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  • Back to COVID - All the England data I could find

    The blue-grey band represents the range of excess death estimates based on the max and min for the previous 5 years.

    image
    image

    Sorry what's the X-axis?
    Weeks - week 30 ended on 24th July
    Thanks - I just thought "11" was a bit high for early March, then realised February has four weeks :lol:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Don't tell RobD he will put you down as an anti masker for suggesting the ons stats are obviously flawed
    Did you read the ONS page? Wales has figures much lower than the rest of GB.
    Nope the headline figure is so obviously wrong. When I went to tesco's today the usage was far short of 96%. There were probably 200 people there which is 1/6 of the size sample that the ons used for a couple of orders magnitude less of a population size

    200 of about 110,000 vs 1235 of 65,000,000.

    So the conclusion is either

    a) Slough is completely different to the rest of the country
    b) The ONS survey has some flaw to it

    The simpler of the two explanations is b) therefore applying Occams razor as I can't prove either a or b then it seems likely that b is the answer
    Someone posted the question up thread

    I read “have you worn a mask outside in the past week” to mean AT LEAST ONCE not always. If so I can believe 96%
    Which was also a point I made but it fell upon fallow ground. As I said I would have appeared as a yes even though I don't intend to follow the law unless absolutely forced to. Thankfully most shops here haven't even tried to enforce it. Nor have I had any Hyufd's screaming in my face but then I am a reasonably well built guy so might have an influence on them trying to pick on me
    Wearing a mask is for the protection of others, maybe think about those to whom infection would be a disaster whilst you whip round the supermarket.
    And I protect others by taking measures not to get infected myself, whereas others goto bars and risk infection. I suspect my precautions make it a lot less likely I give it to someone than the average pub goer
    Therefore wearing one for ten minutes whilst in tescos would be the icing on the cake, not a big ask
    No not happening. I already do my bit by not visiting the plague pits they wished to reopen. Its a farcical law made by a government who wanted to do something and this was something so they did it. When laws are stupid then civil disobedience is warranted.

    While I would be happily disobeying this law, I should note that I can't due to COPD and asthma and apparently am medically exempt. So sadly even though not wanting to I am complying with legislation which is a complete downer
    You could have saved a lot of time by saying you were exempt from mask wearing.
    Why it is irrelevant as I only found out 2 days ago and I am more incensed by the whole thing. To me it seems mask wearing in shops has suddenly been bought in to try and compensate for those idiots that want to go out for a pint with friends. They are inconveniencing 100% of people for the 30% minority that still visits pubs and they can go swivel if they think I am inconveniencing myself so some people who can't do without their friday night bevy then they can go imitate the oozlum bird.
    A utilitarian would say mildly inconveniencing everyone so that all the people who work in pubs keep their jobs and their kids don’t starve in the streets would be a net gain for society.

    A libertarian would be in favour of the government taking a mild step va the excessive use of force that would be required to stop the starving children from pillaging shops for food
  • Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    ydoethur said:

    137 for 8.

    Game on

    You’re having a larf. England will never chase over 170 on this wicket against these bowlers.
    I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if England win this match.
    What's your view of chicken with pasta? I presume ,as a purist against?

    (In these heady stakes I should declare myself as a pineapple with ham vague supporter, and actually on a pizza I think the combination works best. )

    Chicken is fine with spirali, chicken with any other pasta is unacceptable.
    Ok, so how does spirali make the grade?

    Doesn't all pasta taste the same and only the shape differs? (excepting things like verde types naturally etc)
    Good Lord, Don't let @Cyclefree catch you talking like that! Pasta varies considerably in shape, thickness and in surface area, each property affecting both cooking effects and sauce adherence. In short, some pastas work much better with particular sauces.

    Chicken doesn't belong in pasta or pizza obviously.

    https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/howto/guide/perfect-pairings-how-match-pasta-shapes-sauces
    Well obviously it doesn't belong, chicken is a meat substitute for people who dont want to admit being vegetarian :)
    image
    A dire Quorn / Oetker Frankenstein. Great idea on paper, poor when eaten
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Just found a little gem on gov.uk for those who like spreadsheets and producing graphs from them:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

    Downloading the spreadsheet and it makes fascinating reading;

    Last Friday (July 31st) - rail passenger numbers were 25% of pre-pandemic levels, London Underground had 27% of pre-pandemic passengers while cycling was at 125% of pre-pandemic levels.

    Road traffic has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels (I can attest that from the A406 and the A13).

    Transport for London isn't going to be financially viable with 27% of passenger numbers on the tube and 50% of bus passengers. It also suggests the big "return to work" hasn't materialised as yet.

    I suspect we will get more coercion to normality from the Prime Minister later in the month - the transport operators will no doubt be back to Rishi with the begging bowl or there will have to be savage service cuts.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Don't tell RobD he will put you down as an anti masker for suggesting the ons stats are obviously flawed
    Did you read the ONS page? Wales has figures much lower than the rest of GB.
    Nope the headline figure is so obviously wrong. When I went to tesco's today the usage was far short of 96%. There were probably 200 people there which is 1/6 of the size sample that the ons used for a couple of orders magnitude less of a population size

    200 of about 110,000 vs 1235 of 65,000,000.

