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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will win the first Presidential debate?

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 6 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will win the first Presidential debate?

Ladbrokes have a market up on the first scheduled Presidential debate for the end of September and my first instinct is to back Biden.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    Yes, hard to see Trump winning a debate against anyone.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,817
    Not really second
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 16,372
    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.
  • FPT

    Scott_xP said:
    Why are Tories suddenly so interested in State Aid? Seems mighty suspicious to me. The party hasn't given a f about it since Heseltine was active.
    Because "state aid" is a misnomer.

    Under the EU's proposal actions we took to make ourselves more competitive, including changes of law and tax cuts, could be counted as "state aid". They're not actually arguing about state aid as it normally is considered to mean - the UK has already offered rules against that which are standard in normal FTAs eg CETA, but the EU is wanting to go miles above and beyond that.
    Trouble is that none of us know what the UK plans, because they're not saying. Freedom to do whatever is right for us is a slogan, not a plan.

    The James Forsythe piece on Friday - that the government wants the freedom to subsidise a tech sector into being - probably won't work, but is as plausible a steer on the government's thinking as any.

    Can't imagine libertarians liking it. Still, we'll be here for you when Boris let's you down.
    You're still struggling to understand the concept of Taking Back Control and Parliamentary Sovereignty aren't you?

    It's not possible for Boris to commit to future UK plans because the future hasn't happened yet. He may have plans, but if so he has to take them through Parliament first. Even if he does no PM can bind his successor, if we don't like his plans then Starmer may have different ones. Or Sunak might. Or whoever in the future is PM.

    The whole point of Brexit is not going from one plan to a fixed other. It's going from EU control to Parliamentary Sovereignty. What Parliament approves in the future is up to Parliament ... not Boris.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 348
    Alistair said:

    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.

    Couldn't that apply to both candidates though?

    It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 16,372

    Alistair said:

    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.

    Couldn't that apply to both candidates though?

    It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
    Trump scored the highest ever on the cognitive test. Doctors haven't seen anyone do as well as Trump. They were shocked.

    Biden, conversely, has early stage alzheimers and can't even read a teleprompter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,746

    What Parliament approves in the future is up to Parliament ... not Boris.

    Which is why he had to illegally prorogue it
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,817
    The Police intervene in a party of 100 people in Lorca (Murcia). The Local Police of Lorca (Murcia) has sealed this morning a restaurant in the hamlet of Campillo inside which a party was held from which about a hundred people were evicted, as the Security Councilor, José Luis Ruiz, has informed Efe. This is the Darfary grill, where a karaoke was held and where the agents identified and sanctioned customers who violated social distancing, exceeded the maximum number of six diners per table and who were ordering at the bar, which must be obligatorily closed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,228
    Saw the Sky News interview with Richard Leonard: tragic.

    ‘Time is up for Richard Leonard with Labour on a road to nowhere‘
    - It was a dizzying cocktail of defiance and delusion

    It’s not just Labour colleagues who believe Leonard must go. Senior members of the Conservative party dearly want to see him replaced, even – no, especially – if that means Labour becomes a strong political force once more.

    As First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to demand from the UK Government the right to hold a second independence referendum, Conservative strategists believe the Union will only survive if there’s a strong Scottish Labour Party playing its part in the battle.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/time-richard-leonard-labour-road-nowhere-euan-mccolm-2962768
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 6,706
    edited September 6
    Will they have Jeremy Kyle style bouncers at this event? Id back some form of physical confrontation at 33/1.

    Biden:

    'Don't I wish I were debating him?' No, I wish we were in high school – I could take him behind the gym,” Biden said. “That's what I wish.“

    Trump:

    "He wants to bring me to the back of the barn. Ooooh. Some things in life you could really love doing."
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,970
    That thing when you wind up your moral outrage at the Natz and then realise that it's one of your fellow Unionists being a dick.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,284
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/sep/06/michael-sandel-the-populist-backlash-has-been-a-revolt-against-the-tyranny-of-merit

    This looks like an interesting read. The basic idea: the Left's embrace of meritocracy has left it with nothing to offer the working class and opened the door for the right to foster a culture of cultural resentment. As a beneficiary of meritocracy I have always been a believer in it, but its downsides as a guiding philosophy for the left are increasingly apparent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,022
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, hard to see Trump winning a debate against anyone.

    Don't give the PM aspirations.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 348
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.

    Couldn't that apply to both candidates though?

    It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
    Trump scored the highest ever on the cognitive test. Doctors haven't seen anyone do as well as Trump. They were shocked.

    Biden, conversely, has early stage alzheimers and can't even read a teleprompter.
    Well of course Trump has been bigging himself up, but plenty of people have said he's going senile recently.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/sep/06/michael-sandel-the-populist-backlash-has-been-a-revolt-against-the-tyranny-of-merit

    This looks like an interesting read. The basic idea: the Left's embrace of meritocracy has left it with nothing to offer the working class and opened the door for the right to foster a culture of cultural resentment. As a beneficiary of meritocracy I have always been a believer in it, but its downsides as a guiding philosophy for the left are increasingly apparent.

