Third, Trump is actually retaining more of his 2016 vote than Biden. 91% of Trump 2016 voters are still voting for him compared to just 7% who have switched to Biden however only 88% of Clinton voters are voting for Biden compared to 9% who have switched to Trump. Biden is only ahead as third party voters from 2016 are breaking for him over Trump 59% to 18% but no reason they may not go back to third party or stay home. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
I think it's common to see a pattern like this because a common voter lifecycle goes
be born -> vote left -> vote right -> die
So just to stay level right-wing politicians need to be continually converting middle-aged voters from the left to make up for the ones who have shuffled off this mortal coil.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
Mayor Pete's got all the right lines but he just looks that little bit too smug to carry it off...
At least he’s not calling Trump supporters Deplorables, or racists.
"You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. (Laughter/applause) Right? (Laughter/applause) They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it. And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people – now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks – they are irredeemable, but thankfully, they are not America."
Bad politics. But 100% stone cold truth.
Idly musing - if Hillary had cut that paragraph, would she be President now?
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
Ed Miliband was the left candidate in 2010 in the final round against his centrist brother David
He was. But he was soft left - aka "moderate" - and the party did not move very far to the left under him. Labour's offering to the public in 2015 was centre left rather than radical.
It was still centre left not moderate, if it had been moderate David Miliband would have been elected leader, that is the point.
After Blair won the 1994 Labour leadership it did not elect the moderate candidate in the Leadership again until 2020 and Starmer just as when Major went the Tories did not elect the moderate candidate again in its leadership elections until Cameron
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
That's like saying that Corbyn had got to the right last year.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
What do you think they're doing wrong specifically? Seems to me like they've got a candidate who rightly or wrongly the voters like and trust, they've put together nicely balanced platform that gives the left something without scaring off the moderates, and they're getting nice news cycles on issues that some group of persuadable voters care about. What should they be doing differently?
These days, i don't think the term "moderate" should be thought of in the context of a simple policy prospectus. Increasingly the difference between "moderate" and the rest can be seen as the extent to which they are prepared to operate within existing constitutional and democratic norms.
And, at a basic level, they are prepared to engage with their political opponents as people who are broadly engaged by the overarching motivations and objectives, just who have differing political philosophies over the best ways to achieve that. And conduct political debate and argument on that basis, including accepting where their own instinctive views may need refining when meeting with reality.
I think 2019 was more anti-Semitism and being unwholesomely careful about jumping to conclusions about who Putin did and didn't poison, they both dropped mainly after 2017.
I suspect it was because in 2019 the attacks were made under the radar on social media. If Corbyn did not know he was being attacked for meeting the IRA, he could not defend himself, as he had previously done, by claiming he was promoting peace, to take one example.
In 2017 the IRA stuff seemed like history. Skripal changed things. It highlighted Corbyn’s unwillingness to stand up against this country’s enemies. The IRA stuff resonated then in a way it had not before. It became part of a pattern.
Yes, that is true but (or and, if you prefer) most it was below the radar. CCHQ's MO was, I suspect, to make small-scale social media tests to see what attacks resonated with which groups of voters, then go in hard and late with microtargeted attacks. It is consistent with what we know from Cummings and the Brexit campaign, though we might need to wait for the memoirs for full details.
Yes - I’m sure that was part of it. Having listened to that Corbynism podcast I was struck by how many Labour insiders recognised at the time how disastrous Corbyn’s response to Skripal was. In one programme on Scotland a Labour canvasser during the 2019 election found one of the voters berating her over the IRA stuff quite unprompted and the neighbours joining in. It was in a constituency with strong military connections. So the micro-targeting will have had an effect in a way that it didn’t in 2017 because of Corbyn’s strategic mistake over Russia.
Finished the podcast. Yes, Salisbury was damaging for Corbyn. I thought so at the time but probably didn't realize quite how much.
And I'm hoping this was the main electoral problem with Corbyn. That he was anti-west and thus not fit to be PM of the UK. Because I agree (although his opponent was even less fit to be PM) and also the problem is fixed now.
What I'm hoping is NOT the case is that the public rejected him because he and the party were perceived to be too socially liberal. Because if so, as far as I'm concerned, it's the public who are going to have to change, and that is no easy thing to bring about.
It depends I suppose on what you mean by “socially liberal”. I don’t regard Corbynism as socially liberal at all: his anti-racism was a joke as evidenced by the anti-semitism farrago, his attitude to freedom of the press was illiberal, his support for monsters such as Assad and Putin had nothing liberal about it.
If anything, his rejection by voters showed to me that there was an essential decency in many voters in rejecting the nastiness of Corbyn and his supporters.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
The one thing they have never faced up to is that there were legitimate reasons why Trump won. That Trump represent a big slice of America and that slice has grievances that need to be listened to as much if not more than BLM,
Instead, they have doubled down. And they are sustained by an unregulated polling industry that has raving partisans for clients.
And that's why I think they are going to lose bigger this time around
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
What does that even mean?
Trump murders a baby on stage - brilliant politics, it has annoyed all the right people?
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Why the hell couldn’t the US have had candidates like these to choose from instead of the senile old tossers they now have?
Joe Biden is older than is ideal for a candidate for US president but he is not senile. He's 77 and acts like it.
Would we be diagnosing any other elderly man who fails to look and speak like somebody much younger as senile? I don't think so.
Absolutely people would, without question.
If the candidates are very old compared to the average there will be comments about their wits, if they are younger there will be comments their experience or maturity even if they are in the prime of life.
Some people would, yes. But most of us wouldn't.
And most of us don't suggest Biden has dementia, just that he is indeed old. So what's the problem? Most don't, some do.
Cyclefree did suggest it. I duly objected and she has gracefully retracted because she didn't mean it.
Is that Ok with you?
Indeed. I was not intending to make any statement about the candidates medical condition, simply that they are very old and not particularly sharp.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
It wasn't even moderate to a moderate, hence the moderate Cameron won a majority against the leftwing Ed Miliband platform
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Presumably, then, the reason you think he has a chance is that you like him? What is it about him that appeals to you?
