Still bumbling along and keeping fingers crossed re: work. We know there's a wave of sackings coming, but not the identities of the victims. Apart from that I'm OK I suppose, The running is coming along reasonably well, and we are *finally* getting out of town on Saturday for the first time since March. You?
Crossing my fingers you'll maintain your job.
Glad to hear you're still running, are you training for anything in particular? I have never felt fitter in my life, I'm running 30 miles a week now. Also adding some bodyweight stuff, simple things like press-ups and pull-ups, just to keep the health up.
Hope you have a lovely time out of town, it is good to get out and it has definitely helped me, mental health wise.
Yup mostly all good, just trying to find a new place to rent in London but lots of places becoming available now.
Yes, so am I. I work in rather a niche occupation and am afraid that I would struggle to get something else in normal times. Right now one might as well look to volunteer for a charity or something and eek out the redundancy money for as long as possible.
30 miles is some going - this week I did 30km, last week 40km, but I'm no longer particularly young so I'm afraid if I go for it too hard I'll do myself a mischief (I was last injured about a month ago.) I would like to have a crack at a half-marathon, in whichever year races resume again, I've managed it once in training and am sure I can work up to it again. I've got a book about bodyweight exercises but can't summon the enthusiasm to do them; I'll probably give the gym a go when it opens back up again, but I suspect that I'll find it awful and jack in my membership.
Going up to Cambridge is going to feel liberating, and based on what I've learned about the Covid situation on here and elsewhere I think it should be pretty safe. Bedfordshire and Peterborough have both been whacked pretty hard by the virus but North Herts and South Cambs got off more lightly and are well past the worst of it. I shall be helping the economy with purchases of household stuff and I may go to the running shop and get a pair of shoes for going up tracks, as mine are really only meant for the road.
Good luck with your househunting; do you think Covid is having a useful (i.e. downwards) effect on prices there? The press is replete with stories of Londoners looking to flee at the moment.
Looks to have somewhat of an impact on the rental market already. Prices have dropped a couple hundred pounds a month it looks like and there are no deposit offers, etc.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
Last 30 days -
There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.
Not what you expect, is it?
Its not.
Care home deaths were at their peak very early on.
I joined a gym for the first time having turned 41. And for a year I really enjoyed it, got me doing regular exercise for the first time in a long time, and I discovered the mental health benefits. Had 10 months off when a change of job made me think I didn't have time. Mental health suffered and I missed it, so rejoined in December last year.
They (Total Fitness) have been shut since mid March, in that time my membership tie-in has ticked along without me having to pay. I've run outside a lot, I've got heavily into cycling. And at this time of year it's glorious, but once the weather turns and the daylight hours shorten is when the gym comes into it's own.
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
Still bumbling along and keeping fingers crossed re: work. We know there's a wave of sackings coming, but not the identities of the victims. Apart from that I'm OK I suppose, The running is coming along reasonably well, and we are *finally* getting out of town on Saturday for the first time since March. You?
Crossing my fingers you'll maintain your job.
Glad to hear you're still running, are you training for anything in particular? I have never felt fitter in my life, I'm running 30 miles a week now. Also adding some bodyweight stuff, simple things like press-ups and pull-ups, just to keep the health up.
Hope you have a lovely time out of town, it is good to get out and it has definitely helped me, mental health wise.
Yup mostly all good, just trying to find a new place to rent in London but lots of places becoming available now.
Yes, so am I. I work in rather a niche occupation and am afraid that I would struggle to get something else in normal times. Right now one might as well look to volunteer for a charity or something and eek out the redundancy money for as long as possible.
30 miles is some going - this week I did 30km, last week 40km, but I'm no longer particularly young so I'm afraid if I go for it too hard I'll do myself a mischief (I was last injured about a month ago.) I would like to have a crack at a half-marathon, in whichever year races resume again, I've managed it once in training and am sure I can work up to it again. I've got a book about bodyweight exercises but can't summon the enthusiasm to do them; I'll probably give the gym a go when it opens back up again, but I suspect that I'll find it awful and jack in my membership.
Going up to Cambridge is going to feel liberating, and based on what I've learned about the Covid situation on here and elsewhere I think it should be pretty safe. Bedfordshire and Peterborough have both been whacked pretty hard by the virus but North Herts and South Cambs got off more lightly and are well past the worst of it. I shall be helping the economy with purchases of household stuff and I may go to the running shop and get a pair of shoes for going up tracks, as mine are really only meant for the road.
Good luck with your househunting; do you think Covid is having a useful (i.e. downwards) effect on prices there? The press is replete with stories of Londoners looking to flee at the moment.
Looks to have somewhat of an impact on the rental market already. Prices have dropped a couple hundred pounds a month it looks like and there are no deposit offers, etc.
Makes sense. I suppose that the cumulative effect of people running away and others no longer able to afford the prices is applying some pressure to the landlords.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
By underreporting Covid cases and deaths?
