Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
The compromise was devolution to Stormont, something the EU had ruled out.
Differences between the UK and NI were something all parties even the DUP had agreed to so long as Stormont consented. Boris's genius was demanding Stormont's ongoing consent to any compromise, which the EU had refused to countenance previously.
You're suggesting Stormont has some privileged right to give its ongoing consent to a compromise they specifically didn't consent to.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
There are two fishmongers in Stafford, one in the centre and one in Stowe by Chartley. There are also fishmongers in individual Morrisons (Burntwood, Rugeley) and some who sell on market stalls in Lichfield, Stone and Penkridge.
Apart from that there are AFAIK no fishmongers in Staffordshire.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
Indeed, but I fail to see how the absence of Grieve, Soubry, Hammond et al is screwing the Tories.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
The Tory right and daily mail readers will blame everything on the EU. I’m not sure why you think exporters and truckers who will actually suffer from no deal would blame the EU, the Tories have had over four years to sort this out and make it easier to move to the new reality but they still piss about not realizing that what they are arguing about is worth far less than a smooth transition.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
The Tory right and daily mail readers will blame everything on the EU. I’m not sure why you think exporters and truckers who will actually suffer from no deal would blame the EU, the Tories have had over four years to sort this out and make it easier to move to the new reality but they still piss about not realizing that what they are arguing about is worth far less than a smooth transition.
I am talking about all the EU export businesses trying to import into the UK
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
Except the deadline is a UK tactic. All the EU has to do is offer an extension that isn't an extension (yes, I know what the WA says, but I'm sure a bespoke emergency deal could be whipped up at a bargain price of £300 million a week, say...). That's if they can be bothered. Bottom line is that thinking that the UK government can evade all blame is another terrible gamble.
Keir is heading for another election meltdown like 1992!
We're AL-RIGHT!!!
Taking 40 seats off the Tories ? Sounds a fair prediction.
It would be highly entertaining if at the end of all of this we repeat 2017
There is something maddeningly circular and indefinite about politics at the moment, indeed.
It's not in fact impossible for a disastrous no-deal or poor deal indeed to return us to a very narrow-margin election ; it would simply require some form of Tory mutiny for one reason or other, historical examples of which are fairly common.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
The Tory right and daily mail readers will blame everything on the EU. I’m not sure why you think exporters and truckers who will actually suffer from no deal would blame the EU, the Tories have had over four years to sort this out and make it easier to move to the new reality but they still piss about not realizing that what they are arguing about is worth far less than a smooth transition.
I am talking about all the EU export businesses trying to import into the UK
They will just export elsewhere within the EU and multitude of trade agreements they have available.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
There was an extremely funny one year of PM Boris Guido post that listed just three key achievements - two of which were winning an election.
It's been observed before but our Government is a descendent of Vote Leave so it's onlymonly of success is what happens on polling day, and anything there after is someone else's problem.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
Except the deadline is a UK tactic. All the EU has to do is offer an extension that isn't an extension (yes, I know what the WA says, but I'm sure a bespoke emergency deal could be whipped up at a bargain price of £300 million a week, say...). That's if they can be bothered. Bottom line is that thinking that the UK government can evade all blame is another terrible gamble.
I very much doubt it (extension) and I expect the EU will have a problem in a no deal in the blame game
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
The Tory right and daily mail readers will blame everything on the EU. I’m not sure why you think exporters and truckers who will actually suffer from no deal would blame the EU, the Tories have had over four years to sort this out and make it easier to move to the new reality but they still piss about not realizing that what they are arguing about is worth far less than a smooth transition.
I am talking about all the EU export businesses trying to import into the UK
They will just export elsewhere within the EU and multitude of trade agreements they have available.
I'm sure I read somewhere that the ONS already treats the railways as being a nationalised industry for statistical purposes.
Anyway, it's the inevitable destination, one would've thought. WFH means passenger numbers aren't going to return to anything like their previous levels. There won't be enough passengers left for the operators to break even, never mind turn a profit.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
There was an extremely funny one year of PM Boris Guido post that listed just three key achievements - two of which were winning an election.