I like him because he annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically.
And this morning is a case in point.
And for what? when you look at what Trump does, as opposed to says, is it really that different to other presidents? I don;t think so,.
All of which makes it rather funny.
He tweets and watches TV.
Ok, so it's often at the same time - but it's a rather low bar.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
The one thing they have never faced up to is that there were legitimate reasons why Trump won. That Trump represent a big slice of America and that slice has grievances that need to be listened to as much if not more than BLM,
Instead, they have doubled down. And they are sustained by an unregulated polling industry that has raving partisans for clients.
And that's why I think they are going to lose bigger this time around
Trump won because most of the people who voted for Romney voted for him and a chunk of the people who voted for Obama stayed home in the rust belt.
This desperate desire to see Trump as a savant when he got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin yet still won would be damaging to your bank balance if you were betting on this election.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
And Black employment under Trump was at a record high until covid hit. many blue collar workers (which unfortunately is where black people currently are probably over-represented) did particularly, well.
But those are facts. Numbers. Stuff ravers like yourself prefer to ignore.
But its why Trump will carry a much bigger slice of the black vote than other republican presidents.
And Its one reason why he will crush Biden. Who in 47 years has done nothing for black people.
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Presumably, then, the reason you think he has a chance is that you like him? What is it about him that appeals to you?
I like him because he annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically.
And this morning is a case in point.
And for what? when you look at what Trump does, as opposed to says, is it really that different to other presidents? I don;t think so,.
All of which makes it rather funny.
"My enemy's enemy is my friend" only works if the contest is a zero sum game. Government and politics generally is not, or shouldn't be (indeed one of Trump's big problems is that he sees trade itself as a zero sum game with winners and losers). Just because a political opponent of mine is against cannibalism doesn't mean that I would start thinking it might be a good idea. Having someone who "annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically" is not a good enough reason to support them unless you really support them, what they stand for and do to. This was the mistake that Jeremy Corbyn appeared to make with the Salisbury poisonings: because the government were against it then how could he condemns it as well?
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
It was said 7 or 10 years ago about the USA. Voter suppression and gerrymandering have been endemic in the USA for its entire history.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
I didn’t actually say it was I just pointed out that you can go from x to y quite rapidly. The intention being to warn people not to fall into the complacency trap.
But we aren't at the same X as Spain. Spain by the end of July had already lost control of the virus again which is why their positivity rate was back up above 6% again. If your positivity rate in tests is 6% then there are far more people actually positive going untested. The UK's positivity rate is one tenth of that.
Fine
I know you probably don't mean it that way but you sound disappointed that we aren't about to spiral out of control like Spain.
Number of positive cases is not the most important metric. Number of positive cases combined with the positivity rate is far more interesting. If the positivity rate starts to go back up again, or if the ONS survey starts to go up then it means we are losing control again as we aren't catching the cases and stopping them. That is what happened to Spain by the end of July already. Keep an eye on that.
My children live in the UK the restrictions and risks involved in travel mean I can’t safely see them or my grandchildren so I want this over. I’m on a two week treatment cycle so they have to come here but that doesn’t remove the risks.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
And Black employment under Trump was at a record high until covid hit. many blue collar workers (which unfortunately is where black people currently are probably over-represented) did particularly, well.
But those are facts. Numbers. Stuff ravers like yourself prefer to ignore.
But its why Trump will carry a much bigger slice of the black vote than other republican presidents.
And Its one reason why he will crush Biden. Who in 47 years has done nothing for black people.
UK Coronavirus cases (and indeed elsewhere) - are there any figures anywhere that record how many of the positive (and indeed negative) tests being reported are actually unique cases? As opposed to people being tested multiple times?
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
Hubris can be brutal.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if the re-opening of schools does not lead to lots of new outbreaks. I still think they need to be reopened though.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
Hubris can be brutal.
If you do not mind me asking, as a Doctor Foxy, do you agree with the idea that given the positivity rate of Spain was over 6% that Spain would have been missing a lot more of its asymptomatc cases and allowing them to spread than the UK is at 0.6%?
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
And Black employment under Trump was at a record high until covid hit. many blue collar workers (which unfortunately is where black people currently are probably over-represented) did particularly, well.
But those are facts. Numbers. Stuff ravers like yourself prefer to ignore.
But its why Trump will carry a much bigger slice of the black vote than other republican presidents.
And Its one reason why he will crush Biden. Who in 47 years has done nothing for black people.
Oh dear, Guardian readers getting their pens out to write to Midwestern oiks again, did not work out too well in 2004 when they asked them to vote for Kerry. If Biden has any sense he will pay them not to
Ok, last time, I get it. Trump is different and I can just about imagine that it looked to you that he might be worth a shot. But if you vote for him again having seen him in the job for 4 years, it will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are a dumb piece of shit who deserves to lose his job to China."
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
It was said 7 or 10 years ago about the USA. Voter suppression and gerrymandering have been endemic in the USA for its entire history.
Big difference in the UK is that electoral administration is largely independent of political parties, and no particular reason to think this will change significantly. There are obviously issues around media and political campaigning, and the extent that parties and money can manipulate these, but ultimately we can at least confidently state that votes counted in the UK are an accurate reflection of votes cast. And that there are few people who want to cast votes who are prevented from doing so.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
The one thing they have never faced up to is that there were legitimate reasons why Trump won. That Trump represent a big slice of America and that slice has grievances that need to be listened to as much if not more than BLM,
Instead, they have doubled down. And they are sustained by an unregulated polling industry that has raving partisans for clients.
And that's why I think they are going to lose bigger this time around
Trump won because most of the people who voted for Romney voted for him and a chunk of the people who voted for Obama stayed home in the rust belt.
This desperate desire to see Trump as a savant when he got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin yet still won would be damaging to your bank balance if you were betting on this election.
