Mr. Password, ha, I'm just writing the intro for my pre-qualifying tosh and it includes a line about BBC forecasts being less accurate than they once were.
Betting Post - Weather forecast rain for all 5 days of Test
Cant see anything but a draw. 3 days lost out of 5
Draw 2.08 Betfair
DYOR
The First Test lasted all of 311 overs (including partial overs as full overs).
The forecast is for showers, rather than continuous frontal rain. It may not rain at all on some days, it won't necessarily rain for that long when it does, and better drainage at Test grounds should minimise the length of interruptions.
They should easily manage an average of 70 overs a day, which I'd expect to be enough for a result.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
I think ECMWF are still the best, but because they are set up to do medium range forecasts they start their forecasts later, so can run them with more observations, and the comparison isn't entirely fair.
The small European weather services tend to run local area forecast models with ECMWF boundary forcing - e.g. Ireland. Some of these will be run on the ECMWF supercomputer, but the model is run by the national weather service.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
The BBC weren't willing to pay for Met Office quality.
There's lots of information about the accuracy of Met Office forecasts, but it isn't necessarily pitched for the general audience. For some of the measures they are answerable to government departments which governs the form the measures take. For others they are subject to agreement with other national forecasters - so again there are constraints.
There are some charlatans about who like to claim better accuracy than the Met Office, but when challenged they refuse to agree to a format for independent evaluation.
The groups like Netweather and Meteogroup - who use the US forecasts - tend to do a decent job on converting those to forecasts for a specific place. But in the longer forecast times that doesn't compensate for the underlying forecast not being as good.
Thanks. That sheds a good deal of light on a murky subject, but I still think the Agencies could make a bit more of an effort to explain the issues to the general public and account for their accuracy, or lack of it.
It really shouldn't be up to us to try and proof their predictions.
Also - I think sitting A-levels is a rite of passage, it's the first serious exam with something important hinging on the results. This cohort now has no experience of going into an exam hall where what you do for the next 3 hours can have life altering outcomes. That's a huge loss for mental toughness IMO.
Betting Post - Weather forecast rain for all 5 days of Test
Cant see anything but a draw. 3 days lost out of 5
Draw 2.08 Betfair
DYOR
The First Test lasted all of 311 overs (including partial overs as full overs).
The forecast is for showers, rather than continuous frontal rain. It may not rain at all on some days, it won't necessarily rain for that long when it does, and better drainage at Test grounds should minimise the length of interruptions.
They should easily manage an average of 70 overs a day, which I'd expect to be enough for a result.
180 over or 350 overs quite a difference of opinion we will see who is right.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
The BBC weren't willing to pay for Met Office quality.
There's lots of information about the accuracy of Met Office forecasts, but it isn't necessarily pitched for the general audience. For some of the measures they are answerable to government departments which governs the form the measures take. For others they are subject to agreement with other national forecasters - so again there are constraints.
There are some charlatans about who like to claim better accuracy than the Met Office, but when challenged they refuse to agree to a format for independent evaluation.
The groups like Netweather and Meteogroup - who use the US forecasts - tend to do a decent job on converting those to forecasts for a specific place. But in the longer forecast times that doesn't compensate for the underlying forecast not being as good.
Thanks. That sheds a good deal of light on a murky subject, but I still think the Agencies could make a bit more of an effort to explain the issues to the general public and account for their accuracy, or lack of it.
It really shouldn't be up to us to try and proof their predictions.
You're just miffed the draw has shortened (Same boat, or should that be ark ?) btw.
I know we have seen some surprise results but for Biden to do worse than HC and lose the popular vote, would be shocking, although in US politics who knows
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
Sure, but verified by whom? And why aren't the details readily available on their sites? That's a requirement that applies to just about everyone in a forecasting business. Why not weather forecasters?
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
I hope this isn't spammy to say but for any gamers here "A Total War Saga: TROY" is now free on Epic for the first 24 hours since its launch today. Will be £35 I believe from tomorrow. Interesting idea giving a new release for free on day one.
All those holidaying (and residents) on Anglesey and surrounds are being treated to practice displays by the 'Red Arrows' today
The Spanish air display team are based at St Javea airport five miles away, we often have them practicing over the Mar Menor. Always worth pausing to watch.
Also - I think sitting A-levels is a rite of passage, it's the first serious exam with something important hinging on the results. This cohort now has no experience of going into an exam hall where what you do for the next 3 hours can have life altering outcomes. That's a huge loss for mental toughness IMO.