I thought the "dickheads" were going to cause second, third and fourth waves, Sandy?
They've extended the tail on the first wave. Let's see what happens since the pubs opened.
On topic I think you may have kept up with my political journey of the last year. Quit Labour a year ago last week. Had a few months off, joined the LibDems end of September, had an interesting time doing general election stuff and had settled into normality when the Rona sent me mad and I tried to rejoin Labour for the resumption of "normal".
They rightly said no, my LibDem friends forgave the lapse and welcomed me back, and this afternoon I nominated Ed Davey for the leadership. I can cope with Layla if she win a, but it would be a terrible mistake.
The LibDems cannot try to tack one side or the other of Labour. We need to be a distinct alternative, and we have to take the good ideas wherever they come from (as Labour and the Tories have shamelessly done in the past) and not apologise for doing so. Ed Davey can do that and I hope can start the hard work of rebuilding the party one street at a time.
Whenever I have moved on from a work role I have always pointed to my successor where he has heap blame in my direction if needed. Davey should do the same. The bad bits of the coalition? Blame the Tories and the idiot savant Clegg. The good bits, that was us. Me.
Given Davey is right of Starmer and Moran left of Starmer who they pick could determine whether their focus is Tory Remainers disillusioned with Boris over Brexit or Labour leftwingers who see Starmer as too centrist
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
Last 30 days -
There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
A lot of the deaths outside of hospital were not assigned as Covid early doors. Look at the big gap in excess deaths at the peak.
The interesting gap is pre-lockdown.
Care homes must have been infected very quickly.
Nursing homes (as well call them) were tip of iceberg out here. A very deadly one. Friend of mine's mom was nursing home due to serious health problems; she caught Covid (and luckily survived) from recovering patients discharged ASAP from hospitals coping with skyrocketing demand on their bed space to deal with rising tide of new cases.
Nurses and other staff were among the casualties. Here as in UK, Italy, Spain, etc. etc. Makes you think when (like me) you're inclined to complain about working conditions when you run low on cold pop & cheese crackers.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
Last 30 days -
There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.
Not what you expect, is it?
Its not.
Care home deaths were at their peak very early on.
I don't think that early spike was care homes, I think it was deaths at home which is when the government panicked and got everyone into hospital, which is also when they kicked out all of the old people back into care homes, which is why we see a prolonged rise and slow fall on non-hospital deaths a couple of weeks later.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
Last 30 days -
There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
A lot of the deaths outside of hospital were not assigned as Covid early doors. Look at the big gap in excess deaths at the peak.
The interesting gap is pre-lockdown.
Care homes must have been infected very quickly.
Nursing homes (as well call them) were tip of iceberg out here. A very deadly one. Friend of mine's mom was nursing home due to serious health problems; she caught Covid (and luckily survived) from recovering patients discharged ASAP from hospitals coping with skyrocketing demand on their bed space to deal with rising tide of new cases.
Nurses and other staff were among the casualties. Here as in UK, Italy, Spain, etc. etc. Makes you think when (like me) you're inclined to complain about working conditions when you run low on cold pop & cheese crackers.
Very well said.
No doubt before long I'll be back to complaining about the quality of the coffee or something trivial - but not this year.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
By underreporting Covid cases and deaths?
I thought the "dickheads" were going to cause second, third and fourth waves, Sandy?
They've extended the tail on the first wave. Let's see what happens since the pubs opened.
Yes. The current round of unshuttering has already been underway for five days, so if it has any more effect than all the previous ones then that ought to become apparent very soon.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
Last 30 days -
There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.
Not what you expect, is it?
Yes, it is.
At the start in March there was a worry that the underprepared hospitals would be overwhelmed and official advice tended to be to stay at home - often until far too late as it turned out, so many died at home.
Around the end of March into early April in the couple of weeks when daily deaths went through the roof, all that was changing and hospitalisation was happening much more quickly, while those transferred in too late were also dying there.
The deaths in hospitals eventually plateaued in the 2nd week in April, but simultaneously the spread into care homes started to cause deaths there, causing the proportion of deaths outside hospital to increase fairly steadily between then and June.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
It's completely backfired if that's the case because now people are too scared to go out despite it being pretty safe in the wider community.
I think it's more likely that there is no data literacy at the top of government and probably not a lot among the top advisors either. I would not have been able to present any of those data slides in good conscience as a scientist (at least technically, given I have a degree in a science).
I don't think its backfired, I think its worked very well. Exceedingly well.
Its only pretty safe in the wider community because people were behaving, so now reporting on figures can be updated and show a commensurate fall in cases and deaths and start reassuring people.
Better our problem of a too well behaved society and the virus dealt with than the situation we see in the States and elsewhere.
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
Didn’t that one have something of an, err, reputation?
On statistical peculiarities, the inclusion of the pillar 2 tests is really going to mess up our view of where the hotspots were. Locations with some level of infections in June are going to top those local authority league tables ultimately, but it will not be true. Leicester will simply not be the hotspot of the entire epidemic, though it will appear so.