Romney got 2,115,256 votes in Michigan in 2012, Trump got 2,279,543 votes in Michigan in 2016.
Romney got 2,680,434 votes in Pennsylvania in 2012, Trump got 2,970,733 votes in Pennsylvania in 2016.
Romney got 2,661,437 votes in Ohio in 2012, Trump got 2,841,005 votes in Ohio in 2016.
Romney got 730,617 votes in Iowa in 2012, Trump got 800,983 votes in Iowa in 2016.
Romney got 4,163,447 votes in Florida in 2012, Trump got 4,617,886 votes in Florida in 2016.
In all those key swing states which voted for Obama in 2012, Trump got more votes than Romney did to win them in 2016
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
Thankfully Corbyn and his ilk were comprehensively rejected by the U.K. electorate last year.
Heard an interesting first-hand anecdote about when Biden visited the UK some 9 years ago, from a person in the room when he met the PM.
The meeting was 45 minutes long, with an agenda of multiple points to cover. Except, Biden sat down and proceeded to spend those 45 minutes just telling folksy stories. It led to thoughts of "Is he all there?".
The expectation from the person telling me the story was that if Biden gets elected, no way he serves a full term.
They still reckoned a Trump second term more likely. FWIW.
My immediate suspicion is whether the items on the agenda were things that the British government were more keen to make progress on than the American.
If that were the case then it was more diplomatic to talk the time out then to have to openly refuse to accede to British wishes.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
“...the snake of wokeness..” Still puzzling over what that might mean.
Let’s hope so, a good deal will be better than no deal.
Absolutely.
Good deal > No Deal > Bad deal.
People have differing ideas about what a "bad deal" is. What is astonishing is that many of the reported obstacles on the UK side to a deal are apparently things that are of marginal impact to the UK economy (fishing!), are contrary to mainstream Conservative thinking for 40 years (state aid), or resolve around obscure jurisdiction points which have more to do with politics that actual ability for UK businesses to trade freely and prosper in a global market.
O/T - is Extinction Rebellion increasingly the new "Stop the War" movement? Began with an issue which drew large measures of support from all across the political spectrum in the country and increasingly expanding on to a wide range of left wing campaigning issues?
Wait, I've got it. Trump did phone home to Melania to say he was devestated not to be able to go to the cemetery. The "Melania" that was with him was the body double!
These days, i don't think the term "moderate" should be thought of in the context of a simple policy prospectus. Increasingly the difference between "moderate" and the rest can be seen as the extent to which they are prepared to operate within existing constitutional and democratic norms.
And, at a basic level, they are prepared to engage with their political opponents as people who are broadly engaged by the overarching motivations and objectives, just who have differing political philosophies over the best ways to achieve that. And conduct political debate and argument on that basis, including accepting where their own instinctive views may need refining when meeting with reality.
People who are engaged in politics, who have thought about it often, will tend to be more confident in their conclusions, but it is necessary for a meaningful debate to leave open the possibility that one is mistaken.
There are some things I am more confident about than others, and I can often be dismissive when I am faced with an argument I have considered and dismissed for the umpteenth time, but I like to think that I retain this possibility, with one important caveat.
The exception is that there are some things that I now recognise that I simply believe, as a fundamental bedrock of my value system. Increasingly I think that many subsequent conclusions that I would once have thought were based on logic and fact, instead follow from my fundamental belief in the capacity of people to be reasonable to each other.
This is where you have to be impressed by what Trump managed to pull off, all over the world old people are sitting there muttering their prejudiced old person talk as some nurse or dutiful relative says "yes dear" and rolls their eyes. Trump has somehow wangled it so that he gets entire stadiums full of people cheering. Definitely something to aspire to for Life Goals.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
Hubris can be brutal.
If you do not mind me asking, as a Doctor Foxy, do you agree with the idea that given the positivity rate of Spain was over 6% that Spain would have been missing a lot more of its asymptomatc cases and allowing them to spread than the UK is at 0.6%?
Yes, probably so, though would depend on how well targetted testing was there. A lot here is of assymptomatic people without history of contact so would expect very low positives.
I see upward trends here though, and the returning sunseekers combined with schools and unis going back*, the overcrowded Rishi meal deal restaurants all look like a risk that we emulate France and Spain. Our Covid-19 inpatients in Leicester went up last week for the first time in months, for example.
*I entirely support education restarting, but clearly a risk, as seen in America.
Let’s hope so, a good deal will be better than no deal.
Absolutely.
Good deal > No Deal > Bad deal.
People have differing ideas about what a "bad deal" is. What is astonishing is that many of the reported obstacles on the UK side to a deal are apparently things that are of marginal impact to the UK economy (fishing!), are contrary to mainstream Conservative thinking for 40 years (state aid), or resolve around obscure jurisdiction points which have more to do with politics that actual ability for UK businesses to trade freely and prosper in a global market.
Its only astonishing if you don't understand why there is an issue. The UK is quite rightly prioritising sovereignty which is absolutely a mainstream Conservative thought. The UK has shown its ready to be reasonable and compromise, we're just waiting for the EU to get there too.
On fishing the EU is cherrypicking and demanding it continues to get the same fish stocks it got when the UK was a member state. Sorry, but no cherrypicking allowed. The UK has generously offered the EU 50% of the UK's fish stocks, with the UK fishermen to get the other 50%. This is the same sort of deal the EU already has agreed with other nations like Norway so there is no reason for them to say no.
On state aid the UK has reasonably said that we will agree LPF terms on standard terms globally used to prevent state aid being abused, like the terms the EU already agreed with Canada. The EU is cherrypicking and insisting that we continue to be subject to the EU's own state aid terms and subject to the EU's courts rather than having common international arbitration and terms. We are asking what the EU already agrees with other nations like Canada so there is no reason for them to say no.
As soon as the EU stops being unreasonable and stops trying to cherrypick the bits of EU membership they wish to continue, then we can move on.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
Hubris can be brutal.
