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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    I was given pretty low predictions for A Levels too; in retrospect, the teachers were trying to make sure I put maximum effort in so I'd be more likely to get the grades I needed to get to Cambridge.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    But in this case, wouldn't you end up doing worse since they're moderating the grades down in a lot of cases.

    Somebody in the other thread said the moderation is based on looking at past results but if there are lots of new GCSEs and so on as I understand there are, it doesn't seem like they have a lot to go on.
    It does not really matter if there are new GCSEs. If the Ed Sec or OfQual decrees there should be 10 per cent grade As, 30 per cent Bs and so on, then that can be made to happen. Usually it would be done by sliding pass marks up and down, this year by reducing predicted grades.

    And this can be unfair on pupils because Mr Jones might have predicted As for everyone while Miss Smith in the neighbouring school predicted Bs for her equally smart students.

    But life is unfair. Imagine sitting A-levels today, Friday. In the South East you'd have been roasting but in other parts of the country it was quite pleasant. Some students have hay fever, others don't. Some have books and the interweb at home, others not. And so on and so forth.

    Personally, I cannot understand why the government did not allow the exams to go ahead as normal but it didn't so now school leavers are in a bit of a pickle. On aggregate, solutions are easy. At the individual level, there will be injustices.
    You can't see why the exams did not go ahead as normal?
    Really?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's an interesting nugget in the US election.

    Trump is doing better - in net approval ratings - that the two US Presidents who failed to be re-elected: Carter and Bush. But he's doing worse than all the Presidents who did get re-elected.

    Which suggests a fairly knife-edge election.

    I think there's a lot of middle America who are keeping a low profile but who don't think Biden is up to it, who will let the Democrats be the loud mouths and then vote quietly for Trump at the election.

    As ever it's the left which make the most noise.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Trump seems to be running ads against himself.

    https://twitter.com/AgentSoulful007/status/1291788052092919811

    "Make America Great Again" - ok vote in Biden then, Trump has had five years to do it.
    Don't let them divide us says the advert and then cuts to the Trump/Pence sign.

    Masterful.
    Except it doesn’t

    Don’t let them divide us

    //

    We are all Americans

    //

    [Trump/Pence]
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    edited August 2020
    Ave_it said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's an interesting nugget in the US election.

    Trump is doing better - in net approval ratings - that the two US Presidents who failed to be re-elected: Carter and Bush. But he's doing worse than all the Presidents who did get re-elected.

    Which suggests a fairly knife-edge election.

    I think there's a lot of middle America who are keeping a low profile but who don't think Biden is up to it, who will let the Democrats be the loud mouths and then vote quietly for Trump at the election.

    As ever it's the left which make the most noise.

    Oh, that's definitely true.

    But that's probably not enough to see Trump through. Don't forget that the Democrats got 40% more votes (yes really) than their best ever midterm result in 2018.

    That's an insane increase. And tells you how much more motivated the Dems are than previously.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Ave_it said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's an interesting nugget in the US election.

    Trump is doing better - in net approval ratings - that the two US Presidents who failed to be re-elected: Carter and Bush. But he's doing worse than all the Presidents who did get re-elected.

    Which suggests a fairly knife-edge election.

    I think there's a lot of middle America who are keeping a low profile but who don't think Biden is up to it, who will let the Democrats be the loud mouths and then vote quietly for Trump at the election.

    As ever it's the left which make the most noise.

    Oh, that's definitely true.

    But that's probably not enough to see Trump through. Don't forget that the Democrats got 40% more votes (yes really) than their best ever midterm result in 2018.

    That's an insane increase. And tells you how much more motivated the Dems are than previously.
    In a fair election the Dems would win easily.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    I was given pretty low predictions for A Levels too; in retrospect, the teachers were trying to make sure I put maximum effort in so I'd be more likely to get the grades I needed to get to Cambridge.
    My beaks gave me two sets of projections: before and after my 2 E offer from Oxford 😂
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    May have called Georgia's 2nd deatg peak over too early. Provisional data has been revised a lot higher and now 7 day average is still going up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Trump presser incoming if anyone can bear it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited August 2020
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    But in this case, wouldn't you end up doing worse since they're moderating the grades down in a lot of cases.

    Somebody in the other thread said the moderation is based on looking at past results but if there are lots of new GCSEs and so on as I understand there are, it doesn't seem like they have a lot to go on.
    It does not really matter if there are new GCSEs. If the Ed Sec or OfQual decrees there should be 10 per cent grade As, 30 per cent Bs and so on, then that can be made to happen. Usually it would be done by sliding pass marks up and down, this year by reducing predicted grades.

