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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak still leads Starmer in “Best PM” polling but the gap is

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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Philip seems to be in denial.

    Telegraph says Johnson will be launching a campaign to get people into the office, one of the things will be saying it is easier to sack you if you WFH. This is a pathetic attempt at guilt tripping.

    Let's just stop all benefits and sack spongers
    How are you going to sack the unemployed 'spongers'?
    Stop benefits and they go back to work. Simples, love :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Ave_it said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ave_it said:

    I thought we were going to stop these briefings, now "go back to work or lose your job"?

    It's the only sensible way

    It's perfectly safe

    We don't need furlough or benefits anymore - people need to get back to work now

    It's up to employers whether or not they want their staff back in an office, not the goverment.
    The government needs to turn off the handouts - this will encourage employers to reach the right decision, the government should not be paying for people to have a 6 month + holiday.
    What do you think people who WFH have been doing? We haven't all been sat around claiming benefits, I've - luckily - held a job this entire time.

    Tell me why I should go back to the office
    You might have - most have been on the Netflix paid for by taxpayers!
    That's furlough, a seperate issue to WFH. Anyone WFH hasn't been on Netflix paid for by the taxpayer, they might have been on Netflix paid for by their employer but there's no taxpayer cost to that.
    'Separate' luv.

    Let's get people off furlough, welfare, UC and get them back to work
    ‘Ave you been at SeanT’s gin ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain the mechanism by which the state is going to get private companies to sack people who choose WFH? I'm not big on the idea of permanent remote working, but I don't see what power the government has to compel companies to sack those who choose it. This just seems like a completely stupid and unworkable policy idea.

    I get that shops, bars and restaurants are struggling in city centres without passing trade from office workers, unfortunately there is a new reality coming for everyone in those sectors.

    Surely sacking you for WFH is a lawsuit waiting to happen
    Maybe, at least if you're contractually entitled to it. If not then I don't know. I just think it doesn't make sense, really the government shouldn't be talking up the idea of mass sackings at all. It feels counter productive.

    I think what's happening is that the treasury is doing the same forecasting as the city and they have come to the same conclusion that the economy will only recover to about 96% of pre virus and anything from then onwards will need to be organic growth with new jobs created rather than old jobs being unmothballed. What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I thought toddlers weren't allowed on the Internet at this hour? Luckily kids will be back to school in a week or so

    Good news. Hope you will be adopting the social distancing in the reception class.

    Pity Starmer opposed children going to school until one of his flip flops.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited August 2020

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    That'll work......

    https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1299089302127869963?s=20

    Funny how, last time the SNP government raised marginal tax rates, tax take was less than expected....possibly because some higher rate tax payers moved....

    Don't they read Arthur Laffer's books in Scottish economics courses?
    Why would they bother?

    He's a man with who invented a curve with no scales, and that no one has ever proved to be valid.
    The Scots seem to have provided him with some good evidence this year.

    George Osborne did in 2011 too, cutting the top tax rate from a totemic 52% to 47% massively increased the returns.

    You got some evidence to support that assertion?

    Income tax revenue as a proportion of GDP fell every year from 2011 to 2016.
    Income tax revenue as a proportion of incomes, surely the important statistic, rose through the same period.

    I'll refer you to that oracle of capitalism, the Guardian:

    "In research underlining the dual nature of Britain’s income tax structure, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said above-inflation increases in the personal allowance to £12,500 a year meant 42% of adults paid no income tax.

    "The thinktank said the top 1% of all adults accounted for well over a third of income tax, adding that the tax and benefit system was progressive.

    "Meanwhile, the share of income tax paid by the top 1% of taxpayers – a smaller slice of the population because so many people pay no income tax – has risen from 24% of the total in 2007-08 on the eve of the financial crisis to 30% currently.
    “Unlike the increases in previous decades, this has not been driven by a rising income share at the top,” the thinktank said in a briefing paper. “Rather, it reflects policy reforms: there have been income tax rises for high-income individuals (the additional rate of income tax above £150,000, the withdrawal of the personal allowance above £100,000, substantial cuts in income tax relief for pension contributions, and a net real reduction in the higher-rate threshold), even while increases in the personal allowance have reduced or eliminated income tax for those with lower incomes.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/13/richest-britain-income-tax-revenues-institute-fiscal-studies
  • That is hilarious! Absolutely fantastic!

    Its clickbait idiots like Littlejohn that are behind this nonsense - I do not believe for a second the Government is until I see an official announcement from Hancock or Johnson or someone else. We've been getting the media trailing these stories for ages and they never go anywhere.

    Since I said if this does happen I'll oppose it, are you able to agree that if this supposed scheme doesn't start next week that it was media nonsense and not Government policy?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Good. But needs far more on Scranton. He needs the working class to switch and back him this time. He needs to reach out to those left behind small towns, because they have bought Trump's crap and they need a reason to dump him.
  • MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain the mechanism by which the state is going to get private companies to sack people who choose WFH? I'm not big on the idea of permanent remote working, but I don't see what power the government has to compel companies to sack those who choose it. This just seems like a completely stupid and unworkable policy idea.

    I get that shops, bars and restaurants are struggling in city centres without passing trade from office workers, unfortunately there is a new reality coming for everyone in those sectors.

    Even the Telegraph article isn't suggesting the state would do that.

    The article is saying that they would warn people of the risks. If a business eg has 60 staff 30 working in the office and 30 working from home, then they decide they need to restructure and go down to 30, then will they keep the 30 who've been going in or the thirty working from home? Its a stupid hypothetical and none of the Governments damn business.
    Going back to that YouGov survey earlier this evening...