If you do not mind me asking, as a Doctor Foxy, do you agree with the idea that given the positivity rate of Spain was over 6% that Spain would have been missing a lot more of its asymptomatc cases and allowing them to spread than the UK is at 0.6%?
Yes, probably so, though would depend on how well targetted testing was there. A lot here is of assymptomatic people without history of contact so would expect very low positives.
I see upward trends here though, and the returning sunseekers combined with schools and unis going back*, the overcrowded Rishi meal deal restaurants all look like a risk that we emulate France and Spain. Our Covid-19 inpatients in Leicester went up last week for the first time in months, for example.
*I entirely support education restarting, but clearly a risk, as seen in America.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
And Black employment under Trump was at a record high until covid hit. many blue collar workers (which unfortunately is where black people currently are probably over-represented) did particularly, well.
But those are facts. Numbers. Stuff ravers like yourself prefer to ignore.
But its why Trump will carry a much bigger slice of the black vote than other republican presidents.
And Its one reason why he will crush Biden. Who in 47 years has done nothing for black people.
The facts are damning. He inherited a strong economy and counter cyclically boosted it by abandoning all semblance of fiscal and monetary responsibility. The tax cuts favoured the wealthy. He has spent a fortune on the military despite claiming to not want to use it. Interest rates have been kept near zero for fear of growth stalling. The artificial boom has led to more jobs for all demographics - as booms do - but it was at the expense of the public finances and, Covid or no Covid, was doomed to be followed by a bust. He has been a shambles over Covid, calling it a hoax until forced to confront reality. He is now seeking to divide the country on racial lines, something no president has ever sank to before. To think that all of this represents some sort of triumph for competence and racial equality demonstrates, as if we needed any more evidence, that thinking is not your strong suit.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
Hubris can be brutal.
If you do not mind me asking, as a Doctor Foxy, do you agree with the idea that given the positivity rate of Spain was over 6% that Spain would have been missing a lot more of its asymptomatc cases and allowing them to spread than the UK is at 0.6%?
Yes, probably so, though would depend on how well targetted testing was there. A lot here is of assymptomatic people without history of contact so would expect very low positives.
I see upward trends here though, and the returning sunseekers combined with schools and unis going back*, the overcrowded Rishi meal deal restaurants all look like a risk that we emulate France and Spain. Our Covid-19 inpatients in Leicester went up last week for the first time in months, for example.
*I entirely support education restarting, but clearly a risk, as seen in America.
Thanks, that is quite reasonable and I agree with much of it.
Though I would say there's major differences between us and the USA. Including the fact that we treat students in this country as adults which the USA does not. The data seems to be (and both the UK and Scottish governments agree on this) that transmission in pubs is much less likely than transmission in house parties. British students are able to go to pubs because we recognise 18 year olds as adults. American students all drink at frat parties etc because pubs are strictly not permitted to allow in under 21s.
IDK, one of the great things about a design like this where there's a single panel that rotates in only 2 weeks is that if nothing's happening, it'll look like nothing's happening. With other methods, even if nothing is happening, they'll create the appearance of something out of statistical noise.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
And Black employment under Trump was at a record high until covid hit. many blue collar workers (which unfortunately is where black people currently are probably over-represented) did particularly, well.
But those are facts. Numbers. Stuff ravers like yourself prefer to ignore.
But its why Trump will carry a much bigger slice of the black vote than other republican presidents.
And Its one reason why he will crush Biden. Who in 47 years has done nothing for black people.
The facts are damning. He inherited a strong economy and counter cyclically boosted it by abandoning all semblance of fiscal and monetary responsibility.
I know right, how awful is that? Absolutely shameless and awful - and then when the recession hit it meant that we were totally exposed.
Thankfully he's been gone for over a decade, but then Trump came around and did the same thing in the USA. I'd not noticed the connection between Brown and Trump before but you're right to point it out.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
All the moderates on here thought it was moderate.
Let’s hope so, a good deal will be better than no deal.
Absolutely.
Good deal > No Deal > Bad deal.
No. Algaebraic error.
Good Deal > Bad Deal > No Deal.
And the 1st is not happening thus -
Bad Deal > No Deal.
And No Deal is not happening thus -
Bad Deal.
To be sold as Good Deal by Muscles.
If a bad deal was better than no deal it wouldn't be that bad of a deal. But no there is no reason to think a bad deal is better than no deal, only a zealot like yourself would think that.
My algebra is the algebra of a moderate. Zealots would say either that no deal is always best or always worst.
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Presumably, then, the reason you think he has a chance is that you like him? What is it about him that appeals to you?
I like him because he annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically.
And this morning is a case in point.
And for what? when you look at what Trump does, as opposed to says, is it really that different to other presidents? I don;t think so,.
All of which makes it rather funny.
"My enemy's enemy is my friend" only works if the contest is a zero sum game. Government and politics generally is not, or shouldn't be (indeed one of Trump's big problems is that he sees trade itself as a zero sum game with winners and losers). Just because a political opponent of mine is against cannibalism doesn't mean that I would start thinking it might be a good idea. Having someone who "annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically" is not a good enough reason to support them unless you really support them, what they stand for and do to. This was the mistake that Jeremy Corbyn appeared to make with the Salisbury poisonings: because the government were against it then how could he condemns it as well?
The same goes on the other side of the UK spectrum. There are those who like the promotion of (say) Tony Abbott or Toby Young because it's a display of power that really annoys the left and they can't do anything about it, tee hee hee...
It's a bit childish, but it also echoes that scary bit at the end of 1984; life may be awful, but there will always be power, the boot stamping on a face forever.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
It wasn't even moderate to a moderate, hence the moderate Cameron won a majority against the leftwing Ed Miliband platform
They were both moderate. The 2015 GE was moderation city.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Well, time will tell, we shall see by October whether we are genuinely better, or merely on a different part of the roller coaster.
Hubris can be brutal.