It's been observed before but our Government is a descendent of Vote Leave so it's onlymonly of success is what happens on polling day, and anything there after is someone else's problem.
Blame some civil servants, or the BBC or China or someone else, never ever take responsibility.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
The Tory right and daily mail readers will blame everything on the EU. I’m not sure why you think exporters and truckers who will actually suffer from no deal would blame the EU, the Tories have had over four years to sort this out and make it easier to move to the new reality but they still piss about not realizing that what they are arguing about is worth far less than a smooth transition.
No. It is you that doesn't realise that what they are arguing about is worth infinitely more than a smooth transition.
If transition is bumpy then that is a shame but it doesn't matter too much as eventually people will adapt and then it will fade into history.
However what is being argued about will be around for years or decades to come. It will last indefinitely.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
Indeed, but I fail to see how the absence of Grieve, Soubry, Hammond et al is screwing the Tories.
Its left them with Williamson et al, who admittedly are screwing the whole nation, especially the young, not just the Tories.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
You need to get out more, there is dining beyond Wetherspoons. Most of those fish were on the menu today at "Baywatch on the Beach" at St Helens, where I lunched. I know of several places in Ventnor that serve excellent local seafood, and other local produce.
These people risked arrest, or worse, for standing up to the apartheid government for their non-white peers. They never played internationals again, because that protest - even more than the D’Oliveira affair - started South Africa’s sporting isolation.
Did they regret it? Here’s one thirty years later.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
Indeed, but I fail to see how the absence of Grieve, Soubry, Hammond et al is screwing the Tories.
Its left them with Williamson et al, who admittedly are screwing the whole nation, especially the young, not just the Tories.
Fair point regarding Williamson. God alone knows why he doesn’t languish on the backbenches.
Tel that to all the ones he kicked out of the Party.
He has completely screwed the Tories.
The Kippers on the other hand like him fine, until he also fucks them over.
Err he kicked them out and promptly won a majority of 80. Fair enough you don’t agree with him, but if that’s being screwed, success must be quite something to behold.
Some of us judge success by good governance rather than blue or red seats. He may be successful electorally (how much of that is due to dire opponents we will never know) but he has been terrible so far at actually doing the more important job of running the country.
Indeed, but I fail to see how the absence of Grieve, Soubry, Hammond et al is screwing the Tories.
Its left them with Williamson et al, who admittedly are screwing the whole nation, especially the young, not just the Tories.
Fair point regarding Williamson. God alone knows why he doesn’t languish on the backbenches.
Because he will vote with Boris, and will make even Boris look competent in comparison.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility Johnson increases his majority next time around
That’s not impossible, but it is unlikely. It assumes he loses no further seats in the South while making further inroads in the north of England and Wales.
The latter is both possible and indeed probable. The former, however...
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
He's not going to sign up to EEA.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
Perhaps, but if he goes too far then Parliament is bound to expose any such flaws - and we should not discount the possibility that enough Tory MPs rebel to bring down any agreement.
I thought parliament had agreed that the government would decide the deal and not parliament in order to prevent any more shenanegans?
I suspect Johnson is looking for an out for himself. He's not enjoying being PM. He;'s not well. It's not what he expected. He doesn't care about the next GE in 2004. He won't be around. I think he might resign around the end of this year.
A scenario:
At the last minute Johnson, directed by Cummings, agrees to a trade deal on goods that avoids tariffs and inspections - i.e. frictionless. In return he agrees to a "managed" level playing field and standards. They are aligned at the moment. The UK would "participate" in standard setting and can walk away at any time (with the imposition of tariffs and inspections). FOM is fudged. A deal is done on fisheries. Arbitration would be done by a new court consisting of memebrs of the CJEU and UK Supreme Court with super majority voting.
He only needs Cabinet approval, not parliament's. He loses Raab and Truss but the others stay. The deal is done.
