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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Biden moves to evens on Betfair new Ipsos WH2020 poll has h
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Biden moves to evens on Betfair new Ipsos WH2020 poll has him leading Trump by 15% on favourability
There’s a new ABC News/Ipsos WH2020 poll out with its first leadership ratings since the end of the conventions. As can be seen above Biden has moved 46% favourable in the latest poll which is up 6% over three weeks ago. He’s also seen his unfavourable numbers decline.
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While I think Trump is on more favourable electoral territory, with the focus on law & order, it doesn't really seem - at any point - to have made any significant difference to Biden's polling.
Indeed, look at the 538 or RCP averages (and while I suspect Nate Silver of Democratic sympathies, RCP is slightly right of centre). They both show Biden continuing to be very close to his high watermark polling-wise. (It's hard to have much of a bounce when you're already at 50 percent in the polling, and your peak is 51% back in May.)
I do see Republicans as more motivated. I also think that a lot of the undecideds will break for Trump. But unless that Biden share moves down from 50%, then Trump is going to really find this very difficult.
A Trump win would hit PBers hard.
Hopefully no mistakes were made along the way, as that crank deserves to face up to his punishment. You seem to have bought into his conspiracy theorist mindset that he was indeed targeted in particular, I wonder why.
Even if he was he gets a lot of press for his crank views and breaking the law in this way, so the targeting, if it happened, is not necessarily unreasonable.
Cold. Blooded. Murder.
Police will do nothing.
as a regular joe walks past them not spouting the catchphrase du jour.
SHOOT HIM!
and then someone did.
The low points of Trump's approval polling to date have been associated with playing precisely the cards he's now playing: After Charlottesville, and after he tear-gassed BLM protestors for a photo op. Leave aside the fact that he won in 2016 and therefore the justified suspicion that he may be one step ahead of us, what's the *objective* evidence that Americans in swing states want their president to be representing one side in an unasked-for civil war?
https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1300154010750660612?s=20
That doesn't undermine that our numbers show just how badly we've been affected, but of the truly large Western European nations only Germany has done well, France a bit better, and Spain and Italy about the same, and without Boris Johnson as a factor. As a continent we look to have done collectively badly despite very different systems and governments.
https://twitter.com/TheRebeccaMetz/status/1299869241156362240
And the general impression the media are giving is that there aren't too many big fines being imposed.
But you make a fair point that we need independent confirmation as to what has happened.
Some of the replacement agreements are believed to guarantee an operating profit margin of as little as 0.5pc. While this could be appetising for the likes of South Western, which has sustained significant losses, it would be less appealing to others by pushing them into the red once other overheads are accounted for.
If the state has to guarantee a profit for private operators, perhaps it is time to accept the private companies are incapable of running the railways and so instead we should cut them out altogether and run things ourselves
Germany are much lower population density and got off lightly compared to the rest of western Europe but they are the exception not the rule.
But more importantly - its not a f***ing sport with a f***ing league table.
And it is indeed both noteworthy and reassuring that Biden has such a massive lead on favourables and not just net favourables. One thing Trump backers claim is that he is loved by his supporters but that doesn't seem the case here at all. A lot of traditional Republicans feel no love whatsoever for Trump.
I really think that Trump is Britain's Jeremy Corbyn and that like Corbyn people are overrating his chances this time, because he out performed the polls last time.
If you'd asked people a year ago I would which would have seemed more believable: a deadly pandemic sweeps the world forcing people to be locked inside their homes . . . or that up and down the country people would be praising and grateful for the Treasury.
That's what we do, anyway.
And is that an authentic Tweet? I note the lack of a blue tick and the weird spelling in the handle.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1300177759814250496
Wisconsin highlights this perfectly. What polls there were (about two per month) usually had Hillary ahead by 4 or 5. But a single poll in August with a 15 point lead completely skews the average.
My view is the same at General as it was in the Midterms - watch the national number, but remember that Biden probably needs to be ahead by three percentage points to be sure of a win.
The original RCP data is here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/#!
However, you can't just compare the mid-west polling from 2016 then add a mental correction for "Hillary Clinton polled X but ended up at Y", because the pollsters will already have corrected for whatever they think was creating a difference between X and Y.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html#polls
The Kenosha shooter had no right to be there armed - literally. He committed multiple felonies even being there with his firearm: he was underaged and his possession of the firearm was a felony; he carried the firearm illegally across state lines another felony.
His spree of felonies ended up with two people dead - and suddenly we see "law and order" advocates online all repeating the same line saying it was self-defence and nothing to see here. Funny how law-breaking leading to deaths isn't an issue when its his law breaking.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
It's true there wasn't much polling in Michigan and Wisconsin last time.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1300212434276409347
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/30/angela-merkel-great-migrant-gamble-paid-off
It may turn out similarly to the Vietnamese migration - the "boat people" have generally turned out to be an asset to their new societies.