    If you think your core vote is older people, then agitating for a return to the office is a popular/populist thing to do. Not to the extent of making it happen (because you can't and overall it's stupid), but as a noisy agitation. It makes the retired majors who read the Telegraph (does anyone else read the Telegraph these days?) stroke their chins and say to themselves "sound chap, that Johnson".

    It's headline chasing rather than doing good. In fact, breaking the tyranny of the London office would do more for levelling up the regions than anything the government plans, so it works against the stated Johnson-Cummings-Gove agenda. But does anyone expect anything better from this lot?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    This stuff about menacing home workers with the possibility of the sack is just Dom kite flying. I suspect we'll hear no more of it after tonight. One of his poorer efforts.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain the mechanism by which the state is going to get private companies to sack people who choose WFH? I'm not big on the idea of permanent remote working, but I don't see what power the government has to compel companies to sack those who choose it. This just seems like a completely stupid and unworkable policy idea.

    I get that shops, bars and restaurants are struggling in city centres without passing trade from office workers, unfortunately there is a new reality coming for everyone in those sectors.

    Surely sacking you for WFH is a lawsuit waiting to happen
    Maybe, at least if you're contractually entitled to it. If not then I don't know. I just think it doesn't make sense, really the government shouldn't be talking up the idea of mass sackings at all. It feels counter productive.

    I think what's happening is that the treasury is doing the same forecasting as the city and they have come to the same conclusion that the economy will only recover to about 96% of pre virus and anything from then onwards will need to be organic growth with new jobs created rather than old jobs being unmothballed. What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.
    As well as seeing what opportunities can be unleashed too.

    This may well see the death of some old jobs - many of which were unskilled and unproductive and notoriously hard to fill supposedly so I'm not seeing the issue if they go - but we should be looking to the future at new opportunities it can create.

    Could we finally be seeing productivity go up?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Could we finally be seeing productivity go up?

    Judging by the push to return to what we were all doing six months ago the answer is surely no.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I have a dream...

    To get as many 'off topics' as malcolmg.

    I'm getting there - a close race between me and CHB :lol:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain the mechanism by which the state is going to get private companies to sack people who choose WFH? I'm not big on the idea of permanent remote working, but I don't see what power the government has to compel companies to sack those who choose it. This just seems like a completely stupid and unworkable policy idea.

    I get that shops, bars and restaurants are struggling in city centres without passing trade from office workers, unfortunately there is a new reality coming for everyone in those sectors.

    Surely sacking you for WFH is a lawsuit waiting to happen
    Maybe, at least if you're contractually entitled to it. If not then I don't know. I just think it doesn't make sense, really the government shouldn't be talking up the idea of mass sackings at all. It feels counter productive.

    I think what's happening is that the treasury is doing the same forecasting as the city and they have come to the same conclusion that the economy will only recover to about 96% of pre virus and anything from then onwards will need to be organic growth with new jobs created rather than old jobs being unmothballed. What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.
    It's fairly clear that unemployment will rise sharply in the next few months. It's politically speaking just odd that the Government seems to be musing that the threat of mass sackings mightn't be a bad idea. People will associate the two.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited August 2020

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Yes, and work out what city centres are going look like with 25% less office workers even once things are back to normal. What does that mean for all of the services that are provisioned, rates, rents, employment and taxes generated. Do the 25% of people who won't come back to the office in any significant sense stop spending during the week? Do they spend more locally or do they splurge on the weekend either in the city centre or locally?

    I don't know the answers, but the government doesn't even seem to be asking the questions.
  • https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/27/go-back-work-risk-losing-job-major-drive-launched-get-people/

    Literally titled 'Go back to work or risk losing your job': Major drive launched to get people returning to the office
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    This stuff about menacing home workers with the possibility of the sack is just Dom kite flying. I suspect we'll hear no more of it after tonight. One of his poorer efforts.

    Who gains from continuing to WFH? Employees and employers saving large sums of money.
    Who loses out? City centre businesses and commercial property developers and landlords.
    Who donates heavily to the Tory Party and have grown fantastically wealthy on the back of a one way bet for decades?
    Why commercial property developers.
    Then it begins to makes sense.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Philip seems to be in denial.

    Telegraph says Johnson will be launching a campaign to get people into the office, one of the things will be saying it is easier to sack you if you WFH. This is a pathetic attempt at guilt tripping.

    Let's just stop all benefits and sack spongers
    How are you going to sack the unemployed 'spongers'?
    Stop benefits and they go back to work. Simples, love :lol:
    Arbeit Macht Frei reigns supreme!
  • FPT, you're most welcome for the bypass paywalls extension, I found it a year or so ago and I've used it since.

    Before it existed, I was working on a similar extension but this did everything I needed. I think it's quite simple under the hood, does some cookie clearing here, some user agent switching there but it works on all manner of sites.

    Anyway, glad I could help. I occasionally have uses :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    I don't want other people heading back to their offices, the roads are busy enough as it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    justin124 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Philip seems to be in denial.

    Telegraph says Johnson will be launching a campaign to get people into the office, one of the things will be saying it is easier to sack you if you WFH. This is a pathetic attempt at guilt tripping.

