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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In light of the release tomorrow by the Intelligence and Security Committee of the delayed report on Russian interference in British politics, it might be worth remembering that much hyped reports tend not to be as exciting as some hope or fear - as here: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/26/what-can-we-expect-from-the-planned-brexit-inquiry/.

    Rifkind probably had it right at the weekend - it was withheld not because of its contents, but because most of the work on it had been done by Grieve and Boris was being petty and spiteful.
    I fear it will be a summary of the sorts of things we could all read in the papers at the time. We know the Russians interfered but I doubt there will be much forensic analysis of how.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Omnium said:

    LadyG said:

    Central London Economic Catastrophe Update


    So, today, I went for a ten mile walk all the way around the West End then up to King's X. Just to see how bad things are.

    Conclusion? Very bad in places, but there are grounds for optimism.

    First: Marylebone (mainly the High Street). This luxe area was never gonna look too run down and it doesn't. But at least one in ten restaurants/shops look like they've gone for good, and at least 30% are still closed so who knows. But it wasn't deserted, on this lovely sunny day, there were quite a few drinkers, shoppers, it was like a nice Sunday

    Down to Oxford Street, via St Christopher's Place: about the same. A quiet Sunday. Nearly all shops and cafes open. A general sense of relief and anticipation.

    Mayfair was dead quiet. Bond Street was desolate. Not enough foreign tourists? No Arabs, no Chinese.

    By contrast Soho, from Carnaby to Old Compton Street, was positively hopping. A carnival vibe. All the streets laid with tables, lots of drinkers, most pubs open, some doing a roaring trade. Real buzz.

    Covent Garden was less good. Around the Market there were some nice vibes - impromptu beer gardens - in the streets beyond, much is closed. They really need the Opera House, the museums and the theatres to reopen soon.

    Holborn and Bloomsbury were quiet, but not eerily so. Not like lockdown.

    Finally, and this was my biggest test: the new King's Cross development. I was expecting the worst here, as it relies entirely on students, tourists, people on the eurostar, and yet it was modestly rocking. The bars were full, you couuldn't get a table, at least half the restaurants have reopened, some are doing a bustling takeaway trade.

    Nearly all the customers seemed to be foreign. Where did they come from?

    I dunno.

    In conclusion, west central London and mid London have suffered, and are still struggling but it could be a lot worse. It is not dystopia.

    Next time I will have to go look at east Central London, the City, Shoreditch, Borough, etc.

    I am slightly cheered.

    Mayfair's an odd district. Offices and very rich. Strong middle eastern contingent, but mainly just the rich element.

    I can tell you that Edgeware Road which is perhaps more representative of the middle eastern Londoners generally (albeit still the rich end) seems in a healthy state. I can also report an aura of astonishing good-will in the area that pervades all of this. Everyone in the shops as customers or staff are pretty damned happy about the newfound respect that everyone is showing for everyone else. People are saying 'thank you' and meaning it for all the little services that were previously ignored.
    The City and Canary Wharf are particularly empty according to various reports.
    Bankers all still working from home for the foreseeable.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/20/rbs-tells-50000-workers-not-return-office-2021/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    Andy_JS said:

    "Lockdown may cost 200,000 lives, government report shows

    Research shines a light on the reasons why the Government has been keen to lift lockdown, in spite of experts claiming it happened too soon"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/19/lockdown-may-cost-200k-lives-government-report-shows/

    My own back-of-the-envelope estimate was 200-350 kilodeaths. But of course we'll never know for sure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    isam said:

    Parody account of Sir Keir, looks like it's attacking him from the left.

    The problem with attacking this impression of Diane Abbott for being racist is that the voice being impersonated could be of any race, it just sounds like an southern English accent;I wouldn't you could tell the colour of Abbott's skin from her voice. If Jan Ravens had done a Jim Davidson-esque "Chalky", which sounded nothing like DA, getting sums wrong, that would have been a racist impression in my opinion. What the extreme left are doing is making absolutely everyone a racist except themselves

    ttps://twitter.com/TheBeigeSirKeir/status/1285164805905620995?s=20

    Which is rather ironic, given how racist some of the hard left have been in the recent past.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    No it’s how someone who doesn’t care what he looks like dresses when he wants to go for a long walk in the sun

    Sun hat: check
    Comfortable shoes: check
    Walking stick: check
    Yeah right. The slovenly dress, the reported frequent cursing and 'shocking' statements, the obvious leaks to ensure stories stay on him and his words, it all fits the image of a childish rebel, someone who so doesn't care what others think that they feel the need to demonstrate how they don't care what others think all the time, which is to say they clearly do care what others think.

    It's a fine line, to be sure, and opinions will vary, but like art and pornography I think most can tell the difference even when hard to quantify it sometimes.
    I have been trying to think what is the inspiration for Cummings' strange garb and I have decided that it is Donatello's David. Perhaps he sees himself as a modern day David slaying the Giant of the liberal elite?

    Or perhaps his eyesight is still wonky and he doesn't realise what a plonker he looks.
    Were he merely often sloppily dressed I'd think nothing of it, many are including me, but combine it with his needy, attention seeking language and provocative approach to things and it says to me the dress is a part of it.
    It is. He went to public school, has wealthy parents, went to Oxford, married a rich journalist whose father lives in a castle. He knows how posh people dress and behave. He deliberately dresses as a slob, or in clothes like the picture, not to dress down, but rather because he can. It is a deliberate statement of his contrived, contrarian persona. He dresses in a way that no working class, or middle class person could. He thereby establishes his superiority, like a lion pissing on a tree.
    Triggered by someone's outfit, really?
    When someone going for a walk (or a drive) triggers such massive outrage, I figure that he’s probably doing a good job of reforming the standing bureaucracy, as the PM has asked him to do.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680

    I don't recall anyone saying Cummings was bigger than Brexit, Iraq or 9/11. I remember people saying it was this Government's Black Wednesday - and that is still to be seen

    @Stark_Dawning and @rpjs were saying it in the thread I linked to before.

    Apparently not to many people were affected directly by 9/11, Brexit or Iraq which is why Cummings was the bigger story. I kid you not.
    Covid-19 has affected the lives of vastly more British people than 9/11, the invasion of Iraq or Brexit - ridiculous to assert otherwise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    No it’s how someone who doesn’t care what he looks like dresses when he wants to go for a long walk in the sun

    Sun hat: check
    Comfortable shoes: check
    Walking stick: check
    Yeah right. The slovenly dress, the reported frequent cursing and 'shocking' statements, the obvious leaks to ensure stories stay on him and his words, it all fits the image of a childish rebel, someone who so doesn't care what others think that they feel the need to demonstrate how they don't care what others think all the time, which is to say they clearly do care what others think.