If you do not mind me asking, as a Doctor Foxy, do you agree with the idea that given the positivity rate of Spain was over 6% that Spain would have been missing a lot more of its asymptomatc cases and allowing them to spread than the UK is at 0.6%?
Yes, probably so, though would depend on how well targetted testing was there. A lot here is of assymptomatic people without history of contact so would expect very low positives.
I see upward trends here though, and the returning sunseekers combined with schools and unis going back*, the overcrowded Rishi meal deal restaurants all look like a risk that we emulate France and Spain. Our Covid-19 inpatients in Leicester went up last week for the first time in months, for example.
*I entirely support education restarting, but clearly a risk, as seen in America.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
All the moderates on here thought it was moderate.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
Trump has created jobs at exactly the same rate as Obama.
Unlike Obama Trump has massively ballooned the deficit.
Prior to the 2018 mid terms I read a lot of deep analysis on here about how brilliant his tax cuts were and how that would lead to a strong GOP performance.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
Trump has created jobs at exactly the same rate as Obama.
Unlike Obama Trump has massively ballooned the deficit.
Prior to the 2018 mid terms I read a lot of deep analysis on here about how brilliant his tax cuts were and how that would lead to a strong GOP performance.
I hope no one bet on that basis.
Well said. Trump is as economically incontinent as Gordon Brown, while the USA was growing. Any right winger who supports his spending plans and deficit should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Presumably, then, the reason you think he has a chance is that you like him? What is it about him that appeals to you?
I like him because he annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically.
And this morning is a case in point.
And for what? when you look at what Trump does, as opposed to says, is it really that different to other presidents? I don;t think so,.
All of which makes it rather funny.
"My enemy's enemy is my friend" only works if the contest is a zero sum game. Government and politics generally is not, or shouldn't be (indeed one of Trump's big problems is that he sees trade itself as a zero sum game with winners and losers). Just because a political opponent of mine is against cannibalism doesn't mean that I would start thinking it might be a good idea. Having someone who "annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically" is not a good enough reason to support them unless you really support them, what they stand for and do to. This was the mistake that Jeremy Corbyn appeared to make with the Salisbury poisonings: because the government were against it then how could he condemns it as well?
The same goes on the other side of the UK spectrum. There are those who like the promotion of (say) Tony Abbott or Toby Young because it's a display of power that really annoys the left and they can't do anything about it, tee hee hee...
It's a bit childish, but it also echoes that scary bit at the end of 1984; life may be awful, but there will always be power, the boot stamping on a face forever.
The likes of Tony Abbott, Roger Scruton and Toby Young were appointed to committees because they had useful and relevant experience of the subject matter.
That their appointments annoyed the hell out of a certain sort of Guardian-reading commentator was merely a happy side-effect.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
Banging on about 'our excellence' or equivalent, at every available opportunity, isn't, I suggest, in accordance with traditional British values. And our test and take system is better than it was, but it's no better than others, and not as good, perhaps, as it could be, due to insistence on new systems, rather than building on Public Health's existing systems.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
In the real world the UKs Test and Trace program is a tremendous success. It is why our positivity rate is tiny and why the ONS shows the virus is under control.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
Claiming the highest standards before you achieve them is what’s being complained about. The resources we’ve put into testing match the best in the world; the results are rather more patchy. Track & trace is more patchy still.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
Banging on about 'our excellence' or equivalent, at every available opportunity, isn't, I suggest, in accordance with traditional British values. And our test and take system is better than it was, but it's no better than others, and not as good, perhaps, as it could be, due to insistence on new systems, rather than building on Public Health's existing systems.
The evidence shows that our Test and Trace program is better than any comparable country in the world that struggled with the virus previously.
Name one country in the world please that previously had a major outbreak, is comparable to the UK and has a lower positivity rate amongst it's testing than the UK does?
We are running hundreds of thousands of tests per day and Malmesbury has the figures and charts but the ONS data shows we are now identifying half the cases happening in this country which given asymptomatic spread is a remarkable achievement by Test and Trace.
It is IMO the reason the virus is under control in this country unlike in France, Spain etc
PS building a new system is entirely appropriate when we could see that PHEs existing system was terrible compared to the systems in Germany, South Korea, Singapore etc. We have built a new system based upon what works from the best in the world not PHE.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
All the moderates on here thought it was moderate.
Ask them.
Who is a moderate here in your eyes?
Easier to list who isn't -
Me You Contra Ave It Owls Mark Sandpit Ace Paris Charles Isam
Apologies to extremists accidentally omitted. Bound to be some.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
He dares actually praise the UK? That monster!
Showing open admiration and love for the country one leads or wishes to lead will never be anything other than an electoral asset. A recurring criticism of the Miliband and Corbyn campaigns is that ordinary voters simply didn't recognize the wretched, miserable country depicted by those campaigns and certainly didn't want anyone who saw it that way to run it.
Lefties keep failing to understand this, and keep losing as a result. But look at Biden's speech the other day: no one listening to it could doubt for a second that he loves the USA, and indeed loves the US military - their welfare being 'the one sacred duty' of a President, as he repeatedly points out. Now imagine what a member of the 'progressive' Squad would say and has said about it.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
The one thing they have never faced up to is that there were legitimate reasons why Trump won. That Trump represent a big slice of America and that slice has grievances that need to be listened to as much if not more than BLM,
Instead, they have doubled down. And they are sustained by an unregulated polling industry that has raving partisans for clients.
And that's why I think they are going to lose bigger this time around
Trump won because most of the people who voted for Romney voted for him and a chunk of the people who voted for Obama stayed home in the rust belt.
This desperate desire to see Trump as a savant when he got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin yet still won would be damaging to your bank balance if you were betting on this election.
Romney got 2,115,256 votes in Michigan in 2012, Trump got 2,279,543 votes in Michigan in 2016.
Romney got 2,680,434 votes in Pennsylvania in 2012, Trump got 2,970,733 votes in Pennsylvania in 2016.
Romney got 2,661,437 votes in Ohio in 2012, Trump got 2,841,005 votes in Ohio in 2016.
