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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brussels ups the the ante over the Johnson/Cummings EU deal ov

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  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin seems to be all over the place. Prior to Brandon Lewis comment in the House of Commons he was quoted as saying the Government should ditch the Withdrawal Agreement completely. Then when Lewis said that what they would be doing would be breaking international law he's now taken the opposite position. I'm not sure if there's some nuance i'm missing whereby it is legal to withdraw from the Agreement completely but illegal to disregard certain aspects of it whilst not actually abandoning it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited September 10
    Speculation in this thread that one aim of the Internal Market Bill is to engineer a big SNP win in Holyrood next year and trigger a culture war between Scottish and English nationalists where the Cummings Party can reap the rewards from the latter.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,506
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Indeed to be met with UK airdrops and the Royal Navy to break the blockade
    Going DEFCON again?
    Well if Spain blockades Gibraltar obviously the RAF would drop food and supplies in as long as it lasted
    You've got the wrong end of this stick and you're really not interested in letting it go are you?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    All this talk of the UK going to war is going to present a few problems for Cummings' plans to slash the armed forces...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Indeed to be met with UK airdrops and the Royal Navy to break the blockade
    You risk leaving the army exposed in Scotland without air or naval support???
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,707
    What a long and blustering road it is that leads to the inevitable deal which ensures ongoing close alignment between the UK and the EU.

    We'll miss all this nonsense when it's over. Most people won't but we will.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548
    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,506
    alex_ said:

    All this talk of the UK going to war is going to present a few problems for Cummings' plans to slash the armed forces...

    He is spending more on cyberwarfare which means we could hack an enemies internet and IT network across the country
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,610

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Implementing full customs would be a legal requirement, not an act of war.
    Customs is not a blockade.
    It wasn't me who suggested there would be blockade, but customs without preparation is certain to result in long queues. Of course there is no obligation on Gib to enforce, but there is on Spain.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580
    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,777
    Scott_xP said:

    Cruella will jump to Johnson's tune.

    Indeed, but if there really is a public letter stating that ministers would be breaking the ministerial code by voting for this, that seems problematic...

    The "best" result would be for BoZo to lose the vote

    Not sure how close we are to that, although the ERG making noises is almost too delicious
    Johnson won't walk even if he lost the vote, which I doubt will happen.

    The man has no shame.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    You don’t think anyone outside the EU is watching all this nonsense?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,795

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the EU legal threat is just what Boris and Cummings had wished for. It is time for Starmer to stand up for the law and whip his mps to vote against this legislation but having said that, that may just be Boris and Cummings hope so they can portray themselves as UK standing up against the EU and the labour party acting in collusion with them

    I have no idea where this goes but I hope it ends with Boris going

    And we have a pandemic that is becoming ever increasingly serious to deal with

    Nope Starmer should really decide on a day trip out to some other part of the country say to investigate the fishing industry in Scotland leaving the Tories to own this disaster...

    As we saw in the arguments earlier today where Labour was blamed for not letting May's deal go through - this time round Labour should be letting Boris do what he wants - if his party can't stop him why should the opposition try.
    If Starmer abstains on a vote of this importance he is tarred with the same brush as Boris

    Where is integrity - he has to oppose
    Why Starmer is damned if he opposes and damned if he abstains - but if he abstains he can't be blamed for the consequences which he would be if the Commons blocked the act.

    At the moment it's best to let Boris own this mess - as Starmer said earlier this week get Brexit done..
    On an issue as important as this if Starmer fails to vote against he prostitutes his legal profession and trashes his integrity
    Vote against and Starmer knows he can wave goodbye to those red wall seats he wants to win back.
    The assumption here is that all Leave and Johnson voters are deranged fanatics. I think Starmer's tactics are to win over those that just wanted to make Brexit and the EU go away and leave the fanatics to Johnson.
    It is very easy to support Brexit and oppose this action by Johnson. Just like it is possible to support military action but oppose war crimes. It is not necessary for Johnson to break the law to secure a workable and reasonable result from the negotiations. That he is doing so speaks far more to his nature than it does to the nature of Brexit.

    Indeed in case you missed it, for those who want Britain to be a free trading nation outside the EU going forward, this is a terrible setback.
    Exactly. Well said.

    But, again, the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers don't see this and prefer to try and use it to take the battle back to Day One.
    I don’t know if I count as an UTOA Remainer, but I do see it, and I wish Johnson and his fellow clowns would just get on with it. I have no desire to go back to square one thanks.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,643
    edited September 10

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    All this talk of the UK going to war is going to present a few problems for Cummings' plans to slash the armed forces...