    It's a fine line, to be sure, and opinions will vary, but like art and pornography I think most can tell the difference even when hard to quantify it sometimes.
    I have been trying to think what is the inspiration for Cummings' strange garb and I have decided that it is Donatello's David. Perhaps he sees himself as a modern day David slaying the Giant of the liberal elite?

    Or perhaps his eyesight is still wonky and he doesn't realise what a plonker he looks.
    Were he merely often sloppily dressed I'd think nothing of it, many are including me, but combine it with his needy, attention seeking language and provocative approach to things and it says to me the dress is a part of it.
    It is. He went to public school, has wealthy parents, went to Oxford, married a rich journalist whose father lives in a castle. He knows how posh people dress and behave. He deliberately dresses as a slob, or in clothes like the picture, not to dress down, but rather because he can. It is a deliberate statement of his contrived, contrarian persona. He dresses in a way that no working class, or middle class person could. He thereby establishes his superiority, like a lion pissing on a tree.
    Triggered by someone's outfit, really?
    Nah, I have met any number of posh twats who dress like that in my life. It is like wearing a flashing neon sign that says "arsehole". Pre makeover Corbyn did much the same, and of course Bozo himself looks like a sack of potatoes.

    Interestingly, Starmer dresses very much in the style of someone of petit bourgeois stock made good, and feeling the imposter syndrome. He always dresses smartly, yet never looks entirely comfortable in his clothes.

    How people dress is a very powerful class signifier, and English folks instinctively get it, and what is meant by it.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    No it’s how someone who doesn’t care what he looks like dresses when he wants to go for a long walk in the sun

    Sun hat: check
    Comfortable shoes: check
    Walking stick: check
    Yeah right. The slovenly dress, the reported frequent cursing and 'shocking' statements, the obvious leaks to ensure stories stay on him and his words, it all fits the image of a childish rebel, someone who so doesn't care what others think that they feel the need to demonstrate how they don't care what others think all the time, which is to say they clearly do care what others think.

    It's a fine line, to be sure, and opinions will vary, but like art and pornography I think most can tell the difference even when hard to quantify it sometimes.
    I have been trying to think what is the inspiration for Cummings' strange garb and I have decided that it is Donatello's David. Perhaps he sees himself as a modern day David slaying the Giant of the liberal elite?

    Or perhaps his eyesight is still wonky and he doesn't realise what a plonker he looks.
    Were he merely often sloppily dressed I'd think nothing of it, many are including me, but combine it with his needy, attention seeking language and provocative approach to things and it says to me the dress is a part of it.
    It is. He went to public school, has wealthy parents, went to Oxford, married a rich journalist whose father lives in a castle. He knows how posh people dress and behave. He deliberately dresses as a slob, or in clothes like the picture, not to dress down, but rather because he can. It is a deliberate statement of his contrived, contrarian persona. He dresses in a way that no working class, or middle class person could. He thereby establishes his superiority, like a lion pissing on a tree.
    Triggered by someone's outfit, really?
    Nah, I have met any number of posh twats who dress like that in my life. It is like wearing a flashing neon sign that says "arsehole". Pre makeover Corbyn did much the same, and of course Bozo himself looks like a sack of potatoes.

    Interestingly, Starmer dresses very much in the style of someone of petit bourgeois stock made good, and feeling the imposter syndrome. He always dresses smartly, yet never looks entirely comfortable in his clothes.

    How people dress is a very powerful class signifier, and English folks instinctively get it, and what is meant by it.

    Must be a generational thing. I'm fortunate to have never had to bother to much about being suited and booted. ONS was amazing - shorts and t-shirts in the summer (a good thing too given the lack of aircon!).

    If Cummings turned up to interview someone dressed like that, I wouldn't be impressed as everyone wears a suit to an interview. Other than that, who cares how he dresses?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    tlg86 said:

    who cares how he dresses?

    He does. Desperately.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    No it’s how someone who doesn’t care what he looks like dresses when he wants to go for a long walk in the sun

    Sun hat: check
    Comfortable shoes: check
    Walking stick: check
    Yeah right. The slovenly dress, the reported frequent cursing and 'shocking' statements, the obvious leaks to ensure stories stay on him and his words, it all fits the image of a childish rebel, someone who so doesn't care what others think that they feel the need to demonstrate how they don't care what others think all the time, which is to say they clearly do care what others think.

    It's a fine line, to be sure, and opinions will vary, but like art and pornography I think most can tell the difference even when hard to quantify it sometimes.
    I have been trying to think what is the inspiration for Cummings' strange garb and I have decided that it is Donatello's David. Perhaps he sees himself as a modern day David slaying the Giant of the liberal elite?

    Or perhaps his eyesight is still wonky and he doesn't realise what a plonker he looks.
    Were he merely often sloppily dressed I'd think nothing of it, many are including me, but combine it with his needy, attention seeking language and provocative approach to things and it says to me the dress is a part of it.
    It is. He went to public school, has wealthy parents, went to Oxford, married a rich journalist whose father lives in a castle. He knows how posh people dress and behave. He deliberately dresses as a slob, or in clothes like the picture, not to dress down, but rather because he can. It is a deliberate statement of his contrived, contrarian persona. He dresses in a way that no working class, or middle class person could. He thereby establishes his superiority, like a lion pissing on a tree.
    Triggered by someone's outfit, really?
    Nah, I have met any number of posh twats who dress like that in my life. It is like wearing a flashing neon sign that says "arsehole". Pre makeover Corbyn did much the same, and of course Bozo himself looks like a sack of potatoes.

    Interestingly, Starmer dresses very much in the style of someone of petit bourgeois stock made good, and feeling the imposter syndrome. He always dresses smartly, yet never looks entirely comfortable in his clothes.

    How people dress is a very powerful class signifier, and English folks instinctively get it, and what is meant by it.

    Must be a generational thing. I'm fortunate to have never had to bother to much about being suited and booted. ONS was amazing - shorts and t-shirts in the summer (a good thing too given the lack of aircon!).