Great unhappiness on Tory backbenches. Letters to the 22 Committee. Johnson resigns on 12 Dec 2020 - the anniversary of his great triumph but stays in place until his successor is chosen and then resigns as an MP to go back to journalism and the speaker circuit. Gove, supported by Cummings, is the continuity candidate. Raab is the hardline Brexit candidate (more negotiations still to be had on other matters and can still walk away from the deal) Hunt is the adult candidate. Sunak is the "most likely to win the next GE" candidate. In March 2021, Sunak is declared the winner. Brexit Party goes up in the polls and several Tory MPs resign the whip and join BXP. In May, the Tories do disastrously at the local elections. Labour is 10% ahead in the opinion polls. But still more than two years until the next GE unless ....
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Why would he go for EEA when even the EU are offering a deal that ends free movement and allows our own trade deals with some regulatory alignment, EEA still means regulatory alignment but no end to free movement and no points system in breach of the Tory manifesto?
It would also be electoral suicide in the Red Wall, whose voters given a choice of EEA with Starmer or EEA with Boris may as well go back to Labour
It was sarcasm.
I do believe he will capitulate though
I am beginning to come to the conclusion he will no deal
I cannot see on fish or a level playing field he has any other choice
If the aim is to prevent leakage to the Faragists, he has no choice. Any deal will have an element of give and take, fair compromise, and that will give Nigel a space to drive the outrage bus through.
But if you're going to No Deal, it's going to hurt, at least in the short term. If only because no deal means lots of extra import/export forms, and we don't have the form fillers appointed. So every day the UK doesn't bail is going to make the initial pain worse. But if the government said "OK. No deal it is." tomorrow, would they really carry through? Really? If you consider the other U turns Johnson has done, really?
We're all stuck on this tiger. There's no way of getting off it. Good luck.
It is perverse but covid has made no deal easier and it will come down to how much the public see the EU as unyielding as to whether Boris makes a go if it
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
The Tory right and daily mail readers will blame everything on the EU. I’m not sure why you think exporters and truckers who will actually suffer from no deal would blame the EU, the Tories have had over four years to sort this out and make it easier to move to the new reality but they still piss about not realizing that what they are arguing about is worth far less than a smooth transition.
I am talking about all the EU export businesses trying to import into the UK
They will just export elsewhere within the EU and multitude of trade agreements they have available.
That is so naive
What's naive about it? It looks like maths to me.
EU exporters have bumpier access to a market of 66 million people.
Even if you just consider EU countries who are richer per head than the UK, that gives Germany, France and assorted tiddlers. Germany + France is already 148 million people.
Even if there are brilliant deals around the corner, this hurts UK exporters in a more concentrated way than it hurts EU exporters.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
You need to get out more, there is dining beyond Wetherspoons. Most of those fish were on the menu today at "Baywatch on the Beach" at St Helens, where I lunched. I know of several places in Ventnor that serve excellent local seafood, and other local produce.
There is no Wetherspoons in Ventnor. I've walked around and through the island many times and I bet I know it better than you.
Aside from the barely concealed snobbery I didn't say there was nowhere that sold such produce for diners I was pointing out there was no mass market for it here like there is in Spain- and that was part of the problem.
I really fear for our police this bank holiday weekend
The last such freedom event with Piers Corbyn had about twenty five people.
I thought it was XR one million event this weekend
Maybe there is more than one demo on this weekend.
The XR one is the likely problem
They're perfectly capable of riding two horses at once.
There's normally a 6-8 day lag between events happening in the States and their pernicious aftershocks working their way over here, so I expect renewed protests at some point over the bank holiday weekend - provided the weather is clement.
Johnson's record is of capitulation, so I expect us to end up in EEA and him to sell that as a great deal
Surely EEA involves FOM, as well as a “fax democracy” of adopting Brussels rules verbatim?
Johnson would do well to last till teatime.
I think you’re in for disappointment to say the least.
He's not going to sign up to EEA.
I think the risk is that he agrees a form of words that allows him to claim victory now, but causes us big problems later - a consequence of his desire for adulation, and not being very detail oriented.
Perhaps, but if he goes too far then Parliament is bound to expose any such flaws - and we should not discount the possibility that enough Tory MPs rebel to bring down any agreement.
I thought parliament had agreed that the government would decide the deal and not parliament in order to prevent any more shenanegans?