I mean, the pillar 2 testing is a brilliant thing, I'm cautiously hopeful that we have near cracked getting a German style response ready for the second wave
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Nah, I reckon your transition period has certainly been extended.
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Swimming in coke might give you a better buzz, or rather, fizz.
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Given Davey is right of Starmer and Moran left of Starmer who they pick could determine whether their focus is Tory Remainers disillusioned with Boris over Brexit or Labour leftwingers who see Starmer as too centrist
No, they're not mad enough to focus on the latter and if they were they would be toast.
Some Labour leftwingers if not the population at large might see Starmer as too centrist. But with the experience of Clegg still salient I've yet to meet one in my local CLP who would ever entertain voting LD. There might be some small leakage of support in polling to the Greens, which has probably happened already in as much as it's going to at all and which would very likely return in a GE. But there would be none at all to the LDs. And we are also talking about a pretty small subset of the population here.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
By underreporting Covid cases and deaths?
I thought the "dickheads" were going to cause second, third and fourth waves, Sandy?
They've extended the tail on the first wave. Let's see what happens since the pubs opened.
Yes. The current round of unshuttering has already been underway for five days, so if it has any more effect than all the previous ones then that ought to become apparent very soon.
111 should be having an uptick right about now if the pub opening has kicked things off again. Five days is mean time for symptoms to appear.
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Swimming in coke might give you a better buzz, or rather, fizz.
Re: cocaine, many moons ago guy gave me a small amount, said give it a try. Did - and ended up with the cleanest doggone apartment I could ever remember. Which was nice, but not quite what I was looking for re: adult recreation.
Re: painting of fish & other denizens of the deep, know painter in Seattle who does nice paintings by purchasing salmon at her local fish market, rolling the fish in paint then pressing it to paper. Then she cleans and eats the fish.
SO what is your technique? AND what kind(s) of amphibian?
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
I used to buy a gram of coke from a guy in a travel office on Carnaby St, then go to the Oasis gym at the bottom of Gower Street, and swim, on coke.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
By the new data we're running at about 500 deaths per week in England and falling, this is good news. On a like for like comparison between reported in a comparable week it was 726 by reporting date vs 576 by date of death.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
Last 30 days -
There's definitely been a bigger fall in hospital deaths than non-hospital deaths. Those look to have stayed fairly consistent.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
Hmmm - if we take Out of Hospital vs Hospital. I'm not seeing a vast difference in the slopes.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
That's recent, I mean from the beginning of the crisis. Hospital deaths had a very high peak which has fallen quite drastically but non-hospital deaths seem to have just rumbled on not falling as quickly.
Non-hospital deaths vs Hospital deaths.
Not what you expect, is it?
Its not.
Care home deaths were at their peak very early on.
I don't think that early spike was care homes, I think it was deaths at home which is when the government panicked and got everyone into hospital, which is also when they kicked out all of the old people back into care homes, which is why we see a prolonged rise and slow fall on non-hospital deaths a couple of weeks later.
But well into April people were being told to stay at home and not call 999.
I remember a PBer asking whether he should call 999 when he was unable to go upstairs.
I don't think the government knew about those March non-hospital deaths, wherever they were, until much, much later.
On statistical peculiarities, the inclusion of the pillar 2 tests is really going to mess up our view of where the hotspots were. Locations with some level of infections in June are going to top those local authority league tables ultimately, but it will not be true. Leicester will simply not be the hotspot of the entire epidemic, though it will appear so.
I mean, the pillar 2 testing is a brilliant thing, I'm cautiously hopeful that we have near cracked getting a German style response ready for the second wave
Doesn't matter. Trump can only pardon federal crimes. Vance is the District Attorney of New York County (coterminous with the Borough of Manhattan) investigating alleged tax fraud against the State of New York. Only the Governor of New York can issue pardons for such crimes.
Does political trajectory of Boris Johnson bear some resemblance to that of Jeremy Corbin?
Both had rather checked careers before winning party leadership, and both scored major general election advances that appeared unattainable only months before.
And both shortly encountered (in BJ's case present tense) very choppy political waters, and sharply diminishing returns from voters increasingly unhappy with their performance.
I've never been a member of a gym and cannot understand why anybody would want to belong to one. I cycle or walk every day whatever the weather for at least an hour and I do a pilates class, once a week - the latter now on Zoom.
Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well
Gyms have a good range of equipment for strength exercises, although I think I've more than half given up on the idea of cultivating a more athletic frame. It was always stupendously hard work, probably more than it was worth. They're also very good if you're a bit nervous of the traffic out and about on the roads, but since the closure of the gyms forced me to go running outside instead I've discovered it's not as hard as I thought to avoid other people and their wretched cars and vans, although they do still get in the way from time to time.
I may give the gym another go once it opens, but I'm not sure that I'll stick with it.