    If Cummings turned up to interview someone dressed like that, I wouldn't be impressed as everyone wears a suit to an interview. Other than that, who cares how he dresses?
    Why is he carrying a twig?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Why is he carrying a twig?

    It's an OODA loop disruptor
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    No it’s how someone who doesn’t care what he looks like dresses when he wants to go for a long walk in the sun

    Sun hat: check
    Comfortable shoes: check
    Walking stick: check
    Yeah right. The slovenly dress, the reported frequent cursing and 'shocking' statements, the obvious leaks to ensure stories stay on him and his words, it all fits the image of a childish rebel, someone who so doesn't care what others think that they feel the need to demonstrate how they don't care what others think all the time, which is to say they clearly do care what others think.

    It's a fine line, to be sure, and opinions will vary, but like art and pornography I think most can tell the difference even when hard to quantify it sometimes.
    I have been trying to think what is the inspiration for Cummings' strange garb and I have decided that it is Donatello's David. Perhaps he sees himself as a modern day David slaying the Giant of the liberal elite?

    Or perhaps his eyesight is still wonky and he doesn't realise what a plonker he looks.
    Were he merely often sloppily dressed I'd think nothing of it, many are including me, but combine it with his needy, attention seeking language and provocative approach to things and it says to me the dress is a part of it.
    It is. He went to public school, has wealthy parents, went to Oxford, married a rich journalist whose father lives in a castle. He knows how posh people dress and behave. He deliberately dresses as a slob, or in clothes like the picture, not to dress down, but rather because he can. It is a deliberate statement of his contrived, contrarian persona. He dresses in a way that no working class, or middle class person could. He thereby establishes his superiority, like a lion pissing on a tree.
    Triggered by someone's outfit, really?
    Nah, I have met any number of posh twats who dress like that in my life. It is like wearing a flashing neon sign that says "arsehole". Pre makeover Corbyn did much the same, and of course Bozo himself looks like a sack of potatoes.

    Interestingly, Starmer dresses very much in the style of someone of petit bourgeois stock made good, and feeling the imposter syndrome. He always dresses smartly, yet never looks entirely comfortable in his clothes.

    How people dress is a very powerful class signifier, and English folks instinctively get it, and what is meant by it.

    Must be a generational thing. I'm fortunate to have never had to bother to much about being suited and booted. ONS was amazing - shorts and t-shirts in the summer (a good thing too given the lack of aircon!).

    If Cummings turned up to interview someone dressed like that, I wouldn't be impressed as everyone wears a suit to an interview. Other than that, who cares how he dresses?
    It is a generational thing, but Cummings is of my generation. That doesn't mean that class signifiers disappear with generations, but they certainly do shift. You see it in teenagers as soon as they get power over how they can dress themselves. Clothes have a certain practical nessecity, but are very powerful status signifier. Indeed as you move down the SE scale, label consciousness becomes even more pronounced.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    LadyG said:

    Central London Economic Catastrophe Update


    So, today, I went for a ten mile walk all the way around the West End then up to King's X. Just to see how bad things are.

    Conclusion? Very bad in places, but there are grounds for optimism.

    First: Marylebone (mainly the High Street). This luxe area was never gonna look too run down and it doesn't. But at least one in ten restaurants/shops look like they've gone for good, and at least 30% are still closed so who knows. But it wasn't deserted, on this lovely sunny day, there were quite a few drinkers, shoppers, it was like a nice Sunday

    Down to Oxford Street, via St Christopher's Place: about the same. A quiet Sunday. Nearly all shops and cafes open. A general sense of relief and anticipation.

    Mayfair was dead quiet. Bond Street was desolate. Not enough foreign tourists? No Arabs, no Chinese.

    By contrast Soho, from Carnaby to Old Compton Street, was positively hopping. A carnival vibe. All the streets laid with tables, lots of drinkers, most pubs open, some doing a roaring trade. Real buzz.

    Covent Garden was less good. Around the Market there were some nice vibes - impromptu beer gardens - in the streets beyond, much is closed. They really need the Opera House, the museums and the theatres to reopen soon.

    Holborn and Bloomsbury were quiet, but not eerily so. Not like lockdown.

    Finally, and this was my biggest test: the new King's Cross development. I was expecting the worst here, as it relies entirely on students, tourists, people on the eurostar, and yet it was modestly rocking. The bars were full, you couuldn't get a table, at least half the restaurants have reopened, some are doing a bustling takeaway trade.

    Nearly all the customers seemed to be foreign. Where did they come from?

    I dunno.

    In conclusion, west central London and mid London have suffered, and are still struggling but it could be a lot worse. It is not dystopia.

    Next time I will have to go look at east Central London, the City, Shoreditch, Borough, etc.

    I am slightly cheered.

    You wouldn't want to be in the hospitality business right now or be invested in commercial real estate. But I am pretty confident that in a couple of years' time the centres of London and other major cities will be vibrant and bustling. The virus should be well-controlled by then, and people will be attracted to cities for all the reasons they always have been - the sheer weight of culture, commerce and interesting people that you find there. If property prices are a little lower and the mix of activities is a bit different, that will probably only improve cities further by making them more affordable for younger and more creative prople. London survived the Black Death and the Blitz, I think it can survive Covid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    SandraMc said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    No it’s how someone who doesn’t care what he looks like dresses when he wants to go for a long walk in the sun

    Sun hat: check
    Comfortable shoes: check
    Walking stick: check
    Yeah right. The slovenly dress, the reported frequent cursing and 'shocking' statements, the obvious leaks to ensure stories stay on him and his words, it all fits the image of a childish rebel, someone who so doesn't care what others think that they feel the need to demonstrate how they don't care what others think all the time, which is to say they clearly do care what others think.

    It's a fine line, to be sure, and opinions will vary, but like art and pornography I think most can tell the difference even when hard to quantify it sometimes.
    I have been trying to think what is the inspiration for Cummings' strange garb and I have decided that it is Donatello's David. Perhaps he sees himself as a modern day David slaying the Giant of the liberal elite?

