Just routine, I would be amazed if otherwise. But thanks anyway. According to the blurb I am likely to hear by SMS and email middle to end of next week
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
Good post. The much vaunted values of political parties are a joke, they shift and mutate and they can become something very different.
Third, Trump is actually retaining more of his 2016 vote than Biden. 91% of Trump 2016 voters are still voting for him compared to just 7% who have switched to Biden however only 88% of Clinton voters are voting for Biden compared to 9% who have switched to Trump. Biden is only ahead as third party voters from 2016 are breaking for him over Trump 59% to 18% but no reason they may not go back to third party or stay home. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
I think it's common to see a pattern like this because a common voter lifecycle goes
be born -> vote left -> vote right -> die
So just to stay level right-wing politicians need to be continually converting middle-aged voters from the left to make up for the ones who have shuffled off this mortal coil.
Why the hell couldn’t the US have had candidates like these to choose from instead of the senile old tossers they now have?
Joe Biden is older than is ideal for a candidate for US president but he is not senile. He's 77 and acts like it.
Would we be diagnosing any other elderly man who fails to look and speak like somebody much younger as senile? I don't think so.
Absolutely people would, without question.
If the candidates are very old compared to the average there will be comments about their wits, if they are younger there will be comments their experience or maturity even if they are in the prime of life.
Terrible line from Pete. Never mention your opponents supporters in a way that can be taken as a slur even if you don;t mean it that way. He's just called Trump voters stupid.
After yesterday and Biden's passionate and angry reply to Trump's comments on the military who have lost their lives, Biden should be about a 90% chance in my opinion.
The numbers are clear. There's no guarantee of course but it's going to take something huge to swing this around and frankly it's going the wrong way for Trump at the minute.
Trump could win, but a Carter style humiliation looks more likely to me than a Trump victory.
You couldn't watch that Biden clip and think he has dementia. You could still say he has but you'd be knowingly spreading Trump propaganda. And why would anyone other than ardent Trump supporters want to do that?
Third, Trump is actually retaining more of his 2016 vote than Biden. 91% of Trump 2016 voters are still voting for him compared to just 7% who have switched to Biden however only 88% of Clinton voters are voting for Biden compared to 9% who have switched to Trump. Biden is only ahead as third party voters from 2016 are breaking for him over Trump 59% to 18% but no reason they may not go back to third party or stay home. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
I think it's common to see a pattern like this because a common voter lifecycle goes
be born -> vote left -> vote right -> die
So just to stay level right-wing politicians need to be continually converting middle-aged voters from the left to make up for the ones who have shuffled off this mortal coil.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Third, Trump is actually retaining more of his 2016 vote than Biden. 91% of Trump 2016 voters are still voting for him compared to just 7% who have switched to Biden however only 88% of Clinton voters are voting for Biden compared to 9% who have switched to Trump. Biden is only ahead as third party voters from 2016 are breaking for him over Trump 59% to 18% but no reason they may not go back to third party or stay home. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
I think it's common to see a pattern like this because a common voter lifecycle goes
be born -> vote left -> vote right -> die
So just to stay level right-wing politicians need to be continually converting middle-aged voters from the left to make up for the ones who have shuffled off this mortal coil.
Third, Trump is actually retaining more of his 2016 vote than Biden. 91% of Trump 2016 voters are still voting for him compared to just 7% who have switched to Biden however only 88% of Clinton voters are voting for Biden compared to 9% who have switched to Trump. Biden is only ahead as third party voters from 2016 are breaking for him over Trump 59% to 18% but no reason they may not go back to third party or stay home. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
I think it's common to see a pattern like this because a common voter lifecycle goes
be born -> vote left -> vote right -> die
So just to stay level right-wing politicians need to be continually converting middle-aged voters from the left to make up for the ones who have shuffled off this mortal coil.
He's up and raging at the liberal media of err.. *checks notes* Fox News.
I think this is what is going to cut through most of all. Americans don't like their military veterans being disrespected. The rainy day in France when Trump chose not to go with the other world leaders and show his respect will probably now seal his, and his party's, fate.
Didn't we have basically this exact same storyline in 2016 with the John McCain and that thing with the Gold Star Parents? I know Biden is executing the attack way better than Hillary did, but if it didn't kill Trump in 2016 then I don't think it'll kill him now, what with all that other stuff going on. (Not that you can kill someone who's already dead, but you know what I mean...)