    Alternatively, the results of meritocracy are not what the Guardian wants. Too many of the wrong minorities*.

    *Wrong minorities defined by their success**. A successful minority person is a "white" person in such thinking.
    **Yes, indeed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 16,372
    Scott_xP said:
    Yhr Glasgow test positive rate looks like it will be shooting above 2.5%
  • malcolmg22malcolmg22 Posts: 185

    FPT

    Scott_xP said:
    Why are Tories suddenly so interested in State Aid? Seems mighty suspicious to me. The party hasn't given a f about it since Heseltine was active.
    Because "state aid" is a misnomer.

    Under the EU's proposal actions we took to make ourselves more competitive, including changes of law and tax cuts, could be counted as "state aid". They're not actually arguing about state aid as it normally is considered to mean - the UK has already offered rules against that which are standard in normal FTAs eg CETA, but the EU is wanting to go miles above and beyond that.
    Trouble is that none of us know what the UK plans, because they're not saying. Freedom to do whatever is right for us is a slogan, not a plan.

    The James Forsythe piece on Friday - that the government wants the freedom to subsidise a tech sector into being - probably won't work, but is as plausible a steer on the government's thinking as any.

    Can't imagine libertarians liking it. Still, we'll be here for you when Boris let's you down.
    You're still struggling to understand the concept of Taking Back Control and Parliamentary Sovereignty aren't you?

    It's not possible for Boris to commit to future UK plans because the future hasn't happened yet. He may have plans, but if so he has to take them through Parliament first. Even if he does no PM can bind his successor, if we don't like his plans then Starmer may have different ones. Or Sunak might. Or whoever in the future is PM.

    The whole point of Brexit is not going from one plan to a fixed other. It's going from EU control to Parliamentary Sovereignty. What Parliament approves in the future is up to Parliament ... not Boris.
    Why then do Tories on here talk absolute bollox about Scottish referendum and claim a throwaway remark is bound in stone for 40 years. Tories on here hav emore faces than the town clock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,968
    edited September 6
    People who dont watch the debate will be winners.

    Trump can probably blunder his way through with his titanic self confidence that people seem to like, while Biden will try to avoid any big traps.
  • malcolmg22malcolmg22 Posts: 185

    That thing when you wind up your moral outrage at the Natz and then realise that it's one of your fellow Unionists being a dick.

    Unbelievably they are even more stupid than they look, I would have said it was impossible but they keep proving me wrong.
  • malcolmg22malcolmg22 Posts: 185

    Saw the Sky News interview with Richard Leonard: tragic.

    ‘Time is up for Richard Leonard with Labour on a road to nowhere‘
    - It was a dizzying cocktail of defiance and delusion

    It’s not just Labour colleagues who believe Leonard must go. Senior members of the Conservative party dearly want to see him replaced, even – no, especially – if that means Labour becomes a strong political force once more.

    As First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to demand from the UK Government the right to hold a second independence referendum, Conservative strategists believe the Union will only survive if there’s a strong Scottish Labour Party playing its part in the battle.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/time-richard-leonard-labour-road-nowhere-euan-mccolm-2962768

    Why she begs Westminster is beyond me, time to just state if May election goes the way it looks then there will be a referendum and set a date.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    edited September 6
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Yhr Glasgow test positive rate looks like it will be shooting above 2.5%
    These are case numbers. Not infection surveys.

    What we need, is the equivalent of -

    image

    A poll of the population, in effect.

    I have not found such data for Scotland or Wales.

    It is worth noting that the ONS - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest - found no evidence that regional infection rates are very different. So this *might* apply to Scotland and Wales as well.

    UPDATE - found this for Wales

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,595
    edited September 6
    FPT

    Saw the Sky News interview with Richard Leonard: tragic.

    ‘Time is up for Richard Leonard with Labour on a road to nowhere‘
    - It was a dizzying cocktail of defiance and delusion

    It’s not just Labour colleagues who believe Leonard must go. Senior members of the Conservative party dearly want to see him replaced, even – no, especially – if that means Labour becomes a strong political force once more.

    As First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to demand from the UK Government the right to hold a second independence referendum, Conservative strategists believe the Union will only survive if there’s a strong Scottish Labour Party playing its part in the battle.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/time-richard-leonard-labour-road-nowhere-euan-mccolm-2962768



    The Tories are realising they once again need their SLAB penal battalions to skin for the Unionist tulchan coos and send over No Man's Land, as in 2014, if that isn't mixing metaphors too much.
  • Biden should be heavy favourite for this surely simply on the fact that there are far more Biden supporters than Trump supporters in the polls already. Most people tend to say their own man or woman won any debate and unless the sample is wildly unrepresentative then even a drawn debate should surely be polled as a Biden victory?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,746

    Why she begs Westminster is beyond me

    Because it's the law, and she's not as daft as her supporters
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,968

    FPT

    Scott_xP said:
    Why are Tories suddenly so interested in State Aid? Seems mighty suspicious to me. The party hasn't given a f about it since Heseltine was active.
    Because "state aid" is a misnomer.