    Or perhaps his eyesight is still wonky and he doesn't realise what a plonker he looks.
    Were he merely often sloppily dressed I'd think nothing of it, many are including me, but combine it with his needy, attention seeking language and provocative approach to things and it says to me the dress is a part of it.
    It is. He went to public school, has wealthy parents, went to Oxford, married a rich journalist whose father lives in a castle. He knows how posh people dress and behave. He deliberately dresses as a slob, or in clothes like the picture, not to dress down, but rather because he can. It is a deliberate statement of his contrived, contrarian persona. He dresses in a way that no working class, or middle class person could. He thereby establishes his superiority, like a lion pissing on a tree.
    Triggered by someone's outfit, really?
    Nah, I have met any number of posh twats who dress like that in my life. It is like wearing a flashing neon sign that says "arsehole". Pre makeover Corbyn did much the same, and of course Bozo himself looks like a sack of potatoes.

    Interestingly, Starmer dresses very much in the style of someone of petit bourgeois stock made good, and feeling the imposter syndrome. He always dresses smartly, yet never looks entirely comfortable in his clothes.

    How people dress is a very powerful class signifier, and English folks instinctively get it, and what is meant by it.

    Must be a generational thing. I'm fortunate to have never had to bother to much about being suited and booted. ONS was amazing - shorts and t-shirts in the summer (a good thing too given the lack of aircon!).

    If Cummings turned up to interview someone dressed like that, I wouldn't be impressed as everyone wears a suit to an interview. Other than that, who cares how he dresses?
    Why is he carrying a twig?
    Perhaps it is a cleft stick.
  • LadyG said:

    Central London Economic Catastrophe Update


    So, today, I went for a ten mile walk all the way around the West End then up to King's X. Just to see how bad things are.

    Conclusion? Very bad in places, but there are grounds for optimism.

    First: Marylebone (mainly the High Street). This luxe area was never gonna look too run down and it doesn't. But at least one in ten restaurants/shops look like they've gone for good, and at least 30% are still closed so who knows. But it wasn't deserted, on this lovely sunny day, there were quite a few drinkers, shoppers, it was like a nice Sunday

    Down to Oxford Street, via St Christopher's Place: about the same. A quiet Sunday. Nearly all shops and cafes open. A general sense of relief and anticipation.

    Mayfair was dead quiet. Bond Street was desolate. Not enough foreign tourists? No Arabs, no Chinese.

    By contrast Soho, from Carnaby to Old Compton Street, was positively hopping. A carnival vibe. All the streets laid with tables, lots of drinkers, most pubs open, some doing a roaring trade. Real buzz.

    Covent Garden was less good. Around the Market there were some nice vibes - impromptu beer gardens - in the streets beyond, much is closed. They really need the Opera House, the museums and the theatres to reopen soon.

    Holborn and Bloomsbury were quiet, but not eerily so. Not like lockdown.

    Finally, and this was my biggest test: the new King's Cross development. I was expecting the worst here, as it relies entirely on students, tourists, people on the eurostar, and yet it was modestly rocking. The bars were full, you couuldn't get a table, at least half the restaurants have reopened, some are doing a bustling takeaway trade.

    Nearly all the customers seemed to be foreign. Where did they come from?

    I dunno.

    In conclusion, west central London and mid London have suffered, and are still struggling but it could be a lot worse. It is not dystopia.

    Next time I will have to go look at east Central London, the City, Shoreditch, Borough, etc.

    I am slightly cheered.

    You wouldn't want to be in the hospitality business right now or be invested in commercial real estate. But I am pretty confident that in a couple of years' time the centres of London and other major cities will be vibrant and bustling. The virus should be well-controlled by then, and people will be attracted to cities for all the reasons they always have been - the sheer weight of culture, commerce and interesting people that you find there. If property prices are a little lower and the mix of activities is a bit different, that will probably only improve cities further by making them more affordable for younger and more creative prople. London survived the Black Death and the Blitz, I think it can survive Covid.
    Frankly a huge drop in house prices would be fantastic for those who are actually going to need to buy them over the next few decades, when the old farts have passed away
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited July 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
    The ones giving the Tories a double-digit lead with YouGov, and 8 with Opinium? Uh-huh.

    The electorate's going to the pub, not moaning about irrelevances from months ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
    The ones giving the Tories a double-digit lead with YouGov, and 8 with Opinium? Uh-huh.

    The electorate's going to the pub, not moaning about irrelevances from months ago.
    How would you know, given you never talk to anyone but yourself?

    People are still talking about Cummings. Unprompted. They are still furious.

    It’s made worse by the insanity of his explanation and the fact he seems to genuinely believe we’re all as thick as he is and will swallow it. If he’d fessed up and quit, everyone would have felt sympathy for him.

    (Well, apart from me, obviously, because I know what a low-life twat he is. But everyone who doesn’t know anything about him would have felt sorry for him.)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    LadyG said:

    Central London Economic Catastrophe Update


    So, today, I went for a ten mile walk all the way around the West End then up to King's X. Just to see how bad things are.

    Conclusion? Very bad in places, but there are grounds for optimism.

    First: Marylebone (mainly the High Street). This luxe area was never gonna look too run down and it doesn't. But at least one in ten restaurants/shops look like they've gone for good, and at least 30% are still closed so who knows. But it wasn't deserted, on this lovely sunny day, there were quite a few drinkers, shoppers, it was like a nice Sunday

    Down to Oxford Street, via St Christopher's Place: about the same. A quiet Sunday. Nearly all shops and cafes open. A general sense of relief and anticipation.

    Mayfair was dead quiet. Bond Street was desolate. Not enough foreign tourists? No Arabs, no Chinese.

    By contrast Soho, from Carnaby to Old Compton Street, was positively hopping. A carnival vibe. All the streets laid with tables, lots of drinkers, most pubs open, some doing a roaring trade. Real buzz.

    Covent Garden was less good. Around the Market there were some nice vibes - impromptu beer gardens - in the streets beyond, much is closed. They really need the Opera House, the museums and the theatres to reopen soon.

    Holborn and Bloomsbury were quiet, but not eerily so. Not like lockdown.

    Finally, and this was my biggest test: the new King's Cross development. I was expecting the worst here, as it relies entirely on students, tourists, people on the eurostar, and yet it was modestly rocking. The bars were full, you couuldn't get a table, at least half the restaurants have reopened, some are doing a bustling takeaway trade.

    Nearly all the customers seemed to be foreign. Where did they come from?

    I dunno.

    In conclusion, west central London and mid London have suffered, and are still struggling but it could be a lot worse. It is not dystopia.

    Next time I will have to go look at east Central London, the City, Shoreditch, Borough, etc.

    I am slightly cheered.

