It could be argued that it's been the most likely outcome since June 2016. It certainly has since December 2019.
Each side thinks that it is incumbent upon the other to budge towards its position, and each side also thinks it has more to lose by giving ground than it has to gain from an agreement.
Britain has got more to lose by giving ground. If people now think that No Deal is a realistic prospect then that is great news and a sign our negotiators are doing a fantastic job, nobody ever thought it was realistic under calamity May.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
Hurricane Laura is expected to cause a "unsurvivable" storm surge, extreme winds and flash floods as it hits the US, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says.
Laura was upgraded to a Category 4 storm as it approached the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday.
The NHC warned local residents to "rush" to complete preparations.
Half a million have been told to leave. Laura and another storm, Marco, earlier hit the Caribbean, killing 24.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
If you were to remove "until September" from that final sentence then it might be closer to the truth.
He will try and fly in at the last minute and do something, as he did last year.
He's a bullshitter in chief, so I expect him to make concessions on state aid, the EU to compromise a bit on fish, and a deal done at the 11th hour.
This could end up getting voted through the EU and UK parliament in the week before Christmas.
Only hasn't it got to go through about 76 assorted national and regional parliaments all over the EU as well?
That as well. In a well-run world, the deal (or lack of one) would have been finalised, and millions of people and businesses in the UK, and the continuing EU would be working out what they need to do in January.
Either way, it's as if the UK doesn't want this to work...
In a well-run world people use the time available to them and compromise when they need to do so.
What you are describing isn't a well-run world, its a fictitious utopia worthy of Thomas More. The only way to get this signed off prematurely is if we just roll over, play dead and sign on to whatever the EU wants.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
The compromise was devolution to Stormont, something the EU had ruled out.
Differences between the UK and NI were something all parties even the DUP had agreed to so long as Stormont consented. Boris's genius was demanding Stormont's ongoing consent to any compromise, which the EU had refused to countenance previously.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
Hurricane Laura is expected to cause a "unsurvivable" storm surge, extreme winds and flash floods as it hits the US, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says.
Laura was upgraded to a Category 4 storm as it approached the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday.
The NHC warned local residents to "rush" to complete preparations.
Half a million have been told to leave. Laura and another storm, Marco, earlier hit the Caribbean, killing 24.
So is trump marshaling resources Ready to help out in what will be a disaster zone or is he to busy sending in over armed and over equipped federal agents in to intimidate protestors and incite them to more violence?
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
It nld'eeds political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Plus Johnson needn't a win last year because Parliament wouldn't approve No Deal and he needed a Deal to show that it was Parliament that was the issue and why we needed a new Parliament. Going into an election pledging No Deal would have been far riskier, whereas going into an election saying "look I have a deal and Parliament still won't let Brexit happen" is a different kettle of fish.
That's not the case now. There's no election for four more years and Parliament is totally different now. He doesn't need to come back with something to offer Grieve.
First it was policemen. Then it was newsreaders. Then politicians, then prime ministers who were younger than me. But now I've just seen that the First Minister is younger than my son! I'm going to have to lie down .. Otoh I received a super 4m tree-lopper today, so am feeling quite young myself after lots of cathartic pruning.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
Hogan also seemed to treat Ireland's rules with more contempt than Cummings did here. Wilfully breaking self isolation to go to a golf dinner is unforgivable, a slightly higher level than Cummings' actions in my view.
Cummings didn't pose a threat to anyone else other than his immediate family
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
Canadian firms should be able to own UK fishing licences but they should buy them off the UK government or companies that originally got the licence from the UK goernment.
The issue is that UK fish are being granted out by other countries governments. That is why all licences for UK waters should be nul and void and a new scheme created from scratch with 100% of UK fish being licensed out by the UK government.
As this is going to be the Nighthawks thread, something completely offtopic. One of the most amazing and inspirational 40 second videos I’ve ever seen.
A few years ago, in the US the Americans with Disabilities Act said that major events should have a sign language interpreter for the hard of hearing. Sign language interpreters started appearing at speeches and concerts.
A small group, of perhaps half a dozen such interpreters, deduced to focus on music concerts, and adapted American Sign Language (ASL) to mimic the music being played as well as the lyrics being sung. This small group of ASL interpreters now work for many artists and promoters across America, signing songs for the deaf at concerts.
Deaf people can feel the vibrations of a concert, and the new ASL helps them understand the instruments and notes played, so they can follow along with the rest of the crowd.
So, here we go. Meet Holly Maniatty, rapper Eminem’s sign language interpreter!
