Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brussels ups the the ante over the Johnson/Cummings EU deal ov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brussels ups the the ante over the Johnson/Cummings EU deal override move
The stakes go up. Commission VP Maroš Šef?ovi? has issued an ultimatum to the UK Govt to scrap the Withdrawal Agreement override by the end of this month. If it doesn't, he suggests the trade deal negotiation will end and the EU will sue.https://t.co/C2dWUKEb33
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
He knows Brexit is going to be a disaster he wants to poison the well so much that the EU will never want us back.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/trump-bob-woodward-book-411225
...“Trump loves brands, and Woodward has been the gold standard for 50 years of investigative journalism around the presidency, so it's the same reason why he likes the Gray Lady, he likes The New York Times. It's the paper of record traditionally in his hometown, so even though both excoriate him, he's attracted to them the way a low-IQ small moth would be to a flame,” said Anthony Scaramucci, who briefly served as White House communications director under Trump. “Trump is always convinced that if he talks to the person, he is going to elucidate and enlighten that person and get them to like him.”...
Still not enough. Needs leading lights in the ERG (MPs) to come out against it.
Steve Baker would help.
Cummings is a different matter.
This isn't where I expected the talks to end up though I must admit. This has given the EU every excuse to end the talks and blame us, I thought the government would if there's a failure in the talks be looking to play the blame game more rather than take on the blame like this.
But ultimately the EU has been playing hardball and IMO has been going back on its word. Now the UK is showing it is playing hardball too.
He bullshits as he goes along. Maybe if his bullshit is called he'll fold and bullshit that he never did.
But, Cummings has his balls in a vice so I'm not betting on it.
Brexit was always a fantasy because it meant too many different things to too many people. And so it is turning out.
That was my point.
I spoke to someone who said the reason why Boris Johnson will deny another Indyref on his watch, so he won't be the PM that lost the Union.
He doesn't care that doing that makes a Yes victory inevitable, so long as another PM loses the Union.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-might-be-scaring-off-older-voters/
“Most of the activities you normally have here in adult Disney World are closed down,” Bryan Casey told me recently by phone from The Villages, Florida, one of the country’s largest retirement communities. COVID-19 has dulled the normally vibrant social lives of Villages residents, who typically spend their days on eternal summer vacation. The town squares that anchor the sprawling development, usually filled with drinking and dancing and music, have been shut down. “Open The Squares? Look At What Is Happening At The Colleges,” read the headline on a recent letter to the editor at Villages News.
In Sumter County, where The Villages is situated, Donald Trump won 68.3 percent of the vote in 2016, and no other county in Florida had a higher turnout. But, Casey — the communications director of the Villages Democratic Club — said, “I have a couple of friends I know who voted for Trump in 2016 who say that they won’t do that this time.” But few would be willing to admit that publicly. “You’ve got to live here to understand that,” he said...
Yadda Yadda
At least we can stop hearing about chlorinated chicken now.
They vote.
Did Cumming's little tabletop wargame predict the US reaction?
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1304085246468653061
Parity with the Euro would be embarrassing?
Laughable.
You also still haven’t read or absorbed my post, or the tweets from Mark Elliott. This is not about whether Parliament can pass legislation or not. Of course it can. It just can’t release itself from the obligations the executive has bound us by in international law.
They have always said they wouldn't deal with us, which seems strange as we are supposed to be close allies.
Any way the talks ended without a deal would see this happen.
Our exporters could be more competitive even with tariffs then.
Keir Starmer will have to come out against this move, otherwise he will be associated with it. The "thinking" from the Cummings cabal seems to be to flush Labour on this, so Starmer will have to play it carefully. I think he's capable of that. He could use a "Stop playing games and get Brexit done" line. Always nice to throw a slogan back at someone.
Suella Baverman's legal position is indeed risible (FPT). She misleads on the points of law.
If you think Boris will fall hard & fast (unlikely, but not impossible) you can get 15.5 on him going this year on Betfair.
Just like when Parliament voted to ratify the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum despite a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum first.
Just like when the French and Dutch Parliaments voted to ratify the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum despite the Constitution being rejected by their voters in a referendum first.
The EU was happy to facilitate its member states governments going back on their own word to their own voters.
I suppose my take is this: The UK Government has not minded telling the EU to eff-off with its ridiculous demands, because all things considered, No trade deal is not a terrible position for the UK, and is indeed 'worse for the EU'. However, the EU has found a way to squeeze hard on the NI issue, and make some hard threats on what they would do in the event of No trade deal. The UK Government have therefore had to neutralise this threat to reach equilibrium again.
Read like that, it's not entirely a cause for pessimism. It shows that the EU are clearly negotiating very aggressively for a trade deal, the UK Government is less committed either way.
Bozo trashed the currency last autumn when I was in the US. I seem to be jinxed as far as Sterling strength is concerned.
There are loonies on both sides. If there's a sensible argument to be made here (which I will take responsibility for) it's that in any revolutionary act you get polarisation to the extremes, with moderates crushed in the middle.
One pole wins, the other loses, and then that pole proceeds to destroy everything.
You then have to slowly rebuild.
Maybe I was naive. But I haven't been a pawn.
The executive signs treaties. It freely signed the treaty. Parliament then gives effect to it in domestic law. Parliament repealing that act does not change our international law obligations. We then become in breach.
You argue that it doesn’t matter, and that’s fine. You may well be right, but you also may well be wrong. Let’s see what the consequences are.
So 3 countries said something and then did something else. What did the EU actually do?
It's sort of like saying because Little Piddleton Parish Council hasn't enacted a version of the Homicide Act you can kill people at will in Little Piddleton
Brexit as a concept is just a fantasy. Take back control, reclaim sovereignty. Pick and choose which bits we keep, which we jettison. Means nothing. In practicality, because of our past 40 years it could never be delivered. Except if we had a government that was happy to torch the reputation and economic prospects of its own country.
You have the Union Flag on your posts. You should be weeping at what the Brexiters have done to the UK.
The judgement is clear. On British soil Parliament is sovereign.
Suella Braverman is a feature not a bug of this corrupt regime.
I remember when Obama gave Gordon Brown a present of some old region 1 DVDs that you can't actually play in the UK for their big meeting.
Our Government could do a lot more reward longer term investment using the tax system I think. To say nothing of the honours system.
Basically we now have 3 zones in England on ONS:
High infection: a crescent from the Wirral through Leeds and Ripon up along the NE coast to Blyth and covering the lockdown zones, plus an area around Birmingham. The question for government is which they do they now swing with local social lockdowns under and below the 6 person rule - do they pull these back to the worst hotspots like Bolton and Bradford or do they apply something more widely across the north.
Mid infection: most of the rest of England from Sheffield and Stoke downwards.
Lower infection: Beyond Exeter; an area bounded by M62, A1 and A14; national park areas of N. England
Arcgis seems to be lining back up with the ZOE symptom tracker as well as rates rise (ZOE tended to find some funny outliers at lower infection levels due to MOE)
I wouldn't overplay your hand. The deal is there aside from state aid and fish, which could and would have both been agreed.
It's just some nutters in Government are obsessing about totally pure State Aid and want to blow it (and the WA) up over it.
International law is about international relations, there is no International Supreme Court to settle this.