    And this can be unfair on pupils because Mr Jones might have predicted As for everyone while Miss Smith in the neighbouring school predicted Bs for her equally smart students.

    But life is unfair. Imagine sitting A-levels today, Friday. In the South East you'd have been roasting but in other parts of the country it was quite pleasant. Some students have hay fever, others don't. Some have books and the interweb at home, others not. And so on and so forth.

    Personally, I cannot understand why the government did not allow the exams to go ahead as normal but it didn't so now school leavers are in a bit of a pickle. On aggregate, solutions are easy. At the individual level, there will be injustices.
    You can't see why the exams did not go ahead as normal?
    Really?
    Well, it wasn't because the schools were shut, because the schools were open.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Don't tell RobD he will put you down as an anti masker for suggesting the ons stats are obviously flawed
    Did you read the ONS page? Wales has figures much lower than the rest of GB.
    Nope the headline figure is so obviously wrong. When I went to tesco's today the usage was far short of 96%. There were probably 200 people there which is 1/6 of the size sample that the ons used for a couple of orders magnitude less of a population size

    200 of about 110,000 vs 1235 of 65,000,000.

    So the conclusion is either

    a) Slough is completely different to the rest of the country
    b) The ONS survey has some flaw to it

    The simpler of the two explanations is b) therefore applying Occams razor as I can't prove either a or b then it seems likely that b is the answer
    Someone posted the question up thread

    I read “have you worn a mask outside in the past week” to mean AT LEAST ONCE not always. If so I can believe 96%
    Which was also a point I made but it fell upon fallow ground. As I said I would have appeared as a yes even though I don't intend to follow the law unless absolutely forced to. Thankfully most shops here haven't even tried to enforce it. Nor have I had any Hyufd's screaming in my face but then I am a reasonably well built guy so might have an influence on them trying to pick on me
    Wearing a mask is for the protection of others, maybe think about those to whom infection would be a disaster whilst you whip round the supermarket.
    And I protect others by taking measures not to get infected myself, whereas others goto bars and risk infection. I suspect my precautions make it a lot less likely I give it to someone than the average pub goer
    Therefore wearing one for ten minutes whilst in tescos would be the icing on the cake, not a big ask
    No not happening. I already do my bit by not visiting the plague pits they wished to reopen. Its a farcical law made by a government who wanted to do something and this was something so they did it. When laws are stupid then civil disobedience is warranted.

    While I would be happily disobeying this law, I should note that I can't due to COPD and asthma and apparently am medically exempt. So sadly even though not wanting to I am complying with legislation which is a complete downer
    You could always walk into Tesco stark bollock naked if you want to protest against legislation requiring you to cover various parts of your anatomy.
    As long as you're wearing a mask, obv.
    Tesco's did I believe used to host naked shopping nights
  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Here in north Georgia almost everyone is wearing masks (except in restaurants with spacing). Non-maskers tend to be younger and mostly male.Costco will refuse entry without a mask, and many supermarkets are tending towards it, though not as strictly (yet) as Costco. Malls are not enforcing masks, though most wear them.
    Mark Drakeford, labour's first minister here in Wales has made them mandatory on public transport but not in shops, hence the poor uptake
    They're not mandatory here, though the governor recommends them. It's up to businesses to mandate them on site. One of the more nonsensical things I've seen is people who clam the whole covid thing is a left wing (or right wing) conspiracy and refuse to wear a mask as it impinges on their rights.
    I really don't get the anti-maskers. Yes, masks only reduce the risk of transmission downwards by a bit over 50%, but that is the difference between an r of 1.5 and 0.75. If people want lockdowns to end, wearing masks is a pretty modest price.

    I think nearly all spread is by aerosol in an indoor environment. There seem very few cases associated with fomites (contaminated objects). While masks are permeable to fine aerosols, they reduce velocity and thereby area of spread.

    Sure, 3 months ago when supplies were short, it wasn't the best use, but now that isn't an issue.
    Exactly.
    A trip to the supermarket will show that social distancing has ended with mask wearing.

    Still at least we're no longer hearing that mask wearing will encourage people to go shopping.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Ave_it said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's an interesting nugget in the US election.

    Trump is doing better - in net approval ratings - that the two US Presidents who failed to be re-elected: Carter and Bush. But he's doing worse than all the Presidents who did get re-elected.

