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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brussels ups the the ante over the Johnson/Cummings EU deal ov

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,222
    edited September 10
    I see Keir has been in Chesterfield today.

    Labour hold but CON + BREXIT = 47%
  • I see blame on David Frost - wasn't he a superb negotiator just days ago? - has started too
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912

    Kinnock giving both barrels to Bennite Corbyn:




    Surely everyone still believes in the tooth fairy?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 4,138
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Some solid polls for Joe Biden this evening - an 8-point lead in Michigan and the Monmouth poll showing a solid 51-42 lead among registered voters and a 51-44 lead with likely voters with very few undecided.

    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

    The voter split is 39% Independent, 32% Democrat and 29% Republican which is interesting. The poll sample is only 867 so a 3.6% margin of error which means it could be a near dead heat or Biden could have a massive double digit lead.

    One poll Trump did lead was the Oklahoma state poll where he was up 60-35, a lead of 25. In 2016 Trump won Oklahoma 65-29 so that's a 5.5% swing to Biden, again reflecting what I've been saying for ages - both candidates are doing disproportionately well in the other's strongholds. I think I saw a Montana poll which cut Trump's 19 point in 2016 to just 7 now so a 6% swing there.

    None of this does Biden much good if he isn't putting on votes where he needs them.

    Good evening Stodge. I eagerly await your posts, you know.
  • I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,703

    nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    I had a load of messages from friends last night...not one about the EU game playing, all going FFS Christmas is cancelled isn't it, this is shit, what a shitshow...
    That is a daft criticism of Johnson. If Christmas is cancelled it is for a very good reason. Johnson's WA chicanery is genuine nonsense engineered entirely and unnecessarily by Johnson's own hand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,531
    Sabato - nothing much that happens now in the campaign is going to change the needle. Everyone is firm in their view.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912
    Scott_xP said:

    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.

    Unlikely.

    This is a shitshow, whatever happens next. And it was always going to be. Whether Cummings has somehow engineered the result or fate took its inevitable course, we ended up with the sort of shitshow that was predicted at the start.

    We look like idiots on the World Stage.

    Our economy is in trouble.

    We are concreting over Kent.

    Slow hand clap for 4D chess...

    There was show on TV, might have been Derren Brown, where they put a bunch of slebs in a room with a locked door, and a counter on the wall. If the counter reached a certain value in a fixed period of time they were free to leave.

    They tried all sorts of stuff to make the counter move, unaware it was actually responding to a fish in a tank randomly passing a black line on the side.

    And they failed to notice a giant sign on the ceiling that appeared half way through that read "the door isn't locked now"

    Maybe Cummings has a chart somewhere that says win referendum, win election, engineer shitshow, but I doubt it.

    I think they are flailing around trying to undo some of the shit they did to get to this point and they can't without breaking everything else.

    Inevitable, and you don't need to be a superforecaster to see that...
    I think they're also in a situation where, due to COVID, their desire to play the populism game, whilst actually having to confront the reality that their decisions are literally playing with people's lives, is dragging them in several different directions at once, to the extent that every time they are forced to take one unpopular decision they are having to compensate elsewhere.

    This is the inevitable consequence of trying to run a permanent election campaign instead of just banking the 80 majority knowing that it makes you bullet proof for 5 years, and settling down to the serious business of delivering competent government.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,039
    edited September 10

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
    A lot of people made similar posts then too. Not so many on election night.
    I always thought the Benn Act was a mistake and they shouldn’t have tried to protect Johnson from the logic of his position.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559

    I see Keir has been in Chesterfield today.

    Labour hold but CON + BREXIT = 47%

    Lib-Lab battleground between 1984 and 2010.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,227

    nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    I had a load of messages from friends last night...not one about the EU game playing, all going FFS Christmas is cancelled isn't it, this is shit, what a shitshow...
    That is a daft criticism of Johnson. If Christmas is cancelled it is for a very good reason. Johnson's WA chicanery is genuine nonsense engineered entirely and unnecessarily by Johnson's own hand.
    It’s not a comment on the rights or wrongs of it just that it has had more impact with normal people than the shit show were all talking about. Here.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,703

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    I am reminded of the Alan Cummings character in Goldeneye, declaring "I am invincible" the moment before he is petrified.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    Tonga and the USA would be sovereign equals in a trade negotiation I suppose. Now which has more clout ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
  • This is really irresponsible story. These people won't know of they actually had the vaccine or not, placebo effect and all that.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8718243/Covid-vaccine-volunteer-keen-eager-second-dose-despite-halting-trials.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,129
    alex_ said:

    This is the inevitable consequence of trying to run a permanent election campaign instead of just banking the 80 majority knowing that it makes you bullet proof for 5 years, and settling down to the serious business of delivering competent government.

    They literally don't know how.

    BoZo is incompetent at everything, and Cummings has no experience making anything work
  • Scott_xP said:
    No they haven't. That's not a NZ politician saying that it is someone who has been attacking Brexit for years calling on a politician to say it.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.
    A lot of people made similar posts then too. Not so many on election night.
    I always thought the Benn Act was a mistake and they shouldn’t have tried to protect Johnson from the logic of his position.
    It was too clever by half, and I'm wondering if the internal market bill is similirly too clever by half as well.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    Last time I checked 15.7tn was larger than 2.7tn but it's fine. Look really, there's this bridge over here, 19th century, genuine antique cantilever. Yours for a cool £3m.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,100
    edited September 10

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    This is really irresponsible story. These people won't know of they actually had the vaccine or not, placebo effect and all that.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8718243/Covid-vaccine-volunteer-keen-eager-second-dose-despite-halting-trials.html

    The entire reporting of that story was irresponsible. It's a sensationalised account of something that regularly happens in trials and I'm pissed off with the media (and especially the BBC science editor) for treating it like some thunderbolt from the blue.
  • nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    I had a load of messages from friends last night...not one about the EU game playing, all going FFS Christmas is cancelled isn't it, this is shit, what a shitshow...
    That is a daft criticism of Johnson. If Christmas is cancelled it is for a very good reason. Johnson's WA chicanery is genuine nonsense engineered entirely and unnecessarily by Johnson's own hand.
    I didn't say people were logical....although i am not sure Boris can escape criticism over decisions made over covid that could and still might have lead to a more normal Christmas e.g. foreign holidays, no testing at airports.
  • Scott_xP said:

    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS.

    Unlikely.

    This is a shitshow, whatever happens next. And it was always going to be. Whether Cummings has somehow engineered the result or fate took its inevitable course, we ended up with the sort of shitshow that was predicted at the start.