The problem was the polls underestimated Trump more. Hillary 46.8 average v 47.5 actual and Trump 44.7 average v 48.2 actual. So last time 8.5% were saying others or not giving an answer, vs only 4.3% voting others so there was an others to Trump swing in the polls not a Hillary to Trump swing.
This year as it stands the average in PA is 4.7% lead to Biden which is beyond margin of error and more significantly Biden is currently polling 49.0 himself. If he does get 49% or more its hard to see how he can lose the state even if Trump squeezes the others again.
2010 - Cons overstated / Lab understated
2015 - Cons understated / Lab overstated
2017 - Cons overstated / Lab understated
2019 - Cons understated / Lab overstated
And the same is true of the US. Let's compare to RCP polling average:
2016 - Republicans outperformed by 1.1% the RCP polling aveage
2012 - Democrats outperformed by 3.2%
2008 - Republicans outperformed by 0.7%
It's almost like there's a natural tendency to overcorrect each time. (It's also notable that President Trump only outperformed the RCP average by a little over 1% last time around.)
That years later it may have been in Germany's interests does not make what Merkel did right.
I stand by what I said at the time. If Merkel wanted to take people in she should have done so by flying people in direct from the refugee camps in Turkey direct and safe into Germany. Not simply say that anyone who can pay people smugglers to get them into Germany can stay there.
Let's look back at history, comparing the end of August poll number, with what was achieved in November:
2016:
Clinton from 46.8 to 48.2 - up 1.4%
Trump from 41.9 to 46.1 - up 4.2%
2012:
Obama from 46.4 to 51.1 - up 4.7%
Romney from 46.1 to 48.1 - up 2.0%
2008:
Obama from 48.8 to 52.9 - up 4.1%
McCain from 44.3 to 45.6 - up 1.3%
2004:
Kerry from 45.6 to 48.3 - up 2.6%
Bush from 46.0 to 50.7 - up 4.7%
2000:
Bush from 46 to 47.9 - up 1.9%
Gore from 45 to 48.4 - up 3.3%
Two things: (1) Every major Presidential candidate seems to have seen their vote share rise. The smallest increase was just 1.3% for McCain in 2008. (2) No candidate was scoring as well at this point as Biden is.
Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada. And only three of them ended up going Republican.
On the basis of absolute polling share it is definitely Biden's election to lose. It seems quite plausible he will end up with an absolute majority of votes cast and not just a plurality.
The cohort of youngsters whose futures were crushed by lockdown may never forgive the Tories
BY LOUISE PERRY"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-generation-betrayed-by-boris/
I grew up watching old re-runs of Lost In Space and shows like that after school, but man hasn't been on the moon for nearly half a century now, since a decade before I was even more . . . but SpaceX really are making it feel close again now.
Don't you think this is a little bit hyperbolic?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-gLOsDjE3E
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/08/28/the-republicans-newest-plan-to-derail-voting-rights/
In a similar manner to these guys, who also received the fixed penalty notice ?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/30/police-in-england-and-wales-break-up-illegal-raves-as-covid-fines-introduced
By refusing to pay the fine, does he get to put his case in court ?
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1300076079097548802
Although given that there are - what two weeks? - between the doses, any data is very, very preliminary at this stage.
And, of course, the first 30 million doses are earmarked for the UK and are due to be delivered by the end of September.
It's hard to see how the US could get more than a handful of million people vaccinated before the US election (if at all).
In any case, given how few people could get vaccinated in the near term, the whole thing is just a publicity show.
What was notable is that in the few states which are already 100% ‘voting by mail’, over half those votes are returned via drop boxes.
For the record, given all the dangers (in particular the risk of creating something that kills more people than the disease), it would be insane to approve a vaccine without proper testing.
Thank you.
https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/files/cov002pisages56-69yearsv9020jul20southpdf
It is just about possible that they have results by October, but given the drop in UK infections over the summer, only if they were remarkably quick in enrolling volunteers, and the vaccine is very effective ?
What does @Foxy think ?
That first stage has been reused four times now, which substantially lowers the cost of each mission, making space much more accessible for businesses and governments. The Starlink project could genuinely revolutionise human communications when it goes live next year.
... but after a bit of googling around, so did I. The Brazil trial is also single blinded:
https://apps.who.int/trialsearch/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=ISRCTN89951424
Reusable rockets plus $200k of fuel means launches more than order of magnitude cheaper than Ariane or the Russians - and possibly two orders of magnitude (yes really) cheaper than Boeing on a kg for kg basis.
And Good Morning to one and all.
Here’s Musk’s tweet about 100 launches:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1296158590646939649
With sensible fuel and re-usable rockets the cost of launches comes down dramatically, they're aiming for $1m/tonne into low earth orbit which is totally nuts. Each Shuttle launch used to cost a couple of $bn.
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