    So the conclusion is either

    a) Slough is completely different to the rest of the country
    b) The ONS survey has some flaw to it

    The simpler of the two explanations is b) therefore applying Occams razor as I can't prove either a or b then it seems likely that b is the answer
    Someone posted the question up thread

    I read “have you worn a mask outside in the past week” to mean AT LEAST ONCE not always. If so I can believe 96%
    Which was also a point I made but it fell upon fallow ground. As I said I would have appeared as a yes even though I don't intend to follow the law unless absolutely forced to. Thankfully most shops here haven't even tried to enforce it. Nor have I had any Hyufd's screaming in my face but then I am a reasonably well built guy so might have an influence on them trying to pick on me
    Wearing a mask is for the protection of others, maybe think about those to whom infection would be a disaster whilst you whip round the supermarket.
    And I protect others by taking measures not to get infected myself, whereas others goto bars and risk infection. I suspect my precautions make it a lot less likely I give it to someone than the average pub goer
    Therefore wearing one for ten minutes whilst in tescos would be the icing on the cake, not a big ask
    No not happening. I already do my bit by not visiting the plague pits they wished to reopen. Its a farcical law made by a government who wanted to do something and this was something so they did it. When laws are stupid then civil disobedience is warranted.

    While I would be happily disobeying this law, I should note that I can't due to COPD and asthma and apparently am medically exempt. So sadly even though not wanting to I am complying with legislation which is a complete downer
    You could always walk into Tesco stark bollock naked if you want to protest against legislation requiring you to cover various parts of your anatomy.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    ydoethur said:

    Wait until Thursday when if that Guardian article is correct the entire education system will suddenly implode.

    You can’t possibly trust an exam system when it is run by liars who don’t understand basic principles of assessment, statistics or administration.

    FPT: With this leak it seems that the results are going to be discredited and worthless even before students get them. It’s an absolute disaster.

    I mean, who is going to take any notice of them now? Nobody. At least with teacher assessment in the mix, small subjects may be okay but that will just screw over larger subject cohorts even more as they become manipulated out of recognition.

    So, not only are they trying their level best to kill or maim me but now they are ignoring my last couple of years’ work. Just what is the point anymore?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Wait so we have:

    Opinium: 4 points
    YouGov 6 points
    Survation: 8 points

    Anymore?

    Basically, the polls haven't moved

    Shhh...there's nothing else for OGH to run posts on other than these hyper-exciting polls - and Biden!
    Thank you for your understanding and sympathy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,367
    stodge said:

    Just found a little gem on gov.uk for those who like spreadsheets and producing graphs from them:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

    Downloading the spreadsheet and it makes fascinating reading;

    Last Friday (July 31st) - rail passenger numbers were 25% of pre-pandemic levels, London Underground had 27% of pre-pandemic passengers while cycling was at 125% of pre-pandemic levels.

    Road traffic has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels (I can attest that from the A406 and the A13).

    Transport for London isn't going to be financially viable with 27% of passenger numbers on the tube and 50% of bus passengers. It also suggests the big "return to work" hasn't materialised as yet.

    I suspect we will get more coercion to normality from the Prime Minister later in the month - the transport operators will no doubt be back to Rishi with the begging bowl or there will have to be savage service cuts.

    Most companies with offices in Central London, that I know of, are talking about next year at the earliest, for bringing back the vast majority of WFH staff.

    Some are allowing limited numbers in (max 10% usually) - usually people who don't have suitable WFH conditions.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:

    Just found a little gem on gov.uk for those who like spreadsheets and producing graphs from them:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

    Downloading the spreadsheet and it makes fascinating reading;

    Last Friday (July 31st) - rail passenger numbers were 25% of pre-pandemic levels, London Underground had 27% of pre-pandemic passengers while cycling was at 125% of pre-pandemic levels.

    Road traffic has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels (I can attest that from the A406 and the A13).

    Transport for London isn't going to be financially viable with 27% of passenger numbers on the tube and 50% of bus passengers. It also suggests the big "return to work" hasn't materialised as yet.

    I suspect we will get more coercion to normality from the Prime Minister later in the month - the transport operators will no doubt be back to Rishi with the begging bowl or there will have to be savage service cuts.

    We have come under clear pressure from the Corporation of London to return in September
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Don't tell RobD he will put you down as an anti masker for suggesting the ons stats are obviously flawed
    Did you read the ONS page? Wales has figures much lower than the rest of GB.
    Nope the headline figure is so obviously wrong. When I went to tesco's today the usage was far short of 96%. There were probably 200 people there which is 1/6 of the size sample that the ons used for a couple of orders magnitude less of a population size

    200 of about 110,000 vs 1235 of 65,000,000.

    So the conclusion is either

    a) Slough is completely different to the rest of the country
    b) The ONS survey has some flaw to it

    The simpler of the two explanations is b) therefore applying Occams razor as I can't prove either a or b then it seems likely that b is the answer
    Someone posted the question up thread

    I read “have you worn a mask outside in the past week” to mean AT LEAST ONCE not always. If so I can believe 96%
    Which was also a point I made but it fell upon fallow ground. As I said I would have appeared as a yes even though I don't intend to follow the law unless absolutely forced to. Thankfully most shops here haven't even tried to enforce it. Nor have I had any Hyufd's screaming in my face but then I am a reasonably well built guy so might have an influence on them trying to pick on me
    Wearing a mask is for the protection of others, maybe think about those to whom infection would be a disaster whilst you whip round the supermarket.
    And I protect others by taking measures not to get infected myself, whereas others goto bars and risk infection. I suspect my precautions make it a lot less likely I give it to someone than the average pub goer
    Therefore wearing one for ten minutes whilst in tescos would be the icing on the cake, not a big ask
    No not happening. I already do my bit by not visiting the plague pits they wished to reopen. Its a farcical law made by a government who wanted to do something and this was something so they did it. When laws are stupid then civil disobedience is warranted.