I suspect Johnson is looking for an out for himself. He's not enjoying being PM. He;'s not well. It's not what he expected. He doesn't care about the next GE in 2004. He won't be around. I think he might resign around the end of this year.
A scenario:
At the last minute Johnson, directed by Cummings, agrees to a trade deal on goods that avoids tariffs and inspections - i.e. frictionless. In return he agrees to a "managed" level playing field and standards. They are aligned at the moment. The UK would "participate" in standard setting and can walk away at any time (with the imposition of tariffs and inspections). FOM is fudged. A deal is done on fisheries. Arbitration would be done by a new court consisting of memebrs of the CJEU and UK Supreme Court with super majority voting.
He only needs Cabinet approval, not parliament's. He loses Raab and Truss but the others stay. The deal is done.
Great unhappiness on Tory backbenches. Letters to the 22 Committee. Johnson resigns on 12 Dec 2020 - the anniversary of his great triumph but stays in place until his successor is chosen and then resigns as an MP to go back to journalism and the speaker circuit. Gove, supported by Cummings, is the continuity candidate. Raab is the hardline Brexit candidate (more negotiations still to be had on other matters and can still walk away from the deal) Hunt is the adult candidate. Sunak is the "most likely to win the next GE" candidate. In March 2021, Sunak is declared the winner. Brexit Party goes up in the polls and several Tory MPs resign the whip and join BXP. In May, the Tories do disastrously at the local elections. Labour is 10% ahead in the opinion polls. But still more than two years until the next GE unless ....
A lot of that makes sense- if Johnson wants to have value on the rubber chicken circuit, he can't be seen to trash the nation. (OK, whether No Deal would trash the nation is still a matter of opinion, but a deal along the lines you suggest is probably what he has to do).
But would Rishi want to be PM? In those circumstances (furious Brexiteers, some economic damage), being PM looks like a hospital pass. Someone bright, ambitious and young will have noticed that, and want more than two miserable years in the big seat. If I were Rishi, I'd be thinking of stepping back from this one, angling for Foreign Sec, and taking over post 2024 to rebuild on my own terms...
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
You need to get out more, there is dining beyond Wetherspoons. Most of those fish were on the menu today at "Baywatch on the Beach" at St Helens, where I lunched. I know of several places in Ventnor that serve excellent local seafood, and other local produce.
There is no Wetherspoons in Ventnor. I've walked around and through the island many times and I bet I know it better than you.
Aside from the barely concealed snobbery I didn't say there was nowhere that sold such produce for diners I was pointing out there was no mass market for it here like there is in Spain- and that was part of the problem.
But you know that.
Try the Spyglass Inn. Local seafood is a speciality.
Thr betting markets given the GOP a 44% chance of winning.. There is only 6 percentage points left before it it 50/50. It cannot get much closer than it currently is.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
What the Blakes don’t sell from their morning catch down at the Haven gets driven on the night ferry to Lymington and then roaded overnight to the morning fish market at Brixham for sale the next day. They tell me a lot of it is flown that afternoon to Dubai, where apparently there is a healthy market for British fish and shellfish.
To be fair, though, we have a fair few places selling the local catch. Smoking Lobster on the Esplanade. Beach Hut, Beach Shack and Crabshed down at Steephill. And of course the Royal Hotel, as well as Thompson’s at Newport.
Anecdotally I'm seen several ideologically right-wing people on the twitters who don't follow politics very closely and don't usually bet on it saying they want to bet / are betting on Trump. This is a market that is basing its judgements on factors other than polling data, to put it generously.
Thr betting markets given the GOP a 44% chance of winning.. There is only 6 percentage points left before it it 50/50. It cannot get much closer than it currently is.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
You need to get out more, there is dining beyond Wetherspoons. Most of those fish were on the menu today at "Baywatch on the Beach" at St Helens, where I lunched. I know of several places in Ventnor that serve excellent local seafood, and other local produce.
There is no Wetherspoons in Ventnor. I've walked around and through the island many times and I bet I know it better than you.