I cycle to and from the gym and do boxing training or intervals. £20ph or 3 for £50, great value
I do boxing also. You would whup me though, I sense.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
Yeah, this is the moment of maximum danger.
The test will be whether we can successfully stamp on any localised spikes before we're back to uncontrolled community spread. 'Whack a mole' isn't a bad analogy.
I used to be a member of the YMCA gym at the bottom of Tottenham Court Road, and is go 10 to 12 times a month to swim at lunchtime. It was excellent value too.
Didn’t that one have something of an, err, reputation?
I was usually the only person in the changing rooms without tattoos...
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
I would have thought a second wave is nailed on... but most likely in Q4 when people are spending less time outside.
Give that it's probably unavoidable, the important thing is to have rigorous processes (local lockdowns, test & trace, etc.) to deal with it when it occurs.
The funny bit about trade is that the US renegotiated NAFTA because it didn't have strong enough level playing field provisions, and we're worrying about a deal with the EU have too strong level playing field provisions.
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
Britain’s leading tax and spending thinktank has criticised the flagship policies in Rishi Sunak’s £30bn summer statement as badly timed, poorly targeted and likely to do little to stop unemployment from rising.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said most of the £9.4bn allocated for the government’s £1,000 job retention bonus scheme – to incentivise employers to take back furloughed staff – would be spent on jobs that were already safe.
It also said tax increases would be required from 2022 onwards to pay for the government’s Covid-19 response, while warning that the government’s budget deficit – the gap between state expenditure and tax revenue – would reach £350bn this year, the highest level in peacetime for 300 years.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
I think it is quite clear that the daily combined cases numbers and death numbers are what has been used in the decision making.
Hence the take a step, pause, take another step, changes.
SCOTUS RULING - HALF OF OKLAHOMA IS "INDIAN COUNTRY"
On Thursday US Supreme Court issued 5-4 ruling (Gorsuch with majority) that lands granted to five "civilized" tribes in eastern Oklahoma in mid-1800s are "Indian country" under terms of treaties of US with Muscogee (Creek), Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, and Seminole Nations.
This decision has MAJOR impact on State of Oklahoma, by seriously curtailing jurisdiction of fed, state & local authorities over Native American across about half the state, including most of Tulsa. At least if & until feds, state & tribes can make a deal and ratify new treaty.
Put THAT in yer pipe and smoke it, Andy Jackson!
"I'm proud to be an Okie from Muskogee A place where even squares can have a ball Where we still hang Old Glory up at the courthouse And white lightin' is the biggest thrill of all."
It makes Putney look like a cancerous growth on the arse of Britain.
I feel bad for the Tory candidate there. It was a big GE win for the team, but if at least a few other places had gone against the grain it would be easier to blame local factors (which I'm sure were in play), but being literally the only place where Labour made a gain probably stands out when you apply for another crack at the gig.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
I would have thought a second wave is nailed on... but most likely in Q4 when people are spending less time outside.
Give that it's probably unavoidable, the important thing is to have rigorous processes (local lockdowns, test & trace, etc.) to deal with it when it occurs.
The following tells a tale - it is combined Pillar 1 & 2 testing across England.
Very large areas where the pattern lots of 0s with 1s and 2s thrown in.
COVID19 will still be there even after the Leciesters etc are dealt with.
There was a header article on PB a couple of weeeks ago, pointing out that the president can pardon someone from future crimes and court cases. As rpjs said this only covers federal crimes though.
Many months have come and gone Since I wandered from my home In those Oklahoma Hills where I was born Many a page of life has turned Many a lesson I have learned Yet I feel like in those hills, I still belong
Way down yonder in the Indian nation I rode my pony on the reservation In the Oklahoma Hills where I was born
A-way down yonder in the Indian nation A cowboy's life is my occupation In the Oklahoma Hills where I born
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
I can see why people might come to that conclusion.
How many of the public have bothered to do what I did this week and look at the NHS England’s own spreadsheet? This revealed that the amount of under 60s with no pre-existing conditions who had died from Covid totals 290 or so.
Britain’s leading tax and spending thinktank has criticised the flagship policies in Rishi Sunak’s £30bn summer statement as badly timed, poorly targeted and likely to do little to stop unemployment from rising.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said most of the £9.4bn allocated for the government’s £1,000 job retention bonus scheme – to incentivise employers to take back furloughed staff – would be spent on jobs that were already safe.
It also said tax increases would be required from 2022 onwards to pay for the government’s Covid-19 response, while warning that the government’s budget deficit – the gap between state expenditure and tax revenue – would reach £350bn this year, the highest level in peacetime for 300 years.
Organisations like the IFS don’t get it because they are too narrowly focused
This is an existential situation. A bit of deadweight cost really doesn’t matter. And neither does the deficit. You fix the problem and then you figure out how to pay for it
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
I can see why people might come to that conclusion.