    Let's just stop all benefits and sack spongers
    How are you going to sack the unemployed 'spongers'?
    Stop benefits and they go back to work. Simples, love :lol:
    Arbeit Macht Frei reigns supreme!
    What is it with your weird obsession with the Nazis?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
  • glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    I think FTTH for all would be a better use of the money.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    fox327 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    We seem to have absent-mindedly elected a Government that feels it can tell employers what to do. We surveyed staff, found they overwhelmingly didn't want to go back to the office, so it's staying shut. Our decision is literally none of Ministers' business.
    When people work from home they may be personally better off by saving money on commuting. However, the economy as a whole tends to get smaller as a result, and this affects everyone. Working from home has consequences for society as well as employees and employers. The government already tells employers what to do, e.g. how much tax to pay.
    Well, it all seems a bit too Stalinist for me. Making people act against their own and their family's interest in order to pursue an economic theory and all that. We Corbynistas purse our lips at this left-wing adventurism.

    :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited August 2020

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    Definitely not. It's £56bn pissed away. LHR3 is dead as well.
  • MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    Definitely not. It's £56bn pissed away. LHR3 is dead as well.
    FTTH for all with that
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    Yes, it's much more about capacity and getting freight trains off fast passenger lines.

    Ditto LHR Runway 3, there's no public money in that, we just need to make sure the planning and CPO process goes smoothly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Anecdotally friend’s sister’s office is in Old St - told won’t be needed back in office until next year....and the lease is up in April. I suspect a lot of the government’s worry is more to do with commercial property values rather than sacked Pret employees.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    edited August 2020

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    Obsessed

    What do you think about binning Crossrail given the delays and cost to finish it?

    HS2 contracts have been awarded, its being built, it would cost more to abort now.

    It will last hundreds of years, well after we're all vaccinated.
  • I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240
    edited August 2020
    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Yes, and work out what city centres are going look like with 25% less office workers even once things are back to normal. What does that mean for all of the services that are provisioned, rates, rents, employment and taxes generated. Do the 25% of people who won't come back to the office in any significant sense stop spending during the week? Do they spend more locally or do they splurge on the weekend either in the city centre or locally?

    I don't know the answers, but the government doesn't even seem to be asking the questions.
    But who is there who can ask the right questions? You need a bright iconoclast near the top and an open listening culture at the very top.

    Unfortunately, whilst we have an iconoclast at the top, he's so busy that nobody else's questions can be heard over the sound of breaking icons. Besides, a lot of his thinking seems to have calcified a while back, and he appears not to have noticed the opportunities presented by the new situation.
  • I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
  • FPT, you're most welcome for the bypass paywalls extension, I found it a year or so ago and I've used it since.

    Before it existed, I was working on a similar extension but this did everything I needed. I think it's quite simple under the hood, does some cookie clearing here, some user agent switching there but it works on all manner of sites.

    Anyway, glad I could help. I occasionally have uses :)

    Do you know one that works for Android?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    Obsessed

    What do you think about binning Crossrail given the delays and cost to finish it?

    HS2 contracts have been awarded, its being built, it would cost more to abort now.

    It will last hundreds of years, well after we're all vaccinated.
    We can scrap HS2 for £10bn

    £100bn saved

    5% of government debt repaid! Yes!!

    Trains every 20 min to Manchester are enough :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Ave_it said:

    I have a dream...

    To get as many 'off topics' as malcolmg...

    If only you had his wit and charm.
  • Ave_it said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    What the government should be doing is seeing what these industries need to make sense of the new reality, not try and force people to live by the old one under threat of job losses.

    They should put on their thinking caps and ponder what new services may thrive when more people work from home, city and town centres are quieter but suburbs busier, less people commute and less of peoples lives are wasted commuting, and homes now have to serve as workplaces. Not "get on the train, to go to the office, so that Starbucks can keep going".
    Do you still build HS2?
    Obsessed

    What do you think about binning Crossrail given the delays and cost to finish it?

    HS2 contracts have been awarded, its being built, it would cost more to abort now.

    It will last hundreds of years, well after we're all vaccinated.
    We can scrap HS2 for £10bn

    £100bn saved

    5% of government debt repaid! Yes!!

    Trains every 20 min to Manchester are enough :lol:
    Not really.

    LOL @ when your preferred PM called it the perfect railway.
  • FPT, you're most welcome for the bypass paywalls extension, I found it a year or so ago and I've used it since.

    Before it existed, I was working on a similar extension but this did everything I needed. I think it's quite simple under the hood, does some cookie clearing here, some user agent switching there but it works on all manner of sites.

    Anyway, glad I could help. I occasionally have uses :)

    Do you know one that works for Android?
    Firefox for Android supports extensions doesn't it? Does this not work on there?
  • I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Above I said FTTH would be a better use of the money
  • dixiedean said:

    This stuff about menacing home workers with the possibility of the sack is just Dom kite flying. I suspect we'll hear no more of it after tonight. One of his poorer efforts.

    Who gains from continuing to WFH? Employees and employers saving large sums of money.
    Who loses out? City centre businesses and commercial property developers and landlords.
    Who donates heavily to the Tory Party and have grown fantastically wealthy on the back of a one way bet for decades?
    Why commercial property developers.
    Then it begins to makes sense.
    Who also loses out will be today's winners from WFH as companies realise that if the accounts department can work remotely from various homes scattered around the home counties, it can work remotely and cheaply from Bratislava.

    And their clients as confidential documents are sent to landfill because every home office has a printer but few have shredders.

    And their adult children about to graduate and discover their traineeships revolving from team to team, department to department, are not as successful remotely because they can't bond at lunch or the watercooler, or ask for advice in the corridor.

    And taxpayers who have to pay more to subsidise half-empty railways, and increased numbers on benefits, and a reduced tax base.