Yes. Absoluyely Correct and an important observation.
However... in 2019 we also had "isn't this all the same stuff with Corbyn and terrorism loving as in 2017?". I know I certainly thought that the attacks were played out. But the second time around they seemed to cut through.
I think 2019 was more anti-Semitism and being unwholesomely careful about jumping to conclusions about who Putin did and didn't poison, they both dropped mainly after 2017.
I suspect it was because in 2019 the attacks were made under the radar on social media. If Corbyn did not know he was being attacked for meeting the IRA, he could not defend himself, as he had previously done, by claiming he was promoting peace, to take one example.
In 2017 the IRA stuff seemed like history. Skripal changed things. It highlighted Corbyn’s unwillingness to stand up against this country’s enemies. The IRA stuff resonated then in a way it had not before. It became part of a pattern.
Yes, that is true but (or and, if you prefer) most it was below the radar. CCHQ's MO was, I suspect, to make small-scale social media tests to see what attacks resonated with which groups of voters, then go in hard and late with microtargeted attacks. It is consistent with what we know from Cummings and the Brexit campaign, though we might need to wait for the memoirs for full details.
Yes - I’m sure that was part of it. Having listened to that Corbynism podcast I was struck by how many Labour insiders recognised at the time how disastrous Corbyn’s response to Skripal was. In one programme on Scotland a Labour canvasser during the 2019 election found one of the voters berating her over the IRA stuff quite unprompted and the neighbours joining in. It was in a constituency with strong military connections. So the micro-targeting will have had an effect in a way that it didn’t in 2017 because of Corbyn’s strategic mistake over Russia.
Finished the podcast. Yes, Salisbury was damaging for Corbyn. I thought so at the time but probably didn't realize quite how much.
And I'm hoping this was the main electoral problem with Corbyn. That he was anti-west and thus not fit to be PM of the UK. Because I agree (although his opponent was even less fit to be PM) and also the problem is fixed now.
What I'm hoping is NOT the case is that the public rejected him because he and the party were perceived to be too socially liberal. Because if so, as far as I'm concerned, it's the public who are going to have to change, and that is no easy thing to bring about.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
Mayor Pete's got all the right lines but he just looks that little bit too smug to carry it off...
At least he’s not calling Trump supporters Deplorables, or racists.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
The main test used to diagnose coronavirus is so sensitive it could be picking up fragments of dead virus from old infections, scientists say.
Most people are infectious only for about a week, but could test positive weeks afterwards.
Researchers say this could be leading to an over-estimate of the current scale of the pandemic.
But some experts say it is uncertain how a reliable test can be produced that doesn't risk missing cases.
Prof Carl Heneghan, one of the study's authors, said instead of giving a "yes/no" result based on whether any virus is detected, tests should have a cut-off point so that very small amounts of virus do not trigger a positive result.
He believes the detection of traces of old virus could partly explain why the number of cases is rising while hospital admissions remain stable.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
Absolutely not an element of truth in this at all.
Yes numbers testing positive may be comparable but that is not the full story, since number of infection != Number of positive tests.
Spain on 21 July had 6.2% of Tests coming back positive. UK currently has 0.6% of Tests coming back positive.
Spanish positivity rate on 21 July was 1000% higher than the UKs currently is. Those figures are worlds apart.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
Mayor Pete's got all the right lines but he just looks that little bit too smug to carry it off...
At least he’s not calling Trump supporters Deplorables, or racists.
"You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. (Laughter/applause) Right? (Laughter/applause) They're racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it. And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people – now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks – they are irredeemable, but thankfully, they are not America."
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Why the hell couldn’t the US have had candidates like these to choose from instead of the senile old tossers they now have?
Joe Biden is older than is ideal for a candidate for US president but he is not senile. He's 77 and acts like it.
Would we be diagnosing any other elderly man who fails to look and speak like somebody much younger as senile? I don't think so.
Absolutely people would, without question.
If the candidates are very old compared to the average there will be comments about their wits, if they are younger there will be comments their experience or maturity even if they are in the prime of life.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
Ed Miliband was the left candidate in 2010 in the final round against his centrist brother David
Why the hell couldn’t the US have had candidates like these to choose from instead of the senile old tossers they now have?