Romney got 730,617 votes in Iowa in 2012, Trump got 800,983 votes in Iowa in 2016.
Romney got 4,163,447 votes in Florida in 2012, Trump got 4,617,886 votes in Florida in 2016.
In all those key swing states which voted for Obama in 2012, Trump got more votes than Romney did to win them in 2016
You also need to count how many people could regiter to vote in 2012 and 2016. If Trump got an incrase in 150 000 votes but the potential electorate increased by 500 000 citizens then that does not indicate a real increase. And you need to consider those allowed to register not just the number registered to vote, because in th USA, many people drop of the register if they know they won't vote this year.
Let’s hope so, a good deal will be better than no deal.
Absolutely.
Good deal > No Deal > Bad deal.
No. Algaebraic error.
Good Deal > Bad Deal > No Deal.
And the 1st is not happening thus -
Bad Deal > No Deal.
And No Deal is not happening thus -
Bad Deal.
To be sold as Good Deal by Muscles.
If a bad deal was better than no deal it wouldn't be that bad of a deal. But no there is no reason to think a bad deal is better than no deal, only a zealot like yourself would think that.
My algebra is the algebra of a moderate. Zealots would say either that no deal is always best or always worst.
No deal (which isn't happening) would be VERY bad. Thus a merely bad deal beats it. This really is just algebra.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
In the real world the UKs Test and Trace program is a tremendous success. It is why our positivity rate is tiny and why the ONS shows the virus is under control.
It's getting better, I grant you. But if it wasn't we'd really have cause for complaint!
How it's going to work with office workers on a Tube train I'm not sure! I've been to a couple of pubs, and done some shopping but I'm not happy yet about getting on a bus.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
And Black employment under Trump was at a record high until covid hit. many blue collar workers (which unfortunately is where black people currently are probably over-represented) did particularly, well.
But those are facts. Numbers. Stuff ravers like yourself prefer to ignore.
But its why Trump will carry a much bigger slice of the black vote than other republican presidents.
And Its one reason why he will crush Biden. Who in 47 years has done nothing for black people.
The facts are damning. He inherited a strong economy and counter cyclically boosted it by abandoning all semblance of fiscal and monetary responsibility.
I know right, how awful is that? Absolutely shameless and awful - and then when the recession hit it meant that we were totally exposed.
Thankfully he's been gone for over a decade, but then Trump came around and did the same thing in the USA. I'd not noticed the connection between Brown and Trump before but you're right to point it out.
Try not to be quite so obvious, Philip. I could have typed that in your name word for word.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
All the moderates on here thought it was moderate.
Ask them.
Who is a moderate here in your eyes?
Easier to list who isn't -
Me You Contra Ave It Owls Mark Sandpit Ace Paris Charles Isam
Apologies to extremists accidentally omitted. Bound to be some.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
All the moderates on here thought it was moderate.
Ask them.
Who is a moderate here in your eyes?
Easier to list who isn't -
Me You Contra Ave It Owls Mark Sandpit Ace Paris Charles Isam
Apologies to extremists accidentally omitted. Bound to be some.
I would never claim to be moderate and I agree that nobody in that list is.
But I don't think there are many moderates on this site in the first place. People who post on politics sites tend to have strong political opinions.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
It was said 7 or 10 years ago about the USA. Voter suppression and gerrymandering have been endemic in the USA for its entire history.
Fair point. I was thinking more of @DavidL’s point about the people at the top not caring.
But yes - the US’s electoral system does not bear close examination.
Let’s hope so, a good deal will be better than no deal.
Absolutely.
Good deal > No Deal > Bad deal.
No. Algaebraic error.
Good Deal > Bad Deal > No Deal.
And the 1st is not happening thus -
Bad Deal > No Deal.
And No Deal is not happening thus -
Bad Deal.
To be sold as Good Deal by Muscles.
If a bad deal was better than no deal it wouldn't be that bad of a deal. But no there is no reason to think a bad deal is better than no deal, only a zealot like yourself would think that.
My algebra is the algebra of a moderate. Zealots would say either that no deal is always best or always worst.
No deal (which isn't happening) would be VERY bad. Thus a merely bad deal beats it. This really is just algebra.
No deal isn't that bad.
A bad deal would be worse.
Let's say we agreed a deal with no more market access than we get from No Deal but paying billions of pounds a year to them for it and being forced to keep rules aligned without a say. Would that be better or worse than no deal?
A deal is certain. I keep telling you. We will not be moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms. It's a fictional bogeyman.
Because the EU will cave because they're bluffing, you're probably right.
This is how it will be sold to us. You will buy, I predict, but for your own self-respect you ought to wait and see the details. Don't throw yourself away too cheaply. You're not a Boris Johnson fanboy, remember. You're a man of principle.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
He dares actually praise the UK? That monster!
Showing open admiration and love for the country one leads or wishes to lead will never be anything other than an electoral asset. A recurring criticism of the Miliband and Corbyn campaigns is that ordinary voters simply didn't recognize the wretched, miserable country depicted by those campaigns and certainly didn't want anyone who saw it that way to run it.
Lefties keep failing to understand this, and keep losing as a result. But look at Biden's speech the other day: no one listening to it could doubt for a second that he loves the USA, and indeed loves the US military - their welfare being 'the one sacred duty' of a President, as he repeatedly points out. Now imagine what a member of the 'progressive' Squad would say and has said about it.
There are times when it is right and proper to use such phrases; there are times when it isn't. And expressing undying love and admiration on every conceivable (and sometimes more often) occasion leads one to suspect that someone 'doth protest too much'!
There are some serious problems in this country, and just saying 'what a wonderful place this is' doesn't even start solving them. Might make some feel better about themselves for long enough to vote for the charlatan, but no more.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
It was moderate TO a moderate. Course, viewed from the extreme right it was quite left. This is more a matter of geometry than politics.
Which moderate thought it was moderate?
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
All the moderates on here thought it was moderate.