How many of the public have bothered to do what I did this week and look at the NHS England’s own spreadsheet? This revealed that the amount of under 60s with no pre-existing conditions who had died from Covid totals 290 or so.
I send my table of cases in England to people - they are staggered. Where's the COVID19?
One chap has been cowering at home, convinced that end times are coming. In West Oxfordshire.....
Britain’s leading tax and spending thinktank has criticised the flagship policies in Rishi Sunak’s £30bn summer statement as badly timed, poorly targeted and likely to do little to stop unemployment from rising.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said most of the £9.4bn allocated for the government’s £1,000 job retention bonus scheme – to incentivise employers to take back furloughed staff – would be spent on jobs that were already safe.
It also said tax increases would be required from 2022 onwards to pay for the government’s Covid-19 response, while warning that the government’s budget deficit – the gap between state expenditure and tax revenue – would reach £350bn this year, the highest level in peacetime for 300 years.
Organisations like the IFS don’t get it because they are too narrowly focused
This is an existential situation. A bit of deadweight cost really doesn’t matter. And neither does the deficit. You fix the problem and then you figure out how to pay for it
'Well, let me give you an illustration: Suppose my neighbor's home catches fire, and I have a length of garden hose four or five hundred feet away. If he can take my garden hose and connect it up with his hydrant, I may help him to put out his fire. Now, what do I do? I don't say to him before that operation, "Neighbor, my garden hose cost me $15; you have to pay me $15 for it." What is the transaction that goes on? I don't want $15--I want my garden hose back after the fire is over. All right. If it goes through the fire all right, intact, without any damage to it, he gives it back to me and thanks me very much for the use of it. But suppose it gets smashed up--holes in it--during the fire; we don't have to have too much formality about it, but I say to him, "I was glad to lend you that hose; I see I can't use it any more, it's all smashed up." He says, "How many feet of it were there?" I tell him, "There were 150 feet of it." He says, "All right, I will replace it." Now, if I get a nice garden hose back, I am in pretty good shape.'
SCOTUS RULING - HALF OF OKLAHOMA IS "INDIAN COUNTRY"
On Thursday US Supreme Court issued 5-4 ruling (Gorsuch with majority) that lands granted to five "civilized" tribes in eastern Oklahoma in mid-1800s are "Indian country" under terms of treaties of US with Muscogee (Creek), Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, and Seminole Nations.
This decision has MAJOR impact on State of Oklahoma, by seriously curtailing jurisdiction of fed, state & local authorities over Native American across about half the state, including most of Tulsa. At least if & until feds, state & tribes can make a deal and ratify new treaty.
Put THAT in yer pipe and smoke it, Andy Jackson!
"I'm proud to be an Okie from Muskogee A place where even squares can have a ball Where we still hang Old Glory up at the courthouse And white lightin' is the biggest thrill of all."
After the way the Indians were stripped of their lands and cheated by the white folks, it's about time things went their way. The eastern band of the Cherokees got their revenge on the white folks by opening casinos on their land
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
I think if we'd been getting this data set from the start the whole conversation would have been framed differently and the government would have a much better rating, it really looks much more as though the early decision making was very bad but it's been a lot better since then. On the reporting date data set it makes it feel like all of the measures the government has put in place haven't made enough of a difference, but we're down to around 50-70 all settings deaths per day and falling despite many days seeing well over 100 deaths being reported. I also think if we'd had this series earlier on we'd have been able to spot the disaster in carehomes much earlier and the public clamour for action would have been more intense.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
I, quite seriously, wonder if the presentation of the statistics has been an attempt to frighten people into behaving.
I can see why people might come to that conclusion.
How many of the public have bothered to do what I did this week and look at the NHS England’s own spreadsheet? This revealed that the amount of under 60s with no pre-existing conditions who had died from Covid totals 290 or so.
I send my table of cases in England to people - they are staggered. Where's the COVID19?
One chap has been cowering at home, convinced that end times are coming. In West Oxfordshire.....
It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so tragic - my strong sense is that most of the public believe the risk ratios to be orders of magnitude higher than they are. Which is understandable to some degree given the way the shrieking media have whipped up fear of this thing.
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
I have had similar conversations.
The party of the idle and the beggar. Good luck with that one.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
I would have thought a second wave is nailed on... but most likely in Q4 when people are spending less time outside.
Give that it's probably unavoidable, the important thing is to have rigorous processes (local lockdowns, test & trace, etc.) to deal with it when it occurs.
The following tells a tale - it is combined Pillar 1 & 2 testing across England.
Very large areas where the pattern lots of 0s with 1s and 2s thrown in.
COVID19 will still be there even after the Leciesters etc are dealt with.
Very interesting thanks - those numbers represent the positive tests in each locality in each day, I take it?
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
I have had similar conversations.
The party of the idle and the beggar. Good luck with that one.
Thankfully the Corbynites have been slung out, although I know it’s hard for the PB Tories to accept.