    He is spending more on cyberwarfare which means we could hack an enemies internet and IT network across the country
    Lol.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,610
    IanB2 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    eek said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    I doubt it would be much different from the days when Spain have a work for rule and create 12 hour queues on the border
    Indeed. You don't have to literally sail frigates into the mouth of Gibraltar Harbour to make life intolerable for the residents. Not that it's their fault, given they voted remain by 90% plus poor bastards.
    I wonder what happened to PB’er Geoff from Gib, who was pretty much the only Leaver in the Village.
    He pops up on twitter from time to time, as does Hurst Lama, and a couple of other former PBers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,295

    Johnson won't walk even if he lost the vote, which I doubt will happen.

    The man has no shame.

    Indeed, but losing the vote might prompt enough letters...
  • kinabalu said:

    What a long and blustering road it is that leads to the inevitable deal which ensures ongoing close alignment between the UK and the EU.

    We'll miss all this nonsense when it's over. Most people won't but we will.

    You're going to go down swinging aren't you?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    I suspect the EU legal threat is just what Boris and Cummings had wished for. It is time for Starmer to stand up for the law and whip his mps to vote against this legislation but having said that, that may just be Boris and Cummings hope so they can portray themselves as UK standing up against the EU and the labour party acting in collusion with them

    I have no idea where this goes but I hope it ends with Boris going

    And we have a pandemic that is becoming ever increasingly serious to deal with

    Nope Starmer should really decide on a day trip out to some other part of the country say to investigate the fishing industry in Scotland leaving the Tories to own this disaster...

    As we saw in the arguments earlier today where Labour was blamed for not letting May's deal go through - this time round Labour should be letting Boris do what he wants - if his party can't stop him why should the opposition try.
    If Starmer abstains on a vote of this importance he is tarred with the same brush as Boris

    Where is integrity - he has to oppose
    Why Starmer is damned if he opposes and damned if he abstains - but if he abstains he can't be blamed for the consequences which he would be if the Commons blocked the act.

    At the moment it's best to let Boris own this mess - as Starmer said earlier this week get Brexit done..
    On an issue as important as this if Starmer fails to vote against he prostitutes his legal profession and trashes his integrity
    Vote against and Starmer knows he can wave goodbye to those red wall seats he wants to win back.
    The assumption here is that all Leave and Johnson voters are deranged fanatics. I think Starmer's tactics are to win over those that just wanted to make Brexit and the EU go away and leave the fanatics to Johnson.
    It is very easy to support Brexit and oppose this action by Johnson. Just like it is possible to support military action but oppose war crimes. It is not necessary for Johnson to break the law to secure a workable and reasonable result from the negotiations. That he is doing so speaks far more to his nature than it does to the nature of Brexit.

    Indeed in case you missed it, for those who want Britain to be a free trading nation outside the EU going forward, this is a terrible setback.
    Exactly. Well said.

    But, again, the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers don't see this and prefer to try and use it to take the battle back to Day One.
    I don’t know if I count as an UTOA Remainer, but I do see it, and I wish Johnson and his fellow clowns would just get on with it. I have no desire to go back to square one thanks.
    Quite. I don't know why Brexiteers seem to think we haven't left the EU. We have bar the transition period. I would like a trade deal wrapped up that means my job prospects don't narrow to "Europe or Bust". We don't need more mad psychodrama.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,795
    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Let’s hope so.

    Sunak would be vastly preferable to this clown: Johnson is simply incompetent. He is a wally.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom too. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Well it didn't lead to no deal then because Johnson's genius pursuaded the EU to abandon May's deal in favour of their opening negotiating proposals.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,612
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    It also promised that they had an oven-ready Withdrawal Agreement to Get Brexit Done. Whatever happened to that?

    It wasn't oven-ready really, was it? They hadn't even started sourcing the ingredients yet.
    The manifesto only promised a deal that regained control of our fishing waters and ended EU sovereignty over our laws, the EU have refused to offer us that deal
    Fishing waters we've been given(just not the fish but we didn't ask for the fish) and it is us trying to break the law we agreed with the EU earlier this year
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    All this talk of the UK going to war is going to present a few problems for Cummings' plans to slash the armed forces...