Aside from the barely concealed snobbery I didn't say there was nowhere that sold such produce for diners I was pointing out there was no mass market for it here like there is in Spain- and that was part of the problem.
But you know that.
Try the Spyglass Inn. Local seafood is a speciality.
I ate there only 4 weeks ago.
Don't get my wrong, I love that pub, but the seafood range was extremely limited: prawns, mussels, whitebait, breaded scampi, breaded plaice, crab meat salad and seafood curry and stew. Better than many places in the UK, yes. But it wasn't offering any of the fresh fish caught at Ventnor of the range and variety I described.
I'd have thought you'd have recognised my point anyway, particularly since it recognises that we ourselves might have a part to play in the plight of our fishermen rather than it all being the fault of the EU. [In truth the quota allocations are unfair to British fishermen but if we really want to help them we need to buy more of what they catch]
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
You need to get out more, there is dining beyond Wetherspoons. Most of those fish were on the menu today at "Baywatch on the Beach" at St Helens, where I lunched. I know of several places in Ventnor that serve excellent local seafood, and other local produce.
There is no Wetherspoons in Ventnor. I've walked around and through the island many times and I bet I know it better than you.
Aside from the barely concealed snobbery I didn't say there was nowhere that sold such produce for diners I was pointing out there was no mass market for it here like there is in Spain- and that was part of the problem.
But you know that.
Try the Spyglass Inn. Local seafood is a speciality.
They take some crab, but mostly serve up bog standard pub food to the tourists, mostly via the microwave.
"EU officials now believe the UK is prepared to end up with no deal."
Seriously? They now believe this. Have they not listened to a bloody word that has been said since Dec 2019?
They were probably taken in by the likes of Big_G who assured us all it would never happen.
Or Michael Gove, or Boris Johnson, or indeed the Vote Leave website:
'There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU. After we vote to leave we will stay in this zone. The suggestion that Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and the Ukraine would stay part of this free trade area - and Britain would be on the outside with just Belarus - is as credible as Jean-Claude Juncker joining UKIP.
'Agreeing to maintain this continental free trade zone is the simple course and emphatically in everyone’s interests.’
I look forward to Jean-Claude Juncker's keynote speech at the next UKIP conference.
It needs political bilateral discussion to unblock. In other words, leadership.
That means Boris has to get off his arse, do some work and pick up the phones.
Don't expect him to bother until September.
I should hope not. This should not be done until the last possible minute, only then will the EU be prepared to compromise.
Do you think they might be thinking the same thing?
Of course they are, which is why nothing is being achieved.
Under the last disastrous Government Roberts and May kept making compromise after compromise in order to try to "make progress" and the result was that the EU literally just laughed at her. Boris took over and achieved a more substantial and acceptable compromise with weeks to go than she'd managed in years.
Any compromises made now will be banked and then used as the starting point when the real negotiations occur.
The compromise was a border down the Irish sea, an offer predecessor was offered an rejected. I don't see why the real negotiations won't end up with a similar outcome. Boris isn't interested in the material outcome only it's framing.
You may turn out to be right, but I reckon there's really only so much that the Government will actually be willing to give away. It can't roll over and effectively sign up to continuity CFP, because the fishing issue is too totemic and sensitive politically. Not quite on the same level as immigration, but only limited compromise is possible and the EU ain't interested in compromise. And it can only go so far on the LPF provisions as well without tying itself in knots in its trade negotiations with the rest of the world.
Johnson signed up to a deal on Northern Ireland because the province returns no Tory MPs, and it isn't strategically valuable whereas good relations with the US are. It doesn't necessarily follow that he'll be willing to sign up to any old rubbish.
Fishing is one of these things where there is no really good answer, because we don't really know exactly what we want.
Only British fishermen can fish in UK waters... Does that mean only UK registered boats, or boats owned by UK individuals or companies? Does this include vessel tonnage limits? (If so, are we going to impose tariffs on imported fish so that our fishermen aren't out-competed by those with larger vessels and lower costs) What about boats wet leased from foreign firms? Is there a requirement to unload fish in the UK?