Joe Biden is older than is ideal for a candidate for US president but he is not senile. He's 77 and acts like it.
Would we be diagnosing any other elderly man who fails to look and speak like somebody much younger as senile? I don't think so.
Absolutely people would, without question.
If the candidates are very old compared to the average there will be comments about their wits, if they are younger there will be comments their experience or maturity even if they are in the prime of life.
Some people would, yes. But most of us wouldn't.
And most of us don't suggest Biden has dementia, just that he is indeed old. So what's the problem? Most don't, some do.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
McCain chose Sarah Palin. Is there a third option.
The problem Buttigieg has with that proposal is that McCain lost and Trump won.
Not many Republicans will be happy to win the moral high ground if it also means they lose the election
McCain was facing Obama after 8 years of a Republican Presidency. Trump was facing Hillary after 8 years of a Democrat Presidency.
Had they swapped elections then McCain would have likely beaten Hillary and Obama would have crushed Trump.
Maybe but that does not change the fact the record shows the Republican Party has not picked a moderate nominee who has actually managed to win a general election since Bush Snr in 1988
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Why the hell couldn’t the US have had candidates like these to choose from instead of the senile old tossers they now have?
Joe Biden is older than is ideal for a candidate for US president but he is not senile. He's 77 and acts like it.
Would we be diagnosing any other elderly man who fails to look and speak like somebody much younger as senile? I don't think so.
To me it feels as if it is time to pass on to a younger generation. Biden may be fine for now. But this election is for the next 4, possibly, 8 years. Titian may have painted some of his greatest works in his 70’s and 80’s but having a gerontocracy in power does not seem optimal to me.
Yes, I feel that too. 2 elderly men slugging it out for the highest elected office in the world. Not great. But "Biden is senile" is incorrect and is a Trump attack line, so I feel moved to rebut when I see it. And whilst not a Trump attack line, "They are both just terrible and past it" is also problematical for me since it makes it appear to be a tough choice - which it isn't. Anyway, nothing personal, I know you'd vote Biden without agonizing too much.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
I didn’t actually say it was I just pointed out that you can go from x to y quite rapidly. The intention being to warn people not to fall into the complacency trap.
Truss is absolutely fantastic. I'd support her to be PM.
Williamson is still in post for the same reason all the other Education Secretaries are, it was never a resigning matter.
Non story no matter how much you whinge and throw your toys out of the cot.
To be fair Fysh seems to be saying that the British Government won't impose tariffs on food imports. Which is (probably) correct. It rather looks as if we're approaching a situation somewhat analogous to the abolition of the Corn Laws which, unless I am mistaken, resulted in the ruin of large parts of British agriculture.
McCain chose Sarah Palin. Is there a third option.
The problem Buttigieg has with that proposal is that McCain lost and Trump won.
Not many Republicans will be happy to win the moral high ground if it also means they lose the election
McCain was facing Obama after 8 years of a Republican Presidency. Trump was facing Hillary after 8 years of a Democrat Presidency.
Had they swapped elections then McCain would have likely beaten Hillary and Obama would have crushed Trump.
Maybe but that does not change the fact the record shows the Republican Party has not picked a moderate nominee who has actually managed to win a general election since Bush Snr in 1988
Yes they have. George W Bush in 2000 ran as a moderate compassionate Conservative whose first acts included the No Child Left Behind Act. After 9/11 he became much more neoconservative but in 2000 he wasn't.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
I wonder how many Americans realise that they’re pretty much unique in the Western world, for being unable to declare an election result within 48 hours of the polls closing?
McCain chose Sarah Palin. Is there a third option.
The problem Buttigieg has with that proposal is that McCain lost and Trump won.
Not many Republicans will be happy to win the moral high ground if it also means they lose the election
McCain was facing Obama after 8 years of a Republican Presidency. Trump was facing Hillary after 8 years of a Democrat Presidency.
Had they swapped elections then McCain would have likely beaten Hillary and Obama would have crushed Trump.
Maybe but that does not change the fact the record shows the Republican Party has not picked a moderate nominee who has actually managed to win a general election since Bush Snr in 1988
Yes they have. George W Bush in 2000 ran as a moderate compassionate Conservative whose first acts included the No Child Left Behind Act. After 9/11 he became much more neoconservative but in 2000 he wasn't.