Dunno about mental toughness, but I honestly didn't know the stuff I was supposed to know until I did all the past papers and practiced and revised. Especially for something like Maths.
Tb absolutely fair, it's the Scotch Conservatives that have deleted their own tweet therefore all the RTs are deleted also.
Of course that still begs the questions of why the sub branch of the governing party of the UK have deleted their own tweet on the day that Gav's shit hit the fan, and why so many English Tory MPs were dutifully rt-ing the semi-literate pish in the first place.
One thing that won’t happen this year is a massive cock-up by the exam boards themselves. I’ve seen A* candidates get a D or E because the board forgot to add in the mark for one paper or transposed the digits (91% becomes 19% for example). In some cases this has cost people their university place as by the time it had been sorted it had gone to someone else. Sometimes a department will get all their students downgraded for no particular reason, and trying to get any exam board to admit that they have made a mistake is like trying to get blood from a stone. Obviously there will be students who will not get what they deserve this year, and the way Ofqual have gone about things is not helping. But let’s not pretend that the way things normally go is perfect either.
BiB - Seriously? That's beyond terrible.
That happened in my school in English Lit 'O' level many years ago. Nothing much changes.
A lot of 'A' students who went on to get an A at A Level got Bs, Cs and Ds. I got an A in the mock exam and was awarded a U in the real one. The entire school year was affected.
I was advised not to challenge it as it wasn't likely to be upgraded very much and a U didn't appear on the certificate. I didn't really care as I did science A levels anyway, so it remains a badge of honour more than anything.
At A level it would of course been a much bigger problem.
Finally I have an explanation for why I got an E at O-Level English Lit! I sat it in 1983.
I am embarrassed to say I got a B in History at O Level; otherwise straight As. Which is why I can never criticise @ydoethur .
I got a C in Economics but that never stopped me criticising Brown.
Your history is not as bad as Brown's economics, though.
All those holidaying (and residents) on Anglesey and surrounds are being treated to practice displays by the 'Red Arrows' today
The Spanish air display team are based at St Javea airport five miles away, we often have them practicing over the Mar Menor. Always worth pausing to watch.
Is that airport still open for commercial flights? Used it about 15 years back when it was cheaper than Alicante.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
Teaching using the Quaker method: I wonder if I could get away with it?
All those holidaying (and residents) on Anglesey and surrounds are being treated to practice displays by the 'Red Arrows' today
The Spanish air display team are based at St Javea airport five miles away, we often have them practicing over the Mar Menor. Always worth pausing to watch.
Is that airport still open for commercial flights? Used it about 15 years back when it was cheaper than Alicante.
Closed March last year, vet sad Corvera is in the middle of nowhere and thirty minutes away not ten!
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
My best Physics pun is to say ‘Watt is the unit of power”, wait for some of them to put their hands up, and then say “that was a statement, not a question”.
After the fourth or fifth repetition (in different lessons) most of them have got it.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
Being trained to be tolerant of (or even interested in) boring tedium is an important part of the school "hidden" curriculum. It is good training for life, and teaches concentration and persistence. Vital for the world of work.
Though my gritty essay on the reasons why lecturers should not be too entertaining, with the aim of developing students boredom threshold was not well received as part of my MMedEd. Maybe it needed a more Calvinist assessor. If students only study what is interesting and engaging, they are building on foundations of sand.
One thing that won’t happen this year is a massive cock-up by the exam boards themselves. I’ve seen A* candidates get a D or E because the board forgot to add in the mark for one paper or transposed the digits (91% becomes 19% for example). In some cases this has cost people their university place as by the time it had been sorted it had gone to someone else. Sometimes a department will get all their students downgraded for no particular reason, and trying to get any exam board to admit that they have made a mistake is like trying to get blood from a stone. Obviously there will be students who will not get what they deserve this year, and the way Ofqual have gone about things is not helping. But let’s not pretend that the way things normally go is perfect either.
BiB - Seriously? That's beyond terrible.
That happened in my school in English Lit 'O' level many years ago. Nothing much changes.
A lot of 'A' students who went on to get an A at A Level got Bs, Cs and Ds. I got an A in the mock exam and was awarded a U in the real one. The entire school year was affected.
I was advised not to challenge it as it wasn't likely to be upgraded very much and a U didn't appear on the certificate. I didn't really care as I did science A levels anyway, so it remains a badge of honour more than anything.