    We look like idiots on the World Stage.

    Our economy is in trouble.

    We are concreting over Kent.

    Slow hand clap for 4D chess...

    There was show on TV, might have been Derren Brown, where they put a bunch of slebs in a room with a locked door, and a counter on the wall. If the counter reached a certain value in a fixed period of time they were free to leave.

    They tried all sorts of stuff to make the counter move, unaware it was actually responding to a fish in a tank randomly passing a black line on the side.

    And they failed to notice a giant sign on the ceiling that appeared half way through that read "the door isn't locked now"

    Maybe Cummings has a chart somewhere that says win referendum, win election, engineer shitshow, but I doubt it.

    I think they are flailing around trying to undo some of the shit they did to get to this point and they can't without breaking everything else.

    Inevitable, and you don't need to be a superforecaster to see that...
    Going back to Dom's early blogs- the ones reflecting on his time as an education SPAD- he's furious about entropy. Convinced that, if only government could remove disorder from the system, everything would be so much more brilliant.

    If he actually was a physicist, rather than someone who enjoys ogling physics, he'd know how impossible that was. (Or more accurately, you can only make a perfect pattern here at the cost of huge chaos over there.) That the patterns he thinks he controls are just a fish swimming back and forth in a tank. And that the Great Men he idolises and seeks to advance are often just lucky apes in the right place at the right time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    How does that help us in a trade negotiation?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Except per capita doesn't matter. If it did then we'd be able to get a supremely favourable trade deal with China in seconds. It doesn't matter if the 50 tonne rock that's about to be rolled onto my head is pushed by five people or five hundred, it's still a 50 tonne rock. I think you know this and are being facile.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,703

    nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    I had a load of messages from friends last night...not one about the EU game playing, all going FFS Christmas is cancelled isn't it, this is shit, what a shitshow...
    That is a daft criticism of Johnson. If Christmas is cancelled it is for a very good reason. Johnson's WA chicanery is genuine nonsense engineered entirely and unnecessarily by Johnson's own hand.
    I didn't say people were logical....although i am not sure Boris can escape criticism over decisions made over covid that could and still might have lead to a more normal Christmas e.g. foreign holidays, no testing at airports.
    Fair point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,875

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Well I am in Germany and it doesn’t feel like that here. Especially with the prices given the self inflicted collapse of our currency.
  • Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    Tonga and the USA would be sovereign equals in a trade negotiation I suppose. Now which has more clout ?
    Tonga GDP per capita 4,364
    USA GDP per capita 62,734

    I'm going with the USA on this one.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Except per capita doesn't matter. If it did then we'd be able to get a supremely favourable trade deal with China in seconds. It doesn't matter if the 50 tonne rock that's about to be rolled onto my head is pushed by five people or five hundred, it's still a 50 tonne rock. I think you know this and are being facile.
    Absolutely 100% per capita matters. China is much poorer than us and is desperate to try and catch up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Per capita gdp doesn't matter in a trade deal lol.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,524

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,614

    kinabalu said:

    What a long and blustering road it is that leads to the inevitable deal which ensures ongoing close alignment between the UK and the EU.

    We'll miss all this nonsense when it's over. Most people won't but we will.

    You're going to go down swinging aren't you?
    Bit old for all that now. All I'm good for these days is speaking words of wisdom.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,444
    Scott_xP said:
    Leicester inpatients now 16, was 13 last week, 8 the week before. 3 deaths announced too.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    Last time I checked 15.7tn was larger than 2.7tn but it's fine. Look really, there's this bridge over here, 19th century, genuine antique cantilever. Yours for a cool £3m.
    Oh dear maths isn't your strong point.

    15.7tn divided by 446 million is less than 2.7tn divided by 67 million.

    Better luck next time.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    edited September 10
    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?
  • Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Per capita gdp doesn't matter in a trade deal lol.
    Of course it does. What matters is how much you can afford each to buy and sell.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    How does that help us in a trade negotiation?
    Trade is about what you can buy and sell. Customers who buy more are worth more. Per capita we buy a lot - a lot more than they do.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Except per capita doesn't matter. If it did then we'd be able to get a supremely favourable trade deal with China in seconds. It doesn't matter if the 50 tonne rock that's about to be rolled onto my head is pushed by five people or five hundred, it's still a 50 tonne rock. I think you know this and are being facile.
    Absolutely 100% per capita matters. China is much poorer than us and is desperate to try and catch up.
    You know, just saying "no u" doesn't actually refute my point. Again, it literally does not matter what GDP/capita is because when the imbalance in GDP is that enormous it simply isn't worth it to the larger party to give up concessions to attain access to a much smaller market. Why give a competitor an advantage when they'd settle for less? Sure they'd maybe like to, might throw a bone or two, but when it comes down to brass tacks a trade deal for the EU is a nice to have rather than a must have. That is not the case for many UK businesses or (despite how desperate they are to avoid saying it) the government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559

    Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Per capita gdp doesn't matter in a trade deal lol.
    Of course it does. What matters is how much you can afford each to buy and sell.
    It can matter in a few specific situations at the edges, but it's not nearly as important as absolute size in a trade negotiation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,039

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    That’s what a loss of status means. You need to get used to politicians you’ve never heard of calling the shots.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,100
    edited September 10
    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Except per capita doesn't matter. If it did then we'd be able to get a supremely favourable trade deal with China in seconds. It doesn't matter if the 50 tonne rock that's about to be rolled onto my head is pushed by five people or five hundred, it's still a 50 tonne rock. I think you know this and are being facile.
    Absolutely 100% per capita matters. China is much poorer than us and is desperate to try and catch up.
    You know, just saying "no u" doesn't actually refute my point. Again, it literally does not matter what GDP/capita is because when the imbalance in GDP is that enormous it simply isn't worth it to the larger party to give up concessions to attain access to a much smaller market. Why give a competitor an advantage when they'd settle for less? Sure they'd maybe like to, might throw a bone or two, but when it comes down to brass tacks a trade deal for the EU is a nice to have rather than a must have. That is not the case for many UK businesses or (despite how desperate they are to avoid saying it) the government.
    We are the larger party. We're 33% richer than they are.

    Though we're on a par with their western nations.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912
    edited September 10

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    It feels as if they've seriously misjudged the attitude of not just mainstream Conservatives, but the right wing towards the issue of breaking International law. They might have got away with it if they had tried to argue that they were acting within the law (although it seems they couldn't even get Braverman to agree that), but the choice to "confront" what they were doing head on has killed them. They clearly put a bit too much store behind the initial attempt to cite the 2013 Finance Act as a precedent now this has been comprehensively debunked.