Oh my, it's as if someone at PHE finally listened, we're getting by death date statistics in the new dashboard. The position is actually much, much better than we thought, the daily deaths seem to be around 70 per day and falling in England.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
This comes as no surprise: the ratio of hospital to non-hospital deaths implied by the NHS England stats has looked completely out of whack for a while. I've been assuming that PHE have been reporting a lot of historic cases very late.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
After what looked like a chaotic ending of lockdown, it seems like Johnson dodged the bullet and the second wave never arrived. On that score at least hats off to Boris, although I think luck might have been a more important driver than judgement.
Far, far too early to say we’ve avoided a second wave. If cases are like this in December then I’ll agree.
I would have thought a second wave is nailed on... but most likely in Q4 when people are spending less time outside.
Give that it's probably unavoidable, the important thing is to have rigorous processes (local lockdowns, test & trace, etc.) to deal with it when it occurs.
The following tells a tale - it is combined Pillar 1 & 2 testing across England.
Very large areas where the pattern lots of 0s with 1s and 2s thrown in.
COVID19 will still be there even after the Leciesters etc are dealt with.
Very interesting thanks - those numbers represent the positive tests in each locality in each day, I take it?
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
The party of the idle and the beggar.
Thank goodness, I've been looking for somwehere i belong.
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
I have had similar conversations.
The party of the idle and the beggar. Good luck with that one.
Thankfully the Corbynites have been slung out, although I know it’s hard for the PB Tories to accept.
If you buy into the Expanse/Dolist "DuQuesne Plan" view of the future - the rich own the machines, the poor own their socks and nothing in between - then perhaps it is a natural idea...
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
I have had similar conversations.
The party of the idle and the beggar. Good luck with that one.
Lumpers and folks at risk of joining legion of the lost are more likely to support CONSERVATIVE politics than socialism, the left-wing kind anyway. So said Marx & so says recent experience from Budapest to the Bosphorus.
The working classes in Europe and North America have been voting with their feet AGAINST socialism as well as non-socialist liberal progressive politics for a generation. With some of the last to fall being rural and/or rust-belt bastions on periphery of modern global culture, economy & society.
Ranks of center-left parties have been replenished & expanded by new recruits such as new immigrants from foreign lands but also by increasing numbers of better-educated, higher-income middle-class voters.
As for socialism so proclaimed, to whatever degree and for whichever sect, it is of limited appeal in US, Canada & UK, and doing a vanish act in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etc., etc. Whatever the moral/social/economic potential of Bernie-Sanders-Jeremy-Corbyn-Socialism, the political "benefits" are almost all negatory.
May be that new ethos will arise, but will HAVE to be on fundamentally different basis.
I don't know that I've ever used the expression working class except in online poltical arguments. I do know a few people who do use the expression, but it seems almost an obsession for some, both revered and condescended to.
One Corbynite I talked with said that the new base of the party should be the non-working class. He genuinely thought that the future would be increasing masses of unemployed.
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
The party of the idle and the beggar.
Thank goodness, I've been looking for somwehere i belong.
I have this plan - we enlist the poor and unemployable in the army. The army will then be strong enough to conquer anything. We pay the army with what they conquer.
This will give the head count something useful to do. And make us the greatest empire on earth.
Kerala has the biggest jump in the last two weeks and two of the largest in the last month even if Bihar has seen the biggest jump among Hindus only.
(I have no idea whether the above is true, I just thought I’d save HY a job)
The point is in relation to India even if it has cases per head at or even above the global average it will always have deaths per head well below the global average because it has so few over 70s percentage wise and very few over 80s and an average life expentancy under 70.
Hence while India has 576 cases per million it also has only 16 deaths per million, a death rate of 2% compared to a global average of 1, 586 cases per million and 71.4 deaths per million, a death rate of 4.5%.
In western countries like the UK however where we have an above average life expectancy we have had 4,236 cases per million and 657 deaths per million, a death rate of 15.5% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
SCOTUS RULING - HALF OF OKLAHOMA IS "INDIAN COUNTRY"
On Thursday US Supreme Court issued 5-4 ruling (Gorsuch with majority) that lands granted to five "civilized" tribes in eastern Oklahoma in mid-1800s are "Indian country" under terms of treaties of US with Muscogee (Creek), Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, and Seminole Nations.
This decision has MAJOR impact on State of Oklahoma, by seriously curtailing jurisdiction of fed, state & local authorities over Native American across about half the state, including most of Tulsa. At least if & until feds, state & tribes can make a deal and ratify new treaty.
Put THAT in yer pipe and smoke it, Andy Jackson!
"I'm proud to be an Okie from Muskogee A place where even squares can have a ball Where we still hang Old Glory up at the courthouse And white lightin' is the biggest thrill of all."
After the way the Indians were stripped of their lands and cheated by the white folks, it's about time things went their way. The eastern band of the Cherokees got their revenge on the white folks by opening casinos on their land
In both GA & WA, tribes have taken big hit due to closed (though many reopened) casinos and shuttered fireworks stands (certainly much less firecracker activity out here this year than in living memory).