At A level it would of course been a much bigger problem.
Finally I have an explanation for why I got an E at O-Level English Lit! I sat it in 1983.
1974 - good O level grades except for Eng Lit where I got a CSE. So I did science instead. 40 years later I did Eng Lang & Lit at the OU and got a First....
One thing that won’t happen this year is a massive cock-up by the exam boards themselves. I’ve seen A* candidates get a D or E because the board forgot to add in the mark for one paper or transposed the digits (91% becomes 19% for example). In some cases this has cost people their university place as by the time it had been sorted it had gone to someone else. Sometimes a department will get all their students downgraded for no particular reason, and trying to get any exam board to admit that they have made a mistake is like trying to get blood from a stone. Obviously there will be students who will not get what they deserve this year, and the way Ofqual have gone about things is not helping. But let’s not pretend that the way things normally go is perfect either.
BiB - Seriously? That's beyond terrible.
That happened in my school in English Lit 'O' level many years ago. Nothing much changes.
A lot of 'A' students who went on to get an A at A Level got Bs, Cs and Ds. I got an A in the mock exam and was awarded a U in the real one. The entire school year was affected.
I was advised not to challenge it as it wasn't likely to be upgraded very much and a U didn't appear on the certificate. I didn't really care as I did science A levels anyway, so it remains a badge of honour more than anything.
At A level it would of course been a much bigger problem.
Finally I have an explanation for why I got an E at O-Level English Lit! I sat it in 1983.
1974 - good O level grades except for Eng Lit where I got a CSE. So I did science instead. 40 years later I did Eng Lang & Lit at the OU and got a First....
English Lit is certainly one of the areas where I think older candidates would have an enormous advantage: how can a sixteen year old understand what Lear is going through for instance.
David Frost has now joined House Of Lords - listed as Conservative Peer, not Crossbench even though he will hold role of National Security Adviser currently done by Mark Sedwill.
What’s that to do with it, without being rude? Rita Ora is being slated for being Albanian and doing ‘black’ music/style. I can’t believe there is criticism of her for this! She can do what she wants
Betting Post - Weather forecast rain for all 5 days of Test
Cant see anything but a draw. 3 days lost out of 5
Draw 2.08 Betfair
DYOR
The First Test lasted all of 311 overs (including partial overs as full overs).
The forecast is for showers, rather than continuous frontal rain. It may not rain at all on some days, it won't necessarily rain for that long when it does, and better drainage at Test grounds should minimise the length of interruptions.
They should easily manage an average of 70 overs a day, which I'd expect to be enough for a result.
Yes, I'm still optimistic about a result and would definitely be a buyer at evens if the forecasts are anywhere near accurate. They have however been pretty dreadful so far (all your interesting and insightful comments notwithstanding) and I wouldn't stake too much at a time. I'd also wait to see what effect if any the rain has on the pitch.
Pakistan have done ok so far and if they can squeeze out 300 or so runs in the first innings they will be in a strong position. They have however enjoyed the rub of the green today and a clatter of wickets seems possible any time.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
My best Physics pun is to say ‘Watt is the unit of power”, wait for some of them to put their hands up, and then say “that was a statement, not a question”.
After the fourth or fifth repetition (in different lessons) most of them have got it.
I always liked 'go to work on an erg', but I guess you've heard that un oeuf times.
What’s that to do with it, without being rude? Rita Ora is being slated for being Albanian and doing ‘black’ music/style. I can’t believe there is criticism of her for this! She can do what she wants
No, and she never claims to be black, but the choice of the lighter skinned as more worthy of attention is a legitimate issue for black and Asian people.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
The BBC weren't willing to pay for Met Office quality.
There's lots of information about the accuracy of Met Office forecasts, but it isn't necessarily pitched for the general audience. For some of the measures they are answerable to government departments which governs the form the measures take. For others they are subject to agreement with other national forecasters - so again there are constraints.
There are some charlatans about who like to claim better accuracy than the Met Office, but when challenged they refuse to agree to a format for independent evaluation.
The groups like Netweather and Meteogroup - who use the US forecasts - tend to do a decent job on converting those to forecasts for a specific place. But in the longer forecast times that doesn't compensate for the underlying forecast not being as good.
Thanks. That sheds a good deal of light on a murky subject, but I still think the Agencies could make a bit more of an effort to explain the issues to the general public and account for their accuracy, or lack of it.