    You wouldn't want to be in the hospitality business right now or be invested in commercial real estate. But I am pretty confident that in a couple of years' time the centres of London and other major cities will be vibrant and bustling. The virus should be well-controlled by then, and people will be attracted to cities for all the reasons they always have been - the sheer weight of culture, commerce and interesting people that you find there. If property prices are a little lower and the mix of activities is a bit different, that will probably only improve cities further by making them more affordable for younger and more creative prople. London survived the Black Death and the Blitz, I think it can survive Covid.
    Frankly a huge drop in house prices would be fantastic for those who are actually going to need to buy them over the next few decades, when the old farts have passed away
    Residential property prices won't collapse because the fundamental problem of lack of supply hasn't gone away. All that might happen in the short term is prices coming down from the ludicrous to the merely extortionate in the more chichi parts of Central London, whilst simultaneously edging upwards in the leafier West London suburbs and much of the South East.

    The effects of the WFH revolution on working practices and, consequently, on commercial premises will be considerable, but it'll do little or nothing to make homes more affordable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    "The last time a candidate sustained such a large [polling] advantage for so long was nearly 25 years ago, when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole in 1996"

    NYTimes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    "other ways" being suppressing the vote in Dem areas?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Starmer going hard against China is a good contrast to Corbyn

    Starmer agreeing with the coordinated Trump/Johnson attack on China.

    Great
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    Starmer going hard against China is a good contrast to Corbyn

    Starmer agreeing with the coordinated Trump/Johnson attack on China.

    Great
    Correct thing to do.

    You cannot be suggesting you support the Chinese regime
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
    Funny, I thought the electorate were still giving the Tories a poll lead. I didn't realise we'd had crossover.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Starmer going hard against China is a good contrast to Corbyn

    Starmer agreeing with the coordinated Trump/Johnson attack on China.

    Great
    Just because Left foreign policy under the previous leadership consisted of backing Russia, Venezuela, Iran and any other government broadly defined as "anti-Western," it doesn't necessarily follow that Starmer ought to follow the same course.

    It's hardly as if criticism of China is unfounded.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I don't recall anyone saying Cummings was bigger than Brexit, Iraq or 9/11. I remember people saying it was this Government's Black Wednesday - and that is still to be seen

    @Stark_Dawning and @rpjs were saying it in the thread I linked to before.

    Apparently not to many people were affected directly by 9/11, Brexit or Iraq which is why Cummings was the bigger story. I kid you not.
    Covid-19 has affected the lives of vastly more British people than 9/11, the invasion of Iraq or Brexit - ridiculous to assert otherwise.
    Of course it has, but that makes COVID19 a big story - not Dominic Cummings.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    I don't recall anyone saying Cummings was bigger than Brexit, Iraq or 9/11. I remember people saying it was this Government's Black Wednesday - and that is still to be seen

    People on here said it was the biggest story of the 21st century
    Which people ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    I don't recall anyone saying Cummings was bigger than Brexit, Iraq or 9/11. I remember people saying it was this Government's Black Wednesday - and that is still to be seen

    People on here said it was the biggest story of the 21st century
    Which people ?
    @Stark_Dawning and others.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited July 2020
    Some (encouraging) data on the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine.

    Concurrent human antibody and TH1 type T-cell responses elicited by a COVID-19 RNA vaccine
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20140533v1
    ... Recently, we reported safety, tolerability and antibody response data from an ongoing placebo-controlled, observer-blinded phase 1/2 COVID-19 vaccine trial with BNT162b1, a lipid nanoparticle (LNP) formulated nucleoside-modified messenger RNA encoding the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Here we present antibody and T cell responses after BNT162b1 vaccination from a second, non-randomized open-label phase 1/2 trial in healthy adults, 18-55 years of age. Two doses of 1 to 50 μg of BNT162b1 elicited robust CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses and strong antibody responses, with RBD-binding IgG concentrations clearly above those in a COVID-19 convalescent human serum panel (HCS). Day 43 SARS-CoV-2 serum neutralising geometric mean titers were 0.7-fold (1 μg) to 3.5-fold (50 μg) those of HCS. Immune sera broadly neutralised pseudoviruses with diverse SARS-CoV-2 spike variants. Most participants had TH1 skewed T cell immune responses with RBD-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cell expansion. Interferon (IFN)γ was produced by a high fraction of RBD-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells. The robust RBD-specific antibody, T-cell and favourable cytokine responses induced by the BNT162b1 mRNA vaccine suggest multiple beneficial mechanisms with potential to protect against COVID-19.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2876949#Comment_2876949

    This was the original comment. Because of a Daily Star headline the Cummings story became 'the biggest political story of the century'. The comment was repeatedly doubled down on throughout.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited July 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Some (encouraging) data on the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine.

    Concurrent human antibody and TH1 type T-cell responses elicited by a COVID-19 RNA vaccine
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20140533v1
    ... Recently, we reported safety, tolerability and antibody response data from an ongoing placebo-controlled, observer-blinded phase 1/2 COVID-19 vaccine trial with BNT162b1, a lipid nanoparticle (LNP) formulated nucleoside-modified messenger RNA encoding the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Here we present antibody and T cell responses after BNT162b1 vaccination from a second, non-randomized open-label phase 1/2 trial in healthy adults, 18-55 years of age. Two doses of 1 to 50 μg of BNT162b1 elicited robust CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses and strong antibody responses, with RBD-binding IgG concentrations clearly above those in a COVID-19 convalescent human serum panel (HCS). Day 43 SARS-CoV-2 serum neutralising geometric mean titers were 0.7-fold (1 μg) to 3.5-fold (50 μg) those of HCS. Immune sera broadly neutralised pseudoviruses with diverse SARS-CoV-2 spike variants. Most participants had TH1 skewed T cell immune responses with RBD-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cell expansion. Interferon (IFN)γ was produced by a high fraction of RBD-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells. The robust RBD-specific antibody, T-cell and favourable cytokine responses induced by the BNT162b1 mRNA vaccine suggest multiple beneficial mechanisms with potential to protect against COVID-19.

    I really enjoy your posts, not that I have a clue about the technical detail, but respect the way you present them and being positive
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited July 2020
    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
    The ones giving the Tories a double-digit lead with YouGov, and 8 with Opinium? Uh-huh.

    The electorate's going to the pub, not moaning about irrelevances from months ago.
    How would you know, given you never talk to anyone but yourself?