    Under the EU's proposal actions we took to make ourselves more competitive, including changes of law and tax cuts, could be counted as "state aid". They're not actually arguing about state aid as it normally is considered to mean - the UK has already offered rules against that which are standard in normal FTAs eg CETA, but the EU is wanting to go miles above and beyond that.
    Trouble is that none of us know what the UK plans, because they're not saying. Freedom to do whatever is right for us is a slogan, not a plan.

    The James Forsythe piece on Friday - that the government wants the freedom to subsidise a tech sector into being - probably won't work, but is as plausible a steer on the government's thinking as any.

    Can't imagine libertarians liking it. Still, we'll be here for you when Boris let's you down.
    You're still struggling to understand the concept of Taking Back Control and Parliamentary Sovereignty aren't you?

    It's not possible for Boris to commit to future UK plans because the future hasn't happened yet. He may have plans, but if so he has to take them through Parliament first. Even if he does no PM can bind his successor, if we don't like his plans then Starmer may have different ones. Or Sunak might. Or whoever in the future is PM.

    The whole point of Brexit is not going from one plan to a fixed other. It's going from EU control to Parliamentary Sovereignty. What Parliament approves in the future is up to Parliament ... not Boris.
    Why then do Tories on here talk absolute bollox about Scottish referendum and claim a throwaway remark is bound in stone for 40 years. Tories on here hav emore faces than the town clock.
    Had enough of experts and f#ck business are a couple of throwaway remarks which are frequently referred to as still relevant in a way which suggests the views expressed are set in stone.

    I actually agree that even if the referendum comment has been a cast iron commitment if enough people wish to have one anyway that takes precedence, but everyone is a cherry picker on past comments and future plans.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,659

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.

    Couldn't that apply to both candidates though?

    It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
    Trump scored the highest ever on the cognitive test. Doctors haven't seen anyone do as well as Trump. They were shocked.

    Biden, conversely, has early stage alzheimers and can't even read a teleprompter.
    Well of course Trump has been bigging himself up, but plenty of people have said he's going senile recently.
    Trump was given a cognitive test because it was suspected that he had had a mini-stroke, here's what it looked like.
    Cn you tell which animal is the elephant and can you count backwards fro 100 in 7s? Of course you can.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12175283/trump-montreal-cognitive-assessment-test-aced/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,968
    Carnyx said:

    FPT

    Saw the Sky News interview with Richard Leonard: tragic.

    ‘Time is up for Richard Leonard with Labour on a road to nowhere‘
    - It was a dizzying cocktail of defiance and delusion

    It’s not just Labour colleagues who believe Leonard must go. Senior members of the Conservative party dearly want to see him replaced, even – no, especially – if that means Labour becomes a strong political force once more.

    As First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to demand from the UK Government the right to hold a second independence referendum, Conservative strategists believe the Union will only survive if there’s a strong Scottish Labour Party playing its part in the battle.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/time-richard-leonard-labour-road-nowhere-euan-mccolm-2962768



    The Tories are realising they once again need their SLAB penal battalions to skin for the Unionist tulchan coos and send over No Man's Land, as in 2014, if that isn't mixing metaphors too much.
    You can never mix metaphors too much in my book
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,659

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.

    Couldn't that apply to both candidates though?

    It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
    Trump scored the highest ever on the cognitive test. Doctors haven't seen anyone do as well as Trump. They were shocked.

    Biden, conversely, has early stage alzheimers and can't even read a teleprompter.
    Well of course Trump has been bigging himself up, but plenty of people have said he's going senile recently.
    Trump was given a cognitive test because it was suspected that he had had a mini-stroke, here's what it looked like.
    Cn you tell which animal is the elephant and can you count backwards fro 100 in 7s? Of course you can.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12175283/trump-montreal-cognitive-assessment-test-aced/
    Just looked again - rhino not elephant.
  • FPT

    Scott_xP said:
    Why are Tories suddenly so interested in State Aid? Seems mighty suspicious to me. The party hasn't given a f about it since Heseltine was active.
    Because "state aid" is a misnomer.

    Under the EU's proposal actions we took to make ourselves more competitive, including changes of law and tax cuts, could be counted as "state aid". They're not actually arguing about state aid as it normally is considered to mean - the UK has already offered rules against that which are standard in normal FTAs eg CETA, but the EU is wanting to go miles above and beyond that.
    Trouble is that none of us know what the UK plans, because they're not saying. Freedom to do whatever is right for us is a slogan, not a plan.