    He is spending more on cyberwarfare which means we could hack an enemies internet and IT network across the country
    Lol.
    Dom is going to hax0r Merkel65's computer and replace her desktop with furry porn. Then they'll all be sorry!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934

    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Let’s hope so.

    Sunak would be vastly preferable to this clown: Johnson is simply incompetent. He is a wally.
    Bonus being we get rid of Cummings as well.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    All this talk of the UK going to war is going to present a few problems for Cummings' plans to slash the armed forces...

    He is spending more on cyberwarfare which means we could hack an enemies internet and IT network across the country
    So Cummings is running (Ruining) the country then
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Implementing full customs would be a legal requirement, not an act of war.
    Customs is not a blockade.
    It wasn't me who suggested there would be blockade, but customs without preparation is certain to result in long queues. Of course there is no obligation on Gib to enforce, but there is on Spain.

    Oh absolutely, but when I said "That would be an act of war" it was in reply to "I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar."

    Absolutely long queues are quite possible. C'est la vie, that's why Gibraltar was so pro-Remain.
  • nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Let’s hope so.

    Sunak would be vastly preferable to this clown: Johnson is simply incompetent. He is a wally.
    Hilariously that's exactly what my mother said earlier today. Sunak is a much more dangerous political opponent than Johnson so as a Labour supporter it's not strictly in my political interest. However, as someone with a functioning nervous system, I am entirely on board with firing the entire cabinet into the siberian backbenches aside from Sunak.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,610
    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Yes, Betfair Exchange has one.

    15 for Exit by New Year.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,295
    The Labour line is clear

    "Tories couldn't get it done..."
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Implementing full customs would be a legal requirement, not an act of war.
    Customs is not a blockade.
    It wasn't me who suggested there would be blockade, but customs without preparation is certain to result in long queues. Of course there is no obligation on Gib to enforce, but there is on Spain.

    Oh absolutely, but when I said "That would be an act of war" it was in reply to "I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar."

    Absolutely long queues are quite possible. C'est la vie, that's why Gibraltar was so pro-Remain.
    I also clarified my words on that. I miswrote.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    You don’t think anyone outside the EU is watching all this nonsense?
    The rest of the world knows this is a Brexit drama and understand that.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
  • alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Implementing full customs would be a legal requirement, not an act of war.
    Customs is not a blockade.
    It wasn't me who suggested there would be blockade, but customs without preparation is certain to result in long queues. Of course there is no obligation on Gib to enforce, but there is on Spain.

    Oh absolutely, but when I said "That would be an act of war" it was in reply to "I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar."

    Absolutely long queues are quite possible. C'est la vie, that's why Gibraltar was so pro-Remain.
    I also clarified my words on that. I miswrote.
    Fair enough then. Glad that's been cleared up.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    I think the manifesto promised a trade deal with the US as well, but they seem to also be taking the view that we are not a sovereign country.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    There, the Government put itself in a losing position, set out to lose, and therefore enabled a bigger and more significant victory. Where would it be planning to lose here? The commons? The negotiations?

    Whatever else you can say about this Government, you can't call them boring. :lol:
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318
    IanB2 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    eek said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    I doubt it would be much different from the days when Spain have a work for rule and create 12 hour queues on the border
    Indeed. You don't have to literally sail frigates into the mouth of Gibraltar Harbour to make life intolerable for the residents. Not that it's their fault, given they voted remain by 90% plus poor bastards.
    I wonder what happened to PB’er Geoff from Gib, who was pretty much the only Leaver in the Village.
    He's very alive and well on Twitter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318
    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help foucs minds.

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548
    Scott_xP said:
    Good news I guess, but I suspect it's also a timing problem. The critical path here is the negotiations and the deadline is tight. If Johnson self-destructs in parliament next week then the negotiators will still want to close a deal if possible. It's also just about possible that if a tunnel is formed then Johnson might take the off-ramp and claim that the measures are now no longer needed if a deal is being signed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited September 10

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Indeed to be met with UK airdrops and the Royal Navy to break the blockade
    You and Thommo have lost the plot this evening. Act of war indeed!
    I never said anything about airdrops or the Navy but absolutely a "blockade" is an act of war. Always has been. Not having a deal and making things awkward and uncomfortable is one thing, but a blockade is an act of war.
    Maybe we could hack Madrid and upload a nasty "Franco2020" virus with our new crack cyber warfare division.

    We couldn't do much else.
  • alex_ said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Let’s hope so.

