal and the fundamentals looked perfectly sound (albeit in a good GOP year).

    Very unlikely that history would repeat itself - it was a very low turnout midterm, affected by Democrat complacency and Tea Party enthusiasm, and Virginia has continued to trend heavily Democrat in the intervening years. But it is a little warning against complacency in the face of good polls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    Colonial news.

    https://twitter.com/JamaicaGleaner/status/1305917101836771330?s=20

    Bloody nationalists to blame, no doubt.

    More the republican Barbados Labour Party from whom the current PM for the island comes.

    Even the SNP have said they want to keep the Queen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    Crumbs. That is a total blow out.
    One poll. One State. Caveats apply as always.
    Warner might well think back to his last re-election campaign in 2014 - never behind in a single poll and regularly held whopping double digit leads. Tightened a tiny shade in October but still high single digits easily. In the end, he squeaked in by 0.8% from Ed Gillespie. It was a really freakish result from nowhere - Warner hadn't suffered some awful scandal and the fundamentals looked perfectly sound (albeit in a good GOP year).

    Very unlikely that history would repeat itself - it was a very low turnout midterm, affected by Democrat complacency and Tea Party enthusiasm, and Virginia has continued to trend heavily Democrat in the intervening years. But it is a little warning against complacency in the face of good polls.
    Indeed

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305844609910796289?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305853391155978241?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    Andy_JS said:

    What's going on with all these 90s BritPop stars...

    "Noel Gallagher says he refuses to wear a 'pointless' mask despite UK laws
    Singer argues: ‘If I get the virus it’s on me, it’s not on anyone else’, as Ian Brown calls for ‘no masks no vax’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/sep/15/noel-gallagher-says-he-refuses-to-wear-a-mask-despite-uk-laws

    Jedward are fighting the rearguard action.
    So all is OK
    ..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited September 2020
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What's going on with all these 90s BritPop stars...

    "Noel Gallagher says he refuses to wear a 'pointless' mask despite UK laws
    Singer argues: ‘If I get the virus it’s on me, it’s not on anyone else’, as Ian Brown calls for ‘no masks no vax’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/sep/15/noel-gallagher-says-he-refuses-to-wear-a-mask-despite-uk-laws

    Jedward are fighting the rearguard action.
    So all is OK
    ..
    On the other hand they're calling for JK Rowling's latest book to be burnt. Have they ever watched/read Fahrenheit 451?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,703
    edited September 2020
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited September 2020
    FF43 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-could-be-heading-for-another-lockdown-if-the-rule-of-six-fails-to-work

    If you want to go to the pub or have any life at all that's worth living, I suggest you do it now. It's not going to last. We're going into lockdown again.

    Logically one would've thought that we're not going back to April, because the country can't afford another lockdown and it would reduce the economy to rubble. In practice, however, the Government are such a completely useless shower that you can imagine them getting us back there through an escalating series of measures. Put simply, I think the longer the testing problems go on for, and the hospital numbers creep up despite the new measures - both of which look highly likely to happen - the more panicky and desperate they will become.

    On the one hand, reluctance to impose another lockdown because they don't want to extend the furlough and try to borrow another two or three hundred billion quid to hose the burning economy down with money. On the other hand, increasingly loud screaming from under-pressure hospitals and morgues filling back up with octogenarians. The risk from all this is that they don't administer a single killer blow to the economy, but that they do slowly strangle it to death through salami slicing measures like curfews, more and more picky and restrictive masking rules, and more radical social distancing measures (like dumping the rule of six and just telling people to have no social contact at all with anyone outside their own household, except to attend to essential care needs.)

    Meanwhile, it is reported that Sweden - which continues to refuse to force people to go around in masks - has just registered its *lowest* seven-day average value for new cases for six months. The medical profession seems to have made some meaningful progress in terms of treatments for seriously ill patients, but do epidemiologists honestly have a substantially better idea of how this bloody disease works than they did in March?
    I just do not understand why parliamentarians are not demanding a full and frank debate on the strategy here during which we have a full discussion of Sweden.

    The executive is being left to make a mess of this day after day after day.

    I'd start by asking why Carl Heneghan hasn't been co-opted on to SAGE.
    They would never dare to entertain the possibility that the Swedes might've been onto something. The Government, the devolved administrations and the entirety of the Commons are all up to their necks in lockdown and the vast economic and social cost of it, the continuing restrictions, and the possibility of worse still to come. If there were even the suspicion that the whole policy had been worse than useless then it would completely destroy any remaining public confidence in Britain's governance and practically all of the people behind it. Everything would burn except the Monarchy.