It's very hard to completely remove foreigners from one section of your economy, and trade deals we sign here (not just with the EU) limit our autonomy. Can British firms own farmland or oil drilling rights in Canada? If so, why can't Canadian firms own UK fishing licenses?
We don't eat our own fish. We don't like it.
I went to the fishery at Ventnor on the isle of wight. Fresh sea bass, plaice, skate, lobster, crab, mussels and prawns. And more I can't remember.
How much of that was sold in the local restaurants?
Virtually nil, except cod for fish & chips which weren't even caught there. There were plenty of places selling pizza, pasta and chips though.
You wouldn't get that in Spain. Restaurants would be filled with fresh seafood and diners eating it.
As long as we don't eat our own fish most of it is going to be exported and eaten by foreigners.
Want to support British fisherman? Start going to your local fishmonger and buying British fish twice a week - not just the chippy.
What the Blakes don’t sell from their morning catch down at the Haven gets driven on the night ferry to Lymington and then roaded overnight to the morning fish market at Brixham for sale the next day. They tell me a lot of it is flown that afternoon to Dubai, where apparently there is a healthy market for British fish and shellfish.
To be fair, though, we have a fair few places selling the local catch. Smoking Lobster on the Esplanade. Beach Hut, Beach Shack and Crabshed down at Steephill. And of course the Royal Hotel, as well as Thompson’s at Newport.
Yep. Dubai.
Don't get me wrong: the island is one of the best places on the south coast for fresh seafood when compared to the usual British baseline (one of the reasons I love it) but still not a patch on our continental cousins and we could do so much better.
Comments
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/opinion/trump-republican-convention-racism.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
It is very high stakes on both sides as I do not think for one minute the exporters and truckers caught in this on the other side of the channel will be at all charitable to Barnier and the EU
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51174448
Nationalise!
Apart from that there are AFAIK no fishmongers in Staffordshire.
https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1298529959137484802
Don't forget your mask x
Will leave you to it.
Even that would be a better performance than Corbyn in either 2017 (gained 30) or 2019 (lost 61) or Miliband (lost 26) or Brown (lost 111).
In fact, in terms of gains it would be Labour’s best performance since 1997, although that is not the only metric!
It's not in fact impossible for a disastrous no-deal or poor deal indeed to return us to a very narrow-margin election ; it would simply require some form of Tory mutiny for one reason or other, historical examples of which are fairly common.
https://order-order.com/2020/07/23/happy-boris-day/
It's been observed before but our Government is a descendent of Vote Leave so it's onlymonly of success is what happens on polling day, and anything there after is someone else's problem.
Meantime, the Moderna vaccine showing promising activity in older subjects:
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-triggers-immune-response-older-adults
The protesters are playing straight into Trump's hands.
Anyway, it's the inevitable destination, one would've thought. WFH means passenger numbers aren't going to return to anything like their previous levels. There won't be enough passengers left for the operators to break even, never mind turn a profit.
https://twitter.com/davidicke/status/1298576387289354240
What a shame voters arent very logical.
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1298716184339075072
If transition is bumpy then that is a shame but it doesn't matter too much as eventually people will adapt and then it will fade into history.
However what is being argued about will be around for years or decades to come. It will last indefinitely.
I do not see it in Trump or Biden
https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/south-african-cricketers-walk-out-protest-against-apartheid-after-just-one-ball-bowled
These people risked arrest, or worse, for standing up to the apartheid government for their non-white peers. They never played internationals again, because that protest - even more than the D’Oliveira affair - started South Africa’s sporting isolation.
Did they regret it? Here’s one thirty years later.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/22316879/mike-procter-test-career-compared-suffering-millions?
The latter is both possible and indeed probable. The former, however...
Nah I'll WFH thanks
I suspect Johnson is looking for an out for himself. He's not enjoying being PM. He;'s not well. It's not what he expected. He doesn't care about the next GE in 2004. He won't be around. I think he might resign around the end of this year.