    Sunak would be vastly preferable to this clown: Johnson is simply incompetent. He is a wally.
    Bonus being we get rid of Cummings as well.
    Frankly, ditching Cummings is way more important than getting rid of Johnson.

    So:
    a) Would Sunak want to get rid of Cummings? He'd have to, wouldn't he?
    b) How loud would the howlings over Westminster and Islington be if he did? Loud, I assume.
    c) What would a Sunak Premiership look like? My guess is late Major redux; a decent guy overwhelmed by events.
  • Does anyone know the daily covid tests for the last week ?

    The government site hasn't been updated since the 2nd.

    There was a reference on the BBC to over 300k having taken place on one day but I don't know where that number came from.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580
    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318
    Scott_xP said:
    "Please raise them with your line manager, because I don't want to hear them."
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:



    The whole point of this was to create this nonsense argument
    If the UK want no deal and no future deal then that's fine. I suspect the EU can do a lot of damage in the mean time, even before we get to the pre-conditions to any future trade talks.

    I suspect an early move will be a blockade of Gibraltar.
    That would be an act of war.
    Indeed to be met with UK airdrops and the Royal Navy to break the blockade
    You and Thommo have lost the plot this evening. Act of war indeed!
    I never said anything about airdrops or the Navy but absolutely a "blockade" is an act of war. Always has been. Not having a deal and making things awkward and uncomfortable is one thing, but a blockade is an act of war.
    Maybe we could hack Madrid and upload a nasty "Franco2020" virus with our new crack cyber warfare division.

    We couldn't do much else.
    The Sanchez minority coalition lost its first major vote today on a finance matter, Madrid is suffering badly with the virus and may end up being isolated from the rest of Spain finding time to blockade Gibraltar will be low on the agenda.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,612
    alex_ said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    I think the manifesto promised a trade deal with the US as well, but they seem to also be taking the view that we are not a sovereign country.
    We are no longer trustworthy - we now sign treaties and within months renegade on the agreement
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,777
    Scott_xP said:
    The fragrant Katya's final sentence is the nub of the matter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318
    Foxy said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Yes, Betfair Exchange has one.

    15 for Exit by New Year.

    I tipped this earlier.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    Foxy said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Are there any markets over for "Johnson gone by Dec 31st 2020"? If the odds are long enough there might be value in an outside-chance bet of the PCP getting sick of Johnson and "retiring him on health grounds" in favour of Sunak.

    Yes, Betfair Exchange has one.

    15 for Exit by New Year.

    I tipped this earlier.
    A good tip if I'd seen it!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,949
    A classic case of a dodgy graphic. The table starts in 2004 but the graph starts in 2010. The straight line doen't fit anywhere near as well if you include 2004 & 2008. There are also some election results missing from the table.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    Does anyone know the daily covid tests for the last week ?

    The government site hasn't been updated since the 2nd.

    There was a reference on the BBC to over 300k having taken place on one day but I don't know where that number came from.

    178k was the last one I saw. Haven't checked today.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,610

    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
    I find the response to be either pity, or mocking banter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    That was setting the groundwork for an "us vs them" General Election. The next one is years away, whereas the UK economy (Already hit by covid) getting bent out of shape by the lack of a deal with the EU might happen in January ! Not sure what the endgame is on this one tbh.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624

    Scott_xP said:
    "Please raise them with your line manager, because I don't want to hear them."
    More a case of "I'm getting out of this madhouse", I think
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,643

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,355
    Alistair said:
    Americans haven’t got a clue how to hold an election do they?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    Alistair said:
    Doubt it'll make much difference in the end, but swear the green party are sleeper agents for Trump.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    edited September 10

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help foucs minds.

    Given at the start of the week the ERG were making strong comments arguing for the ditching of the WA completely, it is possible that these comments from Howard and now Jenkin could be presaging/laying the ground for a climbdown? After all, it was being speculated that the ERG would be the main obstacle to Johnson NOT climbing down once the bill had been published...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,640
    Evening all :)

    Some solid polls for Joe Biden this evening - an 8-point lead in Michigan and the Monmouth poll showing a solid 51-42 lead among registered voters and a 51-44 lead with likely voters with very few undecided.

    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

    The voter split is 39% Independent, 32% Democrat and 29% Republican which is interesting. The poll sample is only 867 so a 3.6% margin of error which means it could be a near dead heat or Biden could have a massive double digit lead.