    I've been WFH for the last decade and won't deny its good points but recent converts need to look more closely.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Because crossrail is basically finished. Sadiq just seems to be completely screwing up the last bit of it. HS2 will draw money and investment away from the North and to London. Really what we need is to connect the Northern cities together properly, not to connect them to London. HS2 is a waste of £56bn for no economic gain. We don't have the money for it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Was in the Toon tonight. Miserable weather. Lashing with rain. Not an "eat out" night.
    Was eerily quiet. More like midnight on a Sunday/Monday.
    Almost no one over 30 out and about. Can see a lot of places not surviving the winter on those numbers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    "Get back in the office or you are fired"?

    Has the 1922 Committee caught up with BoZo at last?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1299078815973597184?s=20

    Am attending a Zoom with Rishi Sunak and IDS in early September
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Nigelb said:

    Ave_it said:

    I have a dream...

    To get as many 'off topics' as malcolmg...

    If only you had his wit and charm.
    You have obviously been on the Buckfast tonight :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Crossrail already exists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers
  • rcs1000 said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Crossrail already exists.
    Got your ticket across zone 1?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    dixiedean said:

    This stuff about menacing home workers with the possibility of the sack is just Dom kite flying. I suspect we'll hear no more of it after tonight. One of his poorer efforts.

    Who gains from continuing to WFH? Employees and employers saving large sums of money.
    Who loses out? City centre businesses and commercial property developers and landlords.
    Who donates heavily to the Tory Party and have grown fantastically wealthy on the back of a one way bet for decades?
    Why commercial property developers.
    Then it begins to makes sense.
    Who also loses out will be today's winners from WFH as companies realise that if the accounts department can work remotely from various homes scattered around the home counties, it can work remotely and cheaply from Bratislava.

    And their clients as confidential documents are sent to landfill because every home office has a printer but few have shredders.

    And their adult children about to graduate and discover their traineeships revolving from team to team, department to department, are not as successful remotely because they can't bond at lunch or the watercooler, or ask for advice in the corridor.

    And taxpayers who have to pay more to subsidise half-empty railways, and increased numbers on benefits, and a reduced tax base.

    I've been WFH for the last decade and won't deny its good points but recent converts need to look more closely.
    I agree, WFH a day a week as I did pre lockdown or even 2 days a week is fine, full time however is a different matter
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited August 2020
    Falwell got a $10.5m severance package ?
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/27/becki-falwell-affair-liberty-university-student-band-jerry-402559

    Christian charity, I guess...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    On topic, I think we've hit peak Rishi.

    He doesn't extend the furlough scheme he's going to become very unpopular very quickly.

    Furlough made sense in the spring and summer when we were in lockdown and businesses couldn't legally trade, but given that lockdown has been lifted now why is it still required?

    Surely (barring some extreme cases which maybe should be dealt with separately) any businesses still furloughing simply are failed businesses unlikely to reopen now?
    I know some focus groups taking place, and the view of plenty of voters is that the elite bailed out bankers, then anyone losing their jobs when furlough ends should also get bailed out.
    When populism collides head-first with the core Conservative ideology of capitalism.

    I wonder what will happen.
    Fusion
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Because crossrail is basically finished. Sadiq just seems to be completely screwing up the last bit of it. HS2 will draw money and investment away from the North and to London. Really what we need is to connect the Northern cities together properly, not to connect them to London. HS2 is a waste of £56bn for no economic gain. We don't have the money for it.
    Clearly the northern politicians and businesses are wrong and you know what is best for the northern economy.

    Love this SE based country where no one outside London could possibly know what is best for their local area.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    MaxPB said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Because crossrail is basically finished. Sadiq just seems to be completely screwing up the last bit of it. HS2 will draw money and investment away from the North and to London. Really what we need is to connect the Northern cities together properly, not to connect them to London. HS2 is a waste of £56bn for no economic gain. We don't have the money for it.
    Clearly the northern politicians and businesses are wrong and you know what is best for the northern economy.

    Love this SE based country where no one outside London could possibly know what is best for their local area.
    London produces 90% of the wealth.

    Gtr Manchester good for claiming on the benefits
  • Wasn't another £450m thrown at Crossrail recently to finish it off?

    Why not bin it and spend that money in Leeds on a tram network to level up the UK?

    Other than investing in the north simply cannot happen in the UK ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't want other people heading back to their offices, the roads are busy enough as it is.

    The roads were great back in May.

    This country would be a lot better with ten million fewer people.
  • Ave_it said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Because crossrail is basically finished. Sadiq just seems to be completely screwing up the last bit of it. HS2 will draw money and investment away from the North and to London. Really what we need is to connect the Northern cities together properly, not to connect them to London. HS2 is a waste of £56bn for no economic gain. We don't have the money for it.
    Clearly the northern politicians and businesses are wrong and you know what is best for the northern economy.

    Love this SE based country where no one outside London could possibly know what is best for their local area.
    London produces 90% of the wealth.

    Gtr Manchester good for claiming on the benefits
    Indeed

    So throw unlimited money at London and complain if any northerner ever want any investment
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Because crossrail is basically finished. Sadiq just seems to be completely screwing up the last bit of it. HS2 will draw money and investment away from the North and to London. Really what we need is to connect the Northern cities together properly, not to connect them to London. HS2 is a waste of £56bn for no economic gain. We don't have the money for it.
    Clearly the northern politicians and businesses are wrong and you know what is best for the northern economy.

    Love this SE based country where no one outside London could possibly know what is best for their local area.
    London produces 90% of the wealth.