A couple of videos for those who find this interesting. youtube.com/watch?v=0iDAkEpCmBs <—- a full interpretation of the same song in a studio. youtube.com/watch?v=EuD2iNVMS_4 <—- 5 minute talk on the work done to update ASL for music performances.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
He's not going to sign up to EEA.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
I fear Hurricane Laura's impacts will dominate the news cycle and it will be fascinating to see Trump's response. I suspect he will be down there as soon as possible once the storm has passed.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
I fear Hurricane Laura's impacts will dominate the news cycle and it will be fascinating to see Trump's response. I suspect he will be down there as soon as possible once the storm has passed.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
I agree.
Caving in is much more difficult than last time for similar reasons. As I've mentioned before, it's impossible, too, for Johnson to avoid electoral damage this time either way.
EEA may resurrect the ghost of Farage, reports of the death of whom I think in that situation would be greatly exaggerated, and a limited deal, with more limited compromises, will inevitably bring in more economic consequences, going on to damage the enthusiasms of Tory business-minded voters.
Last year he could cave in and win on gestures because the specifics were apparently postponed until some indefinite future for many voters ; not this time round.
That article doesn’t give the full picture either, as global harvests are down (admittedly only by 0.5% and from a record year last year) so grain for import is going to be scarce.
There might, however, be one faint silver lining. If we leave transition with no FTA, we can of course suspend all tariffs on imported wheat. Which might actually deflate prices given CAP keeps them artificially high.
Otherwise, we could be in for a very nasty bout of stagflation this winter.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
I agree.
Caving in is much more difficult than last time for similar reasons. As I've mentioned before, it's impossible, too, for Johnson to avoid electoral damage this time either way.
EEA may resurrect the ghost of Farage, reports of the death of whom I think in that situation would be greatly exaggerated, and a limited deal, with more limited compromises, will inevitably bring in more economic consequences, going on to damage the enthusiasms of Tory business-minded voters.
Last year he could cave in and win on gestures because the specifics were apparently postponed until some indefinite future, for many voters ; not this time round.
There is a real risk though - is there not - that upon this deal Brexit becomes something concrete and that's going to annoy even a few people
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
He's not going to sign up to EEA.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
Quite possibly, but the EU have consistently overplayed their (strong) hand for over 4 years, firstly spending till 10.01 pm in Dec 12th trying to get the referendum reversed, and now seemingly still misunderstanding the UK’s motivations, now its Govt has a whopping majority ( see Barnier continually referring to the Political Declaration and what he thought it meant).
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
Quite right. There’s a great place (plaice? Sorry!), in Cardiff market. I experiment with seafood types as often as I’m down there.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
We don't know what the detail is behind the scenes.
I can't work out what the big deal is about state aid and fish, but then again I'm not party to all the discussions.
I could read the draft EU and UK texts in full and try and work it out I suppose..
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
He's not going to sign up to EEA.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
Perhaps, but if he goes too far then Parliament is bound to expose any such flaws - and we should not discount the possibility that enough Tory MPs rebel to bring down any agreement.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
He's not going to sign up to EEA.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
Quite possibly, but the EU have consistently overplayed their (strong) hand for over 4 years, firstly spending till 10.01 pm in Dec 12th trying to get the referendum reversed, and now seemingly still misunderstanding the UK’s motivations, now its Govt has a whopping majority ( see Barnier continually referring to the Political Declaration and what he thought it meant).
You can see that Barnier is getting frustrated now. He could play May and Robbins (sorry for calling him Roberts earlier) like a fiddle, but now the moves he mastered just aren't working anymore.
Quite like Starmer yup, think he'd be a better PM than Johnson
Very likely, but we’d still be faced with the likes of RLB, Burgon, a revived Pidcock parachuted into a safe seat doubtless, Butler, Lloyd Moyle and their ilk that exist behind Starmer.
There’s your issue. The Govt is in many respects a shambles ( though it is dealing with the mother of all Black Swans in fairness), but though Starmer is unlikely to keep many awake at night and is highly plausible as PM, four years of headbanging antics from Labour are not undone and forgotten about in a trice.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
I agree.
Caving in is much more difficult than last time for similar reasons. As I've mentioned before, it's impossible, too, for Johnson to avoid electoral damage this time either way.
EEA may resurrect the ghost of Farage, reports of the death of whom I think in that situation would be greatly exaggerated, and a limited deal, with more limited compromises, will inevitably bring in more economic consequences, going on to damage the enthusiasms of Tory business-minded voters.
Last year he could cave in and win on gestures because the specifics were apparently postponed until some indefinite future for many voters ; not this time round.
Ultimately he could screw the DUP because he didn't need their votes.