    One poll Trump did lead was the Oklahoma state poll where he was up 60-35, a lead of 25. In 2016 Trump won Oklahoma 65-29 so that's a 5.5% swing to Biden, again reflecting what I've been saying for ages - both candidates are doing disproportionately well in the other's strongholds. I think I saw a Montana poll which cut Trump's 19 point in 2016 to just 7 now so a 6% swing there.

    None of this does Biden much good if he isn't putting on votes where he needs them.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,949

    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
    Lets put it this way, very few people in Germany are looking at the UK with envy.
  • alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin seems to be all over the place. Prior to Brandon Lewis comment in the House of Commons he was quoted as saying the Government should ditch the Withdrawal Agreement completely. Then when Lewis said that what they would be doing would be breaking international law he's now taken the opposite position. I'm not sure if there's some nuance i'm missing whereby it is legal to withdraw from the Agreement completely but illegal to disregard certain aspects of it whilst not actually abandoning it.
    In effect yes. Withdrawing from an agreement is what you might call 'bad form' and makes you look pretty stupid when you only signed it a few months before, but sine it removes any obligations on the part of the other parties it is not against international law. It might fall foul of the Vienna Convention but since the EU is not allowed to be a signatory to that this treaty does not come under its auspices.

    Unilaterally changing or reneging on sections of a treaty whilst expecting the other parties to continue to adhere to it, does break international law.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    edited September 10

    Alistair said:
    Americans haven’t got a clue how to hold an election do they?
    Green party nonsense aided and abbetted by a GOP dominated state supreme court lol
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
    I find the response to be either pity, or mocking banter.
    Well you didn't need to travel so far for that, you could have just come here.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,777
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
    I find the response to be either pity, or mocking banter.
    Trump naysayers generally saw Johnson and his pre-election behaviour as Trump-lite, on my February Viking cruise. Conversely Trumpsters were wildly impressed with Johnson and his cavalier tendencies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Firstly, that lengthy prorogation was an outrage and I said so on here at the time (as did many others). It suspended democracy and put The Queen in a very difficult position.

    Second, it was an attempt to run out the clock to stop it having to implement the Cooper-Letwin Act and force it to ask for an extension to the Brexit date from 31st October (Boris's "do or die" date) to 31st January.

    He failed so engineered a General Election, which of course he subsequently won, and then he passed the WA.

    The message is that Boris tries to break the law and is rapidly put back in his box once he realises he can't.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,048
    Question - is the whole "notwithstanding" thing the modern equivalent of the HIGNFY joke of basically being able to slander anyone by saying anything you like but getting away with it by putting "ALLEGEDLY" at the end of it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580
    eristdoof said:

    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
    Lets put it this way, very few people in Germany are looking at the UK with envy.
    I never for a moment suggested anyone in Germany was looking at the UK with envy - that one you came up with all yourself - tellingly perhaps.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,285
    eristdoof said:

    A classic case of a dodgy graphic. The table starts in 2004 but the graph starts in 2010. The straight line doen't fit anywhere near as well if you include 2004 & 2008. There are also some election results missing from the table.
    I don't really see your point. If you extend back further and best fit a curve to it the 2020 extrapolation would be closer to 6% not 5%.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
    A lot of people made similar posts then too. Not so many on election night.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,949
    Why Randall Monroe doesn't trust the polls in the US,...
    https://xkcd.com/2357/
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bernard Jenkin seems to be all over the place. Prior to Brandon Lewis comment in the House of Commons he was quoted as saying the Government should ditch the Withdrawal Agreement completely. Then when Lewis said that what they would be doing would be breaking international law he's now taken the opposite position. I'm not sure if there's some nuance i'm missing whereby it is legal to withdraw from the Agreement completely but illegal to disregard certain aspects of it whilst not actually abandoning it.
    In effect yes. Withdrawing from an agreement is what you might call 'bad form' and makes you look pretty stupid when you only signed it a few months before, but sine it removes any obligations on the part of the other parties it is not against international law. It might fall foul of the Vienna Convention but since the EU is not allowed to be a signatory to that this treaty does not come under its auspices.

    Unilaterally changing or reneging on sections of a treaty whilst expecting the other parties to continue to adhere to it, does break international law.
    I tried to put this into words earlier but I struggled a bit. Thanks for saying it so eloquently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,921
    CNN: However, if this is the issue that ultimately ends the Brexit talks, it could take the UK's reputation years to recover from the backlash of some high-stakes diplomacy gone badly wrong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,318

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
    A lot of people made similar posts then too. Not so many on election night.
    Yes - he's good at election and referendum campaigns.