It really shouldn't be up to us to try and proof their predictions.
You're just miffed the draw has shortened (Same boat, or should that be ark ?) btw.
No, not really, Pulpy and I still think a result is likely. Anyway I accept my losses as part of the game. As I've tried to explain many times, what I really resent is lack of accountability in forecasting, as in life generally.
Oh well, I must be "appropriating" White culture for wearing shirt and trousers (usually) and speaking da English Oh and not to mention my adoration for trains (Tube or otherwise) and Depeche Mode
What’s that to do with it, without being rude? Rita Ora is being slated for being Albanian and doing ‘black’ music/style. I can’t believe there is criticism of her for this! She can do what she wants
No, and she never claims to be black, but the choice of the lighter skinned as more worthy of attention is a legitimate issue for black and Asian people.
Oh well, I must be "appropriating" White culture for wearing shirt and trousers (usually) and speaking da English Oh and not to mention my adoration for trains (Tube or otherwise) and Depeche Mode
I thought the goal was for race/colour etc to be a non issue. It seems to be becoming more of one, particularly in the arts.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
My best Physics pun is to say ‘Watt is the unit of power”, wait for some of them to put their hands up, and then say “that was a statement, not a question”.
After the fourth or fifth repetition (in different lessons) most of them have got it.
A professional physicist, and an ammeter comedian.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
Sure, but verified by whom? And why aren't the details readily available on their sites? That's a requirement that applies to just about everyone in a forecasting business. Why not weather forecasters?
There's more elsewhere, but you seem to prefer to moan than look for it.
Lol! Yes, I do like a moan but I think they give me plenty of ammo. I'm more used to checking the records of racing tipsters and investment advisers and don't generally find I have to look far to see readily comprehensible results. The onus shouldn't be entirely on the customer to 'go look for it'. The weather forecasters do a pretty poor job in this respect.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Ruth Davidson got a good going over yesterday after her dumb remarks, she looked like she was sooking a bag of lemons.
“I am not sure that loyalty to colleagues is a strong suit for Ruth Davidson,” Ms Sturgeon remarked, wryly – a comment that went down well on the SNP benches.Ms Sturgeon attacked Ms Davidson for accepting a seat in the House of Lords.
“In just a few months I will submit myself and my government to the verdict of the Scottish people in an election,” the first minister said. “That is the ultimate accountability for our record and our leadership. As we do that, Ruth Davidson will be pulling on her ermine and going to the unelected House of Lords.”
Michael Matheson, Scottish Minister of Transport, commenting on yesterday’s train crash.
What I think we can assess, though, is that weather has had an impact.
No. Shit. Sherlock.
In fairness, he was talking about the effect of changing climatic extremes on an often elderly infrastructure not designed to meet it.
Carnyx, any chance to take words out of context as long as they can chip in an SNPBAD at the end. Probably upset that their golden girl got torn a new one at FM questions yesterday , so bad it left the mooth speechless which is a first.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
I'm a plant too. But I provide brilliance for long periods with the occasional bit of quietness.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
Sure, but verified by whom? And why aren't the details readily available on their sites? That's a requirement that applies to just about everyone in a forecasting business. Why not weather forecasters?
There's more elsewhere, but you seem to prefer to moan than look for it.
Lol! Yes, I do like a moan but I think they give me plenty of ammo. I'm more used to checking the records of racing tipsters and investment advisers and don't generally find I have to look far to see readily comprehensible results. The onus shouldn't be entirely on the customer to 'go look for it'. The weather forecasters do a pretty poor job in this respect.
How would you explain the accuracy or otherwise of a weather forecast to the 'punters'? It is very difficult.
If I issue a forecast of PROB50 of rain every day for Manchester and it rains 50% of the time, is that accurate, and more to the point, is it useful?
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
Sure, but verified by whom? And why aren't the details readily available on their sites? That's a requirement that applies to just about everyone in a forecasting business. Why not weather forecasters?
There's more elsewhere, but you seem to prefer to moan than look for it.
Lol! Yes, I do like a moan but I think they give me plenty of ammo. I'm more used to checking the records of racing tipsters and investment advisers and don't generally find I have to look far to see readily comprehensible results. The onus shouldn't be entirely on the customer to 'go look for it'. The weather forecasters do a pretty poor job in this respect.
How would you explain the accuracy or otherwise of a weather forecast to the 'punters'? It is very difficult.