Quite like Starmer yup, think he'd be a better PM than Johnson
Very likely, but we’d still be faced with the likes of RLB, Burgon, a revived Pidcock parachuted into a safe seat doubtless, Butler, Lloyd Moyle and their ilk that exist behind Starmer.
There’s your issue. The Govt is in many respects a shambles ( though it is dealing with the mother of all Black Swans in fairness), but though Starmer is unlikely to keep many awake at night and is highly plausible as PM, four years of headbanging antics from Labour are not undone and forgotten about in a trice.
I completely agree, Keir needs to get a grip ASAP. I believe EHRC will give him grounds to do that
Quite like Starmer yup, think he'd be a better PM than Johnson
Very likely, but we’d still be faced with the likes of RLB, Burgon, a revived Pidcock parachuted into a safe seat doubtless, Butler, Lloyd Moyle and their ilk that exist behind Starmer.
There’s your issue. The Govt is in many respects a shambles ( though it is dealing with the mother of all Black Swans in fairness), but though Starmer is unlikely to keep many awake at night and is highly plausible as PM, four years of headbanging antics from Labour are not undone and forgotten about in a trice.
I completely agree, Keir needs to get a grip ASAP. I believe EHRC will give him grounds to do that
If Keir expels some big names then that will underline that he really is different.
It may not be enough to make him PM, it wasn't enough for Kinnock who did that too, but it would be a big start.
Kinnock had the testicular fortitude to do it, we will see soon if Starmer does.
Quite like Starmer yup, think he'd be a better PM than Johnson
Very likely, but we’d still be faced with the likes of RLB, Burgon, a revived Pidcock parachuted into a safe seat doubtless, Butler, Lloyd Moyle and their ilk that exist behind Starmer.
There’s your issue. The Govt is in many respects a shambles ( though it is dealing with the mother of all Black Swans in fairness), but though Starmer is unlikely to keep many awake at night and is highly plausible as PM, four years of headbanging antics from Labour are not undone and forgotten about in a trice.
I completely agree, Keir needs to get a grip ASAP. I believe EHRC will give him grounds to do that
His only hope is to force a split that takes the nutters and the loony CLPs out of the Labour Party into a new socialist nirvana. If they are still there at the next election he has no chance.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
Quite like Starmer yup, think he'd be a better PM than Johnson
Very likely, but we’d still be faced with the likes of RLB, Burgon, a revived Pidcock parachuted into a safe seat doubtless, Butler, Lloyd Moyle and their ilk that exist behind Starmer.
There’s your issue. The Govt is in many respects a shambles ( though it is dealing with the mother of all Black Swans in fairness), but though Starmer is unlikely to keep many awake at night and is highly plausible as PM, four years of headbanging antics from Labour are not undone and forgotten about in a trice.
I completely agree, Keir needs to get a grip ASAP. I believe EHRC will give him grounds to do that
If Keir expels some big names then that will underline that he really is different.
It may not be enough to make him PM, it wasn't enough for Kinnock who did that too, but it would be a big start.
Kinnock had the testicular fortitude to do it, we will see soon if Starmer does.
As I've mentioned before, he can't do that. Kinnock expelled a tiny but noisy fringe ; the present Labour membership is at least 50% Left, comprised not only of the 80s machine-politics lefties of well-known conservative caricature, but also a number of more flexible and less grizzled younger people.
That article doesn’t give the full picture either, as global harvests are down (admittedly only by 0.5% and from a record year last year) so grain for import is going to be scarce.
There might, however, be one faint silver lining. If we leave transition with no FTA, we can of course suspend all tariffs on imported wheat. Which might actually deflate prices given CAP keeps them artificially high.
Otherwise, we could be in for a very nasty bout of stagflation this winter.
Wheat yields are well down, and prices up.
Good video explaining the situation from a farmers point of view, as he raced to get the harvest in before last week’s rain.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
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Hope it refloats well.
FPT Britain has got more to lose by giving ground. If people now think that No Deal is a realistic prospect then that is great news and a sign our negotiators are doing a fantastic job, nobody ever thought it was realistic under calamity May.
See posts 1,233,433 to 2,343,454 on this site for details.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
That's quite a... errr... change.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53921285
Hurricane Laura is expected to cause a "unsurvivable" storm surge, extreme winds and flash floods as it hits the US, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says.
Laura was upgraded to a Category 4 storm as it approached the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday.
The NHC warned local residents to "rush" to complete preparations.
Half a million have been told to leave. Laura and another storm, Marco, earlier hit the Caribbean, killing 24.
So in a year where the RNC really seems a family affair, even the speaker with a name that isn't Trump still is related somehow.