    Gtr Manchester good for claiming on the benefits
    Indeed

    So throw unlimited money at London and complain if any northerner ever want any investment
    Its only fair. We pay the taxes. Don't need any of these 'northern railways'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Crossrail already exists.
    Got your ticket across zone 1?
    Could sell you one, but not entirely sure it's safe yet. Still wanna buy one?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Anyway enjoyed another night of fair minded social liberal debate on this site

    Looking forward to 3 Nov #MAGA2
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Sandpit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
    It'll be a median number, rather than a mean.

    Legal aid pays you about £100 to do some cases. And that will involve travelling to meet your client, preparation, going to court, waiting while the case before you goes over, and then your case. That also has to cover all your expenses.

    Criminal barristers are paid almost nothing by legal aid. But they do it in the hope that they will excel and end up with a lucrative private practice. In reality, most will drop out after a couple of years and go into civil or corporate work.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    Trump is now 30 out of 100 to win with 538 compared to 72 or 73 a few days ago.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't want other people heading back to their offices, the roads are busy enough as it is.

    The roads were great back in May.

    This country would be a lot better with ten million fewer people.
    Ten million fewer people would be paying back the national debt. There's a horrible spiral some parts of the get into, where falling population mean higher taxes for those that remain, which means even more people leave...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    I'm obsessed with FTTH for all! :)

    So why not bin Crossrail, use that money for broadband and invest in the north via HS2?
    Because crossrail is basically finished. Sadiq just seems to be completely screwing up the last bit of it. HS2 will draw money and investment away from the North and to London. Really what we need is to connect the Northern cities together properly, not to connect them to London. HS2 is a waste of £56bn for no economic gain. We don't have the money for it.
    Clearly the northern politicians and businesses are wrong and you know what is best for the northern economy.

    Love this SE based country where no one outside London could possibly know what is best for their local area.
    If they were any good then London and the SE wouldn't be the only part of the country that actually works properly. You lot go on and on about London this and London that, frankly we pay the bills, we keep the lights on in the rest of the country. It's the strength of London's financial sector that makes the UK any kind of global player. No one's stopping the North from developing world class industries and a slightly faster train connection to London which just extends the commuter belt a bit is going to make absolutely no difference.

    If you northerners stopped being bitter about our success and concentrated on your own matters you might actually improve your own lot.
  • FPT, you're most welcome for the bypass paywalls extension, I found it a year or so ago and I've used it since.

    Before it existed, I was working on a similar extension but this did everything I needed. I think it's quite simple under the hood, does some cookie clearing here, some user agent switching there but it works on all manner of sites.

    Anyway, glad I could help. I occasionally have uses :)

    Do you know one that works for Android?
    Firefox for Android supports extensions doesn't it? Does this not work on there?
    Good question. Downloaded Facebook, synced it to my account but it won't load this site for some reason. Hangs loading the comments on both vanilla and the main page.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    On topic, I think we've hit peak Rishi.

    He doesn't extend the furlough scheme he's going to become very unpopular very quickly.

    Furlough made sense in the spring and summer when we were in lockdown and businesses couldn't legally trade, but given that lockdown has been lifted now why is it still required?

    Surely (barring some extreme cases which maybe should be dealt with separately) any businesses still furloughing simply are failed businesses unlikely to reopen now?
    I know some focus groups taking place, and the view of plenty of voters is that the elite bailed out bankers, then anyone losing their jobs when furlough ends should also get bailed out.
    They didn't bail you out if you were a banker working for Lehmans and even the bailout was not indefinite and a loan the banks had to pay back
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Wasn't another £450m thrown at Crossrail recently to finish it off?

    Why not bin it and spend that money in Leeds on a tram network to level up the UK?

    Other than investing in the north simply cannot happen in the UK ?

    Because it's a bit stupid to spend billions on a project and then stop it just before it's about to be finished.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't another £450m thrown at Crossrail recently to finish it off?

    Why not bin it and spend that money in Leeds on a tram network to level up the UK?

    Other than investing in the north simply cannot happen in the UK ?

    Because it's a bit stupid to spend billions on a project and then stop it just before it's about to be finished.
    Agreed

    So no sensible person would ever suggesting binning HS2 after the billions have been spent on it?
  • HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    If WTO Brexit does turn out like the poll tax then Conservative backbenchers, including many Leavers, will have no problem swallowing a softer compromise.

    Again, a corollary of Cameron not forcing a commission to prescribe Brexit means that even the stalwarts of the ERG had no single, agreed outcome in mind, so a lot will be happy with whatever works and causes least pain.

    And Nigel Farage has repeatedly flopped at Westminster elections, and it is not as if a revived Ukip can make vast gains at the European elections we no longer participate in, so Farage poses no risk to Rishi or indeed Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited August 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
    It'll be a median number, rather than a mean.

    Legal aid pays you about £100 to do some cases. And that will involve travelling to meet your client, preparation, going to court, waiting while the case before you goes over, and then your case. That also has to cover all your expenses.

    Criminal barristers are paid almost nothing by legal aid. But they do it in the hope that they will excel and end up with a lucrative private practice. In reality, most will drop out after a couple of years and go into civil or corporate work.
    I believe the average criminal barrister earns about £70,000 actually but after travel costs and chambers rent etc that goes down to about £40,000 in real terms.

    £27,000 is the salary of those in practice in the early years and top criminal QCs earn several hundred thousand a year, even if that is not as much as the millions a year their QC counterparts at the commercial bar earn
  • HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    And that's Rishi's dilemma. To have clean enough hands to be convincing once the U turn has happened, but without incurring the wrath of those who remain loyal to Brexit. (Which might be where the Poll Tax analogy breaks down; by the end, that was almost totally friendless. Even if Brexit goes badly, quite a few will see that as a sign to go further along the freedom road.)