    The James Forsythe piece on Friday - that the government wants the freedom to subsidise a tech sector into being - probably won't work, but is as plausible a steer on the government's thinking as any.

    Can't imagine libertarians liking it. Still, we'll be here for you when Boris let's you down.
    You're still struggling to understand the concept of Taking Back Control and Parliamentary Sovereignty aren't you?

    It's not possible for Boris to commit to future UK plans because the future hasn't happened yet. He may have plans, but if so he has to take them through Parliament first. Even if he does no PM can bind his successor, if we don't like his plans then Starmer may have different ones. Or Sunak might. Or whoever in the future is PM.

    The whole point of Brexit is not going from one plan to a fixed other. It's going from EU control to Parliamentary Sovereignty. What Parliament approves in the future is up to Parliament ... not Boris.
    Why then do Tories on here talk absolute bollox about Scottish referendum and claim a throwaway remark is bound in stone for 40 years. Tories on here hav emore faces than the town clock.
    You know my position on this.

    If the SNP win a majority pledging a referendum they have a moral mandate to hold a referendum.

    The SNP don't have the legal right to do so (probably) since constitutional matters are a reserved matter and Scotland isn't a sovereign country. But it would be a humongous own goal by unionists to force the issue on this, if they do that it would be a gift to the SNP who would be locked on major favourites to win the next inevitable referendum then.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 348

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Biden has been W Bush'd.

    The Gore campaign lowered expectations so far that even when Bush started debating himself and demanding to be let finish despite no one interrupting him people thought he was statesmen like and exceeded expectations.

    Couldn't that apply to both candidates though?

    It's not as if Trump has exactly been painted as a great statesman.
    Trump scored the highest ever on the cognitive test. Doctors haven't seen anyone do as well as Trump. They were shocked.

    Biden, conversely, has early stage alzheimers and can't even read a teleprompter.
    Well of course Trump has been bigging himself up, but plenty of people have said he's going senile recently.
    Trump was given a cognitive test because it was suspected that he had had a mini-stroke, here's what it looked like.
    Cn you tell which animal is the elephant and can you count backwards fro 100 in 7s? Of course you can.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12175283/trump-montreal-cognitive-assessment-test-aced/
    Well it's not exactly difficult, but getting 100% probably shows a lack of a stroke or dementia.

    How did Biden do on the test?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,389
    Donald Trump slams Joe Biden as 'not competent' and claims Democratic rival 'can't put two sentences together'

    Low bars and all that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,389
    Biden's had practice against his Democrat contemporaries this year too.
  • Conterfactual time. Suppose Obama hadn't run or won the nomination in 2008 or 2012 or indeed in 2016, and instead got the nomination this year. How might the polls have turned out?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    edited September 6

    Biden should be heavy favourite for this surely simply on the fact that there are far more Biden supporters than Trump supporters in the polls already. Most people tend to say their own man or woman won any debate and unless the sample is wildly unrepresentative then even a drawn debate should surely be polled as a Biden victory?

    Good point but it's not an infallible rule. For example, PMQs last week, Johnson was so bad that every one of his supporters on here with just a single exception pronounced him the loser. And even the exception, a poster who is close to besotted by the man, could not call it better than a draw.
  • Do US politicians and their supporters try expectations management normally?

    Before local elections etc here normally all parties here always seem to play down their chances and do expectations management. But in the USA for Trump supporters especially it's all about how he is going to win bigly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    Often in recent years the challenger wins the first debate against the incumbent President eg Romney, Kerry and Mondale all won their first debates so that should favour Biden.

    However Trump lost all 3 debates against Hillary in 2016 and his supporters still voted for him
  • kinabalu said:

    Biden should be heavy favourite for this surely simply on the fact that there are far more Biden supporters than Trump supporters in the polls already. Most people tend to say their own man or woman won any debate and unless the sample is wildly unrepresentative then even a drawn debate should surely be polled as a Biden victory?

    Good point but it's not an infallible rule. For example, PMQs last week, Johnson was so bad that every one of his supporters on here with just a single exception pronounced him the loser. And even the exception, a poster who is close to besotted by the man, could not call it better than a draw.
    I didn't call it a draw, I said it was tired and would not change anyone's minds.

    I may not have called that right. But I have yet to see anyone who wasn't a critic of Boris already harping on about it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,817

    Do US politicians and their supporters try expectations management normally?

    Before local elections etc here normally all parties here always seem to play down their chances and do expectations management. But in the USA for Trump supporters especially it's all about how he is going to win bigly.

    It’s probably a culture difference in that the Americans won’t vote for a loser although the comparison is wrong, parties under predict local election results to not look stupid if it happens whilst in a head to head election you either win or lose.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,389
    edited September 6

    Conterfactual time. Suppose Obama hadn't run or won the nomination in 2008 or 2012 or indeed in 2016, and instead got the nomination this year. How might the polls have turned out?