    People are still talking about Cummings. Unprompted. They are still furious.

    It’s made worse by the insanity of his explanation and the fact he seems to genuinely believe we’re all as thick as he is and will swallow it. If he’d fessed up and quit, everyone would have felt sympathy for him.

    (Well, apart from me, obviously, because I know what a low-life twat he is. But everyone who doesn’t know anything about him would have felt sorry for him.)
    But in the logic system of the Downing Street bunker, nothing but the immediate poll lead matters. Because none of them ever think further ahead than the end of their nose.

    To everyone else, it's obvious that leaving an open sore in your government is a stupid idea that will cause long-term harm, but this lot don't do that sort of thinking. To take action would be to admit weakness now, as opposed to storing up trouble for later. In the same way that appointing a cabinet of compromised numpties strengthens your short-term position, but isn't a wise long-term move.

    Realise that's what they're doing (and I guess it's consistent with how posh Johnson and Cummings are) and it makes a lot more sense. It doesn't improve the outlook for the nation, unfortunately.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.

    If that proves to be true why didn't Boris release it months ago?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Nigelb said:

    Some (encouraging) data on the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine.

    Concurrent human antibody and TH1 type T-cell responses elicited by a COVID-19 RNA vaccine
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.17.20140533v1
    ... Recently, we reported safety, tolerability and antibody response data from an ongoing placebo-controlled, observer-blinded phase 1/2 COVID-19 vaccine trial with BNT162b1, a lipid nanoparticle (LNP) formulated nucleoside-modified messenger RNA encoding the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Here we present antibody and T cell responses after BNT162b1 vaccination from a second, non-randomized open-label phase 1/2 trial in healthy adults, 18-55 years of age. Two doses of 1 to 50 μg of BNT162b1 elicited robust CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses and strong antibody responses, with RBD-binding IgG concentrations clearly above those in a COVID-19 convalescent human serum panel (HCS). Day 43 SARS-CoV-2 serum neutralising geometric mean titers were 0.7-fold (1 μg) to 3.5-fold (50 μg) those of HCS. Immune sera broadly neutralised pseudoviruses with diverse SARS-CoV-2 spike variants. Most participants had TH1 skewed T cell immune responses with RBD-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cell expansion. Interferon (IFN)γ was produced by a high fraction of RBD-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells. The robust RBD-specific antibody, T-cell and favourable cytokine responses induced by the BNT162b1 mRNA vaccine suggest multiple beneficial mechanisms with potential to protect against COVID-19.

    I found this vaccine tracker from the Grauniad useful (though I cannot say how accurate it is):

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jul/20/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-close-are-we-to-a-vaccine
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.

    If that proves to be true why didn't Boris release it months ago?
    Something to do with Grieve getting the credit maybe
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Onthread

    I had forgotten about Cummings(at least he was not in my thoughts at all). I wonder if people actually care or remember. It would be interesting to see how many people actually remember him, unprompted. We need a poll. I think in 6 months it will fish and chip wrappings.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    LadyG said:

    Central London Economic Catastrophe Update


    So, today, I went for a ten mile walk all the way around the West End then up to King's X. Just to see how bad things are.

    Conclusion? Very bad in places, but there are grounds for optimism.

    First: Marylebone (mainly the High Street). This luxe area was never gonna look too run down and it doesn't. But at least one in ten restaurants/shops look like they've gone for good, and at least 30% are still closed so who knows. But it wasn't deserted, on this lovely sunny day, there were quite a few drinkers, shoppers, it was like a nice Sunday

    Down to Oxford Street, via St Christopher's Place: about the same. A quiet Sunday. Nearly all shops and cafes open. A general sense of relief and anticipation.

    Mayfair was dead quiet. Bond Street was desolate. Not enough foreign tourists? No Arabs, no Chinese.

    By contrast Soho, from Carnaby to Old Compton Street, was positively hopping. A carnival vibe. All the streets laid with tables, lots of drinkers, most pubs open, some doing a roaring trade. Real buzz.

    Covent Garden was less good. Around the Market there were some nice vibes - impromptu beer gardens - in the streets beyond, much is closed. They really need the Opera House, the museums and the theatres to reopen soon.

    Holborn and Bloomsbury were quiet, but not eerily so. Not like lockdown.

    Finally, and this was my biggest test: the new King's Cross development. I was expecting the worst here, as it relies entirely on students, tourists, people on the eurostar, and yet it was modestly rocking. The bars were full, you couuldn't get a table, at least half the restaurants have reopened, some are doing a bustling takeaway trade.

    Nearly all the customers seemed to be foreign. Where did they come from?

    I dunno.

    In conclusion, west central London and mid London have suffered, and are still struggling but it could be a lot worse. It is not dystopia.

    Next time I will have to go look at east Central London, the City, Shoreditch, Borough, etc.

    I am slightly cheered.

    You wouldn't want to be in the hospitality business right now or be invested in commercial real estate. But I am pretty confident that in a couple of years' time the centres of London and other major cities will be vibrant and bustling. The virus should be well-controlled by then, and people will be attracted to cities for all the reasons they always have been - the sheer weight of culture, commerce and interesting people that you find there. If property prices are a little lower and the mix of activities is a bit different, that will probably only improve cities further by making them more affordable for younger and more creative prople. London survived the Black Death and the Blitz, I think it can survive Covid.
    Frankly a huge drop in house prices would be fantastic for those who are actually going to need to buy them over the next few decades, when the old farts have passed away
    Residential property prices won't collapse because the fundamental problem of lack of supply hasn't gone away. All that might happen in the short term is prices coming down from the ludicrous to the merely extortionate in the more chichi parts of Central London, whilst simultaneously edging upwards in the leafier West London suburbs and much of the South East.

    The effects of the WFH revolution on working practices and, consequently, on commercial premises will be considerable, but it'll do little or nothing to make homes more affordable.
    I can't believe the way the sheer dystopian awfulness of the WFH revolution goes unrecognised here. WFH is like lockdown; it's lovely if you live in a nice large house with more bedrooms than permanent residents, in a nice area, with a spouse you get on with and children in at least mid to late teens or departed altogether, and a considerable degree of autonomy over how you do your interesting and well-paid job. Most people aren't in that position (but many PBers are). For the majority it will feel more like living 24/7 in the office than working at home, without the social interaction that office life brings (and for which WFH offers no substitute), and with The Man having absolutely huge authority to dictate exactly what you do and how and when you do it in your own dwelling. An Englishman's home will no longer be his castle. The mental health implications are going to be simply terrible.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
    The ones giving the Tories a double-digit lead with YouGov, and 8 with Opinium? Uh-huh.