    Can he do it? I don't know, but he might be the only one who has a chance.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Trump is now 30 out of 100 to win with 538 compared to 72 or 73 a few days ago.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

    Trump was never 70 (per cent likely) to win -- that was Biden.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    If WTO Brexit does turn out like the poll tax then Conservative backbenchers, including many Leavers, will have no problem swallowing a softer compromise.

    Again, a corollary of Cameron not forcing a commission to prescribe Brexit means that even the stalwarts of the ERG had no single, agreed outcome in mind, so a lot will be happy with whatever works and causes least pain.

    And Nigel Farage has repeatedly flopped at Westminster elections, and it is not as if a revived Ukip can make vast gains at the European elections we no longer participate in, so Farage poses no risk to Rishi or indeed Boris.
    That depends, Leavers might accept some regulatory alignment for a trade deal, they would not accept free movement and lack of control of fishing waters and if it meant the latter then some would go Brexit Party again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Sounds like a dumb comparison to me given reasoning for the need for one vs the other.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't another £450m thrown at Crossrail recently to finish it off?

    Why not bin it and spend that money in Leeds on a tram network to level up the UK?

    Other than investing in the north simply cannot happen in the UK ?

    Because it's a bit stupid to spend billions on a project and then stop it just before it's about to be finished.
    Agreed

    So no sensible person would ever suggesting binning HS2 after the billions have been spent on it?
    There might be reasons to carry on with HS2 but sunk cost fallacy isn't amongst them
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited August 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    We seem to have absent-mindedly elected a Government that feels it can tell employers what to do. We surveyed staff, found they overwhelmingly didn't want to go back to the office, so it's staying shut. Our decision is literally none of Ministers' business.
    As a politician you will surely know it is common to comment on matters which are not their responsibility, and as a politician I'd bet you have been personally guilty of commenting on issues which are not of government or political responsibility.

    Government saying what it would like is ok. Demanding is something else.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    If WTO Brexit does turn out like the poll tax then Conservative backbenchers, including many Leavers, will have no problem swallowing a softer compromise.

    Again, a corollary of Cameron not forcing a commission to prescribe Brexit means that even the stalwarts of the ERG had no single, agreed outcome in mind, so a lot will be happy with whatever works and causes least pain.

    And Nigel Farage has repeatedly flopped at Westminster elections, and it is not as if a revived Ukip can make vast gains at the European elections we no longer participate in, so Farage poses no risk to Rishi or indeed Boris.
    That depends, Leavers might accept some regulatory alignment for a trade deal, they would not accept free movement and lack of control of fishing waters and if it meant the latter then some would go Brexit Party again
    The only prominent Leaver who gives a damn about fishing is Michael Gove. And the Brexit Party, even in its heyday, did nothing at Westminster. We have left the EU; that will be enough for most, and there is no consensus as to what should happen next.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    I'd prefer Priti Patel to be next PM.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
    It'll be a median number, rather than a mean.

    Legal aid pays you about £100 to do some cases. And that will involve travelling to meet your client, preparation, going to court, waiting while the case before you goes over, and then your case. That also has to cover all your expenses.

    Criminal barristers are paid almost nothing by legal aid. But they do it in the hope that they will excel and end up with a lucrative private practice. In reality, most will drop out after a couple of years and go into civil or corporate work.
    I believe the average criminal barrister earns about £70,000 actually but after travel costs and chambers rent etc that goes down to about £40,000 in real terms.

    £27,000 is the salary of those in practice in the early years and top criminal QCs earn several hundred thousand a year, even if that is not as much as the millions a year their QC counterparts at the commercial bar earn
    I don't think we disagree at all. Top criminal barristers will easily make £300,000+, because they'll be charging their clients £1,500/hour.

    I think your £40,000 is probably the mean income, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to find that £27,000 is the median - simply there are a lot of people at the bottom of the pile doing shoplifting in Uxbridge Magostrates Court on legal aid, and not a lot of people in the Old Bailey earning the big bucks.

    That being said... I think you are right that it's misleading to use the median number rather than the mean.
  • kle4 said:

    Sounds like a dumb comparison to me given reasoning for the need for one vs the other.
    From the other side, there have been hardly any raves but there will be, what, over 100,000 gatherings of 30+ in secondary schools every weekday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    If WTO Brexit does turn out like the poll tax then Conservative backbenchers, including many Leavers, will have no problem swallowing a softer compromise.

    Again, a corollary of Cameron not forcing a commission to prescribe Brexit means that even the stalwarts of the ERG had no single, agreed outcome in mind, so a lot will be happy with whatever works and causes least pain.

    And Nigel Farage has repeatedly flopped at Westminster elections, and it is not as if a revived Ukip can make vast gains at the European elections we no longer participate in, so Farage poses no risk to Rishi or indeed Boris.
    That depends, Leavers might accept some regulatory alignment for a trade deal, they would not accept free movement and lack of control of fishing waters and if it meant the latter then some would go Brexit Party again
    The only prominent Leaver who gives a damn about fishing is Michael Gove. And the Brexit Party, even in its heyday, did nothing at Westminster. We have left the EU; that will be enough for most, and there is no consensus as to what should happen next.
    Lots of voters in lots of marginal Tory seats with fishing ports from Moray to Grimsby to Hastings to St Ives certainly do give a damn about fishing.

    Most of the Red Wall also gives a damn about free movement, leave both exactly the same as when we were in the EU and the Tories can kiss those seats and their majority goodbye, voters there will go Labour, LD and Brexit Party in enough numbers for the Tories to lose
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
    It'll be a median number, rather than a mean.