    They should have known a bit more about Thatcher's quotes on these issues which are devastating for them... At the moment it is looking difficult to see that they will get any votes in the Lords for this at all, including from some pretty extreme Brexiters. And now even the ERG seem to be coming out against it...

    You have to have at least some support in the Lords if you want to threaten them with a raft of new peers. And where would they get them from?
  • Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    That’s what a loss of status means. You need to get used to politicians you’ve never heard of calling the shots.
    Lolz sure being in the EU never has that problem
  • I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    I'm sure Doris think they're up to something...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,330

    Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    Tonga and the USA would be sovereign equals in a trade negotiation I suppose. Now which has more clout ?
    Tonga GDP per capita 4,364
    USA GDP per capita 62,734

    I'm going with the USA on this one.
    And Liechtenstein 140,000, so more than twice as powerful as the USA. Of course it is.

    Seriously, what are you doing here? You are the Florence Foster Jenkins of PB.
  • BBC News - Coronavirus: France sets daily record with almost 10,000 new cases
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54111209
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Except per capita doesn't matter. If it did then we'd be able to get a supremely favourable trade deal with China in seconds. It doesn't matter if the 50 tonne rock that's about to be rolled onto my head is pushed by five people or five hundred, it's still a 50 tonne rock. I think you know this and are being facile.
    Absolutely 100% per capita matters. China is much poorer than us and is desperate to try and catch up.
    You know, just saying "no u" doesn't actually refute my point. Again, it literally does not matter what GDP/capita is because when the imbalance in GDP is that enormous it simply isn't worth it to the larger party to give up concessions to attain access to a much smaller market. Why give a competitor an advantage when they'd settle for less? Sure they'd maybe like to, might throw a bone or two, but when it comes down to brass tacks a trade deal for the EU is a nice to have rather than a must have. That is not the case for many UK businesses or (despite how desperate they are to avoid saying it) the government.
    We are the larger party. We're 33% richer than they are.
    There is a magic world in which your deluded sense that LOL WE'RE RICHER means something, but in the actual real world in which most of us live, it doesn't. Because the EU gains more from the integrity of its internal market (which we apparently prize here too) than it does from the trade with the UK. Yes it will be sub optimal for them not to get a deal, but as a woman once said "No deal is better than a bad deal". But I don't really see much point in carrying on here because I think you're the only one here who is mad enough to think this.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912
    I doubt the GDP argument is even true once one actually breaks down the EU into segmental markets. Their GDP per capita is only lower i would think because of all the accession countries that account for a miniscule proportion of mutual UK-EU trade.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Per capita gdp doesn't matter in a trade deal lol.
    Of course it does. What matters is how much you can afford each to buy and sell.
    It can matter in a few specific situations at the edges, but it's not nearly as important as absolute size in a trade negotiation.
    Of course it is. He who pays the piper calls the shots.

    Which is better able to do well economically in its dealings - Indonesia ($1 trillion GDP but $3,893 per capita) or Switzerland ($705 billion but $82,796 per capita)?

    Would you rather be a random Indonesian citizen or a random Swiss citizen?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,330

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    A foreign bloke with a really funny name.
  • BBC News - Coronavirus: France sets daily record with almost 10,000 new cases
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54111209

    It's almost like the lockdown which has wrecked the world economy never actually happened.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    Tonga and the USA would be sovereign equals in a trade negotiation I suppose. Now which has more clout ?
    Tonga GDP per capita 4,364
    USA GDP per capita 62,734

    I'm going with the USA on this one.
    And Liechtenstein 140,000, so more than twice as powerful as the USA. Of course it is.

    Seriously, what are you doing here? You are the Florence Foster Jenkins of PB.
    Of course Liechtenstein is. Liechtenstein is fantastically set up to look after its own interests.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,129

    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.

    If you missed it the other day, it helps if you realise that BoZo and Dom are channeling Kevin and Perry

    It's so unfair !!!

    They also had lots of cunning plans...

    And yes, everybody got fucked at the the end.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912
    Who does Philip think would have the upper hand in a bilateral trade negotiation between the UK and Luxembourg?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,263
    alex_ said:

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    It feels as if they've seriously misjudged the attitude of not just mainstream Conservatives, but the right wing towards the issue of breaking International law. They might have got away with it if they had tried to argue that they were acting within the law (although it seems they couldn't even get Braverman to agree that), but the choice to "confront" what they were doing head on has killed them. They clearly put a bit too much store behind the initial attempt to cite the 2013 Finance Act as a precedent now this has been comprehensively debunked.

    They should have known a bit more about Thatcher's quotes on these issues which are devastating for them... At the moment it is looking difficult to see that they will get any votes in the Lords for this at all, including from some pretty extreme Brexiters. And now even the ERG seem to be coming out against it...

    You have to have at least some support in the Lords if you want to threaten them with a raft of new peers. And where would they get them from?
    Is there a whiff of Suez in the air? Imperial overreach. Overt lack of American support. Catastrophic back down. PM resigns on 'doctor's orders'. If so, who is SuperMac?
  • alex_ said:

    Who does Philip think would have the upper hand in a bilateral trade negotiation between the UK and Luxembourg?

    Since Luxembourg don't engage in trade negotiations on their own moot. If they did, they would.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,524
    alex_ said:

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    It feels as if they've seriously misjudged the attitude of not just mainstream Conservatives, but the right wing towards the issue of breaking International law. They might have got away with it if they had tried to argue that they were acting within the law (although it seems they couldn't even get Braverman to agree that), but the choice to "confront" what they were doing head on has killed them. They clearly put a bit too much store behind the initial attempt to cite the 2013 Finance Act as a precedent now this has been comprehensively debunked.

    They should have known a bit more about Thatcher's quotes on these issues which are devastating for them... At the moment it is looking difficult to see that they will get any votes in the Lords for this at all, including from some pretty extreme Brexiters. And now even the ERG seem to be coming out against it...

    You have to have at least some support in the Lords if you want to threaten them with a raft of new peers. And where would they get them from?
    It felt like that last time though. Upsetting Tory MPs was the name of the game then too. Dom even passed them waiting to see Boris in Number 10, and gave them both barrels, just to ensure they were royally pissed off.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Per capita gdp doesn't matter in a trade deal lol.
    Of course it does. What matters is how much you can afford each to buy and sell.
    It can matter in a few specific situations at the edges, but it's not nearly as important as absolute size in a trade negotiation.
    Of course it is. He who pays the piper calls the shots.