    While I would be happily disobeying this law, I should note that I can't due to COPD and asthma and apparently am medically exempt. So sadly even though not wanting to I am complying with legislation which is a complete downer
    You could always walk into Tesco stark bollock naked if you want to protest against legislation requiring you to cover various parts of your anatomy.
    Wearing a mask to cover his nether regions would be more impactful
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    stodge said:

    Just found a little gem on gov.uk for those who like spreadsheets and producing graphs from them:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

    Downloading the spreadsheet and it makes fascinating reading;

    Last Friday (July 31st) - rail passenger numbers were 25% of pre-pandemic levels, London Underground had 27% of pre-pandemic passengers while cycling was at 125% of pre-pandemic levels.

    Road traffic has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels (I can attest that from the A406 and the A13).

    Transport for London isn't going to be financially viable with 27% of passenger numbers on the tube and 50% of bus passengers. It also suggests the big "return to work" hasn't materialised as yet.

    I suspect we will get more coercion to normality from the Prime Minister later in the month - the transport operators will no doubt be back to Rishi with the begging bowl or there will have to be savage service cuts.

    Most companies with offices in Central London, that I know of, are talking about next year at the earliest, for bringing back the vast majority of WFH staff.

    Some are allowing limited numbers in (max 10% usually) - usually people who don't have suitable WFH conditions.
    I'm sure that the 2 people in our office today enjoyed the experience. 2 out of over 400.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we get told that the offices will be closing again. Or only opening a couple of days each week.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    "Johnson is the only female and Black person on the court. The rest of the justices are White men."

    The scum.

    Does sound like a crap law though. Perhaps the legislatures should do something?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898



    Most companies with offices in Central London, that I know of, are talking about next year at the earliest, for bringing back the vast majority of WFH staff.

    Some are allowing limited numbers in (max 10% usually) - usually people who don't have suitable WFH conditions.

    A fascinating little piece on the BBC which may or may not be accurate but it shows some thinking apart from the "get back to your desk" mentality of the Daily Mail and others:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-dc2d6e2d-3ab4-42de-8d03-bb7eda5fff8e

  • Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Don't tell RobD he will put you down as an anti masker for suggesting the ons stats are obviously flawed
    Did you read the ONS page? Wales has figures much lower than the rest of GB.
    Nope the headline figure is so obviously wrong. When I went to tesco's today the usage was far short of 96%. There were probably 200 people there which is 1/6 of the size sample that the ons used for a couple of orders magnitude less of a population size

    200 of about 110,000 vs 1235 of 65,000,000.

    So the conclusion is either

    a) Slough is completely different to the rest of the country
    b) The ONS survey has some flaw to it

    The simpler of the two explanations is b) therefore applying Occams razor as I can't prove either a or b then it seems likely that b is the answer
    Someone posted the question up thread

    I read “have you worn a mask outside in the past week” to mean AT LEAST ONCE not always. If so I can believe 96%
    Which was also a point I made but it fell upon fallow ground. As I said I would have appeared as a yes even though I don't intend to follow the law unless absolutely forced to. Thankfully most shops here haven't even tried to enforce it. Nor have I had any Hyufd's screaming in my face but then I am a reasonably well built guy so might have an influence on them trying to pick on me
    Wearing a mask is for the protection of others, maybe think about those to whom infection would be a disaster whilst you whip round the supermarket.
    And I protect others by taking measures not to get infected myself, whereas others goto bars and risk infection. I suspect my precautions make it a lot less likely I give it to someone than the average pub goer
    Therefore wearing one for ten minutes whilst in tescos would be the icing on the cake, not a big ask
    No not happening. I already do my bit by not visiting the plague pits they wished to reopen. Its a farcical law made by a government who wanted to do something and this was something so they did it. When laws are stupid then civil disobedience is warranted.

    While I would be happily disobeying this law, I should note that I can't due to COPD and asthma and apparently am medically exempt. So sadly even though not wanting to I am complying with legislation which is a complete downer
    You could always walk into Tesco stark bollock naked if you want to protest against legislation requiring you to cover various parts of your anatomy.
    No nude to be reed!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Wait so we have:

    Opinium: 4 points
    YouGov 6 points
    Survation: 8 points

    Anymore?

    Basically, the polls haven't moved

    Shhh...there's nothing else for OGH to run posts on other than these hyper-exciting polls - and Biden!
    Thank you for your understanding and sympathy.
    Nothing on AV coming up? :(
  • We just need a 2 pointer and we have the set

    2

    4

    6

    8

    who do I appreciate

    Keir Starmer

    Daddy
  • RobD said:

    Wait so we have:

    Opinium: 4 points
    YouGov 6 points
    Survation: 8 points

    Anymore?