    The electorate's going to the pub, not moaning about irrelevances from months ago.
    How would you know, given you never talk to anyone but yourself?

    People are still talking about Cummings. Unprompted. They are still furious.

    It’s made worse by the insanity of his explanation and the fact he seems to genuinely believe we’re all as thick as he is and will swallow it. If he’d fessed up and quit, everyone would have felt sympathy for him.

    (Well, apart from me, obviously, because I know what a low-life twat he is. But everyone who doesn’t know anything about him would have felt sorry for him.)
    But in the logic system of the Downing Street bunker, nothing but the immediate poll lead matters. Because none of them ever think further ahead than the end of their nose.

    To everyone else, it's obvious that leaving an open sore in your government is a stupid idea that will cause long-term harm, but this lot don't do that sort of thinking. To take action would be to admit weakness now, as opposed to storing up trouble for later. In the same way that appointing a cabinet of compromised numpties strengthens your short-term position, but isn't a wise long-term move.

    Realise that's what they're doing (and I guess it's consistent with how posh Johnson and Cummings are) and it makes a lot more sense. It doesn't improve the outlook for the nation, unfortunately.
    Not sure I follow this. Ydoethur says people are furious with Cummings, you say Boris is leaving an open sore in government and yet you are also saying nothing but the immediate poll leads matters. Not sure I detect a coherent argument here.

    I do detect a substantial poll lead, and what appears to be an ineffective opposition though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.

    If that proves to be true why didn't Boris release it months ago?
    My understanding is that Johnson couldn't release it, only the Committee itself could. I recall reading a suggestion some way down thread that the delay in forming a new Committee might be something to do with the report having been the work of Dominic Grieve and Johnson therefore wanting to suppress it out of spite. However, it seems more likely to me that it was simply delayed because No.10 was trying (ultimately unsuccessfully) to win control of the Committee, i.e. the fate of the report was incidental.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    IshmaelZ said:

    LadyG said:

    Central London Economic Catastrophe Update


    So, today, I went for a ten mile walk all the way around the West End then up to King's X. Just to see how bad things are.

    Conclusion? Very bad in places, but there are grounds for optimism.

    First: Marylebone (mainly the High Street). This luxe area was never gonna look too run down and it doesn't. But at least one in ten restaurants/shops look like they've gone for good, and at least 30% are still closed so who knows. But it wasn't deserted, on this lovely sunny day, there were quite a few drinkers, shoppers, it was like a nice Sunday

    Down to Oxford Street, via St Christopher's Place: about the same. A quiet Sunday. Nearly all shops and cafes open. A general sense of relief and anticipation.

    Mayfair was dead quiet. Bond Street was desolate. Not enough foreign tourists? No Arabs, no Chinese.

    By contrast Soho, from Carnaby to Old Compton Street, was positively hopping. A carnival vibe. All the streets laid with tables, lots of drinkers, most pubs open, some doing a roaring trade. Real buzz.

    Covent Garden was less good. Around the Market there were some nice vibes - impromptu beer gardens - in the streets beyond, much is closed. They really need the Opera House, the museums and the theatres to reopen soon.

    Holborn and Bloomsbury were quiet, but not eerily so. Not like lockdown.

    Finally, and this was my biggest test: the new King's Cross development. I was expecting the worst here, as it relies entirely on students, tourists, people on the eurostar, and yet it was modestly rocking. The bars were full, you couuldn't get a table, at least half the restaurants have reopened, some are doing a bustling takeaway trade.

    Nearly all the customers seemed to be foreign. Where did they come from?

    I dunno.

    In conclusion, west central London and mid London have suffered, and are still struggling but it could be a lot worse. It is not dystopia.

    Next time I will have to go look at east Central London, the City, Shoreditch, Borough, etc.

    I am slightly cheered.

    You wouldn't want to be in the hospitality business right now or be invested in commercial real estate. But I am pretty confident that in a couple of years' time the centres of London and other major cities will be vibrant and bustling. The virus should be well-controlled by then, and people will be attracted to cities for all the reasons they always have been - the sheer weight of culture, commerce and interesting people that you find there. If property prices are a little lower and the mix of activities is a bit different, that will probably only improve cities further by making them more affordable for younger and more creative prople. London survived the Black Death and the Blitz, I think it can survive Covid.
    Frankly a huge drop in house prices would be fantastic for those who are actually going to need to buy them over the next few decades, when the old farts have passed away
    Residential property prices won't collapse because the fundamental problem of lack of supply hasn't gone away. All that might happen in the short term is prices coming down from the ludicrous to the merely extortionate in the more chichi parts of Central London, whilst simultaneously edging upwards in the leafier West London suburbs and much of the South East.

    The effects of the WFH revolution on working practices and, consequently, on commercial premises will be considerable, but it'll do little or nothing to make homes more affordable.
    I can't believe the way the sheer dystopian awfulness of the WFH revolution goes unrecognised here. WFH is like lockdown; it's lovely if you live in a nice large house with more bedrooms than permanent residents, in a nice area, with a spouse you get on with and children in at least mid to late teens or departed altogether, and a considerable degree of autonomy over how you do your interesting and well-paid job. Most people aren't in that position (but many PBers are). For the majority it will feel more like living 24/7 in the office than working at home, without the social interaction that office life brings (and for which WFH offers no substitute), and with The Man having absolutely huge authority to dictate exactly what you do and how and when you do it in your own dwelling. An Englishman's home will no longer be his castle. The mental health implications are going to be simply terrible.
    Absolutely. The blurring of the line between work and domestic life, and the control workers home lives is not entirely a good thing.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited July 2020
    After a lot of drama and showboating by some leaders the EU is getting close to a deal on the the new budget and recovery fund .

    This would be a remarkable achievement given this crosses the rubicon in terms of joint borrowing . The likely deal on the recovery fund will be a combination of 390 billion euros in grants and 360 billion euros in low cost loans .

    The budget for the MFF is set at just over 1 trillion Euros .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Some experimental confirmation of what’s been reasonably obvious for a while.

    https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1285313529638195203
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
    I have no idea but going back is not an option

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1283725468768899072?s=20
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.

