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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite
The latest chart of the Betdata.io LD leadership market shows that Davey is now the clear favourite on 57% with Moran trailing on 41%.
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FPT: Cut price off-peak memberships are there to earn a bit of extra revenue from pensioners, by getting them to come along during the working day when it's very quiet. They've little if anything to do with regulating demand.
Most people go before or after work because those are the only convenient times to do so. The gyms cannot, therefore, finesse the large reductions in capacity inherent in the social distancing and obsessive cleaning regimes they're being obliged to adopt simply by bribing half of their members not to come during peak hours (even if they could afford those losses, which by-and-large they cannot.)
If half the gyms and leisure centres that we had in January are still open in December then we'll be doing well. A chunk of their clientele won't come back because they're too scared, another group won't return because they've found out that going running or cycling outside is more enjoyable and/or cheaper, a third group will cancel their memberships because they've been sacked or are afraid of it and a fourth (especially if they go home by public transport or on foot) will be turned right off because the changing rooms and showers are shuttered and they have to trudge back sweaty. Out of those determined enough to set foot in a gym again, another lot will quickly be deterred if their workout is wrecked by half the equipment being roped off, or if they keep getting interrupted by constant rotational cleaning.
Gyms have already lost more than three months worth of revenue and are going to find the new trading environment very tough going indeed: it's hard to see many of these facilities being profitable in the short to medium term. Prime candidates for survival are larger premises owned rather than rented by gym operators, and leisure centres run by that fraction of councils not in imminent danger of going bankrupt. The rest of them are, I would suggest, in serious trouble.
It'll be great for the Lib Dems and Labour to be led by knights, whilst the Tories are led by a cad, bounder, and relative roué.
Mostly in January each year, after the new customers have spend an entire fortnight on the sofa eating and drinking.
We should keep an eye on how this develops over the next couple of weeks and then compare it to the hospital data series we already have. It looks to me as though care home deaths are still really awful.
Equally normally, I vote for the activists’ candidate, but I must be getting old, having this time just nominated the establishment candidate.
For anyone interested in politics as a youngster, the slow drawn out process of coming to realise that life is shorter than you anticipated and change takes longer than you anticipated is, I guess, at least educational.
They are convinced austerity made Covid-19 worse and Ed Davey's past will taint him.
I was with the dog at our weekly agility class earlier, and the trainer was saying she’s lost about 20% of her clients following resumption after the lockdown. Her conclusion was that a lot of people are still frightened about any sort of group activity, but my guess is that a fair few of them were people who wanted to drop out anyway, for whom not coming back after an extended break was easier than suddenly telling her they no longer wanted to come along.
Not as bad as we thought still equals pretty ghastly, but it does represent a measure of improvement all the same.
Glad to hear you're still running, are you training for anything in particular? I have never felt fitter in my life, I'm running 30 miles a week now. Also adding some bodyweight stuff, simple things like press-ups and pull-ups, just to keep the health up.
Hope you have a lovely time out of town, it is good to get out and it has definitely helped me, mental health wise.
Yup mostly all good, just trying to find a new place to rent in London but lots of places becoming available now.
Getting outdoors is good for your mental health as well
I went to the gym for a while, never got a lot out of it but each to their own.
Perhaps this explains why they went out of their way to depose the last Lib Dem leader who sparked any real enthusiasm among UKers in general, or even LDs in particular?
This must be some sort of record!
Hat. Coat.
We finally have a more complete dataset that makes sense. Bravo to PHE for listening.
The second gym I joined was across the road from the town hall where I was a councillor, and when I paid up I imagined myself nipping across the road between meetings and coming back fit and healthy. But it seemed that the hassle of taking my kit across the road and showering and returning across the road was standing in the way, and after a couple of years I decided to stop paying for nothing.
The third gym that I joined was in the basement of my office, and I imagined myself popping downstairs at lunchtimes and returning to my desk fit and healthy. Actually I kept this up for longer than the previous two times, largely because I got into the habit of going down mid afternoon when the gym was empty and I would otherwise have been working. But eventually the hassle of taking my kit back and forth from home to work and washing it in between started to stand in the way, and eventually I decided to stop paying for nothing.