    Basically, the polls haven't moved

    Shhh...there's nothing else for OGH to run posts on other than these hyper-exciting polls - and Biden!
    Thank you for your understanding and sympathy.
    Nothing on AV coming up? :(
    Adult videos??
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    RobD said:

    "Johnson is the only female and Black person on the court. The rest of the justices are White men."

    The scum.
    I'm sure it's just an amazing coincidence.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RE: the discussion about visiting pubs and social distancing. I think some people miss the point on this by treating "2m" as some sort of magic distance to prevent infection. I think it is likely the reality that if you socialise with any infected person for any length of time you are likely to become infected (setting aside arguments about immunity etc). Or at least the likelihood that you get infected will be largely unaffected by whether you distance from them or not. In other words the key risk comes pure and simply from whether your social companion has Covid.

    The key to visiting pubs etc is to stay in your group. If nobody in your group has COVID then you are basically safe. If someone has it then there is a pretty high chance you will get it, but the infection spread will (within the pub) be contained within your group (of course then there are risks of derivative spread). The issue with social distancing is when you begin to mix with other groups, generally on a fleeting basis. It is then that the 2m thing becomes really important, because if groups are mixing then it becomes much more a law of averages thing, and the limits to any potential spread within the pub/restaurant increase exponentially.

    A further corollary of all this is that if you go out socialising you are best off if you generally stick within the same social groups on each occasion (this is linked to the derivative issue). It is no good socialising with one group of people on a Monday, a different group on a Tuesday, a further group on a Wednesday etc etc.

    Or that's my interpretation of the situation anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Here in north Georgia almost everyone is wearing masks (except in restaurants with spacing). Non-maskers tend to be younger and mostly male.Costco will refuse entry without a mask, and many supermarkets are tending towards it, though not as strictly (yet) as Costco. Malls are not enforcing masks, though most wear them.
    Mark Drakeford, labour's first minister here in Wales has made them mandatory on public transport but not in shops, hence the poor uptake
    They're not mandatory here, though the governor recommends them. It's up to businesses to mandate them on site. One of the more nonsensical things I've seen is people who clam the whole covid thing is a left wing (or right wing) conspiracy and refuse to wear a mask as it impinges on their rights.
    I really don't get the anti-maskers. Yes, masks only reduce the risk of transmission downwards by a bit over 50%, but that is the difference between an r of 1.5 and 0.75. If people want lockdowns to end, wearing masks is a pretty modest price.

    I think nearly all spread is by aerosol in an indoor environment. There seem very few cases associated with fomites (contaminated objects). While masks are permeable to fine aerosols, they reduce velocity and thereby area of spread.

    Sure, 3 months ago when supplies were short, it wasn't the best use, but now that isn't an issue.
    Exactly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited August 2020
    USA Dem VP slot betting and WTF?

    Kamala Harris: 2.06
    Susan Rice: 3.15
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 10
    Gretchen Whitmer: 15.5
    Tammy Duckworth: 17.5
    Val Demings: 20
    Elizabeth Warren: 27
    Karen Bass: 30
    Michelle Obama: 34
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 65
    Hillary Clinton: 110
    Gina Raimondo: 120
    Stacey Abrams: 170
    Barack Obama: 320

    What is going on with Keisha Lance Bottoms and Gretchen Whitmer who you could not give away yesterday? Of course, we are due an announcement next week so it is likely someone knows, but if you did know, you'd take all the money, not just some of it, so it can't be that Joe Biden has opened a Betfair account (ETA actually it could if all the money was taken but layers have put some back). Of course, it is a very thin market and it may be that layers are getting cold feet rather than adventurous punters. My guess it is someone overreacting to summary pieces saying these are the last few under consideration, a list largely unchanged for weeks.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    alex_ said:

    RE: the discussion about visiting pubs and social distancing. I think some people miss the point on this by treating "2m" as some sort of magic distance to prevent infection. I think it is likely the reality that if you socialise with any infected person for any length of time you are likely to become infected (setting aside arguments about immunity etc). Or at least the likelihood that you get infected will be largely unaffected by whether you distance from them or not. In other words the key risk comes pure and simply from whether your social companion has Covid.

    The key to visiting pubs etc is to stay in your group. If nobody in your group has COVID then you are basically safe. If someone has it then there is a pretty high chance you will get it, but the infection spread will (within the pub) be contained within your group (of course then there are risks of derivative spread). The issue with social distancing is when you begin to mix with other groups, generally on a fleeting basis. It is then that the 2m thing becomes really important, because if groups are mixing then it becomes much more a law of averages thing, and the limits to any potential spread within the pub/restaurant increase exponentially.

    A further corollary of all this is that if you go out socialising you are best off if you generally stick within the same social groups on each occasion (this is linked to the derivative issue). It is no good socialising with one group of people on a Monday, a different group on a Tuesday, a further group on a Wednesday etc etc.

    Or that's my interpretation of the situation anyway.

    I have to disagree. If there is an infected person in the pub everyone in the place is at risk of catching it. Just look at the numbers from Aberdeen.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Homoerotic changing room 'banter' also low risk, virologists confirm.

    https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1291831744446988289?s=20

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RobD said:

    "Johnson is the only female and Black person on the court. The rest of the justices are White men."

    The scum.