    Which is better able to do well economically in its dealings - Indonesia ($1 trillion GDP but $3,893 per capita) or Switzerland ($705 billion but $82,796 per capita)?

    Would you rather be a random Indonesian citizen or a random Swiss citizen?
    I would expect that there is much more growth potential for Swiss companies in the Indonesian market than Indonesian companies in the Swiss one.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,524

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    I'm sure Doris think they're up to something...
    I'm not saying it's going to work - how could I when I don't even know what 'it' is?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,639

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The very best result next week would be for Parliament to vote down the Internal Market Bill. I hope there are enough Tory rebels to make sure this does not go through.

    Strangely this is not about Brexit. That is just the battlefield on which this is being played out. Brexit could happen perfectly well to the satisfaction of the vast majority of Leave voters (and given the alternative most Remain voters as well) without this idiocy.

    This is all about Johnson and his delusions that he is another Churchill. A 'meh' Bexit where things basically get sorted out without a huge fanfare of 'Victory over the Enemy' doesn't suit him at all. He has an eye for history and thinks that if it isn't 'glorious' then it isn't worth doing.

    The problem is there is no satisfactory Brexit for everyone.

    Diehard Remainers stlll oppose Brexit completely and want to rejoin the EU. Moderate Remainers and moderate Leavers may accept an EEA or EEA style FTA compromise which is the most the EU will give us but most Leavers would prefer No Deal WTO terms Brexit to that
    There never was going to be a satisfactory outcome for everyone. That is the nature of politics. But this has nothing to do with that. This is all about personal aggrandisement by Johnson.
    Hi Richard

    I know we have very different views on Cummings, although we agreed over his eye test. You’re a big admirer. I’m not.

    I have to say I see Cummings’ hand in this. It’s exactly the sort of thing he’s done before. Come up with an idea that sounds incredibly brilliant in isolation, and will never survive contact with reality, and then drive it through to show you can. Prorogation springs to mind. (I should mention I thought that was legal, although I also thought it was a very bad idea.)

    I speak from my experience of working in a sector he tried to reform, with disastrous results. You, on the other hand, have a much more detailed knowledge of his written work than I do.

    Do you think Cummings has anything to do with this? I’m genuinely interested in hearing your views. Because if he did, he will surely have to quit if the government is defeated - and if he didn’t, it suggests he’s lost a lot of personal influence although his style clearly remains intact.
    I would like to think not but I suspect that even if he didn't come up with the idea he must have at least agreed to it and game played it.

    As I said, although it is of course pure speculation, I see the driving force here being Johnson. I think he is desperate for this to be a fight rather than a negotiation and for him to come out as the conquering hero. He believes that whatever fallout there might be will be ancient history by the time the next election comes around. He also has a well deserved reputation for being scornful of the law, whether it is international or domestic. I assume this stems from a horrendous sense of privilege.

    So yes I think Cummings must have had something to do with this but unlike the previous 'wheezes' I think the driving force and the origins of this one lie firmly with Johnson.

    As an aside is Cummings even back at Number 10 at the moment? I know he was out because of his much delayed operation at the start of the month.
    The driving force of this is not Cummings or Johnson, its Farage.

    The tories don;t fear Roger irrelevant Keir Starmer.

    They fear a revival of the Brexit party, powered by a 'stab in the back' brexit and a mounting list of conservative voter grievances.

    A bad brexit or a cave in finishes Johnson's government, and it finishes the tories for a generation or more.
    The Tories would have done us all a favour if, years ago, they had tossed the ERG out on their ear and then stood moderate candidates.

    But they lacked the courage and the nerve to do it.
    You really don't get this democracy lark do you. The views of the ERG types reflect the views of a section of the electorate. Quite a large one it seems even if I don't agree with them.

    It was because so many MPs, particularly the party leaderships, failed to recognise this point and failed to represent the views of their voters that we ended up with Brexit and subsequently a Johnson majority.

    I do get this democracy lark - if the Tories had ejected the ERG they could have sat as independents and stood against moderate conservatives at the next election. The electorate would still have had a choice and the Tories would have removed the ERG knife from their jugular and probably given Farage a headache.

    They could have done this in either 2001 or 2005 when they never had a cat in hell's chance of being the govt. It would have been the perfect time to clear to the extremists and remain a moderate centre-right party.

    But they failed to do it and today they are paying the price.
  • alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brexit shouldn't be a priority at the moment, ending the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible should be.

    That depends on a vaccine which could take years, the transition period ends in December
    :facepalm:

    For everyone else reading: Ending it might well require a vaccine. There are many policies that can be implemented to control Covid-19 and ensure it doesn't collapse the healthcare system in the winter. Those should be the entire governmental focus, not some todger-waving contest with the EU over a deal that the PM himself ran a GE campaign on, on a timeline of his own making since he could easily have extended for six months in June.
    The Tory manifesto promised to end the implementation period in December
    because there was an oven ready deal, AIRI?
    The only deal the EU are offering would breach the Tory manifesto commitments to regain control of our fishing waters and to end EU sovereignty over UK law
    Here’s another promise from the same manifesto:


    "We will continue to be an outward-looking country that is a champion of collective security, the rule of law, human rights, free trade, anti-corruption efforts and a rules-based international system."
    We will with the rest of the world and with the EU if it respects our manifesto commitments for a trade deal
    Why should it respect your manifesto
    Because we're a sovereign country.
    Not a good reason to respect your manifesto. Realpolitik C-, must try harder.
    If they want a deal they need to, otherwise we can go our separate ways.
    I mean, they don't. We're the weaker party here. They can dictate the terms and if they don't work out then hey-ho off we go. That's how every trade negotiation goes. We've just forgotten that after 30 years of having most of the G7 in our corner. If you think Donald Trump (or even Joe Biden) is going to respect a manifesto commitment given to anyone other than the American people (and even then...) I have a bridge to sell you.
    We are not a weaker party. If anything we are marginally stronger than the EU. But we are sovereign equals.
    In what conceivable way are we in a stronger position than the EU?
    We are wealthier. We have a better GDP per capita than the EU.

    On any per capita metric they are the poorer party.
    Per capita gdp doesn't matter in a trade deal lol.
    Of course it does. What matters is how much you can afford each to buy and sell.
    It can matter in a few specific situations at the edges, but it's not nearly as important as absolute size in a trade negotiation.
    Of course it is. He who pays the piper calls the shots.

    Which is better able to do well economically in its dealings - Indonesia ($1 trillion GDP but $3,893 per capita) or Switzerland ($705 billion but $82,796 per capita)?