    He's not at Government.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    eristdoof said:

    Why Randall Monroe doesn't trust the polls in the US,...
    https://xkcd.com/2357/

    It is possible of course that the pollsters, having learnt their lesson from 2016, are actually overstating Trump now.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
    "So Prime Minister, the Chaos Spawn here represents Michel Barnier and the Daemon Prince is the combined interests of the EU27. If we move our Leman Russ tanks (the Internal Market Bill) over here and then teleport in the space marines (the press) here then we can take out Barnier and knock the EU27 down some wound brackets before the retaliaton kicks in"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,682
    Kinnock giving both barrels to Bennite Corbyn:




  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,682
    IanB2 said:

    CNN: However, if this is the issue that ultimately ends the Brexit talks, it could take the UK's reputation years to recover from the backlash of some high-stakes diplomacy gone badly wrong.

    How's that being in the history bookie thingy working out for you Boris?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 548

    IanB2 said:

    CNN: However, if this is the issue that ultimately ends the Brexit talks, it could take the UK's reputation years to recover from the backlash of some high-stakes diplomacy gone badly wrong.

    How's that being in the history bookie thingy working out for you Boris?
    I suppose it's better to be remembered in infamy than forgotten to old Johnson.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,527
    For those seeking a kinder, gentler politics, the AV discussion is still going strong over on the Rail Forums site.

    They've got LibDems and everything!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,610

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    This is very, very much reminding me of the prorogation drama. Complete with the chorus of appalled notables (that time appalled over suspending democracy, this time appalled over breaking international law), and a lot of Tories saying 'this time they've gone too far'. As then, I cannot really see why it's happening, and as then, I can't really predict the outcome. However, then, it achieved its ultimate goal.

    Indeed. A good chunk of PB was convinced that the 'Prorogation Crisis' was an epic blunder, national humiliation, and strategic disaster on the part of Classic Dom at that time. It was going to lead straight to No Deal and the end of democracy then too...
    Fair cop. Only the national humiliation, No Deal and end of democracy bits turned out to be true in the end ...
    Some of our better travelled PBers can perhaps tell us whether they've been met with dark looks and mutterings of 'prorogation' accompanied by aggressive sounding oaths when they've been abroad recently.
    I find the response to be either pity, or mocking banter.
    Well you didn't need to travel so far for that, you could have just come here.
    Oh, I do.

    I was expecting Brexit to be a damp squib, but it is proving far more entertaining than that. It is ein Ganzweltgewinninverwirrungficken.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,580

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
    A lot of people made similar posts then too. Not so many on election night.
    Yes - he's good at election and referendum campaigns.

    He's not at Government.
    I go with that to some extent. I think he's good at brinkmanship and starting arguments. I know I'm in a minority of one, but I don't rate him on the Brexit referendum.

    However, my point remains that I don't think his mind will be 'focused' by opposition from Tory MPs, even leavers. I think he'll have been aware. Whether his 9 lives are up this time, we await the next gripping installment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,295

    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.

    Unlikely.

    This is a shitshow, whatever happens next. And it was always going to be. Whether Cummings has somehow engineered the result or fate took its inevitable course, we ended up with the sort of shitshow that was predicted at the start.

    We look like idiots on the World Stage.

    Our economy is in trouble.

    We are concreting over Kent.

    Slow hand clap for 4D chess...

    There was show on TV, might have been Derren Brown, where they put a bunch of slebs in a room with a locked door, and a counter on the wall. If the counter reached a certain value in a fixed period of time they were free to leave.

    They tried all sorts of stuff to make the counter move, unaware it was actually responding to a fish in a tank randomly passing a black line on the side.

    And they failed to notice a giant sign on the ceiling that appeared half way through that read "the door isn't locked now"

    Maybe Cummings has a chart somewhere that says win referendum, win election, engineer shitshow, but I doubt it.

    I think they are flailing around trying to undo some of the shit they did to get to this point and they can't without breaking everything else.

    Inevitable, and you don't need to be a superforecaster to see that...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,777

    Kinnock giving both barrels to Bennite Corbyn:




    Far too wordy AGAIN from Kinnock. "Corbyn was absolute s***e" would have sufficed.
  • nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    I had a load of messages from friends last night...not one about the EU game playing, all going FFS Christmas is cancelled isn't it, this is shit, what a shitshow...
This discussion has been closed.