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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will win the first Presidential debate?
Ladbrokes have a market up on the first scheduled Presidential debate for the end of September and my first instinct is to back Biden.
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The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.
It's not possible for Boris to commit to future UK plans because the future hasn't happened yet. He may have plans, but if so he has to take them through Parliament first. Even if he does no PM can bind his successor, if we don't like his plans then Starmer may have different ones. Or Sunak might. Or whoever in the future is PM.
The whole point of Brexit is not going from one plan to a fixed other. It's going from EU control to Parliamentary Sovereignty. What Parliament approves in the future is up to Parliament ... not Boris.
It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
Biden, conversely, has early stage alzheimers and can't even read a teleprompter.
‘Time is up for Richard Leonard with Labour on a road to nowhere‘
- It was a dizzying cocktail of defiance and delusion
It’s not just Labour colleagues who believe Leonard must go. Senior members of the Conservative party dearly want to see him replaced, even – no, especially – if that means Labour becomes a strong political force once more.
As First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to demand from the UK Government the right to hold a second independence referendum, Conservative strategists believe the Union will only survive if there’s a strong Scottish Labour Party playing its part in the battle.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/time-richard-leonard-labour-road-nowhere-euan-mccolm-2962768
Biden:
'Don't I wish I were debating him?' No, I wish we were in high school – I could take him behind the gym,” Biden said. “That's what I wish.“
Trump:
"He wants to bring me to the back of the barn. Ooooh. Some things in life you could really love doing."
https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/1302596529514000384?s=20
This looks like an interesting read. The basic idea: the Left's embrace of meritocracy has left it with nothing to offer the working class and opened the door for the right to foster a culture of cultural resentment. As a beneficiary of meritocracy I have always been a believer in it, but its downsides as a guiding philosophy for the left are increasingly apparent.
*Wrong minorities defined by their success**. A successful minority person is a "white" person in such thinking.
**Yes, indeed.
Trump can probably blunder his way through with his titanic self confidence that people seem to like, while Biden will try to avoid any big traps.
What we need, is the equivalent of -
A poll of the population, in effect.
I have not found such data for Scotland or Wales.
It is worth noting that the ONS - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest - found no evidence that regional infection rates are very different. So this *might* apply to Scotland and Wales as well.
UPDATE - found this for Wales
The Tories are realising they once again need their SLAB penal battalions to skin for the Unionist tulchan coos and send over No Man's Land, as in 2014, if that isn't mixing metaphors too much.
I actually agree that even if the referendum comment has been a cast iron commitment if enough people wish to have one anyway that takes precedence, but everyone is a cherry picker on past comments and future plans.
Cn you tell which animal is the elephant and can you count backwards fro 100 in 7s? Of course you can.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12175283/trump-montreal-cognitive-assessment-test-aced/
If the SNP win a majority pledging a referendum they have a moral mandate to hold a referendum.
The SNP don't have the legal right to do so (probably) since constitutional matters are a reserved matter and Scotland isn't a sovereign country. But it would be a humongous own goal by unionists to force the issue on this, if they do that it would be a gift to the SNP who would be locked on major favourites to win the next inevitable referendum then.
How did Biden do on the test?
Low bars and all that.
Before local elections etc here normally all parties here always seem to play down their chances and do expectations management. But in the USA for Trump supporters especially it's all about how he is going to win bigly.
However Trump lost all 3 debates against Hillary in 2016 and his supporters still voted for him
I may not have called that right. But I have yet to see anyone who wasn't a critic of Boris already harping on about it.
Heading to something like this in November. https://www.270towin.com/maps/jerl6
However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.
Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.
If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.
However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302483498951901185?s=20
If there's a direct swing from Trump to his opponent plus his opponent carries third party votes then Trump is going to struggle.
Look at Pennsylvania. Trump won by just 0.71%. Plus nearly 5% voted third party.
If your logic is right then Trump would struggle to be competitive in PA.
Thank God
Biden should pick up Nebraska 02 yes as well as Arizona though as I think Johnson was slightly above his national average in the plain states and well above his national average in the West but below his national average in the rustbelt
Tories living in a fantasy land again
We must assume there is a likely chance England is next
https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1302626250746462211
https://fullfact.org/online/keir-starmer-prosecute-jimmy-savile/
A spokesperson for the Labour party said they could not comment on individual cases, but insisted Mr Starmer “put victims at the heart of the judicial system” during his time as DPP, including improving support for victims of sexual and domestic violence and introducing a right for victims to challenge CPS decisions.
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/indyref2-kezia-dugdale-snp-majority-18884296
Yet more fake news from the SNP’s nuttier supporters. They aren’t covering themselves in glory.
F1: entertaining race. Like Ricciardo last weekend, Sainz must've been wishing for more laps.
Rambly stuff here: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/09/italy-post-race-analysis-2020.html
Anyway, must be off again.
Today, you have turned 1.1% into "1 to 2%".
If the underestimation is 2%, then that is almost twice the underestimation of 2016.
Arizona, Florida, Michigan, NE-2, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah (!) and Wisconsin.
Which would probably be enough for him to claim victory.
Hillary won the popular vote anyway but it was those 3 states which won Trump the EC and the presidency
Gloucestershire's Bob Willis Trophy game with Northamptonshire has been abandoned after a Northants squad member tested positive for Covid-19.
The player was not part of the group that travelled to Bristol but had been in contact with other squad members within 48 hours of developing symptoms.
A statement issued by both clubs said the decision had been taken "in the interests of player welfare".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/54044688
And then there might be awkward questions about which political party knighted Saville and which one gave him a formal role on the Board of Broadmoor Hospital.
The Tories would be ill-advised to go down this route. Starmer may not have been the most brilliant DPP there has ever been but he tried to do his job in compliance with the law. Whereas Johnson’s approach to compliance with the law is, well, a bit more complicated.
You posted a Nate Silver tweet yesterday: once Biden gets to a 3.5% national lead, then his chance of winning the electoral college moves to around 75%. On current polls, even if the polling error is twice 2016's (i.e. 2.2%), then Biden is extremely unlikely to lose.
To win, and it is far from impossible this happens, President Trump needs to see either:
(a) The polls moving in his favour. (Which they're not. Biden is back up to 50.5% in the 538 poll of polls.)
or
(b) A polling error of not twice 2016 (which would be quite significant in itself), but maybe four times (which would extraordinary, and which hasn't happened in living memory).
If the election were held tomorrow, I would reckon it would be an 88-92% chance of a Biden victory. But it's not. It's held in 58 days time. And Trump needs to see Biden's share start to drop, because right now, it's looking dangerously steady.
The demand for a second referendum post a successful SNP ballot next spring will make it impossible to avoid and you really do not understand that the best way to win for the union is to argue in favour in a properly agreed vote
I expect that sometime next year Starmer will back the call and I also expect some conservatives to support a vote
You also assume Boris will be in place next year and on his present performances there is a big question mark over that
https://twitter.com/fwildecricket/status/1302635099939319808?s=19
While over on BBC, they are talking about home schooling during lockdown.