    Would you rather be a random Indonesian citizen or a random Swiss citizen?
    I would expect that there is much more growth potential for Swiss companies in the Indonesian market than Indonesian companies in the Swiss one.
    Yes because the Swiss are the stronger party.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,524
    IshmaelZ said:

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    A foreign bloke with a really funny name.
    Bit ostentatious with the accents. His name looks like the floor of a busy barbers shop.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    BBC News - Coronavirus: France sets daily record with almost 10,000 new cases
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54111209

    It's almost like the lockdown which has wrecked the world economy never actually happened.
    More like many nations squandered the time that had been bought by lockdown. The UK is (for once) one of the less serious offenders in this regard, although we're doing our level best to do so in the last week. Test and Trace is badly implemented but it is working well enough to provide some mitigation. We have lots of (but probably still not enough) testing capacity and the system of local lockdowns seems to have been working reasonably well until now. Spain was too desperate to get the tourists back and France seems to have been somewhat less than sharp on local lockdowns. Both have less home working than we do as well.

    The less said about the US the better.
  • nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    We can always rename it Winterval :lol:
  • alex_ said:

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    It feels as if they've seriously misjudged the attitude of not just mainstream Conservatives, but the right wing towards the issue of breaking International law. They might have got away with it if they had tried to argue that they were acting within the law (although it seems they couldn't even get Braverman to agree that), but the choice to "confront" what they were doing head on has killed them. They clearly put a bit too much store behind the initial attempt to cite the 2013 Finance Act as a precedent now this has been comprehensively debunked.

    They should have known a bit more about Thatcher's quotes on these issues which are devastating for them... At the moment it is looking difficult to see that they will get any votes in the Lords for this at all, including from some pretty extreme Brexiters. And now even the ERG seem to be coming out against it...

    You have to have at least some support in the Lords if you want to threaten them with a raft of new peers. And where would they get them from?
    It's the Jurassic Park thing; the government worried so much about whether they could do something that they ignored the question of whether they should do it.

    I've mentioned before the theory that the Gove-Cummings-Johnson nexus work on the basis that rules without unambiguous enforcement mechanisms can and should be ignored, and it looks like they put a lot of international law and treaties into that category.

    No, there isn't anyone who can make the UK follow the Withdrawal Agreement BoJo signed. But the consequent costs to the UK's reputation of playing silly games with it make it a really dumb idea.

    Maybe there is a Brilliant Plan to exploit the corner they've painted themselves into, but Heaven only knows what it is.
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The very best result next week would be for Parliament to vote down the Internal Market Bill. I hope there are enough Tory rebels to make sure this does not go through.

    Strangely this is not about Brexit. That is just the battlefield on which this is being played out. Brexit could happen perfectly well to the satisfaction of the vast majority of Leave voters (and given the alternative most Remain voters as well) without this idiocy.

    This is all about Johnson and his delusions that he is another Churchill. A 'meh' Bexit where things basically get sorted out without a huge fanfare of 'Victory over the Enemy' doesn't suit him at all. He has an eye for history and thinks that if it isn't 'glorious' then it isn't worth doing.

    The problem is there is no satisfactory Brexit for everyone.

    Diehard Remainers stlll oppose Brexit completely and want to rejoin the EU. Moderate Remainers and moderate Leavers may accept an EEA or EEA style FTA compromise which is the most the EU will give us but most Leavers would prefer No Deal WTO terms Brexit to that
    There never was going to be a satisfactory outcome for everyone. That is the nature of politics. But this has nothing to do with that. This is all about personal aggrandisement by Johnson.
    Hi Richard

    I know we have very different views on Cummings, although we agreed over his eye test. You’re a big admirer. I’m not.

    I have to say I see Cummings’ hand in this. It’s exactly the sort of thing he’s done before. Come up with an idea that sounds incredibly brilliant in isolation, and will never survive contact with reality, and then drive it through to show you can. Prorogation springs to mind. (I should mention I thought that was legal, although I also thought it was a very bad idea.)

    I speak from my experience of working in a sector he tried to reform, with disastrous results. You, on the other hand, have a much more detailed knowledge of his written work than I do.

    Do you think Cummings has anything to do with this? I’m genuinely interested in hearing your views. Because if he did, he will surely have to quit if the government is defeated - and if he didn’t, it suggests he’s lost a lot of personal influence although his style clearly remains intact.
    I would like to think not but I suspect that even if he didn't come up with the idea he must have at least agreed to it and game played it.

    As I said, although it is of course pure speculation, I see the driving force here being Johnson. I think he is desperate for this to be a fight rather than a negotiation and for him to come out as the conquering hero. He believes that whatever fallout there might be will be ancient history by the time the next election comes around. He also has a well deserved reputation for being scornful of the law, whether it is international or domestic. I assume this stems from a horrendous sense of privilege.

    So yes I think Cummings must have had something to do with this but unlike the previous 'wheezes' I think the driving force and the origins of this one lie firmly with Johnson.

    As an aside is Cummings even back at Number 10 at the moment? I know he was out because of his much delayed operation at the start of the month.
    The driving force of this is not Cummings or Johnson, its Farage.

    The tories don;t fear Roger irrelevant Keir Starmer.

    They fear a revival of the Brexit party, powered by a 'stab in the back' brexit and a mounting list of conservative voter grievances.

    A bad brexit or a cave in finishes Johnson's government, and it finishes the tories for a generation or more.
    The Tories would have done us all a favour if, years ago, they had tossed the ERG out on their ear and then stood moderate candidates.

    But they lacked the courage and the nerve to do it.
    You really don't get this democracy lark do you. The views of the ERG types reflect the views of a section of the electorate. Quite a large one it seems even if I don't agree with them.

    It was because so many MPs, particularly the party leaderships, failed to recognise this point and failed to represent the views of their voters that we ended up with Brexit and subsequently a Johnson majority.

    I do get this democracy lark - if the Tories had ejected the ERG they could have sat as independents and stood against moderate conservatives at the next election. The electorate would still have had a choice and the Tories would have removed the ERG knife from their jugular and probably given Farage a headache.

    They could have done this in either 2001 or 2005 when they never had a cat in hell's chance of being the govt. It would have been the perfect time to clear to the extremists and remain a moderate centre-right party.

    But they failed to do it and today they are paying the price.
    What price?