    I admire your indefatigable optimism
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
    I have no idea but going back is not an option

    It certainly is an option.

    I expect we will be back in within a decade or so, if they will have us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1283725468768899072?s=20
    only 39% wanting to stay out, is a good building block for rejoin.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.

    If that proves to be true why didn't Boris release it months ago?
    Leaving a dead cat on the table to distract his opponents?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    The TV schedules may be full of repeats, theatres and cinemas closed, and no live gigs but hey, cheer up, there's a new series of America's greatest comedy show starting next week...

    https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1285235158954717184?s=20
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    new thread
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Onthread

    I had forgotten about Cummings(at least he was not in my thoughts at all). I wonder if people actually care or remember. It would be interesting to see how many people actually remember him, unprompted. We need a poll. I think in 6 months it will fish and chip wrappings.

    No! It’s as important as Cameron on a horse
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1283725468768899072?s=20
    only 39% wanting to stay out, is a good building block for rejoin.
    I admire your indefatigable optimism, as someone once said.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    The TV schedules may be full of repeats, theatres and cinemas closed, and no live gigs but hey, cheer up, there's a new series of America's greatest comedy show starting next week...

    https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1285235158954717184?s=20

    The thing is, I wish it was comedy but it is not

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    The Torygraph is suggesting that tomorrow's much-delayed Intelligence Committee report will state that the Russians tried to meddle in the Scottish referendum but not in the Brexit one (though the details are behind the paywall.)

    If true then I am sure that this revelation will lead to a period of calm and measured reflection upon our recent history.

    If that proves to be true why didn't Boris release it months ago?
    My understanding is that Johnson couldn't release it, only the Committee itself could. I recall reading a suggestion some way down thread that the delay in forming a new Committee might be something to do with the report having been the work of Dominic Grieve and Johnson therefore wanting to suppress it out of spite. However, it seems more likely to me that it was simply delayed because No.10 was trying (ultimately unsuccessfully) to win control of the Committee, i.e. the fate of the report was incidental.
    The other question this throws up (if true) is why would Russia want to interfere in Sindy but not in Brexit?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    He's got a STICK
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Likely to be better than the deal we had with EFTA via the EEA? Or are we just running to stand still?
    The EU are all over the place at present over covid and their budgets and no sign of a brexit deal on the table
    Thats as mebbe. Not an answer to my question though. Is Raabs negotiation for the status quo? Or something less, or something better?

    What could be better than the free access that we have to the EFTA countries at present?
    We voted to leave so we have to create new trading relationships

    The EU is over in the UK for better or worse and many think it will be better, others worse and only time will tell

    It is true covid has complicated it especially for the EU
    Still not answering the question. Is the new deal a continuation of the status quo, or is it inferior?

    In other words is a reduced trading arrangement being pitched as a success?

    I did see this interesting polling recently:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1276518082190721026?s=19
    I have no idea but going back is not an option

    ...yet!
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Charles said:

    Onthread

    I had forgotten about Cummings(at least he was not in my thoughts at all). I wonder if people actually care or remember. It would be interesting to see how many people actually remember him, unprompted. We need a poll. I think in 6 months it will fish and chip wrappings.

    No! It’s as important as Cameron on a horse
    remember calm down dear?
    remember pasty taxes?
    remember spacehoppers?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240
    humbugger said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Still boring on about Cummings, then? :lol:

    Yes, the electorate still are.
    The ones giving the Tories a double-digit lead with YouGov, and 8 with Opinium? Uh-huh.

    The electorate's going to the pub, not moaning about irrelevances from months ago.
    How would you know, given you never talk to anyone but yourself?

    People are still talking about Cummings. Unprompted. They are still furious.

    It’s made worse by the insanity of his explanation and the fact he seems to genuinely believe we’re all as thick as he is and will swallow it. If he’d fessed up and quit, everyone would have felt sympathy for him.

    (Well, apart from me, obviously, because I know what a low-life twat he is. But everyone who doesn’t know anything about him would have felt sorry for him.)
    But in the logic system of the Downing Street bunker, nothing but the immediate poll lead matters. Because none of them ever think further ahead than the end of their nose.

    To everyone else, it's obvious that leaving an open sore in your government is a stupid idea that will cause long-term harm, but this lot don't do that sort of thinking. To take action would be to admit weakness now, as opposed to storing up trouble for later. In the same way that appointing a cabinet of compromised numpties strengthens your short-term position, but isn't a wise long-term move.

    Realise that's what they're doing (and I guess it's consistent with how posh Johnson and Cummings are) and it makes a lot more sense. It doesn't improve the outlook for the nation, unfortunately.
    Not sure I follow this. Ydoethur says people are furious with Cummings, you say Boris is leaving an open sore in government and yet you are also saying nothing but the immediate poll leads matters. Not sure I detect a coherent argument here.

    I do detect a substantial poll lead, and what appears to be an ineffective opposition though.
    OK, let's put it this way.

    Whenever issues like Cummings in Durham, Jenrick and the planning permission thing, Patel and the bullying report happen, the response of government supporters is to point at the polls as evidence that the public don't care.

    (Now that's questionable in the case of Cummings; the government had built up a huge lead as the nation rallied round at the start of the Covid crisis, and there was a pretty much complete deflation of the Covid bounce around the time the story happened).

    Furthermore, it's been suggested that this is a considered strategy by this government. They will show strength by refusing to bow to calls for ministers to resign if they behave in ways that look scandalous, but don't actually break any enforceable rules. That puts them at odds with pretty much every other democratic government; the ground rule is generally that if you get caught in a big enough scandal, you go, even if it's a bit unfair.

    Now, it's possible that every other government around the world has had craven chumps in charge, and that loads of politicians have resigned unnecessarily. Alternatively, they're right and Johnson et al are wrong. Yes, you can keep compromised individuals on board for a while, with little short-term political harm. But the long-term effect is toxic, and that toxicity is liable to flip into place suddenly and unpredictably.

    So to sum up- this government and it's supporters are navigating by their current poll leads. I don't think that's wise on their part.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    The TV schedules may be full of repeats, theatres and cinemas closed, and no live gigs but hey, cheer up, there's a new series of America's greatest comedy show starting next week...

    https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1285235158954717184?s=20

    The thing is, I wish it was comedy but it is not

    He's concerned his poll rating is too high at this stage of the race.
This discussion has been closed.