George W Bush was not the moderate candidate even in 2000, John McCain was his main primary opponent then and the moderate candidate.
Had McCain not run Bush may have been the moderate but against McCain he ended up being the conservative and even speaking at Bob Jones university to try and rally evangelicals for him against McCain in the South Carolina primary that in effect decided the nomination
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Presumably, then, the reason you think he has a chance is that you like him? What is it about him that appeals to you?
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
I didn’t actually say it was I just pointed out that you can go from x to y quite rapidly. The intention being to warn people not to fall into the complacency trap.
But we aren't at the same X as Spain. Spain by the end of July had already lost control of the virus again which is why their positivity rate was back up above 6% again. If your positivity rate in tests is 6% then there are far more people actually positive going untested. The UK's positivity rate is one tenth of that.
Why the hell couldn’t the US have had candidates like these to choose from instead of the senile old tossers they now have?
Joe Biden is older than is ideal for a candidate for US president but he is not senile. He's 77 and acts like it.
Would we be diagnosing any other elderly man who fails to look and speak like somebody much younger as senile? I don't think so.
Absolutely people would, without question.
If the candidates are very old compared to the average there will be comments about their wits, if they are younger there will be comments their experience or maturity even if they are in the prime of life.
Some people would, yes. But most of us wouldn't.
And most of us don't suggest Biden has dementia, just that he is indeed old. So what's the problem? Most don't, some do.
Cyclefree did suggest it. I duly objected and she has gracefully retracted because she didn't mean it.
McCain chose Sarah Palin. Is there a third option.
The problem Buttigieg has with that proposal is that McCain lost and Trump won.
Not many Republicans will be happy to win the moral high ground if it also means they lose the election
McCain was facing Obama after 8 years of a Republican Presidency. Trump was facing Hillary after 8 years of a Democrat Presidency.
Had they swapped elections then McCain would have likely beaten Hillary and Obama would have crushed Trump.
Maybe but that does not change the fact the record shows the Republican Party has not picked a moderate nominee who has actually managed to win a general election since Bush Snr in 1988
Yes they have. George W Bush in 2000 ran as a moderate compassionate Conservative whose first acts included the No Child Left Behind Act. After 9/11 he became much more neoconservative but in 2000 he wasn't.
George W Bush was not the moderate candidate even in 2000, John McCain was his main primary opponent then and the moderate candidate.
Had McCain not run Bush may have been the moderate but against McCain he ended up being the conservative and even speaking at Bob Jones university to try and rally evangelicals for him against McCain in the South Carolina primary that in effect decided the nomination
McCain and Bush both ran as moderates. Bush ran as a Compassionate Conservative.
Oh dear, Guardian readers getting their pens out to write to Midwestern oiks again, did not work out too well in 2004 when they asked them to vote for Kerry. If Biden has any sense he will pay them not to
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Presumably, then, the reason you think he has a chance is that you like him? What is it about him that appeals to you?
I like him because he annoys the cr@p out of people I disagree with politically.
And this morning is a case in point.
And for what? when you look at what Trump does, as opposed to says, is it really that different to other presidents? I don;t think so,.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
I didn’t actually say it was I just pointed out that you can go from x to y quite rapidly. The intention being to warn people not to fall into the complacency trap.
Given what happened in March I think we should already be aware that things can change within a few weeks.
But so far the UK is not following the pattern Spain did.
And while we should not be complacent nor should we always panic and assume the worse will happen.
Does anyone have any data as to the age group infection rate back in March and April ?
Not the testing results - the testing back then was concentrated among those who were sick ie mostly the old.
Because I have doubts about the 'infection rate are now mostly among the young' claims.
I suspect back in the spring there were loads of the young being infected but never being recorded as cases because they had zero or mild symptoms.
Entirely possible given the levels of testing available at the time and the current behavior of the at risk groups being more risk averse. There does need to be a rethink on care homes because the residents need visitors but visitors increase the risk as do non-resident staff. No idea what the answer is.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
If you think Ed "No Labour didn't spend too much" Miliband was a moderate then it shows how the Overton Window has moved to the left within Labour.
Just take a look at the 2015 Labour manifesto. It makes my point beyond doubt.
Yes it was not moderate.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Strong. Very strong. And great writing.