    Does sound like a crap law though. Perhaps the legislatures should do something?
    It's fucking Louisiana. It's working exactly as intended.
  • RobD said:

    "Johnson is the only female and Black person on the court. The rest of the justices are White men."

    The scum.

    Does sound like a crap law though. Perhaps the legislatures should do something?
    It is a crap law, as it was in its guise as Bill Clinton's "3 strikes" law. I've never understood what progressives saw in Clinton, at least till you remember the other lot.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:
    It’s a principle accepted by a much wider group of countries, not a specific “EU-good” thing.

    We will need to reach an agreement to replace the Dublin Agreement.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Covid.
    People in general aren't thinking straight. We are in trauma response. So expecting logic is pointless.
  • Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It’s a principle accepted by a much wider group of countries, not a specific “EU-good” thing.

    We will need to reach an agreement to replace the Dublin Agreement.
    We might but who needs to reach an agreement with us? Are floods of asylum seekers using Britain as a staging post on the way to Ireland or Germany?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    USA Dem VP slot betting and WTF?

    Kamala Harris: 2.06
    Susan Rice: 3.15
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 10
    Gretchen Whitmer: 15.5
    Tammy Duckworth: 17.5
    Val Demings: 20
    Elizabeth Warren: 27
    Karen Bass: 30
    Michelle Obama: 34
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 65
    Hillary Clinton: 110
    Gina Raimondo: 120
    Stacey Abrams: 170
    Barack Obama: 320

    What is going on with Keisha Lance Bottoms and Gretchen Whitmer who you could not give away yesterday? Of course, we are due an announcement next week so it is likely someone knows, but if you did know, you'd take all the money, not just some of it, so it can't be that Joe Biden has opened a Betfair account (ETA actually it could if all the money was taken but layers have put some back). Of course, it is a very thin market and it may be that layers are getting cold feet rather than adventurous punters. My guess it is someone overreacting to summary pieces saying these are the last few under consideration, a list largely unchanged for weeks.

    I seem to recall reading somewhere in last day or two that Whitmer was still in the mix and doing better than expected in the assessment process. Can't remember where though.
  • https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1291837770080583688

    This is the kind of Twitter PR Labour needs
  • RobD said:

    I have to admit I don't understand the polling. Before Johnson became Tory leader the party was behind in the polls. Under his leadership the party regained top spot, and he won them a decent working majority in an election that emphasised his personal brand rather than the party. Now he has seemingly become unpopular, yet the party retains its popularity.

    Has he become unpopular? Divisive, perhaps, but I don't think that is different from before the election.
    I agree with RobD for once.

    Johnson is (very) popular with roughly 50% of the population and despised by the other half. I see little evidence this has changed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1291837770080583688

    This is the kind of Twitter PR Labour needs

    Wouldn't it have been the same under any president?
  • Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    But that's a prediction for what will happen, not a graph of what has happened.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    RE: the discussion about visiting pubs and social distancing. I think some people miss the point on this by treating "2m" as some sort of magic distance to prevent infection. I think it is likely the reality that if you socialise with any infected person for any length of time you are likely to become infected (setting aside arguments about immunity etc). Or at least the likelihood that you get infected will be largely unaffected by whether you distance from them or not. In other words the key risk comes pure and simply from whether your social companion has Covid.

    The key to visiting pubs etc is to stay in your group. If nobody in your group has COVID then you are basically safe. If someone has it then there is a pretty high chance you will get it, but the infection spread will (within the pub) be contained within your group (of course then there are risks of derivative spread). The issue with social distancing is when you begin to mix with other groups, generally on a fleeting basis. It is then that the 2m thing becomes really important, because if groups are mixing then it becomes much more a law of averages thing, and the limits to any potential spread within the pub/restaurant increase exponentially.

    A further corollary of all this is that if you go out socialising you are best off if you generally stick within the same social groups on each occasion (this is linked to the derivative issue). It is no good socialising with one group of people on a Monday, a different group on a Tuesday, a further group on a Wednesday etc etc.

    Or that's my interpretation of the situation anyway.

    I have to disagree. If there is an infected person in the pub everyone in the place is at risk of catching it. Just look at the numbers from Aberdeen.
    That would depend on whether the pubs were trying to take measures to keep groups apart, and/or whether groups were making efforts to remain separate, wouldn’t it?

    All i’m saying is that it is possible for individuals to visit pubs and take reasonable precautions. Probably pub selection is quite important as well. But maintaining 2m distance from your specific social companions is not likely to be of great importance.i
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It’s a principle accepted by a much wider group of countries, not a specific “EU-good” thing.

    We will need to reach an agreement to replace the Dublin Agreement.
    We might but who needs to reach an agreement with us? Are floods of asylum seekers using Britain as a staging post on the way to Ireland or Germany?
    Because we have a repeat game relationship.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    With the news that Preston is the latest city to have Covid restrictions tightened, millions of people discover that Preston is a city.
  • RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    Within the EU we had a route to stop this, we chose not to do anything, just like with other immigration.

    Now we have no route and we're destroying our relationships in the process.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    Within the EU we had a route to stop this, we chose not to do anything, just like with other immigration.

    Now we have no route and we're destroying our relationships in the process.
    Did we? The Dublin agreement was even reached and they ignored it.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    But the French shut the camp down after pressure from the UK.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    Within the EU we had a route to stop this, we chose not to do anything, just like with other immigration.