    The price of an 80 seat majority? Oh noes, the horror.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530
    PeterC said:

    alex_ said:

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    It feels as if they've seriously misjudged the attitude of not just mainstream Conservatives, but the right wing towards the issue of breaking International law. They might have got away with it if they had tried to argue that they were acting within the law (although it seems they couldn't even get Braverman to agree that), but the choice to "confront" what they were doing head on has killed them. They clearly put a bit too much store behind the initial attempt to cite the 2013 Finance Act as a precedent now this has been comprehensively debunked.

    They should have known a bit more about Thatcher's quotes on these issues which are devastating for them... At the moment it is looking difficult to see that they will get any votes in the Lords for this at all, including from some pretty extreme Brexiters. And now even the ERG seem to be coming out against it...

    You have to have at least some support in the Lords if you want to threaten them with a raft of new peers. And where would they get them from?
    Is there a whiff of Suez in the air? Imperial overreach. Overt lack of American support. Catastrophic back down. PM resigns on 'doctor's orders'. If so, who is SuperMac?
    SunMac.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,912

    alex_ said:

    I see Bernard Jenkin has come out against lawbreaking too.

    As a leading ERG'er that should help focus minds.

    Of course it won't. Doris (my portmanteau word for Dom and Boris) are up to something, rightly or wrongly, stupidly or cleverly, and either way, outraged politicians of all stripes are clearly a feature, not a bug.
    And yet so many people are just taking it all at face value. I'm telling you, human memories and attention spans have never been shorter...
    OK, help us out. How does Doris cash in on this?

    In late October 2019, there were plenty of people saying "NOOOOO! If you call an election now, the thoughtful anti-Boris voices will vanish from the Conservative benches, and the utter unelectability of Jez means that Doris will get a majority to do whatever the hell they want. And you, Nicola Krankie are being really selfish- yes, it will help you argue for Scottish independence, but what about us poor decent Sassenachs?" The rumour that a tired and emotional Dom is reputed to have been asking Labour bods for an election purllllleasssse shows that it was a really dumb idea. But an election happened, and the madness of the previous few months played to Boris's advantage.

    Now fast forward to 2020. A confected UK-EU fight undoubtedly puts lead in Boris's pencil. Sorry for that image, everyone. But for the reasons that everyone, up to and including Michael Howard, has articulated, it's terrible government. And only an utter psycho would call an election now.

    I articulated my theory earlier; Doris wants to shift the blame for whatever bad thing happens next onto either Remoaners or Brussels. But that depends on them playing ball. And Starmer, to Doris's visible frustration, isn't. And with years to the next election, it doesn't really matter anyway.

    So give us a clue. Go on, you know you want to.
    I will freely admit to being in the dark about what Doris ;) are up to, but I do think they're up to something.
    It feels as if they've seriously misjudged the attitude of not just mainstream Conservatives, but the right wing towards the issue of breaking International law. They might have got away with it if they had tried to argue that they were acting within the law (although it seems they couldn't even get Braverman to agree that), but the choice to "confront" what they were doing head on has killed them. They clearly put a bit too much store behind the initial attempt to cite the 2013 Finance Act as a precedent now this has been comprehensively debunked.

    They should have known a bit more about Thatcher's quotes on these issues which are devastating for them... At the moment it is looking difficult to see that they will get any votes in the Lords for this at all, including from some pretty extreme Brexiters. And now even the ERG seem to be coming out against it...

    You have to have at least some support in the Lords if you want to threaten them with a raft of new peers. And where would they get them from?
    It's the Jurassic Park thing; the government worried so much about whether they could do something that they ignored the question of whether they should do it.

    I've mentioned before the theory that the Gove-Cummings-Johnson nexus work on the basis that rules without unambiguous enforcement mechanisms can and should be ignored, and it looks like they put a lot of international law and treaties into that category.

    No, there isn't anyone who can make the UK follow the Withdrawal Agreement BoJo signed. But the consequent costs to the UK's reputation of playing silly games with it make it a really dumb idea.

    Maybe there is a Brilliant Plan to exploit the corner they've painted themselves into, but Heaven only knows what it is.
    Good point. The Jurassic Park one.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    A foreign bloke with a really funny name.
    He should have a nice proper English name like Sunil :lol:
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    That’s what a loss of status means. You need to get used to politicians you’ve never heard of calling the shots.
    Lol. The reason for leaving in a sentence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,039

    alex_ said:

    Who does Philip think would have the upper hand in a bilateral trade negotiation between the UK and Luxembourg?

    Since Luxembourg don't engage in trade negotiations on their own moot. If they did, they would.
    Do you think we should adopt Singapore’s regulations? They have the upper hand, right?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559
    edited September 10
    alex_ said:

    Who does Philip think would have the upper hand in a bilateral trade negotiation between the UK and Luxembourg?

    We'll have the upper hand in a negotiation with Luxembourg, under the leadership of Martin Lewis, now into his 4th term. We carefully saved our North sea oil reserves, and built up a nice sovereign wealth fund with the wonga.

    If you believe in the multiverse theory though, there's a counterfactual Luxembourg that has lashed itself to a larger supranational entity and we're led by some Tory backbencher buffoon, 'Boris' apparently. I think they'd have the advantage in that one.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530

    IshmaelZ said:

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    A foreign bloke with a really funny name.
    He should have a nice proper English name like Sunil :lol:
    I like the sound of "Rishi" right now.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,639

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The very best result next week would be for Parliament to vote down the Internal Market Bill. I hope there are enough Tory rebels to make sure this does not go through.

    Strangely this is not about Brexit. That is just the battlefield on which this is being played out. Brexit could happen perfectly well to the satisfaction of the vast majority of Leave voters (and given the alternative most Remain voters as well) without this idiocy.

    This is all about Johnson and his delusions that he is another Churchill. A 'meh' Bexit where things basically get sorted out without a huge fanfare of 'Victory over the Enemy' doesn't suit him at all. He has an eye for history and thinks that if it isn't 'glorious' then it isn't worth doing.

    The problem is there is no satisfactory Brexit for everyone.

    Diehard Remainers stlll oppose Brexit completely and want to rejoin the EU. Moderate Remainers and moderate Leavers may accept an EEA or EEA style FTA compromise which is the most the EU will give us but most Leavers would prefer No Deal WTO terms Brexit to that
    There never was going to be a satisfactory outcome for everyone. That is the nature of politics. But this has nothing to do with that. This is all about personal aggrandisement by Johnson.
    Hi Richard

    I know we have very different views on Cummings, although we agreed over his eye test. You’re a big admirer. I’m not.

