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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds Brits more ready consider traveling overseas than foreigners ready to come to the UK
Given the current Covid19 figures for the UK then it is hardly surprising that Brits are more inclined to consider travelling to other countries than those who live there want to come here.
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It's just as bad as those who seem to have an obsession with Rachel Riley or JK Rowling. They need to get out more and get a grip.
Excellent.
It had been largely expected that people would start to resume old habits once facilities were unlocked, but, so far at least, that's not happening on anything like the level anticipated. If this doesn't start to change, with an explosion of better weather and the advent of August as the beginning of a traditional spending splurge, we could be in for some very rocky times indeed ahead.
The whole debate is completely facile.
The reality is the health crisis is going away in this country now which brings the economic crisis as the next step until people accept the health crisis has gone.
Thankfully we aren't like in America.
Much of this will survive as domestic tourism benefits from Brits staycationing.
But much of this will also go. Foreign tourists are crucial to London, in particular.
It's going to be carnage, unless we get a vaccine/treatments very soon. We could see 15% unemployment and a wartime-scale deficit. Britain will be like Greece after the Great Recession, except worse, because the whole world will be in a slump, as demand crashes everywhere.
Ah well. Ben Stokes is still in. I think.
1) Fear of getting the disease (or spreading it to someone you care about).
2) Financial considerations (or the fear of finances getting worse)
3) Lots of city centres are banning cars (Manchester and York in particular) so bars and restaurants can add outdoor seating. So the option of getting out means parking a few miles out of the city centre or use public transport.
Summer hot weather might turn out to be very important in changing the economic psychology if we escape the worst end of predictions ; it makes sitting in the house continually almost insufferable, for a start, but it also tends to prime people into a more optimistic, outgoing and less risk-averse mood.
Really there's no reason not to change this at all. Its just simple decency this one.
Headline - 22
7 days - 17
Yesterday 4
Last 3-5 days subject to revision. Last 5 days included for completeness.
It really seems to matter to you though and you should probably have a think why.
How long is this economically sustainable? A few weeks at most.Then parts of the city will start closing down, for good.
The sadness that follows the happiness when you order something wonderful and then discover it is going to be delivered either by Yodel or Hermes.
Some specific businesses will do well. Holiday lets in places like Cornwall. London hotels and restaurants will close down and not reopen.
More generally, I suspect that the concerns indicated in this YouGov poll might dissipate quite quickly, if people start to hear of their friends and neighbours going out without ill effect.
Meanwhile, tonight I'm attending a virtual black-tie* livery dinner, hosted on Zoom, complete with a meal delivered by the caterers to participants' homes, virtual tables so we can chat in groups, toasts, the beadle conducting the whole affair, etc etc. It sounds completely wacky. I shall report back...
* I presume this phrase is still allowed?
I don't think this is useful at all. The more pertinent stat is that 80% of French who would consider coming here won't because of COVID-19. The equivalent figure for Brits thinking of going to France is 66%. So there is a gap, but it's perhaps not quite as dramatic as the figures cited above.
You get maximum points for potting the black, but do the same to the white and you get punished
First - we have spent years sending signals that we do not want people to come here - Brexit, Boris's UKIP-lite Party, COVID cockups, etc. Are we really surprised at having succeeded?
Secondly - restarting the economy - for some people, the fear factor has been instilled into them so effectively that they are actually afraid to go out or interact with others. One man I know treats people like they have Ebola. He will not, under any circumstances, go with 3 or 4 metres of other people. I have seen him walk back the way he came and wait in a garden or doorway until other people go away. He is not the only one. I spoke to a rather nervous lady who was at the supermarket for the first time in 3 months because they had ate all the "stockpile". She was buying the next stockpile...
Common decency doesn't require a legal instrument.
I love DPD. I'd rather DPD than the Royal Mail, its my favourite one to get a delivery from. Their live tracking is fantastic.
Next year Q2?
There could be an epidemic of a virus with a high mortality rate. Even worse, suddenly astronomers could find a comet is going to hit the Earth in six months time and that will end civilization and there is nothing we can do about it. Disasters are inevitable and it is only a matter of time before the next one comes.
However our society is just not geared up to cope with major disasters. If the comet does hit and we are not extinct, civilization will return within a few thousand years. In the present day, things will get better but they could get worse first.
France, Spain, Italy and the UK are all expected to suffer a GDP contraction of ~10% this year.
For comparison, the UK economy shrank by ~6% in the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The only real comparison is a war/another plague. UK GDP dwindled by ~10% from 1919-1921
Greece's policy is to randomly test arrivals and, if they are found to be positive, to send them for 14 days to a "Quarantine Hotel".
So the gamble is go, test negative, have holiday all good; or go, test positive, not only not have holiday but be banged up in some Greek run hostel with food shoved under your door for two weeks.
Would you roll the dice?
Given the BLM people seem to think the complete opposite, do you think they were right to say so?
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/enoch-powell-speech-bbc-radio-4-how-wrong-he-was-a8303416.html
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/british-public-proved-enoch-powell-wrong-low-bar-jump
So I had packages delivered by people I vaguely knew, from the back of Tesla X. Housewives making money after the school run....
"We want to go on holiday. We don't want foreigners bringing in cases of the disease."
This is strangely reminiscent of the shock polling on the last thread which reveals people support tax cuts that do apply to them, and tax rises which do not.
But oh god yes. Gives White Van Man a whole new, er, complexion!!
I read many years ago when the FBI were tracking a white supremacist group they used to refer to the title of the book as a euphemism for assaulting African Americans.
I know this is more difficult than tinkering around the edges but surely it's the most sustainable solution.
We may do a week in Scotland to see my brother & his lot. If the borders are open! This year is a write off for so many things and holidays abroad is no exception (albeit we were in Spain for February half term).
I guess millions are doing the same, which will alter how the economy works at least in the short term.
Hard for the government to change from, stay at home, be safe.
To get out and spend to safe the economy.
For many a tenner of your meal , is not worth the risk.
Regardless I wouldn't gamble with flying 3 hours to be banged up in a Greek hostel for two weeks.