    The current mechanism of imposing draconian restrictions until the problem subsides, easing them and then tightening them again in seemingly endless cycles until a vaccine or a cure is found *might* be the least worst option, but if it turns out not to be then the likelihood of the people who've been enforcing it for all this time admitting the fact is absolutely zero.
    This is just wrong. No UK government would have got away with doing a Sweden when no other country in the world was; the pressure to u turn as the numbers rose wouldhave been irresistible. Not that doing a Sweden was as different as people think it was.
    And now? Now we have Sweden as an example.
    Showing us much less than you think

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/sweden/articles/what-life-is-really-like-in-lockdown-hating-sweden/
    Thanks. I've read this now and it didn't tell me anything I didn't know about the Swedish situation. I'm not one of those who think they haven't had a lockdown at all. They have done some things - like no concerts of more than 50 people, no standing at bars, work at home if you can and so on.

    What they didn't do is an almost complete shutdown, then reopen and then start talking about locking down again. It has been a steady as she goes approach.

    As Tegnell has said it is a policy that people will hopefully be able to cope with a while, maybe for a year or two, if there is no vaccine. Can we say that of our situation?

    In hindsight (I guess for you foresight), the Swedish route is less of a slamdunk mistake that it seemed at the time. However, it had the 12th worst Covid death rate in the world the last time I looked, compared with our 6th worst rate. It hasn't done particularly well on the economy either, although again better than us. I would say countries that moved fast into lockdown and reasonably fast out of it like Denmark, Germany and many other countries made the right call to avoid the initial onslaught. That decision will likely still be vindicated regardless of what happens next.
    Having been in Germany and now Italy, the one thing that is striking is that everybody is following the rules and taking precautions. If you walk anywhere, people will do their best to keep their distance, stepping aside where they can, in a way that in the UK I’d say not much more than half of people do. Admittedly I am on the tourist circuit and not in the backstreets of a larger city, but then where I live in the UK is the same.

    My guess is that the Germans naturally follow the rules and have a culture that deprecates stepping out of line, and the Italians - typically less rule observing (from officialdom, although their culture is shockingly conformist as far as social rules are concerned) - have been shocked into compliance by the trauma of their first wave crisis in the north. Indeed in Italy some older people are goIng above and beyond and wearing masks all the time outdoors.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:
    Mmm, cheesesteak. Even Trump cam be right about something...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I continue to believe that selecting Joe Biden was an entirely fortuitous masterstroke.

    A safe and proven pair of hands in a crisis and when up against a total buffoon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Those Tory MPs who are repressing qualms of conscience to follow their leader as he tramples over Britain’s reputation as a law-abiding state might ponder how likely it is that their loyalty will ever be reciprocated. They must have noticed how casually the breach of trust was made, how unburdened Johnson is by the gravity of what he is doing. That is because he is a natural swindler who breaks promises effortlessly. He will reward his most faithful servants with betrayal too, one day.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/15/boris-johnson-brexit-swindle-ireland-eurosceptic-good-friday-agreement
  • I continue to believe that selecting Joe Biden was an entirely fortuitous masterstroke.

    A safe and proven pair of hands in a crisis and when up against a total buffoon.

    I agree, I thought that Biden was a terrible choice (though not as bad as Sanders) but as its progressed the "safe pair of hands" narrative is really building.
  • I continue to believe that selecting Joe Biden was an entirely fortuitous masterstroke.

    A safe and proven pair of hands in a crisis and when up against a total buffoon.

    Has anyone done the SKS = Biden thing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    Andy_JS said:

    "David Cameron was ‘chomping on cigars’ over ‘endless bottles of wine’ the weekend after the Brexit vote, claims a former minister’s wife. Sasha Swire also alleges that Mr Cameron’s wife Samantha was only able to join him for his resignation speech after a large negroni cocktail. She makes the claims in her forthcoming bombshell book about her life as the wife of former Foreign Office minister Sir Hugo Swire."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8736673/Sasha-Swire-claims-former-Prime-Minister-incandescent-anger-Brexit-vote.html

    Cameron was a ridiculously flat-footed politician. After he got his risible "renegotiation" - so dire he was wasn't even allowed to mention it during the Referendum campaign - he should have paused and re-assessed the mood.

    If he had said "the EU isn't serious about change", then recommended that we leave, he would have had a Leave win by 20%. Farage would have been finished, Brexit Party strangled at birth, the Establishment resistance crumbling, He could have walked on water domestically. He might even have got the EU to take him seriously whilst negotiating the divorce. Even if not, it would only have added extra glitter to his "we did the right thing" halo.

    He could have gone down as a great Conservative PM. Instead of "you know, that one before May...."
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