Ask them.
Who is a moderate here in your eyes?
Easier to list who isn't -
Me You Contra Ave It Owls Mark Sandpit Ace Paris Charles Isam
Apologies to extremists accidentally omitted. Bound to be some.
I would never claim to be moderate and I agree that nobody in that list is.
But I don't think there are many moderates on this site in the first place. People who post on politics sites tend to have strong political opinions.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
It's an articulate expression of what everybody with faculties knows to be true.
But you do need the faculties.
“...the snake of wokeness..” Still puzzling over what that might mean.
Not sure but if I see it, I'm running a mile! Don't like the sound if it one iota.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
Imagine saying such a thing 7 or 10 years ago. It’s a measure of how quickly even a long-established democracy can degrade. And a warning to us here.
The US 'democracy' was going badly awry in 2000. Remember the Florida chads? And there were plenty of reports of gerrymandering Congressional districts, too.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
I don't see why being proud or setting high standards should be considered worrying?
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
Banging on about 'our excellence' or equivalent, at every available opportunity, isn't, I suggest, in accordance with traditional British values. And our test and take system is better than it was, but it's no better than others, and not as good, perhaps, as it could be, due to insistence on new systems, rather than building on Public Health's existing systems.
The evidence shows that our Test and Trace program is better than any comparable country in the world that struggled with the virus previously.
Name one country in the world please that previously had a major outbreak, is comparable to the UK and has a lower positivity rate amongst it's testing than the UK does?
We are running hundreds of thousands of tests per day and Malmesbury has the figures and charts but the ONS data shows we are now identifying half the cases happening in this country which given asymptomatic spread is a remarkable achievement by Test and Trace.
It is IMO the reason the virus is under control in this country unlike in France, Spain etc
PS building a new system is entirely appropriate when we could see that PHEs existing system was terrible compared to the systems in Germany, South Korea, Singapore etc. We have built a new system based upon what works from the best in the world not PHE.
After a very slow start back in March and April, the U.K. testing rate is now one of the best in the world.
No country larger than the U.K. has more tests per capita according to Worldometers, we are level with USA and Russia, and well ahead of all the large European countries. We have roughly 20% more tests per capita than Portugal, 25% more than Spain, 60% more than Italy and nearly double the rate in France.
But know that I would not stand a chance the minute anyone on the panel reads what I have written about the police.
A lot of us on here would genuinely love to see you apply for these jobs. You are the sort of person who could so clearly make a difference in a role like that. Go for it!
Comments
After Blair won the 1994 Labour leadership it did not elect the moderate candidate in the Leadership again until 2020 and Starmer just as when Major went the Tories did not elect the moderate candidate again in its leadership elections until Cameron
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/04/exclusive-michel-barnier-sidelined-eu-leaders-bid-break-brexit/
Representatives of the bloc’s 27 member states expect Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, to pave the way for heads of state and government to intervene in the deadlocked talks in a September 16 flagship speech.
Hubris can be brutal.
But you do need the faculties.
And, at a basic level, they are prepared to engage with their political opponents as people who are broadly engaged by the overarching motivations and objectives, just who have differing political philosophies over the best ways to achieve that. And conduct political debate and argument on that basis, including accepting where their own instinctive views may need refining when meeting with reality.
If anything, his rejection by voters showed to me that there was an essential decency in many voters in rejecting the nastiness of Corbyn and his supporters.
Instead, they have doubled down. And they are sustained by an unregulated polling industry that has raving partisans for clients.
And that's why I think they are going to lose bigger this time around
Trump murders a baby on stage - brilliant politics, it has annoyed all the right people?
Ok, so it's often at the same time - but it's a rather low bar.
This desperate desire to see Trump as a savant when he got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin yet still won would be damaging to your bank balance if you were betting on this election.
If you mean you, then you're not a moderate. Last I checked you're still in denial that Labour under Brown overspent too.
Having someone who "annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically" is not a good enough reason to support them unless you really support them, what they stand for and do to. This was the mistake that Jeremy Corbyn appeared to make with the Salisbury poisonings: because the government were against it then how could he condemns it as well?
https://youtu.be/MN9kaloihyg
I still think they need to be reopened though.
Bye
Reagan got 14% of the African American vote in 1980.
Will Trump be higher or lower than 14%?
Ok, last time, I get it. Trump is different and I can just about imagine that it looked to you that he might be worth a shot. But if you vote for him again having seen him in the job for 4 years, it will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are a dumb piece of shit who deserves to lose his job to China."
Something like that?
Romney got 2,680,434 votes in Pennsylvania in 2012, Trump got 2,970,733 votes in Pennsylvania in 2016.
Romney got 2,661,437 votes in Ohio in 2012, Trump got 2,841,005 votes in Ohio in 2016.
Romney got 730,617 votes in Iowa in 2012, Trump got 800,983 votes in Iowa in 2016.
Romney got 4,163,447 votes in Florida in 2012, Trump got 4,617,886 votes in Florida in 2016.
In all those key swing states which voted for Obama in 2012, Trump got more votes than Romney did to win them in 2016
Good deal > No Deal > Bad deal.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Indochina_War
If that were the case then it was more diplomatic to talk the time out then to have to openly refuse to accede to British wishes.
Still puzzling over what that might mean.
https://election.usc.edu/
Summary of changes follows:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HmJX11_AQE
There are some things I am more confident about than others, and I can often be dismissive when I am faced with an argument I have considered and dismissed for the umpteenth time, but I like to think that I retain this possibility, with one important caveat.
The exception is that there are some things that I now recognise that I simply believe, as a fundamental bedrock of my value system. Increasingly I think that many subsequent conclusions that I would once have thought were based on logic and fact, instead follow from my fundamental belief in the capacity of people to be reasonable to each other.
I see upward trends here though, and the returning sunseekers combined with schools and unis going back*, the overcrowded Rishi meal deal restaurants all look like a risk that we emulate France and Spain. Our Covid-19 inpatients in Leicester went up last week for the first time in months, for example.