Another case in point. Raving evidence-free rubbish
Judging by the foam flecked Trump hate on here this morning some people are going to need therapy if there is a Trump win.
Yes, that's probably true, what of it? A lot of people really dislike Trump, and even so don't think his defeat is certain, it's possible to separate out dislike of him with his prospects.
It really isn;t
Prior to the 2019 election I picked out Conservative most seats as they were he most ludicrously long short priced favourite as a bet. It was something mental like 1.3 or something.
Priort to that in 2017 Conservatives to win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk @1.83 was the bet of the election for sure fire guaranteed value.
Dems to win at 1.9 blow those two bets out of the water.
I wonder how many Americans realise that they’re pretty much unique in the Western world, for being unable to declare an election result within 48 hours of the polls closing?
I suspect few follow or care about news from the rest of the world...
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
I didn’t actually say it was I just pointed out that you can go from x to y quite rapidly. The intention being to warn people not to fall into the complacency trap.
But we aren't at the same X as Spain. Spain by the end of July had already lost control of the virus again which is why their positivity rate was back up above 6% again. If your positivity rate in tests is 6% then there are far more people actually positive going untested. The UK's positivity rate is one tenth of that.
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
How important is the Republican machine to Trump? If the party activists lose the faith (and I mean the machinery that fights elections and gets the Vote out) in favour of fighting for local Senate/Congressmen and not Trump could that accelerate the (possible) defeat. From a distance is there any sense the Reps decide to abandon him?
That's entirely the point of the Buttigieg intervention
You can be a real Republican, or you can support trump...
This idea that there is a real Republican Party which will reappear when Trump goes may be a comforting one. But I fear that it may be an illusion: the Republican Party is now tied to Trump and his values and what he has made of it.
Parties change. We should not assume that there is some true essence carefully preserved somewhere in some distant place which will survive and grow again when current troubles pass. The Republican Party of Eisenhower has turned into the party of Trump. The Tory party has turned into a mix of Ukip and the Brexit party.
After 2 defeats Labour turned into Corbyn’s party - and may now turn into something else - we’ll see.
But if it does it will be because, in part, of last December’s humongous defeat and how much actual change there will be is still an open question. It is not at all clear that it will turn back into what it used to be.
The issue in the US is most moderate conservatives are now independents not Republicans leaving the Republican party the party of staunch conservatives. After McCain and Romney won the nomination but lost the election it will likely take at least another decade for another moderate to become nominee.
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Ed Miliband was a soft left moderate.
Ed Miliband was the left candidate in 2010 in the final round against his centrist brother David
He was. But he was soft left - aka "moderate" - and the party did not move very far to the left under him. Labour's offering to the public in 2015 was centre left rather than radical.
Whilst I don't agree with Extinction Rebellion's actions and I hope Labour will condemn them, I am not going to cry tears for the Sun or the Mail
That’s a dangerous attitude to take.
You can be a big critic of the way the media operates (and I certainly have been, this year in particular), but the right to a free press is absolutely fundamental to the concept of democracy.
McCain chose Sarah Palin. Is there a third option.
The problem Buttigieg has with that proposal is that McCain lost and Trump won.
Not many Republicans will be happy to win the moral high ground if it also means they lose the election
McCain was facing Obama after 8 years of a Republican Presidency. Trump was facing Hillary after 8 years of a Democrat Presidency.
Had they swapped elections then McCain would have likely beaten Hillary and Obama would have crushed Trump.
Maybe but that does not change the fact the record shows the Republican Party has not picked a moderate nominee who has actually managed to win a general election since Bush Snr in 1988
Yes they have. George W Bush in 2000 ran as a moderate compassionate Conservative whose first acts included the No Child Left Behind Act. After 9/11 he became much more neoconservative but in 2000 he wasn't.
George W Bush was not the moderate candidate even in 2000, John McCain was his main primary opponent then and the moderate candidate.
Had McCain not run Bush may have been the moderate but against McCain he ended up being the conservative and even speaking at Bob Jones university to try and rally evangelicals for him against McCain in the South Carolina primary that in effect decided the nomination
McCain and Bush both ran as moderates. Bush ran as a Compassionate Conservative.
In the general election yes, in the primaries Bush was anything but a compassionate conservative including speaking at ultra conservative Bob Jones university which even banned mixed race dating
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
I'm going out because its a nice morning and the hate on here is almost too much.