A scenario:
At the last minute Johnson, directed by Cummings, agrees to a trade deal on goods that avoids tariffs and inspections - i.e. frictionless. In return he agrees to a "managed" level playing field and standards. They are aligned at the moment. The UK would "participate" in standard setting and can walk away at any time (with the imposition of tariffs and inspections). FOM is fudged. A deal is done on fisheries. Arbitration would be done by a new court consisting of memebrs of the CJEU and UK Supreme Court with super majority voting.
He only needs Cabinet approval, not parliament's. He loses Raab and Truss but the others stay. The deal is done.
Great unhappiness on Tory backbenches. Letters to the 22 Committee. Johnson resigns on 12 Dec 2020 - the anniversary of his great triumph but stays in place until his successor is chosen and then resigns as an MP to go back to journalism and the speaker circuit.
Gove, supported by Cummings, is the continuity candidate.
Raab is the hardline Brexit candidate (more negotiations still to be had on other matters and can still walk away from the deal)
Hunt is the adult candidate.
Sunak is the "most likely to win the next GE" candidate.
In March 2021, Sunak is declared the winner.
Brexit Party goes up in the polls and several Tory MPs resign the whip and join BXP.
In May, the Tories do disastrously at the local elections. Labour is 10% ahead in the opinion polls.
But still more than two years until the next GE unless ....
EU exporters have bumpier access to a market of 66 million people.
Even if you just consider EU countries who are richer per head than the UK, that gives Germany, France and assorted tiddlers. Germany + France is already 148 million people.
Even if there are brilliant deals around the corner, this hurts UK exporters in a more concentrated way than it hurts EU exporters.
Sunak would be taking over similarly to Brown.
Tbf Brown was attacked for a long time for bottling it
Aside from the barely concealed snobbery I didn't say there was nowhere that sold such produce for diners I was pointing out there was no mass market for it here like there is in Spain- and that was part of the problem.
But you know that.
There's normally a 6-8 day lag between events happening in the States and their pernicious aftershocks working their way over here, so I expect renewed protests at some point over the bank holiday weekend - provided the weather is clement.
Yes hopefully we can both stay up, good news Wed already down!
Who said irony was dead?
But would Rishi want to be PM? In those circumstances (furious Brexiteers, some economic damage), being PM looks like a hospital pass. Someone bright, ambitious and young will have noticed that, and want more than two miserable years in the big seat. If I were Rishi, I'd be thinking of stepping back from this one, angling for Foreign Sec, and taking over post 2024 to rebuild on my own terms...
Which just goes to show you he's not very good at arguments.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Thr betting markets given the GOP a 44% chance of winning.. There is only 6 percentage points left before it it 50/50. It cannot get much closer than it currently is.
To be fair, though, we have a fair few places selling the local catch. Smoking Lobster on the Esplanade. Beach Hut, Beach Shack and Crabshed down at Steephill. And of course the Royal Hotel, as well as Thompson’s at Newport.
https://twitter.com/NicholasPegg/status/1298647435829563393
Seriously? They now believe this. Have they not listened to a bloody word that has been said since Dec 2019?
Looks like 2016.
#MAGA2
Don't get my wrong, I love that pub, but the seafood range was extremely limited: prawns, mussels, whitebait, breaded scampi, breaded plaice, crab meat salad and seafood curry and stew. Better than many places in the UK, yes. But it wasn't offering any of the fresh fish caught at Ventnor of the range and variety I described.
I'd have thought you'd have recognised my point anyway, particularly since it recognises that we ourselves might have a part to play in the plight of our fishermen rather than it all being the fault of the EU. [In truth the quota allocations are unfair to British fishermen but if we really want to help them we need to buy more of what they catch]
'There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU. After we vote to leave we will stay in this zone. The suggestion that Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and the Ukraine would stay part of this free trade area - and Britain would be on the outside with just Belarus - is as credible as Jean-Claude Juncker joining UKIP.
'Agreeing to maintain this continental free trade zone is the simple course and emphatically in everyone’s interests.’
I look forward to Jean-Claude Juncker's keynote speech at the next UKIP conference.
Don't get me wrong: the island is one of the best places on the south coast for fresh seafood when compared to the usual British baseline (one of the reasons I love it) but still not a patch on our continental cousins and we could do so much better.
Well said.