*I entirely support education restarting, but clearly a risk, as seen in America.
https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1301700119419432960?s=19
On fishing the EU is cherrypicking and demanding it continues to get the same fish stocks it got when the UK was a member state. Sorry, but no cherrypicking allowed. The UK has generously offered the EU 50% of the UK's fish stocks, with the UK fishermen to get the other 50%. This is the same sort of deal the EU already has agreed with other nations like Norway so there is no reason for them to say no.
On state aid the UK has reasonably said that we will agree LPF terms on standard terms globally used to prevent state aid being abused, like the terms the EU already agreed with Canada. The EU is cherrypicking and insisting that we continue to be subject to the EU's own state aid terms and subject to the EU's courts rather than having common international arbitration and terms. We are asking what the EU already agrees with other nations like Canada so there is no reason for them to say no.
As soon as the EU stops being unreasonable and stops trying to cherrypick the bits of EU membership they wish to continue, then we can move on.
Though I would say there's major differences between us and the USA. Including the fact that we treat students in this country as adults which the USA does not. The data seems to be (and both the UK and Scottish governments agree on this) that transmission in pubs is much less likely than transmission in house parties. British students are able to go to pubs because we recognise 18 year olds as adults. American students all drink at frat parties etc because pubs are strictly not permitted to allow in under 21s.
Though of course the US did finance their effort for the best part of a decade.
Thankfully he's been gone for over a decade, but then Trump came around and did the same thing in the USA. I'd not noticed the connection between Brown and Trump before but you're right to point it out.
Good Deal > Bad Deal > No Deal.
And the 1st is not happening thus -
Bad Deal > No Deal.
And No Deal is not happening thus -
Bad Deal.
To be sold as Good Deal by Muscles.
Ask them.
My algebra is the algebra of a moderate. Zealots would say either that no deal is always best or always worst.
It's a bit childish, but it also echoes that scary bit at the end of 1984; life may be awful, but there will always be power, the boot stamping on a face forever.
Maybe just a blip over the Bank Holiday weekend, or possibly more significant. We don't know yet.
One thing that worries me here is that nearly every time Johnson refers to the UK and it's systems he adds a few words of praise...... compare the 'world-beating' test and trace systems. Or 'this incredible country'.
Unlike Obama Trump has massively ballooned the deficit.
Prior to the 2018 mid terms I read a lot of deep analysis on here about how brilliant his tax cuts were and how that would lead to a strong GOP performance.
I hope no one bet on that basis.
Our test and trace system is being demonstrated in real time to be world beating as it stands. We have learnt from those who dealt with the first stage well - Germany, Singapore, South Korea etc - and built out own test and trace system that is now amongst the best in the world.
In the real world, our test and trace system is failing.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-03/hancock-defends-virus-testing-after-people-told-to-travel-more-than-100-miles
That their appointments annoyed the hell out of a certain sort of Guardian-reading commentator was merely a happy side-effect.
And our test and take system is better than it was, but it's no better than others, and not as good, perhaps, as it could be, due to insistence on new systems, rather than building on Public Health's existing systems.
The resources we’ve put into testing match the best in the world; the results are rather more patchy.
Track & trace is more patchy still.
Name one country in the world please that previously had a major outbreak, is comparable to the UK and has a lower positivity rate amongst it's testing than the UK does?
We are running hundreds of thousands of tests per day and Malmesbury has the figures and charts but the ONS data shows we are now identifying half the cases happening in this country which given asymptomatic spread is a remarkable achievement by Test and Trace.
It is IMO the reason the virus is under control in this country unlike in France, Spain etc
PS building a new system is entirely appropriate when we could see that PHEs existing system was terrible compared to the systems in Germany, South Korea, Singapore etc. We have built a new system based upon what works from the best in the world not PHE.
Me
You
Contra
Ave It
Owls
Mark
Sandpit
Ace
Paris
Charles
Isam
Apologies to extremists accidentally omitted. Bound to be some.
Showing open admiration and love for the country one leads or wishes to lead will never be anything other than an electoral asset. A recurring criticism of the Miliband and Corbyn campaigns is that ordinary voters simply didn't recognize the wretched, miserable country depicted by those campaigns and certainly didn't want anyone who saw it that way to run it.
Lefties keep failing to understand this, and keep losing as a result. But look at Biden's speech the other day: no one listening to it could doubt for a second that he loves the USA, and indeed loves the US military - their welfare being 'the one sacred duty' of a President, as he repeatedly points out. Now imagine what a member of the 'progressive' Squad would say and has said about it.
If Trump got an incrase in 150 000 votes but the potential electorate increased by 500 000 citizens then that does not indicate a real increase. And you need to consider those allowed to register not just the number registered to vote, because in th USA, many people drop of the register if they know they won't vote this year.
How it's going to work with office workers on a Tube train I'm not sure! I've been to a couple of pubs, and done some shopping but I'm not happy yet about getting on a bus.
But know that I would not stand a chance the minute anyone on the panel reads what I have written about the police.
But I don't think there are many moderates on this site in the first place. People who post on politics sites tend to have strong political opinions.
But yes - the US’s electoral system does not bear close examination.
A bad deal would be worse.
Let's say we agreed a deal with no more market access than we get from No Deal but paying billions of pounds a year to them for it and being forced to keep rules aligned without a say. Would that be better or worse than no deal?
There are some serious problems in this country, and just saying 'what a wonderful place this is' doesn't even start solving them. Might make some feel better about themselves for long enough to vote for the charlatan, but no more.
No country larger than the U.K. has more tests per capita according to Worldometers, we are level with USA and Russia, and well ahead of all the large European countries. We have roughly 20% more tests per capita than Portugal, 25% more than Spain, 60% more than Italy and nearly double the rate in France.
Nous ne sommes rien, soyons tout.
Unlikely to bet unless Bottas has silly odds. Could be lots of teams tripping up over one another in ridiculous traffics jams.