    I think 2008 Obama would be around 53% national average

    Heading to something like this in November. https://www.270towin.com/maps/jerl6
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,012
    edited September 6
    An Italian car leading the Italian GP...
  • HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all

    So Trump is down and his opponent is up and claiming third party votes too.

    If there's a direct swing from Trump to his opponent plus his opponent carries third party votes then Trump is going to struggle.

    Look at Pennsylvania. Trump won by just 0.71%. Plus nearly 5% voted third party.

    If your logic is right then Trump would struggle to be competitive in PA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all

    So Trump is down and his opponent is up and claiming third party votes too.

    If there's a direct swing from Trump to his opponent plus his opponent carries third party votes then Trump is going to struggle.

    Look at Pennsylvania. Trump won by just 0.71%. Plus nearly 5% voted third party.

    If your logic is right then Trump would struggle to be competitive in PA.
    If there is still underestimation of the Trump vote by 1 to 2% as there was in 2016 and if Emerson is correct and Trump is picking up slightly more Hillary voters than Biden is picking up Trump voters then even if Biden does pick up third party votes in the MidWest it may not be enough for him to win Michigan, Wisconsin or even Pennsylvania given the third party vote was below the national average in the MidWest in 2016
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,389
    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    Picking up Johnson's votes flips WI, MI and PA. Clinton was only 10,704 votes behind in MI; 22748 in WI and 44,292 in PA. Probably Nebraska 2nd district too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    Picking up Johnson's votes flips WI, MI and PA. Clinton was only 10,704 votes behind in MI; 22748 in WI and 44,292 in PA. Probably Nebraska 2nd district too.
    If the Trump voteshare is the same as last time yes but as I said Emerson has a slight swing to Trump from 2016 if you exclude the swing from Johnson to Biden. Plus even if Biden picks up over half the Johnson vote some of the Johnson vote is still likely to stick with Jorgensen or go to Trump.

    Biden should pick up Nebraska 02 yes as well as Arizona though as I think Johnson was slightly above his national average in the plain states and well above his national average in the West but below his national average in the rustbelt
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980

    kinabalu said:

    Biden should be heavy favourite for this surely simply on the fact that there are far more Biden supporters than Trump supporters in the polls already. Most people tend to say their own man or woman won any debate and unless the sample is wildly unrepresentative then even a drawn debate should surely be polled as a Biden victory?

    Good point but it's not an infallible rule. For example, PMQs last week, Johnson was so bad that every one of his supporters on here with just a single exception pronounced him the loser. And even the exception, a poster who is close to besotted by the man, could not call it better than a draw.
    I didn't call it a draw, I said it was tired and would not change anyone's minds.

    I may not have called that right. But I have yet to see anyone who wasn't a critic of Boris already harping on about it.
    I'd say that every single PB moderate called that as a disaster for the dreadful Johnson.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,389
    It really is Nicola Sturgeon and the seven dwarves in Scottish politics right now. Leonard to be replaced with another irrelevance most likely.
  • tlg86 said:

    An Italian car leading the Italian GP...

    As long as it is not a red one, @Morris_Dancer will land his bet.
  • kle4 said:

    People who dont watch the debate will be winners.

    sage advice.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,355
    What a race. Sad that Sainz couldn't get the win. He's surely regretting the move to Ferrari. McLaren are a team on the up and should be winning races next season with Mercedes power. Ferrari are still going to be stuck.
  • tlg86 said:
    As the Mail suggests, this is likely in response to Boris attacking Starmer's record after being handed his arse at PMQs. Again.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54049149

    We must assume there is a likely chance England is next
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,012

    tlg86 said:
    As the Mail suggests, this is likely in response to Boris attacking Starmer's record after being handed his arse at PMQs. Again.
    Does Starmer really want to invite interviewers to question other decisions he made whilst he was DPP?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,012
    MaxPB said:

    What a race. Sad that Sainz couldn't get the win. He's surely regretting the move to Ferrari. McLaren are a team on the up and should be winning races next season with Mercedes power. Ferrari are still going to be stuck.

    Telling that the team were telling Sainz to take second place for the constructors prize money. They're in a complete mess financially.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    edited September 6
    Pulpstar said:

    It really is Nicola Sturgeon and the seven dwarves in Scottish politics right now. Leonard to be replaced with another irrelevance most likely.
    I wonder if the decline of Labour and Tory in Scotland is like that of the Windies in cricket. Nobody of talent wants to get into them anymore. They choose other things instead. Which then feeds the decline until it becomes terminal. But some good signs recently for the Windies so if I'm right there is still hope for these grand old political parties north of the border.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,746
    Schools are safe and everybody must start commuting again...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It really is Nicola Sturgeon and the seven dwarves in Scottish politics right now. Leonard to be replaced with another irrelevance most likely.
    I wonder if the decline of Labour and Tory in Scotland is like that of the Windies in cricket. Nobody of talent wants to get into them anymore. They choose other things instead. Which then feeds the decline until it becomes terminal. But some good signs recently for the Windies so if I'm right there is still hope for these grand old political parties north of the border.
    I would say Ruth Davidson is pretty talented, after all in 2017 she got the Tories in Scotland to their highest voteshare north of the border since 1979 and she is now back as interim Scottish Tory leader
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It really is Nicola Sturgeon and the seven dwarves in Scottish politics right now. Leonard to be replaced with another irrelevance most likely.
    I wonder if the decline of Labour and Tory in Scotland is like that of the Windies in cricket. Nobody of talent wants to get into them anymore. They choose other things instead. Which then feeds the decline until it becomes terminal. But some good signs recently for the Windies so if I'm right there is still hope for these grand old political parties north of the border.
    I would say Ruth Davidson is pretty talented, after all in 2017 she got the Tories in Scotland to their highest voteshare north of the border since 1979 and she is now back as interim Scottish Tory leader
    Yes but that rather makes the point. She dwarfed the party and even now they can't replace her.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,390
    edited September 6
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:
    As the Mail suggests, this is likely in response to Boris attacking Starmer's record after being handed his arse at PMQs. Again.
    Does Starmer really want to invite interviewers to question other decisions he made whilst he was DPP?
    I've no idea what Starmer wants but as I said, the Mail story, if you read all of it, looks like a preemptive move to warn Boris off going down this route.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,387
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:
    As the Mail suggests, this is likely in response to Boris attacking Starmer's record after being handed his arse at PMQs. Again.
    Does Starmer really want to invite interviewers to question other decisions he made whilst he was DPP?
    Does Johnson want Starmer to raise in Parliament his three sackings for lying and his chat about getting a journalist beaten up? Boris’s CV vs Starmer’s - hmmm?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It really is Nicola Sturgeon and the seven dwarves in Scottish politics right now. Leonard to be replaced with another irrelevance most likely.
    I wonder if the decline of Labour and Tory in Scotland is like that of the Windies in cricket. Nobody of talent wants to get into them anymore. They choose other things instead. Which then feeds the decline until it becomes terminal. But some good signs recently for the Windies so if I'm right there is still hope for these grand old political parties north of the border.
    I would say Ruth Davidson is pretty talented, after all in 2017 she got the Tories in Scotland to their highest voteshare north of the border since 1979 and she is now back as interim Scottish Tory leader
    Yes but that rather makes the point. She dwarfed the party and even now they can't replace her.
    She will stay as Scottish Conservative leader at Holyrood until election day next year, Ross will only take over after, assuming he wins his MSP seat on polling day
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    Who cares it is the Tory UK PM who will decide
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,012
    edited September 6
    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:
    As the Mail suggests, this is likely in response to Boris attacking Starmer's record after being handed his arse at PMQs. Again.
    Does Starmer really want to invite interviewers to question other decisions he made whilst he was DPP?
    Does Johnson want Starmer to raise in Parliament his three sackings for lying and his chat about getting a journalist beaten up? Boris’s CV vs Starmer’s - hmmm?
    The point I'm making is that I don't see much upside to Starmer having been DPP. He got some terrorists locked up - so what? Why didn't he prosecute Jimmy Savile?

    https://fullfact.org/online/keir-starmer-prosecute-jimmy-savile/

    A spokesperson for the Labour party said they could not comment on individual cases, but insisted Mr Starmer “put victims at the heart of the judicial system” during his time as DPP, including improving support for victims of sexual and domestic violence and introducing a right for victims to challenge CPS decisions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,428
    That is not at all what she said:

    https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/indyref2-kezia-dugdale-snp-majority-18884296

    Yet more fake news from the SNP’s nuttier supporters. They aren’t covering themselves in glory.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,049
    HYUFD said:

    Who cares it is the Tory UK PM who will decide
    Is there a polling threshold above which that line would become untenable? What if 70% support independence?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    UK Cases - scalded to 100k population

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595

    HYUFD said:

    Who cares it is the Tory UK PM who will decide
    Is there a polling threshold above which that line would become untenable? What if 70% support independence?
    Very unlikely given 38% of Scots voted Leave but no 2014 was 'once in a generation' and from a Tory perspective that must be respected regardless of what the polling shows
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    UK Cases - absolute

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    UK cases summary -

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    UK all setting 28 day cut off deaths -

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    UK hospital data -

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    And as a reminder for the "OMG cases spiralling" brigade -

    image
    image
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    Pulpstar said:

    Conterfactual time. Suppose Obama hadn't run or won the nomination in 2008 or 2012 or indeed in 2016, and instead got the nomination this year. How might the polls have turned out?