    Now we have no route and we're destroying our relationships in the process.
    Did we? The Dublin agreement was even reached and they ignored it.
    The UK Government chose to do nothing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/05/899525589/louisiana-supreme-court-wont-review-life-sentence-for-man-who-stole-hedge-clippe


    Going to go out on a limb here and say I disagree with a whole life sentence for stealing hedge clippers.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    But who do we think will be aligned with majority public opinion?

    My money would be on Priti.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    Within the EU we had a route to stop this, we chose not to do anything, just like with other immigration.

    Now we have no route and we're destroying our relationships in the process.
    Did we? The Dublin agreement was even reached and they ignored it.
    The UK Government chose to do nothing.
    What are you basing that claim on? Weren't they involved in that agreement?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    Within the EU we had a route to stop this, we chose not to do anything, just like with other immigration.

    Now we have no route and we're destroying our relationships in the process.
    Did we? The Dublin agreement was even reached and they ignored it.
    The UK Government chose to do nothing.
    What are you basing that claim on? Weren't they involved in that agreement?
    The UK Government chose not to act on illegal immigrants coming over the channel. Now they claim to care.
  • How come we're now being redirected to vf.vanillacommunity.com from politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com, @MikeSmithson?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    MY concern is a completely dysfunctional USA from Election Day to Inauguration Day. Obviously if Trump wins it won't be a problem but if it's very close or if he loses, I suspect we will get very little co-operation between the departing Trump and the incoming Biden administrations.

    George W Bush's remarks the day after Obama won in 2008 are the epitome of class and at a very difficult time economically it was vital the transition between administrations went smoothly.

    I just can't see Trump wanting to do anything to help Biden - rather, I suspect Biden will enter to a scorched Earth West Wing on January 20th 2021 and I suspect the Trump diehards will have deleted or destroyed many records.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    Within the EU we had a route to stop this, we chose not to do anything, just like with other immigration.

    Now we have no route and we're destroying our relationships in the process.
    Did we? The Dublin agreement was even reached and they ignored it.
    The UK Government chose to do nothing.
    What are you basing that claim on? Weren't they involved in that agreement?
    The UK Government chose not to act on illegal immigrants coming over the channel. Now they claim to care.
    They've been acting in that area for decades. The Sangatte camp was only shut down after pressure from the UK government.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,367

    With the news that Preston is the latest city to have Covid restrictions tightened, millions of people discover that Preston is a city.

    Enoch Soames was from Preston.
  • RobD said:

    "Johnson is the only female and Black person on the court. The rest of the justices are White men."

    The scum.

    Does sound like a crap law though. Perhaps the legislatures should do something?
    It is a crap law, as it was in its guise as Bill Clinton's "3 strikes" law. I've never understood what progressives saw in Clinton, at least till you remember the other lot.
    On cue, there are complaints that the British version is not working.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/07/thousands-serial-burglars-escaping-mandatory-three-year-jail/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    Seems to me that if we want to stop the illegal crossings we need to change our relationship with the EU and France but right now we're doing our best to piss them all off.

    Funny how these things come back to bite you.

    They've been at this for years, with or without the EU. Remember Sangatte?
    But the French shut the camp down after pressure from the UK.
    Only for a new one to pop up just down the road.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    I see the President of the Ivory Coast is planning to run for a third term despite a two term limit, under the ever popular 'we've had a constitutional change, so my other terms don't count' method of maintaining control. Personally I preferred Putin's creative work around for getting around term limits the first time he had that issue, but you cannot beat the classics. And the great thing is you can always have a new constituion to reset the clock again if needed.
  • https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1291846915492061185

    THIS IS NOT A GOOD THING, Jesus Christ
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    stodge said:

    Just found a little gem on gov.uk for those who like spreadsheets and producing graphs from them:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

    Downloading the spreadsheet and it makes fascinating reading;

    Last Friday (July 31st) - rail passenger numbers were 25% of pre-pandemic levels, London Underground had 27% of pre-pandemic passengers while cycling was at 125% of pre-pandemic levels.

    Road traffic has returned to almost pre-pandemic levels (I can attest that from the A406 and the A13).

    Transport for London isn't going to be financially viable with 27% of passenger numbers on the tube and 50% of bus passengers. It also suggests the big "return to work" hasn't materialised as yet.

    I suspect we will get more coercion to normality from the Prime Minister later in the month - the transport operators will no doubt be back to Rishi with the begging bowl or there will have to be savage service cuts.

    The Tyne and Wear metro is not financially viable on current passenger numbers either. I believe it has been bailed out by the Government twice since lockdown began.
  • Until we elect a party that's not interested in seeing house prices continue to rise, we will never resolve the housing crisis.

    Build more houses, increase supply, cut prices. Record prices is no good for anyone trying to buy a house, especially those under 35.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    With the news that Preston is the latest city to have Covid restrictions tightened, millions of people discover that Preston is a city.

    It’s not really a city. Just like Sunderland is not really a city.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It’s a principle accepted by a much wider group of countries, not a specific “EU-good” thing.