Here in WA tribes had VERY specific treaty rights to fish in accustomed ways & waters. Which were disrespected and outlawed just as soon it suited White people's convenience & profits. So they had to fight for decades to win back their rights with protests, arrests, injunctions, convictions, court cases. Can remember how Marlon Brando was mocked for joining with the Indians led by Billy Frank and Bob Satiacum, lending his tremendous celebrity to their cause.
The result: Native Americans gained right to ONE-HALF the total WA State annual fish harvest. AND seems only right for Native Americans to gain "Indian Country" status in one-half of Oklahoma - the half that was former the "Indian Territory".
Comments
Care home deaths were at their peak very early on.
They (Total Fitness) have been shut since mid March, in that time my membership tie-in has ticked along without me having to pay. I've run outside a lot, I've got heavily into cycling. And at this time of year it's glorious, but once the weather turns and the daylight hours shorten is when the gym comes into it's own.
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1281319499438923785
South Africa reported thirteen THOUSAND new cases, today
They rightly said no, my LibDem friends forgave the lapse and welcomed me back, and this afternoon I nominated Ed Davey for the leadership. I can cope with Layla if she win a, but it would be a terrible mistake.
The LibDems cannot try to tack one side or the other of Labour. We need to be a distinct alternative, and we have to take the good ideas wherever they come from (as Labour and the Tories have shamelessly done in the past) and not apologise for doing so. Ed Davey can do that and I hope can start the hard work of rebuilding the party one street at a time.
Whenever I have moved on from a work role I have always pointed to my successor where he has heap blame in my direction if needed. Davey should do the same. The bad bits of the coalition? Blame the Tories and the idiot savant Clegg. The good bits, that was us. Me.
To this day, I have no idea why, swimming on coke wasn't especially enjoyable
My fellow lesbian painters-of-amphibians would be shocked to hear my past life, which I only disclose on this website
Nurses and other staff were among the casualties. Here as in UK, Italy, Spain, etc. etc. Makes you think when (like me) you're inclined to complain about working conditions when you run low on cold pop & cheese crackers.
No doubt before long I'll be back to complaining about the quality of the coffee or something trivial - but not this year.
At the start in March there was a worry that the underprepared hospitals would be overwhelmed and official advice tended to be to stay at home - often until far too late as it turned out, so many died at home.
Around the end of March into early April in the couple of weeks when daily deaths went through the roof, all that was changing and hospitalisation was happening much more quickly, while those transferred in too late were also dying there.
The deaths in hospitals eventually plateaued in the 2nd week in April, but simultaneously the spread into care homes started to cause deaths there, causing the proportion of deaths outside hospital to increase fairly steadily between then and June.
Serious question: can a president pre-pardon himself for when he leaves office?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/09/trump-supreme-court-tax-returns-lloyd-green
P/S They got Al Capone on taxes.
Its only pretty safe in the wider community because people were behaving, so now reporting on figures can be updated and show a commensurate fall in cases and deaths and start reassuring people.
Better our problem of a too well behaved society and the virus dealt with than the situation we see in the States and elsewhere.
I mean, the pillar 2 testing is a brilliant thing, I'm cautiously hopeful that we have near cracked getting a German style response ready for the second wave
"80.9% of [Care Home] residents who tested positive were asymptomatic"
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vivaldi-1-coronavirus-covid-19-care-homes-study-report/vivaldi-1-covid-19-care-homes-study-report
Some Labour leftwingers if not the population at large might see Starmer as too centrist. But with the experience of Clegg still salient I've yet to meet one in my local CLP who would ever entertain voting LD. There might be some small leakage of support in polling to the Greens, which has probably happened already in as much as it's going to at all and which would very likely return in a GE. But there would be none at all to the LDs. And we are also talking about a pretty small subset of the population here.
Re: painting of fish & other denizens of the deep, know painter in Seattle who does nice paintings by purchasing salmon at her local fish market, rolling the fish in paint then pressing it to paper. Then she cleans and eats the fish.
SO what is your technique? AND what kind(s) of amphibian?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D01mdGW9-Zg
I remember a PBer asking whether he should call 999 when he was unable to go upstairs.
I don't think the government knew about those March non-hospital deaths, wherever they were, until much, much later.
https://twitter.com/post_liberal/status/1281319188276092942?s=20
https://www.ft.com/content/124dd4f4-8a0b-11ea-9dcb-fe6871f4145a
Both had rather checked careers before winning party leadership, and both scored major general election advances that appeared unattainable only months before.
And both shortly encountered (in BJ's case present tense) very choppy political waters, and sharply diminishing returns from voters increasingly unhappy with their performance.
But of course they know best.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/the-coronavirus-slayer-how-keralas-rock-star-health-minister-helped-save-it-from-covid-19
https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1280942484454092801?s=20
Oops!