If I issue a forecast of PROB50 of rain every day for Manchester and it rains 50% of the time, is that accurate, and more to the point, is it useful?
Oh 'difficulty' is a poor excuse. It can't be beyond the wit of man to devise something. Other forecasters in 'difficult' areas manage it, but even an occasional simple narrative would be an improvement on what we have at present. For example, today's forecasts for \Southampton from the BBC and Netweather were both wrong, plain and simple; a short note on tomorrow's site explaining how and why this happened would be good PR if nothing else.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
Sure, but verified by whom? And why aren't the details readily available on their sites? That's a requirement that applies to just about everyone in a forecasting business. Why not weather forecasters?
There's more elsewhere, but you seem to prefer to moan than look for it.
Lol! Yes, I do like a moan but I think they give me plenty of ammo. I'm more used to checking the records of racing tipsters and investment advisers and don't generally find I have to look far to see readily comprehensible results. The onus shouldn't be entirely on the customer to 'go look for it'. The weather forecasters do a pretty poor job in this respect.
How would you explain the accuracy or otherwise of a weather forecast to the 'punters'? It is very difficult.
If I issue a forecast of PROB50 of rain every day for Manchester and it rains 50% of the time, is that accurate, and more to the point, is it useful?
Oh 'difficulty' is a poor excuse. It can't be beyond the wit of man to devise something. Other forecasters in 'difficult' areas manage it, but even an occasional simple narrative would be an improvement on what we have at present. For example, today's forecasts for \Southampton from the BBC and Netweather were both wrong, plain and simple; a short note on tomorrow's site explaining how and why this happened would be good PR if nothing else.
Were they wrong though? The model output had a high probability of localised heavy showers and thunderstorms across the S of England. The probability of the cricket ground being hit by rain might well have been 40%.
The Met Office local forecast shows a graphic but also a rainfall probability. What did it say?
PS More (light) rain is heading for Southampton, but Andover is about to get absolutely hammered.
Now you've done it. That's it for England's chances.
But if you've layed the draw, you're ok. Pakistan make 300+ they can easily go on to win.
Netweather still saying no rain. BBC disagree. Can't both be right!
BBC and Netweather both base their forecasts on the US GFS model - since their forecast data is made freely available to commercial forecasters.
Why not use the Met Office forecast which uses the superior British forecast model?
I thought the Beeb used the Met Office?
Anyway my beef with all weather forecasters is not that they get it wrong from time to time. That's understandable; it's a difficult art. I want to know why they don't publish their results, at least not in a readily accessible form. Until they start doing so, they can be justly mocked as comparable to astrologers, producing waffly predictions that are never measured against the reality.
Not any more, they use MeteoGroup, which uses GFS and ECM to make its forecasts.
The Met Office are used by ITV.
Noted with thanks, but if none of them publish results who knows which is best?
All of the so-called 'Big Three' models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are verified retrospectively. I don't have the relevant links to hand but there are there if you mooch around.
ECMWF used to do better at long range.
Of course, to get local forecasts you really need to run a local model. GFS is a 'global' model, whereas the UKMO run both global and local models. I'm not sure about ECM - there are a number of local European models (eg EURO4) but whether they run any I'm not 100% sure
You can run your own local WRF model using GFS inputs if you are so inclined...
Sure, but verified by whom? And why aren't the details readily available on their sites? That's a requirement that applies to just about everyone in a forecasting business. Why not weather forecasters?
There's more elsewhere, but you seem to prefer to moan than look for it.
Lol! Yes, I do like a moan but I think they give me plenty of ammo. I'm more used to checking the records of racing tipsters and investment advisers and don't generally find I have to look far to see readily comprehensible results. The onus shouldn't be entirely on the customer to 'go look for it'. The weather forecasters do a pretty poor job in this respect.
How would you explain the accuracy or otherwise of a weather forecast to the 'punters'? It is very difficult.
If I issue a forecast of PROB50 of rain every day for Manchester and it rains 50% of the time, is that accurate, and more to the point, is it useful?
Oh 'difficulty' is a poor excuse. It can't be beyond the wit of man to devise something. Other forecasters in 'difficult' areas manage it, but even an occasional simple narrative would be an improvement on what we have at present. For example, today's forecasts for \Southampton from the BBC and Netweather were both wrong, plain and simple; a short note on tomorrow's site explaining how and why this happened would be good PR if nothing else.