At this point I concluded that actually going to the gym was the problem and the solution appeared obvious; buy an exercise bike and some gym equipment and put it in the spare bedroom of my new house. Spending hundreds of pounds clicking to buy the stuff on Amazon really made me feel good, and I imagined myself exercising regularly at home, smugly congratulating myself on not having to pay an annual fee to a gym.
But that didn’t really work either, except to stem my monthly financial outgoings. The bike and other stuff is still in the spare bedroom looking surprisingly new given how long ago I bought it all.
The solution is to get a dog. He doesn’t take no for an answer.
30 miles is some going - this week I did 30km, last week 40km, but I'm no longer particularly young so I'm afraid if I go for it too hard I'll do myself a mischief (I was last injured about a month ago.) I would like to have a crack at a half-marathon, in whichever year races resume again, I've managed it once in training and am sure I can work up to it again. I've got a book about bodyweight exercises but can't summon the enthusiasm to do them; I'll probably give the gym a go when it opens back up again, but I suspect that I'll find it awful and jack in my membership.
Going up to Cambridge is going to feel liberating, and based on what I've learned about the Covid situation on here and elsewhere I think it should be pretty safe. Bedfordshire and Peterborough have both been whacked pretty hard by the virus but North Herts and South Cambs got off more lightly and are well past the worst of it. I shall be helping the economy with purchases of household stuff and I may go to the running shop and get a pair of shoes for going up tracks, as mine are really only meant for the road.
Good luck with your househunting; do you think Covid is having a useful (i.e. downwards) effect on prices there? The press is replete with stories of Londoners looking to flee at the moment.
Reckon that today's 7-2 SCOTUS decision kicks one leg out from under this 3-legged stool. SO will this effect either 2020 result OR betting re: same?
Methinks impact on actual result marginal, though of course yet another cut to the quick for The Donald. As for betting, that's YOUR call.
He failed to send off Frank Lampard for a foul that broke Xabi Alonso's ankle and kept him out for nearly four months but the 'highlight' was when Carvalho blatantly handled the in the penalty box, Mike Riley put the whistle in his mouth then didn't give the penalty.
Jamie Carragher kept on screaming 'You put the fucking whistle in your mouth you fucking cheat', alternating cheat with another c word for the rest of the match.
https://twitter.com/mc_of_a/status/1281312835235168262?s=21
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHMsWdRlGwo
I may give the gym another go once it opens, but I'm not sure that I'll stick with it.
These make excellent coat racks and clothes hangers.
The reporting day to death date comparison is the most interesting one, it shows a much better picture of where we are as a country than reporting date and that picture is much better than I was expecting it to be.
More positively, been to a pub for a meal and drink tonight. Very well organised and surprisingly busy for a very wet Thursday night.
Anyway, if this hasn't caused any trouble then we ought to be alright until the schools come back, which is the last major hurdle. If that doesn't collapse the pack of cards then, relative to what it's spent so far, the Government can prop up the theatres, nightclubs and spectator sports out of its loose change until they feel that it's sufficiently safe to unshutter them.
The big question then would be whether or not the dreaded second wave materialises in Winter, because colder conditions help the virus to survive, other Winter illnesses help it to spread, or both.
The previous graph was Everything (including hospital) vs Hospital.
The whole reporting of COVID statistics in the UK has been a disaster, from the running 7 day average in the official slides to the "number of tests" being some odd combination of how many swabs are taken or processed there has been a complete breakdown in data communication which has made everything much more difficult than it needs to be.
Whilst that is the situation we aren't out of the woods by a long chalk.
The underlying problems perhaps being a combo of the 'experts' not wanting to provide data to outsiders and politicians not being interested in the details.
Kane had a nailed on pen not awarded earlier after a VAR check, they might as well not bother with it. So bad
The ideal is to combine 30 vigorous daily minutes of this WITH a nice daily green stroll in the park, countryside, on the riverbank, etc. A balm to the soul.
Not what you expect, is it?
Also, check your vanilla mail.
Care homes must have been infected very quickly.
I think it's more likely that there is no data literacy at the top of government and probably not a lot among the top advisors either. I would not have been able to present any of those data slides in good conscience as a scientist (at least technically, given I have a degree in a science).