    I have to say I see Cummings’ hand in this. It’s exactly the sort of thing he’s done before. Come up with an idea that sounds incredibly brilliant in isolation, and will never survive contact with reality, and then drive it through to show you can. Prorogation springs to mind. (I should mention I thought that was legal, although I also thought it was a very bad idea.)

    I speak from my experience of working in a sector he tried to reform, with disastrous results. You, on the other hand, have a much more detailed knowledge of his written work than I do.

    Do you think Cummings has anything to do with this? I’m genuinely interested in hearing your views. Because if he did, he will surely have to quit if the government is defeated - and if he didn’t, it suggests he’s lost a lot of personal influence although his style clearly remains intact.
    I would like to think not but I suspect that even if he didn't come up with the idea he must have at least agreed to it and game played it.

    As I said, although it is of course pure speculation, I see the driving force here being Johnson. I think he is desperate for this to be a fight rather than a negotiation and for him to come out as the conquering hero. He believes that whatever fallout there might be will be ancient history by the time the next election comes around. He also has a well deserved reputation for being scornful of the law, whether it is international or domestic. I assume this stems from a horrendous sense of privilege.

    So yes I think Cummings must have had something to do with this but unlike the previous 'wheezes' I think the driving force and the origins of this one lie firmly with Johnson.

    As an aside is Cummings even back at Number 10 at the moment? I know he was out because of his much delayed operation at the start of the month.
    The driving force of this is not Cummings or Johnson, its Farage.

    The tories don;t fear Roger irrelevant Keir Starmer.

    They fear a revival of the Brexit party, powered by a 'stab in the back' brexit and a mounting list of conservative voter grievances.

    A bad brexit or a cave in finishes Johnson's government, and it finishes the tories for a generation or more.
    The Tories would have done us all a favour if, years ago, they had tossed the ERG out on their ear and then stood moderate candidates.

    But they lacked the courage and the nerve to do it.
    You really don't get this democracy lark do you. The views of the ERG types reflect the views of a section of the electorate. Quite a large one it seems even if I don't agree with them.

    It was because so many MPs, particularly the party leaderships, failed to recognise this point and failed to represent the views of their voters that we ended up with Brexit and subsequently a Johnson majority.

    I do get this democracy lark - if the Tories had ejected the ERG they could have sat as independents and stood against moderate conservatives at the next election. The electorate would still have had a choice and the Tories would have removed the ERG knife from their jugular and probably given Farage a headache.

    They could have done this in either 2001 or 2005 when they never had a cat in hell's chance of being the govt. It would have been the perfect time to clear to the extremists and remain a moderate centre-right party.

    But they failed to do it and today they are paying the price.
    What price?

    The price of an 80 seat majority? Oh noes, the horror.
    Learn to read Philip - in 2001 and 2005 they did not have ANY majority
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,751

    The very best result next week would be for Parliament to vote down the Internal Market Bill. I hope there are enough Tory rebels to make sure this does not go through.

    Strangely this is not about Brexit. That is just the battlefield on which this is being played out. Brexit could happen perfectly well to the satisfaction of the vast majority of Leave voters (and given the alternative most Remain voters as well) without this idiocy.

    This is all about Johnson and his delusions that he is another Churchill. A 'meh' Bexit where things basically get sorted out without a huge fanfare of 'Victory over the Enemy' doesn't suit him at all. He has an eye for history and thinks that if it isn't 'glorious' then it isn't worth doing.

    An excellent comment, Richard.
  • I wonder if in years to come we will look back on this moment as the end of the Tory Government, or whether it was the start of the next supermajority
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,472
    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    One titbit from below article is that the Control Center have been working on this plan since July. Presumably decided now was their Falklands moment. A Galtieri Falklands moment

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/10/governments-top-legal-advisers-divided-over-move-to-override-brexit-deal
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559

    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.

    My christmas group is always 5 to 6 people.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,039
    welshowl said:

    Oh no not Maroš Šefčovič. Whenever Maroš Šefčovič gets upset then heads will roll. Look out everyone Maroš Šefčovič is on the rampage.

    Who is Maroš Šefčovič?

    That’s what a loss of status means. You need to get used to politicians you’ve never heard of calling the shots.
    Lol. The reason for leaving in a sentence.
    If you think being in the EU is bad, wait until you try not being in the EU.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.

    Yup said this earlier in the day: a Govt excuse to not visit family will be welcomed by many (secretly!).
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530
    Pulpstar said:

    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.

    My christmas group is always 5 to 6 people.
    I'm in a bubble with my mother-in-sin so I might actually be able to go somewhere for Christmas.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,043

    nichomar said:

    Cancelling Christmas is having a greater impact than whatever game Johnson is playing. If he thinks the legal issues cut any sway with the public then he’s wrong. Get brexit done in the least harmful way and start showing some leadership on covid which the public are willing to support.

    We can always rename it Winterval :lol:
    Rescheduled for April
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,444
    OnboardG1 said:

    BBC News - Coronavirus: France sets daily record with almost 10,000 new cases
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54111209

    It's almost like the lockdown which has wrecked the world economy never actually happened.
    More like many nations squandered the time that had been bought by lockdown. The UK is (for once) one of the less serious offenders in this regard, although we're doing our level best to do so in the last week. Test and Trace is badly implemented but it is working well enough to provide some mitigation. We have lots of (but probably still not enough) testing capacity and the system of local lockdowns seems to have been working reasonably well until now. Spain was too desperate to get the tourists back and France seems to have been somewhat less than sharp on local lockdowns. Both have less home working than we do as well.

    The less said about the US the better.


    Saving lives is not incompatible with saving an economy.
  • OnboardG1 said:


    Pulpstar said:

    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.

    My christmas group is always 5 to 6 people.
    I'm in a bubble with my mother-in-sin so I might actually be able to go somewhere for Christmas.
    LOL @ mother-in-sin, never heard that it is good.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 530
    FF43 said:

    One titbit from below article is that the Control Center have been working on this plan since July. Presumably decided now was their Falklands moment. A Galtieri Falklands moment

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/10/governments-top-legal-advisers-divided-over-move-to-override-brexit-deal

    Wasn't that a line from Yes Prime Minister?

    Hacker: "This could be my Falklands War"
    Sir Hump: "Yes, and you would be General Galtieri"
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The very best result next week would be for Parliament to vote down the Internal Market Bill. I hope there are enough Tory rebels to make sure this does not go through.

    Strangely this is not about Brexit. That is just the battlefield on which this is being played out. Brexit could happen perfectly well to the satisfaction of the vast majority of Leave voters (and given the alternative most Remain voters as well) without this idiocy.