    I think 2008 Obama would be around 53% national average

    Heading to something like this in November. https://www.270towin.com/maps/jerl6
    You missed North Carolina.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 6,746
    Scott_xP said:

    Schools are safe and everybody must start commuting again...

    Ah, unable to read the ONS website. Another one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    That is selective quoting, missing off the end of Hollinroke's tweet: "to hungry wild animals."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,971
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: entertaining race. Like Ricciardo last weekend, Sainz must've been wishing for more laps.

    Rambly stuff here: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/09/italy-post-race-analysis-2020.html

    Anyway, must be off again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all

    So Trump is down and his opponent is up and claiming third party votes too.

    If there's a direct swing from Trump to his opponent plus his opponent carries third party votes then Trump is going to struggle.

    Look at Pennsylvania. Trump won by just 0.71%. Plus nearly 5% voted third party.

    If your logic is right then Trump would struggle to be competitive in PA.
    If there is still underestimation of the Trump vote by 1 to 2% as there was in 2016 and if Emerson is correct and Trump is picking up slightly more Hillary voters than Biden is picking up Trump voters then even if Biden does pick up third party votes in the MidWest it may not be enough for him to win Michigan, Wisconsin or even Pennsylvania given the third party vote was below the national average in the MidWest in 2016
    Yesterday, you accused me of setting a bar at 1.1%.
    Today, you have turned 1.1% into "1 to 2%".

    If the underestimation is 2%, then that is almost twice the underestimation of 2016.
  • Has anybody told BBC commentators this isnt a test match? Likes of Tuffnell is clueless about T20 strategy & they are making a supposedly exciting fast paced format against the two biggest rivals absolute borefest.
  • Not sure government letting everybody go on foreign holidays with no airport testing on the return was a wise idea.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    If Biden were to pick up the third party vote from 2016, then he would win:

    Arizona, Florida, Michigan, NE-2, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah (!) and Wisconsin.

    Which would probably be enough for him to claim victory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all

    So Trump is down and his opponent is up and claiming third party votes too.

    If there's a direct swing from Trump to his opponent plus his opponent carries third party votes then Trump is going to struggle.

    Look at Pennsylvania. Trump won by just 0.71%. Plus nearly 5% voted third party.

    If your logic is right then Trump would struggle to be competitive in PA.
    If there is still underestimation of the Trump vote by 1 to 2% as there was in 2016 and if Emerson is correct and Trump is picking up slightly more Hillary voters than Biden is picking up Trump voters then even if Biden does pick up third party votes in the MidWest it may not be enough for him to win Michigan, Wisconsin or even Pennsylvania given the third party vote was below the national average in the MidWest in 2016
    Yesterday, you accused me of setting a bar at 1.1%.
    Today, you have turned 1.1% into "1 to 2%".

    If the underestimation is 2%, then that is almost twice the underestimation of 2016.
    Not in Michigan where the RCP underestimation was 3.7%, not in Pennsylvania where the RCP underestimation was 2.6%, not in Wisconsin where the RCP underestimation was a huge 7.2%.

    Hillary won the popular vote anyway but it was those 3 states which won Trump the EC and the presidency
  • This has the potential to bugger up the T20 blast.

    Gloucestershire's Bob Willis Trophy game with Northamptonshire has been abandoned after a Northants squad member tested positive for Covid-19.

    The player was not part of the group that travelled to Bristol but had been in contact with other squad members within 48 hours of developing symptoms.

    A statement issued by both clubs said the decision had been taken "in the interests of player welfare".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/54044688
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    If Biden were to pick up the third party vote from 2016, then he would win:

    Arizona, Florida, Michigan, NE-2, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah (!) and Wisconsin.

    Which would probably be enough for him to claim victory.
    Only if there was not a Hillary to Trump swing which Emerson suggests there will be and not all the 2016 third party vote is likely to go to Biden either, some will stay third party or go to Trump
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,387
    edited September 6
    tlg86 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:
    As the Mail suggests, this is likely in response to Boris attacking Starmer's record after being handed his arse at PMQs. Again.
    Does Starmer really want to invite interviewers to question other decisions he made whilst he was DPP?
    Does Johnson want Starmer to raise in Parliament his three sackings for lying and his chat about getting a journalist beaten up? Boris’s CV vs Starmer’s - hmmm?
    The point I'm making is that I don't see much upside to Starmer having been DPP. He got some terrorists locked up - so what? Why didn't he prosecute Jimmy Savile?

    https://fullfact.org/online/keir-starmer-prosecute-jimmy-savile/

    A spokesperson for the Labour party said they could not comment on individual cases, but insisted Mr Starmer “put victims at the heart of the judicial system” during his time as DPP, including improving support for victims of sexual and domestic violence and introducing a right for victims to challenge CPS decisions.
    The question to be asked is why the police did not investigate Jimmy Savile. It was their failure to do so which meant that there was no evidence on which a prosecution could be brought. As you know, it is not the DPP who determines what investigations are started.