Were they wrong though? The model output had a high probability of localised heavy showers and thunderstorms across the S of England. The probability of the cricket ground being hit by rain might well have been 40%.
The Met Office local forecast shows a graphic but also a rainfall probability. What did it say?
PS More (light) rain is coming
Quite so. I also use the rainfall radar and forecast rainfall map (ie in contours) on the MO site to judge what's coming our way in an houyr or two, adjusting crudely7 mentally for high ground and our local rainfall shadow effect, and to get a feel of the 'patchiness' of the showers in space - a useful sense of how likely we might be to get some rain, and what i tis like if we do.
Edit: if the showers are scattered I don't take the exact forecast locations too seriouslyt - just use their size as an idea of how likely we might be to get some.
1) Daughter of a friend predicted A*, A, A. Received B, B, C. Failed to get into first choice Uni.
2) Friend last week lost her sense of smell, felt rotten, went to get tested, results were "inconclusive". Feels fine now.
I have managed with these anecdotes to incorporate the vast swathe of PB topics. But wait, one more:
3) Some, many, perhaps most Brexiters are TAPS.
Your welcome.
Taps eh?
I voted remain, so you are not talking about me, but I have no idea what a tap is.
Mind you, I did a course for aspiring middle managers once (auto correct wanted that to be “middle ammeters” and I was very tempted to leave it in) and in the personality test phase I came back as a plant. I was not impressed.
Plant. Quiet for long periods then chips in with a bit of brilliance. One thinks of Teddy Sheringham.
So a compliment? Not sure the ‘quiet for long periods’ bit works well for a teacher tbh.
It IS a compliment but I see your point, not ideal for a teacher. Kids not guaranteed to sit patiently through several lessons of complete silence waiting for the inspirational nugget. And imagine if they doze off and miss it. Much grief from irate parents. Especially if they're paying fees.
Dunno. I would certainly have welcomed more periods of silence from several of my teachers.
I always find if the atmosphere’s flagging an awesome pun does much to revive things.
Quite so. I also use the rainfall radar and forecast rainfall map (ie in contours) on the MO site to judge what's coming our way in an houyr or two, adjusting crudely7 mentally for high ground and our local rainfall shadow effect, and to get a feel of the 'patchiness' of the showers in space - a useful sense of how likely we might be to get some rain, and what i tis like if we do.
Edit: if the showers are scattered I don't take the exact forecast locations too seriouslyt - just use their size as an idea of how likely we might be to get some.
Indeed. It almost takes the fun out of going for a walk or a bike ride.
You sound like me when one of my hot tips has run like a donkey!
I'm not being naive or unreasonable about this and I'm certainly not looking just at what happened at the cricket ground. The forecasts in question were for Southampton and obviously some parts would be more affected than others. Normally I wouldn't take as much note as I did today in forecasts but curiously the BBC Site and Netweather were giving flatly contradictory impressions so I thought I'd keep tabs on them. It was interesting and instructive and to be honest I've learned a lot.
But if I were a forecaster in any field and I was as wrong as they (both) were today I'd want my customers/readers/investors to hear something from me about it. I wouldn't want anyone suspecting I just didn't care.
PS It is now pissing down. Netweather predicted no rain today, until it became obvious to a blind man that was wrong.
Quite so. I also use the rainfall radar and forecast rainfall map (ie in contours) on the MO site to judge what's coming our way in an houyr or two, adjusting crudely7 mentally for high ground and our local rainfall shadow effect, and to get a feel of the 'patchiness' of the showers in space - a useful sense of how likely we might be to get some rain, and what i tis like if we do.
Edit: if the showers are scattered I don't take the exact forecast locations too seriouslyt - just use their size as an idea of how likely we might be to get some.
Indeed. It almost takes the fun out of going for a walk or a bike ride.
But it rains so often here in Scotland anyway that it doesn't matter for walkies, and I don't have a bike so don't come home with a median dorsal stripe proceeding north from my buttock cleft. It's more for when working in the garden or (as now) painting the new shed that I need to know with some certainty/probability.
Radar looks like we might get some more play at the Rose Bowl, just a couple of tiny showers behind the main squall and they might fizzle out by the time they cross the Solent.
Comments
The follow up article is equally interesting:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/13/elissa-slotkin-covid-campaigning-michigan-393608
The forecast is for showers, rather than continuous frontal rain. It may not rain at all on some days, it won't necessarily rain for that long when it does, and better drainage at Test grounds should minimise the length of interruptions.