    Legal aid pays you about £100 to do some cases. And that will involve travelling to meet your client, preparation, going to court, waiting while the case before you goes over, and then your case. That also has to cover all your expenses.

    Criminal barristers are paid almost nothing by legal aid. But they do it in the hope that they will excel and end up with a lucrative private practice. In reality, most will drop out after a couple of years and go into civil or corporate work.
    I believe the average criminal barrister earns about £70,000 actually but after travel costs and chambers rent etc that goes down to about £40,000 in real terms.

    £27,000 is the salary of those in practice in the early years and top criminal QCs earn several hundred thousand a year, even if that is not as much as the millions a year their QC counterparts at the commercial bar earn
    I don't think we disagree at all. Top criminal barristers will easily make £300,000+, because they'll be charging their clients £1,500/hour.

    I think your £40,000 is probably the mean income, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to find that £27,000 is the median - simply there are a lot of people at the bottom of the pile doing shoplifting in Uxbridge Magostrates Court on legal aid, and not a lot of people in the Old Bailey earning the big bucks.

    That being said... I think you are right that it's misleading to use the median number rather than the mean.
    The secret barrister has many worthy things to say, but it doesnt mean they are above being selective to make their points.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
    It'll be a median number, rather than a mean.

    Legal aid pays you about £100 to do some cases. And that will involve travelling to meet your client, preparation, going to court, waiting while the case before you goes over, and then your case. That also has to cover all your expenses.

    Criminal barristers are paid almost nothing by legal aid. But they do it in the hope that they will excel and end up with a lucrative private practice. In reality, most will drop out after a couple of years and go into civil or corporate work.
    I believe the average criminal barrister earns about £70,000 actually but after travel costs and chambers rent etc that goes down to about £40,000 in real terms.

    £27,000 is the salary of those in practice in the early years and top criminal QCs earn several hundred thousand a year, even if that is not as much as the millions a year their QC counterparts at the commercial bar earn
    I don't think we disagree at all. Top criminal barristers will easily make £300,000+, because they'll be charging their clients £1,500/hour.

    I think your £40,000 is probably the mean income, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to find that £27,000 is the median - simply there are a lot of people at the bottom of the pile doing shoplifting in Uxbridge Magostrates Court on legal aid, and not a lot of people in the Old Bailey earning the big bucks.

    That being said... I think you are right that it's misleading to use the median number rather than the mean.
    If it is not a normal distribution, and from what you say, it is not, then either measure is potentially misleading but here the median is probably better. It is a bit like asking what is the average income of footballers: there is such a gap between the premiership and the part-time leagues that the question becomes meaningless.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited August 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    If WTO Brexit does turn out like the poll tax then Conservative backbenchers, including many Leavers, will have no problem swallowing a softer compromise.

    Again, a corollary of Cameron not forcing a commission to prescribe Brexit means that even the stalwarts of the ERG had no single, agreed outcome in mind, so a lot will be happy with whatever works and causes least pain.

    And Nigel Farage has repeatedly flopped at Westminster elections, and it is not as if a revived Ukip can make vast gains at the European elections we no longer participate in, so Farage poses no risk to Rishi or indeed Boris.
    That depends, Leavers might accept some regulatory alignment for a trade deal, they would not accept free movement and lack of control of fishing waters and if it meant the latter then some would go Brexit Party again
    The only prominent Leaver who gives a damn about fishing is Michael Gove. And the Brexit Party, even in its heyday, did nothing at Westminster. We have left the EU; that will be enough for most, and there is no consensus as to what should happen next.
    Lots of voters in lots of marginal Tory seats with fishing ports from Moray to Grimsby to Hastings to St Ives certainly do give a damn about fishing.

    Most of the Red Wall also gives a damn about free movement, leave both exactly the same as when we were in the EU and the Tories can kiss those seats and their majority goodbye, voters there will go Labour, LD and Brexit Party in enough numbers for the Tories to lose
    So don't call it free movement. No-one knows what it means and immigration will continue anyway. Just find a new name, like Michael Heseltine coined the council tax.

    ETA as an aside, is the EU even asking for free movement?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't another £450m thrown at Crossrail recently to finish it off?

    Why not bin it and spend that money in Leeds on a tram network to level up the UK?

    Other than investing in the north simply cannot happen in the UK ?

    Because it's a bit stupid to spend billions on a project and then stop it just before it's about to be finished.
    Agreed

    So no sensible person would ever suggesting binning HS2 after the billions have been spent on it?
    less than 10% of total cost and if wfh takes off you will have ample capacity on current lines where as our internet infrastructure is in a parlous state
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited August 2020
    Biden 1.9 / 1.91
    Trump 2.14 / 2.16

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    47% implied chance.
  • FOM fudge seems the most unlikely thing that any Tory would capitulate on. I think fishing and state aid will be capitulated
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    FOM fudge seems the most unlikely thing that any Tory would capitulate on. I think fishing and state aid will be capitulated

    State aid maybe, fishing not, too many Tory MPs now represent fishing ports
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If we go to WTO terms Brexit and it turns out to be Boris' poll tax then Sunak would fancy himself as Major to Starmer's Kinnock and Boris' Thatcher but he would have to be able to get a softer Brexit passed his party and Leavers

    If WTO Brexit does turn out like the poll tax then Conservative backbenchers, including many Leavers, will have no problem swallowing a softer compromise.

    Again, a corollary of Cameron not forcing a commission to prescribe Brexit means that even the stalwarts of the ERG had no single, agreed outcome in mind, so a lot will be happy with whatever works and causes least pain.