What you are describing isn't a well-run world, its a fictitious utopia worthy of Thomas More. The only way to get this signed off prematurely is if we just roll over, play dead and sign on to whatever the EU wants.
If the violence continues, look how terrible the Democratic run cities are, they're all in flames.
If it ends, look I solved the problem while the Democratic run cities did nothing.
I really fear for America if we get four more years of this.
Differences between the UK and NI were something all parties even the DUP had agreed to so long as Stormont consented. Boris's genius was demanding Stormont's ongoing consent to any compromise, which the EU had refused to countenance previously.
Ah, Robbins
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
That's not the case now. There's no election for four more years and Parliament is totally different now. He doesn't need to come back with something to offer Grieve.
Otoh I received a super 4m tree-lopper today, so am feeling quite young myself after lots of cathartic pruning.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters...
Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies?
Does this include vessel tonnage limits?
(If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs)
What about boats wet leased from foreign firms?
Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
The issue is that UK fish are being granted out by other countries governments. That is why all licences for UK waters should be nul and void and a new scheme created from scratch with 100% of UK fish being licensed out by the UK government.
The problem is the white supremacist in question thinks of himself as the definition of armed militia.
He thought he was on the same side as the police and the army that Trump wants to send in
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1298709365449355270?s=20
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
A few years ago, in the US the Americans with Disabilities Act said that major events should have a sign language interpreter for the hard of hearing. Sign language interpreters started appearing at speeches and concerts.
A small group, of perhaps half a dozen such interpreters, deduced to focus on music concerts, and adapted American Sign Language (ASL) to mimic the music being played as well as the lyrics being sung. This small group of ASL interpreters now work for many artists and promoters across America, signing songs for the deaf at concerts.
Deaf people can feel the vibrations of a concert, and the new ASL helps them understand the instruments and notes played, so they can follow along with the rest of the crowd.
So, here we go. Meet Holly Maniatty, rapper Eminem’s sign language interpreter!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=VFRXaif1ewc
A couple of videos for those who find this interesting.
youtube.com/watch?v=0iDAkEpCmBs <—- a full interpretation of the same song in a studio.
youtube.com/watch?v=EuD2iNVMS_4 <—- 5 minute talk on the work done to update ASL for music performances.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
Trump and his supporters: Why won't blue cities stop this violence?
We’re 50/50 no deal or deal in my view.
I do believe he will capitulate though
Yeah yeah "but he has!" and yeah yeah "but it's the feds not the protestors!" but that's not good enough and he has an election to win.
The nomination race is now over, so he needs to lead his base as he fights for the general.
Caving in is much more difficult than last time for similar reasons. As I've mentioned before, it's impossible, too, for Johnson to avoid electoral damage this time either way.
EEA may resurrect the ghost of Farage, reports of the death of whom I think in that situation would be greatly exaggerated, and a limited deal, with more limited compromises, will inevitably bring in more economic consequences, going on to damage the enthusiasms of Tory business-minded voters.
Last year he could cave in and win on gestures because the specifics were apparently postponed until some indefinite future for many voters ; not this time round.
Bread price may rise after dire UK wheat harvest
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53921121
That article doesn’t give the full picture either, as global harvests are down (admittedly only by 0.5% and from a record year last year) so grain for import is going to be scarce.
There might, however, be one faint silver lining. If we leave transition with no FTA, we can of course suspend all tariffs on imported wheat. Which might actually deflate prices given CAP keeps them artificially high.
Otherwise, we could be in for a very nasty bout of stagflation this winter.
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
I can't work out what the big deal is about state aid and fish, but then again I'm not party to all the discussions.
I could read the draft EU and UK texts in full and try and work it out I suppose..
This is about campaigning and getting the tone right, and showing people what sort of leader he'd be.
You're not who he has to convince. You need to see if from the point of view of a fence sitter.
POBWAS.
There’s your issue. The Govt is in many respects a shambles ( though it is dealing with the mother of all Black Swans in fairness), but though Starmer is unlikely to keep many awake at night and is highly plausible as PM, four years of headbanging antics from Labour are not undone and forgotten about in a trice.
He can't screw the English and Welsh Tories.
I hope you are not calling me a moron 😈
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
It may not be enough to make him PM, it wasn't enough for Kinnock who did that too, but it would be a big start.
Kinnock had the testicular fortitude to do it, we will see soon if Starmer does.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
He really does not look very well?
We're AL-RIGHT!!!
Good video explaining the situation from a farmers point of view, as he raced to get the harvest in before last week’s rain.
https://youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=EBBPKFVmtlA