    We will need to reach an agreement to replace the Dublin Agreement.
    We might but who needs to reach an agreement with us? Are floods of asylum seekers using Britain as a staging post on the way to Ireland or Germany?
    Because we have a repeat game relationship.
    Please don't make fun of me, but I don't understand what that means?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    edited August 2020
    From an apparently terrible BBC article:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53699511

    "In 2019, some 677,000 people moved to the UK as long-term immigrants, for reasons such as work or study.

    There were also 49,000 asylum applications.

    The number of asylum seekers arriving and applying to stay in other European nations is far, far higher than in the UK. Last year, some 165,600 sought asylum in Germany, 129,000 in France and 118,000 in Spain."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Trump seems to be running ads against himself.

    https://twitter.com/AgentSoulful007/status/1291788052092919811
  • CatMan said:

    From an apparently terrible BBC article:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53699511

    "In 2019, some 677,000 people moved to the UK as long-term immigrants, for reasons such as work or study.

    There were also 49,000 asylum applications.

    The number of asylum seekers arriving and applying to stay in other European nations is far, far higher than in the UK. Last year, some 165,600 sought asylum in Germany, 129,000 in France and 118,000 in Spain."

    Why would you want to come here is what I want to know. We couldn't make it clearer we hate people coming from abroad, just take a look at the Daily Mail or Express every week for the past few years to see.
  • Trump seems to be running ads against himself.

    https://twitter.com/AgentSoulful007/status/1291788052092919811

    "Make America Great Again" - ok vote in Biden then, Trump has had five years to do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1291846915492061185

    THIS IS NOT A GOOD THING, Jesus Christ

    Looks like stamp duty cut was a mistake then.

    Buy to let and 2nd home rush on by sounds it from other articles I've seen.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    81% rise in benefit scroungers (that's the correct term for them isn't it?)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53697256
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Trump seems to be running ads against himself.

    https://twitter.com/AgentSoulful007/status/1291788052092919811

    "Make America Great Again" - ok vote in Biden then, Trump has had five years to do it.
    Don't let them divide us says the advert and then cuts to the Trump/Pence sign.

    Masterful.
  • CatMan said:

    81% rise in benefit scroungers (that's the correct term for them isn't it?)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53697256

    Where's the Daily Mail?
  • https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    CatMan said:

    81% rise in benefit scroungers (that's the correct term for them isn't it?)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53697256

    Where's the Daily Mail?
    Millions are about to find out what it's really like living in a country where the safety net is cut to the bone.
  • It's really becoming harder and harder for me to reconcile anything Corbyn did with the attitude he has taken since the election. He could have just left but instead he has to stick around like a bad smell.
  • CatMan said:

    81% rise in benefit scroungers (that's the correct term for them isn't it?)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53697256

    Where's the Daily Mail?
    Millions are about to find out what it's really like living in a country where the safety net is cut to the bone.
    Well said mate.
  • Until we elect a party that's not interested in seeing house prices continue to rise, we will never resolve the housing crisis.

    Build more houses, increase supply, cut prices. Record prices is no good for anyone trying to buy a house, especially those under 35.

    Lol off topic, really?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1291846915492061185

    THIS IS NOT A GOOD THING, Jesus Christ

    Looks like stamp duty cut was a mistake then.

    Buy to let and 2nd home rush on by sounds it from other articles I've seen.
    What goes up goes up and up it seems
  • https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    The predicted grades show a pattern of higher achievement than has actually occurred in recent years, so either this years cohort is full of geniuses or teachers' predictions are off, and too high.

    What Boulton is saying is that really this does not matter very much. If the purpose of A-levels is to funnel teenagers into university, and there are so many university places to fill, and more places for home students this year, then let them in. The corollary is this will likely happen even after grades are reduced, so there's not much point in upsetting people by reducing them.
  • https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1291758320462725120

    0.01% of our GDP possibly saved, just a bit of capitulation to go
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    CatMan said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It’s a principle accepted by a much wider group of countries, not a specific “EU-good” thing.

    We will need to reach an agreement to replace the Dublin Agreement.
    We might but who needs to reach an agreement with us? Are floods of asylum seekers using Britain as a staging post on the way to Ireland or Germany?
    Because we have a repeat game relationship.
    Please don't make fun of me, but I don't understand what that means?
    We are going to have multiple interactions with them on multiple topics for many years.

    In a single transaction (“a single game”) it optimises your total return to cheat and steal. However if there is an indefinite series of interactions there is value to being collaborative as this will optimise total return over time. Hence if a deal on this is of value to us it is worth France doing a deal because they will get pay back elsewhere

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited August 2020
    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    But in this case, wouldn't you end up doing worse since they're moderating the grades down in a lot of cases.

    Somebody in the other thread said the moderation is based on looking at past results but if there are lots of new GCSEs and so on as I understand there are, it doesn't seem like they have a lot to go on.
  • It does seem very stupid and dangerous to not allow appeals.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Christ. Diane Abbott handwringing on Newsnight.

    Starmer needs to get a tighter grip on who speaks for Labour on TV.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It's anecdotoclock: Plenty of folk sat in the beer garden of our local boozer.

    I then saw someone heading in to the convenience store. Without a face covering. Dickhead.

    Little evidence of face masks in shops here in Wales
    Don't tell RobD he will put you down as an anti masker for suggesting the ons stats are obviously flawed
    Did you read the ONS page? Wales has figures much lower than the rest of GB.
    Nope the headline figure is so obviously wrong. When I went to tesco's today the usage was far short of 96%. There were probably 200 people there which is 1/6 of the size sample that the ons used for a couple of orders magnitude less of a population size

    200 of about 110,000 vs 1235 of 65,000,000.