    And Nigel Farage has repeatedly flopped at Westminster elections, and it is not as if a revived Ukip can make vast gains at the European elections we no longer participate in, so Farage poses no risk to Rishi or indeed Boris.
    That depends, Leavers might accept some regulatory alignment for a trade deal, they would not accept free movement and lack of control of fishing waters and if it meant the latter then some would go Brexit Party again
    The only prominent Leaver who gives a damn about fishing is Michael Gove. And the Brexit Party, even in its heyday, did nothing at Westminster. We have left the EU; that will be enough for most, and there is no consensus as to what should happen next.
    Lots of voters in lots of marginal Tory seats with fishing ports from Moray to Grimsby to Hastings to St Ives certainly do give a damn about fishing.

    Most of the Red Wall also gives a damn about free movement, leave both exactly the same as when we were in the EU and the Tories can kiss those seats and their majority goodbye, voters there will go Labour, LD and Brexit Party in enough numbers for the Tories to lose
    So don't call it free movement. No-one knows what it means and immigration will continue anyway. Just find a new name, like Michael Heseltine coined the council tax.

    ETA as an aside, is the EU even asking for free movement?
    Immigration will not continue the same as before as there will be a points system to replace free movement. Though yes we can get a FTA without free movement but not EEA.

  • Andy_JS said:

    Biden 1.9 / 1.91
    Trump 2.14 / 2.16

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    47% implied chance.

    The interesting (and puzzling) comparison is between the named winners market and the parties market. There is a Biden premium because the market thinks he might be replaced before November but oddly, the opposite is true of Trump. I cannot explain it.

    Biden 1.9
    Dems 1.85
    but
    Trump 2.14
    GOP 2.16
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    HYUFD said:

    FOM fudge seems the most unlikely thing that any Tory would capitulate on. I think fishing and state aid will be capitulated

    State aid maybe, fishing not, too many Tory MPs now represent fishing ports
    The thing is, even if we get complete control of our fishing waters, I don't see how it works for British fishermen. Ultimately, our cost of operations is higher than other peoples' because ours ships are smaller (which is why British fishermen sold their quotas to Spaniards).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden 1.9 / 1.91
    Trump 2.14 / 2.16

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

    47% implied chance.

    The interesting (and puzzling) comparison is between the named winners market and the parties market. There is a Biden premium because the market thinks he might be replaced before November but oddly, the opposite is true of Trump. I cannot explain it.

    Biden 1.9
    Dems 1.85
    but
    Trump 2.14
    GOP 2.16
    The way people bet isn't always rational, to put it mildly.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited August 2020
    Following the discussion in the previous thread re: where is the north, I did a bit of doodling.

    If you divide the UK into thirds based on constituency populations and boundaries, and OS grid north, this is what you get. It seems Hendon is in the Midlands.

    Strangley enough, the line delineating the "North" is where a lot of people put it. Sheffield is North, but only just. Same for Liverpool.

    Shading is based on population density. Each primary colour has roughly the same population total.


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Following the discussion in the previous thread re: where is the north, I did a bit of doodling.

    If you divide the UK into thirds based on constituency populations and boundaries, and OS grid north, this is what you get. It seems Hendon is in the Midlands.

    Strangley enough, the line delineating the "North" is where a lot of people put it. Sheffield is North, but only just. Same for Liverpool.

    Shading is based on population density.


    I live next to the Trent and it's definitely the Midlands here, not the North.
  • novanova Posts: 692
    edited August 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108590100373506

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1299108643850391561

    The average take-home pay of a criminal barrister is £27k - really? Or is it that per month rather than per year?
    It'll be a median number, rather than a mean.

    Legal aid pays you about £100 to do some cases. And that will involve travelling to meet your client, preparation, going to court, waiting while the case before you goes over, and then your case. That also has to cover all your expenses.

    Criminal barristers are paid almost nothing by legal aid. But they do it in the hope that they will excel and end up with a lucrative private practice. In reality, most will drop out after a couple of years and go into civil or corporate work.
    I believe the average criminal barrister earns about £70,000 actually but after travel costs and chambers rent etc that goes down to about £40,000 in real terms.

    £27,000 is the salary of those in practice in the early years and top criminal QCs earn several hundred thousand a year, even if that is not as much as the millions a year their QC counterparts at the commercial bar earn
    I don't think we disagree at all. Top criminal barristers will easily make £300,000+, because they'll be charging their clients £1,500/hour.

    I think your £40,000 is probably the mean income, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to find that £27,000 is the median - simply there are a lot of people at the bottom of the pile doing shoplifting in Uxbridge Magostrates Court on legal aid, and not a lot of people in the Old Bailey earning the big bucks.

    That being said... I think you are right that it's misleading to use the median number rather than the mean.
    Median makes more sense if there are a small number of people earning huge amounts, surely?

    Bear in mind that it's "take home pay" the Secret Barrister is referring to. So, 27k becomes 35k before tax. Now, would they be deducting pension payments to get that take home figure? That might move £27k take home, to nearer £40k gross.
  • Following the discussion in the previous thread re: where is the north, I did a bit of doodling.

    If you divide the UK into thirds based on constituency populations and boundaries, and OS grid north, this is what you get. It seems Hendon is in the Midlands.

    Strangley enough, the line delineating the "North" is where a lot of people put it. Sheffield is North, but only just. Same for Liverpool.

    Shading is based on population density. Each primary colour has roughly the same population total.


    That is not right because "the north" and so on have separate meanings in Scotland, England and Wales. No-one uses the terms UK-wide.
This discussion has been closed.