    And then there might be awkward questions about which political party knighted Saville and which one gave him a formal role on the Board of Broadmoor Hospital.

    The Tories would be ill-advised to go down this route. Starmer may not have been the most brilliant DPP there has ever been but he tried to do his job in compliance with the law. Whereas Johnson’s approach to compliance with the law is, well, a bit more complicated.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all

    So Trump is down and his opponent is up and claiming third party votes too.

    If there's a direct swing from Trump to his opponent plus his opponent carries third party votes then Trump is going to struggle.

    Look at Pennsylvania. Trump won by just 0.71%. Plus nearly 5% voted third party.

    If your logic is right then Trump would struggle to be competitive in PA.
    If there is still underestimation of the Trump vote by 1 to 2% as there was in 2016 and if Emerson is correct and Trump is picking up slightly more Hillary voters than Biden is picking up Trump voters then even if Biden does pick up third party votes in the MidWest it may not be enough for him to win Michigan, Wisconsin or even Pennsylvania given the third party vote was below the national average in the MidWest in 2016
    Yesterday, you accused me of setting a bar at 1.1%.
    Today, you have turned 1.1% into "1 to 2%".

    If the underestimation is 2%, then that is almost twice the underestimation of 2016.
    Not in Michigan where the RCP underestimation was 3.3%, not in Pennsylvania where where the RCP underestimation was 2.8%, not in Wisconsin where the RCP underestimation was a huge 7.2%.

    Hillary won the popular vote anyway but it was those 3 states which won Trump the EC and the presidency
    We don't disagree. Although I can't help find it amusing that at the same time you slam 2016's state level polls for being inaccurate (which they were), you insist on relying on them rather than the very much more accurate national polls for 2020.

    You posted a Nate Silver tweet yesterday: once Biden gets to a 3.5% national lead, then his chance of winning the electoral college moves to around 75%. On current polls, even if the polling error is twice 2016's (i.e. 2.2%), then Biden is extremely unlikely to lose.

    To win, and it is far from impossible this happens, President Trump needs to see either:

    (a) The polls moving in his favour. (Which they're not. Biden is back up to 50.5% in the 538 poll of polls.)

    or

    (b) A polling error of not twice 2016 (which would be quite significant in itself), but maybe four times (which would extraordinary, and which hasn't happened in living memory).

    If the election were held tomorrow, I would reckon it would be an 88-92% chance of a Biden victory. But it's not. It's held in 58 days time. And Trump needs to see Biden's share start to drop, because right now, it's looking dangerously steady.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,620
    edited September 6
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Who cares it is the Tory UK PM who will decide
    Is there a polling threshold above which that line would become untenable? What if 70% support independence?
    Very unlikely given 38% of Scots voted Leave but no 2014 was 'once in a generation' and from a Tory perspective that must be respected regardless of what the polling shows
    I haven't posted to much recently but your arrogant nonsense still continues to feature on domestic politics

    The demand for a second referendum post a successful SNP ballot next spring will make it impossible to avoid and you really do not understand that the best way to win for the union is to argue in favour in a properly agreed vote

    I expect that sometime next year Starmer will back the call and I also expect some conservatives to support a vote

    You also assume Boris will be in place next year and on his present performances there is a big question mark over that
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    HYUFD said:

    On the face of it this New Mexico poll should be good news for Biden, a 15% lead.

    However delve deeper and there are some concerns for him, first the Trump share of 39% is almost identical to the 40% he got in New Mexico in 2016.

    Second while Biden's share is up from the 48% Hillary got to 54% almost all of that comes from the Gary Johnson vote, Johnson got 9% in New Mexico in 2016, the highest share he got in any state as the leading third party candidate.

    If Biden's popular vote lead is higher than Hillary's therefore that suggests as Emerson has it is mainly coming from Johnson who got most of his votes in the West where Hillary won most states anyway in 2016. Now Biden could pick up Arizona on that where Johnson got 4% last time and as some polling suggests but no other state is likely for him to pick up there.

    However, in the Midwest and Florida Johnson generally polled below his national average, which would suggest in those key swing states there is barely any swing from 2016 at all, as Trafalgar Group confirms in Michigan and Wisconsin

    If Biden were to pick up the third party vote from 2016, then he would win:

    Arizona, Florida, Michigan, NE-2, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah (!) and Wisconsin.

    Which would probably be enough for him to claim victory.
    Only if there was not a Hillary to Trump swing which Emerson suggests there will be and not all the 2016 third party vote is likely to go to Biden either, some will stay third party or go to Trump
    Obviously not all the third party vote is going to go to Biden. I was just pointing out the utter absurdity of your comment claiming that the New Mexico poll, which showed Trump steady and Biden picking up third parties, was bad for Biden.
  • Proper cricket analysis...



    While over on BBC, they are talking about home schooling during lockdown.
This discussion has been closed.