They should easily manage an average of 70 overs a day, which I'd expect to be enough for a result.
I reckon in the whole 5 days will be lucky to get 180 overs in.
IMO very improbable that there can be a result for either side, and that evs is a cracking bet
Anyway DYOR
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/12/demonisation-migrants-tories-scapegoat-covid
The small European weather services tend to run local area forecast models with ECMWF boundary forcing - e.g. Ireland. Some of these will be run on the ECMWF supercomputer, but the model is run by the national weather service.
Jesus, how is this ever acceptable?
It really shouldn't be up to us to try and proof their predictions.
Cant see us getting more than 50 today can you?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/accuracy-and-trust/comparing-forecast-accuracy
There's more elsewhere, but you seem to prefer to moan than look for it.
https://www.epicgames.com/store/en-US/product/a-total-war-saga-troy/home
Of course that still begs the questions of why the sub branch of the governing party of the UK have deleted their own tweet on the day that Gav's shit hit the fan, and why so many English Tory MPs were dutifully rt-ing the semi-literate pish in the first place.
After the fourth or fifth repetition (in different lessons) most of them have got it.
Though my gritty essay on the reasons why lecturers should not be too entertaining, with the aim of developing students boredom threshold was not well received as part of my MMedEd. Maybe it needed a more Calvinist assessor. If students only study what is interesting and engaging, they are building on foundations of sand.
https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1293810974831644672?s=21
https://twitter.com/blairsmus/status/1293670125946703874?s=09
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1293922803419353088?s=20
Pakistan have done ok so far and if they can squeeze out 300 or so runs in the first innings they will be in a strong position. They have however enjoyed the rub of the green today and a clatter of wickets seems possible any time.
What I think we can assess, though, is that weather has had an impact.
No. Shit. Sherlock.
If so, that is very big news.
Oh well, I must be "appropriating" White culture for wearing shirt and trousers (usually) and speaking da English
Oh and not to mention my adoration for trains (Tube or otherwise) and Depeche Mode
https://twitter.com/oh_south_london/status/1293804987324272640?s=21
https://twitter.com/teddy_wilkin/status/1293927606216200193?s=20
Quite a few commenting it's a "big deal"
https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1293924976312168449?s=20
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1293930013901889539?s=20
“I am not sure that loyalty to colleagues is a strong suit for Ruth Davidson,” Ms Sturgeon remarked, wryly – a comment that went down well on the SNP benches.Ms Sturgeon attacked Ms Davidson for accepting a seat in the House of Lords.
“In just a few months I will submit myself and my government to the verdict of the Scottish people in an election,” the first minister said. “That is the ultimate accountability for our record and our leadership. As we do that, Ruth Davidson will be pulling on her ermine and going to the unelected House of Lords.”
If I issue a forecast of PROB50 of rain every day for Manchester and it rains 50% of the time, is that accurate, and more to the point, is it useful?
One positive about having the Vanilla comments system is that this "thread" has been able to continue. Vanilla is entirely separate from PB
But yes, that sort of sensor may well become more necessary.
The Met Office local forecast shows a graphic but also a rainfall probability. What did it say?
PS More (light) rain is heading for Southampton, but Andover is about to get absolutely hammered.
Edit: if the showers are scattered I don't take the exact forecast locations too seriouslyt - just use their size as an idea of how likely we might be to get some.
I'm not being naive or unreasonable about this and I'm certainly not looking just at what happened at the cricket ground. The forecasts in question were for Southampton and obviously some parts would be more affected than others. Normally I wouldn't take as much note as I did today in forecasts but curiously the BBC Site and Netweather were giving flatly contradictory impressions so I thought I'd keep tabs on them. It was interesting and instructive and to be honest I've learned a lot.
But if I were a forecaster in any field and I was as wrong as they (both) were today I'd want my customers/readers/investors to hear something from me about it. I wouldn't want anyone suspecting I just didn't care.
PS It is now pissing down. Netweather predicted no rain today, until it became obvious to a blind man that was wrong.
That Sasha & John Digweed chose it to close the second CD on the classic original Renaissance album says a great deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyZkFUH0ttg
Another shit food processing plant.
I'd venture that figure will be rather high.
Mostly local. Localised outbreaks account for a massive proportion of all cases nationally.
This is M&S COVID