    This is all about Johnson and his delusions that he is another Churchill. A 'meh' Bexit where things basically get sorted out without a huge fanfare of 'Victory over the Enemy' doesn't suit him at all. He has an eye for history and thinks that if it isn't 'glorious' then it isn't worth doing.

    The problem is there is no satisfactory Brexit for everyone.

    Diehard Remainers stlll oppose Brexit completely and want to rejoin the EU. Moderate Remainers and moderate Leavers may accept an EEA or EEA style FTA compromise which is the most the EU will give us but most Leavers would prefer No Deal WTO terms Brexit to that
    There never was going to be a satisfactory outcome for everyone. That is the nature of politics. But this has nothing to do with that. This is all about personal aggrandisement by Johnson.
    Hi Richard

    I know we have very different views on Cummings, although we agreed over his eye test. You’re a big admirer. I’m not.

    I have to say I see Cummings’ hand in this. It’s exactly the sort of thing he’s done before. Come up with an idea that sounds incredibly brilliant in isolation, and will never survive contact with reality, and then drive it through to show you can. Prorogation springs to mind. (I should mention I thought that was legal, although I also thought it was a very bad idea.)

    I speak from my experience of working in a sector he tried to reform, with disastrous results. You, on the other hand, have a much more detailed knowledge of his written work than I do.

    Do you think Cummings has anything to do with this? I’m genuinely interested in hearing your views. Because if he did, he will surely have to quit if the government is defeated - and if he didn’t, it suggests he’s lost a lot of personal influence although his style clearly remains intact.
    I would like to think not but I suspect that even if he didn't come up with the idea he must have at least agreed to it and game played it.

    As I said, although it is of course pure speculation, I see the driving force here being Johnson. I think he is desperate for this to be a fight rather than a negotiation and for him to come out as the conquering hero. He believes that whatever fallout there might be will be ancient history by the time the next election comes around. He also has a well deserved reputation for being scornful of the law, whether it is international or domestic. I assume this stems from a horrendous sense of privilege.

    So yes I think Cummings must have had something to do with this but unlike the previous 'wheezes' I think the driving force and the origins of this one lie firmly with Johnson.

    As an aside is Cummings even back at Number 10 at the moment? I know he was out because of his much delayed operation at the start of the month.
    The driving force of this is not Cummings or Johnson, its Farage.

    The tories don;t fear Roger irrelevant Keir Starmer.

    They fear a revival of the Brexit party, powered by a 'stab in the back' brexit and a mounting list of conservative voter grievances.

    A bad brexit or a cave in finishes Johnson's government, and it finishes the tories for a generation or more.
    The Tories would have done us all a favour if, years ago, they had tossed the ERG out on their ear and then stood moderate candidates.

    But they lacked the courage and the nerve to do it.
    You really don't get this democracy lark do you. The views of the ERG types reflect the views of a section of the electorate. Quite a large one it seems even if I don't agree with them.

    It was because so many MPs, particularly the party leaderships, failed to recognise this point and failed to represent the views of their voters that we ended up with Brexit and subsequently a Johnson majority.

    I do get this democracy lark - if the Tories had ejected the ERG they could have sat as independents and stood against moderate conservatives at the next election. The electorate would still have had a choice and the Tories would have removed the ERG knife from their jugular and probably given Farage a headache.

    They could have done this in either 2001 or 2005 when they never had a cat in hell's chance of being the govt. It would have been the perfect time to clear to the extremists and remain a moderate centre-right party.

    But they failed to do it and today they are paying the price.
    What price?

    The price of an 80 seat majority? Oh noes, the horror.
    Learn to read Philip - in 2001 and 2005 they did not have ANY majority
    I know that, but you said "today they are paying the price."

    Today we have an 80 seat majority, some price to be paid.

    Hope we're paying a comparable price after the next election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,444
    edited September 10

    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.

    It does rather limit the size of "Brexit at last" booze ups too on New Years Eve.
  • alex_ said:

    Who does Philip think would have the upper hand in a bilateral trade negotiation between the UK and Luxembourg?

    Since Luxembourg don't engage in trade negotiations on their own moot. If they did, they would.
    Do you think we should adopt Singapore’s regulations? They have the upper hand, right?
    Singapore absolutely have the upper hand over the EU, 100% they do.

    That is why the EU are terrified at the prospect of us becoming a Singapore on the Atlantic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559
    Foxy said:

    Bozo should be congratulated for giving us an oven-ready excuse for not visiting the in-laws at Christmas.

    Plus we'll be spared the Christmas morning boastathon on Classic FM from listeners trying to outdo each other on how many they are cooking for.

    It does rather limit the size of "Brexit at last" booze ups too on New Years Eve.
    The restrictions will change my normal NYE plans for sure, along with most other peoples I think.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,588
    edited September 10
    For Philip - let's try another approach to explain the issue

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Foxy said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    BBC News - Coronavirus: France sets daily record with almost 10,000 new cases
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54111209

    It's almost like the lockdown which has wrecked the world economy never actually happened.
    More like many nations squandered the time that had been bought by lockdown. The UK is (for once) one of the less serious offenders in this regard, although we're doing our level best to do so in the last week. Test and Trace is badly implemented but it is working well enough to provide some mitigation. We have lots of (but probably still not enough) testing capacity and the system of local lockdowns seems to have been working reasonably well until now. Spain was too desperate to get the tourists back and France seems to have been somewhat less than sharp on local lockdowns. Both have less home working than we do as well.

    The less said about the US the better.


    Saving lives is not incompatible with saving an economy.
    This may be one of those correlation is not causation situations. In other words well run countries - UK not included - manage to run a decent economy while not killing their citizens.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,531
    Nigelb said:

    The very best result next week would be for Parliament to vote down the Internal Market Bill. I hope there are enough Tory rebels to make sure this does not go through.

    Strangely this is not about Brexit. That is just the battlefield on which this is being played out. Brexit could happen perfectly well to the satisfaction of the vast majority of Leave voters (and given the alternative most Remain voters as well) without this idiocy.

    This is all about Johnson and his delusions that he is another Churchill. A 'meh' Bexit where things basically get sorted out without a huge fanfare of 'Victory over the Enemy' doesn't suit him at all. He has an eye for history and thinks that if it isn't 'glorious' then it isn't worth doing.

    An excellent comment, Richard.
    Egged on and guided by his very own Rasputin.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559
    eek said:

    For Philip - let's try another approach to explain the issue

    I think what Boris is doing is a nonsense, but surely this means Tony Blair will be up before SCOTUK before long ?
This discussion has been closed.