Just like in movie "Independence Day" but WITHOUT any leadership from Uncle Sam or anyone else.
Give that it's probably unavoidable, the important thing is to have rigorous processes (local lockdowns, test & trace, etc.) to deal with it when it occurs.
Whereas there may be big clusters of asymptomatic cases in the general population which have never be discovered.
A world beating brace of intelligence, espionage and cyber experts.
We live in an age where we care about the former, and it results in a lower latter.
Alaska in play, Biden only 3% behind.
PPP Jul 7-8th.
Reposts this for all the good it will do: https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/16/rewards-for-failure/
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said most of the £9.4bn allocated for the government’s £1,000 job retention bonus scheme – to incentivise employers to take back furloughed staff – would be spent on jobs that were already safe.
It also said tax increases would be required from 2022 onwards to pay for the government’s Covid-19 response, while warning that the government’s budget deficit – the gap between state expenditure and tax revenue – would reach £350bn this year, the highest level in peacetime for 300 years.
Hence the take a step, pause, take another step, changes.
On Thursday US Supreme Court issued 5-4 ruling (Gorsuch with majority) that lands granted to five "civilized" tribes in eastern Oklahoma in mid-1800s are "Indian country" under terms of treaties of US with Muscogee (Creek), Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, and Seminole Nations.
This decision has MAJOR impact on State of Oklahoma, by seriously curtailing jurisdiction of fed, state & local authorities over Native American across about
half the state, including most of Tulsa. At least if & until feds, state & tribes can make a deal and ratify new treaty.
Put THAT in yer pipe and smoke it, Andy Jackson!
"I'm proud to be an Okie from Muskogee
A place where even squares can have a ball
Where we still hang Old Glory up at the courthouse
And white lightin' is the biggest thrill of all."
Very large areas where the pattern lots of 0s with 1s and 2s thrown in.
COVID19 will still be there even after the Leciesters etc are dealt with.
Woody Guthrie
Many months have come and gone
Since I wandered from my home
In those Oklahoma Hills where I was born
Many a page of life has turned
Many a lesson I have learned
Yet I feel like in those hills, I still belong
Way down yonder in the Indian nation
I rode my pony on the reservation
In the Oklahoma Hills where I was born
A-way down yonder in the Indian nation
A cowboy's life is my occupation
In the Oklahoma Hills where I born
The workers were the new rich, according to him....
Then again, maybe he'd watched too much of the Expanse.
How many of the public have bothered to do what I did this week and look at the NHS England’s own spreadsheet? This revealed that the amount of under 60s with no pre-existing conditions who had died from Covid totals 290 or so.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1281280003280457729?s=20
This is an existential situation. A bit of deadweight cost really doesn’t matter. And neither does the deficit. You fix the problem and then you figure out how to pay for it
One chap has been cowering at home, convinced that end times are coming. In West Oxfordshire.....
You should write for the National Tourist Board . . . of Ireland!
The party of the idle and the beggar. Good luck with that one.
Kerala has the biggest jump in the last two weeks and two of the largest in the last month even if Bihar has seen the biggest jump among Hindus only.
(I have no idea whether the above is true, I just thought I’d save HY a job)
The working classes in Europe and North America have been voting with their feet AGAINST socialism as well as non-socialist liberal progressive politics for a generation. With some of the last to fall being rural and/or rust-belt bastions on periphery of modern global culture, economy & society.
Ranks of center-left parties have been replenished & expanded by new recruits such as new immigrants from foreign lands but also by increasing numbers of better-educated, higher-income middle-class voters.
As for socialism so proclaimed, to whatever degree and for whichever sect, it is of limited appeal in US, Canada & UK, and doing a vanish act in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etc., etc. Whatever the moral/social/economic potential of Bernie-Sanders-Jeremy-Corbyn-Socialism, the political "benefits" are almost all negatory.
May be that new ethos will arise, but will HAVE to be on fundamentally different basis.
This will give the head count something useful to do. And make us the greatest empire on earth.
What could go wrong?
Signed - G. Marius
Hence while India has 576 cases per million it also has only 16 deaths per million, a death rate of 2% compared to a global average of 1, 586 cases per million and 71.4 deaths per million, a death rate of 4.5%.
In western countries like the UK however where we have an above average life expectancy we have had 4,236 cases per million and 657 deaths per million, a death rate of 15.5%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Here in WA tribes had VERY specific treaty rights to fish in accustomed ways & waters. Which were disrespected and outlawed just as soon it suited White people's convenience & profits. So they had to fight for decades to win back their rights with protests, arrests, injunctions, convictions, court cases. Can remember how Marlon Brando was mocked for joining with the Indians led by Billy Frank and Bob Satiacum, lending his tremendous celebrity to their cause.
The result: Native Americans gained right to ONE-HALF the total WA State annual fish harvest. AND seems only right for Native Americans to gain "Indian Country" status in one-half of Oklahoma - the half that was former the "Indian Territory".