    Which suggests a fairly knife-edge election.

    I think there's a lot of middle America who are keeping a low profile but who don't think Biden is up to it, who will let the Democrats be the loud mouths and then vote quietly for Trump at the election.

    As ever it's the left which make the most noise.

    In many cases you'd face social death if you said you were voting Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    dixiedean said:

    Trump presser incoming if anyone can bear it.

    China tally up to three, if I'm counting right.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
    That is a great exaggeration.Moreover, his popularity with some white working class voters is comparable to how quite a few Eastenders viewed the Kray twins.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
    That is a great exaggeration.Moreover, his popularity with some white working class voters is comparable to how quite a few Eastenders viewed the Kray twins.
    Got any polls to back that statement up with?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
    That is a great exaggeration.Moreover, his popularity with some white working class voters is comparable to how quite a few Eastenders viewed the Kray twins.
    Got any polls to back that statement up with?
    I am expressing my opinion as to how people of limited education and insight are likely to respond to the charms of an obvious villain.Others might cite the earlier example of Herman Goering.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
    That is a great exaggeration.Moreover, his popularity with some white working class voters is comparable to how quite a few Eastenders viewed the Kray twins.
    Got any polls to back that statement up with?
    I am expressing my opinion as to how people of limited education and insight are likely to respond to the charms of an obvious villain.Others might cite the earlier example of Herman Goering.
    I'll take that as a no. And would you please quit it with the Nazi references.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
    That is a great exaggeration.Moreover, his popularity with some white working class voters is comparable to how quite a few Eastenders viewed the Kray twins.
    Got any polls to back that statement up with?
    I am expressing my opinion as to how people of limited education and insight are likely to respond to the charms of an obvious villain.Others might cite the earlier example of Herman Goering.
    I'll take that as a no. And would you please quit it with the Nazi references.
    Not when they have relevance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    Trump is suggesting the biggest threat is that foreign powers could forge postal votes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
    That is a great exaggeration.Moreover, his popularity with some white working class voters is comparable to how quite a few Eastenders viewed the Kray twins.
    Got any polls to back that statement up with?
    I am expressing my opinion as to how people of limited education and insight are likely to respond to the charms of an obvious villain.Others might cite the earlier example of Herman Goering.
    I'll take that as a no. And would you please quit it with the Nazi references.
    Not when they have relevance.
    They seriously don't. Unless you are equating Boris Johnson to Herman Goering?
  • Russia is actively working against Joe Biden, according to the American intelligence establishment.

    CHINA – We assess that China prefers that President Trump – whom Beijing sees as unpredictable – does not win reelection. China has been expanding its influence efforts ahead of November 2020 to shape the policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as opposed to China’s interests, and deflect and counter criticism of China. Although China will continue to weigh the risks and benefits of aggressive action, its public rhetoric over the past few months has grown increasingly critical of the current Administration’s COVID-19 response, closure of China’s Houston Consulate, and actions on other issues. For example, it has harshly criticized the Administration’s statements and actions on Hong Kong, TikTok, the legal status of the South China Sea, and China’s efforts to dominate the 5G market. Beijing recognizes that all of these efforts might affect the presidential race.

    RUSSIA – We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia “establishment.” This is consistent with Moscow’s public criticism of him when he was Vice President for his role in the Obama Administration’s policies on Ukraine and its support for the anti-Putin opposition inside Russia. For example, pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption – including through publicizing leaked phone calls – to undermine former Vice President Biden’s candidacy and the Democratic Party. Some Kremlin-linked actors are also seeking to boost President Trump’s candidacy on social media and Russian television.

    IRAN – We assess that Iran seeks to undermine U.S. democratic institutions, President Trump, and to divide the country in advance of the 2020 elections. Iran’s efforts along these lines probably will focus on on-line influence, such as spreading disinformation on social media and recirculating anti-U.S. content. Tehran’s motivation to conduct such activities is, in part, driven by a perception that President Trump’s reelection would result in a continuation of U.S. pressure on Iran in an effort to foment regime change.

    https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2139-statement-by-ncsc-director-william-evanina-election-threat-update-for-the-american-public
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Where are Starmer's Scottish seats coming from.. No Scottish seats.. Starmer might as well star on Desert Island Discs.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    sleaze.. Labour know all about sleaze.. .. the Party is littered with examples. No party is immune from it.. not even the Lib Dems.... Jeremy Thorpe
  • Pineapple pizza now 4/6
    Yummy
This discussion has been closed.