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
The left have allowed Trump to get to them, which is the one thing they shouldn't have done if they wanted to get rid of him at this election.
Just a reminder, Spain had the same level of infections as the UK had yesterday on July 21st outbreaks were being managed on an individual basis ‘whack a mole’ style the escalation was, as it is in France, dramatic and rapid.
So we've gone from being told the UK is only two weeks behind Spain to being told that the UK is six weeks behind Spain.
Even longer when you take into account Spain's smaller population and lower testing.
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
Spain has the highest actual population density in Europe with the majority being located in only 18% of the land mass. The mass movements of people to the coasts for August hasn’t helped and the stupidity of opening late night dance venues was obviously a mistake. I just pointed out that on a particular date x was x and growth continued and accelerated. I’m sure the UK is doing a sterling job and it will completely avoid a second wave due to its world beating everything. Everything else about the growth in new infections looks similar, younger, less hospitalizations, less icu usage but obviously that’s a coincidence.
You've been telling us that for two months.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
I didn’t actually say it was I just pointed out that you can go from x to y quite rapidly. The intention being to warn people not to fall into the complacency trap.
But we aren't at the same X as Spain. Spain by the end of July had already lost control of the virus again which is why their positivity rate was back up above 6% again. If your positivity rate in tests is 6% then there are far more people actually positive going untested. The UK's positivity rate is one tenth of that.
Fine
I know you probably don't mean it that way but you sound disappointed that we aren't about to spiral out of control like Spain.
Number of positive cases is not the most important metric. Number of positive cases combined with the positivity rate is far more interesting. If the positivity rate starts to go back up again, or if the ONS survey starts to go up then it means we are losing control again as we aren't catching the cases and stopping them. That is what happened to Spain by the end of July already. Keep an eye on that.
Whilst I don't agree with Extinction Rebellion's actions and I hope Labour will condemn them, I am not going to cry tears for the Sun or the Mail
I am not unsympathetic to XR, but I think that the protests risk Piers Corbyn like fines. All part of the creeping supression of democratic protest, undercover of the virus.
Comments
be born -> vote left -> vote right -> die
So just to stay level right-wing politicians need to be continually converting middle-aged voters from the left to make up for the ones who have shuffled off this mortal coil.
If the candidates are very old compared to the average there will be comments about their wits, if they are younger there will be comments their experience or maturity even if they are in the prime of life.
He said Trump thinks his voters are stupid
(& I don’t think Biden senile, just old.)
It would therefore take high independent voters turnout in open primaries for a moderate Republican like say Nikki Haley to beat a staunch conservative like Pence or Cruz for the nomination in 2024 even if Trump loses and does not run again.
After Blair went in 2007 it took 13 years for Labour to elect another moderate leader in a contested leadership election, after Major lost in 1997 it took 8 years for the Tories to elect a moderate as leader and if Biden loses expect AOC to run in 2024 on a populist left banner for the Democratic nomination and to try and pick up where Bernie Sanders left off.
Not many Republicans will be happy to win the moral high ground if it also means they lose the election
Trump leads with middle aged voters from 35 to 65
And I'm hoping this was the main electoral problem with Corbyn. That he was anti-west and thus not fit to be PM of the UK. Because I agree (although his opponent was even less fit to be PM) and also the problem is fixed now.
What I'm hoping is NOT the case is that the public rejected him because he and the party were perceived to be too socially liberal. Because if so, as far as I'm concerned, it's the public who are going to have to change, and that is no easy thing to bring about.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/China-officials-run-for-cover-as-Xi-Jinping-prepares-another-brutal-purge
Posted without comment...
Or given that UK cases started increasing at the same time as Spain's the situations are different:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Otherwise a weekday edition (or even a Sunday) would be more impactful, no?
Coronavirus tests run out in north-east England as cases surge
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/04/covid-tests-running-out-in-north-east-england-gateshead-as-cases-surge
There’s either a big organisational problem, or a big honesty problem.
Most people are infectious only for about a week, but could test positive weeks afterwards.
Researchers say this could be leading to an over-estimate of the current scale of the pandemic.
But some experts say it is uncertain how a reliable test can be produced that doesn't risk missing cases.
Prof Carl Heneghan, one of the study's authors, said instead of giving a "yes/no" result based on whether any virus is detected, tests should have a cut-off point so that very small amounts of virus do not trigger a positive result.