    So the conclusion is either

    a) Slough is completely different to the rest of the country
    b) The ONS survey has some flaw to it

    The simpler of the two explanations is b) therefore applying Occams razor as I can't prove either a or b then it seems likely that b is the answer
    Someone posted the question up thread

    I read “have you worn a mask outside in the past week” to mean AT LEAST ONCE not always. If so I can believe 96%
    Which was also a point I made but it fell upon fallow ground. As I said I would have appeared as a yes even though I don't intend to follow the law unless absolutely forced to. Thankfully most shops here haven't even tried to enforce it. Nor have I had any Hyufd's screaming in my face but then I am a reasonably well built guy so might have an influence on them trying to pick on me
    Wearing a mask is for the protection of others, maybe think about those to whom infection would be a disaster whilst you whip round the supermarket.
    And I protect others by taking measures not to get infected myself, whereas others goto bars and risk infection. I suspect my precautions make it a lot less likely I give it to someone than the average pub goer
    Therefore wearing one for ten minutes whilst in tescos would be the icing on the cake, not a big ask
    No not happening. I already do my bit by not visiting the plague pits they wished to reopen. Its a farcical law made by a government who wanted to do something and this was something so they did it. When laws are stupid then civil disobedience is warranted.

    While I would be happily disobeying this law, I should note that I can't due to COPD and asthma and apparently am medically exempt. So sadly even though not wanting to I am complying with legislation which is a complete downer
    You could always walk into Tesco stark bollock naked if you want to protest against legislation requiring you to cover various parts of your anatomy.
    As long as you're wearing a mask, obv.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Christ. Diane Abbott handwringing on Newsnight.

    Starmer needs to get a tighter grip on who speaks for Labour on TV.

    Here's why the Tories are 7 points ahead
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    But in this case, wouldn't you end up doing worse since they're moderating the grades down in a lot of cases.
    Well no, I'd take the exam sitting in November, however, in the same way teachers have negative agendas they also have positive ones, usually a lot more of those. I'm interested to see what evidence is going to be used for the grade changes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    It does seem very stupid and dangerous to not allow appeals.

    I think they are now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    edited August 2020
    O/T

    "‘White privilege’: an elite ideology
    Identity politics destroys class solidarity, and that suits the powerful just fine.
    Tom Slater"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/08/07/white-privilege-an-elite-ideology/
  • MaxPB said:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1291850112138870787

    Okay stupid question time, why can't we just trust teacher predictions for grades?

    Teachers have agendas. I was predicted two Bs and two Cs for my A-Levels, I got 3As and a B in the end.
    But in this case, wouldn't you end up doing worse since they're moderating the grades down in a lot of cases.

    Somebody in the other thread said the moderation is based on looking at past results but if there are lots of new GCSEs and so on as I understand there are, it doesn't seem like they have a lot to go on.
    It does not really matter if there are new GCSEs. If the Ed Sec or OfQual decrees there should be 10 per cent grade As, 30 per cent Bs and so on, then that can be made to happen. Usually it would be done by sliding pass marks up and down, this year by reducing predicted grades.

    And this can be unfair on pupils because Mr Jones might have predicted As for everyone while Miss Smith in the neighbouring school predicted Bs for her equally smart students.

    But life is unfair. Imagine sitting A-levels today, Friday. In the South East you'd have been roasting but in other parts of the country it was quite pleasant. Some students have hay fever, others don't. Some have books and the interweb at home, others not. And so on and so forth.

    Personally, I cannot understand why the government did not allow the exams to go ahead as normal but it didn't so now school leavers are in a bit of a pickle. On aggregate, solutions are easy. At the individual level, there will be injustices.
  • USA Dem VP slot betting and WTF?

    Kamala Harris: 2.06
    Susan Rice: 3.15
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 10
    Gretchen Whitmer: 15.5
    Tammy Duckworth: 17.5
    Val Demings: 20
    Elizabeth Warren: 27
    Karen Bass: 30
    Michelle Obama: 34
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 65
    Hillary Clinton: 110
    Gina Raimondo: 120
    Stacey Abrams: 170
    Barack Obama: 320

    What is going on with Keisha Lance Bottoms and Gretchen Whitmer who you could not give away yesterday? Of course, we are due an announcement next week so it is likely someone knows, but if you did know, you'd take all the money, not just some of it, so it can't be that Joe Biden has opened a Betfair account (ETA actually it could if all the money was taken but layers have put some back). Of course, it is a very thin market and it may be that layers are getting cold feet rather than adventurous punters. My guess it is someone overreacting to summary pieces saying these are the last few under consideration, a list largely unchanged for weeks.

    I seem to recall reading somewhere in last day or two that Whitmer was still in the mix and doing better than expected in the assessment process. Can't remember where though.
    Both women are available at bigger prices with traditional bookmakers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    Here's an interesting nugget in the US election.

    Trump is doing better - in net approval ratings - that the two US Presidents who failed to be re-elected: Carter and Bush. But he's doing worse than all the Presidents who did get re-elected.

    Which suggests a fairly knife-edge election.
This discussion has been closed.