He believes the detection of traces of old virus could partly explain why the number of cases is rising while hospital admissions remain stable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/tried-book-test-nearest-one-18878425
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20201103T1930&p0=263&msg=everybody+laughs+at+americans+trying+to+count+votes
Could be worse, she might actually be called Baroness. I think the expression on wee Barron's face in the header photo speaks for a lot of us.
Yes numbers testing positive may be comparable but that is not the full story, since number of infection != Number of positive tests.
Spain on 21 July had 6.2% of Tests coming back positive.
UK currently has 0.6% of Tests coming back positive.
Spanish positivity rate on 21 July was 1000% higher than the UKs currently is. Those figures are worlds apart.
Bad politics. But 100% stone cold truth.
Trump was facing Hillary after 8 years of a Democrat Presidency.
Had they swapped elections then McCain would have likely beaten Hillary and Obama would have crushed Trump.
Yet the UK hasn't followed the same pattern as Spain.
Things can happen differently in different countries.
But now, sunshine is here.
Williamson is still in post for the same reason all the other Education Secretaries are, it was never a resigning matter.
Non story no matter how much you whinge and throw your toys out of the cot.
"that’s why I want to say something as clearly and as emphatically as I can. I despise what too much of the left has become. I worry about the far left’s contempt for liberal democracy and their view of the American experiment as a form of racist oppression which can only be righted by reverse racist oppression. And I’m dismayed by the liberal denial and appeasement of these deeply illiberal trends.
But it’s also vital to understand that the most powerful enabler of this left extremism has been Trump himself. He has delegitimized capitalism by his cronyism, corruption, and indifference to dangerously high levels of inequality. He has tainted conservatism indelibly as riddled with racism, xenophobia, paranoia, misogyny, and derangement. Every hoary stereotype leveled against the right for decades has been given credence by the GOP’s support for this monster of a human being. If moderates have any chance of defanging the snake of wokeness, and its attempt to deconstruct our Enlightenment inheritance, we must begin with removing the cancer of Trump from the body politic. It is not an ordinary cancer. It is metastasizing across the republic and spreading to the lifeblood of our democracy itself. Removing it will not be enough. But not removing it is democratic death. "
Those MPs are now starting to throw their weight around
Had McCain not run Bush may have been the moderate but against McCain he ended up being the conservative and even speaking at Bob Jones university to try and rally evangelicals for him against McCain in the South Carolina primary that in effect decided the nomination
Not the testing results - the testing back then was concentrated among those who were sick ie mostly the old.
Because I have doubts about the 'infection rate are now mostly among the young' claims.
I suspect back in the spring there were loads of the young being infected but never being recorded as cases because they had zero or mild symptoms.
Is that Ok with you?
https://twitter.com/RSAMatthew/status/1302165755568574464?s=20
And this morning is a case in point.
And for what? when you look at what Trump does, as opposed to says, is it really that different to other presidents? I don;t think so,.
All of which makes it rather funny.
But so far the UK is not following the pattern Spain did.
And while we should not be complacent nor should we always panic and assume the worse will happen.
That it wasn't absolutely insanely crazy extremism doesn't make it moderate.
Priort to that in 2017 Conservatives to win Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk @1.83 was the bet of the election for sure fire guaranteed value.
Dems to win at 1.9 blow those two bets out of the water.
And yet....
Trump fluked 2016. Can he fiddle 2020? I am not sure that America has a strong claim to be a functioning democracy anymore and those in charge don’t seem to care.
You can be a big critic of the way the media operates (and I certainly have been, this year in particular), but the right to a free press is absolutely fundamental to the concept of democracy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5cR-v3IIbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPM0-wkvoDs
Look at that Sullivan piece, and look at the spirit of contemplation of Trump in the mainstream media. And ask yourself whether a polling company they are sponsoring would really serve up a Trump friendly poll to those guys.
Maybe you think they would. I tell you, I don;t.
Number of positive cases is not the most important metric. Number of positive cases combined with the positivity rate is far more interesting. If the positivity rate starts to go back up again, or if the ONS survey starts to go up then it means we are losing control again as we aren't catching the cases and stopping them. That is what happened to Spain by the end of July already. Keep an eye on that.
https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1301137971865845762?s=19